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Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 28

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
December 20 2012 10:36 GMT
#541
A real case: Spaghetticus

Spaghetticus is posting reasonably and being nice. In fact, he's being too nice. He hasn't accused anyone at all of anything. He hasn't expressed any suspicions of any other player, or posted any analysis. In fact, he hasn't done anything useful for the town at all, while still looking active, and that is textbook scum.

  • Spaghetticus has been posting rationally... on defending other players, instructing other players, policy, and Mafia theory. THIS IS NOT A TOWNTELL.
  • Spaghetticus has not made any cases on scum.
  • Spaghetticus keeps telling everyone else to make cases on scum.
  • Spaghetticus has not searched for scum. He has applied no pressure and asked almost no questions.


A post-by-post analysis:

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 19 2012 11:00 Spaghetticus wrote:
K first post :D

LAL: I think LAL the policy is stupid, but think LAL the conversation about whether to implement the LAL policy is great. My lynch decision making is flexible, but lurking constitutes a substantial markup on the probability of me lynching you. If you lurk, I will be on your case, and if your answers are not adequate I will put you on my to-lynch list.

For lying I am the same. In the one game I've played I lied to hide that I was a cop. If you lie this draws massive attention, but it's important to look for motive, intention, and possible outcomes as well.

- Cakepie
- Kickstart
- Fatchunk
- Aquanim

Have not posted yet (correct me if I'm wrong). Please disregard this list when considering my contribution, I post lists because they are useful and I have them anyway, not to appear useful. Keep your list hate to yourself

@Threesr
You are about to come under massive amounts of pressure if you don't conform/comply with LAL attitudes (not a threat, just a prediction). Your position at the moment is too empathetic for a game where the most important tool is the noose. There will be times when people will lurk because they don't know what to do, and at these times, it's more likely that they don't know what to do because they are a more complex role (scum). If you are looking for certainty then you are almost certainly playing the wrong game XD

To nubs in general: Please make an effort to keep your posts clear and informative, as a lot of us will be playing catchup. Do not be under the impression that (wordcount) = (town behaviour), others and myself will go through your filter and swathes of cruddy posts actually draw attention. Please keep the bickering impersonal, and have a great game :D

My previous game (cop) (win)


I'll consider lists scummy all I please, you can't get out of posting useless fluff just by saying that's how you roll.

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 19 2012 11:27 Spaghetticus wrote:
Mocsta I honestly think it's too early to be getting town reads. This is in response to your acknowledgement of Chroma not your null on me. The positives of such a move (that I can think of) are that if you are good at reading people your reads yours will hold more weight than those of a bad reader. The negatives are that if you are a below average reader then you are throwing town off, if you are scum you could be solidifying a position as head town, and read confidence improves with time. I don't see it as a solid move this early. I like the drive you are giving town though.

In my last game the scum only had two players and there were no ways to interfere with the reliability of the cop power. I was 100% certain that any inspection I made was correct, which made for a bit of a lopsided game. The game ended quickly as one of the scum was trying to opt out of the game and was playing fast and loose. I can't really give great insights into cop play as I was actually correct in my initial read on both scum, which is something due more to luck than any skill on my part.


Lecturing other players isn't all that useful. Nobody has said anything useful at this point though.

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 19 2012 12:30 Spaghetticus wrote:
Strong post Cakepie, keep it up.

@Everyone How many games have you played?

I want to compile another list, for personal use and otherwise. Even if you have already made this information available could you please do so once more so I don't need to trawl through starter fluff again?

I am concerned about people pulling the nub card, and want to be able to assess the legitimacy of these claims easily.

A massive mistake people were making last game was to assume that people were scum if they were inexperienced, which IMO is pretty silly in a nub game.


More fluff, and inviting other players to clog the thread. An unsubtle buddy to Cakepie for good measure.

Some serious hypocrisy here:
On December 19 2012 12:51 Spaghetticus wrote:
Cheers Omni and Chroma.

Things seem to have died down, I might head to the gym.

We still have three people with no posts, if you are one of them I suggest you make a big and informative post after reading through everything that has been posted this game. Try and have questions for the players that have been posting, and develop a theory of who is town and scum. You are late to the part y but you can still be valuable and productive town.

So he wants people to "develop a theory of town and scum" without doing anything of the sort himself? This is what first set off my alarm bells.

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 19 2012 20:34 Spaghetticus wrote:
I just looked though everyone's filters and took some notes. I have a terrible memory and find it gives some context to the names I try so hard to remember. If you find it difficult to associate a person's name with their actions so far, I suggest you look through their filter in order to put a face to the name, and prevent them lurking past you.

I will now try and compile a synopsis before bed.

On December 19 2012 21:02 Spaghetticus wrote:
Lurkers:
Threesr: He seems to want to defend lurking, which is really weird. Only contribution to date is disputing LAL.

Cakepie: One very solid post. Would like to see more, though I think you have contributed more than a few other people here.

Orange: Very little substance so far.

Fatchunk: One post.

Kickstart: Two posts.

Sylencia: Seems to want to contribute, but is struggling.

Corazon: One post.

Shz: low contribution, attempts to stimulate discussion have been weak.

So we have a bit of a lurker problem. Some of you I think will have no problem increasing production, but some others seem reluctant. If all you have done is discuss LAL policy up to this point, you need to contribute more. Give us your scummy reads if you have any. I would put money on the day1 lynch being one of the names I just mentioned, please try and make sure it’s not you. At this moment in time my prediction is that either Corazon, Shz, or Threesr will get bandwagoned.

