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On October 07 2013 05:04 Chairman Ray wrote:
I have read through all the copclaim stuff a few times now and I think I have a good read on what has happened.
It is clear through solstice's filter, and if he was scum, then this was all planned out very well. He gave a legitimate excuse for everything, even when he's on the spot and not given a lot of time to respond. This tells me that everything was preconstructed and thought over. Other alternative would be that he's genuinely the cop, but I wouldn't say that.
There could be two scenarios in this, solstice is the last banger, or solstice is the a part of the three man team.
If solstice is the last banger, then he intent may be to coordinate some sort of attack with the other scumteam. The only one I can think of would be to roleblock Koshi and then KP him. That would avoid Koshi's actions stopping or redirecting the kill. But what doesn't make sense is why that would be a better alternative than to use driveby and do it yourself the next night? Maybe he was just being very cautious and didn't want the worst case scenario where Koshi gets double weeded and double KPed by both teams. I think overall it is very unlikely that solstice is the last banger.
If solstice is a part of the three man team, then this was all planned out. We must see some sort of strategy that's being coordinated between 3 people. There are three ways that the scumteam can benefit from this. The first strategy is to bus solstice for it so they look town, so when solstice flips, the obvious targets would be those who tried to defend him. Many of us fit this right now. The second strategy is to actually try and get a mislynch on Koshi. If this were the case, one of the mafia would be someone who's asking the right questions to solstice in order to get the information out there that solstice may likely be town. I think WoS and austincc are most guilty of this right now. The last strategy is to prevent solstice from being lynched today by saying that it is a bad idea to lynch either solstice or koshi, and try to push for a mislynch. Austin fits this strategy. I would say that overall, it is quite likely that austin may actually be in a scumteam with solstice, even though my reads on him thus far have been town.
I would also like to bring up another scenario that hasn't been considered yet, and I think may be likely. I think that it could be the case that both solstice and cc are in the same mafia team and this is all a ploy. After the last banger and Koshi dies, the only thing the scumteam has to do to win is to get one person trusted, so that it will eventually be down to one mafia one town, and then mafia wins. Doing this kinda plan after Koshi and the last banger dies would be too suspicious, so they are doing it now, because Koshi and the last banger will die fairly soon. It's the perfect timing. So this ploy is basically to get CC confirmed as town. Then there's the question of who the last mafia member is. As I already stated, I think this was all preplanned and thought over. So if all mafia is trying to do is to make CC look town, they don't actually need an elaborate plan. Solstice can just flop and ragequit and it would accomplish the same thing. So who's taking advantage of the fact that Solstice is explaining everything very well? I think that person is austincc. He's asking the right questions to make solstice flesh out the plan, and then he's also pushing that we don't lynch solstice this turn and try to push the lynch onto another person. This tells me that the most likely three would be solstice/cc/ausintcc.
Either way, we have to lynch solstice today, since if he turns out to be the last banger, or even the cop, it would give us all the information we need to know exactly who to lynch the next day.
Jesus.
Why don't you post more often again?
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On October 07 2013 04:52 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:50 Pandain wrote:
I have to go unfortunately but these were my reasons:
1. I had a town read on Koshi up until the s0lstice claim. I would have at least been suspicious of him, but he played exactly like a cop even denying that he's cop and then eventually acknowledging it.
2. He's been slowly confirming townies which is what a cop should do . Furthermore all his confirmations in VE, Rayn, and Oats(less on Oats) I have town reads on.
That logic makes sense if he's town. On the other side of the coin we have s0Lstice, who is letting a confirmed liar confirm people as town and letting town lynch based on these confirmations. In the name of some plan to claim scum, hoping that town believes him and doesn't lynch the shit out of him. This is not how I expect a cop to act. Ever.
Our night actions do not break the rules by which you are judging me. On my side of the coin, you and WoS are confirmed, except we also killed a scum s&b.
