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On December 11 2012 02:03 Keirathi wrote:
I really don't think austin is scum. I didn't think ZB was scum, and austin hasn't really changed that. His play just feels COMPLETELY different than his scum play in Aperture 2.
I don't know what you expect from a town austin, but accusing him for going after the 3rd party is silly. Not that I particularly want to lynch Acro either, but "I think you're scum. Go prove that you aren't by finding scum for us because I'm too lazy and don't feel like looking at anyone except you" is silly.
Fine. I'll go and read Aperture 2. However, if you don't think austin is scum, who do you think IS the remaining scum? You know it's not me (or should, because even austin cannot make that case). You can use my handy colored chart to see what abilities confirm whom and work from there, or you can strike out on your own, but we know there is still scum left, or Lavos would've been summoned 2 cycles ago. So if not, austin, you have to find someone else. You cannot just say "austin isn't scum". The game doesn't work that way.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Acro only needing to kill a mafia member seems somewhat unlikely. At some point, he claimed his win condition hadn't been met yet and I believe Toad was dead by that point, but a 38 page filter is impossible to search through. I wonder if the all function goes away on a 50 page filter :p
I have a hard time believing that the Magus boss battle had absolutely nothing to do with his character. Perhaps he was recruited based upon the outcome of the event? Either way, I think he should be roleblocked into oblivion. His 100 damage doesn't help much if it is aimed at one of us, while jailing our damage output in the process. Once we lose the lynch, we have no way to punish his actions since all kp will be aimed at lavos.
Syllo should definitely block him just in case. I might also, even if he is claiming that I can't.
Syllo, how much damage will I receive as a result of your immunity target? It’s probably worth asking if this will protect me from Lavos.
I think I can do either 250 burst or 150 sustained. I'll have to do the math and double check the costs on my abilities.
Unfortunately, I haven’t learned Luminaire yet (I’m assuming that’s my final ability). It’s possible I could level up from today’s lynch or I could use my level up role, but that seems to cost too many mp.
Austin, unfortunately you’re at a point where the town cares more about ending the game, than identifying the final scum player. I could have been convinced to help swing the lynch to Acro, but I disagree with your assessment that not submitting a night action last night was the correct action. Perhaps whoever has to carry out the factional kp can’t act.
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On December 11 2012 02:45 Acrofales wrote:
What I get from austin since my post:
1. I am in fact 3P (thank you, my role pm agrees with you).
2. Nobody else looks like scum.
Therefore we should lynch 3P. Why, when we have obvious scum sitting right in front of us? I will simply repeat myself until the rest of town figures this out:
austinmcc has not addressed the fact that he was not looking past preventing himself getting lynched by making a case on the ONLY person who he could possibly get town to switch to.
He did not bother figuring out how his role worked, despite calling it scummy when SnB did not do that exact same thing.
He cannot explain why the shield on Hapa appears to not have existed.
He knows the rest of town has caught him out. He knows any case he makes on anybody else will look forced, because it WILL be forced (they're town after all). His only hope is to lynch the 3P.
Now me being a survivor obviously has me with a vested interest in surviving, but even without that, it is clear that austin is scum. He's run out of rocks to hide under and that is about it. He first threw the towel in the ring with his wise men post, but rather than continuing to blazinghand up the thread in hilarious manner, he took the lifeline Oats threw him.
Oh, and if you think I will be no help vs. Lavos, my 100 damage is worth 4 cycles of most townies being alive. I think I will more than pay for myself. I don't need your heals, I still have oodles of hitpoints.
Rawr. I made a case on the guy that I read as scummy. I did not make a case on the people that I don't read as scummy. This is bad apparently.
Yes, I did not ask what's up in 1999. I asked whether I could heal/shield myself (I can't), and I asked whether the shield was permanent or just blocked damage for one cycle. I did not ask this other question.
You can say that not asking that question shows that I'm not caring about the future, but I think it's pretty clear I am. I'm actively concerned with your wincon when others aren't. I'm...I guess doing what I can about trying to make people think about what the remaining last scum could be/could have (That isn't much, because it's just making stuff up, but at the very least people need to get out of the mindset that they know everything...because we don't).
