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MrMedic, Zorkmid: Where are you guys?
We need everyone to be contributing. Can you comment on the current cases please?
Also aRyuujin, alan, Obvious, and Prom: you guys have overall been pretty quiet comparatively as well. At least you guys have posted cases, but you really need to step up your amount of input. EVERYONE needs to be giving reads as much as possible. Being wrong isn't a crime, but sitting back and letting others lead the discussion just means you have less "town power" and people are going to be more hesitant to listen to what you have to say when you do randomly decide to chime in.
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Its 2:20 a.m for me and the deadline would be at 5.00 a.m. Golbat and Shady are the currently more likely to get lynched next to a no-lynch, so I kept re-reading Golbat and Shady's filter. I am going to sleep soon so I really want to make the correct call.
@Shady
While your defence sounded solid, it comes to do whether if we believes if you are lying about the statistics or not. While I don't find it hard to believe, the problem I had with your post is that you believe random lynch would benefit the town better than actual scum-hunting-based lynch.
+ Show Spoiler +So pretty much, I looked through about 20 mafia games and found not a single night one lynch resulting in a red kill. This suggests one thing:
Day 1 scumhunting actually has a lower success rate than a random day 1 lynch. If the lynches had been truly random, then maybe 20-30% of the games should have had day 1 lynches turn up red, but none of them did.
Proof check edit: I re-read and realized you could be saying that statistically speaking you should be able to find more successful case than none. With this explanation, given that you are not lying, it makes me feel very bad to leave my vote on you right now.
Also, while I only noticed when Ange brought it up, he has pointed out that contradiction you made. Although I don't believe contradictions were scum tells, I would like you to explain why Golbat and Mordanis can't both be town? The only conclusion I could draw from this is that they (appears to) not trust each other.
@Golbat
Re-reading his filters makes me worry. While I still believe he has the least chance to flip scum as compare to Shady or Mordanis, the cases he writes were mainly already raised by a previous person. (Other than Mordanis, which he retracted) Also, there are little follow up to the cases he post. It seems like he thinks it is not important, especially when he kept reminding us that he is a newbie previously. (Which he stepped away from now) No matter what side he plays I must acknowledge that at best it is anti-town.
However, loosely quoting someone: "The goal of lynching is to get scum", I am still in favor of Shady lynch instead of Golbat for I believe the former has a much higher chance to flip scum, in other words, I am keeping my vote, unless it is really necessary for me to switch to make a lynch happen, but I will probably be sleeping as the vote is tally. I urge all who has not voted (or already voted but not into the potential lynch target) to reconsider their votes aiming for a lynch.
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@alan:
While you are still awake, would you please tell me your read on goodkarma?
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On July 29 2012 03:55 alan133 wrote:
While your defence sounded solid, it comes to do whether if we believes if you are lying about the statistics or not.
What could he possibly be lying about? He said specifically that he did a thread title search for TL Mafia. Do the search yourself and compare the results.
I'll admit he used a less-than-optimal set of sample data, since the TL Mafia games are generally 25-30 player games rather than minis, but he didn't lie.
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EBWOP: Clarification - I didn't go through all of the 20 games that he said he went through, but I went through 7 or 8 and there wasn't a red lynch on day 1 in any of them.
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Ninja'd.
@Shady
I believe you meant to say if Mordanis flips green then Golbat looks really scummy since he is the first to bring out a case on him, and Golbat looks scummy to me, too. but no vice versa. I am really sensitive to posts like this. "So you think [b]player X[b] is scum. We will lynch you, and if you are innocent, then we will believe you and lynch him later". I know this is off by a bit, since you actually have more argument that that, but such logic is so easy overlooked and scums love to make use of silly logic like these, and make a second easy mislynch.
@Golbat
Looks like most of you is set to get Golbat lynched. I am losing some confidence seeing how my reads are widely agreed upon. I hope I just suck and Golbat actually flips red.
I am off to bed, later.
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Ninja'd second time
I will address Ange and Kei. Post this so you guys know its coming.
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Also
EBWOP:@Golbat
Looks like most of you is set to get Golbat lynched. I am losing some confidence seeing how my reads are widely agreed disagreed upon.
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Hi guys I got back from my party at 4am and it is currently 5:30 a.m. my time.I am incredibly tired. I have spent the last hour reading through the thread but progress has been slow.