Anyone can compose a list of lurkers. Still no town motivation here.

On December 19 2012 21:19 Spaghetticus wrote:
For the record, I find Cakepies text dump(s) actually fairly good. For the most part he has stayed on track and made his positions clear. I also agree with most of what he has said. I'd still like more, but he is far from lurking or suspicious in my eyes (relative to many of the other lurkers).

Yet more noise.

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 20 2012 00:09 Spaghetticus wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2012 23:21 cakepie wrote:
Spaghetticus: solid so far, no complaints. Would like to see you start getting on one of the cases or form one of your own.


I am someone with a natural inclination to lurk. So far I'm on my 6th page of notes, and once I have more than a 30% read on anyone as scum I'll make a case. Until then I just trawl through the data and try to keep others on track. I'm reluctant to play aggressively until I have a foot to stand on.

Personally I would like people to focus their efforts away from Mocsta and Cakepie, and focus almost exclusively on the lurkers. If they do happen to be scum then at this rate they will leave a trail and we will nail them day two.

Anyone looking for brownie points should try and focus on contributing OC, that is, post a case on one of the many lurkers. I'll give you a hint: if you are one of the lurkers, you need to score brownie points by proving yourself more useful than your lurker brethren. Bandwagonning on lurkers that have already been called out does not count!

He's still asking for other people to make cases, and still contributing absolutly no analysis of his own.

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 20 2012 10:47 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Threesr
Please leave the attitude at the door. By making things personal you are bringing out people’s emotions, when what we need is reason. When OMGUS votes are cast something is going wrong for town, the fact that you are causal to the OMGUS means your activity is hindering town. Please keep things civil and impersonal, and rather than address only comments made at you, please do your best to develop cases that are not immediate to your survival. If you contribute to town, you will be valued and your chances of getting lynched go down, more so than the knee-jerk slinging of mud has got you by far.
Also, with your votes, you are flipping around so much that any case you do make seems like only a distraction until some new and shiny muckup catches your eye. If your vote is just a means of applying pressure (which my town hypothesis of you would indicate), then it’s better for you to stick to a person and pressure the shit out of them, than to switch willy-nilly, as people start to disregard your vote, knowing it will soon change.

More lecturing of other players, more complete absense of analysis.

On December 20 2012 10:55 Spaghetticus wrote:
My internet is about to get shut off for an unspecified amount of time. I'm gonna go through filters and try to have a case for when it comes back on.

Promises a case, never makes one.

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 20 2012 12:02 Spaghetticus wrote:
Internet back up, quicker than expected :D

Chromatically I strongly disagree, I think the approach of Shz is great. I disagree with his conclusions, but the approach is immensely valuable, and I will likely be voting in line with this approach.

I've said it twice and I'll say it again, this is not a game of certainty, and our first lynch is more likely to come up town. If anyone is having confidence in their reads of over 40% they are either prodigal or misguided. We should not only expect a town lynch, we should prepare for one. All this posturing is setting up for day two when the real game begins.

More noise. He's trying to pass day one off as useless.

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 20 2012 12:05 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Corazon
Any and all of your assertions that head/scum hunting is bad are wrong. It is cool that you have struck out to find your own understanding of the game, but at this point we really need some information, and the only way to get that is scumhunting. There are plenty of resources on this site that will tell you why scumhunting is protown, I shouldn’t need to convince you by way of this thread.

You have made several slips that could be construed as scum behaviour. I do discount this evidence entirely as I do not believe Freudian slips to be of much substance. While it is unfortunate for you (and town if you are town) that this has happened, as some people are easily swayed by this type of evidence, I implore you to not let it affect your utility to the town by causing you to go defence mode. Rather, pick your best read, and stick to them like a limpet. Also proof read your posts just to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

What I told Threest in regard to OMGUS is equally relevant to you if not more, as (don’t quote me on this) your OMGUS was more explicit. Your vote is not a bargaining chip, it is a tool for pressuring and lynching.

Your idea that lynching useless town is better than lynching useful town does hold some merit, but honestly it shouldn’t influence the equation that much.

I just finished reading your filter and your posts are all stuck in the past addressing Threesr, please bring some more up to date content to the table.


More lecturing of other players, more complete absense of analysis.

On December 20 2012 12:06 Spaghetticus wrote:
@OmniEulogy
Your contribution has been almost entirely limited to the Threesr/Corazon debacle. This is not an untapped vein to begin with, regardless of where your vote lies, please contribute elsewhere. You mentioned being suspicious of FC?

More lecturing of other players, more complete absense of analysis. I'm getting tired of copy and pasting this by now.

On December 20 2012 12:17 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Orangeremi
Do you still believe it is not beneficial for mafia to lurk? You shouldn’t, as you’d be wrong. As I have done before, I would point you to the resources available on this topic on this very forum. Lurking bad. Speaking of which, you still only have a one page filter. Admittedly my filter is only two pages, but your one page only has 1-2 posts of any substance.
Step up if you’re town, continue to stagnate if you’re scum.

Do I even need to repeat myself again?

On December 20 2012 12:20 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Sylencia
I have not yet read your filter yet but you need to step up now as you have very little time left before you need to vote. You are actually a mildly scummy read for me in that the only real information I have on you is that you have claimed a legitimate reason to lurk. You will need to put a lot of effort in if you want your words to stay strong in your absence.

Okay, this is still more lecturing and this is getting ridiculous.

And then a huge block of lecuring of other players for good measure, while contributing nothing himself.

