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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 09 2012 03:07 Clarity_nl wrote: Could you explain why it was a bad case? :p @ Clarity I don't know, confirmation bias  ?On a serious note, you did not show how his actions were mafia motivated. Some part of your case were also twisting his posts to serve your purpose. And the formatting did not help to get your main points against him. But mostly confirmation bias... | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
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Djodref
France3332 Posts
On November 09 2012 03:05 debears wrote: Well game over Gg guys I'm late to the party gg debears ! All the glory for long filters belongs to me ! I think I should have jailed you but I was really afraid to get NKed myself (especially with how much I was talking about the blues during N1) so I chose to take the risk not to protect and try to target the mafia instead. So I went after Alsn, him being an obvious scumbuddy for Clarity. By the way, I found both sylvefyre and Clarity before you But I admit that your cases were better, especially sylver one... | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
On November 09 2012 03:25 Djodref wrote: @ Clarity I don't know, confirmation bias ?On a serious note, you did not show how his actions were mafia motivated. Some part of your case were also twisting his posts to serve your purpose. And the formatting did not help to get your main points against him. But mostly confirmation bias... Well, obviously. :D I figured that playing the "newbie card" is obviously scum motivated. It actually is anti-town. On the other hand every time Obzy posted he was correct in his analysis and forthcoming with ideas, that's the part I didn't mention. I did twist some posts, yes. I didn't really have much of a choice, he was my best candidate to try and lynch. Second was probably da0ud. | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
However, I think at the time your situation just seemed a bit too desperate for us to put any real effort into questioning Obzy's motives. The case itself wasn't bad, it just wasn't particularly good at directing attention elsewhere due to the circumstances. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Good lord I received in excess of 100 coaching PM's this game. They weren't even "omg I'm lost" PM's either - very thoughtful analysis from all the players who I was in contact with. I don't think this game needs a super long writeup since it was fairly straightforward. Here are some of my initial thoughts: 1) Active town = awesome town. Mafia played a really solid game, but it was impossible for them to hide due to the insane activity of the thread. Sylver's 5 page filter after 2 days would be more than enough activity to make him look town in 95% of games. This was the 5%. (@ Sylver - Stick around! This was a really unusually active game and mafia won't consume as much of your life normally =P) In terms of advice to the Mafia, I would consider getting more aggressive early on. Part of the reason clarity came under suspicion is that he wasn't engaged in town affairs early on. Getting "emotional" and building some cases early (Clarity's case on Obzy was solid, but it came too late) will show townie "effort" more. 2) The Cheesecake lynch was a classic example of a last-minute emotional lynch gone wrong. People were treating his VT claim as a major scum-slip, which it really wasn't. Wanting to not be suspicious isn't necessarily a scum tell. I agree it was suspicious, but people really forgot to consider alternative (townie) explanations when casting their votes here. In general, be very hesitant of last-minute voteswings - they are rarely rational and mafia can influence the vote very easily if townies don't take the time to think. 3) My favorite post of the game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=379514¤tpage=29#569 On November 04 2012 13:42 Djodref wrote: Clarity Have you guys noticed Clarity ? ... I absolutely love this post because it demonstrates a very good thought-process. Scum have a natural instinct to not get noticed. If you find yourself not noticing a player and they haven't given you any reason to think that they're town, there's a good chance that they're mafia. Regardless of whether Djo was correct or not here, this is a great way to play Day 1 - if you don't have a town read on someone and they aren't being considered, go after them. A significant amount of scum players fall into this category, and it's something you should always be aware of in your future games. | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
To be fair though, even as town, if someone like djo pushes me that hard odds are I'll just go into passive mode and wait until I look like town. I felt I got close this game. When I posted the case on obzy was the first time I wasn't being pressured, so I felt I stayed consistent with what (in my eyes) a townie would do. I don't know how to go: You're totally wrong! Here is my case on someone else! It just seems like I'm deflecting. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
Why would you want to claim that what you have to say doesn't matter a lot? If you're town you want to convince others that you are right. Again, as I said though, Obzy actually did make good points and analyzed very well, but I was trying to de-emphasize that in my case.... because I was scum. | ||
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
On November 09 2012 03:44 Clarity_nl wrote: As I wrote in my case, Ver's analysis of XXX begs to differ. Misder (in Ver's eyes) was a great lynch candidate because he apologized a lot and played the newbie card. Why would you want to claim that what you have to say doesn't matter a lot? If you're town you want to convince others that you are right. Again, as I said though, Obzy actually did make good points and analyzed very well, but I was trying to de-emphasize that in my case.... because I was scum. Yeah that's fair. There's a difference between using it as an excuse to do nothing and just to point it out while trying to contribute like Obzy did. Edit: What I'm saying is, as town there's no reason to censor yourself. If you're trying to contribute while having a hard time figuring stuff out because you're newb, there's no fault in saying that imo. As for the post itself it was pretty null to me. | ||
