EPT
Mafia 2012 Awards - Page 6
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
| ||
|
gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
I already mentioned in the Obs QT that there are certain "absurd" plays that scum would never make, and yet because of that it's viable for them to make them. Midnight did something like that with his vote/unvote of ghost on D2, and Risen with his switch from Ottox to Zephird. I correctly identified Midnight as town because of it, but not Risen. I should have known that if Risen could have gone against a VE lynch and played more to his town meta on D1/N1 as scum (like I said in that analysis on N1), then he'd have the balls to make such absurd plays. Although it's not like I could really think straight this game after D2 >_> | ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
For making it a 50/50 lynch, I nominate Mattchew. He had a great counterclaim, and I feel bad for not supporting it. I did not feel pressure whatsoever at the point that Risen, who was scared of being lynched all game, is indicating I was trolling during In fact, I was the only mafia player wanting you and Mattchew to PLAY IT OUT if I got lynched, and to not counterclaim. That night was irrelevant, as it was riddled with WIFOM. I was the obvious lynch, from a town perspective, and I am very surprised that I was kept alive for a 50/50 lynch in LYLO considering I was an 100% lynch and an easy case. Sorry to go off on a tangent, but Mattchew really motivated me, and lead the scum team. It was a miracle we won after we lost the position we were in from that St.Daniel modkill. @gonzaw, I did it with my claim vig then unclaim and distance from Mattchew | ||
|
gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
As in, yes you could say that trolling and saying something like "I'm vig...wait I'm not" or "I'm scum people!" or something could be considered "absurd"; but it's very instantaneous and easy to do, by both town and scum, and it doesn't have any lasting or meaningful consequences (other than people berating you for trolling) to be considered absurd either. For instance, Risen's switch did have lasting consequences, mostly that everybody thought he was scum sacrificing himself for quite a time (at least until the "that play is so absurd he must be town" reasoning kicked in). Also, the point of these "absurd" plays, is that they don't contradict the assumption that you are town. If you start saying "Okay people I'm scum, you got me just lynch me" and then 10 hours later you say "Oh I was trolling there sorry" nobody will think you are town at all. Also, the other thing about these absurd plays, is not only about other people determining your alignment just because of it, it's about if they further a scum agenda or not (if you were scum). The absurd plays I'm talking about are the ones that don't, or at least don't in a preliminary analysis. For instance, in a preliminary analysis, Risen's switch doesn't further a scum agenda if he were scum. There is 1 townie getting lynched, and the other one is a townie too. He knows that if one of them is lynched and flips green it's likely the other will be misslynched in the future. He also has his vote already placed and is fine with his current position. Making the switch to kill Zephird before Ottox wouldn't push an apparent scum agenda, because he knows that the one he saves will likely get lynched without his intervention either, and the only thing he is doing is making it VERY likely that he will be lynched himself by that action alone. "Would scum take this risk just because?" The answer is "NO". However, if townies analyze this above situation, then they will reach the same conclusion. Therefore they will conclude Risen is town. That is a nice "absurd" reward if he were to make that play, which is what I'm talking about. Another example.I analyzed Midnights switch vote towards ghost and unvote, and I tried to come up with a scum agenda. "Why would a scum Midnight do this?". He could have done it to disrupt the thread a little bit, but nothing else, he doesn't have any reward whatsoever. Now, what would he be risking? He risks everybody FoSing him because he FoSed someone else without any reason at all, and then unvoted him immediately and dropped the subject entirely. People get confused and therefore suspicious, and lo and behold he got lynched afterwards. "Would scum take this risk just because?". The answer is "NO". However, if townies reach this conclusion, they will conclude he's town. That's a nice "absurd" reward again, so if he takes the risk and does that he can get people to think he's town. There are similarities in these situations too. If Risen was scum, and hadn't done that play, he would have been fine. He wouldn't be likely a lynch candidate soon for instance, and could still play normally later. It was not necessary at all to make an "absurd" play if he was scum (he wasn't in the chopping block for instance). Same with Midnight, not doing that wouldn't have caused him much troubles if he was scum. As in, he would have less suspicion on him, and could do something later, it wasn't anything definitive so it wasn't necessary to do so at all either. However they differ a lot in one thing: the chance that townies will actually analyze the situation. I don't think nobody ever decided to analyze Midnight's ghost vote and it's motivation. No townie playing the game would either. Why? Because it was very subtle, not many people could even have picked it up when trying to determine Midnight's alignment. Another thing is that said action makes it easier for people to think as just "scummy" while not analyzing it's motivation/intent, it's just another "scummy" act and nothing else. Meaning if people were to actually try to analyze it, it's more likely they would analyze it wrong, or at least not in the previous way I mentioned. However, most if not all townies would analyze Risen's action. For one it was a game-changing one, and it was pretty apparent, it wasn't subtle at all. People would obviously try to analyze it. Another thing, is that the analysis of it would be pretty straight-forward. People would instantly think "If Risen is scum, then he wouldn't have done this if Ottox was town", meaning they would instantly figure out the crux of said "absurd" play. I guess this is what made Risen's action more viable for a scum to take. No sane scum would take Midnight's option, because of what I said before, he could NEVER gain any reward from using an "absurd" play, because nobody would figure out it's absurd in the first place. People would instantly figure out Risen's action was absurd (if he was scum), so I guess he had more motivation to do so. Again I fucked up at not trying to analyze this last thing (that Risen would instantly know people would say "Darn it's impossible he's scum because of it"), so yeah I thought he was town because of it later I guess Risen just has enormous balls and doesn't care about the risks, and had enough luck it worked. I guess I'll be expecting these things from him in later games. Anyways, I guess now the point is not only trying to discover these "absurd" plays, but also trying to analyze if they are pretty apparent or not, and if people are likely to interpret it as "absurd" or not. If the answer is NO to both of them, then it's very likely you are dealing with a townie (or a scum who did it unintentionally, somehow). If the answer to any of them is YES, then it's more difficult to figure it out, so it's better to just not use it to assume he's town and disregard it until more info comes up. | ||