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 20 2012 12:31 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Kickstart
I'm afraid I didn't make myself clear, though you were you for an update anyway XD

I asked you because you've played the most games, how are the players in the current game acting in comparison to when you've played with them before? I assume you've run into at least one in your travels?

This is at least a question. It's still not particularly constructive though.

+ Show Spoiler +
On December 20 2012 13:26 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Chrom
I have absolutely zero problem currently with the way you conduct yourself. Your approach is direct, and simple. I begin to suspect they are a little forced, as I can't imagine anyone that is this selective in the data they choose to interpret wanting to play a ridiculously complex game like mafia, but for now you serve a purpose (that sounds more cold than I mean it ).

I would normally brush your commentary aside, but I feel that while I have been very active, I have given next to nothing on my actual perspective. So that you have a standard to later judge my actions by, I will respond.

"I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum."

Assuming you are town, you should start the game with a neutral 25% suspicion of everyone (you are the 13th player). Through day one, people will pave the way with false bravado and bluster, but ultimately, day one only serves to identify the people you are playing with. I now have a feel for your styles, an have limited information about what you can and cannot do without bringing the scumhunt to your door. There is incredibly little actually being done, and evidence is inconclusive. I admit, I don't know the actual statistics, but I assume the chances of lynching scum on day one is 25% or less. I believe the inputs for this equation are actually very complex, but I'll try and simplify and communicate the little I do understand.

You posit that 'good' town can find scum d1. This is true, and that should be a focus, but this is unlikely to happen because:

1) - Good scum are approximately equally as abundant good town. For every master inspector there is an escape artist. Your argument from town competency is counteracted.
2) - The scum are manipulating our vote. Three informed votes have a lot of sway in the uninformed majority.

As I hope to have adequately expressed above, it is actually incredibly optimistic to expect a day one scum lynch. On top of this, any scum lynches could be the result of an early bus, which leaves the scum with all the cards. I expect the number of successful scum lynches that do not involve some more advanced mafia play are even less than the 20-25% mentioned earlier.
Mafia, much like starcraft, is a game with phases. I play macrozerg, I win with broodlord infestor. Trying to 6pool out a win on day one is not my style.

Some more rambling about his views on day one prospects. Still bloody useless in terms of contributing to finding scum.

+ Show Spoiler +
On December 20 2012 13:34 Spaghetticus wrote:
@Corazon

The information is there for the reading.

Please don't surrender if you are town, the voting is inconclusive. People have been pressuring with their votes all day, the only difference here is that they all decided to do it to the same person. Sheeping this hard this early is crazy and almost certainly scum manipulation. Despite your play being scummy, I would prefer someone else get the lynch just so that the sheeple will stop being so lazy and keep making cases. That a supposed majority have settled on one person this early is IMO retarded, people need to throw down the hivemind mentality.

More lecturing, containing this gem:
Despite your play being scummy, I would prefer someone else get the lynch just so that the sheeple will stop being so lazy and keep making cases?
You must be joking. Spag has still not made anything even resembling a case.

On December 20 2012 16:49 Spaghetticus wrote:
I am writing up a defense of Corazon ATM. It's long, and complex. I expect people to put in the effort to read it, as I am spending a good amount of time writing it. We still have 15 hours or so (I think) before lynching, let's make them count!

I would have preferred to write a case on someone but I think it's more important at this moment to get town back to actively scum hunting.

So Spag thinks that the best way to get town back to scumhunting is to defend someone under pressure, not make a case himself? Words fail me.

Then the defence of Corazon, I can't be bothered quoting it. Suffice it to say that it's still not scumhunting. While I agree that we shouldn't lock in votes on Corazon just yet, there's stuff to be learned from watching reactions to it. It's as good a topic for discussion as any.
Spag's whole "I'm defending Corazon but still happy to vote for him" BS is a classic scum move too - keeping his options open for new developments so he doesn't have to contradict himself later. I'm not saying that town would never do this, but it's pretty damn scummy.

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 20 2012 19:27 Spaghetticus wrote:
how long until lynching? I need to plan logistics.

@Mocsta
My read on Threesr mirror's Kickstart's, though I by no means condone Kickstart's lurking (still one page filter!?). The battle between Threesr and Conazon reminds me of my only other game. Both Kush and WeeTee were conspicuously weak players and everyone was gunning them down. I launched a defense similar to the one I just threw out, and while WeeTee got lynched (innocent), Kush (also innocent) managed to stay alive and we had scum gg after the second night. People that are new read too far into other noob's actions, it's a complex element that people in higher level games don't need to worry about as much.

While I am not saying that there is absolutely zero chance of these players being scum, I think that the information available points to them just being bad town. With Threesr, it's the fact he's been modkilled for lurking that gives me the feeling his obnoxious internet persona is not a skilfully crafted scumshield.

On top of me actually thinking neither of them scum, I also think it's best for the town if we talk about other people regardless of their level of guilt, as if either of them is scum they are almost certainly a weak one, and not likely to stay off our radar for long.

We waste time talking about points that have already been said, both players have been drilled to death. My inclination is to believe that the lurkers hold at least 1-2 mafia, as they have had no reason to step up because Threesr and Corazon have been taking all the heat. By being complacent and lazily voting for the conspicuous, we have let too many people fade into the background.

And he's STILL telling everyone else to discuss and give reads while offering none of his own. This has gone far enough.




