EPTThug Life Mini Mafia - Page 249
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 08 2013 07:11 VisceraEyes wrote: Except that I think if you look at ALL available options, you'll see two folks most likely.Well I can certainly see scum motivation for it to be sure, but I fail to see why that makes him any more likely to be their partner. And furthermore, as Wave pointed out earlier, he literally said "I'm voting FT to save Palmar". Like....dude. Palmar was about to flip and show his colors. Why would CR say that if he knows Palmar's alignment and team? It doesn't make any sense, and Wave is right in suspecting you for pushing this as likely. WoS and CR. If WoS is scum and pushing me for this, ... it's because he's scum. If CR is scum and WoS is pushing me, who cares I'm right on this. Unless Pandain, CC, VA, or I are better fits for final MCB, then the final MCB is most likely either the guy I'm pushing or the guy saying I'm scummy for pushing CR. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 04 2013 12:35 Chairman Ray wrote: I agree that his explicit statement that he wants to save Palmar looks non-MCB.Hey I'm back now, and I did a quick read through the thread. Definitely impressed by all the reads and information people have been giving. You guys are definitely carrying me here  .Anyways, my personal opinion, I think it's best to go after people that have a possibility to be on a scumteam with SnB. If we can get rid of one scumteam, then the KP goes down. Reading through the filters, I think the strongest disconnect with SnB is probably Palmer. For this reason, even though Palmer might be a good lynch candidate, I wouldn't vote him myself just because I want to get rid of SnB's scumteam first. After a quick analysis, I don't think that there's much of a chance that VA and FT are on the same scumteam, and Palmer and FT are on the same scumteam either. There's a weak disconnect between VA and palmer, but that can go either way. So using the four people - VA, SnB, FT, and Palm, I will try to see if I can map out their alliance. Scenario A Scumteam: SnB, VA FT and Palmer cannot occupy third spot, and they are also disconnected, so one must be other scumteam, one must be town Scenario B Scumteam: SnB, FT VA and Palmer cannot occupy third spot. They can both be other scumteam, or one of the is scum, one is town. Among the three people VA, FT, and Palmer, here's the information that we will get from lynching them: VA - If he flips scum with SnB, then either FT or Palmer must be town. If he flips opposite scum, then FT is likely scum, or else both FT and Palmer are town. If he flips town, then FT and Palmer can be scum on opposite teams, or one is scum, one is town. FT - If he flips scum with SnB, then out of VA and palmer, one or both is on the other scumteam. If he flips other scumteam, then, Palmer is town, and VA is can either be town or scum with SnB, more likely scum with SnB. If he flips town, then we don't know much about Palmer and VA. Palmer - I don't want to lynch him, but if he flips other scumteam, then it doesn't say much about VA and FT, and if he flips town, it doesn't say much either. There's also solstice, which some people are pushing to vote. I think the only disconnect that can even be drawn with him is with Palmer, but it's not a very strong one. I also doubt he's gonna be lynched today, so there isn't much of a point trying to piece him in. I will do that tomorrow. Right now, I think I'm gonna put my vote on FT since there isn't that big a benefit lynching VA over him, and plus, I wanna save Palmer. ##Vote: FirmTofu But in context of the post as a WHOLE, I think that townieness fades. The parts where he reads Palmar or talks about Palmar's alignment are in red. The post, in summation says: (1) Palmar might be a good lynch candidate, I wouldn't vote him myself just because I want to get rid of SnB's scumteam. Indicating that CR finds Palmar scummy. He MIGHT be a good lynch candidate (we lynch scum). And he shouldn't be lynched because we want to clear out SnB's team (i.e., Palmar would be on the other team, but still scum, not "Palmar is town so don't lynch"). (2) Palmar might flip scum, might flip town. (3) I wanna save Palmar. While he DOES say he wants to read Palmar, that post as a whole just sort of skirts giving any kind of actual READ on Palmar. Whereas WoS explicitly says can't read can't read can't read, CR manages to post about Palmar, Palmar's alignment, and why he's not lynching Palmar, without ever really taking a stance. It's clear that he doesn't want to lynch Palmar. It's clear he wants to save Palmar. But the way that post ADDRESSES Palmar, he's scum but on the other team, might be town, might be scum, let's save him, is scummy imo. And for the rest of the cycle, despite dropping a couple other posts, CR never addresses Palmar. Pre-switch, post-switch, while asking whether FT will get modkilled, CR stays entirely to the side of the issue of Palmar's alignment. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
There IS the explicit statement that he wants to save Palmar. But he shares the characteristics that I saw in Wave of trying to push the lynch OFF Palmar while skirting Palmar's actual alignment. WoS steps in and says can't read or gives weak reads, but CR just skirts it entirely, except that the inferences drawn from his first paragraph indicate he thinks Palmar IS mafia. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On October 08 2013 07:21 austinmcc wrote: I GOT PULLED BACK IN NOW. Here's that post - I agree that his explicit statement that he wants to save Palmar looks non-MCB. But in context of the post as a WHOLE, (I)I think that townieness fades. The parts where he reads Palmar or talks about Palmar's alignment are in red. The post, in summation says: (1) Palmar might be a good lynch candidate, I wouldn't vote him myself just because I want to get rid of SnB's scumteam. Indicating that CR finds Palmar scummy. He MIGHT be a good lynch candidate (we lynch scum). And he shouldn't be lynched because we want to clear out SnB's team (i.e., Palmar would be on the other team, but still scum, not "Palmar is town so don't lynch"). (2) Palmar might flip scum, might flip town. (3) I wanna save Palmar. While he DOES say he wants to read Palmar, that post as a whole just sort of skirts giving any kind of actual READ on Palmar. Whereas WoS explicitly says can't read can't read can't read, CR manages to post about Palmar, Palmar's alignment, and why he's not lynching Palmar, without ever really taking a stance.