EPTslOosh - 0
strongandbig - 0
shirokami - 0
grush57 - 2 "someone vig this kid"
Promethelax - 4
VisceraEyes - 6
Oatsmaster- 10
prplhz - >10
kushm4sta - >10
ObviousOne - >10
WaveofShadow - >10
Carnival Cruise Mafia - Page 88
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
slOosh - 0 strongandbig - 0 shirokami - 0 grush57 - 2 "someone vig this kid" Promethelax - 4 VisceraEyes - 6 Oatsmaster- 10 prplhz - >10 kushm4sta - >10 ObviousOne - >10 WaveofShadow - >10 | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
This is an Ace game. He knows the game of mafia very well. He designs great setups that reward good play and punishes bad play. The games are balanced, and mechanics can be used, nay, should be used as a component of analysis. Let's consider last night - BH flipped scum. Good. But the greater observation to be made is that there was only one flip. Observe: On May 13 2013 13:44 Ace wrote: Night 0 kitaman27, the Ship Warden (Jailkeeper) has been thrown overboard! DarthPunk, The Wall Street Investor (Vanilla Town/Self Aware Miller) has been found hung from the gallows! On May 16 2013 14:05 Ace wrote: Night 1 VayneAuthority, The Virgin Cruiser (Vanilla Town) has been killed raynpelikoneet, Internet Contest Winner (Vanilla Town) has been killed Vivax, The Crew Barber (Vigilante) has been killed On May 19 2013 13:07 Ace wrote: Night 2 BlazingHand, Thomas Jefferson (Framer) has been killed What's going on here? We have 2 kills night 0, 3 kills night 1, 1 scum kill night 2. Think critically. Last night scum KP had no effect, and scum was shot. So we have missing KP, and unaccounted for KP. What traditionally explains missing KP? Medics / jailors / veterans and ....? What traditionally explains non-scum KP? Vigs and ...? That's right. 3rd party SK. "Oh slOosh what are you stupid? Why would you come to that conclusion?" Because look at it from a balance perspective. We had on our side a Jailkeeper, a 1 shot copy cat and an infinite shot vigi. Scum had 1 gimped framer, which suggests the presence of a cop-type role, and some sort of gimped vote-steal power, which wasn't even used the second day. For us to have another vig and a protective role doesn't make any sense. Furthermore, for 2KP to be removed, it means we have multiple protective roles, that failed all prior nights but simultaneously managed to block separate KP last night. Ace is all about KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid. There is a 3rd party SK. This is the only scenario that fits and is able to explain all three nights. Ok - all this is nice, but for it to reach fruition requires more. That's where mechanics analysis meshes with behavioral analysis. Now that we know an SK exists, we find who matches the profile of the SK: And it's pretty easy since I sniffed him out as scum already: Promethelax is 3rd party Serial Killer You can check my latest post for reasons why. His attitude and demeanor show that he doesn't truly care about town's interests. He comes in pointing fingers and blaming everyone even though he did nothing at all to help us hit the right lynch. The only reason people are wary of lynching him is that he initially voted BH (without any reasoning and justification), and BH happened to flip scum. There may not be that strong scum motivation for doing that, but there is strong 3rd party motivation. If you are right you look good, and if you are wrong you don't care. On May 19 2013 09:18 slOosh wrote: Hey Prom, sick pre-flip association reads. You go AWOL last night, blame BH that he calls you out on it but then proceed to blame me for being late for day 1 lynch? You call me desperate scum that went for a gambit on mylo, even though as scum I would know the KP formula and be able to do basic math? You say I chainsaw defend BH even though the person pushing BH was VE and I didn't attack him, nor you in any way whatsoever? Q: If HiroPro was the wrong lynch, why didn't Prome say anything about it? A: He is scum that parked his vote somewhere else to avoid any responsibility, and now is trying to pin the blame of the flip based on the result, not on the analysis / justifications / reasoning. GG. Your desire for a perfect game was your downfall. ObviousOne also brings up a good point on meta: he isn't acting like townProm. It looks similar but there are some disparities. What fits the bill? 3rd party - play as if for town (why not?) but your true motives and intentions peek out. On May 19 2013 18:43 ObviousOne wrote: Yeah, okay, let's look at it this way: Prom has 2 scum games listed in his profile, one was a newbie game from ages ago and then there was LX which was random as fuck obviscummy. Take a gander at British Empire Mini II. He was town there, his early game features tons of short posts, very few large posts/mega-cases. Lots of willingness to discuss things. I don't get that bossy tone that we're seeing here in his posts from British; he's very handily demonstrating inquisitive/paranoid tendencies in British. Here he's assuming a commanding presence, but the counter-point to that is that his expected activity would not really support that playstyle for this