Now, Spag has said that he prefers to build up to a case with his notes, and then drop it all at once. Fair enough, so do I. However, let's quickly check out his previous game, Newbie XXV, where he was town:
+ Show Spoiler +

On August 24 2012 12:34 Spaghetticus wrote:
This is a repost of my case against Shady Sands.
I hope I'm using the tags correctly now... As I will probably be unable to respond to any criticism immediately for the next 10.5 hours, it would be lovely if any comments directed at me could be made quite salient. I'll be tired when I get home and deciphering pages and pages of text can be difficult without cues.


@Kush
So in the few hours this game has been running I have somehow managed to both bandwagon and lurk? This seems brash considering how tentative you have seemed to want to be so far.

I have not bandwagoned. The extent of my contribution is having agreed with Scrawn's lurker policy, but also criticised it for being too conservative. I haven't had time to lurk, as afore mentioned I am a busy person who does not have time to sit on this thread all day and respond in real time to every comment. There is also very little to go on at the moment, just because I am not pretending to contribute does not mean that I am not going to actually contribute as soon as I have something to say.

Now looky here... I do have something to say!

I think Scrawn is doing a good job as town, this certainly does not mean he is beyond suspicion, but he has been fairly reasonable up until now.

I do however, disagree with Lvdr's assessment of Shady Sands. He has been very critical so far, but nothing he has said comes to mind as particularly proactive (I'll eat my word if he can give me a counter-example). In particular, his critique of Lvdr's comment:

filter
On August 24 2012 08:54 Lvdr wrote:
Show nested quote +
Having learned from hapa, I think mafia tend to be pretty lurky in newbie games.

Therefore, d1 lurker lynch is a great policy. However, this should not be a reason to not be scum hunting: scum hunting is vital, and forcing reads early is how town can catch mafia later in the game.


He said:
Show nested quote +
I'm confused here: you seem to be implying that D1 lurker lynch and scumhunting are mutually exclusive. How?


This seems like empty criticism, as he almost seems to deliberately misinterpret the statement in order to give himself something to say. If Lvdr thinks we should lynch lurkers, but not give up actively scumhunting in order to do this, then it does not at all seem that he is suggesting these two things are mutually exclusive. Yet this is what Shady seems to suggest.

Furthermore, Lvdr has played with Shady before, and claims that Shady should by now have an idea of Lvdr's policy preference.

Soon afterwards, he had the following criticism of Fubu's post:

On August 24 2012 06:30 mkfuba07 wrote:
Show nested quote +
Hi everyone! I'm going to second everything that thrawn has said, as well as mention that this goes for night as well as day. As long as we keep the scumhunting going during the day, I think the conversation will carry over into night as well. Let's just make sure we keep it up!


He wrote:
Show nested quote +
:S I don't get what you're trying to say here. If you believe the scumhunting convo will carry automatically from day to night, then why do you need to encourage activity specifically during the night as well?


This is an accurate criticism, but not particularly useful. IMO (and fubu feel free to step in and correct me) Fubu's post was poorly written and he mistakenly made his both a descriptive and prescriptive assertion: that we will all look for scum during the day and the night and that we should all look for scum in the day and the night.
If my interpretation is correct, then this is a completely understandable mistake and speaks extremely little of some scummy motivation he may or may not have.

So far I have shown you two examples of what I believe are needlessly critical posts, that is: posts that are needlessly skeptical of things that will not help us catch scum. Now, as WeeTe has already mentioned, posting lots is generally attributed to town behaviour. However, posting lots of unproductive criticism seems like the sort of thing a scum would do to look like town but not contribute to the lynching of scum.

FoS Shady Sands

I would like to note that I am the first person to my knowledge that is acting against Shady, and IMO I am the first person to put up a decent reason to actually suspect anyone. I'm gonna get back to study, and I'll likely be unable to post for the next 11 hours, at which point I'll go through a read and post before heading to bed.


This is his fourth post in XXV, just four hours in - and he's already contributing and getting some accusations and analysis out there. I'd encourage everyone to read through some of his XXV filter and think about whether his play here is anything like his play there, or indeed anywhere near as worthwhile from a town perspective.

tl;dr:
Spag isn't taking a firm stance on anything and isn't scumhunting at all. Other people are doing the same, but there are two major differences:

- Spag has posted a lot. While the lurkers worry me, the point of threatening to lynch lurkers is that they are then obliged to post, and scum will have to post useless things... like Spag is. The sheer quantity of his posts while saying nothing of worth is the clincher here.
- Spag was constructive very early in his last game as town.

##Vote: Spaghetticus

I'm not messing around with pressure votes anymore, this is a vote with intent to lynch. All aboard!

@Everyone: If you're not on this wagon you'd better have a really good reason why.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
December 20 2012 10:36 GMT
#542
Why I've switched from voting for cDgCorazon:

1) I have a better scum read.

2) I think he's looking for scum. Inexpertly, perhaps; but in between defending himself there are hints of genuine searching for scum. He'd be sheeping the Threesr case/general suspicion if he'd posted a rehashed case or voted him. In fact, Corazon tried to pressure Threesr. Not the same thing at all.

Like I said earlier, I want to see more hunting from Corazon. I'm certainly not convinced that he isn't scum.
Spaghetticus
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia451 Posts
December 20 2012 10:40 GMT
#543
I was wondering if it would come. I'll have a read Aquinim, expect a response soon.
OmniEulogy
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada6592 Posts
December 20 2012 10:47 GMT
#544
I'll wait to see an answer to my questions from Orange, and Spaghetticus' reply. Till then Corazon is still my #1 read.
LiquidDota Staff
Orangeremi
Profile Joined July 2011
United States94 Posts
December 20 2012 11:35 GMT
#545
On December 20 2012 19:29 OmniEulogy wrote:
@Orangeremi Are those three still your top reads? If not who is new and can you give any additional information about why you are focused on those players. I don't really have any more to say about anybody for now so I'd like to hear some other opinions about the way things are going.

