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@WeeTee the only reason people are FOSing you is because you are a bad poster like me. Your posts are bad and you shouldn't even try to deny that.
To other people in the thread let me just say that being a bad poster doens't make you mafia. Nothing about WeeTee screams mafia to me. He is just acting kind of like a defensive ass.
The only person who I believe has truly shown signs of being mafia is shady. On more than 1 occasion he has said "well i want to lynch this person but if you lynch this dude thats cool too." He basically wants to lynch everyone suspicious. Also I do not think people are really paying enough attention to the fact that he instavoted me after i roleclaimed. That makes ZERO sense for a townsperson because, as Alsn stated, my roleclaim can be CONFIRMED soon.
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Hey thrawn & all,
I really want to make an effort to improve my posts to a higher level, I certainly don't want to fall into this path that I am heading down.
I don't believe my actions display any anti town behaviors other than my incompetence, and I also think that in someways if I were scum that I would be more obviously bad in that negative direction.
This I will en devour to improve.
The reason I had a read on thrawn being scum is that he didn't put a FoS on anybody during the D1 period(except for agree with other FoS's), and I was willing to begin a case on that. However after thrawn voted for me out of the blue I was concerned that he was using his credibility to vote for me when he could have potentially pinned anyone he wanted. Why me? Why risk his town credibility for a result that he cannot be sure about and a result I can assure should get you suspected if i'm lynched. And it really was a risk I mean a VOTE is more powerful than a FoS in my opinion.
@shady
On August 25 2012 13:19 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2012 13:16 WeeTee wrote:
Alrighty.
I am always busy and think the content you guys put up is (sometimes)utter crapola.
Im glad that iv been called out so that I can comment.
I have no reads on anyone at the moment and am happy for any outcome of the first day to happen.
I have trouble articulating what I want to say so I might be brash enough to put my #FoS on thrawn,
because he just never ever places a FoS and is always non committal.
I know I make a target of myself for being clumsy but for me to participate and get better i'm going to have to ignore the criticism I get and just put it out there.
Continuing on with my FoS its clear that thrawn is so active, probably overactive in the sense.
I have a case that chugging the bandwagon against me is a well timed push,
experienced even.
Building a case on me in my absence based on the fact that I am absent is not convincing enough to suspect me,
if it was then a FoS is surely sufficent.
Yet I recieved a vote from thrawn.
Just over the top imo.
I urge you all to read thrawns filter and see how passive his playstyle is.
And then make up your minds. So... you are FoSing Thrawn because he doesn't FoS anyone else and is therefore noncommital? But he just voted you.
My read on thrawn was looking in a different direction to the what the group is discussing, It was an observation that I made and wanted to elaborate for some extra input, much like any of the content so far.
As I mentioned above I was building to the case and just lacked the confidence to make it at this point. I can see my timing was all off. I think it could be worth noting that thrawn certainly did go hard in by voting. To me this is why my case has substance.
Thrawn's Quote:
"You having not posted recently had nothing to do with my case against you, it was entirely about your actions while you were posting. On that note, you still have not answered the question that I've asked you over and over again."
This quote cements that your case about me is based on my quality, and I really hope to improve my posting and ask that I am not target anymore based on this if I improve.
The action of not putting a read on shady for you thrawn is that I can't formulate a good read, I am not sure if I have permission to decline but I can assure you that I will have a look and examine it and post more for a better result.
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On August 25 2012 18:16 WeeTee wrote:Hey thrawn & all, I really want to make an effort to improve my posts to a higher level, I certainly don't want to fall into this path that I am heading down. I don't believe my actions display any anti town behaviors other than my incompetence, and I also think that in someways if I were scum that I would be more obviously bad in that negative direction. This I will en devour to improve. The reason I had a read on thrawn being scum is that he didn't put a FoS on anybody during the D1 period(except for agree with other FoS's), and I was willing to begin a case on that. However after thrawn voted for me out of the blue I was concerned that he was using his credibility to vote for me when he could have potentially pinned anyone he wanted. Why me? Why risk his town credibility for a result that he cannot be sure about and a result I can assure should get you suspected if i'm lynched. And it really was a risk I mean a VOTE is more powerful than a FoS in my opinion. @shady Show nested quote +On August 25 2012 13:19 Shady Sands wrote:On August 25 2012 13:16 WeeTee wrote:
Alrighty.
