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On April 27 2012 01:28 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 01:25 layabout wrote:interestingly enough marv BK writes: I'll have my thoughts on Uon and Ottoxol in my next post. and delivers us this: On April 26 2012 04:45 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Can someone point out to me why all this suspicion about Ottoxlol? I'm having trouble finding any big cases against him. His earlier posts look fine to me. On April 26 2012 08:54 BroodKingEXE wrote:
##Vote: Zephird I'm voting for Zephird he's posted enough that he should be able to answer questions but hasn't. Yes, this is also something I had noticed. The way I read it at the time was in the 2nd post, he was following through on his 1st - he was looking at Ottoxlol, and he hadn't found anything major and so was asking. Not great since Ottoxlol has posted scummily in parts, but it does suggest he went to look like he said. What he didn't do is post his thoughts on Sentinel as promised. That's fact.
If he was follwoing through and asking for us to tell him stuff, then surely he should also follow through and either produce stuff and tell that he judges zephirdd to be scum and ottoxlol to be __>not as good a lynch a zephird<__ . Then place his vote on zephirdd. He should also do this when there is enough time left for people to assess what he says and possibly respond to it. His vote would then clearly be on zephirdd. It is as if he was reluctant to put his vote on zephirdd and only put his vote on at the very end.
Consider the scenario in which BroodkingExe, Risen and Ottoxlol are all scum. Can you think of a more reasonable one?
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On April 27 2012 01:39 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 01:28 marvellosity wrote:On April 27 2012 01:25 layabout wrote:interestingly enough marv BK writes: I'll have my thoughts on Uon and Ottoxol in my next post. and delivers us this: On April 26 2012 04:45 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Can someone point out to me why all this suspicion about Ottoxlol? I'm having trouble finding any big cases against him. His earlier posts look fine to me. On April 26 2012 08:54 BroodKingEXE wrote:
##Vote: Zephird I'm voting for Zephird he's posted enough that he should be able to answer questions but hasn't. Yes, this is also something I had noticed. The way I read it at the time was in the 2nd post, he was following through on his 1st - he was looking at Ottoxlol, and he hadn't found anything major and so was asking. Not great since Ottoxlol has posted scummily in parts, but it does suggest he went to look like he said. What he didn't do is post his thoughts on Sentinel as promised. That's fact. If he was follwoing through and asking for us to tell him stuff, then surely he should also follow through and either produce stuff and tell that he judges zephirdd to be scum and ottoxlol to be __ >not as good a lynch a zephird<__ . Then place his vote on zephirdd. He should also do this when there is enough time left for people to assess what he says and possibly respond to it. His vote would then clearly be on zephirdd. It is as if he was reluctant to put his vote on zephirdd and only put his vote on at the very end. Consider the scenario in which BroodkingExe, Risen and Ottoxlol are all scum. Can you think of a more reasonable one?
I think I'm not quite grasping your point of view. The way I saw things unfold were
1) Broodking outlined why he found Zephirdd scummy, said he'd look at ottoxlol/sentinel
2) Looked at Ottoxlol, didn't find anything, asked town about him
3) He didn't find anything convincing on Ottoxlol, so placed his vote on his stronger read from earlier (Zephirdd)
Somewhere in this timeline is the failure to examine Sentinel as promised. It almost seems what you're saying is that he should have produced an anti-case on Ottoxlol? which I don't quite get.
Primarily the dodgy thing is his total failure to look at Sentinel, no?
Finally, to your trio - yes, it's entirely plausible. But it could just be connections that panned out that way. For example, you seem to think Risen and Ottoxlol are probably town.
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On April 27 2012 01:50 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 01:39 layabout wrote:On April 27 2012 01:28 marvellosity wrote:On April 27 2012 01:25 layabout wrote:interestingly enough marv BK writes: I'll have my thoughts on Uon and Ottoxol in my next post. and delivers us this: On April 26 2012 04:45 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Can someone point out to me why all this suspicion about Ottoxlol? I'm having trouble finding any big cases against him. His earlier posts look fine to me. It looks like my townread on Ottoxlol is incorrect, because it would require me to make too many assumptions to maintain it. On April 26 2012 08:54 BroodKingEXE wrote:
##Vote: Zephird I'm voting for Zephird he's posted enough that he should be able to answer questions but hasn't. Yes, this is also something I had noticed. The way I read it at the time was in the 2nd post, he was following through on his 1st - he was looking at Ottoxlol, and he hadn't found anything major and so was asking. Not great since Ottoxlol has posted scummily in parts, but it does suggest he went to look like he said. What he didn't do is post his thoughts on Sentinel as promised. That's fact. If he was follwoing through and asking for us to tell him stuff, then surely he should also follow through and either produce stuff and tell that he judges zephirdd to be scum and ottoxlol to be __ >not as good a lynch a zephird<__ . Then place his vote on zephirdd. He should also do this when there is enough time left for people to assess what he says and possibly respond to it. His vote would then clearly be on zephirdd. It is as if he was reluctant to put his vote on zephirdd and only put his vote on at the very end. Consider the scenario in which BroodkingExe, Risen and Ottoxlol are all scum. Can you think of a more reasonable one? I think I'm not quite grasping your point of view. The way I saw things unfold were 1) Broodking outlined why he found Zephirdd scummy, said he'd look at ottoxlol/sentinel 2) Looked at Ottoxlol, didn't find anything, asked town about him 3) He didn't find anything convincing on Ottoxlol, so placed his vote on his stronger read from earlier (Zephirdd) Somewhere in this timeline is the failure to examine Sentinel as promised. It almost seems what you're saying is that he should have produced an anti-case on Ottoxlol? which I don't quite get. Primarily the dodgy thing is his total failure to look at Sentinel, no? Finally, to your trio - yes, it's entirely plausible. But it could just be connections that panned out that way. For example, you seem to think Risen and Ottoxlol are probably town.
