so we think Risen preferred a slOosh lynch over lynching his main scumread rayn here? he moved off his main scumread temporarily to put his vote on slOosh just to get a majority?

No I think Risen was simply trying to consolidate to avoid no lynch.

slOosh

3291 Posts

October 04 2013 03:21 GMT

#1284

On October 04 2013 09:34 marvellosity wrote:
holyflare has to be town, don't think rayn makes that case on a scumbuddy

How about Dirkzor?

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

October 04 2013 04:49 GMT

#1285

Rayn busses like fuck though, probably only second to like kush or Vivax who shoots his own teammate.

slOosh

3291 Posts

October 04 2013 05:12 GMT

#1286

On October 04 2013 13:49 Oatsmaster wrote:
Rayn busses like fuck though, probably only second to like kush or Vivax who shoots his own teammate.

How bad does he bus? B/c Holyflare wasn't under pressure / wasn't going to be a liability or anything.
Dirk, maybe after his stumbling start perhaps ...

In any case, we can look at these people without rayn. Oats thoughts on holyflare / risen / dirk / marv?

Blazinghand

United States25550 Posts

October 04 2013 05:13 GMT

#1287

probably more realistically we can call holyflare town because he's been acting townie all game and was on the list of people who made the rayn lynch possible.

Blazinghand

United States25550 Posts

October 04 2013 05:15 GMT

#1288

I think a classic mistake of associative tells is just looking at how the scum player interacted with other players in the thread. Admittedly, there is a lot of value in this. But there is also value in how players interacted with Rayn before he got lynched. I think the interactions in both directions, and especially how willing people were to lynch Rayn (for example, someone calling him scummy but not voting him could be scum setting up a later bus) are the big things to look for as far as assocative tells go.

That being said, I will check out who Rayn was talking about, but the real meat is in who talked about rayn, how they did it, and why.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

October 04 2013 05:21 GMT

#1289

I think marv is totally not retarded as scum. So hes town.
Risen might be scum for posting another horrible case butttttt that case was on scum. Funnily enough, he never kept his vote on Rayn though. He kept switching around and seemed really like ok about doing so.
Dirk might be scum still, he wasnt around during the shennies at all I think.
Holyflare says things that make me want to lynch him but ill give me the noob card for now.

Blazinghand

United States25550 Posts

October 04 2013 05:23 GMT

#1290

um what about holyflare specifically makes you want to lynch him? links or quotes would be nice

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

October 04 2013 05:24 GMT

#1291

Why BH?

Blazinghand

United States25550 Posts

October 04 2013 05:25 GMT

#1292

Well, in general because if I'm wrong about holyflare I'd like to know why, so I can leave town with some more solid reads before I get shot tonight. In specific because if you don't tell me I'll tell town you're scum, and you get lynched tomorrow no matter what.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

October 04 2013 05:28 GMT

#1293

Also yeah holyflare pushed rayn hard.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

October 04 2013 05:29 GMT

#1294

No I think holyflare is town!!

Blazinghand

United States25550 Posts

October 04 2013 05:29 GMT

#1295

Oh, okay then never mind lol

Blazinghand

United States25550 Posts

October 04 2013 05:48 GMT

#1296

I'm inclined to at least somewhat think that everyone on the Rayn wagon was town. There's something else to say though. There was a period of time, however brief, (link) that the votecount was basically this:

rayn 3 - BH, risen, holy
slosh 4 - dirk oats, rayn, clair
risen 2 - sloosh, marv

and this is exactly 5 minutes out from the deadline. At this point Risen or Holy could swap to Sloosh claiming they need to "ensure a lynch" or something similar, and honestly it would be a fine reason. If you're worried about a no-lynch, then yeah swap from the 3-wagon to the 4-wagon. Basically, Risen and Holy are almost certainly town for not swapping when they had a great excuse to do so.

Remember, Risen has at this point swapped back and forth between rayn and sloosh a couple times. His phone is (allegedly) dying. There are 5 minutes to go. He could just vote sloosh, say "we need to ensure a lynch, phone dying kkthxbai" and basically not be terribly heavily questioned. However, as we know, Risen correctly had a hyooj boner for a Rayn lynch (link). It makes sense to me that Risen as a town player would put lynching his top scumread, Rayn, AHEAD of voting Sloosh, as long as he knows he can swap to sloosh to prevent a no-lynch. Scum Risen would almost certainly take this opportunity to say his phone was dying and just leave a vote on sloosh. After all, it didn't look like the Rayn wagon was actually happening at this point.

One might speculate that Risen was trying to make a no-lynch happen. But honestly? He wrote a case on Rayne. He tried to save himself (when he and sloosh were the two wagons, and/or there was danger of no-lynch) by voting sloosh, against his better judgement. When given the opportunity, he went out on a limb and voted for Rayn. His actions match that imo of town who actually did think Rayn was scum, and was down for shenannnies

I'm gonna give Risen a pretty solid townread.

I think Holyflare also deserves a townread in this case. Unlike Risen, HF had a scumread on Sloosh (link) and was even pushing for his lynch earlier in the day (link). His willingness to vote Rayn coupled with his generally pro-town and analysis heavy play lead me to believe he is also town.

Risen

United States7927 Posts

October 04 2013 05:49 GMT

#1297

On October 04 2013 14:21 Oatsmaster wrote:
I think marv is totally not retarded as scum. So hes town.
Risen might be scum for posting another horrible case butttttt that case was on scum. Funnily enough, he never kept his vote on Rayn though. He kept switching around and seemed really like ok about doing so.
Dirk might be scum still, he wasnt around during the shennies at all I think.
Holyflare says things that make me want to lynch him but ill give me the noob card for now.

And you would have done what? What would fucking Oats have done? Tell the world. You would have sat there and taken it? That's such a load of shit I can't believe a townie would say it, and yet we have marv.

On October 04 2013 09:37 marvellosity wrote:

Show nested quote +

so we think Risen preferred a slOosh lynch over lynching his main scumread rayn here? he moved off his main scumread temporarily to put his vote on slOosh just to get a majority?

No, that's not what "we" think. I can't believe you're in the same boat as oats. You should read the fucking quote. There were 8 minutes left until lynch. You're saying I should have sat on rayn? My phone was dying, I could hardly read the thread b/c the backscreen was so dim, I see myself out of fucking NOWHERE get a train started on me and I don't see anything on rayn. Of course I'm going to move over to sloosh. Sloosh is someone who isn't me.

And you say this after you pushed BH. Really? I'm scummy for voting someone not me when the options were don't vote not me and die or vote sloosh but you're totally town because emotion case on BH notevenscumread. This is the kind of thing you would sit in a QT and laugh and laugh and laugh about because you were soooooo clever. How convenient that you weren't around to lynch rayn, but you were there for the aftermath to immediately try and get attention off of yourself.

Both of you can't be scum but wtf is this

Blazinghand

United States25550 Posts

October 04 2013 05:51 GMT

#1298

Say what you want about Risen's swaps, but when the chips were down and it was 3 votes on Rayn and 4 on sloosh, he DID NOT take the easy out and vote Sloosh, saving Rayn in the name of "ensuring a lynch". Risen courageously stayed on his scumread when it counted, and for that he has my townread.