I may be a bit bitter about my most recent game, but I still enjoy playing this game.
I'm still learning, and I'm looking forward to a chance to rebound .
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I may be a bit bitter about my most recent game, but I still enjoy playing this game. I'm still learning, and I'm looking forward to a chance to rebound . | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Yeah. Got me last game as scum with that but tbh I would have been just about as active day one as town. I still don't really have day one figured out, so don't expect me to go into hyperactive mode for day one this game. In the context of last game, it was used as a last resort which imho is the only time it should be considered. Active discussion of suspects and the cases created day one are far more valuable than trying for a "lucky lynch." And regarding the vote for Shady Sands: If you're going to make a vote try to make at least a few "case points" behind it. Otherwise we're going to have a pretty ridiculous situation where everyone finger points each other over pretty much nothing. Look at Mordanis's (who was town) play in NMM XXII. He started the game with a WIFOM case, and lo and behold was actively accused all game. That suspicion could have been better spent elsewhere, so make your cases thorough before voting please. Lastly: Now would be a great time to discuss policy. The ever-popular "lurker-lynch" policy is a great point of discussion. Also, if there's an experience that comes to mind that you feel we could benefit from via a policy feel free to bring it up . | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched. And obligatory game filters: Vanilla townie: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315&user=81106 Godfather: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=81106 | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Vanilla Townie is NMM XXII Godfather is NMM XXIII | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Game only started about four hours ago... Let's give people a little time before FOSing them for not posting. And I still believe an explanation of some kind is called for for your sudden change of opinion on Solarsail. "It will sort itself out" isn't very transparent... | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
A couple quick comments before bed though... Regarding the suspicions going at Shady: Yes, he may have maintained a high degree of activity with few case points presented by himself, but to his credit he has gotten town talking and meaningful discussion rolling. I'm content to see him "prod" people, as someone needs to do this. And his case on YourHarry is definitely a good start in the right direction. Let's keep in mind there's three scum, not just one. So let's each try to give multiple scum reads where possible instead of tunneling one person at a time. Especially since if everyone tunnels the same guy today, and doesn't discuss other suspects in any detail, we pretty much go into day one all over again (if we mislynch) come day 2. I would have liked, for example, to hear a little more about Shady's "scum reads" on some of the people he's prodded prior and taken a break from, especially Solarsail. And regarding reading our filters from prior games: This is a newbie game, meaning filters are very sparse. A two-game "meta read" is hardly anything to go off of, as you can't honestly expect people to make exactly the same mistakes in their play over and over again. Everyone's gameplay will definitely change in the first few games. It's near-impossible to get a real "play pattern" off like two games, and I don't feel a "meta-read" is really going to be that valuable... If anything, it will make people over-suspicious of people who have a strong scum history, and overly-trusting of those with a strong town history. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Going away from this "troll" playstyle gives us more insight into Solarsail's motivation behind his posts, which is not a good idea from a scum perspective. As scum, he could have hidden behind his troll behavior until getting lynched. If he did a good job of it, he would be so disruptive there would be no meaningful conversation about other scum reads. Further, when the time came to lynch him there would be such consensus that no meaningful leads would come from his lynching. As I've just mentioned, there is a legitimate scum reason for his early postings. But as I've already discussed, I feel his aggressive early stance was most likely town-motivated. This is because in a newbie game, I would not expect such a scum play, but rather for scum to play more "safely." Further, the scum playstyle I've described would be a bit high risk, high reward. The longer a "troll scum" could stay alive, the more derailed the town would be and the better off the scum team would be. However, drawing attention to one's self like Solarsail did so early in the game would definitely put scum in a situation where they might have to bus Solarsail day one, and I can't think of many situations where a voluntary day one scum bus is ever really a good idea. Therefore, even though I could see a "troll scum" motivation, Solarsail's early play felt too aggressive even for that. TL;DR: Solarsail, like anyone else here, could be scum, but my impression of his early play was that he was more likely an aggressive townie. I feel there is more of a plausible town motivation than a scum motivation for him to now change his playstyle to be more constructive. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
@Darthpunk: I get that Shady is on your "suspects list." Who else, though, do you feel is scummy? You're definitely not the only person guilty of doing this, and it is pretty early still in the game. But I'm honestly hoping that we don't see a repeat of your relentless tunneling (e.g. Mordanis in XXII) to the point of pretty much excluding reads on anyone else. You should be especially aware of this, given you were scum in that game... @thrawn: Focusing exclusively on archrun isn't going to be very productive right now. If you want to note him as a great choice for a "lurker back-up lynch," then feel free to do so and move on. Scum reads are more important right now than hunting lurkers. You could prod him all day one if you like, but honestly even then he very well might not contribute anything. And you will have wasted a day on a lurker, which makes you look bad because making cases on lurkers is so easy to do and a "safe" scum move. @Golbat, Archrun, Juhyt: Your filters are especially sparse. I'd like to hear more from you. It's not limited to these people, but a cursory glance at their filters shows them to be especially guilty of being "lurky." As a general observation: conversation seems to be dominated right now by only a handful of people. If we want to increase town's chances, everyone (especially the lurky) needs to step up and become more involved. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
@Darthpunk: Re-read your filter right after finishing my post. Looks like you're also pressuring YourHarry. So forget what I said about you tunneling, but it's still something I'm definitely keeping an eye out for. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Tbh, I didn't respond because you haven't given me anything worth responding to. I clearly explained my position on Solar. I even made a follow-up post on my thought process behind my early Solar impression. I'm not going back on anything. Never did I say Solar is "confirmed town." I have only said my read on him is that it's more likely he's town than scum. And the "Sigh..." comment that you're embellishing has nothing to do with me thinking Solar was a "confirmed town." It had to do with frustration with the scenario of us wasting our entire day tunneling and lynching a bad town (which I still believe Solar to be). In said scenario, we go into day two without any information. It's a terrible situation, because it makes day two into another day one with fewer town. So how could I conclude that Solar is probably town? It's called intuition and wit. I strongly encourage you to use some in your future arguments. Now onto my read on you. You've already mentioned you like to tunnel other people, and change your vote on short notice.: On August 15 2012 11:48 YourHarry wrote: My meta: -snip- To summarize my meta, in the first 2.5 games, I am quick to make accusations and switch my vote players with little explanation. I decided to change my meta in game 3 where I drew vanilla townie. I played more conservative to avoid suspicion. This is your fourth game, so my mind is a bit blown trying to conceive how you could think that quickly vote switching between players is strong pro-town play. From how I look at it, you've specifically given us this summary of your own meta to justify doing whoever you want without the transparency the town needs to understand your motivation. You're entitled to your own opinion, and you're more than entitled to vote for me. But tunneling with such a weak case and comments such as the one above are actions that could easily be scum-motivated.: ##FoS: YourHarry I look forward to your reply, but right now... I need to review everyone's filters and make my cases on top scum suspects as promised. Darthpunk is excited to hear them, and I'm not going to let him down | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
(like latest Batman movie disappointing ) But here's my case. It's going to be short and sweet.: A big part of day one is establishing a good future town atmosphere. To that end, there are several people that are not participating as they should. The guiltiest of these are: Jhuyt and Golbat. Jhuyt: Jhuyt is especially suspicious to me right now. I have read the recent case presented against him by Archrun above. I tend to agree heavily with his first point: about Jhuyt's experience with Solar's post history on TL being consistent with his posting. I'm not ready to call Jhuyt a liar, but claiming Solar is troll/emotional generally on TL requires further explanation. Upon looking through some of his posts, I haven't seen this to be the case. If he is lying, this is enough reason to lynch him. Now the other part of Jhuyt that is scummy is how wishy-washy he is in the limited amount of content he has posted. Let's look at his latest post. In bold are his current "reads" on certain people. Notice how hesitant he is to take a stance on anyone.: On August 15 2012 20:18 Jhuyt wrote: Hmm, you're right, I should try to be more helpful. On Solar: This is just how he is in general from what I've seen on TL, so I don't have anything there. On Shady: Shady tries to control the game, which is an act that I don't often see in normal townies, I've most often encountered it when a scum tries to make everybody think he's the sheriff. It is, however, a game of high risk and relies heavily on the actual sheriff being useless. He might be the sheriff as well, and this is why I think the first day is kinda silly, I don't know what to think solely based on his posts, they seem consistent. I still think that YourHarry is something scummy simply because his posting behavior is strange, on everybody else, I need more evidence before making up my mind. Also, he is currently the winner of the "lurker prize." It is clear from what he has contributed that he has little interest in scum hunting. Therefore: ##Vote: Jyuht Consider it both a vote based on scum behavior and on "lurker policy." In the absence of a stronger scum read my vote goes on him. Golbat: I expected more from you. I know that it really sucks being mislynched day 1, and I haven't ruled out your lurkiness as being from over-reacting to your poor play in XXII by playing almost the exact opposite of how you played then. But you have to step up and continue posting your reads. What got you in trouble then was vote-swapping without giving much explanation. As long as you give an explanation for your reads, don't be afraid to FoS and vote. What you're doing now makes you look just as scummy as how you looked in XXII. ##FoS: Golbat YourHarry: I haven't forgotten about you. However poorly I feel you'd be playing as town by playing the way you are right now, I can't say it would be inconsistent with what I'd expect based on your previous play. I'm not un-FoS-ing you but I'm not ready to vote you as my top scum read right now either. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Just read SolarSail's point on Jhuyt, so he's not a liar. But the remainder of what I said of him still remains, and is enough for my vote to stay on him. | ||
goodkarma
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(mis-spelling): ##Vote: Jhuyt | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 16 2012 19:42 Shady Sands wrote: I am going to say this again very clearly: ## Vote Thrawn2112, ## FoS Ochrow Everyone just do it. My response to this can be summarized in one word: NO. The absolute last thing we need is for everyone to sheep onto a candidate. Everyone who hasn't voted needs to clearly spell out their scum suspects and their reasoning for voting for who they do. Our reasoning for our lynch candidates is just as important (if not more) than who we choose on day one. Sheeping leads to two scenarios: What information do we get on everyone's motivations if we mislynch? Pretty much nothing... Well, everyone voted for this one person because they were told to. It pretty much leads to day two turning into an extended day one. The vote will have meant pretty much nothing, since everyone blindly ganged up on the wrong candidate... If we lynch a scum, then great. Everyone celebrates and forgets how bad sheeping is. But it's just not worth it. Part of day one is encouraging a good town atmosphere, and sheeping is never a part of that. If you're going to try to position yourself as a town leader, then this is not the way to do it. I'd go so far as to give you a "light": ##FoS: Shady Sands Encouraging sheeping is very anti-town. From a town perspective, I think it's very plausible you're a little overexcited about your findings on Thrawn, and what you perceive to be a sure scum day one lynch, and that's why I'd call it a "light FoS." Honestly, though, this post was alarming to me, and looks like a great way to herd town behind a scum agenda. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Btw: Lynch is plurality, which is something I'm actually pretty happy with. It means everyone can vote their own candidate without fear of a no lynch. There's no reason or excuse for people to sheep other people's votes to secure a majority. Everyone can vote their strongest read . Regarding Thrawn: I will look at Shady's case summary points one by one and describe my own assessment. On August 17 2012 01:29 Shady Sands wrote: -snip- Here's the summary of the Thrawn case: 1) Lots of soft-defenses of multiple players through the first half of D1 2) Jumping on the Archrun train with poor justification ("non-contributing lurker") 3) Chainsawing a neutral player (Z-Boson) for attacking the player who he used to justify the Archrun FoS (Ochrow) 4) Continuing to FoS Archrun even after he posted content, sheeping Ochrow, the same player who he was defending against Z-Boson 5) Coordinating *all* his reads with Ochrow (including the ones on YH and Solar, the two other contentious players in the game) 6) Threatening to OMGUS lynch me if I don't reread his defense and reconsider my accusations against him (based off the exact opposite justifications that he used to accuse Archrun) 7) OMGUS voting me anyhow 1) So I see he comments on a few people who came under suspicion early on, including: Solarsail, YourHarry, and Ochrow. He more or less decides all of them are town. I feel he was a little hasty in doing so, but if you look at his wording, it seems his logic (at least for YourHarry) is that he doesn't believe what said person has mentioned so far is scummy. Therefore, he's town... Not the best logic to be following, but I can at least see where he's coming from and understand a (bad) townie motivation. The main post I believe Shady is referencing is below: + Show Spoiler + On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Policy? A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so. Concerning the YH topic: 3 possibilities immediately come to mind: One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned. At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. Solarsail Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling. mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? 2) Yeah, "non-contributing lurker" may not be the best motivation, but Archrun was definitely the guiltiest among them at the beginning, when Thrawn's initial accusation of Archrun was made. 3) This is a pretty weak case point. I see where this came from, and the clarification seems to be justified. Honestly, I don't see any real scumminess from this post. It's down below for everyone's benefit: On August 16 2012 08:29 thrawn2112 wrote: Z-Boson, are you thinking that Ochrow has a read on NH that he isn't explaining? Show nested quote + On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote: On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. What I got from that quote is that ochrow thinks NH could be town. The opening statement of that quote you referenced was "So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him" followed by "he too is giving off a town feel." I don't understand if you are saying Ochrow has a town or scum read on NH. 4) As best I can tell he jumps on the "lurker lynch train." He then focuses on Archrun for being the worst lurker. He then sees Archrun's first big non-lurker post, and tunnels harder on him after feeling the case is weak. This is certainly not the best way to play town, but I could understand how Thrawn might have done this as town. I in fact did a similar thing when I first started my first game in NMM XXII (as a VT). I said "I'm lynching a lurker." I saw the guiltiest guy of lurking. Then when he posted some stuff and became a little less lurky, I still tunneled in on him because I felt what he said was scummy... 5) I'm not a fan of connection-based theories for scum reads, but there is some uncanny similarities between the two's stances. The post timing (aka exactly the same time) of their similar stances on both YH and solar early game is the most suspicious. I'd dismiss it as two people posting independently, but considering YH "town" was hardly the most mainstream idea. Yet both do it at the same time. They also manage to comment on two of the same people in that post. This strongly implies to me they might be sharing a QT. But I would still consider it possible they are masons. 6 & 7) OMGUS-ing is an emotional response that Thrawn could easily do as either town or scum. This is a null read in my opinion. Another point I noticed reading Shady's earlier posts on this: Regarding asking questions during "slow times": This is generally a neutral read to me motivation-wise. Both as scum and as town Thrawn could be asking questions. Shady's been doing the same kind of thing, so it's a bit ironic to me this was one of his earlier case points against Thrawn. Honestly, I felt some of Thrawn's questions were made with the intention of pushing discussion on his suspects (specifically the YourHarry top read question). This to me is actually a pro-town trait. So in summary, Shady's fifth case point in his summary is most valid, and I could understand people voting Thrawn on that point alone. However, I don't feel any of the others really are enough, even combined, to be voting for Thrawn. I might go so far as to say that Thrawn and Och are more likely masons than scum, since even as a newbie scum it should be pretty obvious that tying each other's viewpoints together as closely as they have is suicidal. However, as masons, they would have no problem coming to a consensus on and aligning their views. In fact, this could be a great thing to do as they can double their influence on town. I love plurality lynch. It means I can keep my vote on Juhyt without dreading a no-lynch, who is still my strongest scum read. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
If it wasn't already obvious to you: waiting until the last minute to cast your vote is very anti-town. You're not going to give us any chance to assess your voting case arguments when you stall like this. Get it on the forum. As town, you shouldn't be afraid of being wrong. And if you're scum, don't worry. Do this again on day 2 and expect an FoS coming your way. @Mkfuba: You might have to settle for casting your vote now, even if your explanation is rushed. You only have ~5 1/2 hours before the deadline... | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
It's plurality lynch, meaning a majority isn't needed to get someone lynched. Vote your best scum read. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 17 2012 05:34 YourHarry wrote: Whether or not it's a plurality, what is the point of casting a vote on someone who is not going to get majority of the votes? No one has the vast majority of the votes right now. You have no way of knowing your best scum read won't gain enough support before the deadline... | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
