Thug Life Mini Mafia - Page 222

On October 07 2013 09:34 austinmcc wrote:
Fakeable, yes. If nothing else, it's just a pile of words. It's a fun story to tell about the two of you in QT. Not the EASIEST thing to fake, but easier to fake a summary than real posts. I can also note that I changed some QT posts and deleted some when I posted scum logs in PTP4, and did so on the fly (as did kita, he changed some things), so i HAVE doctored logs before, and it wasn't the hardest thing ever. He's had enough time today to doctor if he wanted to.

Currently I'm back on the Koshi cop and solstice scum side of the fence, between that chunk of stuff, Koshi's finally being angry, and really looking back at some of Koshi's posts.

Koshi went ALL OUT claiming, telling people rayn was 100%, couple other things, like...the checks he claims to have made show in HIS posts.

With solstice, some of the checks he claims the team made show up in HIRO'S posts. That's important to me because scum, upon seeing Hiro flip, may have tried to look for who he copped. If scum look at Hiro's reads before and after certain nights, they might well pull up posts like "dude scum" --> "no wait, maybe I was wrong, getting a much townier vibe now".

There's something to be said for Koshi's support coming from Koshi posts, whereas solstice's support comes, in part, from Hiro's posts, that scum would have been wanting to check out.

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As far as effort, whatever, this is good. I will probably still try to get people to lynch non-cops. I still think it's best, given that I may be leaning one way but am not sure.

Whichever of them is mafia or cop or whatever, still other scum to find.

And neither is likely 3rd MCB choice. Honestly, look at the above posts. Look at the rules and then these last few reads. Do you see any likely options other than Pandain or CR (with you as an outside third atm) in Koshi-cop-town, of Pandain or CR in solstice-cop-town? I fully disagree that it's impossible to, at the very least, heavily narrow down who could be the remaining one-man team.

On October 07 2013 09:34 austinmcc wrote:
Fakeable, yes. If nothing else, it's just a pile of words. It's a fun story to tell about the two of you in QT. Not the EASIEST thing to fake, but easier to fake a summary than real posts. I can also note that I changed some QT posts and deleted some when I posted scum logs in PTP4, and did so on the fly (as did kita, he changed some things), so i HAVE doctored logs before, and it wasn't the hardest thing ever. He's had enough time today to doctor if he wanted to.

Currently I'm back on the Koshi cop and solstice scum side of the fence, between that chunk of stuff, Koshi's finally being angry, and really looking back at some of Koshi's posts.

Koshi went ALL OUT claiming, telling people rayn was 100%, couple other things, like...the checks he claims to have made show in HIS posts.

With solstice, some of the checks he claims the team made show up in HIRO'S posts. That's important to me because scum, upon seeing Hiro flip, may have tried to look for who he copped. If scum look at Hiro's reads before and after certain nights, they might well pull up posts like "dude scum" --> "no wait, maybe I was wrong, getting a much townier vibe now".

There's something to be said for Koshi's support coming from Koshi posts, whereas solstice's support comes, in part, from Hiro's posts, that scum would have been wanting to check out.

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As far as effort, whatever, this is good. I will probably still try to get people to lynch non-cops. I still think it's best, given that I may be leaning one way but am not sure.

Whichever of them is mafia or cop or whatever, still other scum to find.

And neither is likely 3rd MCB choice. Honestly, look at the above posts. Look at the rules and then these last few reads. Do you see any likely options other than Pandain or CR (with you as an outside third atm) in Koshi-cop-town, of Pandain or CR in solstice-cop-town? I fully disagree that it's impossible to, at the very least, heavily narrow down who could be the remaining one-man team.

On October 07 2013 09:29 s0Lstice wrote:


As much as Koshi doesn't deserve any compliment from me after telling me to take a dick in my ass...he is not a dumb person by any stretch. Quite the opposite. He doesn't have classicly good mafia skills, but he is pretty fucking good in his own way. I wouldn't put it past him.

On October 07 2013 09:47 Koshi wrote:

Only around to say that I meant I was bowing down for your applaud and not bowing down so you could put your dick in my ass because it seems like you are trying that.

WoS I am in bed and I dnu why. Maybe I am angry your filter is longer than my filter.

