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@Chrom
I have absolutely zero problem currently with the way you conduct yourself. Your approach is direct, and simple. I begin to suspect they are a little forced, as I can't imagine anyone that is this selective in the data they choose to interpret wanting to play a ridiculously complex game like mafia, but for now you serve a purpose (that sounds more cold than I mean it  ).
I would normally brush your commentary aside, but I feel that while I have been very active, I have given next to nothing on my actual perspective. So that you have a standard to later judge my actions by, I will respond.
"I dislike your post saying that we should "expect a town lynch". Good towns can find scum d1. Good players can be correct in their reads with over "40%" certainty. Your post reads like you're not going to even try to find scum."
Assuming you are town, you should start the game with a neutral 25% suspicion of everyone (you are the 13th player). Through day one, people will pave the way with false bravado and bluster, but ultimately, day one only serves to identify the people you are playing with. I now have a feel for your styles, an have limited information about what you can and cannot do without bringing the scumhunt to your door. There is incredibly little actually being done, and evidence is inconclusive. I admit, I don't know the actual statistics, but I assume the chances of lynching scum on day one is 25% or less. I believe the inputs for this equation are actually very complex, but I'll try and simplify and communicate the little I do understand.
You posit that 'good' town can find scum d1. This is true, and that should be a focus, but this is unlikely to happen because:
1) - Good scum are approximately equally as abundant good town. For every master inspector there is an escape artist. Your argument from town competency is counteracted.
2) - The scum are manipulating our vote. Three informed votes have a lot of sway in the uninformed majority.
As I hope to have adequately expressed above, it is actually incredibly optimistic to expect a day one scum lynch. On top of this, any scum lynches could be the result of an early bus, which leaves the scum with all the cards. I expect the number of successful scum lynches that do not involve some more advanced mafia play are even less than the 20-25% mentioned earlier.
Mafia, much like starcraft, is a game with phases. I play macrozerg, I win with broodlord infestor. Trying to 6pool out a win on day one is not my style.
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Sigh, I thought this was newbie Mafia, and all of you seem to be using strategies that newbie Mafia players shouldn't know. TL Mafia surfs, maybe?
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@Corazon
The information is there for the reading.
Please don't surrender if you are town, the voting is inconclusive. People have been pressuring with their votes all day, the only difference here is that they all decided to do it to the same person. Sheeping this hard this early is crazy and almost certainly scum manipulation. Despite your play being scummy, I would prefer someone else get the lynch just so that the sheeple will stop being so lazy and keep making cases. That a supposed majority have settled on one person this early is IMO retarded, people need to throw down the hivemind mentality.
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I'm just confused, at first they tell me I'm not being direct with any of my answers, and then I start being direct with my answers and then they vote me off? It literally does not make any sense.
What if I am town? I'm gonna surrender if you guys vote for me.
I have been trying my hardest to pursue my one lead, threesr, and all you guys want to do is defend him while persecuting me? So what if I'm listening to HSC and they say the word "as" and I type that out? Have you never done that before? I got a warning for editing my post and still allowing people to see what I said. If I had edited it out, no one would've seen it and I would've gotten a warning still.
You guys have 2 choices: Someone who is not trying to accuse every single person that speaks out against them, or someone who is. If you guys really want someone who only gives sarcastic answers and looks like he doesn't want to be here?
Make the right decision, that is my defense. Don't be stupid.
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On December 20 2012 12:54 Mocsta wrote:
(3)Neither Mafia nor Town
There is still the possibility of Rene Des Cartes being a role (aka Serial Killer). I think the way Threesr is playing is potentially the way an SK would play. (i.e. wanting to lurk, but at the same time voting Town/Mafia doesnt matter, so can easily change votes)
For me, all the reason above are genuine threats to town.
