EPTOnegu is town
Alakaslam is scum
Hurricane has a power role
Alakaslam is town
Onegu is scum
Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN
Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane
Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 62
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane has a power role Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then either the Scum team quickly guessed that Hurricane was Onegu's town read, or the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. | ||
|
Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Or: Why Onegu is town and Alakaslam is scum We can examine three possible situations here: Situation 1
+ Show Spoiler + Why did Onegu fake-claim what he did? In my opinion, fake-claiming Watcher is inherently a risky proposition for two reasons: 1) It is likely that there is a town Watcher or Tracker, and either of these could counterclaim you (the counterclaim from the Tracker is uncertain and probably won't happen immediately, but I very strongly doubt that there is a Parity Cop, Watcher and Tracker for town - too much investigative power). 2) All it takes is one person to have visited your target that you don't know about and you are completely busted. Claiming Tracker is inherently less risky, since you can perfectly replicate that with a scum power. Veteran less risky still, since you don't even have to fake any powers and it's perfectly explainable why scum haven't shot you. My guess is that Hurricane will claim Nosy Neighbor (which we could believe with much more certainty if he'd claimed it Day 1... just saying...), so if scum happened to track Hurricane then they might use that to partially "confirm" Onegu's power. It doesn't really matter what he claims though. I also don't think the time that Onegu chose to claim Watcher is particularly indicative that he is scum. I would think that scum would only take such a risk if they thought they were very likely to be lynched, just the same as a townie would only claim it (without evidence to convict scum) if he thought he was very likely to be lynched. In either case, seeing as Onegu knew he would largely be unavailable today, he wanted to get it out in the open fairly early so he would have enough time to discuss it. Summary: Onegu's Watcher claim makes very little sense as a scum fake-claim. Fakeclaiming Watcher is inherently risky since even if scum knows that somebody visited Alakaslam, they cannot possibly know that nobody else visited Alakaslam. I also don't see the timing of it as inherently scummy, nor do I think his target is completely unbelievable if he is town (see below). Situation 2
+ Show Spoiler + Why did Onegu check Alakaslam? + Show Spoiler + Damned if I know. Maybe he was hoping to catch the framer? Alakaslam is one of the most likely people in the thread to be framed IMO regardless of his alignment. (Yes, framer can frame either alignment to be its opposite, I checked.) PRE-EDIT: This is indeed the reason that Onegu claims to have watched Alakaslam. I wrote the above before he claimed this, so the fact that we are both thinking the same way is major town-points in my book. With all respect to him and his play (since I think he was the only one of us voting scum Day 1  ), based on his play so far I don't expect we can reasonably expect for Onegu to have made the optimal decision with his night actions. Watcher is a very uncommon role, and Onegu isn't very experienced. You can say "why didn't he ask his coach?" but the sad fact is that most townies don't consult with their coaches as much as they should :/If he truly had no idea who the nightkill would be then I can see what he did as a reasonable play. tl;dr If Onegu had watched someone more likely to be killed my townread on him would be better, but I don't think a suboptimal decision with his Watcher power is sufficient grounds to lynch him, especially considering the sheer unlikeliness of Watcher as a fakeclaim. When comparing an unlikely option to a stupid and incredibly unlikely one, I prefer unlikely. Why did Onegu claim when he did? I don't see anything wrong with his explanation: On June 28 2013 19:28 Onegu wrote: I was going to sleep and I wanted to get the information out there, I knew I would be busy and I felt like the information was important to create a good town atmosphere and help people make reads with the information I provided. Why did Alakaslam fake-claim Tracker? + Show Spoiler + Hypothesis: Besides Alakaslam, the scumteam is composed of two players from the set {Spicydinosaur, StiMaDDict, LoneMeow}. I personally think that at least one, and probably two, of these three are scum. + Show Spoiler + Even if you don't agree with this hypothesis, all that is required to follow the following argument is that removing Onegu as a possible mislynch greatly decreases the likelihood that scum can secure the required mislynches for victory. I don't think this is debatable. At the start of the day, scum required two more mislynches from town to win. The playerlist was as follows: + Show Spoiler + Hurricane Sponge FirmTofu Aquanim hzflank Alakaslam LoneMeow Spicydinosaur StiMaDDict Onegu I think all of the names in green are town and I don't think scum could reasonably expect to mislynch any of us. However, they don't need to: two of the other names are town and are reasonable mislynches for scum to aim for. However, if Onegu is confirmed town through his claim, the list looks like this: + Show Spoiler + Hurricane Sponge FirmTofu Aquanim hzflank Alakaslam LoneMeow Spicydinosaur StiMaDDict Onegu There are now not enough plausible mislynches for scum to win. Clearly they are going to have to do something drastic. To get enough mislynches in this situation, scum have to convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum. The most plausible way to do this is to find a way to counter Onegu's claim, since there is still some thread sentiment against him, and without the claim FirmTofu at least has proved his desire to see Onegu lynched. Alakaslam is probably the most expendable of the scumteam, since there have