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Newbie Mini Mafia III - Page 14

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
January 27 2012 22:28 GMT
#261
I will be checking this thread regularly until the day post, but I will be gone for a while shortly after 10EST. I'll check the thread again at least once between when I get back and when I go to bed.
Guts? Determination? $5?
Burns
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2300 Posts
January 27 2012 22:31 GMT
#262
i was some what suspicious of zarepath, just as we all were, for sugessting random lynching,
-being suspicious of him presents good town motives

then zarepath consistently posted excuses and apologies

simberto also figured out that chocolate hasnt contributed anything

now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic
What do you mean you heard me during the night, these are quiet pants!
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 27 2012 22:34 GMT
#263
On January 28 2012 07:28 DoYouHas wrote:
I will be checking this thread regularly until the day post, but I will be gone for a while shortly after 10EST. I'll check the thread again at least once between when I get back and when I go to bed.

Oh ok. I'll an appointment in about an hour and won't be back until around maybe 1or 2EST?

I wanted someone active who I can trust to keep things on track, so could you do it when I am gone?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 27 2012 22:37 GMT
#264
EBWOP:
I have an appointment.


Also,
List of haven't posted yet (in bold)
Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade.

Cosmos you won't be taken off until you respond to my post.
CosmosXAM
Profile Joined April 2011
United States121 Posts
January 27 2012 22:56 GMT
#265
I just see that deflecting arguments away from themselves by simply pointing out other suspicious people doesn't seem like very town like behavior. Also at that time they had both been voting in unison to my knowledge with DoYouHas being the one to change his vote.

To be honest there is now so much going on in the game that when I try to look at a single person whom I think to be mafia that my information get convoluted, at this time I am just trying to take a step back, slow things down and try to glance at the wider picture and scope of things.
Laugh, and the world laughs with you; Cry, and you cry alone.
Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
January 27 2012 22:59 GMT
#266
On January 28 2012 03:03 zarepath wrote:
The third person I really want to hear from right now is Adam. I think it's unlikely that he inherited a Mafia spot... but that's pure speculation, and we need to hear something. I'm curious what your analysis is of the first day, and who you find most suspicious.


You are correct in that I inherited a townie spot, but you can only take me at my word on that =)

I read the entire thread last night. I will be posting my case closer to the deadline.

SlOosh, in regards to your questions: I will answer them once day 2 stars. I’d rather not paint a target on my back if I am heading in the right direction.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 27 2012 23:01 GMT
#267
On January 28 2012 07:56 CosmosXAM wrote:
I just see that deflecting arguments away from themselves by simply pointing out other suspicious people doesn't seem like very town like behavior. Also at that time they had both been voting in unison to my knowledge with DoYouHas being the one to change his vote.

To be honest there is now so much going on in the game that when I try to look at a single person whom I think to be mafia that my information get convoluted, at this time I am just trying to take a step back, slow things down and try to glance at the wider picture and scope of things.


Thanks for posting. I understand that there is a lot going on and it is good to take a step back and look (I know it helped me a lot after day 1 ended).

So I won't ask you on people reads but on your logic (not because I'm suspicious of you but because I want more than 1 post from each lurker).


I just see that deflecting arguments away from themselves by simply pointing out other suspicious people doesn't seem like very town like behavior.


Could you explain your logic here?
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
January 27 2012 23:06 GMT
#268
On January 28 2012 07:59 Adam4167 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 28 2012 03:03 zarepath wrote:
The third person I really want to hear from right now is Adam. I think it's unlikely that he inherited a Mafia spot... but that's pure speculation, and we need to hear something. I'm curious what your analysis is of the first day, and who you find most suspicious.


You are correct in that I inherited a townie spot, but you can only take me at my word on that =)

I read the entire thread last night. I will be posting my case closer to the deadline.

SlOosh, in regards to your questions: I will answer them once day 2 stars. I’d rather not paint a target on my back if I am heading in the right direction.


In what way would you be painting a target on your back? With how scattered the focus of this thread is, you are not going to draw any more suspicion than anyone else by providing the mediums sized post that sl0osh is asking for. In fact, not answering makes you easier to push into being lynched tomorrow. The risk is extremely low that you will be killed tonight for answering. The risk of drawing too much town attention to yourself and wasting our time is high. Please just answer the question or do one better and give us something to work with.
Guts? Determination? $5?
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 27 2012 23:14 GMT
#269
On January 28 2012 08:06 DoYouHas wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 28 2012 07:59 Adam4167 wrote:
On January 28 2012 03:03 zarepath wrote:
The third person I really want to hear from right now is Adam. I think it's unlikely that he inherited a Mafia spot... but that's pure speculation, and we need to hear something. I'm curious what your analysis is of the first day, and who you find most suspicious.