I've already explained the thought processes behind why I chose to act the way i did in regards to Koshi. He 'confirmed' you, and then Rayn and oats. I didn't know what I thought of rayn, but I certainly didn't like Oats. This contributed to the change in opinion. I knew that if he indeed was going to be a townie acting as a cop to protect me he'd have to be fabricating night actions. Put yourself in my shoes for a second.
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If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds.
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Just leave the votes where they are. Really. I am cop. It should be obvious. If it isn't. You suck.
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On October 07 2013 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds. Right. They're alive tomorrow, almost certainly.
But we can kill not-them scum today, get a night that's PRETTY SOLID FOR TOWN, like either cop has pro-town stuff and we don't risk lynching the wrong one, and a flip today and flips tomorrow MAY tell us more about the situation.
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On October 07 2013 05:17 Koshi wrote:
Just leave the votes where they are. Really. I am cop. It should be obvious. If it isn't. You suck.
If this is how you're going to post honestly, then just shut up.
You're making a mockery of the rest of town who are actually attempting to put in effort to solve this game.
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On October 07 2013 05:06 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:04 Chairman Ray wrote:
I have read through all the copclaim stuff a few times now and I think I have a good read on what has happened.
It is clear through solstice's filter, and if he was scum, then this was all planned out very well. He gave a legitimate excuse for everything, even when he's on the spot and not given a lot of time to respond. This tells me that everything was preconstructed and thought over. Other alternative would be that he's genuinely the cop, but I wouldn't say that.
There could be two scenarios in this, solstice is the last banger, or solstice is the a part of the three man team.
If solstice is the last banger, then he intent may be to coordinate some sort of attack with the other scumteam. The only one I can think of would be to roleblock Koshi and then KP him. That would avoid Koshi's actions stopping or redirecting the kill. But what doesn't make sense is why that would be a better alternative than to use driveby and do it yourself the next night? Maybe he was just being very cautious and didn't want the worst case scenario where Koshi gets double weeded and double KPed by both teams. I think overall it is very unlikely that solstice is the last banger.
If solstice is a part of the three man team, then this was all planned out. We must see some sort of strategy that's being coordinated between 3 people. There are three ways that the scumteam can benefit from this. The first strategy is to bus solstice for it so they look town, so when solstice flips, the obvious targets would be those who tried to defend him. Many of us fit this right now. The second strategy is to actually try and get a mislynch on Koshi. If this were the case, one of the mafia would be someone who's asking the right questions to solstice in order to get the information out there that solstice may likely be town. I think WoS and austincc are most guilty of this right now. The last strategy is to prevent solstice from being lynched today by saying that it is a bad idea to lynch either solstice or koshi, and try to push for a mislynch. Austin fits this strategy. I would say that overall, it is quite likely that austin may actually be in a scumteam with solstice, even though my reads on him thus far have been town.
I would also like to bring up another scenario that hasn't been considered yet, and I think may be likely. I think that it could be the case that both solstice and cc are in the same mafia team and this is all a ploy. After the last banger and Koshi dies, the only thing the scumteam has to do to win is to get one person trusted, so that it will eventually be down to one mafia one town, and then mafia wins. Doing this kinda plan after Koshi and the last banger dies would be too suspicious, so they are doing it now, because Koshi and the last banger will die fairly soon. It's the perfect timing. So this ploy is basically to get CC confirmed as town. Then there's the question of who the last mafia member is. As I already stated, I think this was all preplanned and thought over. So if all mafia is trying to do is to make CC look town, they don't actually need an elaborate plan. Solstice can just flop and ragequit and it would accomplish the same thing. So who's taking advantage of the fact that Solstice is explaining everything very well? I think that person is austincc. He's asking the right questions to make solstice flesh out the plan, and then he's also pushing that we don't lynch solstice this turn and try to push the lynch onto another person. This tells me that the most likely three would be solstice/cc/ausintcc.
Either way, we have to lynch solstice today, since if he turns out to be the last banger, or even the cop, it would give us all the information we need to know exactly who to lynch the next day. Jesus. Why don't you post more often again?
I did some casual posting when the fakeclaim first started happening, but then it occurred to me that there's a good chance the other scum is a part of the discussion. The best read I could give is if I don't pollute the discussion.
