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On October 07 2013 04:52 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:50 Pandain wrote:
I have to go unfortunately but these were my reasons:
1. I had a town read on Koshi up until the s0lstice claim. I would have at least been suspicious of him, but he played exactly like a cop even denying that he's cop and then eventually acknowledging it.
2. He's been slowly confirming townies which is what a cop should do . Furthermore all his confirmations in VE, Rayn, and Oats(less on Oats) I have town reads on.
That logic makes sense if he's town. On the other side of the coin we have s0Lstice, who is letting a confirmed liar confirm people as town and letting town lynch based on these confirmations. In the name of some plan to claim scum, hoping that town believes him and doesn't lynch the shit out of him. This is not how I expect a cop to act. Ever.
This.
THIIIIIIS
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Austin.
The right play today is absolutely to lynch Solstice. No bones about it.
Again, the fact that basically everything you have said this game as been so antithetical to my thought processes this game is so fucking odd to me.
In which game were we both town together?
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Actually I do like what VE said about we should be aiming to lynch MCB today and I find it very unlikely that S0lstice is part of the last scum team.
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##Unvote
##Vote: s0Lstice
I think this is my final answer guys. If I'm wrong, I'm pretty meh about it.
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The question is do we go for a 95 % certain scum or go for the 60% chance of a MCB scum lynch
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I go with the 95% and hope the NKs shed some light for the remaining townies.
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SEE VE?
We agree on so much and have been thinking the same way on this.
Y u still gotta think I'm scum?
Alphonse.
Brother.
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On October 07 2013 04:57 WaveofShadow wrote:
SEE VE?
We agree on so much and have been thinking the same way on this.
Y u still gotta think I'm scum?
Alphonse.
Brother.
You've been saying I'm going to lose all game. You've been saying my team isn't good enough to win ALL GAME LONG. You're going to have to excuse my defensiveness against this sentiment.
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On October 07 2013 04:52 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:50 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 04:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
Actually it doesn't now that I'm thinking about it. We're at
7-1-3 right now I think. If we lynch the scum in the cop claims it's either
7-0-3 or 7-1-2
Assuming worst case (7-1-2) then tonight we could be looking at 3KP if DriveBy was used...making
4-1-2
So the game isn't OVER, per se, but we're definitely in a bad situation assuming scum kill the real cop and 2 of the confirmed town (Me/rayn/Oats if Koshi is cop, Me/Wave if s0L is cop) If we lynch NEITHER cop claimer today, the math is actually better for us tonight. Again, scum is either dealing with having to protect solstice OR dealing with an extra protect FROM solstice onto town The only way this is better for us is if scum removes some uncertainty by killing some townies the rest of town is unsure about. As is VE is likely dead since no vest and confirmed town by 'either' cop. They could probably kill Rayn too who people thought was town before being confirmed by Koshi. I'm not so sure it does help us and I don't know if that's worth the risk honestly. No. It's better for us. Look at each scenario:
koshi is a cop. solstice is mafia. koshi precision shoots solstice tonight (he says he has it available). Either:- koshi kills solstice (town favored)
- scum spend KP on a vest, put it on solstice (town favored, each team has 1 or 2 KP tonight, so spending ANY means a whole KP they don't get to use)
- scum spend KP on a bag of weed, roleblock koshi (same as above)
In all three cases where koshi is a cop and solstice is mafia, mafia either loses solstice OR loses 1 KP tonight in order to keep up the cop charade.
solstice is a cop. koshi is mafia. solstice says he has no more precision shot and prius was hiro. So he Hollywood CPRs someone tonight. Either:- Scum shoot that dude (town favored)
- Scum doublestack that dude (he dies through protect, but still town-favored, 2 KP for 1 kill)
- Scum avoids the protection
- Scum spend KP to roleblock solstice (town favored)
With solstice a cop and koshi mafia, mafia either loses a KP tonight OR mafia chances are slightly reduced by 1 protect, but they still hit with all shots. In no scenario are we in WORSE shape.