I am always busy and think the content you guys put up is (sometimes)utter crapola.
Im glad that iv been called out so that I can comment.
I have no reads on anyone at the moment and am happy for any outcome of the first day to happen.
I have trouble articulating what I want to say so I might be brash enough to put my #FoS on thrawn,
because he just never ever places a FoS and is always non committal.
I know I make a target of myself for being clumsy but for me to participate and get better i'm going to have to ignore the criticism I get and just put it out there.
Continuing on with my FoS its clear that thrawn is so active, probably overactive in the sense.
I have a case that chugging the bandwagon against me is a well timed push,
experienced even.
Building a case on me in my absence based on the fact that I am absent is not convincing enough to suspect me,
if it was then a FoS is surely sufficent.
Yet I recieved a vote from thrawn.
Just over the top imo.
I urge you all to read thrawns filter and see how passive his playstyle is.
And then make up your minds. So... you are FoSing Thrawn because he doesn't FoS anyone else and is therefore noncommital? But he just voted you. My read on thrawn was looking in a different direction to the what the group is discussing, It was an observation that I made and wanted to elaborate for some extra input, much like any of the content so far. As I mentioned above I was building to the case and just lacked the confidence to make it at this point. I can see my timing was all off. I think it could be worth noting that thrawn certainly did go hard in by voting. To me this is why my case has substance. Thrawn's Quote: "You having not posted recently had nothing to do with my case against you, it was entirely about your actions while you were posting. On that note, you still have not answered the question that I've asked you over and over again." This quote cements that your case about me is based on my quality, and I really hope to improve my posting and ask that I am not target anymore based on this if I improve. The action of not putting a read on shady for you thrawn is that I can't formulate a good read, I am not sure if I have permission to decline but I can assure you that I will have a look and examine it and post more for a better result.
First of all I want to say that this post is the highest quality of a post that I've seen from you so far, so that is a step in the right direction. However my case against you wasn't based on the quality of your posts. You have a history of avoiding giving reads, and when someone asks you for a read you give reasons why you think they could be town or scum but don't commit to either side. That was the main point of my case... that you give weak null reads and suggest/ask other people to start discussion/ make reads instead of you. Also, the vibe I got from a lot of your posts is that you don't want the town to take your opinions seriously, which is a good indication that you are scum. A good way to establish yourself as town is to be direct and decisive. This doesn't mean you can't change your reads, it just means you shouldn't constantly give wishy-washy null reads without any indication to which side (town/scum) you believe to be most likely. Thanks for saying that you will give a read on shady but you need to make sure and follow through. One thing that sticks out to me is that you never gave me your read on lvdr when I asked for it a few pages ago in relation to your FOS on Asln. I asked you multiple times within a short period and you continued to post without answering me. Over time I became less concerned with what your read on him was and more concerned that you hadn't answered me. In fact, you still have not done so.
I'm sticking with my vote on you because of all the things I said in my case against you I still strongly believe to be true and one post doesn't change that. I also want to make sure you and everyone else know that my case against you isn't about the quality of your posts, it's about the scum-motivations behind those posts and how you constantly ignored my question after I asked it several times while you were posting. Reread my original case and you will see what I mean. Your latest post is a step in the right direction because you explained your reasoning behind your FOS on me better than you did initially, but I think that since we're only half a day away from the vote deadline people should start voting and being very transparent and direct with their reads. Are you confident enough in your read on me to vote for me? If not then it's time that you decide who is your top scum candidate and outline a case and vote for them.
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going to sleep, i'll be back in the thread a few hours before the night post
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I will be gone for the next few hours too - I didn't have time to read the thread yet, so I can't really comment right now.
I will be back (well) before the deadline.
Sorry
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I am glad that you thrawn think that my quality has increased in that post.
That you still are suspicious of me even though Kush was in a similar situation to me earlier;
and has a lot more compelling and confusing mess associated.
You decided that I am more likely to be vote worthy, even with my best efforts to try harder.
I know that the idea of throwing votes around make you look scummy as ever, but consider that I roll town after you lead the lynch on me. I think it wise that although I have met your suspicions you change your path to either a no lynch based on little evidence or reconsider earlier targets.