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Like, regardless of who is truthful and who is lying, if we lynch NOT THEM SCUM, we have a pro-town night action GUARANTEED (either it goes off or scum waste KP stopping it).
And we have more info tomorrow.
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On October 07 2013 05:18 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds. Right. They're alive tomorrow, almost certainly. But we can kill not-them scum today, get a night that's PRETTY SOLID FOR TOWN, like either cop has pro-town stuff and we don't risk lynching the wrong one, and a flip today and flips tomorrow MAY tell us more about the situation.
Once again, you're assuming we hit scum tonight outside of the cops, which is a LOWER CHANCE THAN 50%.
Especially if we can't assume anymore that the confirmed people are truly confirmed (aside from VE).
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On October 07 2013 05:20 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:18 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds. Right. They're alive tomorrow, almost certainly. But we can kill not-them scum today, get a night that's PRETTY SOLID FOR TOWN, like either cop has pro-town stuff and we don't risk lynching the wrong one, and a flip today and flips tomorrow MAY tell us more about the situation. Once again, you're assuming we hit scum tonight outside of the cops, which is a LOWER CHANCE THAN 50%. Especially if we can't assume anymore that the confirmed people are truly confirmed (aside from VE). It's not lower than 50.
If it's lower than 50 we're all awful and don't deserve to win anyway. Don't give me that. If you don't have a > 50% scumread on D4 outside of those 2.....
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On October 07 2013 05:10 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:52 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 04:50 Pandain wrote:
I have to go unfortunately but these were my reasons:
1. I had a town read on Koshi up until the s0lstice claim. I would have at least been suspicious of him, but he played exactly like a cop even denying that he's cop and then eventually acknowledging it.
2. He's been slowly confirming townies which is what a cop should do . Furthermore all his confirmations in VE, Rayn, and Oats(less on Oats) I have town reads on.
That logic makes sense if he's town. On the other side of the coin we have s0Lstice, who is letting a confirmed liar confirm people as town and letting town lynch based on these confirmations. In the name of some plan to claim scum, hoping that town believes him and doesn't lynch the shit out of him. This is not how I expect a cop to act. Ever. Our night actions do not break the rules by which you are judging me. On my side of the coin, you and WoS are confirmed, except we also killed a scum s&b. I've already explained the thought processes behind why I chose to act the way i did in regards to Koshi. He 'confirmed' you, and then Rayn and oats. I didn't know what I thought of rayn, but I certainly didn't like Oats. This contributed to the change in opinion. I knew that if he indeed was going to be a townie acting as a cop to protect me he'd have to be fabricating night actions. Put yourself in my shoes for a second.
Oh s0L. Oh s0L. You have no idea. I've BEEN in your shoes. I've BEEN in crazy fucking claim situations like this before. Did I ever tell you about the time I was a detective and tried to convince town that one of my redchecks that flipped green was actually a DEATHMILLER? If you're town, I can assure you - no one understands the position you're in than me. But what you have to understand is that this all looks terribly suspect, and if you were actually the cop, this is something you would have HAD to factor in. The timing is suspicious, the circumstances are suspicious, EVERYTHING is suspicious about this. Surely you realize this.
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On October 07 2013 05:21 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:20 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 07 2013 05:18 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds. Right. They're alive tomorrow, almost certainly. But we can kill not-them scum today, get a night that's PRETTY SOLID FOR TOWN, like either cop has pro-town stuff and we don't risk lynching the wrong one, and a flip today and flips tomorrow MAY tell us more about the situation. Once again, you're assuming we hit scum tonight outside of the cops, which is a LOWER CHANCE THAN 50%. Especially if we can't assume anymore that the confirmed people are truly confirmed (aside from VE). It's not lower than 50. If it's lower than 50 we're all awful and don't deserve to win anyway. Don't give me that. If you don't have a > 50% scumread on D4 outside of those 2.....
Sorry Austin, it doesn't work that way.
Just because you're 'sure' someone is scum doesn't actually make them so until they flip.
