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On July 21 2012 08:02 sciberbia wrote:I agree. can you please wait a few hours before shitting on our play? I'm just trying to enjoy the moment here. Also, I think that putting this game down to "luck" isn't giving town enough credit. (3/11) and (2/9) scum lynches would be extremely lucky indeed on random chance. I think it might've had something to do with good reads.
I don't think so, given that several players believed Mattchew was town when he got lynched.
Just look at the post immediately before the lynchpost as an example.
I said this in the obs QT before it happened, but the bias toward a results-oriented perspective is pretty damn high. You can get a correct result based on bad reasoning but all that means is that you lucked out and got a correct result. It doesn't justify your reasoning. This has happened in the past and people think they've done well. When they harbor these incorrect ideas they build bad habits. The evidence from future games supports that notion because they never get the same result again.
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On July 21 2012 08:02 NoSmurfHere wrote:I approach learning mafia the same way I learn almost anything else. If you're not aware of your mistakes then you will be doomed to repeat them. In fact, sometimes even being aware of your mistakes, you repeat them subconsciously anyway (I had this conversation with marvellosity a little while ago; both of us were talking about how we learned something and then made the same mistake again later lol) Anyway it's kinda like learning how to play an RTS game online for the first time. The sooner you realize that you have a lot to improve, the sooner you can begin to improve. Even the best players make mistakes and it's in their interest to realize these mistakes so that they can become better. No one is perfect by any means.
I don't agree you're being too critical. I do think you're just plain wrong that after the mattchew lynch with a scib kill mafia has any hope of winning. He needed to roleblock me and kill someone who was on matt aka s0Lstice to have any chance of winning.
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On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of.
I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play".
Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance.
I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate.
That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote).
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On July 21 2012 08:06 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play". Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance. I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate. That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote).
This brings to mind another possibility. I mean shit, matt could have pushed a lynch on me EASY. Then Keir is the next to go no questions asked in my mind. I just can't wrap my head around why matt buddied me. All it did was make me think he was scum.
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On July 21 2012 08:06 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play". Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance. I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate. That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote).
I think the reason you were being pushed was because legitimately many of the things you were saying were antitown.
Also the examples I listed were merely examples. Your reads changed later but given that your filter was 10 pages long I don't think many people truly knew how your thought process changed. Sometimes it's just difficult for people to read that much. (you should know, you didn't read the OP :p)
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I'm all for learning! I give myself a low grade for this game, but it had more to do with time I had to play early on.
I'm looking forward to your write-up. I'd like to know what was wrong with the analysis for both sciberbia's case on Talis, and my case on Mattchew.
I've already learned one thing that was wrong with my case on Mattchew, but I'll keep it to myself until after I see the write-up.
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On July 21 2012 08:08 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 08:06 gonzaw wrote:On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play". Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance. I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate. That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote). This brings to mind another possibility. I mean shit, matt could have pushed a lynch on me EASY. Then Keir is the next to go no questions asked in my mind. I just can't wrap my head around why matt buddied me. All it did was make me think he was scum.
and that's the reason I believe scum could've won at any point :p Anyone could've been lynched given the correct type of push.
DB had a low chance of winning but he didn't try. So we'll never know. However if we ignore these possibilities (and I'm glad you're not ignoring them) then we're blind to future eventualities.
A win might be a win but if you can't reproduce that win in the future it doesn't matter much, right?
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On July 21 2012 08:08 NoSmurfHere wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 08:06 gonzaw wrote:On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play". Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance. I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate. That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote). I think the reason you were being pushed was because legitimately many of the things you were saying were antitown. Also the examples I listed were merely examples. Your reads changed later but given that your filter was 10 pages long I don't think many people truly knew how your thought process changed. Sometimes it's just difficult for people to read that much. (you should know, you didn't read the OP :p)
I tried being as transparent as I could with my thought process.