Once again I use my previous post as reference to my non willingness to give you a read.
I'm just not sure on D1 of my first game.
This will be my last post before waking up before the lynch.
In my opinion thrawn is the only one that should be pushing for my lynch because he is committed to it,
at risk of not being a vote changer he really has no choice. If I get lynched than thrawn you can take top priority as scum.
I honestly don't see my scum motivations, I'm struggling to figure out what motivations look like.
I don't believe that anyone else thinks I am more guilty than Kush and even
kush mentioned:
"To other people in the thread let me just say that being a bad poster doens't make you mafia. Nothing about WeeTee screams mafia to me. He is just acting kind of like a defensive ass."
Both of us have clearly have underdeveloped skills and are trying to make amends.
I want to vote for thrawn because he has attacked me and I want to point out that if he leads me to the lynch he has scum all over him. BUT he has to hold a stance on something or risk being this "wishy washy" term that being used.
I can't fully justify my reasons for him to be scum, I know my play has been bad. So I wont be voting to lynch him.
Instead i'm kicking off my vote for Kush's defensive play, which is impossible to read. I'd rather it just be out in the open what he is playing at, then to speculate.
Please Read my posts to give me a fighting chance is all I ask.
##VOTE: kushm4sta
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Guys I am working on a massive post which will take a while longer to write and I would appreciate it if you did not commit to hard to your lynching until you have read it. I believe I have some valuable insight to give that has gone largely unsaid, but takes a while to articulate.
I am going to argue for a defense of WeeTee and Kush, and for a lynching of either Dandel Ion or Shady Sands. If you have time to spare please consider getting familiar with the filter's of these individuals.
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Okay, Day one countdown is starting to be felt and I think it’s about time people started acting on their convictions. I want at least one strong post from everyone before voting time.
My position at the moment is that both Kush and WeeTee are town, or at least not threats. I will most likely be voting for either Dandel Ion or Shady Sands, and will try my utmost to convince you guys to do so too.
First, I will argue in defence of Kush, and then extend this defence to WeeTee by means of this precedent.
Kush is town. He is THE most town person here, the only person you can be certain of being town other than yourself (I won’t bother addressing this to any scum reading this). This may seem counter intuitive to some, as he has done little in the way of pro-town behaviour. The reason he is almost certainly town is because he is the only one willing and able to prove it. If he is mafia, as soon as the clock ticks over to morning and he hasn’t jailed an individual that he specifies five minutes prior.
Think about the way he has been acting.
As previously mentioned by someone (I can’t remember who), Kush is acting alone. He has obviously not taken as much time to read through the newbie guides, nor has he spent much time looking through filters. If he had taken this time, he would not be in the predicament he is in. People that have not taken time to consider the meta, and are not of a systematic nature, would act exactly in accordance with the behaviour that has been demonstrated by Kush. A person who has his own private mafia buddy would be better informed of the norm and act accordingly: more cautiously, more precisely, and would premeditate his actions to a far greater degree.
Kush has been knee-jerking at every mention of his name faster than an epileptic watching river dance. He has no plans, no grasp of norms of town and scum behaviour, and seems to be taking a lot of the attacks on him a great deal more personally than is healthy.
The alternative explanations are that he is good mafia, or that he is bad mafia. We can rule out that he is a good mafia. It would take a genius to feign this level of incompetence in order to be read as town, but a genius mafia would not then put himself in the position of having to prove he is JK or be lynched. This leaves the possibility of him being bad mafia. If he is bad mafia, we will know soon when he fails to meet his part of the bargain, and we will have our lynch for day two, and will be in a four town to one mafia position come day three, which statistically favours the town more heavily than our starting position of seven town to two mafia. If this outcome eventuates, the town is ahead of schedule for scum lynching and should have enough information by then to close the deal.
So Kush is bad town (and likely to be shot for rolecalling).
Take a minute to consider my argument so far. Do you agree? If not, why not? If so, think about how Kush’s behaviour mirrors WeeTee’s, and how fortunate it is that Kush just happened to be JK, giving us grounds not to mislynch him on day one.
You done?
Now, if you can accept that Kush is almost certainly town, doesn’t this make it entirely believable that WeeTee is also town? With the exception of his most recent post, WeeTee has demonstrated behaviour nearly identical to Kush.
