EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIX - Page 26
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
pg 8 istandwithmitt instantly jumped on Sagaz after his post. Given istandwithmitt's wildcard play this game, what he did here could mean anything. July617 jumped onto istandwithmitt for his play. Maybe be defending SagaZ here, maybe not. Then a series of RNG arguments I still have trouble understanding due to formatting so I will move past them. pg 10 E00e says it isn't reasonable to immediately vote for Sagaz (which is actually a fair point), then proceeds to say he likes my giving thoughts (which I find a little off because my initial thoughts were pretty stupid as player345 and Bereft eventually pointed out). July617 has a brief exchange with E00e On October 14 2013 17:29 July617 wrote: I dont think anyone is sidetracked, I just think we need to talk more so we can get idea's of the active players and a direction in which to go towards . Preferably a sane one. Doesn't really mean much, it's just fluff. player345 explodes on E00e. July617 interjects to calm player345/E00e exchange down. SagaZ elaborates more on his initial post with some possible extrapolation. pg 13 istandwithmitt switches off SagaZ onto playerboy345 without reason. Unsure what to make of this wildcard play still. onlywonderboy comments on his bad play but notes it could be bad town or bad mafia. Can't make anything of this. Next page istandwithmitt elaborates he thinks playerboy345 is scummier than SagaZ without reason. SagaZ makes a vague post questioning istandwithmitt's play that almost feels suspiciously forced On October 15 2013 05:02 SagaZ wrote: First impressions: going into this I was feeling most uncomfortable with nyxnyxnyx, blindly following some1 sounds like a pretty bad idea for a town, and especially stating it in the thread sounds more to me like he was trying to get onto OdinOfPergo's good side. And the I read istandwithmitt's post and I'm like wtf. He voted for me at the beginning and I thought it was alright, aggressive play-style pointing fingers early to get some heat and get the discussion going, but then instead of making use of it he just go silent. And now this switcharoo vote with no explanation and abrasive behavior? SagaZ further hypothesizes a "weird triangle" between playerboy345/istandwithmitt/E00e. (?) July617 town reads OdinOfPergo, says this as well ? On October 15 2013 07:39 July617 wrote: like i said again in a previous post we should be talking more but like E00e said we'll have a hard time finding mafia without actual evidence to back it up . So i've really got nothing so far. I'm just trying to read everyone safely and calmly. Next page, July617 takes an indecisive stance on SagaZ On October 15 2013 18:11 July617 wrote: @seuss I'll give you that , my past five posts over and over again have been the pretty much the same thing, only because I really don't have an idea of who I should focus my attention to. Yes istandwithmitt is an easy lynch because of how he's acting but I believe there are better lynches out there. As to who ? I'm not so sure, I wish i could say SagaZ but he could just be playing bad town . And Whether it is bad town play or he's secretly mafia, I can't lean to either side without an explanation from him . SagaZ very suspicious of nyxnyxnyx. When Seuss pings July617, he wants you to include Vonthin along with July617. Agrees with istandwithmitt on playerboy345 as #1 mafia, deflects off of E00e. #2 mafia read at this point is onlywonderboy. onlywonderboy leans towards July617 as mafia, doesn't want to lynch istandwithmitt (thinks he is just a poor town - common opinion). SagaZ pings istandwithmitt as a Serial Killer or 70% mafia. Says Vonthin is at least defending himself unlike July617 who still hasn't said shit. July617 joins on the istandwithmitt bandwagon. SagaZ elaborates his disapproval of playerboy345's stance on E00e. SagaZ then switches his vote from istandwithmitt to July617 and defends Vonthin. July617 offers a somewhat fluffy emotional defense: On October 16 2013 07:14 July617 wrote: Seus, I have nothing left to give you, Im bashing my head on the desk trying to figure out what I can do to make you see that I am town . I explained my vote on mitt and yet you still seem to believe i'm mafia, even going as far as saying you'd bet your "virtual life" on it . I don't know what to say, I've tried explaining myself but you just continue to call it useless and meaningless, if that's how you see it then so be it . I have nothing else to say to you because It seems like your stuck on this tirade of me being mafia, you asked me for my opinion and i gave it to you . Yeah I jumped on the bandwagon, because at this point mitt is no use to us as a town player, he continues to write even less then myself and he doesn't seem to care anymore, why are we keeping him around then? You're saying he's contributed more than me ? I'm doing what you asked me to do in your previous post, I gave my opinion and now i'm getting attacked again by you for the one thing you wanted me to do . pg 18 Balla24 directs off of Vonthin/July617 onto nyxnyxnyx. However, he then goes on to question Seuss why July617/Vonthin can't be mafia together. SagaZ switches his vote to Vonthin without much reasoning at all. Very suspicious of SagaZ/July617 connection at this point, most solid lead so far to suggest they are together. And with that, Day 1 ends. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
The more likely scenario from this information is a July617-SagaZ connection. There are a lot of "weak" points that cumulatively add up to support this possibility. First, July617's entry into the thread is defending SagaZ from istandwithmitt. Later, the quoted July617 post on SagaZ is a 100% tentative read on SagaZ. Next, when Seuss pings July617 as a likely mafia candidate, SagaZ suggests that he should include Vonthin as well for acting no different than July617. Now this is where it gets tricky - SagaZ likes how Vonthin is trying to defend himself and dislikes how July617 isn't even trying to defend himself, so SagaZ switches his vote from istandwithmitt to July617. When July617 makes his large post which is mostly an appeal to emotion with little to no substance what-so-ever, SagaZ switches his vote from July617 to Vonthin with little to no reason why. This is the biggest reason I think that SagaZ/July617 might be mafia together. That being said, who could the 3rd mafia in this relationship be? Well, it's really weak from Day 1 data, but I think E00e is the most likely third party. Note that I haven't gone into great detail comparing these patterns from Day 1 with information from Day 2 like I did with my first mafia circle. That being said, I am much less confident in my mafia circle of SagaZ/July617/E00e than I am of my mafia circle of E00e/onlywonderboy/Balla24. I think it's time for some other people to contribute and give some thoughts on my ideas so I can get a better idea of where I ultimately stand for the upcoming vote. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On October 17 2013 12:15 Bereft wrote: my gut reaction is mafia killed Odin and SK killed playerboy. but I need to go to bed so I'll read their filters tomorrow... so to expand on my gut reaction from last night, i still believe odin was the mafia hit and playerboy was the SK hit. odin was a far more aggressive and active townie than playerboy, and had less doubt cast upon his actions than did playerboy. the only way mafia would've chosen playerboy over odin is if they were confident his reaction was a cop slip, but personally i feel one would have to be quite experienced at mafia to detect this (if anyone disagrees let me know). this then begs the question: why odin instead of seuss, myself, or even e00e [if they believed he slipped cop]? i can understand if they thought the doc might save seuss or if they were somewhat skeptical of e00e. why odin then instead of me? not to be full of myself, but between me and odin, it seemed i had morre town cred on d1/n1. GGTemplar, Sagaz both explicitly state i'm their town reads (though GGTemplar later retracts this somewhat). i think Seuss either explicitly states or implies the same on d1/n1. playerboy implies a similar mentality when he follows my vote on Vonthin immediately. as far as Odin goes, nyx, GGTemplar, and E00e give him townish reads, with GGTemplar telling me that i'm a townier read than Odin: On October 16 2013 08:47 GGTeMpLaR wrote: Although I dislike your quick followup post throwing July617 into the batch of your highest scum reads with Vonthin and myself (mainly because it seemed like a pretty weak read after your explanation of why you think Vonthin and I are mafia), I am honestly reading you more town than OdinOfPergo because the information, reads, and reasoning behind your reads are much more clearly presented and concise. so the fact that odin was a larger threat than me means that odin had caught the right scent, mafia is risk averse and thinks i could be protected somehow, or killing me could somehow be tied back to one of them. i'm not sure how this ties to specific actions in this game yet (still thinking about it), but wanted to put this out there in case in triggered anything in the rest of you. seuss, i'm not sure if i agree with some of your town reads [such as the quick town read on OWB], but for these i am in line with you: e00e:i was initially in the camp that believed e00e was cop. HOWEVER, coming