EPTSeuss i'd prefer you comment on the night kills and what you think they mean. Who would do them and why? What do you think about the E00/playerboy topic? Does your previous scum read on July/SagaZ/nyx (i know some of the reads are weak and also some are possibly non-existant now, but still relevant) fit with the kills (I.E. do you think july would kill odin who was suspicious of him even though it would clearly cast suspicion on him)?
Newbie Mini Mafia XLIX - Page 24
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Seuss i'd prefer you comment on the night kills and what you think they mean. Who would do them and why? What do you think about the E00/playerboy topic? Does your previous scum read on July/SagaZ/nyx (i know some of the reads are weak and also some are possibly non-existant now, but still relevant) fit with the kills (I.E. do you think july would kill odin who was suspicious of him even though it would clearly cast suspicion on him)? | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
Now that we know playerboy345 was a 1-shot cop, his overreaction to E00e comes into sharper focus. It didn't occur to me, but that overreaction could have hinted at his role to a more astute observe. It's possible the mafia figured it out and killed him. He also makes a better target than Odin in general, as Odin's prominence made him a more likely target for protection. The only person who really had a reason to kill playerboy345 otherwise was E00e. He was strangely quiet during the night phase so it's possible, but it's also obvious. We have very little to go off of beyond that if it was the Serial Killer. Odin is the more likely mafia target because he was a very prominent town. He drove a lot of conversation, though not always in a useful direction. He's also not me. Given that I was the only confirmed town, however town Odin appeared, there was a very high likelihood that a Doctor might interfere with a night kill on me. Odin was a good secondary target. However, Odin was also an easy Serial Killer target for similar reasons. Odin bumped heads a bit, so there's basically no way for us to find a single thread. All that said, nyxnyxnyx might have made a next level play. Who'd suspect the guy who blindly followed Odin to murder him! | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
SagaZ you had a SK read on istandwithmitt, now that there's more posts from mitt, what do you think about it, now that there is a pretty much confirmed SK? | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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E00e
88 Posts
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domain90
United States2 Posts
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nyxnyxnyx
Indonesia2978 Posts
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nyxnyxnyx
Indonesia2978 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
Not voting (10): GGTeMpLaR, Balla24, Seuss, SagaZ, onlywonderboy, July617, nyxnyxnyx, E00e, istandwithmitt, Bereft Currently, no one is set to be lynched. to deadline. Remember, voting is mandatory! If there are errors, please let us know. | ||
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playerboy345
Netherlands194 Posts
GO TOWN! GLGL | ||
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July617
United States72 Posts
That's understandable player boy, school should always come first good luck. What's our plans as town, we're three town members down with the possibility of an SK, we need to get this day 2 Lynch correct and hit a mafia. Is there a possibility that it's not an SK and it's actually a vigi, at this point I'm not too sure myself but I don't think we should rule out any possibilitys until we're all 100% sure. I'll be away from my keyboard for most of the day, I just wanted to post some thoughts about the whole vigi / sk topic, I think it's a topic we should talk about but not get completely bogged down on, because isn't a single sk less of a threat then mafia? (correct me if I'm wrong but if there is a chance of an sk or a scared vigi shouldn't we help point them to mafia so we can get two potential mafia gone for night and day 2?) | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
On October 17 2013 20:56 July617 wrote: mods can we get still get a replacement? From the OP: Replacements will be made until Day 3. If someone needs to be replaced please contact the hosts via PM, thanks. Edit: To clarify, in playerboy345's case replacement wasn't needed because he was actually shot during N1. | ||
onlywonderboy