So I guess I will post my thoughts etc.
on mordanis
I am not satisfied with your responses to my case against you. I dont think you have adequately explained anything and have just repeated all the reasons why you should be considered town rather than the particular issues stated. You are still my strongest scum read, therefore I think you are the best lynch candidate.
@ange777 on Goodkarma.
I mean I posted it before, all Goodkarma's posts are discussions on lurkers and policy lynch's. Seemed to be a bit overly defensive when I pointed this out. The problem with goodkarma is that there is almost nothing to go on with him, as there is no analysis in his posts.
on Shady Sands.
The strongest argument on shady was posted by prom and followed up by ange. It seems like he has been pushing to potentially set up a mis-lynch and use this as reason to lynch another. As I said previously the whole lying/listing previous mafia games/ statistics situation to me didn't seem like a particularly strong argument or evidence and didn't seem to add anything to the case on Shady Sands.
With that being said at the moment we are headed towards a no lynch which I am certainly not in favour of. I am willing to alter my vote to ensure this does not happen. Hopefully this gets resolved shortly as I would love to get some sleep.
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Will respond to Ange777's post soon, but before I do that, just making it official:
##Vote Golbat
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Right now, I'm just going to post what my reads are to this point, regarding what has been posted in the last several hours.
Shady:
This post: + Show Spoiler +On July 28 2012 22:23 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2012 21:30 Promethelax wrote:On July 28 2012 21:00 Shady Sands wrote:On July 28 2012 20:36 Promethelax wrote:Hi all! Back from work late and I'm blasted to bare with me if I'm not making sense, I'll clarify after I sleep and wake up if anything is obfuscated by my mental sate right now. Well, a few things have changed since I was away, I see. aR: I actually found your Haiku to be pretty easy to read. I'm glad you stopped with them since one or two took some time for me to work out but in general I don't feel that they obscured your ideas too much. Unless I'm shit-house retarded this Reading through the thread. Lots of material to work with, nice job town. was posted two hours ago by SS and he never said anything else. I'll be voting for him based on my earlier case and his lurky response to it, if there was a case on me I'd do my damndest to explain my behaviour to town and make sure that people hunt scum instead of me. So, Shady seems really suspicious to me and I will be voting for him, I hope you all will join me and lynch this scum bastard today. I'll be up for a while more and may pop back in to the thread before going to sleep. I probably won't post again after sleeping until 24 hours from now when I get out of work tomorrow. For now: ##Vote: ShadySands Have a more substantive post on the front burner, but I think this post is something we need to note. Look through Promethelax's filter: he makes an accusation against me, then signs off, sees no response to his accusations and says I'm lurking, then calls for a lynch because someone hasn't responded to his accusations yet. His reasoning in going from FoS Shady Sands to Vote Shady Sands is a single two-hour old post that says I'm reading through the thread. I think we have better candidates to lynch, but this behavior strikes me as fairly scummy. ah, no. You're wrong there. We're getting close to deadline for me (because I'll be asleep for a while) and no one has shown me anything that makes me think anyone is scummier than you or that you are town and therefore less scummy than someone else. I didn't place my vote early because I don't like to vote really early. I Placed my vote when the thread had time to do its thing and make other cases or defenses, I like to be informed before I make my decisions. I would have voted for you even without your most recent post. I just thought I would mention it since I had a chase against you and more post was, once again, scummy. tl;dr I was going to vote you unless 1) you had posted a convincing defense of yourself or 2)someone had made a case that made me think someone was scummier than you. Neither of those things happened while I was at work. I voted for you. Ah, ok. I just found it a little wierd that you wouldn't mention at all the huge debate surrounding golbat or mordanis, instead only talking about aRyujin's haikus and my one-liner post. I'm going to write a defense post now--hope it addresses your concerns (and the concerns of anyone else who shares your line of thinking.) On July 29 2012 03:23 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 03:07 Ange777 wrote:On July 29 2012 02:54 Shady Sands wrote:On July 29 2012 02:31 Ange777 wrote:@Shady: On July 29 2012 01:00 Shady Sands wrote:
First, because, as I've stated before, Golbat is the player which I think is most likely to be scum based on his D1 posts and behavior, and second, because Mordanis is a very active player, which means that if Golbat flips blue/green Mordanis will need to make a lot of explanatory posting under quite a bit of pressure (since he was the first one to FoS Golbat). Either way, Golbat brings a lot of clarity to the town. I never said that we should auto-lynch Mordanis if Golbat flips green/blue--rather that since it will be easy for town to put pressure on Mordanis if Golbat flips non-scum, and that Mordanis is an active poster, then it will be easy to make him crack if he is scum.
