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Newbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 18

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s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 16 2012 20:20 GMT
#341
Wow that's confusing. How does a person you have a town read on, suggesting a plan that ends in essentially a guaranteed win for town, make you change your read on me?

You did read it right?

If I'm at the top, someone gets knocked off the bottom of the list, who according to our general consensus could be scum.

I want to get inside your head and see how you could possibly suspect me at this point. I've been playing as green as a grass stain. I don't give a shit if I die, provided the new list is 1. me 2. suki 3. golden 4. unforgiven. If this is what it takes, then I'm all for it.

I'd hope that you would at least have the courtesy to feel bad after I flip green though
ATOBTTR
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 16 2012 20:31 GMT
#342
Just got up.

First of all, alan has claimed vigilante. if anybody else is vigilante, you should claim NOW.

@s0Lstice
I do not like your plan. It completely disregards night actions and also prevents us from making better reads based on what people post. There's a pretty decent chance we have a cop, and we surely have at least 1 power role. I think we'd have a good chance to win with your plan, but it's not guaranteed. It's the lazy way to go, and we have an even better chance to win by continuing discussion, making reads, and getting information from night actions. Also, why are you so suspicious of unforgiven/MJ?

I'm going to start looking at the cases on trackd00r, golden, and suki.
alan133
Profile Joined August 2010
Malaysia159 Posts
June 16 2012 20:32 GMT
#343
@Miltonkram
Other than that my only suggestion would be to make sure our list is flexible. If the potential scum is outside of that list, they would of course give you the green light on this plan. Make sure that this list doesn't destroy our ability to effectively pressure and hunt scum. Keep other players on your radar. Keep up pressure on players.


This nullify the existence of this plan. With or without this plan, we will always have a list of most scummy to least scummy player.

Also, take a look at my condition. I suggest everyone read through my view on s0Lstice's case. Its in my previous post. Unless s0Lstice agrees to sacrifice himself, this is a no go for me.

@s0Lstice
I am eager to see your answer: Will you proceed with the plan if you were to be the first to go? I will expect an explanation.
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 16 2012 20:35 GMT
#344
@Milton

The one condition on this plan is that the list is non-negotiable, barring one thing. Alan is confirmed town. I'm not really sure where his head is at right now, but his support matters.

There are 3 choices here, in light of Alan's post.

List 1: suki, golden, unforgiven, trackd00r

List 2: me, suki, golden, unforgiven

...or scrap the plan

I don't care if I die if it means the plan is followed. I think it's likely also that mods will speed up days if a majority asks for it.

Whatever the DT decides to do (if there is one) can be factored in when it happens, either by removing a person from the list, or bumping someone up.

All I'm looking for is what choice you want, and that goes for everyone. The sooner we choose the better.



ATOBTTR
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
June 16 2012 20:43 GMT
#345
@alan133
I don't think your changes to the plan hold water. Just look at s0Lstice's play this game. He's as close to confirmed town as you can get without dying and flipping green. I'll be looking through all the players who aren't on the list and seeing if I think any of them should be on it. I'll be out for a bit. When I'm back I'll read a few filters and see what I can dig up.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
June 16 2012 20:48 GMT
#346
@ s0Lstice
Why is the list non-negotiable? I agree with your reads but your list is also taking out some of the pressure and case-building that can cause a scum player to show his/her hand. Is there some sort of logic to this list that I'm not understanding?
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 16 2012 20:51 GMT
#347
I'm in favor of scrapping the plan.

I don't see any advantage to making the list "non-negotiable" except for ending the game faster, which isn't listed anywhere as part of our win condition.
alan133
Profile Joined August 2010
Malaysia159 Posts
June 16 2012 20:57 GMT
#348
@s0Lstice
Sorry I skipped through your answer

I sensed this could be possibly a last ditch effort to get a scum win. I got a town read on you, does not mean you are a confirmed townie. In fact, there is no way to confirm. I don't want to draw another case based on speculations, but lets be real. There is no guarantee that you are town, and if you are not, it became a guaranteed scum win.

I sincerely would not feel bad if you flip green, no offence here, but I play to win, and that's the only way to guarantee a "guaranteed town win". If anything, I'd want to make sure you win with me.

Right now, this plan the way you proposed, it only guarantees your victory, be it town or not. Of course, if you are town, I don't really mind BUT, let me repeat again, there is no guarantee, until you true colors are shown.

Also, both O.Golden_ne and trackd00r must be in the list, which was not in your revised order.
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 16 2012 21:03 GMT
#349
@Milton,

Your question presumes that the scum lies outside of the 4 on my list.

Look at who we have left right now:

s0Lstice
Miltonkram
sciberbia
alan133
crossfire99
suki
Golden
Unforgiven
trackd00r

The top 4 on that list. What read do you have on them?