I believe that this is a very good read from Mocsta. Threesr has made threats against 3 players today. If he was town he would be focusing his case on one person, which he has realized now and has voted for me, only when the lynch Corazon bandwagon got started up again. He's just trying to lynch anyone and everyone, so he can gain credibility with the town and sit back as we all kill ourselves by day, and he kills the rest by night.
Great point Mocsta.
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On December 20 2012 05:18 cDgCorazon wrote:
I've never been one to jump to conclusions, and to vote someone out on Day 1 just by character analysis sounds like a really silly idea to me. I was going to push for a no-lynch vote.
Remember, I was the one who was gonna push for a no-lynch, even before suspicion turned on me. Doesn't sound very scummy, eh?
If I make sarcastic and short posts without any info, are you going to not persecute me as well? Cause I can do that as well.
It sounds snappy but when you know someone is not playing scum hunter and is creating chaos instead, you know something has got to be wrong.
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Ok, I read the last few pages and at first I was liking shz's idea with the posting of the 'conclusions' that could be made if X player was lynched but as I was typing up some of the reasoning behind my thoughts I realised that it doesn't really make sense to do that - which is what Chrom said...
Corazon: Remember that while most of us are newbies, there are players who have obs'd a few games before this, and seen the inner workings on how scum players play, what newbies do and general scum reads. Putting it into practice is of course a lot harder though. But don't be intimidated by all that, just play your best game and hope for the best.
Now, for who I am going to vote for - at the moment my thoughts are actually quite split multiple ways. First, I said I wanted to vote threesr, but I feel like the behaviour displayed shouldn't be considered TOO deeply (but still considered of course) because while it annoys a lot of people, the statements made were mostly just noise. However, the unvoting and voting of different targets makes me feel uneasy, as everyone who he has voted for has been in the firing line at some point during the day, and I can't tell if it's a way to try pressure others into following suit by way of numbers or not.
In the case of voting for Corazon - this is the easy path for me, I can simply sheep and jump onto the corazon train but I don't know if that's the right way either. He was targeted early, but this was due to the lack of reads at the time and I think that scum have jumped onto the opportunity to get someone out easy, and honestly to me the thing with Corazon is that while he is defensive, he is still clear with what he is saying and is direct in replying to things which are targetted at him.
Downside is he did make a slip, and it most definitely could've been subconciously done and I don't know if I should overlook that or not - since I learned from last game you should go with the most obvious pick from the most obvious reads. I chose to ignore it last time and I paid the price by losing us the game essentially.
Fatchunk I still have no idea about, I read his filter but I didn't get much from it.
I really hate this, but for now I am leaning towards Corazon, since I don't want to be ignoring 'obvious' tells like I did last game.
##Vote cDgCorazon
I can still change my vote for the next couple of hours before I leave but at the moment this is where I stand
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Vote cDgCorazon
fixed forgetting the bolding
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Forgot the pound sign this time. Not sure if intentionally, but now I'm laughing
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On December 20 2012 13:45 cDgCorazon wrote:
I believe that this is a very good read from Mocsta. Threesr has made threats against 3 players today. If he was town he would be focusing his case on one person, which he has realized now and has voted for me, only when the lynch Corazon bandwagon got started up again. He's just trying to lynch anyone and everyone, so he can gain credibility with the town and sit back as we all kill ourselves by day, and he kills the rest by night.
So you are going to vote on someone who might be scum or might be town, or someone who is behaving like a serial killer?
The logic isn't there guys.
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The thing is we don't know if SK is even in the game. If he is Mocsta could very well be the SK and just trying to get along with everybody and do his best to scumhunt to curve suspicion, I could be the SK for pushing my idea for a lynch on you, shz could be the SK for generating reasons for why we should lynch multiple people. This early it is way too hard to tell how a 3rd party would play. You've given us the most reads as scum out of everybody from my point of view, and as we've discussed right now we have the most to gain from your lynch.
If anybody can clearly give us a way to gain more information while at the same time getting rid of suspicion of Corazon I am all for it. I don't want to lynch somebody who could be town just because we all tunnel him. Let's try and get some information from other lurkers. What do they think of the current situation ect.