On October 07 2013 09:46 Pandain wrote:
Using a "Palmar will get shot" defense for a scum buddy is one of the best things I could think of. Very unlikely he will get shot as scum is trying to get rid of confirmed townies and the other scum, so they won't 'just' shoot a vet.

Yeah he did, and he got the connection that "Palmar is not SnB". Hmmmm. As I've said before there isn't that much to gain, he also said I was scum for calling SnB town when he was very much so town in my eyes for good reasons.

Palmar was going to get lynched, not enough people believed me in Vayne. Wasn't the eventual vote like 7-3?

Cheese stayed out of all conversation for the flip until the end, in my eyes because he was forced to switch to the only other viable choice or come out suspicious.

I agree your point though about not taking credit is interesting.

I thought about WoS as a possible choice for the last MCB. Very determined to avoid Palmar and only laid suspicion on Vayne and FT, wouldn't switch to even Palmar despite me showing that FT was town. My only caveat was that I was pretty sure that he was scum with Vayne but maybe it's not too hard to just assume that he wanted to make sure FT got lynched over Palmar. And at end he tried to with Vayne before it was certain Palmar would get lynched.

Do you agree Vayne is scum?

On October 07 2013 10:01 s0Lstice wrote:
Austin, you have said I'm likely not the last MCB if scum right?

On October 07 2013 06:44 austinmcc wrote:
10-4.

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Koshi
Koshi as cop confirms Koshi, VE, oats, rayn. In your scenario I am town and WoS is town.

That leaves: Pandain, VA, CR, Cheesecake, solstice.

Within that group, solstice MUST be mafia (claim). 3/4 of Pandain, VA, CR, Cheesecake MUST be mafia. This scumgroup hinges on Cheesecake. He's the one who called out solstice walkie-talkieing him.

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1. Koshi and Cheesecake
If he's town, if we think this ISN'T a giant ploy and solstice's team fucked up in thinking CC was scum, then the scum team is Pandain/VA/CR/solstice. Splits in my head are initially solstice/Pandain/VA + CR or solstice/VA/CR + pandain.

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1(a). Koshi, Cheesecake, solstice/pandain/VA + CR/Palmar/Snb
This scum team makes no sense. Pandain pushes VA over Palmar on D3. He can take cred saving FT and MAYBE lynching scum in Palmar, without giving up VA. Saving FT + bussing VA is just too much.

Moreover, VA is all up in Pandain's butt. Keeps calling Pandain mafia. This scum team is unlikely, as they're just too at each other's throats. Like...SnB pushes Palmar, but not spamming a whole day to get people onto him like Pandain does with VA. That's way way way too much commitment for a bus.

1(b). Koshi, Cheesecake, solstice/CR/Pandain + VA/Palmar/Snb
Here, Pandain's D3 push on VA makes more sense. VA can be scum but not on Pandain's team. And Pandain and VA get to be split apart. However, VA didn't seem to care if we lynched Palmar D3. He didn't say much, but he voted Palmar and seemed decently okay with it, never tried to shift the lynch to another target or just stick with FT. Therefore, I do not like this scenario.

1(c). Koshi, Cheesecake, solstice/CR/VA + Pandain/Palmar/Snb
In this situation, VA is actively going after the remaining scum from the other team. Pandain is trying to save FT and lynch VA D3, but gets forced onto Palmar, his scumbuddy.

However, VA today is unwilling to accept solstice as possible cop. In this case, VA is CRAZY distancing himself from solstice, even when other options present themselves (lynch koshi, lynch outside the two). I don't love that idea, but it's there.

Based on 1(a) giving a really weird Pandain bus on VA and sacrifice of solstice, I hate it. Based on the implications of (b) and the D3 lynch, I dislike it. I really do not see Palmar's teammate being entirely resigned to just let him go, when it was reasonable for people to stay on FT.

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2. Koshi and Cheesecake
In this scenario, Cheesecake is outing solstice's PM, but is part of the other mafia team. He just wants solstice lynched, get cred, huzzah huzzah. With solstice and cheesecake scum, we need 2 mafia within CR/VA/Pandain.

I would personally argue that Pandain is town here. After yesterday morning, VA calling oats a great bulletproof target and just, in general, spewing nonsense, i do not think he's town. He's also trying to make me (confirmed town in these scenarios) look scummy, and just...he has not made the most sense lately. Like saying he was the clear mislynch for today when: (1) oats was set up yesterday; (2) two other players had more votes than him when he said that. So, no offense, I'm not considering VA town in these scenarios.