While Kush was unwilling to jump into the fray, claiming he didn’t have much to say. WeeTee has largely lurked with the intermittent injection of some vague uneducated insights, which, if you are in the business of motive attribution (if you haven’t figured it out already, you are!) is operationally identical to Kush’s early town play. He is likely a bored vanilla towney who, having probably been too proud to read the guides or ask for coaching, does not have the first idea about how to go about the business of hunting scum. There is no driving force in his posts other than to not be lynched, and without a fundamental understanding of what behaviour constitutes a tell for one alignment or the other, it is no wonder the prevalent elements of his posting style constitute knee-jerk kicks to the shins of anyone calling him out.
Their two styles are equivalent in game output: they contribute little, and as a result are targeted by nitpicky mafia and desperate-for-clues townies alike. I hope that this err… essay… I hope to have convinced you not to lynch either of our most inept junior members. In part two, I will attempt to give you a more suitable target in either Dandel Ion or Shady Sands. This will likely take even more time and words than my defence of kush and WeeTee, but I shall not rest until it is done!
As a disclaimer, I’d like to address the two people I just ruthlessly dismissed as incompetent. While the psychological models pertaining to learning style aptitudes (kinaesthetic learners, visual learners etc.) are largely bunk, it is true that people differ in their approach to learning. Many people including myself approach a new challenge with the intention of learning everything we can about it so as not to look incapable, while others prefer to learn by trial and error, it is the latter group in which I would likely put both WeeTee and Kush. While it is obvious to the people here that you are not as competent in this initial newbie game, I would attribute this to your learning style preference and effort involved rather than any innate incapacity, and so would advise you not to be discouraged by the tirades of criticism but to learn from them.
Stay tuned folks!
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@spaghetti
So you're saying that I should set aside my suspicions of WeeTee and see his behavior as poor play? I am more willing to do this for Kush because I think he more accurately fits the profile you outlined of someone who doesn't know what to do. Kush did commit very heavily too reads, in fact it was his 85% post that gave him the most attention. WeeTee didn't commit to reads, and when asked for reads he gave a reason why a player might be mafia, and reason why they might be town, and then dropped the subject without saying which he thought was more likely. Also, I can't ignore how he has still refused up to this point to give a read on lvdr. When he made that post where he FOS'd Alsn for being the only one to "chirp up" at kush's 85% statement, I looked at the thread and noticed that lvdr had strongly called out kush for that post. I asked WeeTee for his read on lvdr, and he did not give it. He continued posting in the thread so I asked him again. I continued asking him up until I went to sleep, and when I woke up he had still not responded. Even now, after making it part of my case against him, he still hasn't answered the question. Am I supposed to ignore this? I have called him out on it multiple times, it's been over 24 hours since I originally did it, and still he doesn't answer. I honestly can't think of any reason why a town-WeeTee would do that. I do not believe that he hasn't read the question. I asked him multiple times while he was still active during the beginning of the game, and I made it a major point of my case against him, and in his post where he says he is going to improve his play (top of the page) I included the question again as part of my response. He posted a 2nd time after that and even then he didn't even address the question or the fact that he had ignored it.
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Please, call me Spag.
IMO Kush's overconfident reads were overreactions to criticisms of his complacence. His initial stance was that he did not know what to do, and to his credit he at least did not pretend that he did.
Your attacks on WeeTee assume a pattern of systematic and rational cognitive style which I am almost certain is not the case. He is spontaneous and in over his head, with A LOT of information to sift through that is probably largely meaningless or confusing. My last post was almost exactly the equivalent size of a first year university paper, and it was one post in approximately 270.
Look at his last post, this is post-attitude adjustment and yet it is more characteristic of a stream of consciousness exercise than a coherent argument for his continued survival. While your point that he has repeatedly failed to give a read on Lvdr is completely reasonable, it is entirely understandable that a person who is struggling to make sense of a new environment is having difficulty conforming to a yet more demanding and arbitrary criteria of assessment of said environment. Even an incompetent scum would at least take the time to address a repeated criticism so as not to leave it hanging in the air begging questions. This epic a violation of the norm speaks almost certainly of a disinterested townie than an inept scum. I find it much more reasonable to assume that he simply does not have much to say about Lvdr and is bad at communicating this fact, than that he is a disinterested or incapable scum.