And while yes, you claim to be able to do 100 damage and you claim you'll use that on lavos, we have no proof of either of those things. Same as you have no proof that I can do 300 damage with a shot, although I'd have to get hit first.
If I were throwing in the towel with the wise men post, I wouldn't be making an effort. Silly lynches get silly responses, and I enjoy playing this game, and silly responses are one way to enjoy playing the game while getting lynched again.
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On December 11 2012 03:25 kitaman27 wrote:
Austin, unfortunately you’re at a point where the town cares more about ending the game, than identifying the final scum player. I could have been convinced to help swing the lynch to Acro, but I disagree with your assessment that not submitting a night action last night was the correct action. Perhaps whoever has to carry out the factional kp can’t act.
If this were true and I were the last remaining scum, there wouldn't have been any factional KP 2 cycles ago when I healed iamperfection.
Nobody else claimed that heal.
clarity and Drazerk both died. No townie has claimed shooting clarity
Risk was lynched, so we were already down to 1.
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You would take 75 damage and I've already confirmed that it works against lavos.
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Austin the only way the lynch moves off you is if you find the last mafia and make a very convincing case. Lynching acro isn't happening and you shouldn't waste your time if that's your plan.
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What is it specifically that is different in Aperture 2. I am finding it hard to compare the two games. Here he replaced into the game 200 pages in which is bound to make his play different from any previous game. Furthermore, Aperture 2 had 2 scumteams, complicating the dynamics further. Please point me to specifics in austin's scum meta that make him not scum this game.
In the meantime I'll look at Hapa, but I really doubt I'll find anything new.
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On December 11 2012 03:25 kitaman27 wrote:
Acro only needing to kill a mafia member seems somewhat unlikely. At some point, he claimed his win condition hadn't been met yet and I believe Toad was dead by that point, but a 38 page filter is impossible to search through. I wonder if the all function goes away on a 50 page filter :p
That is correct. I lied, because I didn't want my wincon known, or guessable at that point yet.
I have a hard time believing that the Magus boss battle had absolutely nothing to do with his character. Perhaps he was recruited based upon the outcome of the event? Either way, I think he should be roleblocked into oblivion. His 100 damage doesn't help much if it is aimed at one of us, while jailing our damage output in the process. Once we lose the lynch, we have no way to punish his actions since all kp will be aimed at lavos.
Insofar as I know, the Magus boss battle had absolutely nothing to do with my role. My role pm at least mentions nothing about it. I gave arguments for what I thought were the best options for town to win the event, based on how the fight goes in the actual game.
Syllo should definitely block him just in case. I might also, even if he is claiming that I can't.
<snip>
You can't tonight. You can tomorrow night and afterwards.
I am fine being roleblocked. I don't think I need my heal. I don't particularly NEED to shoot Lavos either. I will, however be aimed at Lavos tomorrow, so Syllo the watcher could confirm that I am targeting Lavos if you really want to be paranoid. Other than that, I have to use Dark Mist tonight (either that, or Black Gemstone, and I prefer Dark Mist right now).
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Alright, so the only person who would be "confirmed" based on damage taken at night is syllo. Nobody else alive atm took a bit hit from scum that made it look like someone wanted them dead.
Syllo not caring about the game at this point and wanting to reward non-town acro for helping town aren't the towniest thing ever, but (1) I don't think scum would wait so long to set someone up with the damage; and (2) Syllo was townie to everyone BEFORE the damage, no need to shoot him (wastes heals, but wastes KP to do so).
So if the last scum is sitting pretty, it's not due to taking night damage (unless they had an exceptionally crazy plan with syllo.
Someone add to/subtract from my list if it's off. People who were more or less "confirmed" town early on?
prom
chronicler
oats
keirathi
That's more like a list of "people who aren't the ones we were suspicious of late" but those lists should be the same afaik.
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If you're going to try to remake my list post which was in the very case against you, why are you starting with the assumption that Syllo is telling the truth about damage taken?