My experience this game only proves that further. I don't care how right you've been or how right you feel you still are. You are not the entirety of the rest of town. The chances are lower than 50%.
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On October 07 2013 05:22 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:10 s0Lstice wrote:On October 07 2013 04:52 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 04:50 Pandain wrote:
I have to go unfortunately but these were my reasons:
1. I had a town read on Koshi up until the s0lstice claim. I would have at least been suspicious of him, but he played exactly like a cop even denying that he's cop and then eventually acknowledging it.
2. He's been slowly confirming townies which is what a cop should do . Furthermore all his confirmations in VE, Rayn, and Oats(less on Oats) I have town reads on.
That logic makes sense if he's town. On the other side of the coin we have s0Lstice, who is letting a confirmed liar confirm people as town and letting town lynch based on these confirmations. In the name of some plan to claim scum, hoping that town believes him and doesn't lynch the shit out of him. This is not how I expect a cop to act. Ever. Our night actions do not break the rules by which you are judging me. On my side of the coin, you and WoS are confirmed, except we also killed a scum s&b. I've already explained the thought processes behind why I chose to act the way i did in regards to Koshi. He 'confirmed' you, and then Rayn and oats. I didn't know what I thought of rayn, but I certainly didn't like Oats. This contributed to the change in opinion. I knew that if he indeed was going to be a townie acting as a cop to protect me he'd have to be fabricating night actions. Put yourself in my shoes for a second. Oh s0L. Oh s0L. You have no idea. I've BEEN in your shoes. I've BEEN in crazy fucking claim situations like this before. Did I ever tell you about the time I was a detective and tried to convince town that one of my redchecks that flipped green was actually a DEATHMILLER? If you're town, I can assure you - no one understands the position you're in than me. But what you have to understand is that this all looks terribly suspect, and if you were actually the cop, this is something you would have HAD to factor in. The timing is suspicious, the circumstances are suspicious, EVERYTHING is suspicious about this. Surely you realize this.
Of course I realize it! Yet here I am fighting you. How ridiculous this is is a non-factor from my point of view because I. AM. RIGHT. I realize I set myself up to make this nearly impossible to tell the truth and have it look believable, but I'm gonna be climbing that mountain right up until lynch time because I owe it to the town to not just get frustrated and let you lynch the wrong guy.
Do not close your mind yet. Do not lay out a final decision. There is plenty of time.
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Okay fine. I'll let you try to change my mind.
##Unvote
But I'm serious about having to leave. But I'll be watching from my phone.
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On October 07 2013 05:26 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:22 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 05:10 s0Lstice wrote:On October 07 2013 04:52 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 04:50 Pandain wrote:
I have to go unfortunately but these were my reasons:
1. I had a town read on Koshi up until the s0lstice claim. I would have at least been suspicious of him, but he played exactly like a cop even denying that he's cop and then eventually acknowledging it.
2. He's been slowly confirming townies which is what a cop should do . Furthermore all his confirmations in VE, Rayn, and Oats(less on Oats) I have town reads on.
That logic makes sense if he's town. On the other side of the coin we have s0Lstice, who is letting a confirmed liar confirm people as town and letting town lynch based on these confirmations. In the name of some plan to claim scum, hoping that town believes him and doesn't lynch the shit out of him. This is not how I expect a cop to act. Ever. Our night actions do not break the rules by which you are judging me. On my side of the coin, you and WoS are confirmed, except we also killed a scum s&b. I've already explained the thought processes behind why I chose to act the way i did in regards to Koshi. He 'confirmed' you, and then Rayn and oats. I didn't know what I thought of rayn, but I certainly didn't like Oats. This contributed to the change in opinion. I knew that if he indeed was going to be a townie acting as a cop to protect me he'd have to be fabricating night actions. Put yourself in my shoes for a second. Oh s0L. Oh s0L. You have no idea. I've BEEN in your shoes. I've BEEN in crazy fucking claim situations like this before. Did I ever tell you about the time I was a detective and tried to convince town that one of my redchecks that flipped green was actually a DEATHMILLER? If you're town, I can assure you - no one understands the position you're in than me. But what you have to understand is that this all looks terribly suspect, and if you were actually the cop, this is something you would have HAD to factor in. The timing is suspicious, the circumstances are suspicious, EVERYTHING is suspicious about this. Surely you realize this. Of course I realize it! Yet here I am fighting you. How ridiculous this is is a non-factor from my point of view because I. AM. RIGHT. I realize I set myself up to make this nearly impossible to tell the truth and have it look believable, but I'm gonna be climbing that mountain right up until lynch time because I owe it to the town to not just get frustrated and let you lynch the wrong guy. Do not close your mind yet. Do not lay out a final decision. There is plenty of time.
