EPTWhen you factor in all of the evidence against ryu and kitaman i just don't see why you would lynch CC. The less said abouyt the glurio lynch the better.
Mafia Podcast! - Page 35
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
When you factor in all of the evidence against ryu and kitaman i just don't see why you would lynch CC. The less said abouyt the glurio lynch the better. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10859 Posts
On April 01 2013 11:20 geript wrote: DP, I think you need to look at it from a non-vet perspective. Of the people in the game, there were 4 scum, 1 3P and 9 town iirc. Or close to that, of town the people who should've seen it was DYH, DP, TestSubject and TPS. WoS, Zarepath, Glurio, Kenpachi, and 1-2 others. Those newbies it's not going to be obvious as the point about 3P being anti-town is very true. Add the uncertainty of who is scum and claimed closed game 3P which is likely at least partially lying and it makes lynching scum much less likely. The "sure thing" 3P lynch becomes far, far more attractive. Add in the fact that 'confirmed townie' WoS though that Kita was town makes it much harder to push a 3P lynch. Add in the fact that scum was both making sense and disrupting you and 3P is the best alternative in the same way that VE pushed Wiggles and Ace over BH as he went for the best alternative time permitting. Sometimes you're forced to settle for second best due to the alternative being worse. Bringing it to a head between myself and kita would have netted you a scum for sure. Scum get caught when they get into bad situations/ the spotlight like a fight to the lynch with a townie. Saying that there were no obvious scum or too difficult to catch scum is not a good attitude and will make it more likely that you in fact NEVER lynch scum. There was enough information in the thread that if it had come down to kita and myself anyone could have analysed that information and made the correct decision. The 3rd party had no KP, was not able to recruit townies against their will, and scum was pushing his lynch. That is the information available at the time. There was no pressing need to lynch third party. There WAS a pressing need to reduce KP. The third party lynch was available the next day. Saying that lynching the third party the day after would have just reduced the number of suspects to lycnh into is the same reasoning behind no lynching. You still have to lynch scum the following day. Except two of the townies most able to make that happen are going to be dead. Scum control the shots. the situation the next day IS going to be worse for town. Third parties can also be anti scum so keeping the third party alive could have forced disadvantageous shots from mafia. I really wish I had been on the podcast to explain this to whoever was saying lynching third party in that situation was best for town at that point when it clearly wasn't. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10859 Posts
On April 01 2013 11:30 layabout wrote: On day4 the pool of player that you could be pretty much certain weren't mafia was really big. Test WoS TPS CC and to a lesser extent DP and zarepath, so you are looking for mafia in the other 8 players. Also on day4 all three wagons were on non-town. When you factor in all of the evidence against ryu and kitaman i just don't see why you would lynch CC. The less said abouyt the glurio lynch the better. This. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10859 Posts
On April 01 2013 11:27 RyuSuzaku wrote: it's not that there was "no idea" who was scum, but rather that you are never 100% sure who is. This is not true. I was 100% sure that you and kita were scum. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
@layabout: I don't think it was that obvious who was in the "Town" pool. Considering the massive amount of finger pointing, fast wagons, and 3 straight mislynches for them to just collectively turn around on Day 4 and go "ok, here are the 4 sure fire Townies" is asking a lot  | ||
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RyuSuzaku
Japan139 Posts
On April 01 2013 11:36 DarthPunk wrote: This is not true. I was 100% sure that you and kita were scum. again, from your perspective. stop looking at it from a results-oriented perspective and you'll see what I mean. Or, just look at the other townies. layabout suffers from that same confirmation bias and it's probably why he thought 90% of the town was offlimits for a lynch and also why he was so scared to post. You can't ever treat a game of incomplete information like one with discrete states because they virtually never exist. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
WaveofShadow Geript One of Kitaman27 and DarthPunk TestSubject983 ThePeaShooter Null (6) Glurio Zarepath Kenpachi DoYouHas RyuSuzaku Layabout Confirmed not town (2) One of: DarthPunk and Kitaman27 Cosmicomics Assuming 5 starting Scum, the expected distribution was 6-4-3. If all 3P followers die when the leader did, the town is endgamed. If they survive, then they go into MYLO at 7-4. If they mislynch, then the distribution would be 3-4-4 +/- town/cult how many cultists are hit and you're conceding the game to Mafia or 3P regardless of cultists surviving or not. Without a 100% scum target, the best option to play for is being in MYLO out. It's not a good position at all, but given the circumstances it's the best choice. If it were an open or semi-open setup, things are completely different. However not knowing how things work exactly, the best choice was 3P and hoping for the best as mislynch is 100% assumed concession. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10859 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