You've been fairly quiet. Could you discuss your read on Thrawn in a little more detail? This is the first time you've discussed him sheeping, and I'd be interested to know where you've seen him do this. I wouldn't call everything he's said original, but from what I've seen his vote on Shady was made pretty independently. And what about him specifically makes you think he's town? | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Evidence of a shared QT: First, I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention the evidence that both Thrawn and Ochrow are sharing a QT. Shady has brought this up before, and so have I, but I don’t feel everyone has looked back on their filters to determine how obvious this is. Listed below, for your reference are the two posts that show this most clearly. Notice the timestamps, as they are identical. There is zero chance that one came in and later “copied” the other: On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote: My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: Show nested quote + On August 15 2012 10:10 Archrun wrote: As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence(which this policy should provided) and reason. On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS Archrun As per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Policy? A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so. Concerning the YH topic: 3 possibilities immediately come to mind: One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned. At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. Solarsail Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling. mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? Now look also at the nature of the posts. What is discussed is almost identical. Both talk about Solarsail, and both conclude that he is not currently suspicious. Both also conclude that YourHarry is town. This point should bring up red flags on everyone’s radars, as this is simply not the prevailing viewpoint of the thread at the time, and they both give pretty weak reasoning for their conclusion. Both also discuss policy lurker lynching. Here, Ochrow FoS’s Archrun (in the same post), and thrawn FoS’s Archrun about two hours later. What are the odds that that many different topics were discussed by two people randomly at the exact same time without the help of a QT? I’d say pretty much none. As I originally posted, though, I felt that two scum associating themselves this closely was nearly suicidal. I suspected them to be masons. But neither have come forward with such a claim, even as Thrawn was nearly lynched day one. Additionally, neither of them have been interested in scum-hunting, spending much of their energies with wishy-washy “I don’t know” posts on others’ reads and pursuing the lurker lynch of Archrun. I will lay this out in my posts against each candidate below: Case against Thrawn: So the underlying theme here is that none of these three is interested in scum-hunting. Let’s summarize Thrawn’s posting history, in chronological order: -Wastes a bunch of time discussing the possibility of an SK -dismisses case on solarsail as emotional response either town or scum could do -casts light suspicion on YourHarry -Summarizes stance on solarsail, magically decides YourHarry is now town, and starts “lurker lynch” policy -Tunnels Archrun -OMGUS votes Shady That pretty much sums up his play to date. The only real stances I’ve gotten from his play so far: -YourHarry is town because his mason case was “believable.” He has to date not said anything to address the scum behavior others have pointed out in YourHarry’s play. This is a weak claim with very little to back it up. I find it interesting that he doesn’t go so far as to determine Solar to be town by the same logic. Most players would say YourHarry is a neutral read by Thrawn’s logic, as believing YourHarry’s mason case was genuinely made does not in any way support that YourHarry’s case was made with a town motivation in the first place. He also has mentioned his FOS on YourHarry was hastily made, which is true. It didn’t really feel like he had any conviction behind it, and it feels like two scum trying to distance themselves. I originally said that he was thinking in binary. “If I can’t confirm YourHarry is scum, then he’s town.” But looking at how wishy-washy he’s been on SolarSail, this isn’t the case. This was a deliberate choice, and why I believe scum Thrawn is covering for scum YourHarry here. Regarding Ochrow: His posting history is much more straightforward, as he himself has been semi-lurky: -Take’s Thrawn’s same stances on YourHarry, SolarSail, and policy lurker lynching. -pursues Archrun aggressively on “lurker policy.” Tunnels him more after his weak case. -That’s pretty much it. What more can I say here? Ochrow is obviously not interested in active scum hunting. He has set out on a policy lurker lynch. Like Thrawn, he has declared YourHarry to have a “town feel” with little explanation. He goes after Archrun and tunnels him… Below is the quote, though, that condemns him as scum: On August 17 2012 05:54 Ochrow wrote: -snip- On Thrawn: I really can't get a read on Thrawn. To be honest when I first read Shady's post I almost instantly began to feel that Thrawn was scum but after reading his defense I do not think that he is. But I will say that I find him a bit too sheepish. It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded, so I feel that this is something we need to look out for because it does feel somewhat scummy. On the case against Thrawn and I: I feel like once again Shady is reading too much into things. As far as the combined case claiming that we are both scum and are working together goes it is based almost entirely off of the timing of our post and the fact that Thrawn copied what I said. However, saying that we are obviously working together makes no sense when it is based purely off of the fact that the second person, in this case Thrawn, merely rewords a public post that I made. I can understand why you would be a bit suspicious, but by your logic one scum could just go around copying and rewording the posts of every person in the game and would therefore have to be in secret contact with every single one of them. The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them. As for my fair and balanced posts or however it was that Shady described them, I simply have not been able to divine that much from what most people are saying, though I will admit to being a timid poster. But at the moment I don't feel I have solid reads on pretty much anyone and so the result of that is I try not to alienate people, though I understand why Shady would be suspicious of that because his goal seems to be to piss off everybody and alienate them all. On YourHarry: As far as the stuff from early on goes I believe his explanation in that he had a mason misread and I think that was it, and as I said before while he was posting very short messages he really didn't appear to have much to say outside of those short messages, but going by his posting history it looks like as soon as he started to get actual reads he began to post them. I feel that his swingyness is suspicious and that his posts haven't been great, particularly the case against GK, but I don't really get a scum read from him. -snip- As you can see, he claims that Thrawn “copies him.” This is literally impossible as their post that was similar was posted at the exact same time. In other words, Ochrow is lying. He also makes a few interesting points here about how YourHarry is still not scum, and also some wishy-washy stuff (that I have snipped out for clarity… I meant to put it back in but I have 8 mins to post this look at time stamp you can find the rest sorry guys…) about how he doesn’t think Shady is scum but wouldn’t mind voting him anyway. He also comments on a few lurkers, which is a pretty value-less thing that is easy for scum to do. In other words, he is not actively involved in the scum hunting. But let me say this again, as it’s the most damning evidence against Ochrow: OCHROW LIED TO US!!!!!!!!! There is no doubt in my mind at this point that both Ochrow and Thrawn are scum. They associated with each other far too closely to not have shared a QT. On top of that instead of coming clean about it (or just not saying anything), as I’d suspect masons would, they turn around and lie about it to try to cover it up! ##FoS: Thrawn ##FoS: Ochrow Now onto YourHarry: I have already said how wishy-washy he’s been with his voting. He will flash change vote people on a whim. His play is so sporadic (and imho terrible) that it’s hard to peg him as either scum or a really bad town. However, looking at his latest vote flip fiasco, I can safely say that he is probably the third scum. He switches to Shady with only a few minutes left in the day to go, after taking the same anti-Archrun stance that both Thrawn and Ochrow took. He goes on to discuss his reasoning for doing so.: On August 17 2012 14:11 YourHarry wrote: I have additional evidence why I think Thrawn is town, which confirm my scum read on Archrun. Minutes before the deadline the vote count was tied between Shady and Thrawn, with four votes each. Show nested quote + On August 17 2012 08:40 marvellosity wrote: Vote count, cowboys: ShadySands (4): thrawn2112, SolarSail, mkfuba07, Jhuyt thrawn2112 (4): ShadySands, Archrun, DarthPunk, Golbat Archrun (3): Stutters695. Ochrow, YourHarry Jhuyt (2): goodkarma, Z-Boson Shady Sands currently set to be lynched. 20 minutes until the deadline! Unless three scums were all already voting for ShadySands, if Thrawn is indeed scum, one of his scum partners would have tried to move his vote to ShadySands. While Shady was set to be lynched because he was the first player to receive 4 votes, it would have been still dangerous from scum's perspective because all it takes is one townie to switch his vote to Thrawn and the scum would be lynched. But this did not happen, which is consistent with Thrawn being town. Two possible scenarios that counter this argument are that: 1) Scums were simply not around to make last minute changes in this vote. This seems possible because it was pretty close to the deadline when I changed my vote from Shady to Archrun and Golbat placed his vote on Thrawn. This is not completely out of the question, but A) considering that scums still had one hour window to make the move and B) that scum Thrawn means that his scum partners would have been very well aware that Thrawn was a strong lynch candidate (based on discussion that happened hours prior to the deadline), I suspect that Tharwn's scum teammates would have been watching things closely. 2) Thrawn's scum partners were too hesitant to switch their votes, in fear that it would make them suspicious. This is possible, but maybe it would not have been too difficult to fabricate some wishy-washy with reasons for change in opinion. And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. But in summary, until I changed my vote from Archrun to Shady, which happened like 2 minutes before the deadline, the scums had some window of opportunity to switch their votes to Shady (unless all three were already voting for Shady) in order to provide a some protection against last minutes switch of votes to their scum partner Thrawn. This is not a fool-proof evidence, as there are possible exceptions listed above 1) and 2) but I think this should render additional evidence that Thrawn is town (and thus both Thrawn and Shady are town) which would confirm my suspicion that Archrun is attempting to benefit from mislynching two townies. So, in other words, he knows exactly how his vote change looks, and now he’s trying to do some “damage control” by being the first to bring it up. What YourHarry doesn’t mention here is how difficult it would be for mafia to come back from a day one lynch when they’ve connected themselves together so neatly. Securing the Shady lynch day one wasn’t “optional,” it was mandatory to secure any chance of a mafia victory. And if by YourHarry’s logic, wouldn’t it be a good thing if someone last minute switched? Because then we’d know for sure who one of our scum is. Especially when the only person you feel is “strong town” (Thrawn) isn’t on track to be lynched. I have no problem using YourHarry’s logic here, as it’s the first thing he’s said that makes sense to me. YourHarry switched his vote to Shady for the reasons he’s already highlighted. Because if Thrawn went down day one mafia’s winning chances would go down substantially. Mafia couldn’t afford Thrawn going down, so YourHarry last minute switched to secure the lynch. And looking at how Thrawn and Ochrow both think YourHarry has a “townie feel” when no one else does makes YourHarry stick out even more. So that sums up my case. I hope you all enjoyed it . If before now you were to tell me I could get all three scum pegged in one day like this, I would never have believed you. With this evidence, I am confident thrawn, Ochrow, and YourHarry are all but “confirmed scum.” GG. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: -snip- Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. Show nested quote + On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote: Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum. Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason . ##Vote: thrawn2112 And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow ##FoS: YourHarry I'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 18 2012 10:36 thrawn2112 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote: On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: -snip- Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote: Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum. Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason . ##Vote: thrawn2112 And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow ##FoS: YourHarry I'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. Did you read all of my post? You didn't mention anything about the arguments I made concerning mkfuba. I sure did. Don't think you're the first scum to strategically coordinate NK'ing someone to make yourself look less suspicious.: On August 18 2012 06:13 Ochrow wrote: At the moment I'm going to stick with my earlier suspicions and say that unless something very suspicious happens we should vote Archrun. But at the same time Thrawn's sheeping makes me suspicious of him, though I still have more of a townie read on him. So I think right now we are going to have to focus a lot on who the kills are tonight. Feels like a great post to set up your defense post the next day. There was almost enough votes to lynch you yesterday, so mkfuba was definitely a good strategic NK for scum to make for the reasons you've highlighted in your defense. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch? My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you. You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive. There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything. And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills. Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I highly encourage you to read my case, which was posted just before the official day 2 post. There is strong reason to suspect that Thrawn is scum. I'll tell you what I told YourHarry: There is really no reason to wait. If after looking at my case you still feel that Thrawn isn't scum, I encourage you to share your defense of him with us. The biggest problem I see with your post is that I've already highlighted who all of the scum are. A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote: A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler + (except the sk, if he does exist) And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 18 2012 15:04 thrawn2112 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 18 2012 14:52 goodkarma wrote: On August 18 2012 14:35 thrawn2112 wrote: On August 18 2012 14:29 goodkarma wrote: A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. Like stutters said, a scum role claiming vig when he doesn't know who the real vig is would be pretty bad play because the scum would be leaving himself open to a counter claim when he has no idea who the vig is. The problem with this logic is that no one knows if there's an sk + Show Spoiler + (except the sk, if he does exist) The scum player wouldn't know this. He would be gambling on there not being a vig. Show nested quote + And you felt it was necessary to inquire if there could be two vigis, a setup that though possible is fairly unlikely. It feels like you're already trying to find an escape route if you get caught up in your lie. I asked if there could be 2 vigs because I was planning on asking for a vig counter claim. Since there could be two I decided asking for a counter claim was a bad idea because if there is another vig and he counter claimed then I would look pretty bad. So then you would agree it's possible, that a scum player would make a vig role claim in your shoes? Honestly, we could argue to death your vigi. role claim, but it's only a waste of time. I want to hear what you have to say about the case points currently against you. Read up on my case on you, which is posted right before the day 2 post. And tell me where in that case I'm wrong about you. I'm tired of hearing role claims and WIFOM from you. The longer you stall in providing an actual defense, the guiltier you're looking. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I'm looking forward to your response. @Ochrow: You seem to have disappeared... Please look at my case post on you and explain your actions. I can't think of any town-motivated reason for why you lied to us. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I would like to thank you for not only providing a quality defense post, but also continuing on with the scumhunt. You have given me a lot to think about, and you can expect me to carefully consider your points in a follow-up post to your case I plan to write in the very near future. @Ochrow: You still haven't responded to my case post against you with any kind of analysis. It would be in your best interest to respond soon. @Z-Boson: You have some quality analysis of other people's posts (including my own) that you have spoilered. In the future, if you would kindly not spoiler them that would be great. People will look over the thread, and, some of them will be lazy and never see what you've said. And that really sucks because I feel what you have there is a significant contribution this thread could use right now. And: @everyone: I know that the Thrawn lynch has gathered quite a bit of support, but remember there is more than one scum. You have no reason to stop posting and pressuring your scum reads. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I know that now about half of us have voted for him, but consider this: as of now he has provided both a reasonable defense and his own scum reads. While some may feel he has made "scumslips" in his choice of words, remember that Shady was guilty of the same thing and he was town. What I'm looking for is a town motivation, which speaks far louder than any one "scumslip." "Scumlips," quite honestly, can be made by town or scum. When I look at Thrawn's most recent play today, he started off quite poorly. He made some WIFOM argument about why he would never kill Mkfuba as scum, and used Mkfuba's defense of him in place of any real defense of his own. However, since then, he has made a post that directly addresses everything I brought up about him in my case post. He claims that the post timing for both him and Ochrow I pointed out is merely coincidence. While I still find that a little hard to believe, I'm looking at his actions too. He has made constructive, pro-town posts even when facing the strong possibility of a lynch. He has presented his own case against YourHarry, and has encouraged others to present their own reasonings behind their posts and not sheep behind a lynch bandwaggon. And then there's the matter of the vigi claim. While I stand by what I've said about a vigi claim being just as plausible for a scum to make, and that there's no certain way of knowing if his claim is true outside of a lynch, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here. It is plausible he vigi killed Archrun. It would be consistent with his actions. An important component of my case against him is that I believe him and Ochrow have a shared QT, and that their views are eerily similar as though aligned via said QT. If either Ochrow or Thrawn flips red, it gives my "shared QT" case point that much more validity, but I'm not willing to send one possibly innocent player to death just to see if my case is right. First and foremost, we hunt scum, and thrawn's most recent actions feel significantly pro-town to me. As it is, they're both unflipped, and, imho this makes this case point much weaker, and my case in general not the "sure-fire thing" I claimed it to be at the time. I was super-excited with my findings at the time, as putting everything together you get a very neat theory going where everything seems to nicely fit together. But players often will post on similar things at the same time, and that's plausibly the case with Thrawn and Ochrow. However, I do still feel that Ochrow and Thrawn posted so much that was similar at the exact same time my case can't be completely disregarded, and these two individuals should be looked at with extra suspicion. I definitely got a little ahead of myself, but going forward, as always, I'm going to vote for the player who I feel has the strongest scum read. If my shared QT case is to be true, Ochrow is just as important a component. He is my focus for the time being. While Thrawn still could be scum, I can't help but feel that we could be losing a strong town presence if he is telling the truth with his vigi claim. With Ochrow, on the other hand, we would lose pretty much nothing (as I will be discussing shortly). For now: ##Unvote Thrawn Regarding Ochrow: I've already presented much of my case against him, and I'm still waiting for his response. But let's look past that for now, and assume he's just another player that we need to get a read on. Looking through his filter, the first thing you'll see is that it's rather sparse. The second thing you'll see is he hasn't really had a firm stance on anyone. He even tries to defend this.: On August 17 2012 05:54 Ochrow wrote: -snip- On the case against Thrawn and I: I feel like once again Shady is reading too much into things. As far as the combined case claiming that we are both scum and are working together goes it is based almost entirely off of the timing of our post and the fact that Thrawn copied what I said. However, saying that we are obviously working together makes no sense when it is based purely off of the fact that the second person, in this case Thrawn, merely rewords a public post that I made. I can understand why you would be a bit suspicious, but by your logic one scum could just go around copying and rewording the posts of every person in the game and would therefore have to be in secret contact with every single one of them. The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them. As for my fair and balanced posts or however it was that Shady described them, I simply have not been able to divine that much from what most people are saying, though I will admit to being a timid poster. But at the moment I don't feel I have solid reads on pretty much anyone and so the result of that is I try not to alienate people, though I understand why Shady would be suspicious of that because his goal seems to be to piss off everybody and alienate them all. -snip- Even if my shared QT case point doesn't hold water, looking at Ochrow's actions, he is distinctly scummy. He is pretty lurky, and hasn't stuck his neck out on any case argument, spending much of his efforts on a safe "policy lurker vote" against Archrun. His favorite stance on others is pretty much a wishy-washy "I don't know." My read on him is he's a lurky scum with no interest in actively participating in scum-hunting. This alone is enough merit to earn my vote. That his flip will provide valuable information on my shared QT case point is an added bonus. ##Vote: Ochrow | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 19 2012 00:30 YourHarry wrote: @Jhuyt I think I know who you are coming from. I admit I may have looked scummy, but please read This Post carefully Show nested quote + On August 18 2012 18:09 thrawn2112 wrote: FOS yourharry Yourharry has a long track record of posting one liners. One liners are likely to come from scum, as the scum can appear active and even appear to be scumhunting without saying anything of substance for the town to analyze. I have gone through his filter and quoted all his one liners. I tried not to include posts that shouldn't be relevant, such as asking mods questions and things like that. There are several posts I didn't include that were very short but at least were composed of more than a single sentence Do you think I specifically need those one liners to appear to be scum hunting and active? Really?? And flip-flopping of my votes is just reflection of my changing reads on people. Some of my suspicions could have come from gut feeling, but I think I can explain most of my flip flops. I will do it later if people ask me to. I will be back later. Hopefully we'd get some posts from the lurkers. Z-boson, Ochrow, and Solar need to post more. YourHarry, please explain your flip-flops. Thanks . | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Now that you're back, would you mind taking a few moments to share your read on Ochrow? You've been very vocal about others, but I've heard hardly anything about him from you. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 19 2012 13:24 YourHarry wrote: GK, do you still think Ochrow is scum with Thrawn and me? Yes, I still think it's entirely possible. I will not, however, say it's 100% certain as I implied in my original case post. Especially in your case, if Ochrow or Thrawn flip scum, my shared QT suspicions do not directly apply to you so I would say in that case you would be my third scum read. The biggest issue I have with your posting behavior right now is that you seem to make a vote or read with little explanation, and then explain away your actions later. It's bad play + Show Spoiler + (ironically, as both town and scum) You explain your stance on Thrawn, and why you feel he's town. Your case for Thrawn being town is weak, but at least you do explain it... The problem with drawing a "connection theory" between you, Thrawn, and Orchrow is that although it fits neatly, none of you have flipped. My original case right now is based on a lot of assumptions. This is why I've focused on further evidence of scummy behavior as a basis for my vote in day 2 with my original case as a starting point on who to pressure. You claim you have a town read on Ochrow. Unfortunately, at this point, that's not enough. You need to explain exactly why you think this. You seem to take pride in trusting your gut, but unfortunately we can't read your gut. It's your responsibility to translate what your gut tells you into some kind of logic you can put on paper. Otherwise, we have no idea where you're coming from. And if you're town, that's an easy way to get mislynched. Regarding Darthpunk's argument about you not pursuing Ochrow, it's true Ochrow has become quite the lurker but at the time there were far guiltier lurkers so I can understand how he didn't make your list. I do find it a little suspicious that you have completely disregarded him until being asked for your read, though. TL;DR: I'm going to need to reassess my reads on you tomorrow, but yes. Ochrow, Thrawn, and YourHarry are still on my suspects list. If I were to prioritize them right now it would go: 1) Ochrow 2) YourHarry 3) Thrawn If I find something when I reread filters tomorrow though, this could change. @Everyone who hasn't voted: You are acting against town's best interests by voting late. Your scum reads are valuable. By voting too late they can't be considered by the rest of us. Consider this, as I will be keeping a careful eye as to who is last-minute sheeping their votes. Now is the time for us to start consolidating our votes, and determining who of the accused would be the best lynch candidate. I will definitely be back before the voting deadline to reassess my reads, but for now I'm keeping my vote where it is. If Ochrow is to be modkilled, I will obviously change my vote. But even if he is to be replaced, I still feel I have a strong scum read on him. I know it's complete WIFOM, but if you look at the nonsense he posted to get temp-banned, he was definitely asking for it. Perhaps this was (as scum) out of disinterest in continuing this game as he felt he had no chance of winning. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 20 2012 00:37 Obvious.660 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 20 2012 00:17 thrawn2112 wrote: On August 20 2012 00:00 Obvious.660 wrote: Goodkarma is at the top of my suspects list right now. + Show Spoiler [the most ridiculous thing ever] + On August 18 2012 10:32 goodkarma wrote: Show nested quote + On August 18 2012 10:16 thrawn2112 wrote: -snip- Mkfuba made it very clear that he thought I was town, and he also voted against shady. According to the reasoning that darthpunk was using before the night post, shouldn't darthpunk also have thought mkfuba was scum? Nothing was said about mkfuba, and he was killed during the night cycle. Mkfuba wrote out the longest and strongest defense of me, and he is the one who got killed during the night. Why wasn't Archrun the one the mafia killed? Because I killed him with my 1 bullet received from my being Town Vigilante. It was completely reasonable for me to do that from a town thrawn perspective. I was already suspicious of Archrun because of his first few posts. I thought since before the lnych that there was a scum mission to get me lynched. Archrun was one of the first people to vote thrawn. Before the vote ended he stated that if shady is town, then thrawn should be lynched. After the lynch I began to focus on him, and he never replied to my posts. Killing him ended up being the wrong decision, but it was clearly in line with what my past reads on Archrun were. On August 18 2012 10:03 DarthPunk wrote: Your Harry made an entire case about you being town which was based on Archrun being scum. Shady had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Archrun had a scum read on you. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba07 had a scum read on Your Harry. Dead. Confirmed town. Mkfuba may have had a scum read on yourharry, but he VOTED for shady (who I voted for) and VERY STRONGLY defended me. He was killed, and flipped town. Why would I as scum thrawn kill mkfuba who was the strongest defender of me being town? Okay. So thrawn just claimed Vigilante. Guess what? That puts him in an even worse spot. Because if he were to look at my case against him, there is pretty strong evidence that him and Ochrow share a QT. Meaning that if they're not masons, they are scum. @thrawn: Thanks for clearing up that you're not a mason . ##Vote: thrawn2112 And, I've already said it once, but I'll say it again: ##FoS: Ochrow ##FoS: YourHarry I'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. I'm just trying to wrap my head around this post, so bear with me. GK is convinced that Thrawn and Ochrow (now me) are of the same alignment. If we're not mason buddies, then we're scum together, and one of those scums is a vigilante? Is anyone else seeing how this is the most ridiculous claim ever? If we are backing up to question ourselves: "Is Thrawn actually a vigilante?" then I have something to say regarding that. It's a lot easier to prove you're a vigilante if you make a believable breadcrumb that when revealed shows you haven't lied, but we're in a pickle as far as that's concerned because all we seem to have is a weak breadcrumb and Thrawn's word that he is a vig and spent his one shot last night. On top of that, GK is CERTAIN of my alignment as scum. It seems that he knows more about me than I do, and I suggest everyone take a good hard look at GK today and see if you can agree that he's being pretty scummy here. ##VOTE: goodkarma Are you saying that goodkarma thought that I was a vig and that I was scum? I didn't get that from gk's post. Actually gk seemed to completely distrust my vig claim. I don't think I understand your argument...could you explain it again? The short answer, since I have to leave for a few hours, is: What possible motivation is there for putting two people I am confident are town on the same list and claiming with absolute certainty that they are all scum. The only answer is: it comes from someone who knows their alignments. Scum motivation. Notice how a mislynch on me can be cast aside as "he was a lurker anyway" among the other points brought up against Ochrow. Notice how a mislynch on you can be cast aside as "his vig claim wasn't strong enough and his breadcrumb was weak so we had no reason to believe him anyway". Goodkarma has a history of policy talk that really gets the town no where, followed up by going after lurkers. @Obvious, I have made rather thorough posts regarding my case against you, and against the other two I suspect to be scum. I already have addressed the "certainty" I felt at the time, and so I will not repeat myself now. I'd recommend you discuss the actual case points I have against your predecessor (and by extension, you). The bolded part of your statement honestly makes little sense to me... First you're saying that because your predecessor was lurky you're an easy target. I do understand this, but first and foremost we scumhunt. You are my strongest scum read. Therefore I vote for you. If you were to look at my post history this game, you'd see I've aggressively pursued my scum suspects, and not all of them were "lurkers." As for my "lurker hunting history," perhaps you'd like to share your "meta read" on this, and why this makes me scum. I don't follow this at all. And then there's the "I will be gone for a few hours now." In other words, "I won't be able to follow up in this thread until after the voting deadline. K thx bye." This is a great way to distance yourself from further accusation, as who is going to bother accusing you when you're not going to be around? You're a replacement, and many here would be willing to give you a chance to explain Ochrow's actions. Living to see another day is scum's first priority, and this is a great move to achieve this. If you're going to discuss "meta reads" Darthpunk should agree with me that while you (as VT in NMM XXII) could be a bit emotional at times, you had your moments when you'd make good case points. However, this post isn't any kind of emotional outburst. Your case against me feels methodical. When you add to that how weak it is, and how you just jump out of the thread right after jumping in, I don't see you as the same Obvious I played with in XXII. I still feel your play is scum-motivated. Prove me wrong by mounting a meaningful defense against my case against you instead of only contributing a weak OMGUS vote. Until you do I'm keeping my vote on you. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
First I'd like to thank you for taking the time to re-affirm your read on Thrawn. As the deadline approaches, many have just voted, then afk-ed from the thread altogether. Okay, so here we go, for the last time. My "certainty" that Thrawn and the other two (Ochrow, YourHarry) were scum was tied partially to the shared scum QT case point I made, as well as how neatly they seemed to be supporting each other as "townies" against popular stances of the time. The problem with this case, which I had elevated to the point of "I'm certain," is that none of these players have flipped yet. However excited I was at the time that I had "solved the game," I overlooked the possibility of there being some coincidence in their stances, and by nature of them being different from the mainstream that I naturally became biased towards them. That's not to say that I have completely disregarded my original case, but it's not at the level of "100% certain" that I had originally believed it to be. At the very least, Thrawn directly disputed my case. Feel free to read his filter if this is a point of disbelief for you. I felt that he dealt with my case points as best he could if he truly was town. And instead of curling up in a defensive ball, he made his own case points against YourHarry, which I felt showed he was just as interested in scumhunting as showing his innocence (a pro-town trait). And as for the vigi claim, though as I've said before (now several times...) is not 100% confirmable outside of a flip, there is the possibility of giving him another day to see if the kill count goes down to one, which would at least be some evidence supporting his claim. If my shared QT case is to be believed, then Ochrow is also scum. I personally find him more scummy than Thrawn right now, and that is why I've voted for him. If you've read my filter you would know that Thrawn is still on my scum suspects list. I have not forgotten about him, but he's not my strongest scum read right now. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I looked to the latest votecount, and missed your vote. Jhuyt, too, should be discussed. As the only person on the list I haven't discussed on day 2, let me briefly share my thoughts. I did find Jhuyt scummy enough to vote for day 1, and I don't feel the reasons I originally had for voting him have really changed. And then there's the quote you brought up in your voting post: On August 20 2012 00:36 Jhuyt wrote: ok, I found something in Harry's filter, it isn't much but I thought it was kind of interesting. Show nested quote + On August 15 2012 12:48 YourHarry wrote: I will explain later, or maybe it will sort itself out. FOS Following people still have not posted: Golbat Jhuyt Z-BosoN Ochrow In this post he was very clear with whom had not yet posted, so I assume he made the effort to look through the filters and found us. later on he says this: Show nested quote + As to why I did not call out Ochrow: I was not even aware of it. How many times did I call lurkers out - I did not make sure that I got every single lurkers out. In fact, I thought in one of the list, I copied lurker list provided by previous poster and eliminated names who posted since then. I simply missed him for some reason... Here he claims that he did not try to find everybody, so he lied, or forgot about it, I'd say he lied. This is the problem with YourHarry, he makes posts that consist of nothing and he makes claims he immediatly retract. It doesn't matter if you're scum or town, this is just bad play on all parts and super anti-town. For this I'm going to vote for YourHarry ##Vote: YourHarry In other words, Jhuyt has chosen to prioritize lynching YourHarry even if he is only a bad town. So in one word, yes. I find him scummy. However, I never really had a strong scum read on him. My day one vote was a combination of a vote based on wishy-washy behavior and semi-lurking. Combined with this one "scumslip," I don't see enough there to convince me he's scummier than Obvious, as "scumslips" can be made by town or scum. Especially with Obvious so hesitant to present any kind of defense against my case posts against his predecessor (and by extension, him) or him. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
That's the gist of it, but I feel you're oversimplifying things a little. That Thrawn was content with a WIFOM defense early day two, in addition to some of his day one play (as I've already discussed), is enough to still suspect he's scum. But his most recent actions (his defense of my case against him and his most recent cases against others) coincide with what I'd expect from a townie, as instead of going completely on the defensive he's still actively pursuing scum suspects. Further, the vigi claim, though it cannot be 100% supported, can be at least partially supported by a one kill night. And obviously almost completely disproven by another two kill night + Show Spoiler + (there could be two vigis, but really, I highly doubt this) You're certainly entitled to be dissatisfied with what I've said, but I feel I've explained clearly my stances on my current scum suspects. I've had to repeat myself a few times now, so expect this time to be my last. You mention you will look into Darthpunk's case on YourHarry and the Thrawn's case on Jhuyt, but I would also appreciate your input on my case against Obvious/Ochrow. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 20 2012 06:14 Z-BosoN wrote: @goodkarma Ok, just so I can see if I understand you correctly. You still find both thrawn and obvious scum (will say obvious from now on), but you find Obvious more scummy than thrawn, since thrawn is actually contributing and bothering to defend himself (at least against your arguments), you will go for Obvious? | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 20 2012 06:44 Solarsail wrote: My current vote, thrawn. He did a very poor job of defending himself initially with the WIFOM and the claim (which if real is both highly convenient and misplaced), but then he's improved by responding to more accusations. I know 'lack of reading' is a general accusation against him but D1 I thought he was responding quite well, in full and with evidence, to all questions asked. So I would say it's just a D2 behaviour to be missing things a little. I agree with much of gk's posting minus the initial shared QT accusation because that is unlikely to have produced the coincidental posts with the same agenda. The lying to us, lurking, nonaggression and general avoidance of Ochrow/Obvious stands out a lot more (oh and the OMGUS vote) and YH has demonstrated some serious read errors and flip flops if he is indeed town. So my case against Thrawn is mostly by association with YH and Ochrow than directly. I will keep my vote on him because it is a combined one from gk's case and thrawn's individual behaviour. However /unlike/ GK I will not switch around as people's defences go up and down with each post. I will be around at the deadline but I don't plan to switch. The lurkers simply have not posted enough to make any case as strong as vs Thrawn or vs Obvious so I can't justify voting for them instead of those two. This is possibly by design; if so they are lucky that D1 was intense and D2 was focused on a single case to avoid attention. So, in other words, you're saying that Thrawn looks scummy by association with Obvious and YourHarry? I've already mentioned this before, but you should vote your strongest scum read. Voting because of association, when none of the suspects have actually flipped, can be dangerous. I've already described how this could cause bias, and it is one of the reasons for switching my vote. Ochrow just outright is a stronger scum read than Thrawn for me right now. I don't follow your logic when you say you won't switch your vote, when it seems you already have a stronger scum read on Ochrow/Obvious than on Thrawn. If your read is solely based off "association," then I would urge you to reconsider your vote. And regarding my vote switch, I'm not following a policy of "present your defense and I won't vote for you." But the fact that Ochrow, and now Obvious, have not presented a defense of any kind to the case points against him gives me a stronger scum read on him. His choice to afk from thread until after the vote tells me he's trying to buy enough time to survive today's lynch and make it to the next day, which is scum-motivated behavior. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I'm glad to see you're back. You're right in that you can't see Ochrow's game plan via telepathy. But you should still be able to help us see Ochrow's motivations from a town perspective (if you indeed are town). What's more, you haven't weighed in on either Thrawn or YourHarry, who are both under heavy suspicion and one of whom (Thrawn) is currently set to be lynched. It may seem unfair to be expected, as a replacement, to pick up exactly where your predecessor left off, but this is what I'm expecting of you nonetheless. Even after reading a few pages of case posts against the two top lynch candidates you should have some kind of read on them. So please share your impressions with us. And please share what you think Ochrow's motivations were for his play. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Thank you for your case! But a couple things: First, Shady is dead... Second, I urge you to look into if his play has a scum agenda than if his play has some inconsistencies. Otherwise, for all we know YourHarry is playing a really, really bad town game. Upon re-reading your post, you actually seem to have done a decent job of this. My current read on YourHarry: I also believe that YourHarry is scum. Some things that have stuck out specifically to me (outside of "associative reads"): I do find it a little suspicious he tunneled me so hard with such a weak case early game. Especially considering his early pre-game comments. I could see him, as scum, believing I'd be an easy target based off my admittedly weak performance in NMM XXIII. However, the biggest move that could be from a scum agenda I've seen from YourHarry so far is his last minute vote switch to Shady day one. Offing the most vocal town presence day one was very beneficial to the scum team. His views on Thrawn and Ochrow seem very suspect by association, but keep in mind none of these players have flipped yet. I don't think this was really a large motivating factor in your read, but still I felt it was worth mentioning. With all that being said, I'm going to take a quick reassessment of YourHarry's filter before the voting deadline (in other words, in the upcoming hour). | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Really? Instead of giving us your impressions your only reaction is to OMGUS the two people voting you? @YourHarry: As always, you should be voting your best read. Being scared of getting lynched isn't helping your case. That's a scum reaction. If you're really town, you still have 45 mins. to convince people to vote for your top scum read, and that's what you should be doing. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