Also if we had to vote right now how would you feel about a Corazon lynch? Best option or do you have better reads on somebody else?


I'm not fond of how Kickstart is currently playing. He's the #1 lurker right now and I'd put him near the top of my list of suspicion. I want to see more of what he has to contribute, so far I'm not impressed.

Corazon has done a lot more than expected in an attempt to redeeming himself. I'm not convinced he is scum anymore but I'd still keep my eye out. The other two players have yet to post anything since they've become top reads, I'm waiting on that.

The case for Spag is huge, I'm leaning towards that. It's really the only case so far that has actually made me consider voting something other than no lynch (my previous top choice). I'd currently rate my voting choices at 1. Spag 2. Kickstar 3. FatChunk with a possibility of no lynch if they have sufficient evidence to the contrary.
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
December 20 2012 11:50 GMT
#546
Votecount:

cDgCorazon (5): Chromatically, OmniEulogy, threesr, shz, Sylencia
threesr (3): FatChunk, Mocsta, cDgCorazon
Orangeremi (1): cakepie
Spaghetticus (1): Aquanim

Not voting (3): Kickstart, Orangeremi, Spaghetticus

Currently, cDgCorazon is set to be lynched! ~12 hours remaining in day 1.
Please PM any of your friendly neighborhood hosts if your vote is counted incorrectly.

Please also "##unvote" when your vote is already on somebody, makes it easier on the votecount bitches.

Remember: If you don't vote at all, you will be smitten by divine wrath.

Full version:

+ Show Spoiler +
cDgCorazon (5): Aquanim, Chromatically, threesr, OmniEulogy, threesr, shz, Sylencia
threesr (3): FatChunk, Mocsta, Corazon
Orangeremi (1): cakepie
Spaghetticus (1): Aquanim
Mocsta (0): shz, threesr,
FatChunk (0): threesr, threesr
Aquanim (0): cDgCorazon
shz (0): Mocsta

Not voting (4): Kickstart, Orangeremi, Spaghetticus

A backwards poet writes inverse.
Orangeremi
Profile Joined July 2011
United States94 Posts
December 20 2012 12:07 GMT
#547
Could we get a clarification on the lynch deadline, please?
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
December 20 2012 12:17 GMT
#548
Lynch is at 00:00 GMT (+00:00)
A backwards poet writes inverse.
Spaghetticus
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia451 Posts
December 20 2012 12:20 GMT
#549
I will start by stating that I have been all too aware of my inactivity pertaining to scum-hunting, I may have even mentioned it a couple of times. I have actively flaunted my strong town position, and other than cakepie, I don't think I've heard a single complaint. I am by no means saying you are incorrect to attack me, I actually admire the ambition, as I was starting to feel comfortable. I've read somewhere it's best not to address every point, I'll try not to heap too much reasoning on you, but if I miss anything important, feel free to ask again. //fluff

My contribution:
My first issue is that you say I have done nothing useful. This is false. My contribution is substantial, you have just turned a blind eye to the benefits the town has wrought. I have not accused a single soul, and for good reason. People that are pressured say stupid things, that are misinterpreted by an overeager inquisition. I am more interested in observing the flow of the game until I feel I can make a solid case that will actually change minds, than in beating a horse beyond death.

In Mafia there is always going to be people that pressure, and people that don't. The people that don't are seen as lurkers, but I would draw an exception for myself. I have contributed an enormous amount of brain power to this game, though I guess my approach is not as straightforward as yours. I play support. I am the medivac to your marine. I try to keep the unbridled enthusiasm of Newb Town from bandwagonning themselves to death by deception.
I try to keep people active without making them defensive (see how that worked out for Threesr and Corazon?). This is the job I set myself in the absence of actual cases. I was assuming that if my performance was unsatisfactory I would be given a warning before getting hard cased, but this works for me too, your case will give everyone the measure of both me and you, so no hard feelings.
My Lectures serve to try and keep the town machine running smoothely, and for people to learn. I guess I’m coaching a little, but it’s not as if I’ve addressed any issues that weren’t pertinent to the current game. I like to think I’ve done more scumhunting by calling others to do so, but of course, that BS won’t fly when trying to convince someone else of this.

Basically

1) I believe by moving people to action I am effectively scum hunting

2) Up until now I saw no reason to try to appear more town

I am more than capable of throwing weak case after weak case at someone, but I don’t like producing weak cases and avoid it if possible. I enjoy the respect I get as someone that offers genuine insight, and there have been multiple examples of people misconstruing these weak attacks as scum play. I understand they are not scummy, but I still do not want to besmirch my good name by offering up anything I don’t actually believe, and don’t expect you to believe. Basically, I saw no reason to change the playstyle I am comfortable with so I didn’t. Such an absence of scumhunting is conspicuous, and as I said before, I knew that I wasn’t actively scumhunting. I did however, underestimate the upset it would cause when someone realised for real.
My meta:

When you point to my activity in my previous game, I played different because I was against different people. In particular, Shady Sands was being both a lead town and an illogical player. He ended up being mafia, it was an easy pickup. His strategy was aggressive, and I needed to shut him down before he got a handle on town. In this game there is no such threat that I can see, and so I have not acted in the same way. I have up until this point been afforded the respect of a semiconfirmed town, and everything has run smoothly. I expect people will be hammering me for reads now, this is also okay.