By D2 it should have been obvious that by reading the thread and filters I changed my mind about lots of things. I mean, I spent like 4-5 hours reading filters and the thread and making big-ass posts where I basically change my mind about Keirathi, S&B, austin, sciberbia, etc.
I was pissed off since it did seem people didn't even read my posts. Not my filter but my posts (as I'm posting them).
My filter wasn't that large initially by D2. I started posting A LOT on D3 since I was going to be a misslynch and I HAD to convince people I was innocent (by trying to contribute as much as possible, put my thoughts about lots of things, etc).
Apparently nobody read those posts either or even took them into account 
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On July 21 2012 08:09 NoSmurfHere wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 08:08 Risen wrote:On July 21 2012 08:06 gonzaw wrote:On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play". Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance. I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate. That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote). This brings to mind another possibility. I mean shit, matt could have pushed a lynch on me EASY. Then Keir is the next to go no questions asked in my mind. I just can't wrap my head around why matt buddied me. All it did was make me think he was scum. and that's the reason I believe scum could've won at any point :p Anyone could've been lynched given the correct type of push. DB had a low chance of winning but he didn't try. So we'll never know. However if we ignore these possibilities (and I'm glad you're not ignoring them) then we're blind to future eventualities. A win might be a win but if you can't reproduce that win in the future it doesn't matter much, right?
This makes me examine my "win" (read as: loss) in SSB64 with new eyes....... I've been patting myself on the back and cursing iGrok being shitty for the loss of that game when perhaps instead I should be examining the play that lead iGrok to be so dead set on his reads.
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On July 21 2012 08:09 NoSmurfHere wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 08:08 Risen wrote:On July 21 2012 08:06 gonzaw wrote:On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play". Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance. I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate. That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote). This brings to mind another possibility. I mean shit, matt could have pushed a lynch on me EASY. Then Keir is the next to go no questions asked in my mind. I just can't wrap my head around why matt buddied me. All it did was make me think he was scum. and that's the reason I believe scum could've won at any point :p Anyone could've been lynched given the correct type of push. DB had a low chance of winning but he didn't try. So we'll never know. However if we ignore these possibilities (and I'm glad you're not ignoring them) then we're blind to future eventualities. A win might be a win but if you can't reproduce that win in the future it doesn't matter much, right?
If I was still alive there was no way I'd allow a lynch on Keirathi, or hell even Risen before Dropbear (I even posted it in that "lynch sequence" before), even if the "Mattchew wagon" didn't happen to "confirm" Keirathi/Milton/etc
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On July 21 2012 08:08 s0Lstice wrote:
I'm all for learning! I give myself a low grade for this game, but it had more to do with time I had to play early on.
I'm looking forward to your write-up. I'd like to know what was wrong with the analysis for both sciberbia's case on Talis, and my case on Mattchew.
I've already learned one thing that was wrong with my case on Mattchew, but I'll keep it to myself until after I see the write-up.
Let me put it this way (and this probably isn't an answer you expect or want to hear)
The problem with town this game wasn't necessarily cases. There were so many cases, some of them were bound to be made on scum.
The problem was on a basic level. Town relied very heavily on confirming players. That's okay in the sense that you guys took advantage of the setup, but it only worked because scum didn't do anything (and because you had confirming mechanics). They could've sown doubt very very easily (something Risen is realizing right now) and they could have set up strings of mislynches without even pushing very hard.
Vivax was the d1 mislynch and scum didn't have a great deal of influence in it. DB was the counterwagon as well but if you notice, he received very little attention for the rest of the game. In fact, prior to endgame people were speculating that RISEN was the last scum, and not DB.
Prior to mattchew dying, people thought he was town. And you have posts like this:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=76#1503
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=76#1505
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=75#1482
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=75#1490
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=75#1486
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351147¤tpage=74#1466
The result may have been "correct" but I don't think the process was.
Not to mention it is my opinion that town would have lost horribly if the setup was, for example, town JK town RB town vig or something like that.