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RyuSuzaku
Japan139 Posts
That's it. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On April 01 2013 11:43 RyuSuzaku wrote: again, from your perspective. stop looking at it from a results-oriented perspective and you'll see what I mean. Or, just look at the other townies. layabout suffers from that same confirmation bias and it's probably why he thought 90% of the town was offlimits for a lynch and also why he was so scared to post. You can't ever treat a game of incomplete information like one with discrete states because they virtually never exist. No amount of confirmation bias can change how silly it was that neither you or kita was lynched day 5. I was scared to post because i had committed to pushing kita and doing that threatened the mislynch we were gifted. Ace i am curious as to who you think doesn't belong in the "non-mafia" pool. WoS dt claim with plays that matches claim TPS- green check Testsubject claimed shot on scum CC claimed 3p with plenty of evidence to back up the claim in thread | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I was surprised to learn that our team had two godfathers. Was this a mistake or is bugs so terrible that he never informed his whole scum team of his role? I think the biggest issue with the "survivors want to work with town" argument is that depending on if the recruits are town, it could be 5-5 even after a mafia lynch and no survivor in their right mind is going to work with town when they could control the lynch by working with mafia. A couple people mentioned that they had a problem with the role claim, but that was the part we were most scared about, since it was much easier to push a lynch on him when people saw him as mafia, rather than third party. Had it come earlier in the cycle and potentially cleaned up a bit, he probably could have survived the cycle. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18459 Posts
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iGrok
United States5142 Posts
On April 02 2013 03:10 Acrofales wrote: If you can get a podcast with people like Greymist, Kita, igrok, Caller or so, I would love a podcast on balancing themed games! That sounds fun! | ||
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On April 01 2013 22:19 kitaman27 wrote: Enjoyed the podcast! I was surprised to learn that our team had two godfathers. Was this a mistake or is bugs so terrible that he never informed his whole scum team of his role? I think the biggest issue with the "survivors want to work with town" argument is that depending on if the recruits are town, it could be 5-5 even after a mafia lynch and no survivor in their right mind is going to work with town when they could control the lynch by working with mafia. A couple people mentioned that they had a problem with the role claim, but that was the part we were most scared about, since it was much easier to push a lynch on him when people saw him as mafia, rather than third party. Had it come earlier in the cycle and potentially cleaned up a bit, he probably could have survived the cycle. No, I was pretty confused when they said that too. I assumed it had to be geript's role since I was definitely vanilla. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18459 Posts
On April 02 2013 04:00 Caller wrote: im sorry i heard the words balance and themed games in the same sentence Yeah, I figured I'd throw your name in there so you can argue that it is impossible >:D | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9389 Posts
In short: loved it. It was great that peoples opinions differed; and that others were not afraid to interject to either add new thoughts OR steer the convo back on-topic. My favourite podcast by far so far; so much so, the length was not an issue to me. As an aside: I found it difficult to distinguish some of the people from each other. I think either WBG/iGrok or Yam/WBG. ========= P.S. when you guys was talking about the spamming and brought me up, I was laughing too  <3Next game(s) I play.. I am going to work on improved post consolidation. I personally struggle with balancing: moving/stirring the thread & scum hunting. WoS said it pretty well actually: I like to poke for reactions to figure out who i want to sink hooks on. I also agree in full with what WoS said about reading spammy filters. I dont have a problem with it, most of the content are 1-liners that are quick to read through. People over exaggerate on the # of pages; and forget to comment critically about the content. Frankly, whats scary to me is a filter full of only "cases". Yes cases can indicate the alignment of the maker; but they take a butt-load of effort to decipher - if you are indeed critically reading. I think ppl also look at a 20+ page filter and get scared, because they are trying to read the posts looking to unearth the ONE POST that gives the scum tell. As opposed to reading the filter and obtaining a flow for that persons thread sentiment. I believe the above similar to the issue with meta-cases raised in the pod cast. | ||
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