Lists:
I use lists for my memory, I am fond of them but my friend that plays mafia think they are bad as they are a scum tell. When I tell people to ignore the list, I am telling you that my contribution will be substantial with or without the lists. People see others making lists and have heard this is a scum tell so they assume that the people making lists are scum. The reason it is a scum tell is that people use it to hide their inactivity, which was not my intent and has not been the outcome. You do not have a leg to stand on in this regard.

Rebuke of Mocsta's Early Town Tells:
He was potentially misleading town, and setting himself up to take control. I stopped him the same way I did SS, though I did not make a case out of it because there wasn't one.

Theory of Town and Scum:
I have not stated my thoughts but that does not mean I haven't devoted a lot of time developing them. I'm confirming with a large degree of confidence that neither Threesr nor Corazon are scum. This degree of confidence is a big deal for a meticulous SOAB like me. I've determined that Chromatiacally, Aquinim, Cakepie, and Mocsta will need to be dealt with later rather than now if they happen to be scum. That's narrowed the list of lynchable candidates down to six for me, this is no small analysis! Your assertion that I have not developed any theory is BS. Rather than flaunt every thought that tickles my ol' brain I know my understanding will only get better with time, and voting now is pretentious or whimsical.

Asking Kickstart for meta reads:
You say this wasn’t useful. Surely you could see the potential of such a move? I am lighting a fire under a lurker, and attempting to mine a new vein of data. As far as post efficiency goes you can’t fault me on this.

“So Spag thinks that the best way to get town back to scumhunting is to defend someone under pressure, not make a case himself? Words fail me.”

In this particular instance this is exactly what I thought. I don’t have any really solid cases, I am still narrowing down suspects. Any case I would post at that point would likely fall on deaf ears and I really believed I could benefit town by taking pressure off of the obvious targets and spreading the suspicion around.

"Spag's whole "I'm defending Corazon but still happy to vote for him" BS is a classic scum move too - keeping his options open for new developments so he doesn't have to contradict himself later. I'm not saying that town would never do this, but it's pretty damn scummy."

I am no longer happy to vote for Corazon which I believe I expressed in the same post. Through writing the post I came to the conclusion that he is the towniest person here, and I will stand by that statement. I am sorry I did not go back through and edit for consistency, I was tired after doing a LOT of legwork for this game. You’re welcome.

If I were scum I would likely push my way through the pain barrier and put on the façade of scum-hunting in order to fit in with town. I am not above pretending to be productive if I roll scum and that’s in my job description.

Do I draw an enormous double standard? Definitely.

Do I contribute to town in every other way I can think of, above and beyond the sum contribution of most players? Absolutely.

Being active but not scum-hunting reeks of incompetence if you are a mafia. It usually indicated incompetence in a townie too. I am not incompetent. Your logic is simple and effective, much like Chrom’s, but I function in a different way to you, and you have to admit that a scum Spag also does not make sense with your predefined expectations. A scum Spag would do everything in his power to appear useful while hindering town. I have gone out of my way to help town in ways that are not directly measurable. Have I even tried to sway the vote of anyone other than away from Threesr and Corazon? I have only tried to optimise town as a whole at the expense of personal survivability.

Please people, go through everything said against me and give thoughts on what I haven't adequately explained. I need hide nothing. If you want reads I'll give you the best I have on those you ask. I'm up for two more hours before going to bed. I'll need to get up earlier than normal to be present for or near the lynching. I have a commitment but I'm not sure exactly whether it will infringe on mafia.

Spaghetticus
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia451 Posts
December 20 2012 12:23 GMT
#550
get your questions in guys ASAP, I don't want to leave them unanswered.
Orangeremi
Profile Joined July 2011
United States94 Posts
December 20 2012 12:35 GMT
#551
Spaghetticus, you make claims in your rebuttal that if you were scum you would do everything in your power to appear useful while at the same time hindering town. Could you go elaborate? What would you be doing differently than you are now?
OmniEulogy
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada6592 Posts
December 20 2012 12:51 GMT
#552
#Unvote
##Vote: Spaghetticus
##FoS: cDgCorazon

Congrats Corazon. I still think you are scum but I'm going to hunt your buddies for the rest of the day.

This post reads to me "I'm playing my game and I don't care what yours is, I'll just sit in the middle of the room so you know I'm here"

And I must have missed the part where you were ever happy to vote for somebody instead of defend them without giving us any other leads. For such a big post it doesn't say very much. Please stop coaching and ask one of the real ones for help because if you are town you've just dragged me away from my top scum reads for a moment.

Personally I read Mocsta as town and don't mind him trying to lead conversation for the next day and night. If he is scum the amount of talking he'll have to do will eventually make him slip up.

I'll also ask you how Corazon is the towniest person here when as soon as he received a few more votes + Show Spoiler +
On December 20 2012 13:27 cDgCorazon wrote:
Sigh, I thought this was newbie Mafia, and all of you seem to be using strategies that newbie Mafia players shouldn't know. TL Mafia surfs, maybe?


and

On December 20 2012 13:28 cDgCorazon wrote:
GG



were the first things he said. Even if he is being sarcastic it's still just another scum tell in my eyes. You don't post a bunch of potentially scummy things, get told people think you are scum for doing it, and then do it even more. If you are town you try to convince other people that it was a mistake and give them feedback and correct your actions.