(II) It's clear that he doesn't want to lynch Palmar. It's clear he wants to save Palmar. But the way that post ADDRESSES Palmar, he's scum but on the other team, might be town, might be scum, let's save him, is scummy imo.(III) And for the rest of the cycle, despite dropping a couple other posts, CR never addresses Palmar. Pre-switch, post-switch, while asking whether FT will get modkilled, CR stays entirely to the side of the issue of Palmar's alignment. I. It never looked townie, it looked non-MCB...and it doesn't STOP looking non-MCB just because he's wifflywaffly about Palmar's alignment. He said the words "I'm voting FT because I want to save Palmar". That is not likely to come from Palmar's scummate. Full Stop. II. Wave is equally, if not more suspicious, for what you cite here. Except Wave actually goes back on a townread he gave Palmar in order to espouse the sentiment that he can't read Palmar. III. It IS scummy, you're right. But it doesn't make him any more likely Palmar's partner. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
Connection with Palmar Originally states we should switch to another lynch. On October 05 2013 04:50 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: I can phone vote from work. FT should be modkilled. I agree on another lynch: more information for us If FT does last min vote policy lynch. Vayne, FT, and Palmar are the only three lynches. Cheesecake says that he doesn't want to vote Vayne. On October 05 2013 04:54 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: Im not switching to vayne. So what does he do? On October 05 2013 04:55 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: Ehh fuck it just lynch FT. Eventually he changes after the vote is already decided, he's the second to last vote at 4:59. Which doesn't make sense given he said this On October 05 2013 04:57 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: Palmars got enough votes. Dont lynch VA. Im fine with palmar if FT is getting modfucked. On October 05 2013 04:59 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: We dont know if hes getting modkilled... Explanation later + Show Spoiler + On October 05 2013 06:46 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: I thought ft was claiming scum by being silent. Just look at cephiro in noir (sorry)... Silent dudes gettingvtes are often scum cus they dont want to give information away. Was just bad, then. I cared about the lynch, but ft needed to go. If i didnt care i wouldnt have switched to palmar to get an extra kill. I was debating it due to not knowing if ft was going to be modkilled. Justifies pretty okay but I don't like the fact he is claiming credit for the lynch, Palmar was already a goner. His story doesn't add up and it seems created post-hoc. Day One Play
Other suspicious things On October 05 2013 08:19 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: It was early middle in his filter. I can filter at work soz Never actually did and I doubt he had any justification Vayne was and is clearly scum. After Palmar's lynch he tried to connect Oats with Palmar with weak reasoning. It's more important in my eyes he went for this approach as this is how a scum would approach being a lone member. Try and cast connections to your former mates on other people while inflating your own. Not too bad though, Day Four Play Half of his filter came during day four. It's all surrounding S0lstice and not about other people until way later, and even then only small snippets. On October 07 2013 11:50 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: s0l I'll admit you could be cop but I had a scumread on you and and and... epeen must grow, I must be right early. Worst reasoning ever On October 07 2013 12:03 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: I just hope we lynch the correct guy. If S0lstice is real cop and is lynched, we're pretty fucked. Super contradicts the above "yo lets do it for my e-peen" Final Note In the end I just find him scummy, not more then WoS or Vayne. However, one of the key things in my mind is that he's definitely not on DRB and scum messaged him. That means they had to have been, by consensus of three people super unbelievably confident . S0lstice confirmed that he thought that and used the word 99% and also didn't hint that he had just got bussed. Also S0lstice gave reasoning for pming CC. I do think there are reasons I haven't thought of for lynching CC that proves he's scum, but I honestly don't know what they are. Right now I just think he's scum, and I'm not sure how to weigh the rest. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
MCB has to deal with DRB too, and it was 1 v. 3 at the moment. Why not out him? I don't think that proves that he had to have done that, but I don't think him outing scum precludes him from being scum. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
You sure you didn't bus him? | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On October 08 2013 07:52 Pandain wrote: I agree though I'm not confident as much as I thought I would be, really surprised they masoned CC. You sure you didn't bus him? I really really really confirmed Oats rofl. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
On October 08 2013 07:53 Pandain wrote: If you get shot and lied about confirming people you will lose your town MVP award, just so you know hehe. Dnu why they want to talk to me in PM tbh. | ||
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Koshi
Belgium38799 Posts
Like bussing VE into somebody would be the best idea I guess. pff. | ||
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