EPTI really haven't looked into promes filter carefully enough
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
I really haven't looked into promes filter carefully enough | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On May 21 2013 02:47 kushm4sta wrote: prome what do you mean they shot you and you were protected? any indication of that happening via pm? you think you were jked or what? I wasn't informed of anything so I was not JK'd. But the bum rush at me as SK from scum today suggests to me that scum shot me last night and seeing me not die went all out today. I have no proof of this but basic analysis suggest that this was the case. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
Second, you're sure about Kush? Simply the fact that I want to lynch him less this game now that he's doing shit makes me almost want to lynch him MORE, in that it's not very kush-like. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
If anyone is around sound off. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On May 21 2013 02:50 Promethelax wrote: I wasn't informed of anything so I was not JK'd. But the bum rush at me as SK from scum today suggests to me that scum shot me last night and seeing me not die went all out today. I have no proof of this but basic analysis suggest that this was the case. And also how the fuck is this possible? Why make this kind of an assumption with absolutely nothing to back it up? | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Remember earlier when you said I was either brilliant or scum? If you believe that I was good enough to read you like a book assume that I can read thread progression after a scum nk goes missing in a game with a probable sk. You saying that is like someone from Mafia Scum saying 'why lynch day one when no power roles have gotten any information for us, there is nothing to back up a day one lynch' sure that is technically true but it isn't hard to think it though and figure out who is scum. Or in this case to figure out who was shot. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On May 21 2013 02:50 Promethelax wrote: I wasn't informed of anything so I was not JK'd. But the bum rush at me as SK from scum today suggests to me that scum shot me last night and seeing me not die went all out today. I have no proof of this but basic analysis suggest that this was the case. Still thinking about the cases on and by promethelax. need to read some more. but here's a thing - protective roles *are* informed if they block a kp. that means if prome is telling the truth, there's some medic out there who knows it. Of course, he could still be scum or sk even if the medic protected him, but it would answer sloosh's "bulletproof SK" speculation on the missing night kill. they probably shouldn't claim since scum would shoot them and town would lose the PR. but still, just thought i'd mention it. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On May 17 2013 02:36 Promethelax wrote: Vivax was a night one shot in lxi. Does there have to be another explanation beyond: pretty good when he tries. interesting. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Do you disagree with my analysis that scum probably shot me last night? You still think oats is scummiest? If not who and why? WoS/kush: you are both still here, I'd like to hear from you on my reads list and your opinions on them since I believe you are both town I'd rather like to have some conversations with you about my null list. I want to find the last scum and after that I'll go looking for sk. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
If I'm right about Sloosh/Oats/VE SnB is the only one of your guys to post a case on scum and ksuh did say that sloosh was scum very successfully. Grush has been so useless I forgot he was playing until I went back to the player list to see who i was missing. My towniest reads are some useless fucks. yes, I am just bitching. deal with it. Come back and talk to me. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On May 21 2013 02:31 Promethelax wrote: hi guys, I'm back. This is how today goes: we lynch either Oats or Sloosh. Both of whom are scum. My only point on a town Oats was my early belief that scum had two night hits and his suggestion of a vig for the second hit. Since based on how the NKs worked out (as Sloosh correctly pointed out) there is probably a serial killer and scum only have one NK which means that Oats' townslip was actually a scumslip. Why is sloosh scum? Well its because he is really easy to read as scum. If you need help because you are bad though look at his play this day: he is SK hunting not scum hunting. An sk lynch is the same as a town lynch for scum, probably even better since the SK needs to be shooting Scum right now as evidenced by the BH shot last night. Having the SK alive assuming that it is indeed an SK (KISS suggests it is) is way more beneficial to town than it is to scum. We get to lynch and Scum need to nk the SK since he is the only non-scum kp in the game (besides the flipped vivax). SnB: no, there is no reason for me to think you