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
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Sonic Death Monkey
Sweden991 Posts
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 09 2012 03:44 Clarity_nl wrote: As I wrote in my case, Ver's analysis of XXX begs to differ. Misder (in Ver's eyes) was a great lynch candidate because he apologized a lot and played the newbie card. Why would you want to claim that what you have to say doesn't matter a lot? If you're town you want to convince others that you are right. Again, as I said though, Obzy actually did make good points and analyzed very well, but I was trying to de-emphasize that in my case.... because I was scum. I think the guide represents that tell rather poorly - Misder wasn't scummy in that game because he played the newbie card. Rather he used the newbie card to appear helpless, blend in, and avoid actual analysis. There's no such thing as a 100% tell in mafia - you have to take context and motive into account when making a read. Though you were scum so bleh =P @ SDM On November 09 2012 01:40 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: And Hapa, Rad voted on a town read once (Debears) and said he'd be willing lynch his town read Clarity for information. The scum tell you were talking about in XXVII seems to fail me every time :p Yeah, Rad didn't say Debears was town at the time he voted for him, but he seemed like scum getting his story mixed up. I thought Alsn's questioning of Rad was him being on the right track, but I was wrong. Rad did some townie stuff as well, but I disagree he established himself as town. N1+ he was the only townie not being clear townie imo. Yeah the more I play, the less I believe in that tell. Townies are definitely capable of ideas like that, and again it's a question of analyzing motive. I still think it's something you should look out for (after all wanting to lynch someone you believe is townie is pretty questionable mentality), but it's definitely necessary to look into context and other factors. | ||
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Alsn
Sweden995 Posts
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
On November 09 2012 03:59 Hapahauli wrote: @ Clarity I think the guide represents that tell rather poorly - Misder wasn't scummy in that game because he played the newbie card. Rather he used the newbie card to appear helpless, blend in, and avoid actual analysis. There's no such thing as a 100% tell in mafia - you have to take context and motive into account when making a read. Though you were scum so bleh =P @ SDM Yeah the more I play, the less I believe in that tell. Townies are definitely capable of ideas like that, and again it's a question of analyzing motive. I still think it's something you should look out for (after all wanting to lynch someone you believe is townie is pretty questionable mentality), but it's definitely necessary to look into context and other factors. I think this second point is really important. Actions can often be described with either a scum motivation or a town one and it is the greatest challenge of the VT to figure out the motivation for those actions. Aditionally I think one of the things I have a hard time remembering as a townie is that not every player has played as much mafia or read as many games or as many guides as others, whil eyou the player are not here to make up for other players' ignorence or poor decision making you do have to be able to realize the reasons for anti-town actions. Sometimes those reasons are a scum mind set and mentality and other times they are simply a different way of playing the game. | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 09 2012 04:04 Alsn wrote: Anyone have any tips for just how I'm supposed to filter all my reads? I tend to always wind up at "null"(not really the right word, undecided is more like it) or slight reads in either direction because I seem to sum up all of a players actions and then conclude "well, both scummy and townie at times! I obviously can't be too confident about either direction!". alsn, you're strength is late game analysis by far. What I would recommend is being more aggressive d1 (of course you were a cop so its understandable this game). Get the answers you want. That's how I best get my reads. Also, you need to remove posts that indicative scum or town equally (or pretty close to equal). Also, when you combine posts, look at if one post strengthens the scumminess of the other) For example, with syler. In his first post he praised town for activity, then later on accuses me and djo of "posting too much". Alone, you could say a townie could say that. But together, they don't make any sense. | ||
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debears
United States2516 Posts
I feel there were a few mistakes this game in terms of how people appraoch reads 1) Fluff - A few guys kept screaming "fluff!" at my filter, yet failed to realize the content that was in there. Even if there a bit of fluff in a filter, a townie can just scroll through it to look at the long posts. Remember, look for content first. If there is no content, then look at the amount of fluff 2) Bullying - I feel that guys like (Rad and Clarity I believe) cited bullying as a scum tell. First, don't take someone using strong wording (unless its like "you absolutely suck and should quit playing mafia") as scummy. Look at their reasoning for using that wording. Also, if it's true, then how is it bullying? Don't get too emotional when playing mafia 3) Outing Blues - The problem with this is that, most of the time, mafia will hide among the semi-lurkers, where blues hide. Also, don't rely too heavily on blues. We didn't win this game because of blues. We won it because everyone that was townie looked townie (or townier than the scum). Outing mafia, out of the cost of outing a blue or two, isn't necessarily a bad thing. There are usually a similar amount of mafia and blues. There are usually around 3 townies to 1 mafia. If you can out one mafia per blue, you usually win the game. | ||
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Rad
United States935 Posts
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Clarity_nl
Netherlands6826 Posts
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