|
So I was mulling this in my head for a while, the idea of mafia playing like town.
Town's goal is to flush out and lynch the mafia.
Mafia's goal is to prevent them from doing this while using night kills to catch up in number.
Expanding upon that, flushing out happens with activity and meaningful direction, and so mafia want inactivity, confusion or aimlessness.
As mafia, do you just want to look like town? Is it good to be pro-town in certain areas/times for the town cred?
I'm thinking that good analysts can tell if you are trying to look town vs acting town, and so it becomes necessary at points to actually contribute, but as mafia you don't want to give anything that really helps town. It seems to me the only option left is to contribute but make sure it is in the wrong direction.
For example in this game that would be Bromancipate focusing on SacredSystem, which was the wrong direction, but he definitely looked like he was contributing. He also defended zelblade which was pro-town, but only for the purpose of lynching SacredSystem (I think that is what he said during the game? I'm not sure if he was lying or not). Say that his defense worked and quelled all suspicion on zelblade. Would that be an example of being too pro-town leading to downfall of mafia?
|
On February 11 2012 08:09 slOosh wrote:
So I was mulling this in my head for a while, the idea of mafia playing like town.
Town's goal is to flush out and lynch the mafia.
Mafia's goal is to prevent them from doing this while using night kills to catch up in number.
Expanding upon that, flushing out happens with activity and meaningful direction, and so mafia want inactivity, confusion or aimlessness.
As mafia, do you just want to look like town? Is it good to be pro-town in certain areas/times for the town cred?
I'm thinking that good analysts can tell if you are trying to look town vs acting town, and so it becomes necessary at points to actually contribute, but as mafia you don't want to give anything that really helps town. It seems to me the only option left is to contribute but make sure it is in the wrong direction.
For example in this game that would be Bromancipate focusing on SacredSystem, which was the wrong direction, but he definitely looked like he was contributing. He also defended zelblade which was pro-town, but only for the purpose of lynching SacredSystem (I think that is what he said during the game? I'm not sure if he was lying or not). Say that his defense worked and quelled all suspicion on zelblade. Would that be an example of being too pro-town leading to downfall of mafia?
If you are mafia you want to be seen as pro-town contributor with bad reads.
Basicly you want people to see you and say "Damn, that's a bad townie" and not "Damn, that's a mafia".
You need a scum agenda as well. You appear pro-town, contribute and stuff, but every time you do so is with a goal in mind.
For instance at a time you may "pressure" a lurker, but in fact you are just crumbing suspicion on him, which you can later come back to in 2-3 more days to get him lynched, etc.
...or you can bus all your teammates from the start with 100% accurate analysis, and then just cruise throughout the whole game while your buddies silently hate you :p
|
On February 11 2012 08:09 slOosh wrote:
So I was mulling this in my head for a while, the idea of mafia playing like town.
Town's goal is to flush out and lynch the mafia.
Mafia's goal is to prevent them from doing this while using night kills to catch up in number.
Expanding upon that, flushing out happens with activity and meaningful direction, and so mafia want inactivity, confusion or aimlessness.
As mafia, do you just want to look like town? Is it good to be pro-town in certain areas/times for the town cred?
I'm thinking that good analysts can tell if you are trying to look town vs acting town, and so it becomes necessary at points to actually contribute, but as mafia you don't want to give anything that really helps town. It seems to me the only option left is to contribute but make sure it is in the wrong direction.
For example in this game that would be Bromancipate focusing on SacredSystem, which was the wrong direction, but he definitely looked like he was contributing. He also defended zelblade which was pro-town, but only for the purpose of lynching SacredSystem (I think that is what he said during the game? I'm not sure if he was lying or not). Say that his defense worked and quelled all suspicion on zelblade. Would that be an example of being too pro-town leading to downfall of mafia?
My actual plan was that given so many people were convinced of zelblades guilt I would try and push for a SS lynch and let zelblade fall. That way both SS and Sim look guilty, I look innocent and I have recovered from not defending fake day 1. Unfortunately that is not what happened. You have hit the nail on the head though.
My biggest issue was how to interact with my mafia buddies. I knew they were scum and it was easy to see their intentions in their posts. If I was town I might have picked on those as well. Now if I throw my mafia buddies under the bus the only way we win is if I survive to LYLO. Surely it is better to let them live as long as possible without being caught. That is what made my game so difficult for me. I knew that by not pushing my mafia buddies I was looking bad but I also knew that bussing them would be detrimental to my win condition.
Qatol, how do you approach this problem?
|
On February 11 2012 08:09 slOosh wrote:
As mafia, do you just want to look like town? Is it good to be pro-town in certain areas/times for the town cred?
To an extent, as half-decent players can certainly tell when someone is only pretending to contribute. A worse problem as scum is meta: If you've established that you have a good town game, you'd better look pro-town when you're scum. Hence Probulous had a near impossible task here - activity excuses don't work forever.
