EPTSorry for the strange typos/grammar. Fucking autocorret.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 30
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shz
Germany2687 Posts
Sorry for the strange typos/grammar. Fucking autocorret. | ||
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FatChunk
Canada93 Posts
@Chromatically You asked for a read on corazone, again. All I will say is that I think that the original suspicion behind corazone was never really fully justified. It is easy to pin two people together when their opinions happen to align, and thus you have created this me/corazone case. I'm not going to address everything in your post because I consider alot of your suspicions to be based on the fact that I know what I'm doing (lol, which I dont. it is either my ignorance or lack of experience in making reads and accusations as well as inability to present them accurately). When I was perceived as helping corazone, I simply meant to present an opinion, spark further discussion, and make a final decision on whether or not to lynch corazone tongiht. I will be careful when voicing who I agree with from now on. Also I am confused: scum hunting and expressing opinion is good for town, and when I try and provide the ONLY opinion I have at the time (threesr) I get labelled as not supporting evidence and trying to lynch anyone without reasoning. Chromatically suggests that I will vote anybody off (even though a vote is a tool to apply pressure), yet I am sticking to a read that is not the majority read at the moment. Town reads: Mocsta - clear concise posting , good leadership, asks the right questions to promote discussion. I agree with his read of threesr. His argument against spag needs work but I think his head is in the right place. Spag - I felt I should elaborate on this one since he's getting lynched tonight. While I agree that he has not shared a lot of his own analysis, neither have a lot of people. Also, he mentions that his analysis is in the background and will present findings as they arise. If he is not lying, this could be very useful to town. He has at least been active in trying to promote discussion, and defending people under pressure comes as a sideaffect of good judgement and rational thinking, something I respect. While I don't clear him completely of being mafia, I think it is more than likely he is town and we gain nothing from voting out Spag. Possible scum: threesr - derailing town thinking, being useless. I stand by previous comments. chromatically - I have noticed that he pressures too hard to the point of almost lying and skewing my words and overanalyzing small reactions in order to further his agenda. Faint vibe that I think should be looked into. Also, he seems like an experienced player which is scary if hes mafia. Aquanim - I believe aquanim, the driver behind lynching both spag and corazone, could be mafia trying to control town direction or at least direct discussion away from his mafia mates. sorry if my posts arent as professional as you guys'. | ||
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Kickstart
United States1941 Posts
My biggest issue is that he has given Cor a town read out of nowhere, and a strong town read at that. I have no idea how he got this read, because a look at Cor's posting does not leave me with "strongest town read in the game right now", I get a slight scum read at best. Now when trying to think of why he would make this statement, and hard defend Cor the only explanation that makes sense to me is that he is scum and is setting himself up to get some brownie points of of a mislynch on a townie. To elaborate a bit, the only way that Spag could KNOW if someone is town or not is if he is scum, and given that he has given Cor a strong town read, when absolutely nothing justifies that is,to me, an impossible move for town to make. But now think if he is scum. As scum, he sees that the entire thread is on Cor and now has 2 options, he can hop on the wagon, or he can defend someone who he knows is going to flip town to set himself up for day 2. At this point it is interesting to note that Spag looked to be setting himself up to join the wagon on Cor, because earlier he was agreeing that Cor was scum and stated he would be fine with voting for him, but then hit seems he decided on option 2 (defending someone he knows will flip town) and out of NOWHERE throws it out there that Cor is a strong town read for him (lol?) @Spag How did you come about getting a strong town read on Cor. You have done no explaining thus far on how you came do this decision, and I find that odd since as a towny the natural stance is to be suspicious of everything, so I fail to see how you can give someone a strong town read from nothing. ##Vote: Spaghetticus | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On December 20 2012 21:20 Spaghetticus wrote: My first issue is that you say I have done nothing useful. This is false. My contribution is substantial, you have just turned a blind eye to the benefits the town has wrought. I have not