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Newbie Mini Mafia XXV - Page 15

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
August 25 2012 16:51 GMT
#281
V-V-V-V-VOTE COUNT:

WeeTee (2): thrawn2112, lvdr
kushm4sta (2): Shady Sands, WeeTee
lvdr (1): mkfuba07
Shady Sands (1): Spaghetticus

Presently, no one is set to be lynched! 4 hours remain in Day 1!
Dandel Ion, Alsn, kushm4sta have yet to vote!
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
August 25 2012 16:57 GMT
#282
We need 5 votes to lynch right?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
August 25 2012 17:10 GMT
#283
On August 26 2012 01:47 Lvdr wrote:
@spags + anyone else that wants to comment

I don't like Shady as a d1 lynch for these reasons:
1. I think there is a legit meta case for shady being town. His aggression and tunneling so far does match Newbie Mafia IV where he got mislynched d1 as an overeager townie.

2. He has been active enough that I think that if he is mafia we will be able to catch him later based on stances he has taken.

3. As a general rule, lynching active but contriversial players D1 leads to mislynches.


Yeah. I read spags case against shady, but pretty much everything spags interpreted as scummy behavior are things that shady did in NMMXXIV as a townie and a lot of those things were directed specifically at me. The nitpicking, flippant use of FOS's, being overly aggressive in trying to get people to agree with him, and the non-falsifiable reads were all things town-shady did that game and it made everyone suspicious of him and he got mislynched. My read on shady is that he's in line with his town meta during the game I played with him. Based on my experience in newbie game 24 I don't think lynching shady for spag's reasons is a good idea.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
August 25 2012 17:33 GMT
#284
On August 26 2012 01:47 Lvdr wrote:
@spags + anyone else that wants to comment

I don't like Shady as a d1 lynch for these reasons:
1. I think there is a legit meta case for shady being town. His aggression and tunneling so far does match Newbie Mafia IV where he got mislynched d1 as an overeager townie.

2. He has been active enough that I think that if he is mafia we will be able to catch him later based on stances he has taken.

3. As a general rule, lynching active but contriversial players D1 leads to mislynches.

I agree entirely with #2 and #3, and with #1 as long as I add a bit to it. Shady is behaving as he did in XXIV, and we mislynched him. I do think that Spag's post raised good points (and I will try to comment on anything I disagree with before the lynch), but Lvdr's #2 covers my overall reaction to a D1 Shady lynch.

Dismissing Shady's play as following his town meta is a mistake. I did that throughout all of D1 in XXIV with YourHarry and as anyone who followed that game knows, that was a mistake. I'm not going to accept "it's his meta" to dismiss scummy behaviour, since a scummy town meta is, well, scummy. That being said, if Shady is scum, he is definitely catchable at a later date. In this, #2 and #3 will override my aversion to accepting #1.
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
Lvdr
Profile Joined August 2012
United States418 Posts
August 25 2012 17:42 GMT
#285
Since its getting down to the deadline I want to reveal my plan for d1 deadline:

I think we should lynch Dandel Ion

Dandel Ion is one of the most experienced players in this game, yet he has also been one of the most lurky. He has offered almost nothing but filler posts to appear active while doing basically no scumhunting. He is much too experienced to be as passive as he has been. The only time he has offered a FOS it has been to lightly suspect me, at a time when it was EXTREMELY safe to do so.

Read through his filter: it SCREAMS mafia lurking through D1. He offers just enough content to register as active without really contributing anything to town.

I am still suspicious of WeeTee, but I stand by my statement that lynching active but contriversial players D1 typically leads to mislynches. WeeTee could still be bad-townie or desperate-newb mafia, but I do not think he is the best D1 lynch target.

Finally, whatever happens town cannot allow there to be a no-lynch. Therefore I implore all townies to

##Vote:Dandel Ion
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
August 25 2012 17:46 GMT
#286
Also, does anyone have any comments on my case on Lvdr? I'd like any feedback at all from someone who isn't myself or Lvdr.