What do you think of Obvious/Ochrow? I feel the case against Ochrow has already been well presented, but Obvious's OMGUS response so far instead of constructive contributions on current lynch candidates gives me a scum read on him (even if for a second I were to ignore Ochrow ever existed...). What are your thoughts and impressions on this? And who is your strongest scum read if it's not Thrawn? Golbat? I would be interested in knowing. And if you are a townie in danger of being mislynched it would benefit all of us to know your reads before you potentially die and any reads you haven't shared are lost forever. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
But still if you have any thoughts on Obvious I'd love to hear them. @Z-Boson: I've asked you before, but I'll ask you again.: Can you please share your current thoughts on the Obvious/Ochrow case. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
@YourHarry: Okay. I at least understand where you're coming from now (though I don't agree with you), so thank your for presenting your thoughts on Ochrow. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I'm quite upset about day 2. First thing's first: My "association case" can be thrown out the window. Some things to note: Like 90% of the conversation was dominated by only a small number of people. We have many lurkers among us right now, who are my current focus. Especially those who voted Thrawn at the beginning of the day, then afked all the way through the end. Along those lines: Regarding Golbat: This is a guy whose play I've seen. Darthpunk, I'd really like to hear your read on this guy. He's been playing much differently from how he played in XXII. At first I considered it an over-reaction to getting lynched day one in that game. But, there's quotes like this: On August 18 2012 15:59 Golbat wrote: -snip- Apologies. I didn't mean to come off as defensive, just that I'm not intentionally lurking, just not posting uselessly. in my last game I died before I could make a big contribution, and I just want to help catch a scum before I die this game. Now is the time to step it up I guess. He's like "please just keep me alive." I see scum-motivation in this statement. And what's been his "big contribution?" AFKing for the last day of the voting process, when his opinions and contributions could be used the most... So much for stepping up, I guess... ##FoS: Golbat I know people hate discussing suspects and such at night (my read, anyway, from how scarce discussion was on night one). But if our plan is to derp around all night, argue suspects for 24 hours the next day, then derp around until the last hour of the next, we may as well concede now. TL;DR: Town, get it the fuck together. Thanks. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Golbat Jhuyt Obvious/Ochrow I've already expressed my viewpoints on all three of these suspects. Golbat and Jhuyt are quite lurky, and have not been proactive about scumhunting. Obvious/Ochrow I'm not ready to discount. He hasn't been given much of a chance to establish himself as town, but his predecessor had quite the track record of not sticking his neck out. And so far Obvious is no different. In fact his first reaction to my request to provide some meaningful input on lynch suspects was to OMGUS me, followed by OMGUS-ing the other person who voted him (SolarSail)... And YourHarry isn't off my scum suspects list, but he isn't in the top three anymore (He'd be like #4). His playstyle is full of inconsistencies, but to his credit he made a legitimate effort to push his scum suspect even when there was a good chance of him being lynched. And he has at least made some effort to explain his behavior to us. His playstyle is so unpredictable it's incredibly hard to get a good read on him... I'm somewhat considering a policy YourHarry lynch Day 1 from now on when he's in the same game. + Show Spoiler + (And the sad thing is I'm not even kidding -_-) | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
-I do feel part (maybe even a very big part) of the Thrawn lynch falls on my shoulders, as I was the one who constructed the "association case" that was a large consideration by some of those who voted for him. But I will say this: I warned everyone several times that you should be voting your strongest read and not be voting by association of unflipped players alone. -Let's please not make "master lists" of every player and our read on them. Let's stick to top scum suspects please. Comprehensive lists shares all our impressions with scum, and can be easily exploited. -Tomorrow there will be (barring a lucky save): 5 town, 3 mafia. Therefore, vote consolidation will be imperative to a proper lynch. Assuming no busing, we need at least 4/5 townies to lynch a scum, and only if we get 4 votes first in a tie situation. Needless to say, this will be very difficult without crafting a good strategy going into tomorrow. I'm not sure how we should proceed to ensure we get the votes, and would like to hear others' suggestions on this point. And now what's going to be my most controversial point, a discussion on lurkers: -In an ideal world all scum would be loud, and we could read through and easily spot the inconsistencies in their play. But right now, I'm inclined to believe at least one scum is a lurker, so that's going to be the focus of my attention. All current lurkers had better speak up when pressured or I'm voting them. I don't really care at this point if they're town or not + Show Spoiler + (and I know this will be something people might angrily quote as a "scumslip") If they don't speak up I'm assuming they're scum. If they are town, and they're lynched, then our loss squarely falls on their shoulders. Part of being town is establishing you're town, and if you put no effort whatsoever into doing that you should as well give up on playing this game and find a replacement. Because we can't afford to deal with inactive townies now. We're likely going into MYLO, and everyone has to participate for us to have a chance at winning. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I'm mostly in agreement with DarthPunk's suspect list, with one notable exception (Obvious/Ochrow). | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
There is some meaningful discussion posted by Obvious on this page. But one post isn't enough for me to take him off my scum radar. And as far as lurkers go: Would you be willing to take the hardline stance of pressuring lurkers? And if they refuse to cooperate, lynching them? You may not like it. Honestly I don't either. But if you say, "Hey everyone. You should be ashamed of being inactive." There's no personal accountability in that message, and you can expect there will be no meaningful change in activity day 3. There are several lurkers right now, to the point where I strongly suspect we have inactive lurker scum in this game. The best way to get them, and any potential townie lurkers, active is to pressure them. The easiest way to pressure them is to vote them if they refuse to help us scumhunt. If you see other options, I'd be happy to hear them. But how I see it right now, I have no clear scum reads amongst the current active players, and amongst the lurkers is the only spot left to really look. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
First, the obvious. We pretty much need to establish a majority to lynch a scum today. The only way to really achieve this is with a unified town. Regarding the Plurality Vote System, a little after the fact: The plurality vote system was quite deceptive, and I feel I am in part to blame for the indecision we’ve had in establishing clear lynch candidates. Instead of having 3+ candidates we really needed to consolidate into two and treat it like a majority vote system. We’ve allowed scum to hide by more or less giving them a pass to vote whoever they want as long as they can give some wishy-washy reason why. For this reason, don’t expect to spot them from vote history. But not all hope is lost. I am pretty confident that the following two are scum: Jhyut: This guy is clearly a lurker. But take a moment to look at his views.: He clearly is not very interested in scumhunting. He pops up on rare occasion to make +1 comments and reaffirm other people’s cases without adding too much more of his own, with the possible exception of YourHarry who he’s been tunneling now for quite a while. So his reasoning for lynching YourHarry.: On August 18 2012 21:11 Jhuyt wrote: When I looked at the case GK made in this post I got the feeling that you might be scum, but I wasn't sure. When I couple that with your scumslip it makes more sense that he's right and therefore I think you're scum. The benefit of the doubt line was one that I was considering to cut out of the post because it doesn't add anything and I'm pretty sure I misused the expression. I should have said that while I do think you're scum I think that YH's behaviour is way scummier and so much more anti-town that a lynch on him is necessary so that we can have a clearer discussion. What really bothers me here is he expresses how he doesn’t even really care how YH flips because removing his “anti-town” behavior would be good for us even if he’s town. And this was the turn where we were confronting the possibility of MYLO… And what does he say of Thrawn, the other major lynch candidate?: On August 18 2012 21:11 Jhuyt wrote: When I looked at the case GK made in this post I got the feeling that you might be scum, but I wasn't sure. When I couple that with your scumslip it makes more sense that he's right and therefore I think you're scum. The benefit of the doubt line was one that I was considering to cut out of the post because it doesn't add anything and I'm pretty sure I misused the expression. I should have said that while I do think you're scum I think that YH's behaviour is way scummier and so much more anti-town that a lynch on him is necessary so that we can have a clearer discussion. Okay so my case makes him suspicious of Thrawn. But later that day: On August 20 2012 01:04 Jhuyt wrote: @Thrawn: Show nested quote + On August 17 2012 04:20 Jhuyt wrote: The lurkers before that post were gobalt, archrun, jhyut, ochrow, and stutters. Gobalt had accused me of being scummy, and had expressed belief in solar's innocence during the troll posts Jhyut made the comment about his outside experience with solar and he softly accused yh of being scummy Ochrow said he thought solar was town and that shady had read too much into solar's posts Stutters did not think that shady was right. Stuters didnt think that solar's post was intended as a soft accusaton of stutter's post Archrun avoided making any reads at all, he was the only lurker to do this and therefore he was my most suspected lurker. Ok, now I know your motivation for Archrun and reading the post by mkfuba07 I don't think you're as scummy anymore. There went my entire thought process of this day, yippie. The more I think of it the more I find that either Shady or Thrawn is scum. But since my basis of suspicion against Thrawn is basically gone I really can't vote for him. I think this post + Show Spoiler + On August 17 2012 03:30 mkfuba07 wrote: Trying to get into school is running me ragged, so this will be my only post for the moment. If anyone has specific questions they'd like me to answer, let me know so I can get to those as soon as possible (preferably before the lynch). Since Thrawn seems to be quite the target, I'm going to post my thoughts on him: 1) The SK posts seemed a bit suspicious, but when I read them I got a rather null read. I was obsing a game recently (my apologies for not knowing the exact game name) where it seemed like the entire first 24 hours was spent discussing what a theoretical Tracker should do if he even existed in the game. Asking a question of the more experienced players regarding SKs, and giving his own point of view, doesn't send off any major alarms in my head. He dropped the issue immediately after people said that they basically agreed with him, and he hasn't personally brought them up ever since. 2) Regarding his actions in the Solar issue, I tended to agree with him along the way. Show nested quote + This quote appears to summarize his thought process quite nicely, and since it was exactly the same as my thoughts I actually got a slight townie read after it. He was suspicious at the right times, and when something didn't make sense he questioned the reasoning of whoever raised that point.I'm not sure I'm getting why you think this is scummy, could you explain? His posts since that point are what caused me to be suspicious of him, but I never quite understood the reasoning behind your initial interrogation. 3) Show nested quote + This quote makes me lean townie as well. Though I have stated that I didn't agree with the original argument behind YH's reads on solar/GK, Thrawn again comes to the same conclusion as me: that the entire case comes down to that single "Sigh..." comment. Though I was (and still am) suspicious of YH after that case, Thrawn's disagreement over this doesn't reveal alignment to me. The way he's thinking things through is very similar to how I did during my only previous vanilla townie game.At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. 4) The whole Z-Boson/Ochrow situation also has me leaning town. During that entire situation, Thrawn makes efforts to alleviate the confusion that's been caused by Z-Boson's misread, when he could have just sat back and let the misunderstanding grow out of control (especially seeing how readily people in this game have been jumping on single posts to make full cases). With this, I have a firm townie read on Thrawn. 5) I don't see any real evidence of Thrawn and Ochrow coordinating their posts. The entire thing feels contrived to me. This makes me feel that this bandwagon that's started on Thrawn is at least partially supported by scums. This, in turn, gives me an even stronger townie read on Thrawn. 6) His subsequent suspicion of Shady is completely valid in my eyes. If Thrawn is town, then as he's pointed out, the only information he can be 100% sure of is his own alignment. Since he knows he's town, he has a right to be suspicious of someone so zealously pursuing lynching him. His vote isn't instantly OMGUS just because Shady voted for him before. Thrawn has actual reasons for being suspicious, and Shady hasn't, even in my eyes, done a good job of addressing them. Thrawn has been tunneled pretty hard for one of the first cases to have any significant reasoning behind it (the one against Archrun), and I find that incredibly suspicious. While most other players are making cases based on such huge stretches that I find it hard to believe they came to the conclusions they did, Thrawn is being hit hard for providing a case that was based entirely within the context of the thread itself. In short, I truly think that a lynch on Thrawn would be a mislynch. I have some reads on other people that I will try to get up as soon as possible, but I have to leave to take care of school issues right now, and don't want to post half-assed theories without being able to clarify them right away. I will say that I am likely to support a relative lurker lynch, especially given that most of the discussion has been about a player who I've made it clear I have pretty strong town reads on. ##Vote: Shady Sands I have to go for the next couple of hours so I won't be here for the conclusion of the day, see ya later. First he says how he has changed his read on me, and no longer thinks I am as scummy as he thought. Then he presents the idea that "either Shady or Thrawn is scum." He decides to vote for shady, because "Thrawn's reason to accuse Arch is enough for me too consider Shady as scum." I don't think that's a good reason for him to consider shady scum. My being town is not something town players would know, and that was the basis for why I voted on Shady. (in retrospect that was very poor play by me) Jhuyt says that because he believes my reason for accusing Archrun was good so that makes Shady scum, in other words he is saying "I am accepting thrawn's defense of himself therefore shady is scum." I don't think that is a conclusion a town player would or should make. I think a lot of other town players reached that conclusion as well, but after him making the "either thrawn scum of shady scum" suggestion it looks VERY scummy. Yep, it looks like your explanation of archrun was the only reason why I chose to vote for Shady, but you fail to notice that I thought his behaviour was a way for the mafia to play from what I've seen On August 15 2012 20:18 Jhuyt wrote: Hmm, you're right, I should try to be more helpful. On Solar: This is just how he is in general from what I've seen on TL, so I don't have anything there. On Shady: Shady tries to control the game, which is an act that I don't often see in normal townies, I've most often encountered it when a scum tries to make everybody think he's the sheriff. It is, however, a game of high risk and relies heavily on the actual sheriff being useless. He might be the sheriff as well, and this is why I think the first day is kinda silly, I don't know what to think solely based on his posts, they seem consistent. I still think that YourHarry is something scummy simply because his posting behavior is strange, on everybody else, I need more evidence before making up my mind. My case on you were mostly based on the fact that I just couldn't see why you wanted to lynch Arch. When I realised why you did it, I suddenly had two hot candidates, that being you and Shady, and one less hot, being YH. I believed your defense was strong enough for you to go to the second place on my list, and therefore I voted for Shady. As for the apology, I recognized it as a mistake and apologized for it, even if I didn't explicitly say it was a mistake. If you are to believe Juhyt here, it actually was Thrawn's views on Archrun he found scummy. Ironically, he just forgets about my case on Thrawn which he had earlier thought was good. This is an obvious scumslip by someone who can’t keep his story straight. A town would never just forget the reasons for voting someone like this. Combined with his semi-lurking, he is my favorite lynch candidate right now. If I survive the night expect him to pretty much instavote him when the day starts. This is a clear scum. There’s no need to hold off the vote on him. If you need something further to make you feel good about voting him, consider Thrawn, who now is 100% town, thought this guy was suspicious enough to vote for. [b]Golbat: Honestly, his hardcore lurking for the last 48 hours is a very strong scumtell. Outside of getting hit from a train, there’s no reason that he couldn’t have posted at least a one-liner saying why he’s busy. He really has no excuses at this point. But the benefit of waiting until next vote cycle is we can confirm if he was hit by a train. If he was he’ll be modkilled. Otherwise, he’s scum. He’s been tunneling Thrawn most the game, and hasn’t really discussed much of any kind of read on anyone else. On top of that, add that he clearly doesn’t care about scumhunting in this game. He admits in his own post to not really paying any attention in the first 24 hours of the game, and has mistaken names in at least one post. Also consider my suspicions a bit of a “meta-read.” While not by any means 100% reliable, Golbat as town showed a zeal for prodding other people in his only other game as town. He did get day one lynched, and I would expect more conservative play from a town Golbat. However, this just is too conservative for a “scared town.” If you are to look at his play, it better fits a first-time scum scared to say too much as he’s afraid of getting caught. Darthpunk, if you live through the night, please share your read here. You’ve seen his play before, and I’d expect you’d see where I’m coming from here… The Third Scum: I leave finding the third scum up to you. My strongest third scum read right now is still Ochrow/Obvious. I know some of you disagree, but I’ve already spelled out clearly my reasons why. I leave it to you to pressure him when the time comes. As for other candidates: this late in the game it’s going to be just as important for us to establish amongst ourselves who are town and trustworthy as it is to establish who is scum. I wouldn’t recommend just calling out who is town, as if you’re wrong you’re going to give the last scum a hiding place to hold out until winning the game. Just keep pressuring and trust your reads, and I feel you have a chance to find the third one. Where I’d suggest starting your search: Obvious (Obviously), and YourHarry. I leave the rest to you. Endgame Strategy: Okay, so here’s the situation. To get the majority we have to establish a town leader whose candidate we will get our votes behind. There’s no other way to guarantee the 4/5 town votes needed to lynch a scum at this point. Call it sheeping and hate it all you want, but we have to do this. It doesn’t by any means mean you should give up on scumhunting. Still make your cases and share your reads as normal. But come the second 24 hours of the day we all need to consolidate our votes behind said leader. With my flip, I am 100% confirmed town, so listen up. I have played with DarthPunk before, and I’ve seen his scum play. He has been 10 times more proactive than he was in that game about sharing scum reads and I am convinced he is legitimately searching for scum this time around. Add to that that he’s come independently to similar reads as myself, and I feel he is my strongest town read right now. So all of you get behind him as your leader and consolidate your vote under him. There is a small (note: slim) chance that he’s scum, but you’re going to have to live with that. To have a chance of winning town needs to consolidate its vote and this is the best way to do this. Come the next night, I leave it to Darthpunk to leave his successor in a will similar to this one should he also get NK’ed. So to sum it up, my recommendations: -Lynch Jhuyt day 3 -Hope Golbat gets modkilled. If he doesn’t vote Golbat day 4 -Day 5 pressure and vote your best scum read. If it’s still MYLO, no lynch to reach LYLO so you have one less lynch candidate to worry about and can increase your odds of getting the right guy. And last turn of the game, I’d recommend everyone leaves a last minute will. What you leave in it is up to you. I think maybe everyone even role-claiming might be a good idea as there’d be nothing to lose at that point and it would be extra information to get a read from. Five minutes to post this now… Forgive the formatting . | ||