Why on earth would he wait until 8 minutes before the deadline when he claimed to have looked at ottoxlol hours before then.
for me the lynch time (on TL) is 9:00
05:00 4 hours til lynch
Ottoxlol has 6 votes
zephirdd has 2 votes
MidnightGaldius, St. Daniel and Marvellosity vote for zephird
07:00 2 hours before deadline
votes are: zephird 5 votes ottoxlol 6 votes
5-6 Ottoz to be lynched
+ Show Spoiler +St.Daniel --> Zephirdd
Janaan --> Zephirdd
marvellosity --> Zephirdd
johnnywup --> Zephirdd
MidnightGladius --> Zephirdd
+ Show Spoiler +Mementoss --> Ottoxlol
Ghost_403 --> Ottoxlol
Risen --> Ottoxlol
Bill Murray --> Ottoxlol
[UoN]Sentinel --> Ottoxlol
Zephirrd --> Ottoxlol
07:17 paqman votes zephird 6-6 Ottoxlol to be lynched
07:26 Ottoxlol votes zephird 7-6 zephirdd to be lynched
08:26 Mattchew votes for Ottoxlol 7-7 zephird to be lynched
08:36 Layabout votes for Ottoxlol 7-8 Ottoxlol to be lynched
08:52: BroodkingExe votes for zephird 8-8 Ottoxlol to be lynched
08:57 Risen changes to zephirdd 9-7 zephirdd to be lynched
08:59 Risen changes back to Ottoxlol 8-8 zephird to be lynched
09:00 zephird lynched.
Lookes to me like scum were happy to see zephird get lynch but after Matchew and i voted for ottoxlol they decided to switch the lynch back onto town. Then Risen does a weird switch back to make himself look clueless in the hope that he will be excused on "meta grounds" and to allow his team mates to bus him for towncred.
OR we have a townie that waited until the last possible moment to place his vote on the player that he thought was scum. AND a townie that decided to wait until there was no time left for a townie to change their vote to change the person being lynched for a reason that is ludicrous, AND these players made the decisions to act this way independently of each other, AND this caused a town player to be lynched.
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I got how it went wrong. if ottox were to flip scum, risen needs to be lynched because he is either scummy or ill-informed(hi mods).
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Ok, I see what you're getting at.
I can still understand Broodking voting the way he did if he was town - express scummy thoughts on Zeph, voice townie concerns on ottoxlol, finally sees nothing for why he should vote ottoxlol and votes for Zephirdd.
BUT - your narrative also makes sense. Whichever way you swing it, leaving it THAT LATE to vote is... well, it's a bit ugh. And it could very well appear that Broodking and Risen colluded to get Ottoxlol lynched, with Risen playing the weird switch-back card.
It all boils down to this though - your narrative only makes sense if you believe Ottoxlol to be scum. If you don't, then it falls apart.
You've expressed more than once that you feel Ottoxlol to be probably town. Is the sequence of voting at the end enough to now convince you that he's scum? Is that actually enough?
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EBWOP: i wrote this in the wrong place, it does not belong in the quote:
It looks like my townread on Ottoxlol is incorrect, because it would require me to make too many assumptions to maintain it.
To elaborate:
Namely Broodking and Risen coordinated voteswitches at the last minute to change the lynch. The idea that both of them are town is very difficult for me to accept. If they are not town then both of them being scum seems to make the most sense and it would also lead me to think that Ottoxlol is also scum.
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layabout... i need pretty colors and arrows again plz
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On April 27 2012 02:37 marvellosity wrote:
Ok, I see what you're getting at.
I can still understand Broodking voting the way he did if he was town - express scummy thoughts on Zeph, voice townie concerns on ottoxlol, finally sees nothing for why he should vote ottoxlol and votes for Zephirdd.
