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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On October 04 2013 17:58 Oatsmaster wrote: I think sloosh is the only one who is even the least bit likely of those 4. The rest are pretty much town. yeah also my thoughts. So basically if we can be sure that all 4 of them are town, we win, we just lynch all 3 of marv/oats/dirk. we have 3 lynches. | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
On October 04 2013 17:39 Blazinghand wrote: Clarity could have easily stood by and obstinantly declared that Sloosh was the wagon of justice and we should swap to his wagon. If he was scum with Sloosh it would be almost certainly the best play. Instead, his final vote just as the deadline approached, averted a no-lynch and ensured a scum-lynch. Sloosh is the only guy on the Rayn wagon who IMO isn't basically confirmed town coming out of that exchange, since as scum one might easily imagine him deciding that the drunken and almost-wagoned rayn was unlikely to survive, and he, Sloosh, was the superior scum, the one who would be more likely to win if allowed to live past D1. I have no evidence for this theory, but honestly Sloosh is the only one who I could even begin to have a scumread on, and last I checked he seemed really townie to me. Ultimately, most of what ANYONE has to say is irrelevant unless it shows one of the following is scum. And ultimately, the only one who can really potentially be scum is Sloosh. Tell me if you have a scumread on any of The Four in light of recent events, and most importantly, why. Especially RE: Sloosh. I want to be able to wake up tomorrow, and read what you think and be able to write some good final thoughts for you guys to work off of. Also if there's a flaw with my "lynch marv, oats and dirk so town auto wins" strategy (besides the possibility of sloosh scum) let me know too. I agree with this. I'm willing to lynch two people before reconsidering sloosh as possible scum. I still don't think marv is scum, though. Oats or dirk, who first? Probably Oats. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
should i read what i missed? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
On October 04 2013 19:15 marvellosity wrote: if there's a plan, that sounds lovely. means i can stop thinking about the game. should i read what i missed? I'd rather you continue thinking about the game and solve it within two lynches or else you might get lynched at lylo >.< | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
On October 04 2013 19:21 marvellosity wrote: also why is slOosh town? Sloosh least certain out of the 5 that voted him. Risen as scum could have easily voted sloosh and gotten away with it. | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
On October 04 2013 19:21 Oatsmaster wrote: Why me clarity I don't remember a single thing you've done this game | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On October 04 2013 19:28 Clarity_nl wrote: I don't remember a single thing you've done this game Thats cause you're bad. I mean, Ive done at least 10 stupid things, Right MARV? Marv, risen is town cause he couldve gone on sloosh with 4 minutes left, same with clarity. And HF. But sloosh couldnt have. Maybe it was between 2 scum day 1. | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
Okay, dirk first. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Certainly because there was a non-zero chance that I was around to vote rayn and hammer him myself. It's the kinda shit that Risen can pull as mafia. However, does seem a bit stretchy maybe that he'd make that case on his scumbuddy in the middle of the day. I still don't know why Risen would *unvote* rayn for slOosh towards deadline just to get a lynch tho | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
Part 1: Sloosh not having an opinion If we start by disregarding any rayn interaction for now (ill come to that) he have done some scummy things. The whole Clarity still reeks to me. When he comes back some 14 hours later and no one is voting clarity with him he explained it with this: On October 04 2013 06:46 slOosh wrote: I've already said in my initial post. You spend a couple of posts, solely stating "I don't know how I feel about BH. I don't want to lynch him though. But I don't know how I feel.", and showed no interest in actually pursuing that. Plus you shut down a possible rayn - BH interaction by answering on behalf of BH. You did have some overlap with marv, but I took that to be too small a sample size. Given another 20+ pages, as well as some resilience to prodding, I don't feel as strong about the initial feelings. That is a weak reason to vote someone imo and an even weaker reason to de-vote. He discarded Risens case on Clarity (and even gave clarity some town points) but this small thing about how he answered Rayn about BH was enough to make him scum? At this point Clarity and Marv was already doing their "saying the same" quite a bit. On October 04 2013 06:48 slOosh wrote: Plus I was contemplating a Clarity BH scum team. It made sense to me at the time. I can't see how this have ever made sense to anyone. He is making reads without making reads - scumtrait. "I used to think A (never posted it though), but now I don't" to appear like he was contributing. On October 04 2013 07:52 Clarity_nl wrote: sloosh has no reads but when people call people scum he agrees so easily. Clarity wrote it better then I ever could. Evidence: + Show Spoiler + On October 04 2013 07:12 slOosh wrote: Yea. I'll back that up. Thinks I'm town, does little to actually prevent my wagon and doesn't actually offer up anything that would make him consider me town. Pretending to care about something that doesn't matter. ##Unvote: Clarity_nl ##Vote: Blazinghand Here he is talking about marv being scum since BH called him scum. On October 04 2013 07:50 slOosh wrote: BH's logic is sound. Having a no-lynch isn't of too much consequence, and if scum marv did gain enough traction to hit BH, then he would still have me in the back pocket to push a lynch onto. He says in his filter than he respects my play, but is content with letting me die, despite having very hazy reads on Dirk and Risen. There still isn't any proper case on me, despite "he was maybe right about dirk before anyone else", and "his read on clarity wasn't that good". Sloosh think it's weird about BH town read on him: On October 04 2013 07:53 slOosh wrote: Am I agreeing to invalid reasons? I still find it strange that BH finds me town somehow, but he claimed doctor. Does that nullify my reasoning? But him having a town read on me is not? His "last post": On October 04 2013 08:25 slOosh wrote: So here's my problem marv. You say you respect my play. From your filter I glean that you have very iffy reads on Risen and Dirkzor. I also glean that your scum read of me is not substantially strong, mainly based on what I haven't done rather than what I have done. And yet you are content to let me sail is disconcerting. But objectively thinking that's me just being upset for being, what I feel like, as unfairly lynched. Maybe I did play really poorly. Ok. That's that. Umm ... Risen is #1 pick for having 0 followup on the clarity case. Additionally he finds rayn suspicious of finding him town, which is strange as if he was town that should be the norm. You don't actively look people with town reads on you and then do a PBPA on them. Still don't see what the problem with Dirkzor is. I think he made an honest mistake with what he perceived as a contradiction in my view of Risen's case and my vote on Clarity. Oats I probably feel moderate to strong town. We've played a bunch of games back to back so maybe that's where I'm getting it from. He is surprisingly consistent and even predictable, and his playstyle looks like that this game. Rayn I don't know too much since the majority of his posts were in the 21~40 range, which I was only able to skim. Prior to that he was pretty lackluster. Lack of activity isn't alarming (I recall he has like a 12 hr job or something), but what he did with that time "I don't know what BH is doing" and then the lack of followup on him was lame. Holyflare I felt like a meticulous person, very structured in his posts (My brain says this is what Oats initially voted him for, cause Oats doesn't like wordiness), so I relate with Holyflare. I would still take care not to let him blindside everyone b/c he is a newbie or whatever. Koshi did that during Sicilian I thinks. This leaves the trio of Marv BH and clarity. If BH didn't claim doctor I probably would still go after him. I don't like marv, but only because I'm sulky. Clarity as I have explained, you had intertwining earlier, and as i have said, I didn't feel like that was a large enough sample size. Scum can intertwine with town. But they usually won't over large portions of time, which is what pg 20~40 showed me. Yup that's it. Umm ... I'm sort of ok with dying right now ... I've made peace with it. In anycase, here's my vote of confidence fwiw after my flip. ##Unvote: Blazinghand ##Vote: Risen So this post is about 40 mins after he agreed with BH about Marv. Now he just doesn't like Marv because "sulky". What? What happened to BH logic that you so easily followed just before? His top reads are Risen and somewhat marv. He think I made a mistake goind after him for the clarity thing just like I made a mistake with the Hf thing. How many mistake do I have to make before he find me scummy? He keeps defending me. He also find Risen scummy because he goes after a person with a townread on him. I did the same with Sloosh but that isn't mentioned. Lets go back a bit and see who he was thinking about earlier: On October 04 2013 06:57 slOosh wrote: Ok so I'm approaching this game from a Foolishness-esque townie elimination approach. Cause why not right? There's only 8 players to evaluate, and picking out townies can somewhat be easier than finding scum. Right now there is a very lazy wagon on me, mostly from what I can tell, a lack of good alternatives. Scum would be ok with this. They want it to eventually land on me, but in the meantime they want to make a pretense of contribution (but not too much lest the wagon actually shifts). So I'm working with a pool of rayn and BH ... ehhh .... Rayn and BH. Where is the connection? There isn't one. After the lynch he has a very overly surprised reaction to the scumflip. All in all he have been flip flopping around targets. Never settling on anyone. He sheeped Marv to BH, BH to Marv, His only original thought was on Risen (somewhat) who making a case on Rayn. Part 2: Sloosh openly avoiding Rayn and vice verca On October 04 2013 07:16 slOosh wrote: I'm looking into rayn right now so we can talk about that soon after I finish. In the meantime, could you explain how you have a strong town (not null) read on me? He never posted anything about Rayn. He never even mention rayn again before his last post (see below) and close to lynchtime. On October 04 2013 07:56 slOosh wrote: Clarity, summarize the case on