So if we are not supposed to auto-lynch Mordanis if Golbat flips green/blue, how are we to interpret your following statement? On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:
I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa.
That if Mordanis flips red, Golbat is green/blue, and if Mordanis flips green/blue, Golbat is red. Do you mind elaborating how you came up with this conclusion??? This was part of a discussion on whether or not to lynch Mordanis and whether or not to lynch Golbat. From my POV, it looked unlikely that scum would be bussing their own members on Day 1, given that Day 1 lynch rates tended to mislynches anyhow. Therefore, the first half of the statement--that if Mord flips red, Golbat (his main accuser) should be green/blue. I did not state this in the thread because I thought this was apparent. The second half of the statement--that if Mord flips green/blue, Golbat should be red--is because Golbat was, as Mord noted, the first person to start hinting at lynching Mord (before other people had even made up their minds about it) and also made that extremely suspicious "end all discussion, vote Mord" post. This smelled to me like either extremely bad town play (which I, as a general rule, try not to believe in--I think that most players will behave fairly intelligently) or a clear attempt by a red to push for a mislynch. So if Mord was innocent, then the likeliest red would be Golbat. Then, after writing that, I started reading through Golbat's posts themselves, and they suggested an added layer of guilt--especially his flip-flopping and multiple backtracking to defend himself. Then Golbat tried defending himself some more, and looked even more scummy, etc. etc.
Golbat:
His latest post: + Show Spoiler +On July 28 2012 13:46 Golbat wrote:
I'll probably be able to read the thread before I have to go to work tomorrow morning, but in case I don't get that chance,
##Vote aRyujin
This is why I am voting for him: His haiku style makes it easy for him to fill up his posts with a shit load of waffle and some nearly baseless accusations and almost get away with it. I hope in between now and deadline the eye of suspicion takes a long, hard look at him, because his confusing waffle is nothing short of a full-on impediment to real discussion.
I would also consider voting for Shady Sands, depending on the consensus of the town for these reasons : His direct swap from "I agree with golbat, let's lynch Mord" after Mord drew such attention to himself to "Let's lynch Golbat and then Mord, because one of them HAS to be scum" after people started questioning me is something that I don't think anybody else agreed with. The way he seemed so concrete about who we should lynch for multiple days is really suspicious. We should be picking lynches on a day by day basis as more discussion takes place, not queue up our votes for several days straight.
Right now these two seem to me to be the most scummy. Of course, if someone else decides to act scummy as all get out, i'd be happy to vote for them as well, but at the moment these two seem the most suspicious.
Hopefully i'll be able to get back and read/contribute more in the morning, as i'll be at work when the deadline hits and won't be home for three or four hours after that.
For now, I'll be going to vote for Golbat, but I want to make it clear that I think that a no-lynch at this point would be disastrous, so I would change to keep this from happening.
##Vote: Golbat
Can we get another vote count? Plz!
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@Ange
It's 3am right now so I am skimming through goodkarma's filter and give an general impression: hope you don't mind. Please do ask if you need me to elaborate on any particular detail:
While I disagree with his lurker lynching policy, he is consistent with it and follow through with pressuring lurkers. One thing that raises my eyebrow is that he decided to go after aRyuujin and aRyuujin only, when there are several other players that is also lurking hard(There might be explanation that I missed). Also, I dislike how he lightly dismisses Mordanis' case, totally ignored Shady's (well, I guess shady's far from being a lurker) and most importantly, ignored Golbat's case right until the end. If Golbat flips scum I might have something to say about it, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.
@Kei
He could be lying about trying to look for the games, but I would be lying if I say I checked using the filter he suggested. However, my point is that he seems to assert the notion that random lynch is actually better than scum-hunting lynch, which during my proof read I realized he might have meant something entirely different. I added that after I concluded that Golbat is less likely to be scum, and decided not to change my vote.