Pandain or CR is town here.

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2(a). Koshi, Cheesecake, Pandain
If Cheesecake and solstice were on opposite teams, cheesecake outing solstice is REALLY weird. Too weird. Why not work together and backstab later? Why not at least get more info out of solstice and THEN backstab, letting everyone know he's mafia AND he gave up his team? So I'm assuming cheesecake/solstice same team, and doing this to try to secure someone for later game, a way for scum to "confirm" someone as town by dumping solstice.

Cheesecake/Solstice/VA + CR or Cheesecake/Solstice/CR + VA
Both VA and CR, whichever is on the solstice-team in Pandain-town world, are dumping solstice, hoping to survive a little bit and live with cheesecake, setting him up to carry it through. In each case, the one-man team is ALSO going after solstice, but doesn't actually KNOW that solstice is mafia. Again though, VA being okay with the Palmar lynch makes the first option more likely than the second.

2(b). Koshi, Cheesecake, CR
The cheesecake/solstice thing still applies. Now you're looking at

Cheesecake/Solstice/VA + Pandain or Cheesecake/Solstice/Pandain + VA
Pandain and VA are split, so that interaction doesn't help make something more likely here. Again, both the scumbuddy and the one-man team are going after solstice, and just solstice. And same thing with disliking VA/Palmar on the same team.

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So what does Koshi cop mean? It hinges on Cheesecake.

IF you think he's Cheesecake, then the remaining mafia MUST be Solstice, Pandain, VA, and CR. And the likely setup is 1(c), with Pandain being the last MCB.

IF you think he's Cheesecake, then the remaining mafia are 2/3 of Pandain, VA, and CR. The scumteams I see being most likely there are Cheesecake/Solstice/VA + CR or Cheesecake/Solstice/VA + Pandain


IN THE KOSHI SCENARIOS, PANDAIN OR CR IS THE LAST MCB. IF YOU THINK CHEESECAKE, THEN THE LAST MCB IS PANDAIN

Okay. I need a moment. Going to post out the other options. Then gonna start really digging, because we can eliminate SOME options based on posts, just gotta look.

On October 07 2013 10:18 austinmcc wrote:
I don't love VA + solstice same team. Just read it, that's based on how VA would be letting you go today with no attempt whatsoever to save. gg solstice, no re.

So nope, I don't like that. And yes, you guys would be on the same team if you're scum.

Me not liking him cutting bait so hard if you're both together isn't nearly as powerful as some of the other assumptions I'm working under --> neither of you can be MCB to me. For you it's suicide to claim cop as MCB. For him, he does nothing at all to even hint at saving Palmar.

If you're scum, you're same team. Nope, don't love it. But look at the conclusions I draw above. Each of my teams has you guys together. I don't have to love it, but if you're scum and I'm right on him, he IS just distancing, and decided that there's no hope of saving you.

On October 07 2013 10:26 s0Lstice wrote:


So by that logic there are two people in thread who are trying to save me right now? Who are they?

On October 07 2013 10:33 austinmcc wrote:
Read the post. By that logic, scum would be trying to save you. Yes. But VE's not mafia, I'm not mafia, WoS is possibly mafia, but frankly nobody else is really trying, just possibly interested.

Except...post. Yes, by that logic, people would be trying to save you. But in the end, I conclude the likely scumteams if you're scum all contain you + VA.

Not that my conclusions are wrong, or that you're town, but that scum just isn't trying to save you, and ultimately VA COULD be on your team. That it's more likely than alternatives.

On October 07 2013 10:46 s0Lstice wrote:


So despite the fact that your own presented evidence does not very well support the idea of me and Vayne being on the same team, you still conclude that we are in the end because its the least shitty of shitty options.

Yet over here ----> (+ Show Spoiler +) you have an option where we aren't scum together. The one where I'm town. And this doesn't rely on dubious linkage evidence. It relies on my claim evidence which aside from everyones Dr. Phil feels evidence totally checks out. See where I'm going with this?

On October 07 2013 10:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
I dreamt that you flipped scum so I think my vote is gonna stay on you