WeeTee, you are doing yourself no favours by leaving this to hang. Please make your position here clear! I am bolding this shit so you no longer have an excuse!!
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I'm really sorry for my absense over the last day or so. Unless you want excuses from me, I'll jump right into my views of the game so far.
I remain suspicious of Lvdr, as he has done little in the way of addressing my concerns. What I said about him was not about mindlessly throwing around FoS's, it was that despite his FoS's he has contributed very little to town or give us any insight into his motivations. Since my previous rough analysis of his play, he has made four posts, none of which affect my read on him. His strongest town action is his case against Shady, but though it gives us some insight into his motivations, I find the FoS suspicious. He seemed perfectly willing to declare Shady as town when he was acting in his "aggressive town" meta, but is apparently confused when Shady sticks to his "voting based on ridiculous reasoning" meta. I have seen evidence of both in my games against Shady (limited though they may be), and I see neither of them as good enough reasoning to confirm him as town or as scum. At the moment my vote will stand on him, unless switching my vote is able to avoid a no-lynch.
##vote Lvdr
My second candidate at the moment is WeeTee. Though in general I agree with Spag's recent posts, Thrawn raises a good point in that WeeTee has yet to take a side in most matters. Also, he has voted for kush because of his defensive, inexperienced play, when WeeTee himself is using it in his own defense as a bad townie. I would prefer to vote for him only as a last resort, but am willing to as he was my second scumread earlier in the game. As an aside, I realize I didn't mention this earlier. I found him more suspicious than kush for reasons that I couldn't put into words, so I didn't comment on him until I found out what was bugging me. Thrawn's post showed me what I was missing.
I look forward to Spag's post regarding Dandel lon and Shady. I'm going to have a look at other peoples' cases against Shady, but from my first read through I wasn't particularly convinced by them thus far.
I also realise that I am suspicious. I am going to try to be more active until voting time, though I make no promises since my sister is visiting for the first time in months, and she may not want to sit and watch me filter through forums. Ask me anything you want me to address for sure. I don't do this to pass my scumhunting responsibilities onto others, but because my methods of D1 scumhunting evidently need some work and I do want to contribute as much as possible. I am naturally more timid than aggressive, and I usually become a stronger poster when there is more concrete evidence (flips and night actions), so during D1 it's difficult for me to make strong reads, but I'd like to rise to the challenge.
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@Dandel I see what you mean about carrying the argument, I will attempt to table it for now... I find it hard to separate Shady being overly aggressive from Shady being scummy. I would put him on the 'don't-lynch-D1-but-watch-for-future-scummyness' list.
For d1 lynch I direct the towns attention to this post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361579¤tpage=13#253
To have no reads at this point is completely absurd. Also incredibly anti-town. Reeks of mafia playing too safe. Suspecting thrawn for being 'passive' is equally absurd. Thrawn has been active and productive. Not 100% confirmed town, but prolly the closest we have right now.
Add in this comedy of a follow-up:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361579¤tpage=13#259
Can I just say the entire post sucks?
WeeTee says he has no reads and then comes at thrawn with
Make a real case for gosh sake, now ur clearly FoSing me for the sake of it
You have refused to make a case and then OMGUS'ed someone for actually making a case against you.
shady really.. if your intelligent you wouldn't join this bandwagon too
This is not even an argument, just an emotional appeal.
##vote: WeeTee
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361579¤tpage=14#266
WeeTee's post before this one is the highest quality one to date, but this post is just more... bad.
Why are you piling on to kush (who is maybe the only easier target than you) when we have already decided that he is a poor choice to lynch d1? Your defense is that you are a new player just like kush, so your play has been bad-town instead of scummy, yet you still decide to vote for kush, the person you modeled your defense after. This doesn't read town, this reads mafia starting to struggle coming up to the lynch deadline.
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On August 26 2012 01:22 Lvdr wrote:WeeTee says he has no reads and then comes at thrawn with You have refused to make a case and then OMGUS'ed someone for actually making a case against you. This is not even an argument, just an emotional appeal.
Just for clarification purposes:
I was confused about that post for awhile. I think the post is addressed to shady and not me because shady was the one who FOS'd WeeTee without much of an explanation, while I skipped the FOS and went straight to a vote for WeeTee when I made my case against him.
