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As it's important to say everything right now, I figured I'll throw these key points out there:
IN GENERAL:
Tracking Scum makes sense (track the guy you think may take the shot)
Watching Townies (NK targets) makes sense (watch the victim and you get the killer's name)
Tracking Townies doesn't make sense (as a townie. It obviously makes sense as scum)
Watching scum makes sense IN ONE VERY SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCE
If our Watcher cannot give us this reason, he obviously did not do it for that reason. And thus, in this instance, his Watch target did not make sense.
Alakaslam is claiming to be a Town Tracker. He 'tracked' a scum read. According to the above, this makes sense.
Onegu is claiming to be a Town Watcher. He 'watched' a scum read. According to the above, this does not make sense.
Even if the two claims weren't incompatible, the play motivation must be considered like this.
Regarding the Watcher target:
This in a vacuum could be explained by Bad Play, but in conjunction with reports from a Tracker claiming otherwise, it paints a significantly more sinister picture.
No one is disputing that Onegu acquired knowledge last night. By some means, he deduced something that likely happened. However, it is not just a Watcher that could have figured that out. Indeed, it is actually MORE LIKELY in this scenario for a Mafia Tracker or a Mafia Framer to figure it out!
A mafia Tracker could choose to 'track' a high-profile townie for various reasons
A mafia Framer would CERTAINLY choose to follow THE MOST HIGH PROFILE TOWNIE NOT BEING SHOT THAT NIGHT. (If you don't know why, we need to get you back to Mafia School. At the time actions were declared, the Parity Cop was alive. Mafia know that the Cop will check his scummiest read vs. his towniest read. The framer's play is to figure out who is most everyone's towniest read, barring the person who is getting shot that night, and pay them a visit, essentially flipping their alignment and throwing the Parity Cop off course.)
Both of these situations could explain how Onegu acquired the knowledge he did, and neither situation conflicts with Alakaslam's story.
From the flipside, to claim that 'Slam is lying and scum, while Onegu is Town and a Watcher:
Our town Watcher picked scum to watch for the night (sub-optimal use of the power, when there was a very clear target on the board)
The Scum Tracker ('slam) tracked a townie who was under significant pressure and likely to be next-day lynched (Onegu)
I know assuming optimal play is folly in a newbie game, but I'd like to assume my teammates and opponents aren't this terrible at this.
Unless Onegu is a second Town Tracker and randomly lied by saying he's a Watcher, or came up with the luckiest guess in the history of lucky guesses to start today, there is no situation I can think of currently that Onegu is not scum.
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IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE TO CORRECT ME IF ANY OF THE ABOVE LOGIC IS WRONG. THESE ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS MY DECISIONS ARE BASED ON, AND IF I AM TO RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW INFORMATION IT WILL TAKE TIME
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On June 28 2013 18:16 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote:On June 28 2013 16:05 hzflank wrote:
It's obvious so I will put this out there. If Onegu is town then I am confident of who his number 1 town read is. I want to see that player posting before any blue claims are made. Ignore this statement if it is irrelevant to yours. Remember that Hurricane pushed for Onegu's lynch. This post is not to help the town, but rather to show Firm how my mind is working: The biggest reason why I think that Hurricane is town is because when I scumhunt on him I feel like he is also scumhunting on me. When I look at some other people is has looked like when they scumhunt on me they are actually looking for a scapegoat. If Hurricane made a case against me on Day 3 I would make a case against a third party. If Hurricane thinks that I am scum that does not mean that I think he is scum. In fact in my case, it almost seems that Hurricane is the only person who is actually scumhunting in my direction. Therefore, the fact that Hurricane voted for Onegu does not mean that Onegu thinks that Hurricane is scummy. Onegu has stated that many people are scummy but he has not given away many town reads. When I tried to work out his town reads I got Hurricane and myself. Who else? Spicy might be his third read, but if Onegu is town then Hurricane and myself are his top 2 town reads. I did not visit Alakaslam on night 1, and it appears that Hurricane did not either.
You had me til the end. It is unconfirmed if Hurricane visited Alakaslam at this time.
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On June 28 2013 17:58 LoneMeow wrote:
Hurricane, I feel you're grasping at straws with your town-town scenario, why would you do that? Who's scum if they're both town?
Because once I can rule out town-town, then we're really onto something. I'm not going to just assume scum-town when all it takes is a little legwork to completely rule out town-town.
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Hurricane, I agree that watching a scum suspect is suboptimal play as a Watcher. I would like you to think about the possible rationale behind fake-claiming Watcher and to have watched somebody visit Alakaslam as scum in Onegu's position.