accused a single soul, and for good reason. People that are pressured say stupid things, that are misinterpreted by an overeager inquisition. I am more interested in observing the flow of the game until I feel I can make a solid case that will actually change minds, than in beating a horse beyond death. I quite agree with the last sentence here. However, there is nothing to be gained from discussing policy forever. That just allows helpful scum to "contribute" without committing themselves to anything, which is what you have been doing. When I tell people to ignore the list, I am telling you that my contribution will be substantial with or without the lists. And if your contribution had been, I wouldn't have brought it up. I try to keep people active without making them defensive (see how that worked out for Threesr and Corazon?). Indeed I do. Pressuring Threesr and Corazon, while it made them panic a little, did give us a better town atmosphere in which to hunt scum. It made your lack of constructive contribution more obvious. a scum Spag also does not make sense with your predefined expectations. A scum Spag would do everything in his power to appear useful while hindering town. I have gone out of my way to help town in ways that are not directly measurable. Have I even tried to sway the vote of anyone other than away from Threesr and Corazon? You HAVE done anything in your power to appear useful while hindering town by clogging up the thread with your supportive but worthless posts. Hypothesizing that Threesr and Corazon are town, as scum you would have a very good reason to defend them: one of them will probably be lynched, and you'll get town points for supporting them. And having got repeated town reads from other people for being nice and helpful, why wouldn't you continue? Now look, I'm not saying we should all be aggressive, pressuring machines making everyone's life here painful. I'm playing this way because someone has to, so that we have material to read. That said, if you are town you should have had some kind of analysis built up, even if you didn't post it, right? You proved you were capable of it in XXV... Apparently not. From the time of my case it took three hours for you to build anything resembling a case, and it's not even like you voted for Omni with it. If you were town, I'd have expected you to have some analysis you'd been doing for the last day and a half (you said you had notes, right?), and post it to prove you'd been doing something useful. Instead, you had to go and make an unconvincing case from scratch. A player who's not even been looking for scum privately IS NOT TOWN. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On No-Lynching If we no-lynch, we lose a productive town player overnight. We may obtain a useful cop check, but the odds aren't high, and that's the only thing we could possibly gain. We could lose a PR, too. If we lynch, we may lose a second town player in addition. However, they will be a town player who is playing in an unproductive way. However, we stand to gain a lot more than we lose if we lynch scum. And finally: A lynch is the only time scum are absolutely forced to commit to something. Votes at lynch are the biggest undisputable facts in the game. If we no-lynch we lose this information. Setup Speculation On December 20 2012 23:49 Mocsta wrote: Actually.. I think this is a very clever play. The dust needs to settle and votes need to be given the consideration they deserve. @Threesr: I also think that this is an extremely ironic statement given your pedigree this game. Now that I have read the thread. + Show Spoiler + I want to congratulate Mafia today. They have really stepped it up a notch in the second 24hr period. I have read the thread sporadically today, but topics and votes have changed significantly between p24 and p27 etc. This is exactly the type of confusion mafia need from us to survive. (i.e. have 2 or 3 ppl on the block, so they can spread their votes to hide identity). I am also surprised strong contributors from the 1st 24hrs have subsided in the second period. The last thing is: I re-read the OP for roles. + Show Spoiler + Out of the 13 roles, the default types of roles is 8 good guys, and (4+1) bad guys (1 = SK). I have not played this game before, but I am guessing the ratio may be balanced... i.e. 8 townies to 5 mafia. if we allow variance, it may be 9 townies and 4 mafia. (10/3 sounds way too skewed for town) My point is: I think there is 4 mafia this game. (Chance of 4 + 1 SK, still equates to 4 mafia) I am off to building a case. Rembember, scum have the two huge advantages of getting a kill on town every night, and knowing who one another are. 9-4 would be ridiculously mafia favoured. If you do the math, if town lynch randomly I believe 10-3 has a very large chance of scum win. (I know it's something like 70% in a 7-2 setup). If town has really weak PRs, 11-2 or 10-2-1 is even conceivable (check out C9++ for a sample of a 13-player setup). There's no guarantee, at all, that all of the roles in the OP are present. On