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@s0Lstice
I see. I missed a few things and underestimated the town benefit with a vig claim. Originally I thought scum is just going to kill off a confirmed target, but that is not really a good kill for scum considering vig is now officially a VT.
However, I think unless the vig is among the lynch candidate, or is in danger of getting lynched, he should not claim. There is no reason to claim if everyone has a strong town read on him. If a claim is made:
-If it is a fake claim, real vig should always COUNTER CLAIM.
-If there are no counter claims, I suggest we take his word for who he is, and pick another candidate for a lynch.
I also think that if there is a cop and has a guilty, out with it, if not, continue hunting.
That is enough discussion on blue's action. Unless there is anything I said is flawed, we should now concentrate on hunting the last scum.
I hope there is more post from other people
I will post my summary soon once I am done with my analysis.
EDIT: Just noticed I clicked on preview not post
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my opinion on vig role claiming is that its too late. they should have said it like 5 minutes before the day 2 post. how can we trust the person who claims now? anyone could claim it. if they said who they were shooting like 5seconds before daypost then it could be 100% confirmed they were town. so dont claim now.
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On June 15 2012 08:27 prplhz wrote:
Heavonearth:
Sciberbia
O.golden_ne
Roflwaffles55
Miltonkram
Suki
Alan133
O.golden_ne:
Heavonearth
Trackd00r
Roflwaffles55:
S0lstice
Not voting:
Austinmcc
Crossfire99
Also voting is mandatory. Moldy jeb is being replaced by unforgiven_ve. 12 alive and it takes 6 to lynch.
First day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point:
Astinmcc RIP
Crossfire
S0lstice
Trackdoor
Its my opinion that s0lstice is green. so its between trackd00r and Crossfire for me.
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and alan i dont see the contradiction you underlined. you were being tunnelled. when you get tunnelled by someone its incredibly hard to do anything but defend yourself for a whole day. thats what i was saying. no contradiction.
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@ Golden
Technically s0Lstice had his vote on HeavOnEarth at the time. Not that it changes much, prplhz just made a mistake in that particular votecount because of s0Lstice's FOS.
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Hi, I am going to post my agendas on the analysis I am working on.
@s0Lstice on suki - I am defending suki
@analysis on austinmcc'd death - He avoided the spotlight and looks fishy to me. Motivations for scums to kill him.
@My main FoS O.Golden_ne - friendliness, no sense of him protecting himself against Lies, and supporting evidence.
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quick reply:
@ Golden
Oh Golden, you mean this+ Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 19:07 alan133 wrote:@ O.GoldenI find Golden carelessly friendly. + Show Spoiler + Reluctant to vote on
suki or alan113 at the current time, because i honestly feel like theyre clashing for the wrong reasons.
i'd be more inclined to lynch suki just because of the tunneling, however i dont feel a Mafia would be so aggressive day one (MAAAASSIVE RISK, but risk = reward?).
He don't "feel" like any of us is scum. He thinks Alan and suki is town. Then he commented about Crossfire + Show Spoiler +Crossfire seems okay too me, i liked his posts. If he posted a few more like it, with about 40% more content (pulled a # out of my ass) on players and some reads/opinions on cases i'd be a happy chappy. Time will tell on this character.
He thinks crossfire is townie, until this + Show Spoiler +honestly i can't believe i missed sciberbia's case on Crossfire99. FML maybe i got the totally wrong read on him. Ima refresh my mind on HeavonEarth and Sciberbia and then post after i mull their feeds over a game of SOTIS. Talk soon lovers.
GauldenWahn How are you sure sciberbia is not a scum, trying to misguide you? You seems to agree with anyone, but when someone else is questioned, you suddenly turn your Super Scum Detector towards said person. I find his reason for voting HeavonEarth echoes from other players, while this is a non issue consider how late he is and there is nothing much to add, These sentences really bothers me. + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
also, if we're too take a hard stance on lurking behaviour. Perhaps we can focus on someone with a smaller content count than myself? Worth a thought mang.