BUT - your narrative also makes sense. Whichever way you swing it, leaving it THAT LATE to vote is... well, it's a bit ugh. And it could very well appear that Broodking and Risen colluded to get Ottoxlol lynched, with Risen playing the weird switch-back card.
It all boils down to this though - your narrative only makes sense if you believe Ottoxlol to be scum. If you don't, then it falls apart.
You've expressed more than once that you feel Ottoxlol to be probably town. Is the sequence of voting at the end enough to now convince you that he's scum? Is that actually enough?
If risen is scum then the switch to a townie makes no sense. If a townie would have been lynched anyway why would he put himself into the spotlight like that? Especially when you consider that he auto-assumed he would be lynched for it.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On April 27 2012 02:40 layabout wrote:
EBWOP: i wrote this in the wrong place, it does not belong in the quote:
It looks like my townread on Ottoxlol is incorrect, because it would require me to make too many assumptions to maintain it.
To elaborate:
Namely Broodking and Risen coordinated voteswitches at the last minute to change the lynch. The idea that both of them are town is very difficult for me to accept. If they are not town then both of them being scum seems to make the most sense and it would also lead me to think that Ottoxlol is also scum.
Ok, question for you:
If Broodking/Risen are scum, why would Broodking not place his vote on Zephirdd considerably earlier (thus getting Zephirdd to 8 votes first) rather than perform this ridiculous act at the end of voting?
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Layabout's post w/ the timeframe seems to clear everything up for me. I still believe Monsieur Otto is scum, so I'll have an easy time believing all 3 of them are mafias. I could see some logic behind Brood being a townie and deliberately pressed for time, but unlikely.
The question is, if Otto is town, what would be the motives of Brood and Risen? I don't see any clear ones for now, so I'll go about believing Otto is scum.
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Also, concering saving Otto, perhaps one of the two is GF and they're saving Otto who is a goon and has KP?
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On April 27 2012 02:43 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 02:40 layabout wrote:
EBWOP: i wrote this in the wrong place, it does not belong in the quote:
It looks like my townread on Ottoxlol is incorrect, because it would require me to make too many assumptions to maintain it.
To elaborate:
Namely Broodking and Risen coordinated voteswitches at the last minute to change the lynch. The idea that both of them are town is very difficult for me to accept. If they are not town then both of them being scum seems to make the most sense and it would also lead me to think that Ottoxlol is also scum.
Ok, question for you: If Broodking/Risen are scum, why would Broodking not place his vote on Zephirdd considerably earlier (thus getting Zephirdd to 8 votes first) rather than perform this ridiculous act at the end of voting?
Why would somebody on the mafia team be reluctant to place his vote on the wagon of a townie?
Remember at 4:45 when Broodking posted about Ottox, zephird only had 2 votes (Jaanan and Johnnywub).
zephird gathered some votes.
+ Show Spoiler [aside] +MG was one of these votes and since i think he is scum it makes sense to me that scum might not want to vote at the same time to oppose a wagon on one of their team mates.
I will wager that by this point at least 1 member of their team on the zephird wagon. In this sense it makes sense for them to hold off on voting for him immediately because they would ideally like to keep the number of them on the townie wagon as low as possible since those players get more heavily scrutinised.
by 07:17 it was tied 6-6 and Ottoxlol still had his vote. So from this point onwards they could get zephird lynched and Ottoxlol can do it by legitimately saying that he is trying to save himself. So there was no need for anymore of them to be on the wagon.
When 2 more votes came in fairly late for ottox they needed to act and so they did.+ Show Spoiler [aside] + Risen ending up on Ottoxlol would also show just how much they did not want to be on the votes for a mislynch
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Guys, if the vigs dont shoot tonight(or if there are none) I think we need to look more at lurkers.
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On April 27 2012 03:04 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Guys, if the vigs dont shoot tonight(or if there are none) I think we need to look more at lurkers.
So you?
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Yeah, if you can find anything scummy.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On April 27 2012 02:57 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 02:43 marvellosity wrote:On April 27 2012 02:40 layabout wrote:
EBWOP: i wrote this in the wrong place, it does not belong in the quote:
It looks like my townread on Ottoxlol is incorrect, because it would require me to make too many assumptions to maintain it.
To elaborate:
Namely Broodking and Risen coordinated voteswitches at the last minute to change the lynch. The idea that both of them are town is very difficult for me to accept. If they are not town then both of them being scum seems to make the most sense and it would also lead me to think that Ottoxlol is also scum.