Three quarters of the town is confirmed because they have consistently backed up each other's actions. Not because they have claimed to have taken damage.
In other news: I read Hapa's filter and find he actually looks townier than last time I checked. The only possible way I can see him being scum after going nuts at phagga last cycle, is if he is scum together with austin. In that case, I still prefer to lynch austin first.
While austinmcc is making a valliant attempt, he is still scum.
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Prom
Scummy on syllo early
Scummy on djodref early
Claims partial vengeful, good way to avoid getting killed
Had the shared damage PM mishap with syllo
Based on just basic stuff like that, I don't think he's the scum. While scum may have wanted to kill syllo early, the scum syllo train never seemed to get rolling. The vengeful claim is a nice way to keep people away, add a downside to trying to kill him.
But the shared PM bit makes him town in my book. Both parties back up the change in numbers, which makes it far more likely they DID share damage than not. We haven't seen anything else that would share damage, so we can assume Prom does have that ability. He shared damage with syllo, or claims to have, and scum was clearly trying to KILL syllo. He could have shared with other targets or just kept going in general, and so it doesn't seem like a good play to share damage THAT LATE when they're actually trying to kill syllo. Easy way to "confirm" himself early - take a little bit of damage N1 or N2 on someone that looks town, but why wait so long into the game to make that move? Doesn't make sense, therefore town.
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On December 11 2012 04:48 Acrofales wrote:
If you're going to try to remake my list post which was in the very case against you, why are you starting with the assumption that Syllo is telling the truth about damage taken?
Three quarters of the town is confirmed because they have consistently backed up each other's actions. Not because they have claimed to have taken damage.
In other news: I read Hapa's filter and find he actually looks townier than last time I checked. The only possible way I can see him being scum after going nuts at phagga last cycle, is if he is scum together with austin. In that case, I still prefer to lynch austin first.
While austinmcc is making a valliant attempt, he is still scum. We know that risk invited syllo and GK into the tent. Either he wanted to chat with syllo twice, or he wanted syllo with him to help control discussion in the mason chat.
If they wanted to team up and try to control discussion, then why not pick a more influential player? Then push an agenda within the mason tent on the third guy.
Moreover, if syllo were lying, we should be seeing more damage claims from GK unless risk absolutely wasn't sending in night actions. Possible, but again less likely than the alternative.
If syllo is scum, then risk just didn't do much with his power AND we SHOULD have some kp missing from the night that syllo claimed to take a boatload. Sorry, while I wish he'd quit lynching me and would actually think about what might happen tomorrow, I'm not buying him as scum.
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Not really the point I was trying to make, but at least you end up with the right conclusion and your reasoning makes sense. The reason Syllo is town is because:
1. If he had been scum with Sandro, he could simply have withheld his scumread on Sandro and laughed their way to the bank on D1.
2. He put together a successful party. We have seen that party with Keirathi and a 3P fails. It seems impossible that Syllo is scum based on the D1 party.
3. He blew risk.nuke's mason chat wide open. If this was a scumplan, it was retarded.
4. He claimed watcher seeing SnB visit someone he shouldn't. Killing yet another scum.
With all of this pretty much confirming Syllo as town, his damage claim sounds truthful. NOT the other way round. If you want, I can do this for all the people I marked as green in my list. Could save you about 350 pages of filters before you are forced to conclude that you, in fact, are the final scum.
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On December 11 2012 05:17 Acrofales wrote:
Not really the point I was trying to make, but at least you end up with the right conclusion and your reasoning makes sense. The reason Syllo is town is because:
1. If he had been scum with Sandro, he could simply have withheld his scumread on Sandro and laughed their way to the bank on D1.
2. He put together a successful party. We have seen that party with Keirathi and a 3P fails. It seems impossible that Syllo is scum based on the D1 party.
3. He blew risk.nuke's mason chat wide open. If this was a scumplan, it was retarded.
4. He claimed watcher seeing SnB visit someone he shouldn't. Killing yet another scum.
With all of this pretty much confirming Syllo as town, his damage claim sounds truthful. NOT the other way round. If you want, I can do this for all the people I marked as green in my list. Could save you about 350 pages of filters before you are forced to conclude that you, in fact, are the final scum.