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. The first highlighted sentence seems to me you are trying to avoid a fight, you are afraid to stand out too much, even after being able to reply with a convincing answer for your defense, you just want it to stop right here, right now, "don't look at me". While I understand not everyone wants to stand out - The second statement set off alarm for me. Unless neutrals are involved, everyone "knows" themselves as town. This just shows me you are constantly aware that you want to present yourself as "town". + Show Spoiler +comments:
i like suki's approach to the situation, she's changed it up and she's added some new content to her vote which is refreshing. We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game, i just never found him to be as scummy as say HeavonEarth is looking atm.
SOOO much angleshooting from peoples previous performances in other games. Keep it relevant is all i'm saying.
This post agree with how I painted you so far. You diverts attention to me. What did you add to that post? - I approve suki's new post (Because it is refreshing..? How about comment on the content itself?)
- Everyone look at Alan113!+ Show Spoiler + He obviously needs a little more pressure!
But wait, what did you said a few post ealier? + Show Spoiler +Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point. If I overlooked anything, please point it out. My point: - Golden agrees easily with people - Not what I would expect from a newbie town
- Golden keeps diverting the spotlight away from him without giving much contribution.
- Golden tries to please other players, passively support cases.
O.Golden is my secondary Suspect
I will reformat the contradiction part
Earlier, you said:
Alan113 is now hard-tunneled by suki for the rest of the day. I'm finding this the most frustrating day one tunnel i've seen, i was indecisive regarding suki and then i saw her most recent posts and hoped to god she looked at something other than Alan113. But her argument against Alan113 here is essentially saying that he is mafia because he is defending himself. I'm finding it hard to see how Alan113 can do anything but defend himself up until this point.
But later a few post later:
We'll obviously need to keep an eye on Alan113 just because everyone needs to be pressured several times during the course of the game
There is a mental disconnection. There is nothing in between. You simply agree with people when they post a case.
I don't see how you answered my question:
and alan i dont see the contradiction you underlined. you were being tunnelled. when you get tunnelled by someone its incredibly hard to do anything but defend yourself for a whole day. thats what i was saying. no contradiction.
My premise: You started out defending me, and suggested I got tunnelled too hard. Later, you say I "obviously" should be tunnelled.
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@s0Lstice's on Suki
I agree her first post is a blunder. Pointing out contradictions when there are non, and boldly vote based on that. I also don't like the way she back out from her "meh" case against trackd00r. Someone pointed out that she said it was a "not so strong contradiction" instead of apologizing for misunderstanding.
However, her later posts were more creditable. When I wrote about a "conspiracy" between rolf and suki, rolf shys away while suki attacks me head on. Suki's case was focused on what I have said, and mentioned rolf only for factual references.
I like the way suki backed off from me. She provided a reason other than just switching votes. Also, during her tunnelling, she did asked me to do something "good" for the town to show my alignment instead of just pressuring me.
Her second case on trackd00r was more than just a "meh" case. Her reason was solid, and I suggest that you read it . I don't see why she shouldn't make a case on trackd00r just because she did a "meh" case on him before. On her crossfire post, she was making an analysis on him and is still on the fence regarding crossfire, I don't see that as a scum move. If you are not sure, there's no reason you shouldn't say so.
I don't think she bounces like a ping pong ball. Her actions were justifiable, and give her other townie traits I am putting her on the "town" side.
@Austin's death
I originally thought it was going to be either sciberbia, s0Lstice or me biting the bullet.
I don't have a strong impression on austin before the Day 2 post. I have a slight town read on him, but I remain cautious of him, and thought he had a low profile. The part where he voted Crossfire seems really weird to me. I kept wondering if this is a WiFOM, or he feels he have strong enough reasons to think Crossfire is scum, and it does not cause a NL, so why not.
I went over austin's posts without doubting his town role and realized he contributed much more than I originally thought. He didn't seem to post much, but his analysis is very strong. I thought scum's decision is bad, but now I really wish austin was among the ones that is still alive here.
Austin's main FoS towards the end of the day was Crossfire. However, Crossfire has legitimate reasons to be missing + Show Spoiler +, and Austin drop his suspicion on Crossfire.