That taken into account I can explain this massive post as "please don't lynch my scummate" and it all sounds pretty reasonable.
LiquidDota Staff
Spaghetticus
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia451 Posts
December 20 2012 12:53 GMT
#553
I would be attacking people with argument I expect to be easily answered. I would put less effort into pulling people up by the boot-straps and more into either working towards a more advanced play like falsely pressuring a scum buddy, or simply tearing through people with hastily constructed arguments. I would disregard more difficult concepts when it suited me in order to ramp up the pressure and force slips from innocents. I would be all over any pseudo evidence that people slip up like Corazon's I AM A MAFIA slip. If Corazon was actually mafia I'd bus him and take no hit from anyone.

Note: this is not how I will play my next scum game. This is what I would have done this game if I had rolled scum.
Orangeremi
Profile Joined July 2011
United States94 Posts
December 20 2012 13:07 GMT
#554
Omni, if you believe your theory true, who is scum #3? If you have a read, that is.
Spaghetticus
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia451 Posts
December 20 2012 13:14 GMT
#555
Okay OmniEulogy next.

Someone making an explicit display of jumping through hoops to improve townplay is not a scumtell. Someone jumping through hoops to save anyone is not a scumtell fullstop. It is a bold scum that stands up for a buddy knowing fullwell that if things go wrong, they have not just sacrificed their worst member, two of their total members, leaving their last brother alone vs oh so many town.

I honestly find the rate at which you bandwagon alarming. That is either lazy town behaviour or scum behaviour IMO. You have just gone up in my reads. I am not OMGUSing you, other criticisms/votes have been reasoned, and so I have not retaliated. Yours are not. You write almost with a sigh of relief as if this new wagon solved a problem for you.

- You realised you were not on my 'lynch later' list
- You were having difficulty with the Corazon scenario because either he is mafia (which I doubt), or one of your scummy friends or yourself had invested too deeply in his lynching.
- You insult my competency in order to lower influence of my words
- It's interesting that you hold a standard of "lynch later" for other active players, but hold no such thing for me. I have also been forced to talk at length and will be forced to slip if I continue at this rate.

I have given you very good reasons why I think both Threesr and Corazon are town. If you can't respond to this reasoning, I will assume you did not give them adequate time and would ask you to go read them again. At no point did I say I believe Corazon to be a skilled Town player. You seem to be playing this game at a very simple level and I can't say I don't believe your rash input is not tactically motivated. You are now my top read.
##FoS: OmniEulogy
I will be trawling through your filter tomorrow.
OmniEulogy
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada6592 Posts
December 20 2012 13:20 GMT
#556
if there even is a 3rd it could be a current lurker.
Sylencia has had a pass today and claimed so ahead of time so we have no reads at all on him.

Cakepie hasn't said very much. long posts but not many of them.

Kickstart has even fewer posts and much less content. makes it hard to judge him as well.

And then Fatchunk would be most likely at the moment if you or Corazon flip scum based on people who have been involved in the conversation.

I'd say in those 4 we have a 3rd scum if one is present.
LiquidDota Staff
OmniEulogy
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada6592 Posts
December 20 2012 13:41 GMT
#557
I was ready to tunnel Corazon until your horrid defense to Aqua's case. 100% believe he is scum. Doesn't mean I'm not going to look for other scum though.

and if by bandwagon you mean make the case and stick with it for 30~ hours while continuing to bring up new material that hasn't been said. Yup total bandwagon. I ignore the original vote on him as a way to gauge how he reacts and gets conversation started. He slips - argues with Threesr and then I make the 3rd vote on him (2nd with evidence) and push for others to also vote and put pressure on him.

I don't think I have to play this game at a higher level than simple. It establishes me as town, helps in scum hunts and I give my input about how people are acting and how I feel about them. Why would I try to be more complex than that in my first game? I'd just confuse people and myself.
LiquidDota Staff
Orangeremi
Profile Joined July 2011
United States94 Posts
December 20 2012 13:47 GMT
#558
I'm not completely sure I'll be awake by lynching time, so I'm going to toss out a vote just in case

##Vote:No-lynch

If I return I will do my best to find a more suitable vote. Until then, adieu!
threesr
Profile Joined April 2011
73 Posts
December 20 2012 14:16 GMT
#559
So Orangeremi has contributed absolutely nothing for the entire game. Now he may not even make a vote today and hes had a ridiculous amount of time in this game to make a decision. wtf
Spaghetticus
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia451 Posts
December 20 2012 14:20 GMT
#560
Bugger tomorrow IDGAF

To play devils advocate for Theesr on his stance on lurkers. I could see scum using LAL to their advantage and making us waste most of D1 while they play it safe and then bandwagon a lurker, we lynch said lurker he turns up to be town and if things have really gone poorly we learn nothing and scum comes out ahead of us on D1.

I agree with Kickstart entirely when he says we should push scum reads over policy lynches. Truthfully I'm more worried about anybody who thinks we should lynch lurkers without second thought.


While I actually liked the last part and even took a note in the satisfactory column, Omni does little here but say a bunch of safe stuff. He came across as a little bold when he proclaimed his disapproval of thoughtless lynching, but in retrospect this is actually a very safe move.

(points finger at Threesr and Corazon)


Another safe play. These guys were destined to get it. I predicted the shitstorm (though admittedly I named Shz as well), if the info was available to me it was available to Omni. Targeting the weaker town is a move that a scum naturally does whether they are new or not. What would you do if you were scum?