me and why I'm a substantially, or even remotely better lynch than Risen or Dirkzor (or whoever). Why me and Risen? Rayn had way more traction in the thread then either me or Risen at this point. Even Marv had more traction with BH shouting. It would have been natural to write rayn but he did not. On October 04 2013 08:25 slOosh wrote: -snip- Rayn I don't know too much since the majority of his posts were in the 21~40 range, which I was only able to skim. Prior to that he was pretty lackluster. Lack of activity isn't alarming (I recall he has like a 12 hr job or something), but what he did with that time "I don't know what BH is doing" and then the lack of followup on him was lame. -snip- Clarity as I have explained, you had intertwining earlier, and as i have said, I didn't feel like that was a large enough sample size. Scum can intertwine with town. But they usually won't over large portions of time, which is what pg 20~40 showed me. -snip- What?! You weren't able to get a read on Rayn because you skimmed page 21~40, but you got a strong enough town read on Clarity in those same pages that it made up for your earlier scum read? He was clearly deliberately trying to be vague about Rayn while trying to defend his scumbuddy. On October 03 2013 21:00 raynpelikoneet wrote: -snip- Sloosh: Scummy. I don't understand his townread on Dirk. Says he will get to Risen & HF when he has time. Never follows that up. Then votes for Clarity with his -- apparenly -- scumread Risen. Dirkzor: Horrible opening post. Horrible follow up. Then he says he wants to lynch me or Sloosh, i don't see any reasons from him. When the thread sentiment turns into "Sloosh looks bad" (Clarity voting for him etc.), THEN he places his vote on Sloosh. Best lynch. ##Vote: Dirkzor Rayn with his list post. He got me as number 1 target and Sloosh as number 2. The 2 reads clashes because of me voting Sloosh. + Show Spoiler [Marvs take on this] + On October 04 2013 05:56 marvellosity wrote: Alright, I read the 2nd half of the case. The thing that is not valid: Risen says that rayn is willing to vote his townread (Risen himself). This is pretty clearly not true given the posts quoted The thing that is valid: that rayn seems to be not bothered by his top scumread voting his 2nd scumread. This one's more interesting. Actually I partly caught Cephiro (ok he was already caught) in Noir because he produced two scumreads and didn't mention that one attacked the other. It wasn't on day 1 though. Arguably Dirkzor is my 2nd "scumread" even though I'm not sure he actually is though. Actually in the end I don't have that much of a problem on day 1 with that sort of thing, because it means maybe you're wrong on something. You can't make votes based on rankings of scumminess, because what that is is connections between unflipped players when it comes down to it. I would reiterate that slOosh being scummy but not scummiest for both rayn and BH earlier in the day kinda made me feel good about that lynch. For the "hedging bets" kinda reasons On October 04 2013 05:58 marvellosity wrote: One other thing - the case (or what I read of it) makes it sound like Risen thinks that slOosh is rayn's scumbuddy. Which necessarily would mean that Clarity is town, and yet Risen said that his feelings on Clarity remained the same. And yet partly at least the case on rayn almost seems to rest on slOosh being mafia? Risen says that rayn is doing anything not to vote slOosh. Surely this only makes sense if slOosh is mafia, surely therefore it makes sense to lynch slOosh (given they would both be mafia) to prove that part of the case. Yes? I'm not going to run through how he never talked about sloosh at all even though he was the 2. scummiest according to his list. Risen did that here: link I'll just say that he made a shit case on HF which fell apart. He made a shitty case on me. Nothing on Sloosh. No further comment why people should or shouldn't vote him or why Rayn thought he was scum or not. I know I said I wouldn't but this is for emphasis: On October 04 2013 01:53 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay so, i need to decide my vote now. I prefer Dirkzor. Clarity you are bad or scum. I guess my other options are Risen and Sloosh? If i should switch marv tell me now who to switch on. I trust you the most. I don't wanna lynch Risen, i don't wanna lynch Sloosh either.. because they have not been here, and i can't tell what they are gonna say when they come back (if they do). I don't accept Oats or marv as lynch. On October 04 2013 02:00 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well i do not think Sloosh is necessarily mafia. I do not think Risen is mafia. I think Dirkzor is mafia. I hope i am gonna be back before the deadline. cya fuckers! About endgame I would just say it makes perfect sense for Rayn to end with a vote on Sloosh and vice versa. These were to two up for lynch at the end. Of course they are going to lynch eachother. If one of them cause a No lynch we would have caught it and lynched them the next day. With both of them already in the spot it would have been an uphill battle to not get lynched. Preemptive ##vote Sloosh. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
slOosh was 2nd scummiest for rayn after rayn went off Holy, and yet he basically outright refused to vote him. | ||
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Dirkzor
Denmark1944 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Sorry Risen :p | ||
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