EPTOn February 10 2012 11:22 slOosh wrote:
It seems that the game was won mostly through help of blue roles in confirming ppl for late game rather than strong analysis.
People in Obs QT said my case against Zarepath was weak / confirmation bias, and I think besides MidnightGladius' vig shot and Adams hunches on Chocolate, as a town we didn't ever rally around a good analysis case.
Could you help point out posts which tipped off people as mafia? Or is this more an overall feel in which each post adds to the case rather than one solid post upon which you can lynch mafia?
Also, how can you differentiate between timidity due to being new to the game and timidity due to being mafia?
It seems that the game was won mostly through help of blue roles in confirming ppl for late game rather than strong analysis.
People in Obs QT said my case against Zarepath was weak / confirmation bias, and I think besides MidnightGladius' vig shot and Adams hunches on Chocolate, as a town we didn't ever rally around a good analysis case.
Could you help point out posts which tipped off people as mafia? Or is this more an overall feel in which each post adds to the case rather than one solid post upon which you can lynch mafia?
Also, how can you differentiate between timidity due to being new to the game and timidity due to being mafia?
I agree that you didn't really rally around a good analysis case all game. I felt the zarepath lynch was lucky, and the rest came down to good blue play. MidnightGladius caught balt11t not contributing (which was a solid read), and chocolate and bromancipate were found mathematically.
I don't know if it's easy to point out which posts tipped off the people in the observer QT. Besides, most of the people in the observer QT were pretty far off base most of the game. In this game, I think the easiest way to figure out who was mafia was to look at the people who weren't really contributing very much. It was pretty obvious that the mafia didn't have much thread presence when zarepath got himself lynched. At that point, you should be looking to the players who don't have much of an ability to push an agenda in the thread. You can do really solid analysis by thinking about the position the mafia must be in based on how the game is going and then looking for players who fit the profile.
Generally, I don't think that you will find a tip off in every post by a player. I personally think post by post analysis is very silly. It usually comes down to a few posts where you realize that the player is not pushing the right kind of agenda. I'm reluctant to point out a specific post in this thread because of confirmation bias however. If you're okay with a little of that possibly leaking in, I'll go find something.