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@Golbat: You have a lot of explaining to do for your lurking, so please start there. Also, if you would kindly explain this quote: On August 18 2012 15:59 Golbat wrote: Show nested quote + On August 18 2012 15:50 DarthPunk wrote: On August 18 2012 15:32 Golbat wrote: On August 18 2012 15:19 DarthPunk wrote: On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote: On August 18 2012 12:55 goodkarma wrote: @YourHarry: Any suggestions as to who this someone else is that we should lynch? My first thoughts are either Orchrow or you. You seem to be very interested in keeping thrawn alive as long as possible... I suggest you start making some meaningful suggestions as to who you feel looks scummier. And it would also be helpful if you commented on people's most recent cases against thrawn, Orchrow, and yourself instead of continuing to strive to keep Thrawn alive. There are situations here where the vigi still shouldn't claim. Like what if there is an sk, but the vigi hasn't used his shot yet? A vigi counter claim here would be terrible, as he could wind up rb'ed by scum and NK'ed before he can do anything. And if we wait, who's to say town doesn't get a successful medic save or rb? Or that scum or the sk (if he exists) doesn't just sit back and do nothing for one night? There's a few different ways that there could be an sk but fewer than two night kills. Waiting achieves nothing. My read, and the read of several of us here, is that thrawn is scum. It's time for him to go. Read through the case points against him, and show us why you feel he might be town. It's more productive than your WIFOM defense of thrawn you're presenting now. I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. You are lurking pretty hard buddy. I would also like to ask Ochrow, solarsail Z-Boson and Stutters to increase their contributions. I agree i'm lurking, but I feel that I have at least contributed well for my sparse filter. I made my case on thrawn, and cast my vote. When I see something worth discussing I mention it. I may not be living in the thread as hard as you, harry or thrawn, but at least I've contributed. What do you suggest I do to be less "lurky"? Make a shit case on someone in a misguided attempt to look active? Last game it got me lynched and cost town a vigi shot. I'll go over the thread again and see if anything catches my eye, but I don't really see a case I can make that hasn't already been made ATM. At the very least i'll prod some people in my next couple posts. Why so defensive? I understand that you got lynched for being over eager in XXII but your posting is markedly different than what I experienced there (although you were only alive for 24 hours so not much of a meta to read ) my post was not a personal attack but rather a call to all lurkers to contribute something. Apologies. I didn't mean to come off as defensive, just that I'm not intentionally lurking, just not posting uselessly. in my last game I died before I could make a big contribution, and I just want to help catch a scum before I die this game. Now is the time to step it up I guess. I've already explained what I felt was scummy about this, but in case you need a reminder: You seem more interested in staying alive right now than in actually scumhunting. "Not posting uselessly" is not an excuse for not posting at all. Even one one-line post explaining your absence would have been useful at this point, and you wouldn't even contribute that. You argue to not be lurking intentionally, but I would argue that yes, lurking for 48 hours is rather intentional. There's no way that you haven't thought up anything worthwhile in that time unless if between then and now you have forgotten altogether about this thread. And why would you do that if you want to "make a big contribution" that leads to the lynch of a scum? One more question: Why did you tunnel Thrawn so hard? ##Vote: Golbat | ||
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If you feel Obvious is the better lynch choice, lay clearly out why you feel that is so all of us can see it. As I mentioned in my post, we have some time to all make our cases and viewpoints known in the first 24 hours. The proposed "sheeping" part of things is for the sake of vote consolidation at the end of the vote cycle (the second 24 hours). | ||
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Can you explain to me exactly why Jyuht's death makes Golbat look any better? I don't follow that at all... You do realize that scum had zero time to react to my post before day post, right? And then I see a bunch of association based WIFOM case points made that, quite honestly, we don't need right now. Let's stick to case points based on scum-reads please. We don't need another Thrawn-like mislynch this turn. And regarding a "no-lynch:" this is a terrible idea. We have three scum to catch. I can't imagine that one less town is really going to raise our odds all that much. Further, if we mislynch and get a lucky save tonight (assuming there's a medic) we can still turn it around. We won't even have that if we wait... @Obvious: I haven't forgotten about you. If you want to establish yourself as town, you're going to have to work hard at presenting solid cases and providing a pro-town atmosphere. Your night post was a good start. However, if we mislynch this is (most likely) the end of the game. I need to hear more from you. | ||
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The first 24 hours of today we should be discussing scum reads. I expect EVERYONE to share their reads. | ||
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Yet again, this is WIFOM. Seriously, cut it out. What you posted had nothing to do with Golbat or Jhyut directly. If you want to post about Golbat or Jhyut, then post about something they actually said or did... I have absolutely no idea why you felt your latest post was worth mentioning. And yet again, where are these ideas coming from? Role claiming is a terrible idea. If you need to ask why, you badly need some coaching -_-. Instead of contributing anything of value, you add more WIFOM soft defense of Golbat, and introduce policy ideas to attempt to draw out people's roles... So I'd like to ask you: if you were me, how do you think you look right now? ##FoS: YourHarry | ||
goodkarma
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If masons were to claim, you're right. They would be two people that scum wouldn't hit. But if there's even one blue still, how exactly do you think that changes the odds of scum hitting a blue? I find everything about your obsession with pushing a role-claim to be scum-motivated. How, exactly do you expect it will be helpful when all the scum are obviously going to lie about their roles? It just gives scum more information to use in their night kills. | ||
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And lo and behold, YourHarry is spending more time lobbying for role-claims right now than he is for scum reads... Case on YourHarry incoming soon. | ||
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Sometimes the most obvious scum is the hardest to spot. YourHarry has a "meta" for sporadic and unpredictable play. But however strange, or different, or unpredictable his play is, if you were to look at the motivation behind his play, you can determine his alignment. With YourHarry, actions speak louder than words: -First, YourHarry is fond of withholding information from us. YourHarry starts the game by making a weak WIFOM case on me, claiming if I'm not a mason I'm scum. He withholds his read on me for a long time until pressured to provide it, and while here maybe you could argue he had some justification, this is a recurring theme. Over and over again he's done this. With this "mason case," with vote swapping history, with providing reads on certain people (most recently, Golbat). This behavior is clearly anti-town. Obviously withholding information would be advantageous for scum as it could make it harder for others to get a good read on him. Could a townie also do this? Maybe, but this is just the tip of the iceberg. -YourHarry is a fan of last-minute vote swapping. He has now twice last minute switched his vote to secure the mislynch of the top candidate. This behavior simply can't be ignored anymore. There is clear scum motivation here. -The use of WIFOM first, actual use of reasoning when pressured later. He already did that today with Golbat. He started today with soft defending him, and then decides he will actually "read his filter." I'll say that again: only after defending Golbat with WIFOM does he decide it's a good idea to read his filter. Then, finally, he decides to actually present a case which is in fact against Golbat. In other words, he's demonstrated a lack of interest in actually contributing meaningfully to scumhunting. -On top of this, today he has focused a large degree of effort on getting people to role claim. If my theory on scum's motive for the night kills is to be believed, YourHarry is trying to draw important town roles out of hiding as easy scum targets. There's loads of scum motivation to be seen behind YourHarry's actions, and there are several cases that have already been made against him. Yet somehow he seems to have avoided getting lynched. My biggest issue with lynching him, and why he hasn't been higher on my "scum reads," has been that his play is consistently bad, and it would be easy to mislynch a town YourHarry. But if you look at his actions, they fit a scum agenda. And finally there's the final vote count for day 2. I currently believe the Thrawn mislynch had heavy scum support. One reason scum would have for getting behind a candidate would be if one of their own also had strong support. If you look at the votes, and see where those who have established themselves as town have voted, I'm sure you'll agree the YourHarry lynch had some reputable town support behind it. And all of the current scum suspects are on the Thrawn mislynch.: Directly from the official end of day 2 post (minus the blue text): thrawn2112, as VisceraEyes, vigilante, was lynched! [spoiler=Final Vote Count] Final Vote Count: Thrawn2112 (5): Obvious.660 (1): goodkarma, YourHarry (3): DarthPunk, Jhuyt, Stutters695 goodkarma (0): Jhuyt (1): thrawn2112, YourHarry, right now you're my top scum read. ##Unvote ##Vote: YourHarry I encourage everyone to put together their reads, as there's still time for you to express your viewpoints before we consolidate our vote in the last 24 hours of the day. And obviously supporting or dissenting case points towards this case would be much appreciated. | ||
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But putting that aside, expect a post discussing his defense. It's looking like the best way to do this is to just directly post my response within his response. My understanding is that there are only red/green/blue colors available, and with green/blue are reserved for mod questions/mod responses respectively that only leaves red. All my responses are in red text. On August 22 2012 14:28 YourHarry wrote: My reply against GK's accusation of me: Show nested quote + On August 21 2012 17:59 goodkarma wrote: -First, YourHarry is fond of withholding information from us. YourHarry starts the game by making a weak WIFOM case on me, claiming if I'm not a mason I'm scum. He withholds his read on me for a long time until pressured to provide it, and while here maybe you could argue he had some justification, this is a recurring theme. Over and over again he's done this. With this "mason case," with vote swapping history, with providing reads on certain people (most recently, Golbat). This behavior is clearly anti-town. Obviously withholding information would be advantageous for scum as it could make it harder for others to get a good read on him. Could a townie also do this? Maybe, but this is just the tip of the iceberg. GK says that I am fond of withholding information. To restate GK's case in a more organized manner, it's this: GK admits that Harry may have had "maybe" acceptable reasoning for suspecting GK, but Harry has been withholding information, continuing to change his reads and swapping his votes through-out the game. This behavior is anti-town. And withholding information is advantageous for scums. (This is not a misrepresentation of GK's case. I wanted to organize the contents of his post, so it's easier to analyze) You may disagree with the reasoning for changing my reads, but not with the frequency with which I changed my reads. As I incorporate more information and re-analyze previous posts, I AM GOING to change reads, and therefore my votes. I have been wrong in my reads this game, but being wrong does not mean I am scum. And where did I say changing your reads is wrong? That's part of playing the game. In the context of my withholding information case point, you really should have addressed why it is you'd switch your votes with little explanation, and then only after being pressured explain them in further detail later. To be fair, GK does say that I am scummy because I base many of my cases on WIFOM. So if you think that my reasoning for my reads generally have been poor, wait a minute as I will address that soon. But GK's particular point above regarding my changing of reads, has no substance. Do scums change their reads and swap their votes more often than town? If you think so, I would argue that such belief is a common mis-perception. Scums want to survive. They want to avoid attention. They don't have to change their reads, if they think such change will buy much suspicion. At best, it is WIFOM. Again, as scum or town, you could change your vote several times. What makes it suspicious is that you take it so lightly, changing it without really trying to explain yourself in any detail. Maybe you claim this is your "meta," and we should just live with it. But I find this an easy way to excuse scum-motivated vote switches. I know that I, for one, have had to pressure you pretty hard to share your reasoning for your vote-switches and to present cases of substance and not WIFOM. People's reads change. And mine changed frequently (Also see my previous games, which links have been provided for. I am not saying that my changing my reads means I am town, just because I have done so in the past. But it should be taken as a proof that changing reads does not mean that Harry is scum). Again, if you're going to defend my case points, actually address them... You can argue that maybe I am trying to match my town meta as scum. But as town, I may inadvertently match my town meta from previous games. So aside from paranoia, this cannot be used to say I am scum for trying to match my previous town meta. TBH, meta isn't something I'm concerned with right now. I'm concerned with motivation. GK's second point: withholding information is advantageous for scums. This is wrong. Some information should be revealed, but some should not be. For example, a detective's investigation on a confirmed town or a confirmed scum would be advantageous for town if detective can somehow share such information without claiming. This is because scums already know who towns and scums are, so no additional is gained from scums' perspectives. But townies can use such information to limit and focus on which players to lynch. Didn't I list this as my first case point? Thanks for stating something obvious here. Okay, so tell me specifically, why is it then that not disclosing fully your reads when you vote switch is a good idea, from a town perspective? It's not just that you're "withholding" a specific piece of information, but you haven't been forthcoming with sharing reads all game, and what I'm thinking of here (if you really need an example...) is vote swap justification. But should a mason, in the beginning of the day, claim mason and reveal identity of his mason brother? Some information help town more than scums. Let's suppose that I was right about Solar and GK being mason brothers. Would it have been advantageous for town for me to reveal this information? No. The information I thought I had was going to benefit the scums more than the town. And because of that, I decided to not share the information I thought I had despite being repeatedly being accused for not sharing it. My stubbornness was based on my thinking that I was correct in knowing the mason alignment. It should be noted that it was only after it became apparent that Solar and GK were not mason brothers, that I decided to reveal this information, since this information was no longer useful to scums. You present a believable point here, in this was one specific example. The problem is this isn't the only place where you've withheld information. Related case against me previously brought up: it has been talked about whether scum Harry would have had an easier time identifying mason alignment than town Harry. It is true that scums have more information, and in general I would agree that scum Harry would have had an easier time. However, the style and the choice of words used by GK in his defense of Solar resulted in town Harry to deduce mason alignment. The explanation for this has been described a couple of times, but I can try to explain myself more clearly upon request. But this doesn't validate you as town, as you could have made a poor "mason read" as either scum or town. Again, what I'm more concerned with right now is if your play is scum motivated. And maybe the question should be asked: what is scum Harry's motivation behind instantly dismissing case against Solar in such an awkward and suspicious manner? Even if scum Harry wanted to defend scum Solar, would scum Harry have done it in such a ridiculous fashion? No. Says who? you have a reputation for the ridiculous. Again, I'm looking at if your play serves a scum motive. However, such action does make sense if town Harry belief that GK and Solar are mason buddies. I think whether I am town or scum, it is reasonable to be aware that such sudden change in suspicion would have looked scummy. Again, if you agree that scums want to avoid suspicion more than townies, then Harry's decision to express his read on Solar because Harry really thought Solar was town would make sense. Weak deduction? Maybe. Reading too much into the wording and the style in which GK defended Solar? Maybe. Scum motivation? No. This is just the tip, GK says. But I feel that I have defended against this tip of the iceberg. If there is any remaining suspicion, please address it. My change in voting pattern was based on my changing reads as I continued my analysis. And even GK admits some of them have acceptable reasoning behind them. And definitely, my decision to withhold the mason alignment information was pro-town. Show nested quote + On August 21 2012 17:59 goodkarma wrote: -YourHarry is a fan of last-minute vote swapping. He has now twice last minute switched his vote to secure the mislynch of the top candidate. This behavior simply can't be ignored anymore. There is clear scum motivation here. -The use of WIFOM first, actual use of reasoning when pressured later. He already did that today with Golbat. He started today with soft defending him, and then decides he will actually "read his filter." I'll say that again: only after defending Golbat with WIFOM does he decide it's a good idea to read his filter. Then, finally, he decides to actually present a case which is in fact against Golbat. In other words, he's demonstrated a lack of interest in actually contributing meaningfully to scumhunting. -On top of this, today he has focused a large degree of effort on getting people to role claim. If my theory on scum's motive for the night kills is to be believed, YourHarry is trying to draw important town roles out of hiding as easy scum targets. There's loads of scum motivation to be seen behind YourHarry's actions, and there are several cases that have already been made against him. Yet somehow he seems to have avoided getting lynched. My biggest issue with lynching him, and why he hasn't been higher on my "scum reads," has been that his play is consistently bad, and it would be easy to mislynch a town YourHarry. But if you look at his actions, they fit a scum agenda. Fan of last minute vote swapping. Definitely guilty of that. On day 1: 1) I had my vote on Shady. Was a choice between Thrawn and Shady. 