United States23745 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On October 17 2013 15:45 E00e wrote: I will have to time to read and post in ~3 hours. I thought Seuss explained my cop post and I dont understand why you think I tried to out a cop. I literally asked when the cop should come out and did not tell anyone to. I even explicitly stated that I dont want the cop to come out right now then. A discussion about when the cop should come out cannot be a bad thing for town except if we ignore other more important discussion topics to discuss it. I don't disagree. You can see from my response to it yesterday. However, situation has changed now that playerboy is dead. Looking forward to your response later. | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On October 17 2013 16:59 nyxnyxnyx wrote: am i wrong in saying that if we make a mistake and vote out a townie this day phase, then that leaves 5 townies and if a further 2 are killed that night, then it's game over? If there's a serial killer it's not necessarily game over, more like "go buy lottery tickets". Townies basically pray at that point that the serial killer both votes with them and kills a mafia N3. | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
The key to this is the roleblock on Bereft. If you review the previous day's events three people stand out as active, talkative, and inquisitive town players, OdinOfPergo, Bereft, and myself. At first glance I look just as valuable a target as either of them, but that is not the case. I'm the only townie the mafia knows has no special powers. Killing me guarantees that they don't kill a power role. Given how often I repeated my assumption that I wouldn't live another day, it's also likely they feared potential intervention from a doctor. So the strongest play for the mafia in this situation was to roleblock one of the remaining two and kill the other. The rest is history. Odin is dead, Bereft is outed as a power role, and the serial killer happily offed a cop. Based on this analysis I believe I have a fairly good read on who is town, who is mafia, and who is the serial killer.
By basic process of elimination, that means SagaZ, Balla24, nyxnyxnyx, and E00e are scum and/or the serial killer.
nyxnyxnyx is obviously the Serial Killer. It doesn't make sense for Balla24 and SagaZ to have been going after him unless they thought he was town. But he isn't town, and isn't mafia, which leaves only one possibility. His posting record is also rivaled only by E00e in terms of usefulness. Who'd suspect the sheep was really a wolf? Normally I'd suggest we start by lynching nyxnyxnyx, but as he's also been the target of the scum we're better off starting with Balla24 or SagaZ, otherwise it's too easy for them to skate by. So long as we lynch the Serial Killer tomorrow we should still be able to win. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On E00e. I was the first one to call him out on the "cop claim debacle" after playerboy's death. If you think he's scum then I'm not scum with him and vice versa. If it wasn't for him, playerboy might not have gotten shot last night (I do have some part to play in this, but by the time i got back I think the damage was already done) and we might have a check. I did not claim july was being careful. You're twisting my words. I was talking about it from the point of view of July being scum, he might not be willing to take a risk that would put him under suspicion on the vote, especially if he felt confident Vonthin was going to get lynched anyways (with two town leaders pushing for him). On odinofpergo kill. Anybody would draw that conclusion. Onlywonderboy did even. I even said that it could be a kill to draw suspicion on them, leaving that as an option. Also, how was GGTemplar "heavily against" the Vonthin vote. I don't see that at all, could you quote me some posts from his filter where you get that impression. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
I would put onlywonderboy in a circle with me you bereft. I get a good feeling from him. He's playing very similarly to last game where he got lynched for it. Bereft might not be willing to let him slide for it again but I am. I think he would change a bit if he was scum. I would also put istandwithmitt in there quite tentatively because of his early play. Everybody else I'm weary of. SagaZ has been terribly inactive recently which kind of changes my opinion of him from Day1. July's posting is quite useless as town, IMO which makes me uneasy and I agree with istandwithmitt on ggtemplar. | ||
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E00e
88 Posts
I am not sure why you say that only one of us, me or you, can be mafia. I am not sure if you honestly try to investigate if I am scum or looking to lynch a town that might not be able to defend themself well being scum yourself. I voted for nyx because this was the only person I really had a bad feeling about. If you agree with Seuss that was at least somewhat correct, even though I thought of nyx as mafia since I did not take a Serial Killer into account. I liked Odin and think he was killed by Mafia because playerboy was more of a controversial player and had a higher chance of being shot by a vigilante or being lynched. Seuss you said you are somewhat certain that there are 4 non-town players out there but you list only 3 people in your last post as non town. | ||
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E00e
88 Posts
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