And it's shit like this that makes me really REALLY mad at Koshi if he is town.
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If we are lynching outside the cops we lynch Austin. That's so bad.
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Like I don't know what good it's going to do - half of the town thinks I'm irrational and incompetent, and won't listen to me. But whatever - if you can convince me that you're the cop then I won't vote to lynch you.
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Like, VE, you have a problem with me acting how I did as cop. Being a cop is fucking difficult. The only other time I've been 'blue' is in PTP where everyone was at least a little blue, and I basically got lynched day 1 there. It's just not a skill I have (right now anyway). I'll remind you too that I have NEVER been lynched. The two times where I've been even really close is here and PTP, both of which are related to blueness. This isn't a coincidence. At least do me a favor and go read my lone scum game that I have on my record and compare. It's Basterd Mini Mafia.
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On October 07 2013 05:28 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:26 s0Lstice wrote:On October 07 2013 05:22 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 05:10 s0Lstice wrote:On October 07 2013 04:52 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 04:50 Pandain wrote:
I have to go unfortunately but these were my reasons:
1. I had a town read on Koshi up until the s0lstice claim. I would have at least been suspicious of him, but he played exactly like a cop even denying that he's cop and then eventually acknowledging it.
2. He's been slowly confirming townies which is what a cop should do . Furthermore all his confirmations in VE, Rayn, and Oats(less on Oats) I have town reads on.
That logic makes sense if he's town. On the other side of the coin we have s0Lstice, who is letting a confirmed liar confirm people as town and letting town lynch based on these confirmations. In the name of some plan to claim scum, hoping that town believes him and doesn't lynch the shit out of him. This is not how I expect a cop to act. Ever. Our night actions do not break the rules by which you are judging me. On my side of the coin, you and WoS are confirmed, except we also killed a scum s&b. I've already explained the thought processes behind why I chose to act the way i did in regards to Koshi. He 'confirmed' you, and then Rayn and oats. I didn't know what I thought of rayn, but I certainly didn't like Oats. This contributed to the change in opinion. I knew that if he indeed was going to be a townie acting as a cop to protect me he'd have to be fabricating night actions. Put yourself in my shoes for a second. Oh s0L. Oh s0L. You have no idea. I've BEEN in your shoes. I've BEEN in crazy fucking claim situations like this before. Did I ever tell you about the time I was a detective and tried to convince town that one of my redchecks that flipped green was actually a DEATHMILLER? If you're town, I can assure you - no one understands the position you're in than me. But what you have to understand is that this all looks terribly suspect, and if you were actually the cop, this is something you would have HAD to factor in. The timing is suspicious, the circumstances are suspicious, EVERYTHING is suspicious about this. Surely you realize this. Of course I realize it! Yet here I am fighting you. How ridiculous this is is a non-factor from my point of view because I. AM. RIGHT. I realize I set myself up to make this nearly impossible to tell the truth and have it look believable, but I'm gonna be climbing that mountain right up until lynch time because I owe it to the town to not just get frustrated and let you lynch the wrong guy. Do not close your mind yet. Do not lay out a final decision. There is plenty of time. And it's shit like this that makes me really REALLY mad at Koshi if he is town.
+1
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this has nothing to do with your scum play though. We are talking about your town play here which you apparently have plenty of experience with...scum slip?
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EPT