Concerning crossfire99, I think it's extremely likely that he is town based on the fact that he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 after heavonearth flipped. Ask yourself if scum would do this.

That leaves 4 players, for 4 lynches. The order really doesn't matter. I put suki at the top because I am pretty much convinced she is the last scum. I said the list was non-negotiable because I didn't want it to turn into a side show of who gets lynched when.

@sciberbia,

there will not be another vig claim. no scum in their right minds would claim that shot, and no townie who isn't a complete idiot would claim it if they didn't do it. if scum claim the shot it's an auto lose, because we'd lynch both people.

I'm not suspicious of Unforgiven, because I'm fairly certain Suki is scum. I included him in the list because the filter size is small, and there is a chance (albiet small) that he is scum due to the lurkyness.

Also, I play this game to win. I don't particularly care about being lazy. I proposed the plan because it will lead to a town win. That said, I really needed your support on it. I'm going to give it a little more time to hear from others, but if you continue to not be on board my suggestion will be to scrap the plan. From that point on, the only discussion on it should be if someone wants to use it in a case against me.
ATOBTTR
alan133
Profile Joined August 2010
Malaysia159 Posts
June 16 2012 21:16 GMT
#350
It is 5:00 am here, and is supposed to wake up 3 hours later for a meeting.

@s0Lstice
I hope you can get into my head by now. Assuming sciberbia, another player that I+ Show Spoiler +
and assume you too
have a strong town read, came out with this idea, what will you feel? Town reads are town reads, but it does not mean it is 100%. Unlike my position now, assuming no counter claim, I am a cold hard 100% town.

Also, upon re-analysing, I don't see why we shouldn't make a list of scummy players, but why fix it? You mentioned we have 3 mislynch, that gives town a big advantage right now, but what have your suggestion improved town's advantage?

Upon rethinking into your plan, it feels like it is what we are supposed to do in normal circumstances, but you suggested no more discussion after we fix it. Fix it or not, we have 3 mislynch regardless.

Is it me, or I am sensing a scum slip?.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 16 2012 21:30 GMT
#351
@s0Lstice, alan
It is unlikely, but there could potentially be two real vigilantes. I only realized this last night. So if anybody else wants to claim vigi, they should do so right now.

about the plan
I think we are all making a big deal out of nothing here. Any reasonable actions from this point lead us to 90+% town win. s0Lstice made a list of the 4 people most likely to be mafia (in his opinion), and proposed that we lynch all of them. That's pretty reasonable. But it kind of goes without saying that we will lynch the most scummy people. So the "plan" isn't really deviation from what we would do anyway. So I don't think it matters much whether we "agree" on the plan or not.

I don't think all this talk about the plan is very productive. Practically, I think it's hard enough to agree on one person to lynch, let alone four. And it's all subject to change anyway with information from night actions. So I suggest we just stop talking about the plan. Anyway, I'm just going through filters and making reads.

@alan
I highly doubt s0Lstice is mafia..
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 16 2012 21:44 GMT
#352
alan are you for serious?

I've answered your questions already, first of all. I said your support is important. I said sciberbia's support was important. I said if both of your stances do not change in the near future, I would want to scrap the plan.

I said the list was fixed because if you open it up for discussion, guess what happens? We argue about the order. This is a good thing for scum.

Right now we are arguing as well, and that's a bad thing. I knew it would be apparent pretty quickly if this plan was going to work or not. It's clear I'm not getting the support from the people I needed support from to make the plan work, so I say enough. The plan is over and gone, there is zero reason to talk about it after this post unless it is involved in a case against me.

I have a few more comments on it, but I'll spoiler them ;D
+ Show Spoiler +
I'm disappointed, simply put. Imagine how telling it would have been to see the reactions of the people on that list, if we had a majority supporting the idea. If I was scum in that position I'd be thinking about conceding.


Continue with your regularly scheduled programming. Like sciberbia said, that list still has uses. Everyone should make a similar list and narrow down the choices.

I'm still strongly of the opinion that suki is scum number 3. Please read my case + her defense, and have a look at her filter too of course.
ATOBTTR
alan133
Profile Joined August 2010
Malaysia159 Posts
June 16 2012 21:58 GMT
#353
@sciberbia
I see, thanks for your input. I scrapped the case I was writing going after s0Lsice, but I am no longer confident with my town read on him.

I see you were in past game with s0Lsice, did he usually make logical flaws when he is town? He made a few in this game: vigil not Nking obvious lynch target, the "plan" he came up with.

I hope to see your read on who is the 3rd scum.

I am still debating over this, but my brain is not functioning well at this hour. Should we get everyone to claim? I want to see your thoughts.

