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On October 31 2012 10:14 debears wrote:@Alsn
How do you go from this? Show nested quote +On October 31 2012 08:59 Alsn wrote:
All right, I wanted to make this post in the case that I die. These are the reads that I haven't really made public as of yet for varying reasons.
Debears is very probably town, if he isn't then I don't know what to say.
Rad is definitely town, or at the very least you should treat him as such. If he's SK the game is over for town but if he's vigi it's definitely winnable.
Dandel is probably town, but I still can't discount the possibility that he's scum role blocker. His claim doesn't rule it out(like Rad's does) but his actions during D2/N2 at least suggests to me that he's either town or a damned good actor when under pressure(the lynch chaos seemed genuinely town to me).
Nackh I consider to be really scummy. His cases seem "fake" somehow, they don't suggest to me like he's really trying to really find scum. I keep getting the feeling that he doesn't actually care about winning. However, if I suppose that he's scum, it would mean that he just believes trolling the fuck out of the thread will make us feel scared about voting him(because we might think he's too big of a risk to lynch).
Cheese... I just don't know, he's my top scum read among "the actives" based on his actions, but my problem is that I think Nackh is really scummy, so Cheese being accused by him means that either he's bussing him or Cheese is innocent. I can at least see a world where Cheese could be innocent.
I find Nackh's general behaviour to be anti-town however. So suppose he really has played those 10 games of mafia he claims to have played. Then he probably knows that bussing is way more effective for gaining townie points if you're the cause of a scum lynch(first one to accuse) as opposed to waiting until there's a wagon already formed.
Among these players and with how things stand right now, I'd suggest lynching Nackh. He's simply not playing very pro-town and that's the biggest scum tell I have right now. Also, unless that's also just him completely trolling, for some reason he seems set on the idea that both Roco and Inig are town with no chance of them being scum. I have no idea why he would think that unless he already knew that they were town.
That leaves Roco and Inig. Sigh, I really wish we hadn't thought Roco was gonna get modkilled. Getting rid of him over Djod or even da0ud would've been a much better position. That being said, I'd hold off on lynching Inig for at the very least tomorrow. I find the possibility of him being town not entirely unlikely and in the case that he is, there's still hope for him. I think you have to assume that Roco is scum. Because even if he isn't I just don't see how you could get him to vote with you when he won't even talk.
In conclusion, Lynch Roco and hope to god that he's scum, then probably Nackh, and then hopefully you have the last scum figured out and Rad doesn't actually turn out to be SK. If you don't want to hope that Roco is scum, or if in fact he actually shows up and contributes in a meaningful way, then I'd go with Nackh first. so quickly to this? Show nested quote +On October 31 2012 09:05 Alsn wrote:
Ok, screw my last minute post, Dandel is probably scum, post coming up. and this Show nested quote +On October 31 2012 09:25 Alsn wrote:First, I think we can all agree that before this night flip, we knew two things. That Rad was either SK or Vigi and also that Dandel was either scum or town roleblocker. We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill. Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer). Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best. So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum: - Unlikelihood of there being 4 blues, as well as the very real possibility that there is a scum roleblocker.
- The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town.
- The likelihood of there actually being a scum roleblocker.
- Wanting to set up kush for the D2 lynch.
- OMGUS case against Inig D1.
This is very alarming. Within 25 minutes, you go from Dandel as town to having a thought out post with the opposite conclusion This shows that your sudden flip on Dandel was premeditated. That means you knew what was going to happen and were preparing for it. Some more thoughts coming up after this. I'm back.
My pre-day post was in the case that I died, my thoughts at the time were that if scum had really killed me for some reason, Dandel was probably town and they wanted to leave his ambiguous claim an open question for town. I had gotten so convinced from making that pre-day post that scum would not kill Rad that the fact that they did shocked me greatly.
As to your point that I couldn't think that argument up from nothing in 25 minutes, you're absolutely right. I don't know how that makes me scummy though as if I had shared every theory I have, this thread would be cluttered as fuck. I had been thinking about the possibility of Rad dying and what it meant for my opinion of Dandel for several hours before hand. So yes, the post was somewhat premeditated, except for the fact that near the end I concluded that I'd save it for the next night if the game lasted that long. Reasons being that I didn't want to let scum know my line of thinking unless it actually happened(if it never happened it would be good for me that they didn't know I suspected that Dandel was close to confirmed town).
So there, I see that you guys have managed to produce pretty much nothing during the 13 hours that I've been away. I'm anxiously awaiting something some time soon. Dandel, I can accept that it's your mothers birthday, but I really expect you to either do your absolute utmost tomorrow to find some lynchable scum or I can't see how I can't lynch you. Or at the very least, if you're really town, I hope someone can actually make an argument that makes sense to me why we should lynch someone else.
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Oh and just so you know debears, I'll be here all day if you wanted to ask me questions.
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Realised I forgot in my initial case.