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swap me and marv and scum wins this game easily. wbg is entirely correct. you guys got things right but often for the wrong reasons. so it goes though
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I totally got dropbear though.
now i just need to learn to get people to pay attention to me....
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On July 21 2012 08:08 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2012 08:06 gonzaw wrote:On July 21 2012 07:54 Risen wrote:
Whew rereading my filter I'm shocked I wasn't pushed by scum for misusing words. Bus alone wasn't going to get me lynched, but the claim and bus in combination would have gotten me lynched npnp had mattchew not tunneled gonzaw so hard. There were people (townies) in thread who really, REALLY wanted to lynch me (I don't blame them) and still matt stuck to gonzaw for reasons I'm unsure of. I stand by what I said that you seemed townie and those "bus" instead of "wagon" and your cop claim could have been brushed off as "bad play". Maybe it was me but if people had read your filter this game, and took into account other games where you were scum they would have figured out you were town, or at least not be that sure to kill you and give you another chance. I mean, even it townies make "bad plays" it's not "oh if the scum team is competent they'll get misslynched 100%". If other townies can get good reads then even if the scum team is "competent" they can't just make a townie change their read if he finds it accurate. That's why I was kind of shocked I was being pushed so much (my "bad plays"=/="scum"), and Risen and Keirathi too (Keirathi for his outburst against Risen and his self-vote). This brings to mind another possibility. I mean shit, matt could have pushed a lynch on me EASY. Then Keir is the next to go no questions asked in my mind. I just can't wrap my head around why matt buddied me. All it did was make me think he was scum.
it was to set up a win
buddy risen, lynch gonzaw, kill like s0l and rb you (WIFOM s0l death) lynch keith, kill whoever, lynch you gg
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@WBG:
Risen made it clear when he voted for Matt that he thought Matt was town. And sciberbia had been saying all day that Matt was town. It's not like those people changed their minds at the last minute and suddenly thought Matt was town.
The people not voting for Matt all had said repeatedly they thought Matt was town.
Everyone on Matt except for Risen had reason to vote Matt over gonzaw, which was basically what the options came down to at the end of the day.
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Ps. Gonzaw I went after you cause I knew you didn't have enough time for the game(s) you were playing in, it was the only time I would have been able to actually get a lynch on your off... you posted just enough day 3 to survive imo
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On July 21 2012 08:31 Keirathi wrote:
@WBG:
Risen made it clear when he voted for Matt that he thought Matt was town. And sciberbia had been saying all day that Matt was town. It's not like those people changed their minds at the last minute and suddenly thought Matt was town.
The people not voting for Matt all had said repeatedly they thought Matt was town.
Everyone on Matt except for Risen had reason to vote Matt over gonzaw, which was basically what the options came down to at the end of the day.
Right, but in a lot of those situations the two mafia votes matter a lot more than the town votes.
It was 7v2 at that point. Had mafia influenced the lynch even a tiny bit, it would've failed. DB was afk though and Matt wasn't able to defend himself because all game he had no presence. (that's his problem, yes, but imagine someone who wanted to play scum in his position)
So you have 2-3 adamant townies (I would argue only one: milton seemed to be the strongest push behind Mattchew and it was possible to convince gonzaw to switch to someone else) and then you have 3-4 reluctant ones. Combine that with two scum votes and you can see that the influence lies on the "wrong" side.
Just, in this case, luck happened to be that the vote switched from gonzaw to mattchew as opposed to the other way around.
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I would like to think I wouldn't have switched to gonzaw no matter what, but maybe I would have at the last minute to avoid a no-lynch. I really got town vibes from him, especially late in d3.
I maybe would have switched to Milton, and I certainly would have switched to Risen, but I don't really see either of those gaining enough steam.
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Sorry to WBG for playing like shit and not wanting to be scum in his game, I had hit a streak of like 4 outta 5/6 games as scum and forgot to request town
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LOL my first ##Lock in the QT was the last scum standing.
Oh, mafia.
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EPT