ALL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS are better for town. Even if solstice is cop and protect misses, the odds are worse for scum tonight.
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VE. Tell me why we lynch into those two TODAY rather than maybe TOMORROW (or maybe not having to).
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On October 07 2013 04:58 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:57 WaveofShadow wrote:
SEE VE?
We agree on so much and have been thinking the same way on this.
Y u still gotta think I'm scum?
Alphonse.
Brother. You've been saying I'm going to lose all game. You've been saying my team isn't good enough to win ALL GAME LONG. You're going to have to excuse my defensiveness against this sentiment.
You cut me deep.
It's my team too, but you've had more faith than me from the start. Excuse me if the monstrosity that was last game shattered my dreams a little. You know for somebody who is so harsh with me about my attitude at the start of this game, remember that I didn't modkill myself out of rage.
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On October 07 2013 04:54 WaveofShadow wrote:
Austin.
The right play today is absolutely to lynch Solstice. No bones about it.
Again, the fact that basically everything you have said this game as been so antithetical to my thought processes this game is so fucking odd to me.
In which game were we both town together? I assume some.
Nuclear.
Possibly older games like ... Liquid City? GSL 2 or the GSL 3 game? Pokemon PTP? Rockband? Apart from nuclear I don't remember any specific.
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Also food for thought when was S0lstice EVER hoping to claim cop? Day 5?
Would make more sense to just shoot koshi
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VOTE COUNT:
s0Lstice (9) : Mr. Cheesecake, WaveofShadow, VayneAuthority, Chairman Ray, raynpelikoneet, Pandain, Koshi, Oatsmaster, VisceraEyes
Koshi (1) : s0Lstice, Oatsmaster (X), austinmcc (X)
Chairman Ray (0) : austinmcc (X), WaveofShadow (X)
Mr. Cheesecake (0) : Oatsmaster (X)
Pandain (0) : Koshi (X), VayneAuthority (X)
VayneAuthority (0) : Chairman Ray (X)
WaveofShadow (0) : Pandain (X)
Not voting (1) : austinmcc
+ Show Spoiler [Details] +
Lynch is in 24 hours. Voting is mandatory.
Currently s0lstice is set to be lynched!
If you see any votes out of place please inform me or someone else on the hosting team so that we can correct it.
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On October 07 2013 05:02 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:54 WaveofShadow wrote:
Austin.
The right play today is absolutely to lynch Solstice. No bones about it.
Again, the fact that basically everything you have said this game as been so antithetical to my thought processes this game is so fucking odd to me.
In which game were we both town together? I assume some. Nuclear. Possibly older games like ... Liquid City? GSL 2 or the GSL 3 game? Pokemon PTP? Rockband? Apart from nuclear I don't remember any specific.
Probably just Nuclear then.
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On October 07 2013 05:03 cakepie wrote:VOTE COUNT: s0Lstice (9) : Mr. Cheesecake, WaveofShadow, VayneAuthority, Chairman Ray, raynpelikoneet, Pandain, Koshi, Oatsmaster, VisceraEyesKoshi (1) : s0Lstice, Oatsmaster (X), austinmcc (X)Chairman Ray (0) : austinmcc (X), WaveofShadow (X)Mr. Cheesecake (0) : Oatsmaster (X)Pandain (0) : Koshi (X), VayneAuthority (X)VayneAuthority (0) : Chairman Ray (X)WaveofShadow (0) : Pandain (X)Not voting (1) : austinmcc + Show Spoiler [Details] +Lynch is in 24 hours. Voting is mandatory.
Currently s0lstice is set to be lynched!
If you see any votes out of place please inform me or someone else on the hosting team so that we can correct it.
Just looking at the votecount makes me feel really good.
I can't really think of a time Town lynched town when the voting was almost unanimous like this.
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Look at those scenarios. Tell me why town is better off lynching into the cops today than tomorrow.
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I have read through all the copclaim stuff a few times now and I think I have a good read on what has happened.