##Vote Dandel Ion
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Also, I'd like to state that I have some thoughts I'd like to share in case things go a certain way today, I'll probably be making them public around the time I go sleep(halfway through the voting day). Just giving you a heads up so you don't go all ballistic on me for actually thinking about stuff well before I post them.
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On October 31 2012 22:40 Alsn wrote:
I had gotten so convinced from making that pre-day post that scum would not kill Rad that the fact that they did shocked me greatly
I don't believe this. You probably were the one to suggest killing Rad
"[*]The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town."
Scum kills Rad, then scum talks about how scum wouldn't kill Rad starting a setup discussion that i feel obligated to debate to show that I understand it and not loose credibility.
I don't understand however why you said that scum wouldn't want to kill the SK. Also Rad could've had an extra bullet or two, role description doesn't specify how many.
And on the roleblocking thing: it would make sense for scum to roleblock the kill, to conceal the presence of the roleblocker and kill an SK instantly (if that works like that here) block+shot kills SK right?. If scum blocked Dan tonight they didn't block+shot Rad. Now, either they took the risk and trusted the claim OR .. Dandel is scum roleblocker. They roleblock+shot kushmaster D1 .. hence everything makes sense.
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I'm going to go through Dandel's posts to see if he qualifies for the spot of Scum #3
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Correct, roleblocking a Serial Killer removes his one-shot bulletproof protection for that night (should he choose that option).
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Wait, what? You can block SK immunity? O_o
Wow, I had no idea. I thought that was just an innate thing that you couldn't do anything about. Is that actually the norm in mafia? From the OP I had thought that a serial killer chose his "power" on day 1 and then it was just there no matter what. Going to take another look at the OP.
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Oh YEAH BABY. Brace yourselves .. Juicy SK debate posts coming up:
On October 23 2012 18:42 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2012 12:33 debears wrote:On October 23 2012 10:37 DarthPunk wrote:
Please please please make a Djo, Debears, Alsn scum team Nah that'd be wayyyy to ez. Anyways. I'm the logical choice for SK, with this being my last newbie. Thrawn would definitely pass on the torch of last newbie game as SK since it's the most fun :D It's my last newbie too. Tho, I don't really want to be SK, so go on ahead.
On October 25 2012 23:09 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On October 25 2012 23:04 debears wrote:
@djo
But why did you use the wording "I expect you to do your job as town". That statement implies that you know he is town. Theres no wishy washness or "if your town". That's why its very weird
And daud (sry I'm calling you that now). Using logic involving a sk at this point is not good logic.
1) a seri killer wouldnt know if you are town while mafia would.
2) we don't have any idea whether there is a sk. Its best to not worry about it unless there are a pair of nks on any night He's saying a scum Djo couldn't know daoud is town since there is the possibility of a SK. Not that Djo is SK. Not that I particularily agree with that reasoning, the chances there is a SK is relatively small afaik.
On October 28 2012 09:28 Dandel Ion wrote:Okay, let's be logical about this. That's two kills. Scum can kill 1. Ergo, there's either a Vig with no bullets left, or a SK. I would suggest if you're a Vig, then claim. If it's a SK, we'll probably find out next night I suppose. Useless fluff: + Show Spoiler +How the hell was Kush town wtf
On October 28 2012 20:03 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On October 28 2012 10:17 Djodref wrote:On October 28 2012 09:41 Dandel Ion wrote:
Djodref, why are you being so certain that mafia is responsible for the kill on Sylver?
Is there something you want to tell us? @ dandelPlease show me in my post where I'm "so certain". I'm using conditional verbal forms... >.> Show nested quote +On October 28 2012 09:29 Djodref wrote:I think sylver has been killed for this post On October 25 2012 13:44 sylverfyre wrote:
I feel like asking everyone a loaded question, but one that makes sense for a newbie game:
If you're not completely new to mafia (maybe you've played a few games IRL/elsewhere, or this isn't your first game on TL)
What's your favorite role to play in mafia?
I feel like I'm one of few who actively enjoys being a vanilla townie more than scum or a power-townie. It feels that much better when you're part of a victory! Maybe I'm wrong in this being an uncommon choice of favorite role, though. I would say mafia was trying to snipe a blue and managed to do it. Regarding Kush death, I would say vig or SK. Both makes sense. But jailkeeper + vig + detective seems imba so I think we have a SK. Show nested quote +On October 28 2012 09:31 Djodref wrote:
By the way, if mafia is blue sniping, I would think that they have nobody on their ass right now. Your posts heavily imply that mafia is bluesniping Sylver, and you don't even aknowledge the possibility that Kush was the scum KP. Cheesecake's point about how fast you found a good reason to kill Sylver is also pretty good in my opinion. I mean, I checked his filter again, too, but I didn't even really think about that. To me, it sounds plausible that you've thought about it beforehand. I just want you to admit shooting either of them. You could still be scum, but the read I'm getting from you really strongly is SK. Now, my sample size is not the biggest, but I played a single game with a SK. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=367548 (doesn't say in the OP, but it's thrawn) And your play feels SO MUCH like thrawn's that game, it's not even funny. Since there's been no Vig claim, I'll have to assume a SK in the game now. Because it doesn't really make sense to NOT claim vig, he'd have no shots left, and would be, for all intents and purposes, be confirmed town. Which is something I'd like very much, at this point. Reasons to not claim Vig: If you're actually the SK and you'd incriminate yourself when there comes another night with 2 NKs. That's it. Conclusion: Djo is either SK, or scum. Both are reasons to lynch him, to me. ##Vote DjodrefThat said, does anybody even care about this game anymore?...
