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On January 10 2014 14:12 Balla24 wrote:
Do you know something that we don't? At this point in town as town we assume that there is no SK, that's all there is to it. The only way you would know if there was an SK at this point is:
1. You are the SK.
2. You are mafia and your KP got blocked but SK's went through.
Here is what I know:
On January 09 2014 08:03 chinstrap wrote:
TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
3/6 scenarios have an SK. I don't know there is an SK, but I don't know that there is no SK. So I really disagree with "At this point in town as town we assume that there is no SK, that's all there is to it. " Why on earth should town assume that? Because the SK didn't kill the first night?
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OBWOP
That should be "Because there was one presumed vig kill, one presumed scum kill, and zero presumed SK kill the first night?"
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This is the assumption that we play at AT THIS CURRENT MOMENT.
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There is no evidence pointing to an SK, so I find it really really weird that you are even considering it at this point.
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Especially cause:
1. We've already discussed it.
2. It's pretty obvious.
I almost view that as a slip.
There's always 50% chance AT the beginning of the game. Right now there is way less chance.
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Eish... this was bad play by me. Sorry if i just fucked up like i think I did.
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I guess we just disagree here.
On January 10 2014 14:20 Balla24 wrote:
There is no evidence pointing to an SK, so I find it really really weird that you are even considering it at this point.
So if we have an SK, they are at least half-way competent at lying low. I don't count lack of evidence for an SK as evidence against an SK.
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On January 10 2014 14:29 Balla24 wrote:
Eish... this was bad play by me. Sorry if i just fucked up like i think I did.
Well ... I don't see it myself :/
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Ok, doesn't seem like what I thought i just did. Regardless, this is pointless to even bring up right now. Yo usaid it yourself, scum lynching is more important than sk lynching.
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On January 10 2014 14:33 Day_Walker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2014 14:29 Balla24 wrote:
Eish... this was bad play by me. Sorry if i just fucked up like i think I did. Well ... I don't see it myself :/
Good, cause the 3rd reason that I forgot to mention is:
You are a town role that knows something is up with the KP because you interfered with it. That's obviously not the case though ^_^
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Who would you lynch other than dnyarri
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OK 
About your previous question, I think the only two people who don't look better after the night are OWB and BigDad. I reread both of their filters, and the only thing that really pops out is that OWB keeps going after what in my read is a confirmed town (aka me). On the other hand, OWB's vote on dnyarri makes it unlikely that both OWB scum and dnyarri scum. That leaves BigDad ... doesn't seem like a very strong option to me. So I guess I need to look at all the instances of town cred gain and think about how plausible it is that a scum got away with each one. Anyway I'm happy with the dnyarri lynch, it looks like that is going to happen, and that will give is more concrete info to go on.
And to make it official
## Vote: dnyarri
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How could you miss that bigdad also has a vote on dnyarri..
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Like both of your scum reads other than dnyarri have a vote on dynarri. You cancel out OWB as scum because his vote on dynarri yet you don't cancel out Bigdad..
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On January 10 2014 14:43 Day_Walker wrote:OK About your previous question, I think the only two people who don't look better after the night are OWB and BigDad. I reread both of their filters, and the only thing that really pops out is that OWB keeps going after what in my read is a confirmed town (aka me). [/b]
Also, I'm confused about this. How is this scummy at all by OWB? How is he supposed to know you're town? It's also weird that you find the need to even include this since the rest of your post you cancel out OWB as a scum....
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On January 09 2014 03:43 onlywonderboy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2014 00:29 suki wrote:OnlyWonderBoy:I think the tD/DW scumbuddy theory was a bit farfetched, and even theDragoon felt it was pushed too far. As the third person on theDragoon's list of people who pursued that argument, I feel like it's prudent to look into OnlyWonderBoy. On the last minute switch: + Show Spoiler +
First thing to note is that he did try to last-minute vote switch with Jonny onto dnyarri. I feel that this makes him a definite town, but thinking further this applies only if dnyarri flips red. If dnyarri flips green it makes no difference to him to switch and it could be a move to grab town cred. Again, you can't argue one way or another without knowing dnyarri's alignment so I won't consider any of this in my analysis.