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On June 28 2013 17:58 Aquanim wrote:
Hurricane and hzflank, I would like to confirm that you two will be in the thread before the lynch and you will have plenty of time to read the arguments I will be posting. With your two votes (assuming LoneMeow does not switch), we will have five votes (enough to ensure an Alakaslam lynch), if I can convince
I believe that of these two Alakaslam is the scum. I don't trust Spicy or StiMaDDict to listen to me (because I suspect they're scum) and I don't think that FirmTofu is capable of detunneling from Onegu at this point. I will need both of you to listen to turn around this lynch.
Any information you have is good, but at this point, today's lynch is likely to be settled by facts, not reads. The two claims we've received are a gift from god for the town at this juncture of the game. Any argument you have should likely revolve around them.
(Yes, I will be around)
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If you visited Alakaslam last night then your vote would now be on Alakaslam.
Onegu claimed he saw someone visit Alakaslam. If you visited Alakaslam then you would of gone: "Oh, Onegu saw me, he is telling the truth".
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On June 28 2013 18:26 Aquanim wrote:
Hurricane, I agree that watching a scum suspect is suboptimal play as a Watcher. I would like you to think about the possible rationale behind fake-claiming Watcher and to have watched somebody visit Alakaslam as scum in Onegu's position.
If this is gonna work, you're going need to speak plain, or I'll need to get some sleep and get at this with a fresh brain. Is the information you're trying to convey too sensitive to just say outright? If so, I will put mental energy into this as you have requested.
(But I won't like it.)
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On June 28 2013 18:28 hzflank wrote:
If you visited Alakaslam last night then your vote would now be on Alakaslam.
Onegu claimed he saw someone visit Alakaslam. If you visited Alakaslam then you would of gone: "Oh, Onegu saw me, he is telling the truth".
Why does Onegu seeing me mean he's the Town Watcher? He could be a Mafia Tracker.
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God dammit, did I botch this hz? Check out my huge post at the top of the page, I may have stepped in it. (it's 5:30am now)
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On June 28 2013 18:31 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 18:26 Aquanim wrote:
Hurricane, I agree that watching a scum suspect is suboptimal play as a Watcher. I would like you to think about the possible rationale behind fake-claiming Watcher and to have watched somebody visit Alakaslam as scum in Onegu's position. If this is gonna work, you're going need to speak plain, or I'll need to get some sleep and get at this with a fresh brain. Is the information you're trying to convey too sensitive to just say outright? If so, I will put mental energy into this as you have requested. (But I won't like it.)
Nah, I just wanted you to think about it for yourself to see if you came to the same conclusion I did. I'm still working on my post (could take a while) but I'll explain my point then.
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It may be moot. HZ seems to think that if I visited 'slam, my vote should be on him. I'm trying to figure out just why that is now.
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On June 28 2013 18:32 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 18:28 hzflank wrote:
If you visited Alakaslam last night then your vote would now be on Alakaslam.
Onegu claimed he saw someone visit Alakaslam. If you visited Alakaslam then you would of gone: "Oh, Onegu saw me, he is telling the truth". Why does Onegu seeing me mean he's the Town Watcher? He could be a Mafia Tracker.
No, I botched it. You are correct. Onegu could be Mafia tracker.
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Could be, but is it likely? What's to stop the mafia from deducing that I was Watcher Onegu's target, and sending their Tracker into the thread to claim?
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Yeah, we need to slow this pain train down. Right now, I have to decide whether my opponents are smart enough to come up with Alakaslam's claim.
It still doesn't explain why Onegu made such a horrible play as our Watcher though.
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Then we have to go back to: Why would Watch Onegu choose to watch Alakaslam?
Also: How did the scum team know that you were Onegu's number 1 town read? it could of been you or me. They would of had to of guessed.
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I only knew that you were Onegu's number one town read because I did not visit Alakaslam last night. No one else should of known for sure that you were his town read.
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Well, this was a whole bunch of useless. Guess I'll get to sleep. Aqua, I'm now 50/50 on 'slam and onegu.
The one useful thing we got out of all this is that (barring a mod PM otherwise) we know that Alakaslam and Onegu are opposite alignments. Which is good.
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On June 28 2013 18:40 hzflank wrote:
Then we have to go back to: Why would Watch Onegu choose to watch Alakaslam?
Also: How did the scum team know that you were Onegu's number 1 town read? it could of been you or me. They would of had to of guessed.
It's a risky guess, but in the scum's eyes, they're probably more willing to throw Alakaslam to the wolves than any other member. I'm probably reaching. Simplest explanation is probably the best, but we certainly need to keep an open mind. Aqua will be doing us the favor of taking up the charge for 'Slam's lynch tomorrow (or rather, later today).
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EBWOP: (I am going to be for real this time. I don't know when I'll be back, but I will stay active starting in 5 or 6 hours)
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I will let you get some sleep. This is going to get complicated. Lets do it when you wake up.
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EPT