2) I changed my vote to Archrun, who I felt confident about turning scum. 3) It was apparent that Archrun lynch was not going to happen. So I changed my vote to Shady, who I preferred over Thrawn. Swapped my votes, I did. BUT: What is scum motivation here?? Did Shady not flip town? Did Archrun not flip town? Did Thrawn not flip town? If Thrawn flipped scum, I may have to come up with some defense outlining why I thought Thrawn was town over Shady or why I thought Archrun was scum. BTW, I did this already, especially at one point when I was convinced Thrawn was scum. But what scum motivations even exist for scum Harry to choose town Archurn lynch over town Thrawn lynch? Or town Shady lynch over town Thrawn lynch? I would argue that above course of events, if anything, indicates that I am NOT scum. If scum was trying to save his scum partner, such changing vote could be scum motivated? There is good scum motivation to lynch Shady over Thrawn. Shady was establishing himself as a town leader, and having a high level of town coordination is detrimental to the scum team. I would have thought this would be obvious. Especially considering this scum-team seems to be afraid of a medic-type role, getting rid of Shady during the day would be the best choice. There is strong motive here to push this mislynch. Oh wait, I must have forgotten about the possibility that scum Harry just felt like goofing around for the heck of it. I cannot even begin to understand why my switching my votes can be interpreted as scum motivated. My reads change. I explained my reasons. If you disagree with my reasons, argue why you reasons sucked, but don't say that my change of vote was scum motivated. My WIFOM first, logical reasons later What can I say. When I read posts... when I see night kills... I try to analyze. And GK, you will say again and again and again my analysis is WIFOM. But technically, everything is. Scums tend to lurk. WIFOM, some townies lurk too! And scums can try not to lurk. Scums tend to be wishy washy. WIFOM! Some townies are unsure of their reads so they are wishy washy. Some scums will outline focused case and show commitment. Scums tend to want to avoid suspicion? They tend to have bad logic? All WIFOM!! No. Scumreads aren't inherantly WIFOM. You can use general guidelines as a basis for scum tells, with the understanding that scum will present themselves a little differently. That's not WIFOM. Making reads based off literally nothing is WIFOM. Example: On August 21 2012 13:24 YourHarry wrote: Good point on scums not having time to respond to your latest post. But there were common suspicions between Golbat and Jhyut that were posted hours before deadline: Z-boson's suspect list went: me, Jhyut, Golbat Darth's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Solar GK's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Obvious Maybe WIFOM. But to me, I still can't get my head around scum Golbat lynching town Jhyut, who seemed to be scum Golbat's only way out. Regards to no lynching, the only caveat for choosing to lynch today rather than tomorrow is the medic save. But if we decide to go ahead with our lynch today, I think claiming today is a good idea. We NEED a scum lynch today. And everyone claiming would make that much easier. Another way to look at it is what I'd like to introduce as the YourHarry rule: If after reading an argument your head starts to spin, it was probably WIFOM. But these are basically how we are taught to scum hunt. To be fair, I guess the key phrase is "tend to". Scums do tend to lurk overall, Scums do tend to be wishy washy, sheep easy cases and often have bad logic. But for these very same reasons, my analysis is no more WIFOM than the other cases you have presented before. Will scum Thrawn have killed Archurn? Possibly, but scums tend not to target the easy lynch - especially if such lynch will make the scum suspicious. Would scum Golbat decide to NK Jhyut? Maybe, but scums again tend to spare townies who have high chance of getting mislynched. [b]My attempt to role hunt/b] First, I agree with Darth's retraction for asking people to role claim. Blues should claim upon their discretion. I guess it was my mistake in thinking that role claims could help the town more than it could scum. Since we have to get today lynch correct, gathering as much information as possible could help us reduce the pool from which we need to draw the scum from. But I blue roles have more information than vanilla, so it should be up to their discretion. I acknowledge my mistake here. In regards to Stutter's claim that I was trying to role hunt throughout the whole game. Stutter, if you think my line of thinking that Gk and Solar are masons and making that public only after we found out that my theory was wrong... I explain this above. You cannot argue that there is scum motivation. Or if you are thinking about Thrawn's case... do you think it was Harry's scum agenda was to role hunt and suspect the blue breadcrumb in Thrawn and kill him? Yes, it makes perfect sense. I may have wondered about different roles, but there is no scum motivation here. I disagree as I still feel your roleclaim request was likely scum motivated. | ||
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There is one point (and only one) that YourHarry has brought up that I feel is legitimately worth mentioning, and that is voting history. If you are to look at mine, I have not put my vote behind a major lynch candidate on both voting days. This was a mistake on my part. I did not understand fully the implications of a plurality lynch setup until quite recently. I originally felt it just meant we could happily choose who we felt was the strongest candidate. But unfortunately, following this mentality it becomes very easy for scum to sway the vote into a mislynch. Had I recognized this earlier, I would have advocated that everyone chose between two major lynch candidates as general policy starting from day one. As such, we are nearing the end of the voting cycle, and we really need to consolidate our votes onto one candidate. I still feel the best way to do this is to have a leader whose choice all town places their votes on. I would like to ask DarthPunk some questions: @DarthPunk: Have your other scum reads changed since you reassessed everyone's filters? And why is SolarSail stronger than your other scum reads? I would agree that SolarSail hasn't stuck his neck out at all. But this is MYLO, and from what I've seen there are also townies in this category. What about SolarSail, specifically, makes him a "best read" from this category? Also, I would encourage you to look at who is voting your candidate and why, as perhaps that will help with assessing your reads on them. Specifically, Obvious comes to mind. First, he sheeps my vote on Golbat. Then, he sheeps your case on SolarSail... And this is shortly after he lists his "top scum suspects," which doesn't even include SolarSail at all. If town, SolarSail would be an easy mislynch from a scum perspective. If you believe me to be town, then how have four votes already been gained for your candidate? It could be all four town came together, but given how divided we've been I find this hard to believe. Just something to think about... I will be reassessing shortly my vote, and will be presenting my final read soon. My other current top suspect: Obvious. | ||
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Forgive my WIFOM there... The current vote pattern could mean nothing. Still reassessing reads. | ||
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Also note that with three scum left and three on each of our candidates, there is at least one scum behind at least one of our candidates. So I feel it's very likely at this point that not both of us are right. So are you so certain that SolarSail is guilty that you could visualize YourHarry being innocent? I see scum motivation behind YourHarry's actions, but I'm having trouble seeing any behind Solar's. Being sheepish and lurky are definitely suspicious traits, but they're not inherantly scummy ones. Unless you truly believe all three scum are lurkers (which honestly might be possible at this point), I still see YourHarry as the better candidate. Add to that how suspicious I still am of Golbat and Obvious, and I'm skeptical about getting behind SolarSail right now. | ||
goodkarma
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What I'm trying to get at, which may not be clear in my prior post, is that either town or scum can be sheepish and lurky. These behaviors are in fact scummy. | ||
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I would say that both myself and DarthPunk are the two most established townies at the moment. As such, one of us needs to consolidate on the other's candidate, and we need to have town get behind said candidate. I will be back in about a couple hours. Hopefully DarthPunk has responded to my latest post by then. | ||
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So you think scum is busing one of their own? | ||
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But if you feel both are scum how can your read on Solar be stronger when YourHarry clearly is playing with scum motivation in mind, and by nature of being a lurking sheep scum motivation can't be determined with Solar? | ||
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@DarthPunk | ||
goodkarma
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You warned Obvious ahead of time that you were making a case on SolarSail, so it would have been easy for Obvious to guess that SolarSail was the guy you planned on voting for. Further, from a scum perspective, making a case on a guy like SolarSail (super-sheeping lurker) is super-easy. So while it's great he took the initiative to put forward his own reads, I'm not ready to believe he's town. But we both agree that YourHarry is scum, so I'm wondering why it is we can't all vote for him today? YourHarry has had a lot to say about others, so upon flipping red there's definitely plenty of information to sift through that can be used to find the other two scum. But until then, "association-based" reads are going to be pretty unreliable. And if you look at SolarSail, who you advocate lynching today, his flip really doesn't provide any useful info, as all he's been doing is sheeping. | ||
goodkarma
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Allow me to elaborate a little: I see both possible town and scum motivation behind blending in like that. It's either a timid first-time townie that doesn't trust himself, or: A conservative scum afraid of getting caught. The difference in my reads between SolarSail and YourHarry is for YourHarry there is no plausible townie motivation for some of his play. | ||
goodkarma
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What I've been trying to say by "no scum motivation" is could be town-motivated or scum-motivated. Anyway, really tired now. Will check and reply to stuff in next 10 mins. Otherwise going to take a nap and be back in a couple hours. Sleep is long overdue... | ||
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And regarding lynch votes: So now you're saying you don't think YourHarry is scum? Even if Solar hasn't been discussed much for quite some time, lurkers are always easy lynch cases for scum to get behind. I've read and reread Solar's filter. It's so short it isn't that time-consuming to read, or reread for that matter. I see a lurker that acted like a troll in the beginning of day one, and has sheeped me for a pretty long time. I see anti-town play, but not play that could only have been made with scum motivation. | ||
goodkarma
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I will be back in a few hours. | ||
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I’ve been pretty busy scum-hunting as of late, so I haven’t really had much extra time to spare focusing on your specific accusations. Honestly, I didn’t feel they were substantial enough to warrant much of a response. But I will briefly address your case directly. First you are upset about me looking at voting history. Voting history indeed can be fickle evidence, but if you were to closely read what I wrote, instead of just making a general assumption on a scum being the other major candidate in the case of a mislynch, I was also seeing where the people with “town reads” had cast their votes. Voting history alone from days one and two, as I’ve already mentioned, will not be a strong argument in this current game. As far as Darthpunk’s “mass claim” support: Yes, I did find this a bit suspicious but I didn’t really grill DarthPunk on it at the time. If you are to look at DarthPunk’s actions up to this point, they fit those of a town much better than they would those of a scum. This one action wasn’t enough for me to change my read on him. And DarthPunk has since explained why he did this, and while the explanation could be considered a little weak I still find it believable. As for YourHarry, YourHarry brought this mass claim policy up out of nowhere, and then continuously pushes it. Only after it’s clear the idea won’t gain momentum does he go back on it as a “bad idea.” This is a very different circumstance. And as far as my case points, specifically: My case was looking moreso at motive. Other cases about YourHarry have focused more on his anti-town tendencies, which I’ve also touched upon. But that his actions would serve a scum agenda well, and are inconsistent with what a town would conceivably do, was the focus of my case. Regarding Z-Boson: I don’t find you inherently suspicious for making case points against me as DarthPunk might. However, I do find the timing of your case highly suspicious. If you look at the timing, it would seem you are going out of your way to try to invalidate the + Show Spoiler + (arguably) | ||
goodkarma
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As others have mentioned you've been sheeping me pretty hard. You're already under heavy suspicion, and you're not making yourself look innocent by "sharing reads" in name list form without any explanation whatsoever to back them up. What I want to see from you before the voting deadline is your first "case writeup" on you top three scum reads. Consolidating your vote under mine following the policy I suggested is one thing, but handwaving your own reads almost entirely is quite another. You've been pressured heavily, and still you are coming back with very little sign of independent thought. If you are in fact town, you should not be afraid to share your reads in better detail. Now is the time to defend yourself. | ||
goodkarma
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At this point, there unfortunately isn't the option of "going with your best read." I'm confident everyone should have a firm town read at this point on DarthPunk and/or myself. Therefore, all town needs to go with our reads at this point and consolidate their votes onto YourHarry. I would say we could argue and consolidate onto SolarSail, but with only 1 1/2 hours to the voting deadline, and given the activity of people in this game, I feel there's too large a risk of not securing the needed votes before the deadline. However much I wish we could continue the debate, 1 1/4 hours is cutting it too close. YourHarry is town's best option right now, so please vote accordingly. Scum can still last-minute switch, so as town you need to vote YourHarry at this point. You can't just "feel good" about a minority vote, thinking that your vote doesn't matter. Because right now, it still does, and not consolidating will easily lead to another mislynch. | ||
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You're assuming that all four of us are town, which is a very heavy assumption to be making at this point... We have to stick with YourHarry, as there is no longer the time needed to discuss and successfully vote switch. I still strongly feel we have the right candidate, and that with DarthPunk and myself on YourHarry scum is feeling forced to bus. TL;DR: One last time: we don't have the time to vote switch. | ||
goodkarma
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Serously though: here's the problem...: Only SolarSail and Z-Boson have "checked in" recently... I am not going to vote switch now. I am voting my best read still, and nothing has changed in the last hour to change that read. If we were to last minute vote switch, we needed to agree on everyone being here the last hour. This never happened, so no. For the last last time I'm not vote switching now. | ||
goodkarma
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I feel really fucking good right now. Well played YourHarry. Just know if you play like that as your town "meta" in the future I'm lynching you day one. YourHarry's flip provides a tremendous amount of information. Let's not waste any time using it to help us find the last two scum. | ||
goodkarma
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You describe a desire to be more active. You can start by sharing your reasoning behind your scum suspect list you provided last night. | ||
goodkarma
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I understand you need some sleep but you really need to consider the position you're in right now. You are among the top scum suspects for several of us here, so you should be doing everything in your power now to demonstrate how you are innocent. You have no problem rushing to defend yourself, but you still hesitate to provide any explanation for your scum reads. If you need a reminder, this post: On August 23 2012 02:04 Solarsail wrote: I've made my position clear already. Goodkarma is it and I'm voting for whoever he's voting for within reason because there's no way I could be a leader at this point and anything less than getting the whole town on side to vote for one person will mean last minute vote changes by mafia to kill someone for the win. Current read fwiw is Town: Goodkarma, Darthpunk, Z-boson No idea: Stutters Anti-town play: Golbat, Obvious, YourHarry Explain this ASAP. The longer you stall, the scummier you're looking. ##FOS: SolarSail | ||
goodkarma
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This is not Night of the Mutes. Everyone needs to step forward and present their reads well before the night is over. We still can win, but only if everyone participates. @Scum: Feel free not to participate, as that will make you easier to spot . | ||
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@Obvious: Explain to me why it is on day 3 you completely ignore my case on YourHarry, and jump from Golbat to Solarsail. And only when called out for it, you become the last to vote for YourHarry on day 3. And I would also like to know how SolarSail, who wasn't on your scum suspect list at all, becomes your top scum read, but only after DarthPunk tells you he's making a case on him. @Z-Boson: Explain to me why it is you felt it was so important to have a last-minute vote change at the end of day 3. It should be obvious that this looks like a desperate scum-motivated move, and yet you have failed to contribute anything at all after the day post. Lurking is the worst thing you could do for yourself right now. @Stutters: You are looking through filters right now... I fully expect you to write up a case on your top suspects soon. @SolarSail: On August 23 2012 09:24 Solarsail wrote: After you've finished going through the filters let me know if I've got to defend myself against anything, because tomorrow's gonna come down to me vs Obvious and I'd much rather be going through filters trying to find a third option, especially if Golbat somehow flips town and throws everything off. My play today was weak sheeping because I believed we had pretty much lost. I wasn't trying to put together a case of my own because it came down to whether goodkarma was right or not. Today I will be more active and more independent. Did I miss something? How did we narrow the scum suspects down to either Obvious or you? You need to explain this, after of course sharing your scum reads. We all know how important tonight is for town, so be warned: if you don't participate expect to be rewarded with an FOS and a likely vote. If you didn't know, failing to show your views right now is anti-town and serves only a scum agenda. In other words: There's no acceptable town-motivated bullshit excuse you can make up to get out of participating tonight without getting noticed. | ||
goodkarma
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Just one more question: Would you mind sharing your top two scum reads? | ||
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You're right this is a game. But as town the biggest part of this game is scumhunting, so you should agree that refusing to share your reads makes you look extra suspicious. I'm sorry, but what you've posted doesn't cut it. I want to see reasoning behind your reads, especially in the cases of: Z-Boson and Obvious. And as you're looking through Stutter's filter, you can post your read on him. | ||
goodkarma
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There is an abundance of scum motive for forcing a vote switch. We'll leave it at that for now... But right now I'm not just interested in your defense. Show us you're helping us scumhunt by sharing your current reads! | ||