One thing that stands out to me is that OWB has talked about only three people: Derrida, Dragoon and Day_Walker His impression on Derrida seems to be neutral so far, and that he thinks Derrida's early Day 1 play seems influenced more by inexperience than scumminess. He was third to vote for theDragoon which I feel is a point in his favour, although his reasoning is based on the td/DW theory: On January 07 2014 05:27 onlywonderboy wrote:My main scum reads at the moment are Dragoon and Day_Walker. They seem to be interacting a decent amount, which isn't inherently scummy, but they go out of there way to distance themselves from each other. Dragoon says "For the record, I want to make it clear that I never said I completely trust Day_Walker," Then Day_Walker says: On January 06 2014 21:03 Day_Walker wrote:At the risk of playing into the "Day_Walker and theDragoon are protecting each other because they are both scum" read, what do you make of theDragoon standing up for Asuna? On January 06 2014 15:49 theDragoon wrote:On January 06 2014 15:30 JonnyLaw wrote:
Excuses, bandwagoning and self doubt in one line.
I'm down to lynch Asuna or OWB at this point.
Dragoon and Chyz read more as if they're trying but misguided.
That's enough of a reason to lynch Asuna? I don't see that as good enough to suspect Asuna of being mafia, unless you know more than what you've said there. Those 3 things you listed there is just a sign of an inexperienced player, it has nothing to do with being a scum. Off the top of my head I can think of only two scenarios where this is consistent with theDragoon scum AND Asuna townie: 1) Scum are protecting some townies to make things harder to read. 2) Scum are trying to make it easier to play the "I'm a newbie" card. I understand wanting to get out ahead of these accusations, but that doesn't mean we should ignore it simply because he pushed Dragoon slightly. These just seem like they are trying to distance themselves early so if either if them go down we don't suspect them as a scum pair. I think he was the one to first throw out the idea that tD and DW were trying to distance themselves from each other. He doesn't state any other reasons to suspect either tD or DW. Just before the end of the day, he states: The more and more I think about it the more I start to doubt the Day_Walker/Dragoon pair. This mostly has to do with how things have played out since Dragoon got a large portion of the votes. I agree that Day_Walker has put forth way more effort into defending Dragoon after his doom seemed inevitable and decided to rally his cause around a lurker that it would be hard to gather support for. If Dragoon flips town DW looks clear, but he seems to have gone out of his way to make it actually look this way. If they were both scum it's unlikely he would be defending him so vehemently. He is doubting that tD and DW are a pair. He states "If Dragoon flips town DW looks clear", but he follows that up with "he seems to have gone out of his way to make it actually look this way" which implies that he finds the DW's hard defense of tD suspicious in itself. When he last-minute switches to dnyarri (following Jonny's lead), he says he "wanted DW over Dragoon anyway". Nothing stands out to me in OWB's filter as particularly scummy so I'm going to rate him as neutral at the moment, although I'm not liking the fact that the only analysis he's contributed against tD/DW is on the scum buddy theory. to OnlyWonderBoy: I really want to hear your thoughts on what went down. I also want to see more analysis on why you wanted Day_Walker over theDragoon in Day 1, and what your thoughts on him are after the flip. I want to hear your top scum picks because so far your only suspects have been theDragoon and Day_Walker. I admit I was a bit overzealous with the Dragoon/DW pair. There was a light connection so I don't feel bad about pushing it to start. I've previously stated why I started to shy away from Dragoon and the DW pair (revolving around how DW played after it seemed certain Dragoon was gonna get lynched). It was not Dragoon's impassioned plea that changed my mind about him. I still think there's a chance DW is scum so I at least tried to move the focus towards him. So DW is still one of my top scum picks. In regards to what happened at deadline, I think a lot of players were just putting their faith in Jonny's vote. Like I said, I'm not 100% sure of dnyarri being scum, but I was willing to take the risk knowing that if he could flip town. Personally I was voting more to save Dragoon than to kill dnyarri (who of course, could be scum). Several other players mentioned how they were convinced of Dragoon's innocence due to his final post so that could have made it easier for them to switch last minute.In terms of other possible scum players, I'm of course suspicious of dnyarri like a lot of players now. Really hope he shows up so we get some sort of insight on his play. Don't have any other solid scum reads right now so I guess my main focus is on dnyarri and Day_Walker. Still not sure about Derrida, but I'm still leaning towards bad town rather than scum. Might need to look into him more.