particular game. I need to read his filter through-and-through here but that's one major difference I'm noticing that really can't be explained unless he's intentionally trying to be tough guy here and what's the town motivation for sounding like a bully? Here his posts feel less like a discussion and more like a dictatorship. He's driving but he's AFK. GHOST-RIDE THE WHIP! Does that jive with what you're feeling? Can't really do a meta analysis of his mafia play when he has two games ever and they are so far apart / different in nature. I can just point out what I see as not really feeling like his town play and guess as to whether or not that makes him scummy. Last thought for the moment, need to look at how he voted for BH, like that entire conversation in context of the thread, that's where the Swedish Fish are likely hiding. Lastly, consider that Prom has a 3rd party mentality, look into his filter and observe how he talks about NKs. On May 13 2013 16:35 Promethelax wrote: goddamn it. OO is scum. None of us had a reasonable explanation for a nk on DP. I've been trying to think about who has a high opinion of DP's town play in this game and the ones I know of are me and scum team from The Game (bh/kita/bugs/geript) so I was looking at bh but rather liked his posting so far. Somehow OO has an explanation for the nk that makes perfect sense if he were scum. ##Vote: ObviousOne If you recall, Prom tried pushing a poor case on OO and used this as one of the supporting reasons. It's complete nonsense. It actually makes 0 sense as people later point out, that mafia wouldn't shoot 3P. Yet Prom doesn't actually think this one through - instead he jumps on and screams scumslip. I question him later about this poor point: On May 14 2013 01:28 Promethelax wrote: because dumb. It would be bad scum play obviously but I have seen scum players do it in the past when trying to look as if they are contributing/paying attention. It is one of the things scum have the easiest time being involved in. Ridiculous. "Hey Prom, why wouldn't scum use their 2KP last night to shoot BH?" "because dumb" See how ridiculous the reasoning is? He calls out OO for a scumslip, and justifies his read when called out by me by saying that scum is dumb to resolve the logical fallacy. This is backwards thinking. Pick a stance on someone, then try to find evidence to push said stance. Furthermore, there is a good chance that Prom freaked out when OO pointed out the existance of 3rd party and wanted all such discussion snuffed out. On May 17 2013 00:36 Promethelax wrote: Oh lol, of course Rayn and Viv get hit.I wanted to talk to them about things. Bastards. 3 NK though. I will look back at Vivax re: shooting. If he did shoot oats is townier if he didn't I'm confused, unless chooser was hit n1? He claimed RB and Kita was JK. Or regular medic saves/vets. Why does he even say this? He waffles around feigning confusion about what happened last night even though it was pretty clear what happened night 1. We were all operating under the assumption that scum had 2KP, they shot rayn and vivax and vivax shot vayne. We were keeping it simple. Prom can't, because he knows that one of the shots was his. He feels the need to mention NK even though it is straightforward. He doesn't come to a conclusion, but wants to let everyone know that he is confused - implicitly suggesting that he doesn't know anything about KP. Well, he went overboard - he clearly knew everything, and underestimated what town knew. Look at his gameplay this current cycle. Look how many people he calls scum. Look how he sets others up for future lynches if the current ones don't work out. He isn't figuring stuff out, he is trying to get everyone lynched. tl;dr (but if you skipped down to this without properly reading this, you probably don't care about town, i.e. you are Prom or scum) Mechanics analysis shows we have a 3rd party on board. Behavioral analysis shows that Prom is that 3rd party. Logical deduction dictates that we should kill him. K-I-S-S. ##Vote Promethelax | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
2 NKs night 0. 3 NKs night 1. 1 NKs night 2. Please elaborate. Also about the caring about nk's, he called me confirmed town off of my thinking that the DP shot was a vig shot. Which was weird. ##Unvote ##Vote Prome | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Scum KP is probably fixed at 1. There are 4 scum left so even if we kill one we won't drop their KP. Killing Prom today ensures that we drop anti-town KP by 1. It doesn't even matter if we lynch scum today, it isn't as good as lynching Prom. | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On May 20 2013 14:43 slOosh wrote: p.s. Scum KP is probably fixed at 1. There are 4 scum left so even if we kill one we won't drop their KP. Killing Prom today ensures that we drop anti-town KP by 1. It doesn't even matter if we lynch scum today, it isn't as good as lynching Prom. so this is the Ace rule of always lynching 3P no matter what? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 20 2013 14:42 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont understand how you got to a conclusion of 3P from 2 NKs night 0. 