Spaghetticus: @Corazon: I feel like this is the best course of action right now. Why don't you guys search for someone who is good at hiding their true and pick out their post instead of trying to lynch the noobs Day 1. Spaghetticus is not a newb. In fact, he's one of the more experienced players in this game. And he has indeed successfully hidden his true colours by appearing useful. So using your brain automatically makes you mafia? You have been posting rationally with your last couple of posts, does that make you Mafia. If you think he hasn't suspected anyone, read his long post in my defense. He said that I was still probably Mafia, but that you guys should not pursue me Day 1, as there were better Mafia players hidden in the shadows that you should have tried to confront to prevent them from having a bigger influence on the game. Using your brain does not make you mafia and it does not make you town. Using your brain in pursuit of mafia makes you town. And I did read his post. If he thought there are better Mafia players hiding, he should confront them himself. This is in fact exactly what I meant: he's telling everyone else to attack, pressure, make cases, etc. but not committing to any of them himself. So no one has said anything useful at all? Then why am I on the chopping block? Are you guys admitting that there is no good reason that I'm up here? (Disregard this if that post was in the quoted one, I wasn't sure). Well, you did scumslip pretty hard. And you've misinterpreted me a bit: at the time Spag made this post no-one had said anything useful. He has developed a theory of town and scum. It is day 1, you're not going to catch all of the scum in Day 1. He doesn't want to be the only one making reads, which since then most of us have made reads. You're just wrong. He made NO scum reads prior to my case. Why are you analyzing his first posts. This was before you started head hunting and turned this into the French Revolution, so I believe noting who has not posted is not a useless thing to do, and could definitely be a town action in my eyes. I agree, it's not useless. But it's an easy thing for scum to do convincingly. I don't argue that everything he's said is scummy, I argue that nothing he's said is particularly town. @Shz: 1. We should not assume someone is playing bad or good because of information from sources outside this game. I don't think this is very worthy of discussion. For all we know everybody could be a smurf, played with a smurf before, or just played somewhere else. Don't assume anything, look at their actions in this game. I agree partially with this. I don't assume that people without games on this site on this profile are inexperienced. I do assume that people with previous games on this profile on this site ACTUALLY PLAYED THOSE GAMES. And Spag demonstrated in the previous game which he played that he is capable of analysis and hunting, and has done neither this game. While I agree that Spaghetti is possible scum, the argument that rational posts = scum is dumb. I never argued this. I argue that rational posts does NOT equal town, and that there is good reason to think that Spag is scum. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
I don't argue that everything he's said is scummy, I argue that nothing he's said is particularly town. ... and given his volume of play and his experience, he SHOULD have said towny things by now. Also, one more thing: Defending people who are town, even if it's you, is a thing you can EXPECT mafia to do. It's called white-knighting and it's a common ploy to gain trust both from the person you protect and the rest of the town if and when they flip. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote: There has been a lot of curiosity as to why I defended Corazone and I would like to briefly address this. Early game consisted of corazone playing defensively due to a perceived slip, and thus everyone deciding the bandwagon behind a sheeping Aqua and Chromatically. Chrom then specifically asks my opinion on corazone, which I give although not very valuable, and I provide a read on threesr - a thought shared by others (Mocsta). I told myself when I started that logical, rational thought is what will benefit the town and will be the reason behind my voting. Call me bad i guess - I have pretty much no prior experience in mafia, so that is how I will play this game. Literally the only reason people are voting for me is because of coincidental association with corazone and being defensive, the former being a quality that, I imagine, is common in newbie games because hey, we all want to stay alive right? No, people (aka me) are voting for you because you've done nothing this game. You haven't pursued a scumread, you haven't taken any stances at all. The most bold thing you've done is placed a vote on threesr with almost no justification. If you actually think threesr is scum, you should actually analyze his posting and show why it comes from scum. You've said "he's useless"- that doesn't help @Chromatically You asked for a read on