@s0Lsice
I did not FoS you merely on your post. There are other tells, for instance: suki defended your case against her. I defended her. I am not sure if you replied, but I did not read it if there is one. If you did not. you still insisted suki is suspicious even without a good reason.

@Everyone else
I really got to go to bed now. Do not do an analysis on s0Lsice's plan for now. Focus on getting a 2nd day lynch target. Don't be afraid to list down multiple suspect even when there is only one left, of course, don't list down everyone of course, and please provide a reason.

Signing out.
alan133
Profile Joined August 2010
Malaysia159 Posts
June 16 2012 22:12 GMT
#354
@s0Lsice
I see I misunderstood your "plan", so you were just listing down people to lynch, and say we are lynching these people over the 4 days, forcing a reaction from them. We are officially dropping this right now.

I would like to ask for your FoS, but I see you have strong opinions on suki. Please post your case on suki, or direct me to your response to her defence/my defence. I couldn't see suki as scum. I see her sudden change of stance from defending me against a scum and attacking me upon looking at my "conspiracy theory" to be an instinctive solo action. I don't see a connection between her and rolf, and her backing off me was pretty reasonable. Her changing votes to HeaveonEarth was also reasonable, given that she was focusing on me most of the day.

Good hunting.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
June 16 2012 22:59 GMT
#355
@ s0Lstice
I'm back and ready to devote some time to the game. In regards to the list, I realize now it was partially a ploy to get the reactions of players. While I didn't derail that as much as alan did, I apologize for screwing with your plan. Should have realized what you were doing. Dumb Milton is dumb...
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
June 17 2012 00:18 GMT
#356
That's ok Milton. Organizing a town circle in a newb game was a tall order, I knew that before I tried. I'm comfortable at just leaving it at 'don't fix what isn't broken.'

alan133,

You are right about the crap I was telling you to do with your shot. I didn't think that through enough before posting. For what it's worth, this is only the second time I've been alive on day 2. I've had precious little experience with the ramifications of night actions. In two games I've helped lynch the medic xD So I get a 'needs improvement' on the blue stuff.

The plan, however, was logically sound. After the game I hope you'll look back at it and see how it would have worked.

Regarding suki, my case on her is not hard to find. It's in my filter. I've read her defense, and it didn't change my mind. I'm not going to continue to argue with her as I'm not going to convince her she is scum. My goal, logically, is to convince everybody else. I will work on a response to your defense of her.

ATOBTTR
Crossfire99
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1529 Posts
June 17 2012 00:39 GMT
#357
Ok I will just throw a few random thoughts about some stuff I noticed while catching up, then I'll go scumhunting.

Nice job everyone who looked into roflwaffle's filter and provided the evidence we needed to essentially "lynch" him. Good job alan actually shooting him. Nice to know one person who is confirmed town.

I noticed someone was wondering about if the last scum is a roleblocker. It doesn't matter if he is a roleblocker. As long as the rules are the same as when I was mafia last game, a mafia roleblocker can't roleblock and kill in the same night. I'll double check, though.

Can a mafia roleblocker both roleblock and kill in the same night? Is the rule different if he is the last scum?

As for this whole solstice issue (I'll only be using his plan in my case on him). He was the first person to bring attention to Heavon and the first person to vote for him. It wasn't weak pressure by the way. See my last post where I analyzed the lynch. Also, he was willing to include himself as the first lynch in his whole lynch list plan, so that pretty much confirms him in my eyes (as long as he wasn't lying, but I doubt it). So basically, I see him as a townie with a very strong scum read in suki and just desperately wants to get her lynched no matter what.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 17 2012 00:39 GMT
#358
I've gone through the case on suki, and I get the same feeling as s0Lstice; that suki is mafia and did a better job than last game of hiding it.

Here are some things I find suspicious about her:

her fist case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it+ Show Spoiler +

This has been covered already by both me and s0Lstice so I'm not going to say anything more about it here. I've found this suspicious from the start.

her stances on alan+ Show Spoiler +

Initially, she defends alan from the confirmed scum roflwaffles. Fine.

Here were the stances on alan when suki completely changed her mind on him:
aggressive: roflwaffle, miltonkram, s0Lstice
defensive: crossfire, sciberbia, trackdoor, suki

alan is now confirmed vigilante. Suki changing her mind here is pretty suspicious. She originally defended alan from roflwaffe. But after miltonkram and s0Lstice, two influential townies, jump on board against alan, suki changes her stance. With suki, miltonkram, s0Lstice, and roflwaffle against alan, he stood a chance of being mislynched.

suki's plan to get alan mislynced seems to have backfied when s0Lstice and miltonkram hop off the alan train, leaving her and confirmed scum roflwaffles as the only passengenrs. Naturally, she eventually hops off the train as well. Note that it only took her 1 post of alan, and an hour and 4 minutes, to do a complete 180 on him.

her stances on MJ and crossfire+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 14 2012 13:21 suki wrote:
Regarding Mouldyjeb, I agree that he is confusing, however his filter is also quite short. His words definitely are not pro-town, but in my opinion they aren't inherently scummy either, it could just as easily be poor town play.