Blowing up the scum team is one thing that I'm looking for at this point, as dumb as it sounds. If nobody is obvious, or even remotely obvious, then someone has to be hidden. Stuff like harping on Sandro early and backing himself up with risk/SnB late is the kind of thing that fits what I'm looking for.
But I don't like the damage and some of the other aspects for syllo in particular.
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Chronicler's got parity checks that he couldn't know if he were fakeclaiming. Oats is being silly, but shouldn't be risking sticking his neck out this late in the game if scum's plan was to get him here. Possibility of using 2 actions would be a nice person to keep alive, but he's not playing as if he's the shining hope for scumteam. Keirathi....hmmmm
Keirathi
Claims low success modifier (avoid being put in parties, avoid town seeing keirathi-parties fail)
Maintained had to be in party to get powers (could account for some missing night actions if lying)
Very concerned about parity checks
If I just skim through filter, this post is...tiny and forgotten, but neat:On December 01 2012 09:08 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2012 09:04 Clarity_nl wrote:
Further information redacted from Toad's role pm is interesting It was probably the QT link and team members.
We still don't know what was missing from Toad's role PM. I heart me some speculation too, but...if you're looking for cracks in someone who seems townie, this is one of those times where it's possible someone has more information than they should.
Keirathi comes out looking like the most likely candidate to me. Except that he WAS IN two parties and they succeeded. We don't know exactly how modifiers work, but people still took him and still succeeded. And this post feels genuinely frustrated:On November 30 2012 11:58 Keirathi wrote:
Anddddd...That's why my role sucks and is boring. Literally every single person in the game thinks that I am town (or at least, no one has expressed otherwise), yet people still don't want to include me in parties.
My abilities rely on my being in them. Otherwise, I'm just a VT. Hell, not even a VT; WORSE than a VT because people don't want to include me to parties even though they believe that I am town.
Keirathi has the most little niggling questions, but ... reads as town. Actively trying to figure out what's going on, make reads, lightly push his own reads, townKeirathi-esque. And he's got the right read on me, so there's that.
So...I don't like any of the people that weren't even in consideration yesterday for the gig. Which leaves me back at the people who have KP and some unexplained nights, and one of them being the guy? I guess I'll take another peek at them.
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Correction: not both parties succeeded. Just the one, was focused on him getting magical ability points from both.
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Hmmrmm, I see I forgot about Keirathi on my list. I will have to go over his filter again. I had him down as town for a number of things:
1. He was on a successful party
2. The whole "low success modifier" was too weird for a fakeclaim when the OP explicitly states that the success modifier was hidden. His reaction at me made sense.
3. He claims he gets abilities from successful parties he's on. By being on the party he was able to jail syllo. Syllo claimed roleblocked and nobody counterclaimed. Other nights he claimed no abilities.
Number 3 means that either scum has a roleblocker who only roleblocked once (all other blocks are claimed), or roleblocked people like CJ. There also seems to be less KP on N2 than on N1 or N3, making it likely that scum targeted Syllo while he was jailed.
The rest of my town read on Keirathi was based on him not playing like scum.
Also, Tata makes absolutely perfect sense for Keirathi's earlier claims. It is a hilarious troll role by Greymist.
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On December 11 2012 05:41 Acrofales wrote:
Hmmrmm, I see I forgot about Keirathi on my list. I will have to go over his filter again. I had him down as town for a number of things:
1. He was on a successful party
2. The whole "low success modifier" was too weird for a fakeclaim when the OP explicitly states that the success modifier was hidden. His reaction at me made sense.
3. He claims he gets abilities from successful parties he's on. By being on the party he was able to jail syllo. Syllo claimed roleblocked and nobody counterclaimed. Other nights he claimed no abilities.
Number 3 means that either scum has a roleblocker who only roleblocked once (all other blocks are claimed), or roleblocked people like CJ. There also seems to be less KP on N2 than on N1 or N3, making it likely that scum targeted Syllo while he was jailed.
The rest of my town read on Keirathi was based on him not playing like scum.