It is clear through solstice's filter, and if he was scum, then this was all planned out very well. He gave a legitimate excuse for everything, even when he's on the spot and not given a lot of time to respond. This tells me that everything was preconstructed and thought over. Other alternative would be that he's genuinely the cop, but I wouldn't say that.
There could be two scenarios in this, solstice is the last banger, or solstice is the a part of the three man team.
If solstice is the last banger, then he intent may be to coordinate some sort of attack with the other scumteam. The only one I can think of would be to roleblock Koshi and then KP him. That would avoid Koshi's actions stopping or redirecting the kill. But what doesn't make sense is why that would be a better alternative than to use driveby and do it yourself the next night? Maybe he was just being very cautious and didn't want the worst case scenario where Koshi gets double weeded and double KPed by both teams. I think overall it is very unlikely that solstice is the last banger.
If solstice is a part of the three man team, then this was all planned out. We must see some sort of strategy that's being coordinated between 3 people. There are three ways that the scumteam can benefit from this. The first strategy is to bus solstice for it so they look town, so when solstice flips, the obvious targets would be those who tried to defend him. Many of us fit this right now. The second strategy is to actually try and get a mislynch on Koshi. If this were the case, one of the mafia would be someone who's asking the right questions to solstice in order to get the information out there that solstice may likely be town. I think WoS and austincc are most guilty of this right now. The last strategy is to prevent solstice from being lynched today by saying that it is a bad idea to lynch either solstice or koshi, and try to push for a mislynch. Austin fits this strategy. I would say that overall, it is quite likely that austin may actually be in a scumteam with solstice, even though my reads on him thus far have been town.
I would also like to bring up another scenario that hasn't been considered yet, and I think may be likely. I think that it could be the case that both solstice and cc are in the same mafia team and this is all a ploy. After the last banger and Koshi dies, the only thing the scumteam has to do to win is to get one person trusted, so that it will eventually be down to one mafia one town, and then mafia wins. Doing this kinda plan after Koshi and the last banger dies would be too suspicious, so they are doing it now, because Koshi and the last banger will die fairly soon. It's the perfect timing. So this ploy is basically to get CC confirmed as town. Then there's the question of who the last mafia member is. As I already stated, I think this was all preplanned and thought over. So if all mafia is trying to do is to make CC look town, they don't actually need an elaborate plan. Solstice can just flop and ragequit and it would accomplish the same thing. So who's taking advantage of the fact that Solstice is explaining everything very well? I think that person is austincc. He's asking the right questions to make solstice flesh out the plan, and then he's also pushing that we don't lynch solstice this turn and try to push the lynch onto another person. This tells me that the most likely three would be solstice/cc/ausintcc.
Either way, we have to lynch solstice today, since if he turns out to be the last banger, or even the cop, it would give us all the information we need to know exactly who to lynch the next day.
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On October 07 2013 05:04 austinmcc wrote:
Look at those scenarios. Tell me why town is better off lynching into the cops today than tomorrow.
Because you're assuming we hit scum outside of the cops.
Again, bad assumptions.
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On October 07 2013 05:04 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:03 cakepie wrote:VOTE COUNT: s0Lstice (9) : Mr. Cheesecake, WaveofShadow, VayneAuthority, Chairman Ray, raynpelikoneet, Pandain, Koshi, Oatsmaster, VisceraEyesKoshi (1) : s0Lstice, Oatsmaster (X), austinmcc (X)Chairman Ray (0) : austinmcc (X), WaveofShadow (X)Mr. Cheesecake (0) : Oatsmaster (X)Pandain (0) : Koshi (X), VayneAuthority (X)VayneAuthority (0) : Chairman Ray (X)WaveofShadow (0) : Pandain (X)Not voting (1) : austinmcc + Show Spoiler [Details] +Lynch is in 24 hours. Voting is mandatory.
Currently s0lstice is set to be lynched!
If you see any votes out of place please inform me or someone else on the hosting team so that we can correct it. Just looking at the votecount makes me feel really good. I can't really think of a time Town lynched town when the voting was almost unanimous like this. D2? The votes were split, but nearly unanimously on townies. It's different but same!
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EPT