been widespread suspicions of him in the thread, and if he starts saying anything meaningful in the thread to further a scum agenda it will be utterly uncharacteristic of his previous play; therefore he is the obvious member of the scumteam to claim. If Alakaslam is in fact telling the truth, he happens to be the tracker, who happened to track the one person who claimed today, to someone who he claims not to have visited. It is an incredibly convenient claim - in fact, I think it's the only claim he could have made which would make Onegu scum, besides straight-up counterclaiming as Watcher. As I said in the first section, Watcher is a risky fakeclaim for scum. (Since Onegu would have claimed to have been roleblocked if he had been, as either alignment, JK would not have worked to make Onegu scum.) Sure, if we lynch Onegu first Alakaslam will be the next one to die. However, at that point we will be at LYLO, which gives scum a good chance to win; that's more chance than I think they had before Alakaslam's claim. (This rationale doesn't apply to Onegu's hypothetical fakeclaim because at the point he claimed the scumteam would have had no expectation at all that they could trade lynching someone else, like Alakaslam, for lynching Onegu.) tl;dr If Onegu became confirmed town there aren't enough plausible mislynch targets left for scum to win. Scum had to stop this at any cost. They don't mind trading Alakaslam for Onegu. Summary: There is a clear scum motivation for Alakaslam to claim Tracker, and the way that his track implicates the recently claimed Watcher is incredibly convenient. Situation 3
Summary: Unlikely but concievable as some master scum move. As far as today goes we can't go wrong by lynching either of them anyway if this is true so I intend to ignore this situation for now. Fakeclaiming Watcher is inherently risky for scum. Scum do not like to take risks. Fakeclaiming Tracker is inherently less risky. If Alakaslam is scum they know Alakaslam will be confirmed scum after Onegu flips. Even so, they could be confident enough in lynching Onegu first, and happy enough with a one-for-one trade (which further allows them to kill two town leaders before serious lynch discussions recommence), to make it a winning proposition for them. This is particularly true since failing in this gambit has almost exactly the same consequences as not trying it at all, i.e. a likely town win. Previous to their claims I thought Alakaslam was much more likely to be scum than Onegu based on the character of their play, and nothing about these fakeclaims changes that for me. My vote is staying on Alakaslam. I want anyone who disagrees with this read to say exactly what in the above case, and in my previous investigations of Onegu and Alakaslam, they disagree with. | ||
|
Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 20:57 hzflank wrote: Simplified: Onegu is town Alakaslam is scum Hurricane has a power role Alakaslam is town Onegu is scum Hurricane is town JK, tracker, or NN Mafia Tracker tracked Hurricane If "power role" in case 1 includes NN and scum roles I think this is correct. | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 28 2013 21:01 hzflank wrote: I think I can make a case against Alakaslam in one sentence: Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then either the Scum team quickly guessed that Hurricane was Onegu's town read, or the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. If Alakaslam is town then Onegu is scum and so his "town read" is irrelevant. I think this should read: Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. which isn't totally implausible. Furthermore, if they hadn't Onegu could easily have just claimed that nobody visited whoever he targeted. (Like I said, though, this has the inherent risk that someone did - just like any fakeclaim of Watcher. I agree that Alakaslam is by far the most likely of the two to be scum, but I don't think this reason quite holds water. | ||
|
Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Scum essentially have to shoot a Watcher since he is too great a threat to them. A Tracker? - not so much. There's a reasonable chance that they won't target the scum, at least not the ones with the nightkill. Scum could plausibly shoot a strong townie over the Tracker IMO, if only to introduce WIFOM. A Watcher, on the other hand, is much more likely to watch the nightkill target - and get a basically confirmed scum every time he does. If a claimed Watcher doesn't die he is very likely to be scum - Watcher is a crazy powerful town role. | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On June 28 2013 21:06 Aquanim wrote: If Alakaslam is town then Onegu is scum and so his "town read" is irrelevant. I think this should read: Apply Occam's Razor: if Alakaslam is town then the Mafia Tracker targetted Hurricane. which isn't totally implausible. Furthermore, if they hadn't Onegu could easily have just claimed that nobody visited whoever he targeted. (Like I said, though, this has the inherent risk that someone did - just like any fakeclaim of Watcher. I agree that Alakaslam is by far the most likely of the two to be scum, but I don't think this reason quite holds water. Your base is better than mine  However, Onegu said in his claim that someone visited his target. He could not then say that no one did without getting lynched. If Onegu is scum then the Mafia Tracker targeted Hurricane. Furthermore, that means that if Onegu is scum then the scum team knew that Hurricane had a power role before Onegu's claim. They need a mislynch on the watcher today so that they can shoot out other confirmed power role on night 2. | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
The scum team knew at the start of day 2 that Hurricane has a role. This does not go any further  I should think before posting. | ||
|
Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