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@mkfuba My explanation of town/scum reads on shady
1. First town read maybe 35% confidence. Partially motivated by an actual read (that was early and incomplete), but much more in order to stimulate discussion. Not really a brillient play because many players are new and couldn't comment on metas, but I was trying.
2. Given that it was early, I basically reserve the right to change my mind. Townies cannot be afraid to share reads because if they change their minds, suddenly they're scummy.
3. I think Dandel may have a point about bringing arguments in from other games. Both me and Shady are in Normal III, and we suspect each other there too  Hard to keep an impartial mind because I see many similar charactaristics across the games. For what its worth I think he's either town in both games or mafia in both games.
4. I would argue my FOS has been useful to town, there has been a good amount of discussion and I have been active in that. For example when I FOS'ed you, you hadn't posted much in the way of content -- now I would say you are active in scum hunting and so the FOS was successful.
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I will reread WeeTee's case, but it seems like mindless OMGUS either way.
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Okay so hopefully by this point you have payed close attention to my earlier post, and are convinced that Kush is town, and that WeeTee is likely town. The problem now is, who do we vote for? A no-lynch is an admission of defeat on day one that will generate zero data on who to lynch tomorrow, and will allow the scum to take one of our numbers for free. This IMO is worse than a mislynch, as it is the equivalent of allowing the mafia two killings on the first night. You would need to be bloody convincing to get me to believe a no-lynch is the best play for town.
This means we need to lynch someone and fast!
I will start with my case against Shady Sands as I have already pressured him a tad whereas my interaction with Dandel Ion has been null.
My initial case on Shady was the identification of the following two attacks as critical but unproductive and befitting a scummy motive to appear town while picking apart scapegoats more than a town motive of actual productivity:
Lvdr:
Having learned from hapa, I think mafia tend to be pretty lurky in newbie games.
Therefore, d1 lurker lynch is a great policy. However, this should not be a reason to not be scum hunting: scum hunting is vital, and forcing reads early is how town can catch mafia later in the game.
To which Shady responded:
I'm confused here: you seem to be implying that D1 lurker lynch and scumhunting are mutually exclusive. How?
…and
Fuba:
Hi everyone! I'm going to second everything that thrawn has said, as well as mention that this goes for night as well as day. As long as we keep the scumhunting going during the day, I think the conversation will carry over into night as well. Let's just make sure we keep it up!
To which Shady responded
:S I don't get what you're trying to say here. If you believe the scumhunting convo will carry automatically from day to night, then why do you need to encourage activity specifically during the night as well?
I gave a scum read on this as I characterised this as nonuseful nit-picking. I was admittedly over-confident in this read, as I had not thought of the possible long-term motive of Shady to detect seemingly unimportant discrepancies in player stories. I later withdrew my FoS from Shady thinking myself to have been over-eager. I stand by my withdrawal for my attack on the first critique on Lvdr, as his response:
On accusing Lvdr: I saw a policy disagreement developing in the thread--between leaning towards lurker lynching versus scumhunting--and I wanted to make sure Lvdr wasn't trying to unfairly equivocate on it. basically, in questions of policy, if someone posts on it, the post should have a clear preference one way or another so that we can judge their later play against their policy prefs--or combine them in such a way to have a clear lean in terms of policy, again, so we can judge their later play against their earlier view on policy. Lvdr's post didn't do that--it just balanced between the two while also saying they were different. I personally feel the two should be balanced but combined, so I wanted to see if Lvdr wanted to keep the two parts separate.
-is a consistent explanation of a town Shady’s behaviour. Consider this point dropped as I will pursue it no further.
His explanation for his critique on fuba however:
On Fuba: most of my doubts on Fuba have gone away by now, but at the time, I thought that Fuba's emphasis on night activity itself is scummy. Scum have greater power to use and abuse the thread than town does at night, so encouraging heavy activity at night without saying daytime activity is more important hands an edge to scum. But given that was his first post I didn't want to push him too hard on it.
-is flaky. It’s not enough that he changed his mind about Fuba (switching sides without adequate justification is considered scummy anyway), his initial read on Fuba was irrational and his attention to this detail looks exactly like Shady was sowing the seeds of discord. What exactly did Shady think Fuba’s intention was here? To somehow kill town activity in the day by emphasising the nightlife? This does not make sense and fits a motive of appearing critical while achieving nothing. I am not at all satisfied with this answer and I demand a better explanation.