Dat SK fishing BOOYAA!
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From the op:
If a serial killer is present he/she will be able to choose between investigation immunity and one shot bulletproof when the roles go out and before day 1 starts. If no choice is sent in then I will flip a coin and choose for the player.
Does that mean that the SK immunity is something they need to activate and that they can only activate it once and then it's gone even if it doesn't save him?
Because in that case, that blows a pretty big hole in my idea that it was unlikely that scum would target Rad. However, if that's indeed the case, Dandel claiming roleblock tonight makes him seem really suspicious. Although I have no idea how I should interpret Nackh figuring this out, either he has an idea about it from the scum QT and he's using it to frame Dandel, or he's genuinely experienced this type of rule before.
I sure as hell don't expect newbies on this forum to know about that type of rule, so I'm unsure of what it all means. On one hand, if scum really did roleblock Rad and killed him, it would mean Dandel was lying about being roleblocked and trying to roleblock Inig. However, if Dandel is lying, then that means that there are either two scum roleblockers, or that scum didn't actually roleblock Rad.
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Nackh, did you seriously find all those quotes and think through what they meant in 7 minutes? I know I'm doing a debears™ on your here, but come on.
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EBWOP: Nine minutes, was looking at the wrong posts.
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On October 31 2012 23:50 Alsn wrote:From the op: Show nested quote +
If a serial killer is present he/she will be able to choose between investigation immunity and one shot bulletproof when the roles go out and before day 1 starts. If no choice is sent in then I will flip a coin and choose for the player.
Does that mean that the SK immunity is something they need to activate and that they can only activate it once and then it's gone even if it doesn't save him?Because in that case, that blows a pretty big hole in my idea that it was unlikely that scum would target Rad. However, if that's indeed the case, Dandel claiming roleblock tonight makes him seem really suspicious. Although I have no idea how I should interpret Nackh figuring this out, either he has an idea about it from the scum QT and he's using it to frame Dandel, or he's genuinely experienced this type of rule before. I sure as hell don't expect newbies on this forum to know about that type of rule, so I'm unsure of what it all means. On one hand, if scum really did roleblock Rad and killed him, it would mean Dandel was lying about being roleblocked and trying to roleblock Inig. However, if Dandel is lying, then that means that there are either two scum roleblockers, or that scum didn't actually roleblock Rad.
No, it means he got permanent 1 life + unless he's lynched, or roleblockshot
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On October 31 2012 23:52 Alsn wrote:
Nackh, did you seriously find all those quotes and think through what they meant in 7 minutes? I know I'm doing a debears™ on your here, but come on.
Please .. this is child's play. You noobs are only wasting my time. No but seriously, I'm awesome.
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Wait, I just realised that Dandel could still be town and there be two scum roleblockers... Seriously, this game is fucking stupid. 
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[QUOTE]On October 31 2012 23:53 nackhtjogger wrote:
[QUOTE]On October 31 2012 23:50 Alsn wrote:
From the op:
[quote]
If a serial killer is present he/she will be able to choose between investigation immunity and one shot bulletproof when the roles go out and before day 1 starts. If no choice is sent in then I will flip a coin and choose for the player.[/quote]
Does that mean that the SK immunity is something they need to activate and that they can only activate it once and then it's gone even if it doesn't save him?
No, it means he got permanent 1 life + unless he's lynched, or roleblockshot[/QUOTE]That's what I thought, except I had no idea about the roleblock thing. But the wording in the OP does suggest some ambiguity as to how it really works, so I wouldn't be surprised if scum asked the hosts for clarification.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
nackh is correct. Effectively like Veteran but roleblockable.
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On October 31 2012 23:53 nackhtjogger wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2012 23:50 Alsn wrote:From the op:
If a serial killer is present he/she will be able to choose between investigation immunity and one shot bulletproof when the roles go out and before day 1 starts. If no choice is sent in then I will flip a coin and choose for the player.
Does that mean that the SK immunity is something they need to activate and that they can only activate it once and then it's gone even if it doesn't save him? No, it means he got permanent 1 life + unless he's lynched, or roleblockshot That's what I thought, except I had no idea about the roleblock thing. But the wording in the OP does suggest some ambiguity as to how it really works, so I wouldn't be surprised if scum asked the hosts for clarification.
Fixed sorry.
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I see, alright then. I need to think about what that means for my theories with regards to Dandel.
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EPT
