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On January 10 2014 07:20 onlywonderboy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2014 02:12 Balla24 wrote:
Yeah, sidesprang was one of my weaker relationships. Sidesprang never mentioned derrida once in his entire time until he died. That indicates there IS a relationship. Derrida was relatively hard on Sidesprang the entire game, BUT it was very easy to fake, especially in his first post where he gives him red...
He never really acts on it. Definitely probably not worth writing off. I read that more as Derrida trying to push a case on a semi-lurker that he could justify as a reasonable read when he flipped town. It seemed like he was posturing himself for Day 2 and of course didn't expect to die. I'm still getting a scum vibe from Day_Walker. There are his interactions with Derrida prior to his flip Show nested quote +On January 09 2014 02:15 Day_Walker wrote:
I don't like Derrida's post, and I'm going to bed. Show nested quote +On January 09 2014 02:33 Day_Walker wrote:On January 09 2014 02:31 Derrida wrote:
Of course you would hate that post because it points to two scums as two scums for the first time in the game. The only two things that do not make sense in that lynch for me are Jonny's switch and your reaction. Also because it is full of statements which are factually incorrect. You have not read the thread carefully. While this is a negative statement against Derrida it's hardly pushing him very hard. Could easily be a weak read to just to build cred if Derrida ever flipped scum (although I doubt the scum team expected it to come so soon) I also don't think his main theory of Asuna/dnyarri/Derrida is super solid. It revolves heavily around the idea of Derrida leaving out Asuana and dnyarri from his initial reads. I just can't imagine a scum player purposely leaving BOTH of his partners off of a list. It's so suspicious and something people could easily find. If that's what actually happened that might be the worst mafia play I've seen in all my newb games. If we are less certain about dnyarri being scum I'm fine with finding a new target, but at this point even if we lynch him we find out a lot of information regardless of how he flips.
I agree with the fact that dynarri/asuna/derrida is pretty unlikely because he left them both off. But it's pretty weak connection. I'd rather find something more concrete. And anyways, asuna is confirmed atm.
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On January 10 2014 07:20 onlywonderboy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2014 02:12 Balla24 wrote:
Yeah, sidesprang was one of my weaker relationships. Sidesprang never mentioned derrida once in his entire time until he died. That indicates there IS a relationship. Derrida was relatively hard on Sidesprang the entire game, BUT it was very easy to fake, especially in his first post where he gives him red...
He never really acts on it. Definitely probably not worth writing off. I read that more as Derrida trying to push a case on a semi-lurker that he could justify as a reasonable read when he flipped town. It seemed like he was posturing himself for Day 2 and of course didn't expect to die.
Yep, that's why I wrote him off initially. But it's probably wrong to write him off for just that, as I said, it's very easy to fake push someone but then pussy out when it comes to lynching them.
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On January 09 2014 02:08 Derrida wrote:Now, even though I would unvote Dragoon, I don't see the point of jumping on the Dnyarri bandwagon just to policy lynch lurkers. It is true that he did not bring much to the table, but the fact that he was the first to vote on Dragoon (pointed raised by Jonny), doesn't say much about him to lynch. It is something to lynch him for lurking, but I mean switching your vote because he was the first to vote for Dragoon is something completely different. In his vote for Dragoon, Dnyarri says: Show nested quote +Actually I have changed my primary target of suspicion from TheChyz to TheDragoon mainly because of this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723¤tpage=16#316TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else. TheChyz is confusing but I'm not sure if it's carelessness or risk taking. My logic for calling him scum was somewhat faulted too I think. ##unvote ##vote: TheDragoon In my opinion this is just bad play and faulty analysis on the part of Dnyarri made just to have said something. Furthermore, noone jumps on this bandwagon by quoting Dnyarri so it is further irrelevant that Dnyarri was the one to vote first on Dragoon, which makes Jonny's switch even more suspicious.
We need to explain the rationale behind before changing lynch target.
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To be honest I still think Dnyarri is the best lynch target.
If it all goes wrong we have a lot more questions to ask.
I don't think it will go wrong though.
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Anyway guys I have very limited opportunity to play from now until Sunday.
I will be following the game as much as possible and posting on my phone. Thankfully I don't think this vote will be too eventful and as the IC my night play is somewhat pointless so I wont be missing too much.
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We need to explain why Derrida chose to defend dynarri immediately after the lynch was almost switched to him.
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If dynarii is town: Derridia is preempting a dynarii day 2 lynch / night kill and trying to grab town cred?
Or Derridia thinks he can convince us to change lynch target.
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read:
Or Derridia thinks he can convince us to change lynch target from his fellow scummer.
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I honestly think my analysis (that seems to have been totally ignored) before the end of Night 1 was very close to solving this game.
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I don't think the Jonnylaw night kill makes sense for a derrida/dnyarri/sidesprang scumteam.
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On January 10 2014 08:28 chinstrap wrote:
We need to explain why Derrida chose to defend dynarri immediately after the lynch was almost switched to him.
Because it added to his Jonnylaw/Balla case IMO. He wasn't necessarily defending him but moreso calling Jonny out for something he said.
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I think that no matter what dnyarri would be a good lynch target for the reasons I have specified before as in we have no idea if he is scum or town. I can point out something scummy in every single post and even if he is town, since he is so uninvested into the game means that he can easily be swayed by scum. In a sense it would be better if he was modkilled but I think as the case that he happens to do enough to satisfy the requirements to stay in the game each day, he is a liability to town itself (unless you want to gamble and hope he votes well) or he ends up being scum.
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Please do point out something scummy in every single post.
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On January 10 2014 07:45 Balla24 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2014 07:25 dnyarri wrote:
I'd probably save chinstrap. chinstrap is IC and very active. Since nobody here is attacking chinstrap, chinstraps death wouldn't give useful information. It would be purely loss for town.
IC means they are 100% confirmed town by moderator.
Sorry, misread the Q. But, Mafia isn't looking to kill for information... they are looking to kill to win the game. Why would chinstrap's death not give useful information? Anybody dying would give useful information unless Mafia is doing it for literally no reason other than killing someone.
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On January 10 2014 02:08 chinstrap wrote:
If dynarri flips scum - sidesprang is scum #3
On January 10 2014 02:56 Balla24 wrote:
Note though that sidestrap is voting dnyarri RIGHT NOW:
Also Derrida lists sidesprang as his #3 scum pick in his last big post.
Based on Derrida's post sidesprang looks like town to me, and will look even more town if dynarri flips scum.
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On January 10 2014 01:56 Balla24 wrote:
Nope. But right now we're playing under the assumption that there is no SK.
OWB doesn't play risky, you said it yourself, he's being very careful.
Why are we playing under this assumption? Based on all the TTTT options it looks like there is about a 50% chance we have a SK. I agree that we should go after scum before SK, but I don't agree that we should assume there is no SK.
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Because there was only 1 non town KP obviously.
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Also after looking at the TTTT options, I agree that scum probably has a roleblocker, that roleblocker probably blocked a townie, and since nobody besides Asuna has claimed a block, Asuna is probably town.
So by this, my Asuna+dynarri+Derrida idea is probably wrong.
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Do you know something that we don't? At this point in town as town we assume that there is no SK, that's all there is to it. The only way you would know if there was an SK at this point is:
1. You are the SK.
2. You are mafia and your KP got blocked but SK's went through.
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EPT