out of n1, i am now far more skeptical. if there was a chance e00e might be cop, why didn't mafia roleblock him? this makes me now believe there's a decent chance he's scum. balla: i've gotten more suspicious of his play as the game progressed, but his first few posts of d2 really stuck out to me. in particular, this one: On October 17 2013 13:02 Balla24 wrote: I guess that's helpful, but not really.. as its just how the game works, and irrelevant to whether it's T or TTT. Seuss i'd prefer you comment on the night kills and what you think they mean. Who would do them and why? What do you think about the E00/playerboy topic? Does your previous scum read on July/SagaZ/nyx (i know some of the reads are weak and also some are possibly non-existant now, but still relevant) fit with the kills (I.E. do you think july would kill odin who was suspicious of him even though it would clearly cast suspicion on him)? this seems like really weird behavior from a townie for me. as town: i come back to the thread and see 2 kills have happened in the night --> i start reevaluating my reads, postulating what may have happened, start applying pressure on my scum reads, etc. balla on the other hand starts picking at seuss' brain. maybe i'm off with this one, but why would you do this as town?? you should be primarily concerned with figuring out what this information reveals to you. why would you defer to someone else for their reads immediately? most times, the act of asking someone what they think about certain characters is to figure out if their thought process is a town-oriented or mafia-oriented one. why do you immediately start picking at the brain of the one, confirmed townie?? the only reason one would do this as town is if you are a sheep and are looking at seuss for guidance. but so far, none of balla's actions have betrayed sheeping tendencies. so this seems like a constructed effort to seem helpful and inquisitive. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
as scum, every single person you are questioning you already KNOW is town or scum. ergo, i think it much easier in this scum mental framework to make the mistake of not thinking twice and prodding the one established townie. it just makes no sense to do this (in the way he does) as town. therefore, for now i'll be voting balla. ##Vote: Balla24 however, if most of you see balla's actions as something reasonable for a townie to do / something you would do yourself, i will reevaluate. | ||
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Umasi
United States1399 Posts
Balla24(1): Bereft Not voting (9): GGTeMpLaR, Balla24, Seuss, SagaZ, onlywonderboy, July617, nyxnyxnyx, E00e, istandwithmitt, Currently, no one is set to be lynched. to deadline. Remember, voting is mandatory! If there are errors, please let us know. | ||
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July617
United States72 Posts
Balla I hope you've got a defense as well . | ||
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nyxnyxnyx
Indonesia2978 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Ever since last game when Koshi took over Blurry's character and he started questioning everything and posting every thought that's how I've taken to playing the game. It's a very conducive way for town to play and makes it hard for mafia to not play. Granted, I'm not very good at it yet, especially since I'm not getting others to play like it either. I get my thoughts out as I can and I ask questions upon everyone, especially when they are active. So far, only confirmed townies have answered my questions, which sucks. I believe my posts clearly show that i'm trying to process the information. Especially at the beginning of day2. I want to hear what people think, I don't want them to sit around not posting what they are thinking. @July: You need a defense too dude. Plenty of people have questioned you. | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On October 18 2013 10:38 nyxnyxnyx wrote: i'd like to believe bereft is townie and thus would have more information to work with as compared to seuss. e00e and balla are the two overlaps between their analysis so i'll go with whichever Why aren't you defending yourself against the accusation that you're the serial killer? | ||
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nyxnyxnyx
Indonesia2978 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