@Dandel Ion, Alsn, kushm4sta
Please get a vote in soon. Scum already have the advantage during the lynch, so we need all of the information we can get asap. We know your vote may change, but who is your strongest scumread at the moment?
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-25 18:00:16
August 25 2012 17:54 GMT
#287
5 votes are needed to lynch.

e: derp
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
August 25 2012 17:58 GMT
#288
(players remaining+1)/2 = (9+1)/2 = 5
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
August 25 2012 18:00 GMT
#289
On August 26 2012 02:54 ghost_403 wrote:
5 votes are needed to lynch.


That's what I said
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Lvdr
Profile Joined August 2012
United States418 Posts
August 25 2012 18:01 GMT
#290
lol ghost we all know counting is hard !!
Lvdr
Profile Joined August 2012
United States418 Posts
August 25 2012 18:03 GMT
#291
Where is everyone? It's getting fairly close to deadline!
mkfuba07
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1151 Posts
August 25 2012 18:04 GMT
#292
@Lvdr
I looked through his filter, and Dandel lon does look quite scummy. In addition to what you've said, I'd like to add that he's promised twice to be present before the lynch (once "(well) before"), and hasn't appeared yet, with only three hours remaining. I'd like to hear anyone else's take on my case, as well as Dandel lon's response to your case, before switching my vote. If we don't hear from him at all, I'll certainly switch as I feel that you've now taken a significant stand on something.

@ghost
My mistake, my sight must be slipping Though I expect you to be modkilled for editing your post! >:|
Never trust a skinny innkeeper
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
August 25 2012 18:18 GMT
#293
On August 26 2012 02:46 mkfuba07 wrote:
Also, does anyone have any comments on my case on Lvdr? I'd like any feedback at all from someone who isn't myself or Lvdr.

@Dandel Ion, Alsn, kushm4sta
Please get a vote in soon. Scum already have the advantage during the lynch, so we need all of the information we can get asap. We know your vote may change, but who is your strongest scumread at the moment?



I'll respond to some things that stick out. He accused your post of being fluffy and I do agree with that accusation. It was your 2nd post of the game and it happened 6 hours after your first post and didn't contain any reads so I see why he'd call you out on it. And you say that he hasn't participated that much in scumhunting but since that claim he's definitely ramped up his efforts. I'm gonna go with town read.

Shady what are your thoughts on the cases? A lot has happened since you last posted.

Concerning Dandel lon, I looked at his filter and correct me if I'm wrong but I can only see 1 time when he commits to a read. Does look like a scummy lurker. He'll be my #2 vote behind WeeTee. It's getting really close to the deadline and people that haven't voted are making it harder to make this decision. Once all the votes are in I will decide to go with my top scum read or the lurker scumread. I'm not in favor of a no lynch when my options are my top scumread and a viable lurker lynch.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Lvdr
Profile Joined August 2012
United States418 Posts
August 25 2012 18:21 GMT
#294
@Thrawn and Mkfuba

At this point I REALLY think Dandel is a much higher quality lynch than WeeTee. WeeTee is playing poorly, But Dandel is playing Scummy.

Scummy>bad
Alsn
Profile Joined February 2008
Sweden995 Posts
August 25 2012 18:21 GMT
#295
Ok, had to take a nap for a few hours in order to be able to stay awake at lynch time, but now I'm back.

Boy did things happen in those few hours! First, I would generally like to agree with spag about kush/WT as I made clear in my earlier post that I only really wanted to lynch WT if there was no other option.

That being said, if I am to exclude them both as lynch targets today the cases presented so far are against Shady Sands, Lvdr and Dandel Ion. Seeing as I have already placed suspicion of my own against Shady, I absolutely understand where Spag is coming from. However, right now I'm more inclined to believe that he is overzealous, especially considering the fact that if we (mis)lynch someone else, he is one of the players that we have the most material on for analysis as outlined by Lvdr.

I would like to return to the discussion we had early about lurker lynching. From what we have gathered so far, the "lurkiest"(descending from most lurky) seem to be: Dandel Ion, mkfuba, WT, kush and arguably Lvdr and Spag. I feel that Lvdr and Spag has at least provided enough thoughts of their own that they can be considered non-lurky, and mkfuba to some degree has done this as well. You all know my opinion of WT/kush resembles that of Spag. This leaves Dandel Ion as a lurky player that we don't know very much about.

For this reason, I'm inclined to agree with Lvdr that Dandel Ion is a lynch that town should be able to get behind. I realize that mkfuba accusing Lvdr has merit, and I will address his concerns, but first.