You are correct in that I inherited a townie spot, but you can only take me at my word on that =)

I read the entire thread last night. I will be posting my case closer to the deadline.

SlOosh, in regards to your questions: I will answer them once day 2 stars. I’d rather not paint a target on my back if I am heading in the right direction.


In what way would you be painting a target on your back? With how scattered the focus of this thread is, you are not going to draw any more suspicion than anyone else by providing the mediums sized post that sl0osh is asking for. In fact, not answering makes you easier to push into being lynched tomorrow. The risk is extremely low that you will be killed tonight for answering. The risk of drawing too much town attention to yourself and wasting our time is high. Please just answer the question or do one better and give us something to work with.

Adding onto that, there is new information influx once day 2 starts.
If we let people wait until day 2 to post, then they can't be held accountable to their positions in the case of conflicting night results. Mafia escape the unnerving challenge of stating things that could be flat out contradicted by night actions.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
January 27 2012 23:37 GMT
#270
List of haven't posted yet (in bold)
Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade

Cosmos, still waiting for your response.
Adam, you paint a target on your back by the town by not responding. Please post and help town.

Appointment is coming up soon, but I'll be back around 1/2EST to post what I've gleaned from this plan and help interpret the night actions.
CosmosXAM
Profile Joined April 2011
United States121 Posts
January 28 2012 00:08 GMT
#271
On January 28 2012 08:37 slOosh wrote:
List of haven't posted yet (in bold)
Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade

Cosmos, still waiting for your response.
Adam, you paint a target on your back by the town by not responding. Please post and help town.

Appointment is coming up soon, but I'll be back around 1/2EST to post what I've gleaned from this plan and help interpret the night actions.


Deflecting is a tactic used by many professions involving talking with a people and hiding information or making sure that the conversation goes your way. What they did is instead of focusing on themselves in a town like fashion (in my opinion) they instantly started attacking other people that had been talked about before, To me that felt very mafia like especially with how they sway the conversation away from themselves or try to by pointing out how futile their deaths will be.
Laugh, and the world laughs with you; Cry, and you cry alone.
Bromancipate
Profile Joined January 2012
Oman52 Posts
January 28 2012 00:11 GMT
#272
Just got back from class.

Few things of note in my opinion. I agree with Adam in his most recent post. I will be posting my thoughts closer to the deadline. My reasoning for doing this: As it stands, we have still a few hours to decide to lynch. If I display my reads to the thread, the mafia has an equal opportunity to read it as well. Like Adam, I will wait closer to the deadline to post my reads. It provides less opportunity for mafia to make a strong hit target based on their current reads.

RE: MG

The reason I chose to play on a Hydra is because I have class, Monday Through Friday, all day. That alone isn't much reason to excuse inactivity. Beyond class, however, I am also in the process of moving out of my apartment that I am in, which was the deciding factor in sharing accounts. Due to the possibility of having unstable internet/actually moving, ect., I chose to play on a hydra. Probu is actually away with his ladyfriend, I believe, until this week, so i've been trying to stay as active as possible.

Second, you come back to the miss-interpretation of a sentence, that I admitted I read wrong. For reference, go back and check Newbie Mafia II. I was doing the same thing with pressing constantly on a few players, not only to get reactions from them in particular, but from others as well. I find it odd you came back to this, again, after I already explained it was a oddly worded sentence. Maybe if you posted with more clarity, it would be easier to decipher what you are ACTUALLY trying to say.

Beyond that, I think you're just upset that I called you out and put you in the spotlight.

Hopefully Probu is coming back tomorrow, because i'm actually in the process of getting my EMT/Paramedic lisence from my local college, so as well as moving, by day will be booked mostly tomorrow. I can drop in a bit and comment here and there while i'm in between breaks. This all ok, slOosh?

I'll be back at about ten of to post my reads.

~J
In Bros we trust
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11402 Posts
January 28 2012 00:45 GMT
#273
Hi, I'm back. For no apparent reason i slept for about 20 hours. Need a bit of time catching up now.
Bromancipate
Profile Joined January 2012
Oman52 Posts
January 28 2012 00:54 GMT
#274
Strongest town read - slOosh

I like the way he is trying to generate discussion. He is activily leading things in the town, however, he is also doing it at a time when the town is most vulernable (when the mafia has the power to use their kill power.) I don’t think this is any indication of scum play, quite the contrary. I feel that his overall desire to get communication rolling is one that can only benefit the town. The more posts that fill the thread, and the more the filter pages pile on, the more we have to dissect information and figure out the cancers in the town atmosphere.