corazone, again. All I will say is that I think that the original suspicion behind corazone was never really fully justified. It is easy to pin two people together when their opinions happen to align, and thus you have created this me/corazone case. I'm not going to address everything in your post because I consider alot of your suspicions to be based on the fact that I know what I'm doing (lol, which I dont. it is either my ignorance or lack of experience in making reads and accusations as well as inability to present them accurately). When I was perceived as helping corazone, I simply meant to present an opinion, spark further discussion, and make a final decision on whether or not to lynch corazone tongiht. I will be careful when voicing who I agree with from now on. Also I am confused: scum hunting and expressing opinion is good for town, and when I try and provide the ONLY opinion I have at the time (threesr) I get labelled as not supporting evidence and trying to lynch anyone without reasoning. Chromatically suggests that I will vote anybody off (even though a vote is a tool to apply pressure), yet I am sticking to a read that is not the majority read at the moment. ... Okay, you don't respond to anything because you're a noob. Like everyone else in this game. It shouldn't be any harder for you to make a case on threesr if you're a noob. It shouldn't be any harder to take stances on things happening in the thread. If you want to lynch threesr, provide some real justification. Otherwise, pick Corazon or Spag, because one is getting lynched today. After looking it over, my order of preference for lynches is now: FatChunk -> Spag -> Corazon I don't think enough people have commented on FC. He's scummy for many of the same reasons as Spag: he hasn't pressured anyone, his only vote is on a player who was generally unsupported at the time. He's posted long posts that don't add anything to find scum. Spag has at least posted a case on someone, FC has not even provided justification for his vote, but insists that he's providing reasoning. I will consolidate on Spag if it's necessary (I agree with what has been said about his defense of Corazon), but I would much rather lynch Chunk today. Can everyone please look through his filter and tell me if they can see his posting coming from a townie? | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote: ... Spag - I felt I should elaborate on this one since he's getting lynched tonight. While I agree that he has not shared a lot of his own analysis, neither have a lot of people. Also, he mentions that his analysis is in the background and will present findings as they arise. If he is not lying, this could be very useful to town. He has at least been active in trying to promote discussion, and defending people under pressure comes as a sideaffect of good judgement and rational thinking, something I respect. While I don't clear him completely of being mafia, I think it is more than likely he is town and we gain nothing from voting out Spag. Spag has in fact promoted very little useful discussion. He keeps telling other people to post constructively, while not doing so himself. The best way to promote a good atmosphere is to lead by example. Again, I think that if he in fact had been doing analysis he'd have been able to post a better case than he did in far less time. I respect his judgement and rational thinking, too - I just wish he hadn't rolled scum so we wouldn't have to lynch him. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
FatChunk. Go. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
On December 21 2012 05:51 Chromatically wrote: Can we have regular votecounts now, please? No. Votecount: Spaghetticus (5): Aquanim, OmniEulogy, Mocsta, cakepie, Kickstart cDgCorazon (3): threesr, shz, Sylencia threesr (2): FatChunk, cDgCorazon No-lynch (1): Orangeremi FatChunk (1): Chromatically Not voting (1): Spaghetticus Currently, Spaghetticus is set to be lynched! ~3 hours remaining in day 1. Please PM any of your friendly neighborhood hosts if your vote is counted incorrectly. Remember: If you don't vote at all, you will be smitten by divine wrath. Full version: + Show Spoiler + Spaghetticus (5): Aquanim, OmniEulogy, Mocsta, cakepie, Kickstart cDgCorazon (3): threesr (2): FatChunk, No-lynch (1): Orangeremi, FatChunk (1): Orangeremi (0): Mocsta (0): Aquanim (0): shz (0): | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On December 21 2012 05:57 Chromatically wrote: @Kick/Aqua FatChunk. Go. This is gonna have to be brief. He certainly hasn't posted a whole lot. While that's a problem, and if he's town I want to see it rectified day two, it makes me less confident of a read on him. Spag's sheer quantity of posts without any pressure or committment is the elephant in the room. In what posts he has made, FC did justify his vote on Threesr a little bit: ... Threesr did a good job of contradicting views regarding lurking, diverting town chat paths, and the town seems to be talking a little bit but we are dancing around constructive discussion (not to mention the fact that Threesr has been quite inactive recently). Perhaps this is scum behaviour. ... And he did proceed to pressure Threesr some more (insofar as that's possible with <10 posts). Threesr is a very easy target and FC hasn't done anything huge so far, but I can believe this from a newbie town. Which is not to say I have any confidence in his towniness, he just hasn't contributed enough. tl;dr: FC is more inexperienced, has posted less in general, but attemped to look for scum a little. Spag has more experience, has posted more and demonstrated a fair bit of knowledge, but has not looked for scum. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Being a nice guy doesn't make Spag town. | ||