I noticed austin's post on O.Golden_ne that no one seems to give a damn about, perhaps other than trackd00r. His case on Golden strikes me as it being similar to the case I brought about. His main argument against Golden is most of Golden wrote was fillers, despite it looks like he is contributing.
All for all, reading austin's post convinced me to re-raise my suspicion towards O.Golden_ne.
@O.Golden_ne
Despite me refuting myself previously, I would like to re-establish my case against Golden due to austin's filters. The reason that caused myself to doubt this case was due to HeavonEarth's vote on Gold, but now I dismissed it as it can potentially be a bus.
Please take a look a the spoiler on the previous post I wrote, I dumped my whole case against him there, and I don't want to spam my case
My summary for Golden is
- O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone.
- O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums
- O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said.
- O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree.
- O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself
- O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler +
Its my opinion that s0lstice is green. so its between trackd00r and Crossfire for me.
All in all, O.Golden_ne looks really fishy and right at this moment, I am comfortable to lynch him
@Suki on Trackd00r
My day 1 impression on Trackd00r is that he is very careful around people and fast to accuse. I felt like this is because he don't know who to really trust. It also looks like he is trying to contribute. He posts his analysis and has his original opinion.
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Lol last time i ever stick my neck out for someone i think is town, what a retard alan. your argument that i contradict myself is invalid. I don't ever contradict myself, i purely state that no-one is ever confirmed town until they flip after saying that i think you are safe. read it again bro.
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•O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone.
Crossfire + Trackdoor
•O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums
I dont agree with you.
•O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said.
Theres somethign wrong with sharing the same opinion as another player? ok....
•O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree.
you are a retard.
•O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself
only because i know i'm town and its a waste of time. far out man. now i'm gonna get slack for saying im town! haha the mafia will be reading this laughing his arse off.
•O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler +
i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar.
my case on alan. he is a wanker.
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On June 16 2012 18:52 alan133 wrote:
@My main FoS O.Golden_ne - friendliness, no sense of him protecting himself against Lies, and supporting evidence.
alan113 proposes that we lynch anyone who is friendly.
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United Kingdom36160 Posts
Play nice! Attack the argument, not the player.
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I changed my mind on vigilante claim. Originally I thought it is bad because I think a confirmed blue will always get killed off. However, I realize one shot vigil literally a Vanilla Townie since he has no role to play.
If scum decided to go after him at night, he is taking the shot for any other potential blue.
I am the Vigilante and I shot roflwaffle55
@O.Golden_ne
Addressing to some of your answers:
+ Show Spoiler +•O.Golden_ne holds little to no doubt to anyone. Crossfire + Trackdoor I am talking about in your day 1 play, it strikes me that you treat everyone as a townie•O.Golden_ne agrees with everyone, especially on cases not against scums I dont agree with you. Town or scum, no one will agree getting themselves lynched•O.Golden_ne made a few long posts, but it mostly echoes what other people had said. Theres somethign wrong with sharing the same opinion as another player? ok.... I am saying •O.Golden_ne does do not remember his own arguments for a case. He forgets about it in another post and made contradicting arguments. It feels like he blatantly made arguments so he can agree. you are a retard. I suggest you keep clam. If there is something wrong about it you can simply say it out. Personal attacks and flipping out is a anti-town trait•O.Golden_ne redirects the spotlight away from himself only because i know i'm town and its a waste of time. far out man. now i'm gonna get slack for saying im town! haha the mafia will be reading this laughing his arse off. I agree. Scum and town will want to do this.•O.Golden_ne gives very little insights. He merely say "I don't like this", "I feel like" without saying why. There is a more recent example: + Show Spoiler + i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar. I can actually come out with a better answer for youFirst day: HeavonEarth dies with the minimum 6 of 6 votes. Roflwaffle being one of them. If they could mafia would have saved him and forced a mislynch. So i think that 2 mafia WOULD NOT have voted for Heavonearth first day. It just doesnt pay to have him lynched. A NL would have benefited them so much more. So under that reasoning its my opinion that any of these people had a likely mafia flip from this point: I missed this.
alan113 proposes that we lynch anyone who is friendly.