Ok, question for you: If Broodking/Risen are scum, why would Broodking not place his vote on Zephirdd considerably earlier (thus getting Zephirdd to 8 votes first) rather than perform this ridiculous act at the end of voting? Why would somebody on the mafia team be reluctant to place his vote on the wagon of a townie? Remember at 4:45 when Broodking posted about Ottox, zephird only had 2 votes (Jaanan and Johnnywub). zephird gathered some votes. + Show Spoiler [aside] +MG was one of these votes and since i think he is scum it makes sense to me that scum might not want to vote at the same time to oppose a wagon on one of their team mates. I will wager that by this point at least 1 member of their team on the zephird wagon. In this sense it makes sense for them to hold off on voting for him immediately because they would ideally like to keep the number of them on the townie wagon as low as possible since those players get more heavily scrutinised. by 07:17 it was tied 6-6 and Ottoxlol still had his vote. So from this point onwards they could get zephird lynched and Ottoxlol can do it by legitimately saying that he is trying to save himself. So there was no need for anymore of them to be on the wagon. When 2 more votes came in fairly late for ottox they needed to act and so they did. + Show Spoiler [aside] + Risen ending up on Ottoxlol would also show just how much they did not want to be on the votes for a mislynch
This all makes me so uncomfortable. None of what you say doesn't make sense, but it doesn't HAVE to make sense.
If scum were analysing the situation, I think it was fairly clear by Mattchew's posting that he would favour Ottoxlol over Zephirdd. That only leaves you as the wildcard, although I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) you had expressed the opinion that Ottoxlol was a bit more likely to be scum than Zephirdd, although you believed them both to be town.
It may well be possible that scum were trying to avoid too many people on the Zephirdd wagon, but your/Matt's votes cannot have been totally unexpected. We can also discount Ottoxlol's vote because town or scum he's going to vote to save himself.
It strikes me as an incredibly risky play for them to bank on one of you two voting for Zephirdd, when the alternative is as it works out - Broodking votes superlate and Risen does his ridiculous switch shenanigans.
In my eyes it would seem 'safer' for Broodking to put his vote on Zephirdd anytime between his 04:45 post and somewhere around 07:00, thus avoiding the possibility that occurred. And his vote wouldn't be shocking as he'd already called Zephirdd scummy.
It would also assume scumteam came to the decision to save Ottoxlol with some desperate last-minute votes rather than bus him and try to get some towncred.
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EBWOP I was stuck in a deadline between day1 and day2 if you guys were wondering.
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+ Show Spoiler +On April 27 2012 02:57 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2012 02:43 marvellosity wrote:On April 27 2012 02:40 layabout wrote:
EBWOP: i wrote this in the wrong place, it does not belong in the quote:
It looks like my townread on Ottoxlol is incorrect, because it would require me to make too many assumptions to maintain it.
To elaborate:
Namely Broodking and Risen coordinated voteswitches at the last minute to change the lynch. The idea that both of them are town is very difficult for me to accept. If they are not town then both of them being scum seems to make the most sense and it would also lead me to think that Ottoxlol is also scum.
Ok, question for you: If Broodking/Risen are scum, why would Broodking not place his vote on Zephirdd considerably earlier (thus getting Zephirdd to 8 votes first) rather than perform this ridiculous act at the end of voting? Why would somebody on the mafia team be reluctant to place his vote on the wagon of a townie? Remember at 4:45 when Broodking posted about Ottox, zephird only had 2 votes (Jaanan and Johnnywub). zephirdd gathered some votes. + Show Spoiler [aside] +MG was one of these votes and since i think he is scum it makes sense to me that scum might not want to vote at the same time to oppose a wagon on one of their team mates. I will wager that by this point at least 1 member of their team on the zephirdd wagon. In this sense it makes sense for them to hold off on voting for him immediately because they would ideally like to keep the number of them on the townie wagon as low as possible since those players get more heavily scrutinised. by 07:17 it was tied 6-6 and Ottoxlol still had his vote. So from this point onwards they could get zephird lynched and Ottoxlol can do it by legitimately saying that he is trying to save himself. So there was no need for anymore of them to be on the wagon. When 2 more votes came in fairly late for ottox they needed to act and so they did. + Show Spoiler [aside] + Risen ending up on Ottoxlol would also show just how much they did not want to be on the votes for a mislynch
I would like to add that between ottoxlol BroodkingExe and Risen they had the capacity to create a 4 vote swing. So the entire time they would be confident that they could save their team mate ottoxlol and feel less need to move onto zephridd unless they were made to.
+ Show Spoiler [crazytalk] +If their other member was not on zephirdd they could create a 5 vote swing and if they were on Ottolox a 6 vote swing.
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Matt and laya said they will vote for me a lot before they did, if I am scum and Brood wanted to save me he could have voted sooner so Risen's swap is not required to save me.
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On April 27 2012 03:38 Ottoxlol wrote:
Matt and laya said they will vote for me a lot before they did, if I am scum and Brood wanted to save me he could have voted sooner so Risen's swap is not required to save me.
Lets say for a second, that you actually are town and you either get shot or lynched this very moment, how do you think that fares for brood and Risen?
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EPT
