Newbie Mini Mafia XXIX - Page 77

On October 31 2012 08:59 Alsn wrote:
All right, I wanted to make this post in the case that I die. These are the reads that I haven't really made public as of yet for varying reasons.

Debears is very probably town, if he isn't then I don't know what to say.
Rad is definitely town, or at the very least you should treat him as such. If he's SK the game is over for town but if he's vigi it's definitely winnable.
Dandel is probably town, but I still can't discount the possibility that he's scum role blocker. His claim doesn't rule it out(like Rad's does) but his actions during D2/N2 at least suggests to me that he's either town or a damned good actor when under pressure(the lynch chaos seemed genuinely town to me).

Nackh I consider to be really scummy. His cases seem "fake" somehow, they don't suggest to me like he's really trying to really find scum. I keep getting the feeling that he doesn't actually care about winning. However, if I suppose that he's scum, it would mean that he just believes trolling the fuck out of the thread will make us feel scared about voting him(because we might think he's too big of a risk to lynch).
Cheese... I just don't know, he's my top scum read among "the actives" based on his actions, but my problem is that I think Nackh is really scummy, so Cheese being accused by him means that either he's bussing him or Cheese is innocent. I can at least see a world where Cheese could be innocent.

I find Nackh's general behaviour to be anti-town however. So suppose he really has played those 10 games of mafia he claims to have played. Then he probably knows that bussing is way more effective for gaining townie points if you're the cause of a scum lynch(first one to accuse) as opposed to waiting until there's a wagon already formed.

Among these players and with how things stand right now, I'd suggest lynching Nackh. He's simply not playing very pro-town and that's the biggest scum tell I have right now. Also, unless that's also just him completely trolling, for some reason he seems set on the idea that both Roco and Inig are town with no chance of them being scum. I have no idea why he would think that unless he already knew that they were town.

That leaves Roco and Inig. Sigh, I really wish we hadn't thought Roco was gonna get modkilled. Getting rid of him over Djod or even da0ud would've been a much better position. That being said, I'd hold off on lynching Inig for at the very least tomorrow. I find the possibility of him being town not entirely unlikely and in the case that he is, there's still hope for him. I think you have to assume that Roco is scum. Because even if he isn't I just don't see how you could get him to vote with you when he won't even talk.

In conclusion, Lynch Roco and hope to god that he's scum, then probably Nackh, and then hopefully you have the last scum figured out and Rad doesn't actually turn out to be SK. If you don't want to hope that Roco is scum, or if in fact he actually shows up and contributes in a meaningful way, then I'd go with Nackh first.

On October 31 2012 09:05 Alsn wrote:
Ok, screw my last minute post, Dandel is probably scum, post coming up.

On October 31 2012 09:25 Alsn wrote:
First, I think we can all agree that before this night flip, we knew two things. That Rad was either SK or Vigi and also that Dandel was either scum or town roleblocker.

We know that scum couldn't know for sure if Rad was vigi or SK. However, if they suspected that he was SK they must have counted on him having a vest making him immune to one kill.

Interestingly however, Dandel being scum or not would likely affect their decision greatly. Since if Dandel was town, they must have suspected that Rad was SK and thus night immune(since 4 blues seems like quite a stretch). On the other hand, if Dandel is scum, scum could definitely conclude that the possibility of Rad being vigi is much more likely(with only 2 blues it seems like the game would be very stacked against town if there's also a serial killer).

Additionally, there's the fact that claiming town roleblocker is actually really easy to do if you are scum roleblocker. By the time Dandel claimed, he would have known from his scum buddies that none of them were role blocked. Neither had anyone else claimed roleblock so he knew the possibility of a town roleblocker was very unlikely(since town would definitely claim if they got roleblocked). Him bread crumbing that he would roleblock kush is a null tell at best.

So, in conclusion, why I think Dandel is scum:

• Unlikelihood of there being 4 blues, as well as the very real possibility that there is a scum roleblocker.
  
• The fact that scum probably wouldn't risk shooting an SK, something they must have suspected if Dandel was town.
  
• The likelihood of there actually being a scum roleblocker.
  
• Wanting to set up kush for the D2 lynch.
  
• OMGUS case against Inig D1.
  

If anything, your quick going back on your own prior "reads" suggests you knew you were not going to die. Cause if you actually thought you might, you would've included this line of thinking in the first place, instead of keeping it to push for the next best lynch 10 minutes later.

On October 31 2012 10:18 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
@Debears

Maybe the Rad flip really did catch him off guard? I agree that his opinion switching is a tad odd, but maybe the flip just hit the switch for him and suddenly everything was clear?