On day 1, townie has 0 clue. Being friendly shows that you are not concerned about a person's alignment, that would fit a scum's PoV.
I looked at the HeavonEarth's post that have a link to one of Gold's game's filter as town. He is wrongly accused yet he replied calmly. This makes me curious: when Austinmcc questioned Gold, Gold seems slightly annoyed. Gold is obviously annoyed at my questions. I see quite a contrasting personality.
Seems like HeavonEarth's went so far to do a Gold analysis. I counted out Gold in my last last post because of this, then it strikes me: It feels like Gold is the only person HeavonEarth cares about, so I don't count out a bus.
Also, Gold, I find your analysis interesting and opened me up to a different perspective. I am waiting for more people to comment on my case on you.
Also, trackd00r, who is your FoS and what do you think of Gold?
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@ Alan and All
I actually like alan113's case.
I must say that Golden answered very aggressively to alan's case. Compared of what I see in his previous posts, he was more relaxed while giving reads and stuff.
I find his defense quite worrying: ''you are a retard.'' , ''i dont hold any undergraduate degree, i'm hardly a scholar.'' are points which clearly show a state of stress.
While it is true that anyone can get defensive, I find it quite weird that Golden is acting like this, because after we killed two mafia in just 72 hours, it must be a very pleasant and comfortable time for us. Assuming that he is town, he should be pretty happy and calm in the search of looking for the last scum, but on the other hand...
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I just wanted to pop in quickly before I head out for the day. I had planned to do analysis this morning when I woke up, but I slept in. I will be gone the whole day but after I am back I will post my thoughts.
It would be really really great if everyone who has not done so posts their response to my case on trackd00r.
And trackd00r, for your defense against my case rather than come up with another point by point rebuttal, I would like you to demonstrate your ability to scum hunt and make solid reads against who you think should be the best day 2 lynch. Like I said, the thing I find most suspicious about you is that you haven't committed to any reads of scum or suspicious behaviour. Up to this point none of your posts look like they're actively helping town. Well, it's now Day 2, THREE people are dead. There should be plenty of evidence. You have no excuse now.
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Nice shooting there tex!
Alright, check this out. I have a plan
We are in pretty good shape with only 1 scum left. Let's assume for a moment that from here on out we only miss-lynch. How many would it take before we lose?
Right now: 8 town, 1 scum
After Day 2 lynch: 7 town, 1 scum
After Night 2 kill: 6 town, 1 scum
After Day 3 lynch: 5 town, 1 scum
After Night 3 kill: 4 town, 1 scum
After Day 4 lynch: 3 town, 1 scum
After Night 4 kill: 2 town, 1 scum
After Day 5 lynch: 1 town, 1 scum (scum victory)
By my count, that gives us 3 miss-lynches to play with out of the 4 lynches remaining., assuming we don't get any medic protects.
All we have to do is make a list to lynch down. Take the four most likely candidates and lynch them one-by-one.
Here is my proposed list:
1. suki
2. O.Golden_ne
3. Unforgiven_ve
4. trackd00r
In my estimation, there is only one other candidate that might go on this list, and that's Crossfire99.
I don't put Crossfire99 on this list because he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 following HeavOnEarth's flip. I find it very unlikely that scum would do this.
Does anybody see any chance that the remaining scum isn't on that list? We have enough lynches to kill them all, and therefore I think this plan pretty much guarantees victory for town.
Everyone please tell me what you think.
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@ s0lstice
Is that list in any particular order? I mean, is it based on your reads or in everyone's cases?
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It's based on my own reads and from who other people are suspecting. The nice part about it is if you agree the last scum is in that group, the order doesn't matter. We'll hit the last scum before they reach their win condition.
I don't want this to devolve into an argument over the order. So its that order or abandon the plan. If you are on the list and are town, remember you win with town whether you are alive or dead. This should not factor into your decision.
Ask yourself if you agree the last scum is in that group. If you think they are, support the plan. Post that you are in.