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Kickstart
United States1941 Posts
On December 21 2012 05:57 Chromatically wrote: @Kick/Aqua FatChunk. Go. I have a stronger read on Spag than on FC. While I am not the hugest fan of his posting I still feel I need to see more from FC to be able to make a solid read one way or the other, but on Spag he has given enough for me to make what I think is a scum read on him as outlined in my earlier post. Right now Spag is my top scum read so I am going to stick with that. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On December 21 2012 06:17 Aquanim wrote: This is gonna have to be brief. He certainly hasn't posted a whole lot. While that's a problem, and if he's town I want to see it rectified day two, it makes me less confident of a read on him. Spag's sheer quantity of posts without any pressure or committment is the elephant in the room. In what posts he has made, FC did justify his vote on Threesr a little bit: And he did proceed to pressure Threesr some more (insofar as that's possible with <10 posts). Threesr is a very easy target and FC hasn't done anything huge so far, but I can believe this from a newbie town. Which is not to say I have any confidence in his towniness, he just hasn't contributed enough. tl;dr: FC is more inexperienced, has posted less in general, but attemped to look for scum a little. Spag has more experience, has posted more and demonstrated a fair bit of knowledge, but has not looked for scum. I guess I can also believe that he's a new townie. Spag isn't really that experienced though (one game) compared to FC. I don't think that FC should have a problem truly justifying his vote with a legitimate case and analysis of threesr's posting. I also don't like that he only posts when pressured. This post too: + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 05:49 FatChunk wrote: ... Is this sufficient for you? I am sooo sorry that I didnt put corazon in that list - I either omitted him because I presented my thought on him already, or maybe just to bring light to the fact that we need to discuss other lurkers AS WELL AS Corazon. But, despite all that, I could see him just being bad town. I do hope that he'll do a better job during d2 and actually justify his vote, otherwise I will have to be back to pushing him. I think that it will be easier to tell if he's scum or not by his actions d2, so I will ##Unvote ##Vote: Spaghetticus If someone wants me to justify this, I will, but it's all been said already. Has tried to blend in, hard defended another player, has told others to scumhunt without actually doing anything, etc. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote: his argument against spag needs work '. morning. Woke up to a lot less activity than expected.Kickstarts token case extension was expected though. 1. @kickstart. Lets pretend u are mafia. Which mafia role do you think is powerful enoigh to justify lurking to fly under the radar and bus your team mate... 2. @fatchunk Dont throw out stuff like my case is weak and then proceed to identify zero reasons why. Discuss what you find conflicting or assuming | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
#Unvote ##Vote: Spaghetticus If someone wants me to justify this, I will, but it's all been said already. Has tried to blend in, hard defended another player, has told others to scumhunt without actually doing anything, etc. @chrome Yes. I would appreciate if you can justify your vote. Unlike you for me.. I have valued some of your contributions.. Hence i find it ironic. The person -who like spag has demanded other players to present their thoughts - now is openly bandwagoning. I am happy you have joined us in vote.this is what ma tters most. however considering the knowledge and pedigree exhibited earlier. I and perhaps everyone else expected much more than a token it has been said already | ||
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
How much time left until the lynch? Should I bother defending myself or should I make a final statement? | ||
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shz
Germany2687 Posts
##unvote ##Vote Spaghetticus @Aqua: If you did not argue that, then its all good. Of course rational not equals town, but its not equal mafia either. Its neutral. | ||
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