Secondly, he is actively calling out players in the thread for poor play and things that he feels is scum behavior. Getting on peoples cases is another thing indicative of good town atmosphere. I just wish his transparency in to why he wants people to post so much during the night phase was something that I could agree with. I feel that there is plenty of time to post, and the time to ask these questions would be when the day hits, and for him to tunnel people hard to get the information he desires.

The most important thing that I bares interest is his ability to stop what he’s doing, step back for a second, and recalculate what is going on. Sometimes it’s beneficial to pressure, pressure, pressure, stop and wait, and then step back to recalculate relevant information. That alone would have gotten me a green feel, since mafia don’t require the need to stop what they are doing, step back, and think about their actions. They have the ability to continue to pressure because they are the informed minority – they know who is town and who isn’t. They don’t need to stop and think.

Strongest Scum Read – zelblade

I agree with what a lot of players were saying previously about him. He’s constantly apologetic, barely posting anything of substance, and just seems to be an absence member of the thread at this point. One of the first tasks for town players is to prove their innocence. He hasn’t even come to an inch of proving this point.

Top that off with his bandwagon voting of FakePromise (fourth one to vote?) and I think he would be a pretty strong lynch candidate.

However, since there is already considerable negative vibes towards zelblade, my other choice would be…

Second Scum Read - Balt11t

Someone go back and check his filter. It’s not extremely big.
Of that, is there anything in there of substance? I can’t really find much. He’s also constantly apologizing for many things that come up negative towards him, and saying sorry for playing poorly. He seems altogether TOO apologetic, almost as much as Zelblade, and like he doesn’t want to step on any toes. In my opinion, people that are afraid to piss someone off aren’t trying to draw attention to themselves for a reason.

I think his general apologetic nature, as well as his lack of making any real reads and pushing anything of substance. For someone who has been lurking these Mafia games for a long time, he seems to be doing a sight less than what he should be as someone dedicated to taking the fight to the mafia. I think a strong spotlight should be on him to step up his play in the second Day and try to find someone who is playing scum. I actually can’t pull anything out of his filter because there is a significant lack of anything there. -.-
In Bros we trust
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
January 28 2012 01:03 GMT
#275
I do not know if I agree with your scum read on balt11t, Bromancipate. Regardless, both zelblade and balt11t have not posted anything in the last 24 hours. No matter what our reads are, they need to get in here and post their minds ASAP.
Guts? Determination? $5?
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11402 Posts
January 28 2012 01:37 GMT
#276
Ok, i don't want to distract from the information gathering at work here, so i will first post my reads at the moment.

Most probable mafia: zelblade

I have posted my reasoning before, and it has not fundamentally changed. Apologetic, paints himself as a noob, things that can very well be scumslips like "to town" Added now is going into HARD lurker mode as soon as the spotlight is of him. He now posts about 3 lines a day. Also, upon rereading this thread i noticed that we were pretty focused on zelblade, and then suddenly the whole "FakePromise" thing started out of nowhere.

Most probable town: Sloosh

Note that this is not a particularly strong town read, just the best i have. Contributing, and bringing up NEW points, not only reiterating the old ones.

On an other note, you all should take a look at the vote list. It would be very weird if not at least 2, more probably 3 of the people voting on FakePromise are mafia.


I will take a better look into how the whole FakePromise thing got started now, and i would encourage others do so now, too. Preferably before i am done and post my findings so that we can have multiple PoV on this and avoid conformation bias/bandwagoning.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11402 Posts
January 28 2012 01:39 GMT
#277
Also, i don't want to distract the thread from the information gathering going on at the moment, so we still need answers from:

balt11t, Adam4167 and zelblade
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11402 Posts
January 28 2012 02:02 GMT
#278
Ok, this is really interesting. I think you might seriously be able to piece together most of the mafia by analysing this reaction, so i would like others to do the same, too. I will post my findings soon, but i want as many people as possible to get an uninfluenced view. So please take a look at how the whole FakePromise thing evolved.

I try to get as much stuff done in these last hours of night because i fear that i might not be alive tomorrow, so i would also suggest that tomorrow, everyone casts his vote as soon as the day starts. You are still able to change them at any time, so this is no commitment, but it allows us to not have these last-minute haggling for votes debates full of incertainty, which i don't think are a good thing.
Adam4167
Profile Joined June 2011
Australia1426 Posts
January 28 2012 02:57 GMT
#279
This case was written shortly after I joined the game on night 1.