MJ was probably the easiest lynch yesterday. Both HeavOnEarth and roflwaffles put pressure on MJ, so it makes sense that the third scum wouldn't do the same thing. But of course she wouldn't want to be defensive of MJ either, so she could leave open the option of voting him.

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
Crossfire99:

I spent a lot of time trying to figure out if he is scum or not. Looking into the filter of his two previous games, I found that his posting style is more or less the same.

In game 1, he rolls blue and lurks quite hard. He states out of game reasons for lurking, but he plays more or less non-commital, pointing out suspicious behavior but not really heavily pressuring anyone.

In game 2 as mafia, he starts out the game by doing two things. First, he posts a defense of a townie that had come under scrutiny. Second, he immediately starts pointing out errors in one particular person's posts. He actually tunnels this person for the entire Day 1 and only just fails to get him lynched. He survives for the whole game without really being under fire and mafia wins the game.

In this game I see a lot of policy talk, a lot of guidance talk, and hardly any pressure at all. I find it quite different from his previously successful mafia play. In addition, his helpful tone is quite present in the mafia QT from the previous game, which makes me feel more inclined to think he's actually trying to help, despite his posts not really pressuring or helping town much.

Basically, his meta has changed from his last scum game, and it's changed in a confusing way, and he isn't using the tactics that lead him to a win in the previous game. I'm waiting for more contributions from him before deciding whether I think he's scum or not.



Crossfire also stood a danger of being mislynched D1, and both confirmed scum pushed for a crossfire lynch. So it also makes sense that the third scum wouldn't want to be on that same bandwaggon. Suki kinda defends crossfire, but concludes that she is not sure. This makes sense for a mafia: softly defend someone who will be mislynched, but leave yourself the option of voting him.

scummy defense of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 15 2012 00:06 suki wrote:
About HeavOnEarth:
HeavOn's attack against Golden is weak, and his offhanded comment on MouldyJeb is simplistic. His points against Crossfire are thought out and straightforward.

While he has not taken a strong stance against anyone, he's also not been wishy washy. He's also kind of aggravating, mocking and provoking MJ and golden while waiting for their responses. He hasn't contributed much, especially in the way of the major cases of the day, which is a big point against him. I feel HeavOn isn't as suspicious as people are making him out to be, and am waiting for his response on topics such as me, alan113 and crossfire before making a decision.


First of all, she only comments on HeavOnEarth after being explicitly asked by s0Lstice. Then she kinda soft defends him and delays making a decision.

Here were the stances on HeavOnEarth when she finally decides to bus him:
- aggressive: s0Lstice, sciberbia, miltonkram, alan, roflwaffles (kinda)
- defensive: austinmcc

She could certainly see the writing on the wall by that point. And she also starts to accuse him around the same time that roflwaffles decides to bus him.

one of her comments on me+ Show Spoiler +

On June 15 2012 00:38 suki wrote:
I'm confused why sciberbia would be so suspicious of me. Perhaps its bias from the previous game when I was mafia, but I don't feel I've been playing in a scummy way.


This quote struck me as odd. I'd have expected a town suki to be suspicious of me for accusing her. But instead she makes an excuse for my "bad read". Minor thing.

accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was clearly more suspicious to everyone else+ Show Spoiler +

Everybody else was super suspicious of roflwaffles. But she made a big case against trackd00r instead. It's possible she just made a bad read, but this is another minor point against her.

She only accuses roflwaffles after the following list of people want his blood: miltonkram, alan, sciberbia, s0lstice, crossfire. Looks like another bus.


I haven't gone through the cases on trackd00r or golden yet, but I think its pretty likely suki is the last mafia, so

##Vote suki
suki
Profile Joined August 2009
Canada1159 Posts
June 17 2012 01:26 GMT
#359
For what it's worth I made the case on trackd00r before anyone else put a case out on N1.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 17 2012 01:49 GMT
#360
@suki
Sorry, I realize that point was not clear. I was pointing out that roflwaffles (not trackd00r) was the most scummy candidate and indeed is confirmed scum. If you were townie, I'd expect you to find roflwaffles more scummy than trackd00r. It's a minor point against you that you didn't find roflwaffles super scummy until everybody else did.
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