If you don't think last scum is on that list, do not support the plan. We will expect an explanation why you don't think the last scum is on the list.
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@s0Lstice
+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2012 02:42 s0Lstice wrote:
Nice shooting there tex!
Alright, check this out. I have a plan
We are in pretty good shape with only 1 scum left. Let's assume for a moment that from here on out we only miss-lynch. How many would it take before we lose?
Right now: 8 town, 1 scum
After Day 2 lynch: 7 town, 1 scum
After Night 2 kill: 6 town, 1 scum
After Day 3 lynch: 5 town, 1 scum
After Night 3 kill: 4 town, 1 scum
After Day 4 lynch: 3 town, 1 scum
After Night 4 kill: 2 town, 1 scum
After Day 5 lynch: 1 town, 1 scum (scum victory)
By my count, that gives us 3 miss-lynches to play with out of the 4 lynches remaining., assuming we don't get any medic protects.
All we have to do is make a list to lynch down. Take the four most likely candidates and lynch them one-by-one.
Here is my proposed list:
1. suki
2. O.Golden_ne
3. Unforgiven_ve
4. trackd00r
In my estimation, there is only one other candidate that might go on this list, and that's Crossfire99.
I don't put Crossfire99 on this list because he was the first to go after roflewaffles55 following HeavOnEarth's flip. I find it very unlikely that scum would do this.
Does anybody see any chance that the remaining scum isn't on that list? We have enough lynches to kill them all, and therefore I think this plan pretty much guarantees victory for town.
Everyone please tell me what you think.
I think this is a pretty good idea, but I prefer this queue.
1. s0Lstice
2. O.Golden_ne
3. trackd00r
4. -undecided yet-
I had a town read on you, but your suggestion flashed a big BIG WARNING sign.
Don't take me wrong, I think it is normal for a townie to suggest this, but this has no guarantee.
This is my scenario:
Assuming s0Lstice is scum
In this scenario, it is scum's guaranteed win.
Advantage/Disadvantage from SCUM's POV
+Scum guaranteed win
+After town agreed upon a fixed lynch target, it halts all discussions.
+I foresee chaos when villagers begin to doubt on the lynch targets, closer and closer to the end.
-Bussing early puts scum in a very bad position no matter how you look at it, but this is what he cooked up all the while, and if he managed to pull it off, this is a confirmed scum win.
-It will take 15 long days for the game to end, assuming host will not allow a change in day/night time.
The short answer is I am not a big fan of the plan. If I ever agree to go with this, s0Lsitce has to go first for a fail safe. After that, we will have to narrow down to 3 scummiest player. 3 out of 7 (1 confirmed) by random chance, a little less than 50% (42.86%), not really bad since we can also rely on town/scum reads.
Given my condition that you must die to proof your innocent, do you, s0Lstice, still want to proceed with the plan?
Others: I want to hear your opinion on this. Think about my doubts on the plan and my condition, but the priority is still to get your 3rd scum read. It is late over here, so I will go through s0Lstice's filter again tomorrow morning. My comfortable lynch targets for today is O.Golden_ne and trackd00r
See you guys.
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@ s0Lstice
I don't see a huge problem with this. If we have a cop I'd suggest he/she checks into that group and clears one of them or confirms them as scum. This would depend on our last scum not being a godfather. Assuming we mislynch today, I'd suggest that the possible cop claim tomorrow(?) and give us his reads. I haven't thought it through completely so I may be off on when our possible cop should claim. Maybe he just shouldn't claim until we're about to lynch a townie? I'm not quite sure. I'll crunch the numbers later.
Other than that my only suggestion would be to make sure our list is flexible. If the potential scum is outside of that list, they would of course give you the green light on this plan. Make sure that this list doesn't destroy our ability to effectively pressure and hunt scum. Keep other players on your radar. Keep up pressure on players.
With all that in mind I'd suggest we lynch into Golden or trackd00r. Their votes at the end of D1 were face saving gestures rather than anything that contributed towards our lynch. I honestly don't see how one of them isn't scum.
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EPT
