On October 04 2013 16:47 Blazinghand wrote:
yeah honestly everyone on the rayne wagon is like super kosher tbh, which means the last scum is probably between Dirk, Oats, and Marv.

So who is it?

Blazinghand

United States25551 Posts

October 04 2013 08:14 GMT

#1309

On October 04 2013 16:54 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

So who is it?

probably marv but honestly I need to sit down with the dirk filter and figure out what he's been up to. quiet is bad.

Blazinghand

United States25551 Posts

October 04 2013 08:15 GMT

#1310

tomorrow we'll be at 6 scum, 1 town. so barring any weirdness we have one lynch at 6-1, one at 4-1, then it's 2-1 lylo

if we just lynch marv then oats then dirk we will 100% win if scum is in them so my main goal should be to just prove that there is no scum amongst

{HF, Risen, Clarity, Sloosh}

Blazinghand

United States25551 Posts

October 04 2013 08:16 GMT

#1311

hmmm now that I think about it there's a non-trivial possibility it makes sense for scum to bus a teammate to save himself D1 if he thinks he's better off, which means my sloosh read is probably my most important townread, or maybe my single most important read in this game.

Blazinghand

United States25551 Posts

October 04 2013 08:17 GMT

#1312

Well behind the part where I lynch Rayn, that part is the best part

Dirkzor

Denmark1944 Posts

October 04 2013 08:28 GMT

#1313

BH I'm here. I'm reading the thread and trying to figure out everything. Might be a long while before I actually produce anything but ask away if you want. I'll refresh from time to time

Blazinghand

United States25551 Posts

October 04 2013 08:30 GMT

#1314

bah i'll do after sleep

scum is probably amongst the 3 people who didn't lynch rayn, and we can lynch all three of them if we really need to. I'll firm up (or prove wrong!) my townreads on clarity and sloosh after I wake up. Then, from oats marv dirk i'll show off my top scumread or order of scumminess or whatever

we honestly probably already won but i'll make sure there is no doubt, or if there is doubt, i'll channel it the right way.

Blazinghand

United States25551 Posts

October 04 2013 08:35 GMT

#1315

On October 04 2013 17:28 Dirkzor wrote:
BH I'm here. I'm reading the thread and trying to figure out everything. Might be a long while before I actually produce anything but ask away if you want. I'll refresh from time to time

I'm just heading to bed but I'd say the only really important thing is, do you have even a somewhat scumread on:

Risen
Holyflare
Sloosh
Clarity

If we can establish these 4 as town, we win.

I think they're town in part based on the shenanigans surrounding the lynch that began here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430498&currentpage=59

I think Risen and Holyflare are almost certainly town based on the situation here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430498&currentpage=62

basically, 7 minutes from the lynch, rayn and clarity simultaneously vote sloosh, putting sloosh at 4. Risen and HF could have both moved their votes to sloosh (HF had been pushing him earlier, and Risen had swapped numerous times in the last few minutes), and have the added benefit of "preventing a no-lynch". For several crucial minutes, until sloosh voted Rayn, there was an easy excuse to vote sloosh. Even afterwards, it was at 4-4-1, and a swap would have still been defensible to "prevent a no-lynch"-- I suspect actually preventing a no-lynch was the reason clarity ended up voting rayn over sloosh. He didn't want a no-lynch.

Dirkzor

Denmark1944 Posts

October 04 2013 08:38 GMT

#1316

I'll take a look. Still only at 46/66 though.

Blazinghand

United States25551 Posts

October 04 2013 08:39 GMT

#1317

Clarity could have easily stood by and obstinantly declared that Sloosh was the wagon of justice and we should swap to his wagon. If he was scum with Sloosh it would be almost certainly the best play. Instead, his final vote just as the deadline approached, averted a no-lynch and ensured a scum-lynch.

Sloosh is the only guy on the Rayn wagon who IMO isn't basically confirmed town coming out of that exchange, since as scum one might easily imagine him deciding that the drunken and almost-wagoned rayn was unlikely to survive, and he, Sloosh, was the superior scum, the one who would be more likely to win if allowed to live past D1. I have no evidence for this theory, but honestly Sloosh is the only one who I could even begin to have a scumread on, and last I checked he seemed really townie to me.

Ultimately, most of what ANYONE has to say is irrelevant unless it shows one of the following is scum. And ultimately, the only one who can really potentially be scum is Sloosh.

Tell me if you have a scumread on any of The Four in light of recent events, and most importantly, why. Especially RE: Sloosh. I want to be able to wake up tomorrow, and read what you think and be able to write some good final thoughts for you guys to work off of. Also if there's a flaw with my "lynch marv, oats and dirk so town auto wins" strategy (besides the possibility of sloosh scum) let me know too.

Blazinghand

United States25551 Posts

October 04 2013 08:41 GMT

#1318

On October 04 2013 17:38 Dirkzor wrote:
I'll take a look. Still only at 46/66 though.

no problem, take your time, i'm heading to bed. whatever thoughts you have, please share them. I'm gonna have a weird schedule tomorrow since I have a job interview starting 2.5 hours before the deadline, so I've laid out a lot of where I think my thought processes will go. Ideally what I leave behind ensures a win for town even in my absence.