If he latched onto Corazon because he realized he would be extremely easy to put him under suspicion. (followed by Corazon actually stating he's Mafia) I can't really see Corazon being town but if he is and has just made every mistake he could then my reason behind Theesr being shitty town would disappear and he would become my #1 scum read instead of #1 shitty town


See how if Corazon comes up innocent (which I think he will) then Omni has set the stage to move onto the next easiest player. Even if these players were scum they would pose very little threat. This is positioning for an incredibly strong day three for the mafia, leaving 2-3 strong players, a bunch of lurkers, and zero leads.

Also Chunk is the only one who has tried to defend Corazon but hasn't come completely out and said he thinks he's innocent, just that with ALL the evidence he still can't vote for him? I'm going to stick with Corazon as my #1 scum read but Chunk seems suspicious just based on that to me.


More bagging on the lowest players. The big three are common knowledge and a safe sell at the point of writing the above quote. Omni continues to say absolutely nothing at all risky. He is waiting for things to be safe and then stating the obvious. He openly displays all the signs of posing bluster I resent to demonstrate myself.

The thing is we don't know if SK is even in the game. If he is Mocsta could very well be the SK and just trying to get along with everybody and do his best to scumhunt to curve suspicion, I could be the SK for pushing my idea for a lynch on you, shz could be the SK for generating reasons for why we should lynch multiple people. This early it is way too hard to tell how a 3rd party would play. You've given us the most reads as scum out of everybody from my point of view, and as we've discussed right now we have the most to gain from your lynch.


This is actually the one decent thing I've heard from him all game. I endorse this message.

If anybody can clearly give us a way to gain more information while at the same time getting rid of suspicion of Corazon I am all for it. I don't want to lynch somebody who could be town just because we all tunnel him. Let's try and get some information from other lurkers. What do they think of the current situation ect.


See this? This is someone that has the gall to ask for someone to do the very thing I have been doing, then nails me for it (but only after someone else does... can't be too safe).


You have good points Spaghetticus but it doesn't really change my mind. People did come to his defense and tried to counter by voting for Threesr.

Corazon started off the game saying he hoped D1 would be quiet and peaceful and no real information should come out during it which also seems a little scummy as everybody else started off hoping for some good conversation and to build up leads. Not wait for N1/D2 where we lose somebody and have no information about why they die.

The fact that he's new CAN explain these things but I refuse to believe he is dumb. I think he thought it out and tried to come across as reasonable. I've already said I want to start going after the lurkers with our remaining time D1 and if we find something that removes Corazon from suspicion so be it.

My vote is not locked yet it is just on the person I find most likely to be scum. I don't think he's past the point of no return either. I believe the vote count is 5 for Corazon and 3 for Threesr at the moment. and as I said Threesr would be my #2 if it weren't for the fact that it wouldn't make any sense for both him and Corazon to be scum.

I'd like Corazon to tell us his top scum reads, and why they seem to be.

I'd also like to note to Spaghetticus and everybody else that if you are looking for more people who came to Corazon's defense, Orangeremi tried to make a case of why Corazon wasn't scum and went back to lurking. I'd like to actually hear why Orangeremi refused to give us an idea of who his top scum reads were and why he didn't actually say why Corazon wasn't acting scummy. The fact that he then put out the same three names for his top scum reads that everybody else had and then went into hiding again is also suspicious.

In Orangeremi's own words "Instead of looking for scum players, they would be making unjustified claims hoping others hop wagon in an attempt to get an innocent player lynched." and then "Otherwise, I have a slight suspicion of Sylencia that is based solely on a hunch and little to no evidence."

based on that... ##FOS Orangeremi


This defense of his vote almost seems like he's committing to a lynch, until you realise he was just waiting for a better lynch for scum to present itself. Yes I believe I'm a bigger prize than Corazon's entirely compromised town play, because I have a better position, and because I play more like a blue role would (less aggression).


I was ready to tunnel Corazon until your horrid defense to Aqua's case. 100% believe he is scum. Doesn't mean I'm not going to look for other scum though.


My defense was not horrid. I take offense.

and if by bandwagon you mean make the case and stick with it for 30~ hours while continuing to bring up new material that hasn't been said. Yup total bandwagon. I ignore the original vote on him as a way to gauge how he reacts and gets conversation started. He slips - argues with Threesr and then I make the 3rd vote on him (2nd with evidence) and push for others to also vote and put pressure on him.


On a person which the zeitgeist favours as a bandwagon. I don't care how long you spent blustering at the obvious pickups of non-town behaviour. The guy's level of play was inadequate and the case made itself. Do you really think his door would not have been knocked down without you? He was in for pressure, from you or otherwise. You wasted your time while pretending to contribute. Scummy.

I don't think I have to play this game at a higher level than simple. It establishes me as town, helps in scum hunts and I give my input about how people are acting and how I feel about them. Why would I try to be more complex than that in my first game? I'd just confuse people and myself.


"I don't know if I'm doing the right thing, so I will assume that I am and not try to improve my play, as playing dumb will convince people I'm town."

I am actually genuinely impressed with your expression here, regardless of your alignment. The problem I have is that you are pushing to lynch me and my two best town reads because of your failure to look deeper. Try harder.

When you address me or speak of me in any way, please refrain from throwing emotional garbage about. It makes me like you more if you don't. Tell me what's wrong with what I said, not how wrong it is. Words without reason are meaningless fluff, or peripheral associative priming depending on who the listener is. A townie should have logic behind his claims.
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