On June 28 2013 20:25 hzflank wrote: So they happen to watch Hurricane, who happens to have a power role, who happens to use it on the same person that you pick to watch. Specifically, we need to look at why the scum chose to track Hurricane. This is important. Btw, it was no accident that our cop died on night 1. Look at Chromatically's filter, he was telegraphing cop. Unfortunately the town did not pick up on this a provide any cover (by acting like a cop). The scum picked up on it though and therefore they are obviously trying to work out who has roles. Thats a hell of a lot of coincidences. Also by reading thread has hurricane actually confirmed he visited alakaslam or are we just assuming it? | ||
|
Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
On June 28 2013 09:01 FirmTofu wrote: No, not hypocritical. Telling you why you are a town read for me serves to purpose except to derail the thread into a tangent about you. I had one purpose back when I said that, and that was to push my biggest scum read (Onegu). On the other hand, when Onegu keeps is in the dark here, scum is the only party that gains an advantage. He can't just claim, run off to bed without clarifying his night actions, and expect to get off scot-free. We have over 24 hours till voting is done. We can and should discuss more than just onegu. You pegged me for scum and now im town, that seems like a very important revelation. If anyone else switched off their scum target and says they think they are town now, you would be all over them asking why. You should be no different. | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On June 28 2013 21:48 Spicydinosaur wrote: Just caught up on 10 pages of thread. Thats a hell of a lot of coincidences. Also by reading thread has hurricane actually confirmed he visited alakaslam or are we just assuming it? Hurricane confirmed it. I did not like the way that he confirmed it, as you will read. However, Hurricane was my strongest town read and he was extremely tired at the time. | ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
| ||
|
Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
On June 28 2013 22:06 hzflank wrote: Hurricane confirmed it. I did not like the way that he confirmed it, as you will read. However, Hurricane was my strongest town read and he was extremely tired at the time. Yeah the way it was reading it seemed like he was alluding to it and everyone else just made the connection. I have a town read on hurricane as well since the vote, and his reaction to this whole thing has been sincere. I dont see a reason he would be lying at this point | ||
|
Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
Scum Onegu: Onegu had pressure on him early D2, nothing overwhelming but it was there. He panics, fake claims watcher and picks alakaslam. There was no real strategic advantage to claiming this early as others have pointed out. This only works if scum have happened to be watching Hurricane the night before and he ended up on alakaslam. This also only works if scum knew hurricane had a role where he to visit someone (so no vt, veteran). This also works if Hurricane is scum with onegu and they had this planned all along, with onegu either tracking/framing hurricane and hurricane either not doing anything that night or track/framed alakslam. All of the above is predicated on there being a plan in place already. It seems a much easier route would be for scum onegu to easily have picked another town role, say veteran and that would ensure his safety for at least another day due to people not wanting to risk killing 2 blues in a day, plus with the added assurance that if another person claimed veteran, it doesnt necessarily conflict. Town Onegu: Similar start, Onegu gets pressure, panics and claims. Everything he says is true and that Alakaslam is scum. Hurricane confirms what he Onegu has said, which doesnt automatically mean hurricane is town as he could still could have been framing alakaslam. So alakslam counter claims and says he actually tracked onegu and HE visited hurricane. Obviously with tracking theres no way to back that up as there wasnt a role block on hurricane. So assuming alakslam is scum, why would he claim this? Well it would implicate 2 people (onegu and hurricane) and kill a blue. The scum onegu scenario is a lot more complicated and has a lot more assumptions as hz put it. On June 28 2013 20:25 hzflank wrote: So they happen to watch Hurricane, who happens to have a power role, who happens to use it on the same person that you pick to watch. As this vote can truly go either way, this isnt final but town onegu seems more likely at this point. ##Vote: Alakaslam | ||
|
Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
| ||
|
hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On June 29 2013 00:09 Spicydinosaur wrote: EBWOP: It seems a much easier route would be for scum onegu to easily have picked another town role, say veteran and that would ensure his safety for at least another day due to people not wanting to risk killing 2 blues in a row, plus with the added assurance that if another person claimed veteran, it doesnt necessarily conflict. I disagree. Why would a Vet claim save him? There is no way for town to ever confirm his Vet claim. There is no good reason for him to claim Vet at that time. In fact, if he had claimed Vet I would of seen it as a scummy claim. | ||
|
Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
On June 29 2013 00:21 hzflank wrote: I disagree. Why would a Vet claim save him? There is no way for town to ever confirm his Vet claim. There is no good reason for him to claim Vet at that time. In fact, if he had claimed Vet I would of seen it as a scummy claim. I used vet as an example. It increases his chances i think, at the very least it would give more pause to people wanting to lynch him. There was still over 24 hours left in the day before the vote when he claimed, so it would probably come down to a blue claiming onegu vs someone else. That blue claim may have given him an edge. Some people may not have believed it but it does give people pause is all im saying. | ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
It seems I am going to have to convince hzflank because Aquanim doesn't look convincable at this point. | ||
| ||