goodkarma
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"Looking through filters," then afks. I expect more than this from you. Share your latest scum reads ASAP. | ||
goodkarma
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Thanks for your case write-up. Would you mind explaining why you think Golbat is likely town? And you make it clear you feel SolarSail is scum. Who do you think the second scum would be? | ||
goodkarma
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First thing's first: Obvious and DarthPunk both claimed RB day 3. There is one confirmed scum RB-er, but with two RB's that leaves a possible town RB. So here's my request: Town RB-er, block Z-Boson tonight. I will be describing my reasoning and reads in a bit, but for right now: just do it. Everyone should agree I am all but confirmed town right now, so please trust me on this. My reads and explanation will come in in a bit, but trust me when I say I have good reason to believe Z-Boson is scum. He's my top read right now. | ||
goodkarma
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Going through my scum-reads, one by one: DarthPunk: Town. I'm most confident in my read on him, to the point where I'd laugh pretty hard if he was scum as I would have been completely fooled. YourHarry fishing to see if him and I were masons strengthens my read. Stutters: Town read. Semi-lurker, tunnels YourHarry days 2 and 3, on two occasions now "running to store and checking filter" with no followup. My take on him is that it is pretty obvious scum wasn't ready to bus YourHarry on day 2 given how easy Thrawn was to lynch. So while as scum he could have been trying to distance himself from YourHarry I feel it's unlikely. Golbat: Mega-lurker, has all but disappeared, kind of wish he was modkilled tbh. Originally a town read based off YourHarry vote on day 3. However, I neglected to remember how strong of a position I was in on day 3, so YourHarry's early vote could have in fact been a bus. Everything I saw originally indicated that YourHarry was gearing for a mislynch, but I forgot YourHarry's weak soft-defense of Golbat based on a night kill. This is highly inconsistent with everything else he'd said about Golbat at that point, and leads me to believe it is actually possible YourHarry and Golbat are both scum. Additionally, YourHarry seems to have given Golbat an abundance of special attention (defending his weak case points against YourHarry, and a soft anti-lurker crusade starting even day one) for a good deal of the game which doesn't make any sense given the level of Golbat's activity. Add to that he had to look at Golbat's filter after I pressured him on day 3, which makes no sense given how hard he was pushing the case. + Show Spoiler + I have one more thing to add here, which will be included in a follow-up post shortly. Z-Boson and SolarSail: I do put these two together as I feel one or the other is likely scum, but not both. Z-Boson's scummy behavior is related to the last minute vote switch request. I don't feel I need to spend much time discussing how ridiculous this was. Further, he conveniently FOS's me on day 3 right after my vote switch from Golbat to YourHarry. Again, this felt pretty ridiculous considering how established I had made myself as town. I don't visualize a townie doing that, especially in MYLO when everyone had to consolidate to lynch a scum. Then later that day, there is YourHarry's FOS on Z-Boson, who he had previously ignored pretty much all game. Others had made weaker arguments against him than Z-Boson's (in fact Stutters made the same "meta"-argument if I recall...), and he would let them slide. I don't understand an FOS here. It feels like a scum trying to distance himself from his buddy before he dies. Now onto Solarsail: There is so little this guy has actually contributed, but "sheeping" isn't inherantly scum behavior. The refusal to share his reads definitely makes him look scummier though. The only reason, honestly, I would conclude he's town is Z-Boson's last minute vote switch play. Z-Boson was like "I think they're both scum," but then tries really hard for a last minute vote switch. I mean come on... A vote switch only makes sense for scum if SolarSail is town. And in that sense, it's either Z-Boson or SolarSail. And I feel Z-Boson's behavior is far scummier, to the point that between the two Z-Boson is scum. Add to that that pretty much everyone is okay with a SolarSail lynch right now, and I think SolarSail's town (albeit a terrible one). Obvious: Getting a read on Obvious is the hardest thing for me to do right now. He's content to push for one lynch candidate at a time without really sharing his reads on anyone else. And his history in the game has been incredibly short. If I am to look at his incredibly lurky predecessor, he posts outside this thread some really ridiculous stuff that obviously is going to get him banned (he even gets warned first before doing it again). Town was in a pretty weak position when this happened, and I can't imagine him ragequitting as scum when scum was in such a strong position. I believe he got banned to leave game without consequences, and that he did so as a frustrated townie too lazy to defend himself. Therefore, I believe Obvious is town right now. | ||
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Upon first asking Z-Boson for his reads: On August 24 2012 01:38 Z-BosoN wrote: [/b]-snip- Now, of course, he is in phase 3 He has assumed a VERY defensive position as soon as YH was lynched: Show nested quote + After you've finished going through the filters let me know if I've got to defend myself against anything, because tomorrow's gonna come down to me vs Obvious and I'd much rather be going through filters trying to find a third option, especially if Golbat somehow flips town and throws everything off. My play today was weak sheeping because I believed we had pretty much lost. I wasn't trying to put together a case of my own because it came down to whether goodkarma was right or not. Today I will be more active and more independent. No one had even said anything yet, and he assumes an exaggerated defensive stance. This sounds too much like a scum that is feeling cornered. What does he mean, by "if Golbat somehow flips town"? Is he expecting the nk to go on Golbat? Also, since I feel Golbat is most likely town, this could be a huge [u]scumslip -snip- But then he says: On August 24 2012 03:04 Z-BosoN wrote: @goodkarma I have no logical arguments for why I think Golbat is town. He doesn't care about the game, doesn't show any interest in posting, and the few posts that he has that I can analyze I deem are pretty neutral. He could just as well be scum or town, so let me correct myself: I have a neutral read on him, but think he is town because I feel Solar is scum and made a scumslip. Obvious has been under the radar, but he seems incredibly suspicious to me as well. This is clearly a scumslip. He is right that there is no logical argument to think that Golbat is town, but he decides to do it anyway. He then backs off his read and decides Golbat's a "neutral" read. Between this and the remainder of my case, it's pretty clear we've got our two remaining scum. | ||
goodkarma
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I wish you would have contributed more earlier, but I'm glad you're here. Keep it coming @Obvious: More analysis please! I spent a lot of time coming to my conclusions. You can do better than a 2-line response. I know what you're capable of! | ||
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I understand you have two games, but please contribute more when you have time, and preferably soon. The town could use the direction from the quality cases I know you can write. So in so many words, yes. | ||
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On August 24 2012 07:42 Z-BosoN wrote: You say you don't even need to explain why it makes me look suspicious. I say you do. Okay, here's why last minute vote switching is heavily scum motivated. As scum if you drive a mislynch you win. If Solar's town, scum would love to get the vote switched to him. And your motive for last minute switching is pretty poor. You describe YourHarry as a "strong scum read," yet you feel compelled to last minute switch your vote... Really? I have to explain this to you??? And if you can get just enough votes off YourHarry, with even one town on Solar you could have secured a lynch because of plurality rules. Taking advantage of a potentially afk townie and last minute switching, even would have been an option. There are so many ways scum could benefit from a last minute switch, and so few that town could (assuming you actually meant it when you said YourHarry was scum...) that this is a pretty ridiculous question. Ok, so it seems the MAIN thing that makes me scummy is my pressure to vote switch at the end. It's far from the main thing. There are several things I discuss in my case, including the timing of your FOS on me day 3 and YourHarry's FOS that makes most sense as a way to distance himself from you... Let me get this straight. At least one mafia member bussed YH. That much is for certain. You think that I, fearing for my partner, would decide to wait until the last minute to unvote him and go for Solar. WHY IN THE WORLD did I not go for solar as soon as it was tied up? Why in the world did I wait for it to be 5 votes to 1 on Solar for me to start acting? Because going for Solar that early on would make me look suspicious? As if I wouldn't think that sticking my neck out to attempt a very risky Solar lynch 1 hour and a half before nightfall is not? Okay so briefly let's get the timeline straight: 1) I vote YourHarry, 2) You FOS me, 3) Stutters votes YourHarry, 4) you vote YourHarry... Scum could and honestly probably should have bused the exact way that you did. With the YourHarry lynch gathering momentum it was better for scum to jump on it early than to just take it easy and let it happen. You would have looked even more suspicious getting on the bandwaggon late. You tried defending YourHarry at first, of course, by trying to undermine my leadership position by putting suspicion on me with an FOS. But when that wouldn't work, you HAD to get behind YourHarry as damage control. ALL THE PIECES FIT... And as for the Solar wagon, if Solar had gained momentum and you were around I'm certain you would have used that as a reason to jump on it. But the fact of the matter was there was me, and there was DarthPunk as pretty established town. If you went against either of us, you would have been under heavy suspicion, so when three vote momentum was gained on SolarSail and DarthPunk switched sides before you got back, you missed your "window of opportunity." Oh, and even better, you think that my plan, as scum, was to attack uncompromisingly my erratic and unpredictable partner all game long, bother making long and quoty posts on him, only to abruptly change my mind after I realize that all my work actually was gonna get him killed? You sure do like to make a point of this don't you? Haven't you mentioned this before in passing, without any real reason? On August 23 2012 07:58 Z-BosoN wrote: Well, let's see who is present. All of me, Obvious, you and Darthpunk are present. All of us still have one hour to switch. Are we sure we want to go through with YH? Emotions aside (I've been ranting against him and his posting all game, basically), the more I think about it, the more doubt I have. Especially considering how wishy-washy thrawn also was, and how much circumstantial evidence made him look guilty. It's as though you need us to know this... Scum can easily coordinate attacks on each other. In fact that you were so into attacking YourHarry without ever doing anything about it (like voting for him...) makes you look even more suspicious... This makes 0 sense to me. If I were scum and this was my plan, I would CERTAINLY join the Solar train as soon as it came out. It wouldn't give me 1/20th of the suspicion that my sticking my head out did (which, according to your theory, is generally what scums love to do), and would have a MUCH higher chance of working. Okay, already explained... But instead, you are naive and think that I was suddenly terrified of losing my partner in a already MYLO situation. Guys, don't be naive, this does not make the slightest of sense. The real scum is one who quietly voted for YourHarry without drawing up suspicion. Because guess what? One misslynch and the game still ends, we are not out of MYLO yet. Doing what I did, as scum, would seem like the stupidest shit anyone could do, it is completely unnecessary for a victory as scum right now. Do you HONESTLY think that is my brilliant plan? It's believable. Scum was close to the finish line. I find it completely plausible that scum would try to sway a mislynch on SolarSail to clinch the victory. If you said yes, then wow, I don't know what to say, you must be very biased. If you said "that's what he wants us to think", then your MAIN argument against lynching someone who has been heavy on the analysis and reads on players all game long is purely WIFOM. Also, your strategy for fishing evidence that is not there is pretty horrible. "Z-BosoN, please make your reads!" THen you skim it, nitpick one meaningless quote I didn't give the slightest shit to when I was writing, because that was not even close to the main point I was making, AND that was explained later, and throw the rest of it down the toilet. How bout you go back and read my post, unbiased, pretending it was one of your town reads that made it, and tell me why you think solar is town after a HUGE STASH of HARD EVIDENCE has been thrown in your way. In the case of Solar: Being a lurking, sheeping player (though definitely anti-town) is hardly a HUGE STASH of evidence, and could mean a townie or scum. You, on the other hand, have acted in such a way that would support a scum agenda... Also, please answer as logically and as precise as you can. I know your impulse is to go through this post and try to find something that "inequivocally" proves me scum and ignore the rest, but read it seriously and explain to me your EXACT reasoning as to why I'm most definitely scum. Point by point. I wasn't fishing for evidence. I legitimately wanted your reads. It was your chance to establish yourself as town... The quote I put in of yours regarding Golbat was cut out of your entire post, and so could be considered out of context. However, it remains that "Golbat is town because SolarSail is scum" is pretty weak reasoning. And that you also tried to be wishy-washy and go back on this instead of up-front explaining how you had a "town read" is pretty scummy behavior. It serves an agenda, as Golbat is even more guilty than SolarSail of lurking. So making him look less suspicious would serve the agenda of keeping him alive enough for a SolarSail lynch, which, if I am to trust my reads, would in fact be a mislynch and the end of the game. And let me upfront explain this too, as I'm sure it will at some point be brought up, regarding YourHarry's Golbat vote day 3: YourHarry softdefended Golbat and only made his vote after I pressured him. What's more, he called it a "pressure vote," meaning he had little conviction behind it... Look at the interactions between YourHarry and Golbat, as well as how he behaves when actually called out for defending Golbat day 3, and I'm confident you'll agree Golbat's likely the second scum. Unfortunately, due to time constraints that's all the detail I can go into right now, but the evidence is there if you look for it. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
If it wasn't clear before, if I do die, I endorse DarthPunk as the new leader with the responsibility of leading town. I encourage him to carefully look into my reads, but above all else to trust his own reads. And don't let anyone make you second guess yourself. To summarize my scum reads: I strongly believe that I have spotted the last two scum. They are: Z-Boson, Golbat | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Of course I would expect you to try to invalidate DP as town, just as you tried to invalidate me as town before YourHarry went down. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
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goodkarma
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
@Z-Boson: On August 24 2012 10:34 Z-BosoN wrote: As expected, you would be the first to answer this. Let's learn to count first. YourHarry, Obvious, and You. That requires one jailkeeper and two roleblockers. Unless you wish to claim roleblocker as well, lol. goodkarma jailed you. I roleblocked YourHarry. YourHarry roleblocked Obvious. Three. This makes zero sense. Feel free to ask host in-thread, but my understanding is this: If one role-blocker role-blocks another role-blocker that role-blocker's role-block doesn't happen. So in this case if you did role-block YourHarry, YourHarry couldn't have role-blocked Obvious. Which means there's a third role-blocker to make this believable. But there's also DarthPunk being role-blocked, which means there's actually a fourth role-blocker... In a mafia game of this size, I find it very hard to believe there's four role-blockers. So at this point I would say it's more likely either you or Obvious is lying... I look forward to your defense, but I'm not really buying it. Also, did you see what I wrote against you just before the start of today? I would highly recommend you take some time to defend yourself against what I wrote there. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 24 2012 12:13 Solarsail wrote: I was not informed of any roleblock last night. Thus Z-Boson is lying and I am forced to ##Vote Z-BosoN The plot thickens... SolarSail doesn't seem to agree with you. Any explanation??? | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
@Z-Boson: I'm not here to insta-condemn you. I'm here to carefully weigh the evidence against you and determine if your actions fit a scum agenda. Right now, I strongly believe they do. Instead of addressing my case points in the night post, you completely derail any discussion on you with a roleclaim and (what I consider to be) a weak case against DarthPunk. On top of that, your roleblocking claims make little sense. If you're truly town, you should stay in here and address the case points still standing against you. And you should be providing your scum reads. The absolute worst thing you can do for yourself is just sit there and say nothing. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
This is now (at least) the third time you've said something along the lines of "will analyze the thread," and then posted absolutely nothing. We need to hear much more from you. Discuss your impressions on Z-Boson and Golbat. That would be a good start... | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 24 2012 18:21 GMT
#1003
Just to summarize: So here is the biggest point of inconsistency in YourHarry's play that implicates Golbat as scum: At the start of day 3, YourHarry's soft defense of Golbat is below. Keep in mind, this is after busing Golbat hard on day 2 and even to some degree on day 1. Keeping in mind YourHarry's prior actions it doesn't make sense from a town perspective. This was definitely a scum-motivated move. Here's the quote: On August 21 2012 11:30 YourHarry wrote: EDBWOP: Golbat: He is lurking for sure, but Jhyut being targeted should make him less scummy. This is because after GK outlined his case on Jhyut being the top scum read and Golbat being the second person we should lynch, I cannot imagine scum team including Golbat to NK the top scum read to make it dangerous for Golbat to be lynched. I mean come on... It even explains why they chose to NK Jyuht... Golbat is clearly scum. Regarding Z-Boson: Definitely the second scum. Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about him. ##FoS: Z-Boson Regarding my vote: On August 24 2012 20:04 Golbat wrote: ##Vote Golbat still unwell. Best of luck town. They're both scum, but if Golbat's going to vote for himself I'm inclined to help him along. Since he's sick, he should be resting. Get better soon Golbat ##Vote: Golbat | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 24 2012 18:26 GMT
#1004
Backing up a little bit: Scratch out the "this is why they killed Jyuht" point, as that's a little too circumstantial to be certain. The rest of my case against Golbat still stands, though, and is more than enough to implicate him as scum. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 24 2012 18:55 GMT
#1006
On August 25 2012 03:35 Solarsail wrote: Considering what Keirathi said (if I am reading correctly, that roleblocks still go through even if the roleblocker himself is blocked), can anyone think of a scenario in which Z-boson could have roleblocked me that would mean I was NOT informed? Nope. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 24 2012 19:54 GMT
#1007
When last I checked, there's still two scum alive. We may have pegged them, but that doesn't mean town goes into mega-lurk mode... We are going down the last stretch of this game. Scum got clumsy when they were nearing victory. Let's please not do the same. We should be consolidating our vote early. I strongly recommend that everyone vote for Golbat. And if you disagree, you need to tell me why I'm wrong. Even if you do agree, you should supply a case against him and not a +1 vote. And remember, there's two scum. So while voting, share your second scum read and explain why. If we can stay active and keep the pressure on our scum suspects, I'm confident we have this. Please don't give up on contributing now that the tides have turned in our favor. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 25 2012 01:32 GMT
#1011