SacredSystem

On January 25 2012 14:55 SacredSystem wrote:
Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.

on a side note
Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-


SacredSystems first post. He implies that zarepath has “the calculated mind of a mobster”, but then says that in spite of this, we should wait for ‘the mafia to expose themselves’.
The first part is a very underhanded way of implying that zarepath is scum, rather than being direct and labelling him as scum, he states zarepath has ‘scum-like’ features. The second line is encouraging passive play, or stalling until a wagon begins on zarepath and he can jump on guilt-free.

On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote:
you
and fakepromise

you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you


SacredSystems second post. Another attack on zarepath and FakePromise.

On January 26 2012 08:27 SacredSystem wrote:
## vote: FakePromise


SacredSystems third post. Looks like that guilt-free wagon arrived, better jump on it, he drops his vote onto FakePromise. CosmosXAM rightly points out how SacredSystem leaps from ‘we need to wait, the mafia will expose themselves’ to ‘zarepath and FakePromise are scum and im voting FakePromise’. This is very inconsistent, as all that occurred inbetween his first post and his third post was a few posts from other people saying ‘FakePromise looks suspicious’.

On January 26 2012 10:34 SacredSystem wrote:

i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumuptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing

also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it



now fakepromise made a decision which doenst make much sense from the townes perspective, now im not assuming anything in sayin that, which is why im voting for fakepromise as mafia







sorry i forgot about the voting thread


SacredSystems fourth post. After being called inconsistent by CosmosXAM, SacredSystem becomes overly defensive for being questioned: ‘also if you arnt saying anything, then don’t say it’.
Now that the FakePromise wagon has started to build some momentum, notice how he stops mentioning zarepath? His post is entirely focused on FakePromise, when zarepath was the one who came up with the random lynch idea.
The last sentence doesn’t even make sense, simplified it looks like this: “fakepromise made a statement which isn’t good for town, I’m not going to assume anything from it, therefore I’m voting for him as mafia.”. This is a statement that contains a conclusion that does not match the two premises.

Posts five, six and seven are SacredSystem responding to some light probing from various people and hammering home that FakePromise agreeing with a 30% success rate is conclusive enough to hang him for.

On January 27 2012 10:40 SacredSystem wrote:
Show nested quote +
I'm holding my vote for Cosmos, and I continue to suggest that people avoid voting for FakePromise, who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.


fakepromise, is a mafia with good mafia intentions

also why do you keep defending him when its impossible to defend him with conclusive reasoning,
Show nested quote +
FakePromise, who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.

prove it

so because you keep defending someone that no townie would defend, im torn between fakepromise who betrayed the town by agreeing to a lynching which goes against the towns odds, or the person defending the traitor


SacredSystems eighth post. He attacks zarepath for defending FakePromise. He even goes as far as calling FakePromise a traitor! This is blowing something out of proportion if I have ever seen it, and misrepresentation is a basic tool of scum. He begins teeing up tomorrows mislynch of zarepath. Hard defending FakePromise like zarepath is does not make him scum.

SacredSystems ninth post is calling out FakePromise for voting for ‘thefearedbeing’ is just useless filler. FakePromise even stated right HERE that he was unsure and placed his vote on the inactive because he wasn’t prepared to take a side.


That is his total filter. Lets bullet-point recap:
-Calls out zarepath and FakePromise with shaky reasoning
-Once the wagon picks up on FakePromise, he forgets about zarepath
-He is overly defensive when questioned
-He uses inconsistent logical arguments
-A couple of filler posts, asking about things that have already been explained.
-Once the FakePromise lynch hits the point of no return, he switches back to attacking zarepath

I don’t see any genuine attempts to scumhunt when I look through his filter. He is entirely focused on FakePromise and zarepath throughout the whole day period. No analysis, none. He seems to be very much flying under the radar as few people have even mentioned him, only posting to further his scummy agenda. Now that FakePromise has flipped Town, take a good hard look at who was trying to drive the wagon, without sticking his head up too high to get noticed.

This is a scum. Town kills scum. Do what needs to be done:

##Vote SacredSystems



P.S If you intend on quoting this case, please spoiler it, keep the thread clean.
dreamflower
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States312 Posts
January 28 2012 03:01 GMT
#280
[image loading]
Start of Day Two


The night was quiet. Too quiet.



It is now Day Two. You have 48 hours to vote on whom to lynch. Deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00) two days from now.
"When the gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers." -Oscar Wilde
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