are scum, but I need to call Kush scum to be able to read him and that was my chance to do so. I said I liked the prp/kush lynch dichotomy earlier but I like it a lot less now. Kush seems really townie in these last few pages his appeals to me to claim serial killer and ally myself with town are a thing he would not suggest as scum. In case you guys decide to lynch me I'm posting a full reads list with reasons so that you can maaaaybe make this a win for us. Oatsmaster has played anti-twon the whole game, his activity is pathetic and his interest is minimal. Plus scumslip about n0 nk SloOsh lurky scum play, focused attack on me trying to pass off sk-hunting as pro town while avoiding scum hunting. Chainsaw defense of bh. VE less sure than I am on the above but his OO stuff early wasn't right and my meta case from Chrono still holds. VE hasn't added anything to the game that he should as a townie. This is either VE's scumgame or the single worst town game I have ever seen from him. Shiro he was such an idiot early on that I had him as town, Rayn had a similar read. If we assume Rayn was the scum shot though that might have been to cover Shiro from someone who knew him. I wouldn't lynch him yet but I'm damn sure that I don't want him in lylo if it is at all avoidable. OO I do like his d2 play. BH's retard push on him for martyring also suggests that he is town. Of the three guys in this null column he is the one I think would have the skill to fool me as scum though. For the moment not really worth calling scum but he'll need to be looked at again as the game goes on. prp My heuristic with prp early game tells me he is town, his play hasn't done anything for me since that and he certainly could be scum. I find it somewhat unlikely though. Me[/me] WoS seriously the towniest mother fucker in the world. Kush his play today, he is actually interested in killing scum and winning game for town. Asking sk to claim is a very townie thing for kush to do. Grush I believe in STARSENSES For the purposes of the above list I treated this game as anti-scum/scum since the SK is on our side for now. I'm not to worried about him as town is so far behind right now (5-4-1) that he is shooting scum for a while and because of that scum HAVE to shoot him or push through a lynch on him. I say we lynch scum today and make scum waste their kp on sk so we can win this game. ##Vote: Oatsmaster you are all welcome to sheep me now. If scum seriously think I am the sk it probably means they shot me last night and I was protected from their nk, that would explain the retard push on me today. I'll probably get hit next night since they are so sure I'm sk so after I flip remember this post and come back and read it. I'd like you all to pull out the win for us kthx. for some reason this post feels like it has a lot of "i want to live" mixed in with the "scum reads". probably because finally someone is listening to all my stuff about oatsmaster from before, im so used to being ignored that now that someone influential is agreeing with me. but there are some real problems with the reads and also the way they are presented: - No mention of the entire Hiro wagon, which VE started, or the BH wagon, which VE also started, when he calls VE scum. Feels like recycling arguments. - oats stuff is also weird. he's had oats as a suspicion in his filter for a while, it's true, but the last mention of oats was "someone remind me to filter him when I get home, he seems different to how I'm used to him playing town and I need to see if ti matches his scum play. Son of a bitch won't even sheep me. " What happened to make that "playing anti-town all game"? Of course, I agree that oats has been playing anti town all game, but ... the way prome agreed with me is weird. - on me - prome's been throwing my name around as scum for a couple of days now, but it turns out that it was just because he was trying to goad kush? - more importantly, suddenly my "tunnel on oats", which even I recognize as a viability in my townplay/ in my attempts to demonstrate my alignment, becomes a reason he thinks i'm town? That doesn't sit right to me. It feels kind of like he just wanted to have something to say about everyone, and that he wanted to ditch as many of his previous scumreads as possible (me, OO, kush) to focus on establishing some alternative lynch to himself without too obviously flip-flopping on something important. So what I think happened - prome kind of slipped up with this post when the pressure got hot on him. The reads aren't consistent with his earlier positions; and while inconsistency can be townie, it's only townie when it happens for a good reason rather than just to have something to say about everyone when you're under pressure. If I was in promethelax's position as town, I would be 100% focused on "guys i'm town" and explaining how my play actually has been caring about lynches and my focusing on the nks was because they are an important tool in my scumhunting process and not because I was involved in them. What I'm [b]definitely not doing is this post. it's packed a sort-of-defense (but not really) against sloosh's case, a last will, and an argument for why we shouldn't be lynching the serial killer, all into one post. The last will part is suspicious because it's not like prome is going to die super fast; I'm not sure but I think now that kushmasta unvoted him he's at L-4? One other thing - the reason I posted that quote with "interesting" is because I don't really see any motivation for someone to try to reason out a counter-explanation for the vivax kill being a blue snipe. The one thing I do see is the SK having shot him, then seeing him flip vig and going "fuck I wanted the town vig alive because more kp is better for me and town is not doing so hot". Explaining that it wasn't a blue snipe as a way of (subconsciously probably) avoiding anticipated criticism. So the next question is, what do we do with it? First, it's not a sure bet that he's sk instead of scum. sloosh's case points fit better with him being sk but nothing really rules out him being scum. However, say that he is the third party serial killer. What does the town do about that? I'm actually not sure. On the one hand, if we kill him and he flips sk then we know that most likely one townie dies tonight. However, even if we manage to find and lynch scum, we probably won't reduce the number of anti-town KP (sloosh's nk analysis is pretty convincing to me). So here's the thing - it's obviously a much, much better thing for us to kill the third party serial killer than to lynch a townie, and if we try and find an alternative lynch and leave sloosh alive, then we run the risk of lynching a townie. Is it enough better for us to lynch scum than the sk that it merits taking that risk? Actually, is it better at all to lynch scum than the sk? If prome decides to shoot a townie and scum shoots another townie, that puts us at 4-3-1, where I don't think we can win. We can't lynch sk or we lose to scum at 3-3, and if we keep successfully lynching scum it goes 4-2-1 -> NKs -> 2-2-1 -> lynch -> 2-1-1 -> NKs -> 1-0-1 (prome wins) or 0-1-1 (scum wins). And that might be optimal play for an outed sk, he wins as long as he keeps finding scum. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
On May 21 2013 03:18 Promethelax wrote: Help me out here SnB, what is interesting about that? Do you disagree with my analysis that scum probably shot me last night? You still think oats is scummiest? If not who and why? WoS/kush: you are both still here, I'd like to hear from you on my reads list and your opinions on them since I believe you are both town I'd rather like to have some conversations with you about my null list. I want to find the last scum and after that I'll go looking for sk. I think oats is scum, yes. My cases on him relating to the vote steal thing still holds. I think shirokami might be scum. People have given him town reads for reasons that pretty much escape me. I think prplhz might be scum. BH's case on him was just that bad. I think VE is not scum, that BH push would've been insane for scum to do, especially because if VE had kept his vote on hiropro, hiro would've been insta lynched when the safety period ran out (unless i'm misremembering). I don't know about kush, sloosh, and OO. I think OO is scum if Oats isn't, but I'm not sure about them being scum together. I think wos is not scum. Idk, it seems like he's been playing the kind of game you should as a townie who started off under a lot of pressure. I don't have a very good reason for this read however. right now i'm focused on you though. well on you and on my job since i'm at work but w/e on that | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
As far as SK and whatnot is it not possible for it to have been a vig? Just curious. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
My reads have been all over this game, its true, and that is my own fault. I haven't had the time to put into this game and I haven't been able to get my thoughts as straight as I wanted to. Yes, calling you (SnB) scum was goading kush. Go read hydra: nuke I did a similar thing with goading Kush (though it was simply in calling him scum) since he is the busmaster the only way to call him scum is to call his scumspects scum too. You are right about the VE push on BH though, fuck. Though scum was super ahead at that point, they knew all three mod kills were town, they knew that they had all their members left alive. I think they'd go for a bit of distancing in case one of them ended up dead (which happened) and who was going to push bh over the edge? me? I'm never here on weekends. You? You are all up in Oats' grill. If VE and Sloosh are both scum there is no townie outside of me and you on a good day who could actually get the sheep in line for a bh lynch. Focus on me all you want. I haven't played a brilliant game but I think its pretty clear that its my town game. As to your arguments about keeping sk alive vs lynching him: yes we should lynch sk over town but we need to lynch scum over sk. Our position is pretty crap if we lynch sk 5-4 after scum NK assuming no hero protect. Four lylos in a row seems pretty