In the same post, Shady shifts his attention to Kush:
Now, moving to Kush:
Kush is running the classic "bad townie" defense. It's an argument where the poster says:
1) I am a bad townie
2) People are just targeting me because I'm a bad townie, and hence easy to lynch
3) Those people must be targeting me because I'm easy, and not because they actually think I'm scum
4) Because those people aren't targeting me because I'm scum, then they must be trying to trick town
5) They must be scum.
This is a really bad defense because every links 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4 are all not 100% airtight. Hence Kush's entire defense, to me, is a wash--it neither makes him look scummier, nor makes him look like more of a townie. If Kush keeps posting like this, though, then I'm probably going to vote him because my initial read will be unchanged. But if Kush decides to start posting coherent, long cases backed by logic instead of OMGUS, then I might change my mind.
I have outlined my reasons for why Kush is almost certainly town. Shady is one of the more experienced players here, and yet got a complete opposite read? Shady’s argument is quite well reasoned, and is correct in that Kush’s defence is piss weak. The problem is, it is not a valid argument that a person who is bad at the game is scum, and this argument is exactly the sort a scum would employ to provoke a seemingly reasonable misunderstanding and subsequent mislynch.
Lvdr wrote:
@shady My initial 'town call' on shady was mostly in order to stimulate discussion. Yes, he did match his meta for the most part, but it was extremely early to decide that someone was already town. At this point I am pretty suspicious that he decided kush's JK claim is scummy enough to insta-vote him. Seems like textbook play from a mafia jumping on the mistakes of a newbie.
please read.
To which Shady responds:
Wait a second. You do a town call on me, knowing full well it's early for a town call, just so you can trap people later, then when no one falls for your trap you turn around and FoS me? This makes a lot of sense. Not.
The thing is… it does make sense. Lvdr made a non-committal play against Shady, in order to generate discussion and hunt scum. This does not give Shady some sort of amnesty from actually being scum. Lvdr had a legitimate reason to FoS Shady, it is one of the reasons I am FoSing him myself!
Next…
Again, my PoV on Kush is that
1) His post quality is so poor that spending an excessive amount of time analyzing he's guilty or not will be counterproductive.
2) His roleclaim does not sound like a confused townie to me--it sounds like a scum looking to bait a counter-claim.
3) We shouldn't necessarily give him the benefit of the doubt just because he sounds like a bad townie.
To paraphrase:
1) Kush is bad so we should not think about whether he is guilty before we lynch him. Time spent thinking about whether we should lynch him is time wasted because in the end we will lynch him regardless? This is despite the fact that by voting now without further thought, I am ruling out the possibility of thinking about other potential lynches. The cost is too high!
2) Despite the potential exposure of 50% of the mafia in this game, I am certain that Kush would roleclaim for the faintest whiff of a hint of who the town blues are.
3) We should ignore his potential motives and remove all doubt from our minds.
This is garbage. Shady is an experienced player who should be able to imagine alternate motives. This IMO is a clumsy misdirection attempt.
The next evidence I present is what seems to be a weak case against Lvdr:
I'm going to start with this post by Lvdr as to why we should lynch him after we lynch Kush.
Lvdr is saying that he did a town read on me and FoS'd mkfuba to "spark discussion". He didn't actually mean it--or at least, he didn't mean it as strongly as he made the town think.
Basically, he lied. One thing that I feel even more strongly about than lynching lurkers is lynching liars. That's strike one against Lvdr here.
Strike two--
He dumps accusations everywhere. On me, on mkfuba, on kush--and then lifts them as quickly as he dumps them. Pointing fingers everywhere on minimal evidence is usually a scumtell. Scum want to make town spend more time defending itself than hunting scum.
Strike three--
This is what I don't get from Lvdr. He accuses mkfuba and kush weakly, leaves the thread, then comes back and calls townie on them, saying that his earlier reads were to spark discussion bullshit. Nothing mkfuba has done in the intervening 20 hours justifies this backtracking from his earlier FoS, much less Kush. Instead, Lvdr just implicitly asserts it.