##Vote Dandel Ion

@mkfuba: I entirely agree with your concerns regarding Lvdr, but I find his arguments for lynching Dandel Ion compelling. I also think that a (supposed) scum Lvdr has gotten away with posting way too little motivations for his reasoning. I called him out on more than one occasion for exactly that reason. I do believe that asking him to shape up during N1/D2 would reveal his intentions however. Also, while your case against Lvdr has some merit, I feel that your own motivations could easily be seen as scummy, for these resons I cannot get behind your case just yet.

@Spag: I agree with you that if you are wearing scum-tinted glasses, looking at Shady's behavior can easily be seen as scum, I need look no further than my own FoS to see that and your own case surely doesn't help me lose that suspicion. Like I said earlier in this post, I do believe we need to give him the benefit of the doubt as well however.

@everyone I urge you all to listen to Spag's argument regarding WT/kush, please instead get behind one of the other cases and tell us your reasons for doing so. I would like to repeat my earlier sentiment that if the only choice we have is between kushm4sta and WeeTee, my vote will go on WeeTee. I would however like to see us come to some kind of consensus at least an hour before lynch time. 2:40 to go.
Machina improba! Vel mihi ede potum vel mihi redde nummos meos!
Alsn
Profile Joined February 2008
Sweden995 Posts
August 25 2012 18:24 GMT
#296
Just would like to point out that I will be reading this thread for all of the remainder of the day, so rest assured that if someone has something to say, I will read it.
Machina improba! Vel mihi ede potum vel mihi redde nummos meos!
Dandel Ion
Profile Joined November 2010
Austria17960 Posts
August 25 2012 18:24 GMT
#297
Okay, I'm here and going to post my current opinions.
Sorry I was pretty busy the last days, I would have liked to be more active too.
Bigger post coming soon(tm)
A backwards poet writes inverse.
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
August 25 2012 18:28 GMT
#298
On August 26 2012 03:21 Lvdr wrote:
@Thrawn and Mkfuba

At this point I REALLY think Dandel is a much higher quality lynch than WeeTee. WeeTee is playing poorly, But Dandel is playing Scummy.

Scummy>bad


Spag's argument is that weetee/kush are just playing badly and that's why they're getting all the attention. I'm gonna quote my response to spag's post:

On August 25 2012 22:33 thrawn2112 wrote:
@spaghetti

So you're saying that I should set aside my suspicions of WeeTee and see his behavior as poor play? I am more willing to do this for Kush because I think he more accurately fits the profile you outlined of someone who doesn't know what to do. Kush did commit very heavily too reads, in fact it was his 85% post that gave him the most attention. WeeTee didn't commit to reads, and when asked for reads he gave a reason why a player might be mafia, and reason why they might be town, and then dropped the subject without saying which he thought was more likely. Also, I can't ignore how he has still refused up to this point to give a read on lvdr. When he made that post where he FOS'd Alsn for being the only one to "chirp up" at kush's 85% statement, I looked at the thread and noticed that lvdr had strongly called out kush for that post. I asked WeeTee for his read on lvdr, and he did not give it. He continued posting in the thread so I asked him again. I continued asking him up until I went to sleep, and when I woke up he had still not responded. Even now, after making it part of my case against him, he still hasn't answered the question. Am I supposed to ignore this? I have called him out on it multiple times, it's been over 24 hours since I originally did it, and still he doesn't answer. I honestly can't think of any reason why a town-WeeTee would do that. I do not believe that he hasn't read the question. I asked him multiple times while he was still active during the beginning of the game, and I made it a major point of my case against him, and in his post where he says he is going to improve his play (top of the page) I included the question again as part of my response. He posted a 2nd time after that and even then he didn't even address the question or the fact that he had ignored it.


"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Lvdr
Profile Joined August 2012
United States418 Posts
August 25 2012 18:31 GMT
#299
@Thrawn I actually can see a possibility of a WeeTee Dandel scumteam, but I think that Dandel is still the best D1 lynch, and that WeeTee can be the subject of a lot of scrutiny D2. Still waiting for dandel responce too.
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
August 25 2012 18:36 GMT
#300
Can we get an updated vote count?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
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