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Im at work, so will make an effort to put together a well-constructed post when i get home tonight. Prob 8-9hours.
I will state now for the record (in the hopes that it might prevent further sheeping) the below:
@Sylencia: I disprove of your candour in regards to sheeping. *Note: I am not calling you out as Mafia*
I don't think sheeping aids the scum hunt. By taking the "easy" path, and either admitting sheeping, or just copying others quotes; you provide no information as to where your allegiance lies (i.e town or mafia).
If the motives are town based, then we can not discriminate you as town easily, making the scum hunt harder.
If the motives are mafia based, then you are appearing to contribute and thus and satisfy the mafia modus operandi.
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EBWOP when I say other lurkers I don't mean Corazon is a lurker. I just meant lurkers in the game. poor choice of words.
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On December 20 2012 14:21 OmniEulogy wrote:
The thing is we don't know if SK is even in the game. If he is Mocsta could very well be the SK and just trying to get along with everybody and do his best to scumhunt to curve suspicion, I could be the SK for pushing my idea for a lynch on you, shz could be the SK for generating reasons for why we should lynch multiple people. This early it is way too hard to tell how a 3rd party would play. .
Before I go.
Can we not go into posts over whether SK is in or not. The point is to scum hunt, and this isnt helping.
I know I mentioned it first... BUT...
My initial thoughts of Threesr were based around motives hard to explain as town or mafia. This is why i said On December 19 2012 23:57 Mocsta wrote:
The conclusion is:
I currently view Threesr as a future uncertainty to deal with (i.e. interests may or may not be vested in Town, but I do not think is mafia).
I ask we leave this issue for the future, and for the rest of Day 1 work on building cases for Scum or putting pressure on lurkers (which are still prevalent).
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On December 20 2012 14:30 Mocsta wrote:
I ask we leave this issue for the future, and for the rest of Day 1 work on building cases for Scum or putting pressure on lurkers (which are still prevalent).
I do not believe this is the right course of action. You all have partially built a case against me, and if you were putting pressure on lurkers, you guys wouldn't be making a case on me. I for one, believe that this matter should continued to be pursued until threesr convinces us he is not either SK, Mafia, or a useless town player.
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no no Mocsta, thats what I was saying. Corazon tried to defend himself using the idea of Theesr being SK which is why I brought it up. We have no clue who or if anybody is SK so its pointless to worry about it. sorry if it was confusing to anybody else
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On December 20 2012 14:22 Mocsta wrote:Im at work, so will make an effort to put together a well-constructed post when i get home tonight. Prob 8-9hours. I will state now for the record (in the hopes that it might prevent further sheeping) the below: I disprove of your candour in regards to sheeping. *Note: I am not calling you out as Mafia* I don't think sheeping aids the scum hunt. By taking the "easy" path, and either admitting sheeping, or just copying others quotes; you provide no information as to where your allegiance lies (i.e town or mafia). If the motives are town based, then we can not discriminate you as town easily, making the scum hunt harder. If the motives are mafia based, then you are appearing to contribute and thus and satisfy the mafia modus operandi.
Ah, I should've clarified what I was saying in my post. I said it was possible to take the easy way out, but I did my vote based on the slip that he did, it wasn't purely off what others had said. I looked at the filters of the suspicious players (this part I admit I only looked at the players people were targetting) but I did come up with my own conclusion based off what I read.
I was very much leaning towards voting threesr before I fully read what everyone else had said but since there was the 'accidental reveal', I can't really just ignore it.
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Well, since I'm most likely going to be dead anyways, I think I will give you my reads and feelings on everyone. I'm claiming town, as is what everyone is doing, so I can tell you my reads on everyone so far in the quest to be rid of the scum.