|
Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
| ||
|
PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
On May 06 2012 11:58 Mattchew wrote: Just wanna say that gonzaw if you believe you and pac actually caught me day1 (with the reasoning given) you guys are gonna mislynch me alot in the future I was so sure you were scum when I kept tunneling you but other townies told me to cool down so I made the mistake of completely dropping you off my radar >.> I was also never 100% confident whenever I made my scum reads against Risen, good play by him. I feel so stupid for voting sentinel and if I checked in an hour before the lynch I could have made a voteswitch, but I don't think that would have made a difference anyways. | ||
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
An excellent improvement in play from one game to the next. Serious potential to be had there. | ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On May 06 2012 22:16 Radfield wrote: There is no award for it, but the difference in Bluelightz play from I'm a Cop you Idiot and Wheel of Fortune Mafia is startling. An excellent improvement in play from one game to the next. Serious potential to be had there. I second this. I think Most Improved is a possibility in the future if he continues. He may not be setting the world on fire but he was not willfully destructive and was able to make his alignment clear very very early. If he keeps using the advice that people give him he will be a shoe-in for this one come December | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On May 07 2012 13:42 Ace wrote: How did he make his alignment clear? I'm still confused about that one. Maybe it comes from playing lot of games with him but he was clearly making an effort. When he stridently took on you I knew he was town. He was getting frustrated because people were not listening to him and was generally invested in how things went. It doesn't work for other players but if Blue looks even remotely bothered with winning he is likely town. The fact that I was agreeing with him sealed it for me. Anyway, this is probably premature until I play another game with him. I am just pleased that he is improving. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
ETA: He made an effort in DFM2 also but wasn't considered "Town" by too many people until late in the game. | ||
|
Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
On May 07 2012 13:48 Ace wrote: So for bluelightz just making an effort > Town? Interesting. ETA: He made an effort in DFM2 also but wasn't considered "Town" by too many people until late in the game. Would scum make 5 cases in around 24 hours? | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 07 2012 13:42 Ace wrote: How did he make his alignment clear? I'm still confused about that one. I thought he made his alignment very clear as well. I had him as an obvious townie as well although I HATED it when he bursted out with his top-5 townreads during n1... I'm going to take that as a lesson: Never pressure blue at night because that guy is going to burst like a balloon and tell mafia exactly what to shoot although I told him to shut up about his green reads. So I was really mad at him for doing that but I still thought he's a townie. | ||
|
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 08 2012 00:44 Bluelightz wrote: Would scum make 5 cases in around 24 hours? Sure. It's a relatively common scum strategy - flood the town with accusations and hope that a bandwagon starts on one of the townies. Granted, usually, the cases are a little weak, but that's just a matter of time and effort. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On May 08 2012 00:55 Qatol wrote: Sure. It's a relatively common scum strategy - flood the town with accusations and hope that a bandwagon starts on one of the townies. Granted, usually, the cases are a little weak, but that's just a matter of time and effort. Exactly what Qatol said. Doing 5 cases in 24 hours is generally preeeeetty anti-town, it's doing no good for town except for getting another no-lynch happening but that's not the issue. The question shouldn't be "would mafia do 5 cases in around 24 hours" because there surely are mafias that do that kind of stuff. The question should be wether you do that as mafia or not. And frankly I thought you would rather do that as town :p | ||
|
Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
On May 08 2012 01:03 Toadesstern wrote: Exactly what Qatol said. Doing 5 cases in 24 hours is generally preeeeetty anti-town, it's doing no good for town except for getting another no-lynch happening but that's not the issue. The question shouldn't be "would mafia do 5 cases in around 24 hours" because there surely are mafias that do that kind of stuff. The question should be wether you do that as mafia or not. And frankly I thought you would rather do that as town :p All you need to read me: Patience( To read my previous games :p). | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On May 08 2012 00:44 Bluelightz wrote: Would scum make 5 cases in around 24 hours? Uh yes. It's one of the ways to actually catch most Scum. | ||
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On May 08 2012 00:44 Bluelightz wrote: Would scum make 5 cases in around 24 hours? just remember that it was a 3 scum game | ||
|
ghost_403
United States1825 Posts
| ||
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On May 08 2012 06:54 ghost_403 wrote: @wbg: So he found all three and two more. I don't see what the problem is. one of the townies on the list ended up being his strongest read don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to downplay what bluelightz did. I'm just pointing out that yes, scum can do what he just described and it isn't exactly accurate to say only town would do that. even as scum you can put your entire team on a list and then push the townies on the list. I've done it myself. | ||
| ||