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On July 29 2012 04:14 alan133 wrote:
@Shady
I believe you meant to say if Mordanis flips green then Golbat looks really scummy since he is the first to bring out a case on him, and Golbat looks scummy to me, too. but no vice versa. I am really sensitive to posts like this. "So you think player X is scum. We will lynch you, and if you are innocent, then we will believe you and lynch him later". I know this is off by a bit, since you actually have more argument that that, but such logic is so easy overlooked and scums love to make use of silly logic like these, and make a second easy mislynch.
I don't think so. He explicitely said that if one of them is town, the other must be scum.
On July 29 2012 02:54 Shady Sands wrote:
On July 29 2012 02:31 Ange777 wrote:
So if we are not supposed to auto-lynch Mordanis if Golbat flips green/blue, how are we to interpret your following statement?
On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:
I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa.
On July 29 2012 04:14 alan133 wrote:
That if Mordanis flips red, Golbat is green/blue, and if Mordanis flips green/blue, Golbat is red.
@Golbat
Looks like most of you is set to get Golbat lynched. I am losing some confidence seeing how my reads are widely agreed upon. I hope I just suck and Golbat actually flips red.
I am off to bed, later.
[B]On July 29 2012 04:18 alan133 wrote: Also EBWOP: Show nested quote +@Golbat
Looks like most of you is set to get Golbat lynched. I am losing some confidence seeing how my reads are widely [b]agreed disagreed upon.
What are you trying to say? That it just seems far too easy to get Golbat lynched? Yes, that occurred to me as well and I am aware that this might be because scum is safe from getting lynched and easily agrees on lynching semi-lurking Golbat. But as of right now, activity is still shitty and I don't think we can get much discussion started on potential other lynch candidates. Vote stays on Golbat for now.
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could we get a vote count please <3
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On July 29 2012 04:39 alan133 wrote:
@Ange
It's 3am right now so I am skimming through goodkarma's filter and give an general impression: hope you don't mind. Please do ask if you need me to elaborate on any particular detail:
While I disagree with his lurker lynching policy, he is consistent with it and follow through with pressuring lurkers. One thing that raises my eyebrow is that he decided to go after aRyuujin and aRyuujin only, when there are several other players that is also lurking hard(There might be explanation that I missed). Also, I dislike how he lightly dismisses Mordanis' case, totally ignored Shady's (well, I guess shady's far from being a lurker) and most importantly, ignored Golbat's case right until the end. If Golbat flips scum I might have something to say about it, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.
On July 29 2012 04:35 DarthPunk wrote:
@ange777 on Goodkarma.
I mean I posted it before, all Goodkarma's posts are discussions on lurkers and policy lynch's. Seemed to be a bit overly defensive when I pointed this out. The problem with goodkarma is that there is almost nothing to go on with him, as there is no analysis in his posts.
While both of you are correct that he is consistent in his lynch all lurkers that is exactly the problem I see in him. Before he posted everyone was discussion the cases made against people with scummy behaviour/posts (especially Shady at that time). But after he institgated the policy talk without commenting on the existing cases people started talking about lurkers and policy lynching, he totally derailed the topic of conversation and talked about something super safe: lynching a lurker.
I already stated it earlier: It will always be harder for scum to make a good convincing case. So the easiest thing to do is just make a case on a lurker. Through his post he achieved two things: 1) Showing himself as an active player and 2) Getting town cred by making a case while in reality he did not take any stand by making that post.
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On July 29 2012 03:45 Ange777 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2012 03:23 Shady Sands wrote:On July 29 2012 03:07 Ange777 wrote:On July 29 2012 02:54 Shady Sands wrote:On July 29 2012 02:31 Ange777 wrote:@Shady: On July 29 2012 01:00 Shady Sands wrote:
First, because, as I've stated before, Golbat is the player which I think is most likely to be scum based on his D1 posts and behavior, and second, because Mordanis is a very active player, which means that if Golbat flips blue/green Mordanis will need to make a lot of explanatory posting under quite a bit of pressure (since he was the first one to FoS Golbat). Either way, Golbat brings a lot of clarity to the town. I never said that we should auto-lynch Mordanis if Golbat flips green/blue--rather that since it will be easy for town to put pressure on Mordanis if Golbat flips non-scum, and that Mordanis is an active poster, then it will be easy to make him crack if he is scum.