Shz- Most of his posts have been containing little to no pertinent information. He has made one or two posts which have continued discussion, and has started a bandwagon to take out Mocsta. Seems like he does not really care who is being lynched as long as it is him. Could just be afraid to make any bold moves, or could be afraid to move into the spotlight for fear that the town will turn on him. Possible scum, but of course we need to see more information to make any further reads.
Omnieulogy- One of the first people to propose getting some discussion going, however, he is being a sheep by joining the lynch Corazon bandwagon without any new reason other than I am a target, and evidence off of one post. However, he could possibly be mafia as well, as he is playing it safe, possibly refusing to get in the spotlight on fear that he will be made a target as well.
Cakepie- Has made some very good reads, and has contributed the most on every single player out of everyone. It shows that he knows what he is doing. He could either be a master townie, or very good at blending in as Mafia. I'm leaning toward town, but we will have to wait and see what his next move is, as he is from Australia and most likely formulating a way to deduce the mafia as we speak.
Kickstart- Has only made three worthwhile posts so far. Possible mafia lurking? Maybe so. He seems to be playing just enough to get under the radar without being singled out as a lurker. I'll be watching out for him as the day progresses.
Chromatically- Has been persecuting me primarily from the start. Former shepherd of the sheep, until Threesr came into the picture. Seeing as he has been obsessed on seeing me lynched primarily so far, I have my suspicions on him. Persecuting someone just for not giving full answers seems like he is just trying to reach for candidates to lynch and get credibility with the town, when in fact he is trying to deceive them by murdering an innocent townie.
Mocsta- One of the few people that has made sense over this short game. He knows that being a sheep is basically being as bad of a townie as Threesr is claiming to be, and is trying to get you guys to make decisions for yourselves. He seems to be a smart lad, and I think we should rally around him as the game goes on.
Orangeremi- Is utterly uncommitted as to what bandwagon he is joining on. Has only made 1 or 2 real posts during the whole game. A lurker in disguise, but of course, we're not lynching lurkers. Or are we?
FatChunk- Has defended me in the hopes that you all won't vote me off. To me, he just seems like an uninformed townie who is trying to be a hipster and use reason and logic to make his voting decisions. Or he could be another mafia not wanting to get in the spotlight for fear of being put on the spot. He's 50-50 for me right now, but like with anyone else, that can change in a heartbeat.
Sphagettius- Another person who is using their brain. We don't have enough Sphagettius' in this game. Asking me for defense before coming to any conclusions. Why should I not trust this guy? He's here to get the job done the most methodical way possible. I like this guy and believe he is town, or a good maf.
Threesr- The new shepherd on the block. Able to use short answers and sarcastic responses to win over the hearts of the sheep and become their master. Doesn't care who gets lynched, as long as it is not him. He is either a bad town, a mafia, or a lone wolf. All are bad to town. Needs to be removed before he causes town to lynch all of their own members.
Aquanim- If this game was based off of the French Revolution, he would most certainly be Robespierre. The first to go head -hunting (which in my eyes is still a bad strategy) to start some sort of discussion, instead of FOS-ing and being a peaceful person. If I get lynched, who will be the next victim in his Reign of Terror (see what I did there?). Most likely a Mafia trying to get any pressure off of him and gain credibility with the town early.
Sylencia- Has not posted much, but that can be excused because he is from Australia. The few posts I have seen from him have been thoughtful and discussion-creating. I'm 50-50 on him so far, but I hope he can make a contribution to the town in the near future, in which time my opinion about him might swing one way or the other.
Well guys, I said I wasn't gonna jump to conclusions, but I've learned that jumping to conclusions is the logical thing to do on Day 1. Does this make me a Mafia pro now?
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I'm going to bed now, I will check the thread in the morning.
I would also like to point out that Sylencia is the only one who has accused me when it's been obvious I have an immediate chance to defend myself, 2 or 3 of you have voted me on the premise of not giving straight answers. Now that I believe I have done that, can I get an updated opinion of me? Aquanium and Chromatically.
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EPT