I wouldn't just focus at Golbat's filter. Focus on his interactions with YourHarry, as I feel it's pretty telling. YourHarry focuses a lot on Golbat, especially given how little he was contributing. And then goes on to soft defend him on Day 3. There are some pretty strong scum tells there if you look for them. Add to that that he just voted for himself, saying GL town. Let's think about this for a second: I would argue that town is in a very strong position right now. If he was town, why would he vote for himself? He would just be reducing his winning chances, which are strong at this point. He could have chosen to just vote anyone without explanation, and that would have been consistent with his most recent play. Instead, he chose to vote for himself. This is more consistent with a demoralized scum giving up than with a lazy townie. Golbat has become as lazy as you can get, popping up to vote without explanation to avoid a modkill. He could have effortlessly kept this up as town, but instead has decided to off himself. Golbat is scum. Everything fits. You can call him a lurker, but YourHarry's interactions with him and reluctance to vote him after bussing him make sense from a scum perspective, and don't make sense from a town perspective. His vote for himself is the same way. Another thought to keep in mind: The NK didn't go through, so it's safe to say we have at least one town roleblocker at this point. I highly doubt that Z-Boson is roleblocker, but if he actually is we would be loosing a valuable power role. I'm willing to lynch him next day cycle in the hopes that some other power role can confirm or deny that he is scum tomorrow. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 25 2012 01:36 GMT
#1012
We have to stay united as town this vote cycle. I would strongly recommend that you both reconsider. Z-Boson can get lynched tomorrow. I'm inclined to give our power roles a chance to confirm or deny he is scum. Golbat is an obvious scum at this point, and as town we need to consolidate our votes. So if he's second on your scum list I strongly urge you to reconsider your vote. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 25 2012 01:41 GMT
#1014
A thought, but also consider the lack of a NK took us out of MYLO, meaning that if we mislynch now we don't lose. So scum withholding a KP makes absolutely no sense. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 25 2012 05:12 GMT
#1022
Can you explain to me why, with Golbat as your second scum read, you can't vote for him this day cycle? We will be getting to Z-Boson tomorrow, but I'd like to play this game extra-safe. All of town should still unite behind one candidate, and I still strongly recommend that candidate be Golbat. Especially since, although very unlikely, there is a small (like abysmally small) possibility that Z-Boson could be telling the truth and we'd be losing a role-blocker. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 25 2012 05:13 GMT
#1023
Where are you? We need you to discuss both lynch candidates (Golbat and Z-Boson) ASAP. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 25 2012 05:16 GMT
#1024
I understand how you may be in the unique position of knowing 100% if Z-Boson is lying, but unfortunately from our perspective we don't know if it's him or you that is lying... So there is still a small (notice: small) chance that Z-Boson is innocent. As such, could you discuss my case on Golbat, and explain why you do or do not think he's scum? And if you do think he's scum, could you change your vote to Golbat? We will be getting to Z-Boson next day cycle. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 26 2012 05:29 GMT
#1060
I would like to thank everyone for getting behind the Golbat lynch . We have one scum left to track down. With either Z-Boson or SolarSail lying about an RB, and town able to afford a mislynch, I'm struggling to see how town can lose at this point. I don't advocate anyone to give up early, as that's no fun for town or scum. But at this point, unless someone can give me a scenario where town doesn't win, I'd say that it's in everyone's best interest if the following happens: @Remaining Scum (Z-Boson or SolarSail): This was a fun game full of ups and downs for both sides, and I would like to thank all of the scum this game for giving it their best to win. But at this point, there is no manner in which you can win. So I request you concede now. You will be saving us days of waiting for an inevitable outcome. Day Length Change: Should the remaining scum refuse, I would propose we change day length from 48 hours to 24. I don't feel we really have much more to discuss at this point. We get behind either a Z-Boson or SolarSail lynch tomorrow. And if we mislynch, we get behind the one we didn't lynch the next day. We can come to a consensus this night cycle on who to lynch by requesting an RB on a specific target and seeing what happens the next day, as DarthPunk proposes, or we could do it by flipping a coin... I really don't know how much it matters at this point, but I would appreciate everyone's input on this matter. Again, thank you all for not getting sloppy and dividing the vote so close to the end of the game. We've got this . | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 26 2012 07:10 GMT
#1068
I was jailer btw But I personally felt sharing your read of me was a mistake, as (normally) no townie would put a blue on the spot like that. What's more, it suggested you had extra information from knowledge of scum RBs. DarthPunk was acting pro-town enough the first two days that it made sense for scum to have RBed him for both days. That you could infer I jailed him as town felt possible, but like a bit of a stretch. I felt your biggest mistake was pushing hard to get YourHarry out of the lynch the last hour. This was completely unneccessary with how strong the scum team was positioned. You should have just let him go. And obviously I don't feel that role-claiming roleblocker when you have an alive townie that can tell us you're lying was a good idea. But with all that being said, I didn't catch on that you were scum until pretty late in the game, and I felt you played your role pretty well . GG I will post my thoughts on everyone else later tonight, but seeing as Z-Boson did have the right hunch. I was jailer. I just wanted to clear that up . And btw, the call to role-block Z-Boson.: I deliberately jailed Golbat instead after saying that . I felt pretty clever at that moment . Meta rock-paper-scissors lol. I actually made a few plays this game that were more deliberate than may have been apparent, including the Golbat vote switch onto YourHarry with the intention of extracting more information. If you're interested to see what I was thinking as the game progressed, and what I was scheming, I was pretty transparent with BlazingHand all game long in coaching QT. There's an abundance of insight there . Again planning to post a longer synopsis of my play (including my first two days of play that I am less proud of) and thoughts later. But in the meantime gg everyone I had a lot of fun . | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 26 2012 07:10 GMT
#1069
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 26 2012 09:27 GMT
#1087
On August 26 2012 18:16 DarthPunk wrote: Show nested quote + Highly speculative WIFOM point 1) My understanding is that neither the target nor myself is notified of a roleblock. So after night one when he claimed RB I thought it was mafia's doing. However, after night 2 he also claimed RB. As I understand it, this is only his second game, so it is entirely possible that he hasn't carefully read the differences in how RB-ing works and is in fact a blue. More specifically, a cop that isn't getting his night checks returned to him. This is highly speculative, and I feel DarthPunk is an intelligent player, and would have a good enough grasp on game mechanics to only claim RB if it was clearly from a RB-er. Honestly, I'm not exactly sure why I bring this up as I feel this is highly unlikely. From GK coaching QT. It seems as if because my Night action was blocked I got a role-block notification. The exact words were 'You were roleblocked' Yeah... The wording on my role PM confused me a bit. I spent half the game thinking my jail target wasn't notified of being role-blocked lol. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 27 2012 05:17 GMT
#1102
DarthPunk: It was a pleasure working with you to pull off a comeback town victory. I had a town read on you even starting from day one. I felt your scum game was strong, but the difference in your play here was night and day. You proactively scum-hunted. This in and of itself didn't guarantee you weren't scum, which is why I still constantly reassessed my read on you even as I buddied you. The biggest "town read" I got on you actually came from YourHarry before I voted him on day 3. He fished for whether we were masons, and after he flipped scum I was almost completely certain you were town. I respected that you stuck with your reads, but were willing to switch your vote to other people you felt were reasonably scum for the sake of consolidating town onto one candidate. I was stubborn and wouldn't budge on YourHarry (at least imo, for the right reasons). However, instead of getting frustrated with me and doing the same with your candidate, you reassessed the merits of both a SolarSail and YourHarry lynch and decided YourHarry was also reasonably scum and so were willing to consolidate your vote. This was, at least to me, the sign of a strong town player . Town may have decided to elect me as "chieftain," as Blazinghand put it, but without having you there to help support and back up my reads it would have been much harder to rally town together. This is one of the reasons, actually, why I tried my best to always persuade you toward my lynch candidates first and foremost, as the only other proactive scumhunting townie. Because I was afraid that with this town full of passive newbies, they might grow resentful having just one guy telling them what to do. Falling onto emotional sentiment definitely isn't constructive, or pro-town, but was a factor I felt I needed to account for. I wanted no chance of it messing up town's winning chances. Golbat: You lurked hard. Ironically, most of town decided to do the same. So, to your credit, of all three scum you probably blended in the most... It may have worked this game to some degree, but I would sincerely hope that you can be more proactive in both your scum and town play in the future than you were here. One other point to note: Never Give Up. It's not over until it's over. When you voted yourself, it was pretty obvious you had given up. I admit it would have been incredibly difficult to come back from your position at that point. But if you decide to stop trying when you're in a tough position like that you'll lose 100% of the time. The same can't be said if you do try. I mean, look at town. We came back from 3 scum + MYLO to win, so don't ever discount yourself as having lost until you actually have... But I would like to thank your for self-voting, as it gave me a great opportunity to vote you without needing to roleclaim. Archrun: I wish I had more I could tell you, but you didn't really live all that long to get into the groove of how this game is played. Your case against Jyuht was incredibly weak but tbh I don't feel it was enough to make you worth getting vigi shot over. At least not for lurker reasons, when at that point in the game there were people who hadn't really even made cases at all. But if you should have learned anything it's that being mega-lurky for the beginning day+ of the game is a good way of getting mislynched or vigi killed, so please don't do it in the future... thrawn: I had a scum read on you early on based off my rather terribly constructed association case. But your vigi role-claim combined with your persistence in continuing to scum-hunt convinced me you were probably town, and not a good lynch target. Scum considered me "soft towards pro-town behavior" after this read on you. But honestly, just the fact that your claimed vigi kill made sense in the context of your actions the prior day, and that there was no vigi counterclaim, was enough for me to postpone considering you as a lynch candidate for the day. I strongly regret I didn't consolidate my vote onto the strongest counter-wagon of the time (YourHarry), as my vote for Ochrow/Obvious did absolutely nothing to help save you. For that, I am sorry. Jyuht: You lurked incredibly hard all the way until your death. It's possible I could have mislynched you in MYLO had you not been NK'ed... But please don't get discouraged. I encourage you to consider this game an opportunity to improve your future play. SolarSail: Emotional outbursts and early game trolling are bad... Refusing to provide scum reads as town is the equivalent of refusing to play the game. I wish you the best in the future, but you're going to need to step up your gameplay. These newbie games are a great opportunity, and I would highly encourage you to ask for the help of the newbie coach if you're struggling. Shady Sands: Imo, town was pretty ridiculous in outing their most vocal player day one. Just as with Thrawn day 2, I should have consolidated my vote on the Thrawn counter-wagon on day one. I'm sorry I didn't do more to save you . Z-Boson: I've already discussed the scum mistakes I feel you made, but I would like to say that of the three scum I feel your gameplay was strongest. Well played, especially for your first game . Your scum play is far better than mine is atm, and honestly I'm a little jealous . Stutters: You had a few strong analytical posts, but spent the vast majority of your time lurking. And said like three times: "I'm going to check the filters and go to the store," with zero follow-up. -_- Maybe I'm being more harsh on you than a few of the other "lurkers" here. But it's because I really felt that you could have used your analytical abilities to provide town some badly needed help. Instead, after YourHarry was lynched, your play fizzled out into pretty much nothing. You have explained why you are busy. However, I hope you have the time in the future to play a strong game from start to finish. Honestly, in the future if you don't have the time you should probably get a replacement. Obvious: I don't understand what prompted the emotional OMGUS on me and SolarSail when you had first replaced. But that being said, I am glad to have had the chance to play with you again, and to work together on the winning (town) team . As far as being a replacement goes, I can only imagine how tough it is to try to catch up on thirty pages of content and make a vote in the span of a few hours. I can understand how it would be hard for you to be as proactive in developing cases as I may have expected you to be when you first got in. Mkfuba: Nk'ed night one, and your play at the time didn't really feel too strange or scummy to me. You kind of died before I ever had much of a read on you . YourHarry: We had some pretty rough disputes throughout the game. You heavily relied on hiding behind your "meta," but when I saw that a scum agenda best fit your actions I was able to sort through all the WIFOM and get you to the noose. I don't know if it's justified to be critical of your playstyle, as you seemed to be able to stay alive much longer than the one time I've played scum (lynched day one lol). But I still strongly feel that having both an anti-town scum and anti-town town meta is a good way of reducing town's winning chances when you actually role town. I saw from your much better-developed case against me later on that you can make some reasonable arguments when you choose to. It leads me to believe your general playstyle is entirely deliberate, and can be changed to be more pro-town. As such, I am dead serious about policy lynching you day one if you don't agree to help provide a pro-town atmosphere if we play again in the future. I won't let you hide behind your "meta" again. And another word of advice is to be extra careful what you do as scum. Without your soft defense of Golbat, it would have been much more difficult for me to spot him. Golbat on his own was looking scummy for his lurking, but on that premise so was most of the rest of town. Your play was the biggest factor that gave him away. Your FoS on Z-Boson was also out of place, and helped me to spot him as scum. Just something to think about for your next game . | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 27 2012 06:32 GMT
#1108
Your Questions are in quotations, and my responses are in italics. "@Everyone. Isn't practically everything WFIOM, outside blue role investigations? " No. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM "@GK I thought my defending Golbat would be along the lines of my meta. It's WIFOM, but I thought scum Golbat would have hard time making the Jhyut night kill. Disagree? Also I defended Thrawn using the exactly the same logic. Do you remember? Thrawn flipped town, so I thought my defense of Golbat was almost called for." The difference between Golbat and Thrawn is that you accuse Golbat pretty hard, and gave him quite a lot of attention considering his lurker-status. Then, you turn around and soft defended him... This was really not at all like Thrawn, who you soft defended first and persecute later. When you have suspicions of someone being scum, generally you don't discount them and forget. The same can't really be said of "town reads," which often are more fickle. "Oh one more thing. I forgot to ask: What did you think was my scum motivation for choosing Archrun lynch over Shady lynch on Day 1." You temporarily voted Archrun, but your final vote was on Shady day one. You can vote switch all you want, and I will be accordingly suspicious if you don't justify why. But who you voted at the end of the day is especially important. That you switched onto Shady last-minute felt scum-motivated, but really why do I need to repeat myself here? I have a filter that discusses the same content in it... "As for FOSing Z-boson, his accusation of me playing the sole meta game and thus Jhyut NK means I am scum... I thought that was a FOS worthy post indeed." Yes, you FoS'ed Z-Boson, but why didn't you also FoS stutters for making arguments related to meta? You're right that in the case of Z-Boson you didn't implicate him as scum, but it was something that made me a little more suspicious of him. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 27 2012 06:56 GMT
#1112
On August 27 2012 15:01 YourHarry wrote: As for playing my meta, I think it's because I actually don't know how to scum hunt. Period. To me everything is WIFOM. I could try to post in a style that would be more acceptable and in line with how other people on this forum think, but I would be lying to myself when I make cases. Oh and I almost forgot. You did an excellent job, GK. It was super impressive. Tbh, I was kind of in the same boat in many ways until day 3 of this game. My philosophy on scumhunting my last two games was that there's these "scumtells" that you can catch scum with. Scum like to lie. They love to flip-flop on votes. They love to be wishy-washy. If you find a good scumslip, you've found your scum... etc. etc. But really the way that I used to find all three of you had very little to do with your wishy-washy stances or flip-floppy votes. For each of you, I asked myself if your actions served a scum agenda. I feel the most telling example this game was with Z-Boson. While I feel his scum play in general was strong, he definitely gave himself away with his last-hour vote switch proposal. As town, when would you ever say, "I think Solar and YourHarry are both scum, but we absolutely must lynch Solar first. Switch your votes now!!!" Doesn't that sound a bit ridiculous? But from a scum perspective it makes perfect sense. Z-Boson is really trying to keep YourHarry from getting lynched and clinch the scum win. And that is the premise for scumhunting I'm taking moving forward. You, or anyone else for that matter, can pile on all the WIFOM you want. But actions speak far louder than words. Is the story between players A and B consistent, or are tensions between them clearly artificially constructed? What purpose does this proposed policy serve from a town or scum perspective? etc. I've gone from looking at "scum tells," that town or scum alike can make. And gone into looking for scum motivation in what a player writes or does. I have Blazinghand's wonderful coaching to thank for that. It may be general advice, but it is priceless in getting the right foot forward in finding scum in this game. | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 27 2012 06:56 GMT
#1113
Need to type faster... | ||
goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
August 27 2012 07:26 GMT
#1119
"Initial defense followed by later accusation vs. initial accusation followed by later defense. There is a difference. I guess this is a valid point, under my new understanding of Wine That May Be Harder to Poison. But I don't think it should have been too significant of a tell - otherwise, I could simply start out defending a townie then accuse the townie, before my scum flip to incriminate the player." I'm glad you understand now... You're right that a read like this could be craftily exploited if you're aware of it. However, in a newbie game I really didn't think that far ahead meta-wise. From a town perspective, suddenly soft defending someone you've accused so much makes little sense. And that's as far as I went with it. It may not have been entirely conscious on your part, but also you paid a lot more attention to Golbat than to others in the lurker category. So it was really a combination of the two (soft defense, after lots of attention) that made him look suspicious. And by the way: If you really intend to "out-meta" a read like this by doing this even as town you can probably expect getting mislynched . Honestly, regarding your votes on Archrun and Shady: You were vote switching so much on day one I really didn't take anything except for your final vote all that seriously. I admit that may have been a mistake on my part, but there you have it... | ||
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