So if we are not supposed to auto-lynch Mordanis if Golbat flips green/blue, how are we to interpret your following statement? On July 27 2012 20:33 Shady Sands wrote:
I'm going to state that I share Mordanis' and Keir's concerns that Golbat may be scum. This is especially true if Mordanis flips green or blue--then Golbat is very clearly red, and vice versa.
That if Mordanis flips red, Golbat is green/blue, and if Mordanis flips green/blue, Golbat is red. Do you mind elaborating how you came up with this conclusion??? This was part of a discussion on whether or not to lynch Mordanis and whether or not to lynch Golbat. From my POV, it looked unlikely that scum would be bussing their own members on Day 1, given that Day 1 lynch rates tended to mislynches anyhow. Therefore, the first half of the statement--that if Mord flips red, Golbat (his main accuser) should be green/blue. I did not state this in the thread because I thought this was apparent. The second half of the statement--that if Mord flips green/blue, Golbat should be red--is because Golbat was, as Mord noted, the first person to start hinting at lynching Mord (before other people had even made up their minds about it) and also made that extremely suspicious "end all discussion, vote Mord" post. This smelled to me like either extremely bad town play (which I, as a general rule, try not to believe in--I think that most players will behave fairly intelligently) or a clear attempt by a red to push for a mislynch. So if Mord was innocent, then the likeliest red would be Golbat. Then, after writing that, I started reading through Golbat's posts themselves, and they suggested an added layer of guilt--especially his flip-flopping and multiple backtracking to defend himself. Then Golbat tried defending himself some more, and looked even more scummy, etc. etc. Did it ever occur to you that both might be mislead townies? You are already crossing out a lot of possibilities by saying that either of them has to be scum. And by commiting yourself to this as a fact, how can you say that we are not supposed to auto lynch the other one if the first one flips town?
I think you're getting a little confused here--I never said that either have to be scum. I said that if Mord is lynched and comes up as innocent, Golbat is likely scum. If Mord is lynched and comes up as guilty, then Golbat is likely to be innocent. However, I did not mean that if Golbat is innocent, Mord comes up as scum, or if Golbat is scum, Mord comes up as innocent. That is because Mord didn't seem like he was railroading Golbat, while Golbat did look like he was railroading Mord pretty hard.
That being said, though, if Golbat flips blue/green, the pressure will be on Mord to explain himself. The pressure will also be on me as well, since I've argued against Golbat fairly heavily (just as heavily as Mord, if not more). I'm glad about that, since pressure keeps activity up, and keeps the scumhunt moving forward.
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On July 29 2012 04:52 DarthPunk wrote:
could we get a vote count please <3
I think right now, on Golbat we have:
Ange777, aRyujin, Keirathi, Zorkmid, Goodkarma, me, and Mordanis.
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On July 29 2012 05:12 Shady Sands wrote:I think right now, on Golbat we have: Ange777, aRyujin, Keirathi, Zorkmid, Goodkarma, me, and Mordanis.
EBWOP: That is in order of when people posted their votes.
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V-V-V-V-VOTE COUNT:
aRyuujin ( 1 ): Golbat,
Golbat ( 7 ): Ange777, aRyuujin, goodkarma, Keirathi, Mordanis, Shady Sands, Zorkmid,
Mordanis ( 1 ): DarthPunk,
Shady Sands ( 3 ): alan133, Obvious.660, Promethelax,
Presently, Golbat is set to be lynched! <1 hours remain in Day 1 !
MrMedic has yet to vote!
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On July 29 2012 05:07 Shady Sands wrote:
I think you're getting a little confused here--I never said that either have to be scum. I said that if Mord is lynched and comes up as innocent, Golbat is likely scum. If Mord is lynched and comes up as guilty, then Golbat is likely to be innocent. However, I did not mean that if Golbat is innocent, Mord comes up as scum, or if Golbat is scum, Mord comes up as innocent. That is because Mord didn't seem like he was railroading Golbat, while Golbat did look like he was railroading Mord pretty hard.
That being said, though, if Golbat flips blue/green, the pressure will be on Mord to explain himself. The pressure will also be on me as well, since I've argued against Golbat fairly heavily (just as heavily as Mord, if not more). I'm glad about that, since pressure keeps activity up, and keeps the scumhunt moving forward.
Okay, this is a totally different thing than what I understood in the first place. Apologies! I am still unsure about you though and would like to hear your opinion on goodkarma.
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EPT