These two last paragraphs really caught my attention. Now what I think is the case is that since scum KNEW that Dragoon was town, I'm assuming that atleast one of them would switch their vote in order to buy credibility (assuming that dnyarri is not scum). Now from those 6, only 3 are left alive. OWB, Bigdad, and DW. Town needs to start gaining some focus on lynch targets since our Day 2 has sucked compared to day 1, so I suggest we mainly focus on these 3.
Out of all of them I find OWB the most suspicious and a big part of it comes from the bolded paragraphs. He was "personally voting more to save Dragoon than to kill dnyarri" which reads to me as if he knows that dragoon is 100% town and is willing to kill another to prove it. He mentions the useless line after that, "Several other players mentioned how they were convinced of Dragoon's innocence due to his final post so that could have made it easier for them to switch last minute" which to me seems like he is looking for an excuse for why he was along with one of those people. note its how other people were convinced, but not himself? strange way to just follow a crowd, no? AND WAIT, what happens after the flip, he becomes "SUSPICIOUS" of dnyarri when it seems what most people are doing. What happened to your "I'm killing dnyarri more to save Dragoon". If you were so suspicious why would you need that excuse? Makes you look more town credible for trying to save a towny, right? And that last minute vote switch from the towny, very smooth. Also that slight defense on Derrida at the end, the icing on top imo.
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Oops forgot to
##Unvote
##Vote: onlywonderboy
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On January 10 2014 14:44 Balla24 wrote:
How could you miss that bigdad also has a vote on dnyarri..
Oh somehow I had it in my mind that BigDad voted for Dragoon first lynch. My bad. Since dnyarri has such a big target painted on him today, I wasn't putting much weight on the fact that BigDad has his vote on dnyarri right now.
On January 10 2014 14:57 Balla24 wrote:
Also, I'm confused about this. How is this scummy at all by OWB? How is he supposed to know you're town?
Right now I expect scum would be trying to put some of the heat on townies. Right now from my point of view, OWB is doing this. He is doing something that would make sense for scum to do. Of course it is totally possible that OWB it town, and its not a particularly strong argument for OWB scum even from my perspective.
On January 10 2014 14:57 Balla24 wrote:
It's also weird that you find the need to even include this since the rest of your post you cancel out OWB as a scum....
It's weird that when I share my thoughts about someone, I include both sides I see, even the side that I ultimately disfavor?
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Also I'm starting to be bothered by the fact that if I assume dnyarri scum, there is no clear candidate for the remaining scum. And, if we assume dnyarri town, then the most suspicious looking people are me, OWB, and BigDad. All of us voted for dnyarri the first time round. This time BigDad and I have our votes on dnyarri again, and OWB has posted this
On January 10 2014 07:20 onlywonderboy wrote:
If we are less certain about dnyarri being scum I'm fine with finding a new target, but at this point even if we lynch him we find out a lot of information regardless of how he flips.
This basically says OWB is fine with a dnyarri lynch, but he is fine following town onto a new target, and then he justifies that dnyarri flipping town isn't all bad anyhow. Which seems like a pretty good way for scum to OK a vote on a townie while still distincing themselves a bit in the case the that townie actually does get lynched.
So now I'm looking at basically the same scenario that made me think Dragoon was town, where the target (last time Dragoon, this time dnyarri) doesn't look good in isolation but all the scummy feeling people (last time from my POV dnyarri, OWB, and sidesprang, this time from my POV OWB and BigDad, from town's view possibly me as well). I also think Chyz's last post makes a great case that the language of OWB's vote switch looks pretty scummy if dnyarri is town.
And to make this even more frustrating for me, I'm finding myself taking the position that I just criticized OWB for having: right now I'm ok with a dnyarri lynch, but also (for the reasons above) might be willing to consider a new target if we can find a good case. And part of the reason I'm ok with the dnyarri lynch is that even if he turns out to be town, he is the "best" townie to lynch because he hasn't and isn't going to make any significant contribution to town. Bleh.
Oh, and I'll throw this into the post too: I'm still not sure what to make of the kill on Jonny. Derrida makes a big post trying to cast suspicion on Balla and Jonny, and then scum kill Jonny and flip him town. So the scum were planning for one of their members to lose tons of credibility for seemingly no good reason? Were the scum just that uncoordinated?
All of these things are making me a bit uneasy right now. So, I'll go back to what I think is the simplest and most concrete piece of evidence we have right now: Derrida went for a pretty strong defense of dnyarri, then got surprise killed and flipped scum. I believe dnyarri is also scum.
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EPT