Also, Tata makes absolutely perfect sense for Keirathi's earlier claims. It is a hilarious troll role by Greymist.
I don't get abilities from successful parties (see the day 4? 5? party that failed, I still got my 1 point and used it to track Hapa).
FWIW, the reason I apparently have a low success modifier is because I'm a child so I don't bring as much to the party.
On December 11 2012 05:29 austinmcc wrote:Keirathi Claims low success modifier (avoid being put in parties, avoid town seeing keirathi-parties fail) Maintained had to be in party to get powers (could account for some missing night actions if lying) Very concerned about parity checks If I just skim through filter, this post is...tiny and forgotten, but neat: Show nested quote +On December 01 2012 09:08 Keirathi wrote:On December 01 2012 09:04 Clarity_nl wrote:
Further information redacted from Toad's role pm is interesting It was probably the QT link and team members. We still don't know what was missing from Toad's role PM. I heart me some speculation too, but...if you're looking for cracks in someone who seems townie, this is one of those times where it's possible someone has more information than they should. Keirathi comes out looking like the most likely candidate to me. Except that he WAS IN two parties and they succeeded. We don't know exactly how modifiers work, but people still took him and still succeeded. And this post feels genuinely frustrated: Show nested quote +On November 30 2012 11:58 Keirathi wrote:
Anddddd...That's why my role sucks and is boring. Literally every single person in the game thinks that I am town (or at least, no one has expressed otherwise), yet people still don't want to include me in parties.
My abilities rely on my being in them. Otherwise, I'm just a VT. Hell, not even a VT; WORSE than a VT because people don't want to include me to parties even though they believe that I am town. Keirathi has the most little niggling questions, but ... reads as town. Actively trying to figure out what's going on, make reads, lightly push his own reads, townKeirathi-esque. And he's got the right read on me, so there's that.
About the Toad thing: Meh, it was just common sense. In every game I've ever seen where the host puts [redacted] in a scum role PM, in the post game the redacted parts were teammates+QT link.
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On December 11 2012 05:41 Acrofales wrote:
Hmmrmm, I see I forgot about Keirathi on my list. I will have to go over his filter again. I had him down as town for a number of things:
1. He was on a successful party
2. The whole "low success modifier" was too weird for a fakeclaim when the OP explicitly states that the success modifier was hidden. His reaction at me made sense.
3. He claims he gets abilities from successful parties he's on. By being on the party he was able to jail syllo. Syllo claimed roleblocked and nobody counterclaimed. Other nights he claimed no abilities.
Number 3 means that either scum has a roleblocker who only roleblocked once (all other blocks are claimed), or roleblocked people like CJ. There also seems to be less KP on N2 than on N1 or N3, making it likely that scum targeted Syllo while he was jailed.
The rest of my town read on Keirathi was based on him not playing like scum.
Also, Tata makes absolutely perfect sense for Keirathi's earlier claims. It is a hilarious troll role by Greymist.
He was on one successful party and one unsuccessful.
The low success modifier WAS a weird fakeclaim. We haven't seen other scum pms talking about success modifiers, so it's not even like scum would all know what theirs was. It's...a neat idea, but feels like a weird thing to fake, I agree.
Number 3 is definitely possible. The scum version is that he's the guy who can RB, might actually be a scum JOAT and just didn't use that on other nights. One quality that the remaining scum member has to have is the ability to account for a variety of inconsistencies - there are all sorts of bits and pieces that STILL don't fit, afaik, even with things like "Oh yeah guys, I'm town and didn't tell you I could take 2 actions until just now? Oops." Something like a JOAT could fill in holes, but again...I agree that Keirathi has been playing like town, and like town-Keirathi specifically.
He fits the bill for some reasons, but his play doesn't. With night actions though, he's right up there with Adam for "Nope, officer, I ain't done nothing on no nights. Wasn't me." As long as he CAN rb/jail someone, he could have done so for syllo. His only other claimed night action is a duplicate track, easy to fake.
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Don't forget to send your night actions in to both me and GreYMisT they are due in 1h 45 min
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EPT