impossible. I still think keeping him alive is better than lynching him. We can lynch sloosh or Oats for confirmed scum lynch. VE is likely scum as well but we'll have a few days to work it out. I said this already but I'll say it again. Scum think I am the SK. Scum will shoot me tonight. Don't do their work for them. If we lynch scum they HAVE to shoot me if they think I'm the SK. I'll be dead and it'll be fine, the sk will still be shooting sccum and we'll lynch scum instead of me and for your peace of mind I'll still be dead and flippy flipped. oats is scum. I know him quite well. we talk a lot. As I said earlier I can't read him on meta anymore (RED team's prize proved this beyond a doubt) but I think his play here is super scummy as I said early on the only thing puttin ghim in my town column was his 'townslip' since it seems pretty clear that there is an sk and scum has only one kp that was instead a scumslip. His town play is characterized by insistent questioning, attempts to buddy, sheeping and playfulness. This game doesn't have the playfulness I'd expect from a town Oats, his interest in this game has dipped well below town levels, his activity is slipping which it doesn't do until endgame in his town games. I like his lynch, I think he is scum. I would also be willing to lynch sloosh who has NOT scum hunted this entire game. No one else is a candidate for me today. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On May 21 2013 03:02 WaveofShadow wrote: Prom your list seems off to me. First of all, you're sure of Oats despite what I said about the voting patterns? It may be one of the only things he has going for him but it's pretty strong imo. I also don't see how you can call his interest minimal. Second, you're sure about Kush? Simply the fact that I want to lynch him less this game now that he's doing shit makes me almost want to lynch him MORE, in that it's not very kush-like. lol I missed this, sorry WoS. I'm pretty damn sure about Kush yes. If he is scum wait for a few more flips, if he is right about a lot kill him. As to Oats I do not think the voting patterns show a townie Oats, there is something going on with the votesteal but I still think it likely that Oats is scum. Sure the vote was stolen and put on a townie but why steal Oats' vote? Why wasn't Oats curious about his vote being stolen? Why wasn't OO lynched by scum? A lot of questions. A lot less questions if Oats is scum. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
Again I will discuss your big posts when I get a chace but I can't type paragraphs atm | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
I look forward to your ability to engage in big paragraphs. But they aren't necessary. Your thoughts are all I need. | ||
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strongandbig
United States4858 Posts
I also have thought more about the win/loss scenarios, and I really don't think we can afford to leave the SK alive. He could just decide to take his chances vs scum, and town cannot win in that situation. (see the bolded part at the end of that last post). As such, ##vote: promethelax | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Help me find the last scum before you kill me so that we can pull off this win (assuming sk is nice enough to kill scum for us tonight). if you are going to lynch me all I ask is that you work with me to find scum. I don't see why you are so reluctant to do so. | ||
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
I'd like you all in here so we can find scum. I'm rereading filters. If any of you quickhammer me I'll find and murder you irl. If you still want to lynch me at deadline go for it. But help me use this day productively to find scum. I'm out for a while. When I come back I'm going to work through VE to confirm my read (hopefully) and SnB to put him solidly in one camp or the other. My next priority will be OO. Feel free to go read those players and make your own conclusions, you should keep your thoughts to yourself until I come back. See if I see in them what you see when I post my reads on them. See if I am sharing your mindset, that is your best bet on seeing if you think I am town or scum or sk or what. I seriously don't understand SnB's suggestion that I am sk and should be lynched today. That suggests he wants a 5-4 come day time which is just bad. SK has to be shooting for scum tonight. SnB suggests that SK might want to just shoot town and handle scum. If that is true we go into d3 either at 3-4-1 or 4-3-1 (depending on where the lynch lands). Neither of those are advantageous to SK as far as I can tell since in the first scum could all vote for whoever they want and town could not contest it. In the second SK would be in a better position if it was 5-2-1 since he can be assured of scum shooting townies (or shooting him). I've been trying to work this out since a lot of my scum reads are precluded on the idea that lynching SK is anti-town today. I'm pretty sure lynching SK is anti-town though and that we need to lynch scum today. | ||
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