At this point you have both slid through with minimal defense and minimal opinions of your own. July, GGtemplar has a theory on you. Please provide some insight on some of the actions he points out. Nyx... there's been theories on you since day1 and very few of them have been defended by you. They are relevant now. How else can we possibly make a confident lynch now (which we need 100%) without all the suspicious people posting defenses? | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On October 18 2013 09:51 Bereft wrote: so just to summarize my comments on balla - i read his comments as a scum slip. as scum, every single person you are questioning you already KNOW is town or scum. ergo, i think it much easier in this scum mental framework to make the mistake of not thinking twice and prodding the one established townie. it just makes no sense to do this (in the way he does) as town. therefore, for now i'll be voting balla. ##Vote: Balla24 however, if most of you see balla's actions as something reasonable for a townie to do / something you would do yourself, i will reevaluate. While Balla24 is one of my scum picks right now I'm fairly annoyed that roughly half the town is basically MIA. onlywonderboy, SagaZ, and istandwithmitt haven't posted since this morning, and nyxnyxnyx and July617 have posted all of once or twice. Whoever is mafia and whoever is town, the town can't survive with so many people absent from the conversation or failing to contribute meaningfully. Since Balla24 is at least posting I'd rather go after nyxnyxnyx or SagaZ, who either aren't posting or aren't putting much effort in. It's not that I think Balla24 is innocent, but I think we get more out of pressuring other people right now. ##vote nyxnyxnyx | ||
onlywonderboy
United States23745 Posts
Everyone seems to think Odin was the mafia kill and playerboy was the SK kill, but I'm not so sure. If the SK goes for Odin (who seems like the obvious mafia target), they are able to put a lot of pressure on july and nyx basically for free. It doesn't matter to him whether or not they are town or mafia, this kill increased suspicion even more and may lead to a lynch. Of course, if either july or nyx are actually mafia, it would make sense for them to kill someone else to take some of the heat away from themselves. Waking up and finding odin dead would certainly hurt this plan. | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On October 18 2013 13:02 onlywonderboy wrote: Damn, I really wish I had more to add (I know people have been calling out my lack of posts), but I'm just not coming up with much. nyx and july still seem scummy (or SK-y) and haven't really defended themselves much so not much has really changed there. Still, even if one of them is mafia, that still leaves two more of them out there. Everyone seems to think Odin was the mafia kill and playerboy was the SK kill, but I'm not so sure. If the SK goes for Odin (who seems like the obvious mafia target), they are able to put a lot of pressure on july and nyx basically for free. It doesn't matter to him whether or not they are town or mafia, this kill increased suspicion even more and may lead to a lynch. Of course, if either july or nyx are actually mafia, it would make sense for them to kill someone else to take some of the heat away from themselves. Waking up and finding odin dead would certainly hurt this plan. I think playerboy345 was definitely the SK kill. Unless the mafia figured out he was a cop from his jumping on E00e, they had no reason to kill him. Honestly, I highly doubt they did. I've explained it before, but killing Odin and Roleblocking Bereft was an extremely strong mafia play. Of the three prominent towns they were the two who potentially had power roles. For all my worries regarding my imminent death, killing me wouldn't have been much better than killing a Vanilla Townie. By targeting Bereft and Odin they potentially locked down our power-roles. All that said, if you follow your ideas backwards from your conclusions, you should be able to find more to add. I reached my town/mafia/SK reads by starting with an assumption I was 90% sure of and working from there. Even if you post an unfiltered, stream of consciousness thought process as you analyze it'll be more useful than not posting, even if it doesn't really lead anywhere. | ||
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onlywonderboy
United States23745 Posts
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On October 18 2013 13:23 onlywonderboy wrote: Good point, they could have killed a different active player and still drew heat away from themselves. I think I just tunnel visioned on it being the obvious play, when the obvious play might have very well been the best play. Of course it's a good point. I made it.  Whether I've won you over to my thinking or not, do some of the analysis I described and then post again. We need more voices in the thread, including yours. | ||
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onlywonderboy
United States23745 Posts
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