Why is this wierd? Because any player who was basing his reads off evidence would follow up on the FoS, see that mkfuba hasn't done anything that screams pro-town. And I'm still not sure how Lvdr could just wholly dismiss his earlier FoS on kush on any reasonable basis when the only evidence Kush has provided is an extremely weak JK claim. Basically, when you look at how rapidly Lvdr shifts his accusations around, it almost looks like he's playing with prior knowledge of who is town. This is the clearest and biggest scumtell in the book. Even if you buy that on Kush, how could he just dump the FoS he's given with the weak excuse that he was trying to spark discussion, without even discussing what happened to his targets that made him drop the FoS?
His first point is that Lvdr lied and lying is scummy. This is rubbish. Lvdr’s intention falls neither clearly under scum nor town, but the fact that he explicitly admits the lie speaks of a lack of premeditation that would characterise scummy play. Is Shady suggesting that Lvdr planned to lie to create discord, then tell us about the lie to remove any Fos from him? What’s the point? By revealing the lie Lvdr sacrifices any premises that were relying on it, the only consequent we are left with is the subsequent discussion which speaks of a teleological town play. Narrowing in on a lie simply because it is a lie ignores the intent of the lie and therefore almost deliberately leads conversation down a dead-end. This is scummy play.
His second point is that Lvdr dumps accusations everywhere and then withdraws them. I do not consider this read strong nor the implications falsifiable. It is true that it is normal for scum to not hold solid opinions, as this would make them accountable for their actions. It is also true that on the first day most people are going to feign confidence in order to stimulate discussion, when they don't really have that much to go on. Yet again there is an alternate explanation that Shady has simply refused to consider...
His third point is basically conjecture following from his other false premises, e.g. that the case on Kush is actually worth pursuing prior to day 2 etc.
The consistent elements of Shady’s play are:
1) A knee-jerk reaction policy against any form of dishonesty regardless of the underlying intention. A scum only needs to be sure that both his friend and himself are not going to lurk, and then they have license to interrogate lazy townies in the name of the town. This is not a good criteria for certified town excellence. Likewise, it is relatively easy for scum to not get caught in a lie that early in a game. Having this sort of warped black-and-white view is a great cover for picking on new players while keeping the focus of actual scum.
2) A tendency to pick easy lynches. I am desperately trying to prevent what I think is the mislynching of both Kush and WeeTee. It is not an easy path and I can more than understand lazier townies taking the path of least resistance. We have a time limit here, do not for a second think that mislynching less able town on day one is a good start. Think long and hard on what possible motives an experienced town player would have for taking the easiest mislynch possible.
3) He does not present falsifiable reads. He barely raises a finger to rule out possible intentions, while casting blame on people for actions which have multiple interpretations. In contrast, I clearly state a soon to be confirmed read on Kush, I rule out alternate hypotheses, and I move in people’s defence when they are being attacked unfairly. All my actions speak of town play, and all my town motivated reads on Shady have come up scummy. Yes I am appealing to my credibility, but I do so in a way that is direct and rational and I challenge you to question my assertions.
4) A blasé approach to who gets lynched. Experienced townies should feel the time constraints placed upon them to accurately identify scum. Shady does not act as if he cares, pooling in against the easiest target that happens to walk by. Read his filter and see!
5) Filling up the thread with calls to action for other members, and only flimsy and biased readings of his own. Again, look at his filter!
Now it's 2:30am and I just spent a looong time on this game. I was planning on writing a case against Dandel Ion but quite frankly I doubt there is any point in light of my case on Shady. If I survive the night shootings I will probably pursue him on the morrow if new data does not lead me down a different path. Please people, I am spending a lot of time and effort trying to rip this game open, at least read through the posts that took me infinitely longer to write. Do so with a critical eye as I have no reason to shy away.
Goodnight!
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@spags + anyone else that wants to comment
I don't like Shady as a d1 lynch for these reasons:
1. I think there is a legit meta case for shady being town. His aggression and tunneling so far does match Newbie Mafia IV where he got mislynched d1 as an overeager townie.
2. He has been active enough that I think that if he is mafia we will be able to catch him later based on stances he has taken.
3. As a general rule, lynching active but contriversial players D1 leads to mislynches.
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Also! @everyone please plan to be here around lynch time!
There is nothing worse for a town than for it to be afk when the lynch is going down!
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EPT