3 NKs night 1. 1 NKs night 2. Please elaborate. Also about the caring about nk's, he called me confirmed town off of my thinking that the DP shot was a vig shot. Which was weird. ##Unvote ##Vote Prome It is unlikely that Vivax was so compulsive to shoot night 0. So he shot night 1. Looking at his filter, it is most likely that he shot vayne. He died that night so he did not contribute to night 2 KP. Night 2 had a BH scumflip. That means that there is non-scum KP still. This can either be from a town vig or 3P. Night 2 only had a BH flip. That means that scum KP was stopped. This can either be a protective roll or 3P. So you have 2 scenarios: There is no 3p: 2 scum NK night 0 -> normal 2 scum NK, 1 town NK night 1 -> normal 0 scum NK, 1 town NK night 2 -> we have 2 protective roles that managed to block separate KP and we have another vig that saved their shot until now and then shot scum. There is 3p: 1 scum NK, 1 3p NK -> normal 1 scum NK, 1 3p NK, 1 town NK -> normal 0 scum NK, 1 3p NK -> normal. KISS. It is much much much much more likely that there is a 3p then we have 2 protective roles that both succeeded, independently and completely, and a vig saved their shot until now. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 20 2013 14:47 Oatsmaster wrote: so this is the Ace rule of always lynching 3P no matter what? Not sure what Ace rule you are referring to, but I'm almost positive he would agree with me. We lynch scum -> good. But scum still have 1KP (since OP suggests scum KP cannot be lowered). We lynch Prom -> great. Anti-town KP drops by 1. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Only reason we shouldn't lynch Prom is if you think someone else has a higher chance of being 3p, and can prove it. | ||
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shirokami
Finland107 Posts
##vote prome | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
I don't disagree with you. There is probably a 3rd party. And yes I think there is a good chance it's prome. It may also be prpl but I think he is more likely scum. BUT here is the real question.. why are you making a huge case on SK and voting SK instead of giving any effort towards finding scum? | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On May 20 2013 14:42 Oatsmaster wrote: I dont understand how you got to a conclusion of 3P from 2 NKs night 0. 3 NKs night 1. 1 NKs night 2. Please elaborate. Also about the caring about nk's, he called me confirmed town off of my thinking that the DP shot was a vig shot. Which was weird. ##Unvote ##Vote Prome also oats what the actual fuck.. you say you don' t understand, but then you go ahead and vote him anyway. Why this over prpl lynch? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 20 2013 15:01 kushm4sta wrote: @sloosh I don't disagree with you. There is probably a 3rd party. And yes I think there is a good chance it's prome. It may also be prpl but I think he is more likely scum. BUT here is the real question.. why are you making a huge case on SK and voting SK instead of giving any effort towards finding scum? On May 20 2013 14:50 slOosh wrote: Not sure what Ace rule you are referring to, but I'm almost positive he would agree with me. We lynch scum -> good. But scum still have 1KP (since OP suggests scum KP cannot be lowered). We lynch Prom -> great. Anti-town KP drops by 1. If I had more time I would discuss the wagons etc, but I don't. I'm taking out what I perceive as the greatest threat. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
So you have no scumreads? if so who are they. not asking for cases | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On May 20 2013 15:04 kushm4sta wrote: also oats what the actual fuck.. you say you don' t understand, but then you go ahead and vote him anyway. Why this over prpl lynch? Kush, I dont think you understand that I can UNVOTE. Because I like to speculate, and Prome was absolutely a good shot n2 and bulletproof sk means he didnt die. Im not convinced about prp, BH was pushing a lynch on him yesterday off that weird policy. Could be a bus. But whats the point? BTW even if prome flips 3P, it doesnt mean that sloosh isnt scum. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On May 20 2013 15:23 Oatsmaster wrote: BTW even if prome flips 3P, it doesnt mean that sloosh isnt scum. no shit | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
yay. Now vote for prome! | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On May 20 2013 15:16 kushm4sta wrote: @sloosh So you have no scumreads? if so who are they. not asking for cases From a general reread I'm leaning prplhz and after that Oats. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
On May 20 2013 15:29 slOosh wrote: From a general reread I'm leaning prplhz and after that Oats. OH GOD WHY WOULD YOU DO THIS????????????? oh right its cause you are scum. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
I think killing 3p is not ideal. The most important thing to consider is the ratio of town to scum. | ||
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