Without meta, all you need to do is look more pro-town than the last guy you need to mislynch for the win. Quite easy in most games if you don't have some disaster with night actions.
I'm thinking that good analysts can tell if you are trying to look town vs acting town, and so it becomes necessary at points to actually contribute, but as mafia you don't want to give anything that really helps town. It seems to me the only option left is to contribute but make sure it is in the wrong direction.
Note that if all scum players were playing a solid town game and ignoring their hidden knowledge, they'd win, on average. The hidden knowledge hurts them.
As an example, consider a 9 town 3 scum game with no power roles. If a random player dies during the day, and a random town player dies at night, scum have an 89% win rate. As a caveat, I'm not absolutely sure that a 9/3 setup is considered balanced. Someone did run one here recently though.
@Gonzaw: Yeah, scum not communicating in thread is a common weakness, but they don't strictly need to plan it. As long as they're capable of writing posts without them screaming scum, they shouldn't be afraid to communicate with each other in thread, just like they were communicating with anyone else. Of course, a lot of new scum players are (rightly) afraid to communicate with anyone at all.
|
Australia1426 Posts
Yeah, I played in the 9v3 game, scum won in a flawless victory.
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The focus was entirely on players and analysis, not sitting about hoping a blue might rescue them and solve the whole puzzle.
The town still had the standard 3 mislynches available to them and still required 3 correct lynches to win. What it came down to was a lesser experienced town ran into a heavily co-ordinated mafia team.
|
On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote:
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way.
The point is that the psychology only matters because the scum know that they're scum and act like it. If they had no idea, and were happily lynching their own team in the belief that they were themselves town, they'd have that 89% win rate.
|
On February 11 2012 10:26 jaj22 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote:
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The point is that the psychology only matters because the scum know that they're scum and act like it. If they had no idea, and were happily lynching their own team in the belief that they were themselves town, they'd have that 89% win rate.
But I suppose the existence (or even possibility) of cops / investigative roles prevent this kind of stuff?
Hypothetically assume that there is a game setup where each mafia does not know who his teammates are (kinda like Sleeper Cell Mafia). Then remove the possibility of shooting a mafia (doesn't matter how, just assume it defaults to random townie in worst case). Do you think that 89% would still appear (assuming no power roles) ?
It's the hidden information of knowing who your teammates are that makes people look mafia no?
|
On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote:
Yeah, I played in the 9v3 game, scum won in a flawless victory.
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The focus was entirely on players and analysis, not sitting about hoping a blue might rescue them and solve the whole puzzle.
The town still had the standard 3 mislynches available to them and still required 3 correct lynches to win. What it came down to was a lesser experienced town ran into a heavily co-ordinated mafia team.
I really want to see a good, co-ordinated mafia team vs. a competent, constructive town. have yet to see that in my own games; always one or the other heh
|
On February 11 2012 16:20 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote:
Yeah, I played in the 9v3 game, scum won in a flawless victory.
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The focus was entirely on players and analysis, not sitting about hoping a blue might rescue them and solve the whole puzzle.
The town still had the standard 3 mislynches available to them and still required 3 correct lynches to win. What it came down to was a lesser experienced town ran into a heavily co-ordinated mafia team. I really want to see a good, co-ordinated mafia team vs. a competent, constructive town. have yet to see that in my own games; always one or the other heh
Or neither.
|
On February 11 2012 15:41 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2012 10:26 jaj22 wrote:On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote:
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The point is that the psychology only matters because the scum know that they're scum and act like it. If they had no idea, and were happily lynching their own team in the belief that they were themselves town, they'd have that 89% win rate. But I suppose the existence (or even possibility) of cops / investigative roles prevent this kind of stuff?
They change the balance but they don't invalidate the theory. If anything, investigative roles make it even more important for scum to play townie, because DTs are much more effective when they have a narrower target choice. I'm not sure what the standard rules are for balancing DTs in these games.
It's the hidden information of knowing who your teammates are that makes people look mafia no?
That's not the only form of scum agenda. Scum are unlikely to encourage productive discussion and more likely to make filler posts. They tend to avoid the spotlight, and so avoid making strong attacks or strong defences (Zarepath being a notable exception here). This is sometimes a fear/guilt response and sometimes a conscious effort not to help town.
Another common scum mistake is to forget which team they're supposed to be supporting and look angry when the game is going badly for scum, or happy when the game is going badly for town. Players will often realise that they're doing this and overcorrect, which is why congratulating the medic is a common scumtell.
|
On February 12 2012 00:33 jaj22 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2012 15:41 slOosh wrote:On February 11 2012 10:26 jaj22 wrote:On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote:
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The point is that the psychology only matters because the scum know that they're scum and act like it. If they had no idea, and were happily lynching their own team in the belief that they were themselves town, they'd have that 89% win rate. But I suppose the existence (or even possibility) of cops / investigative roles prevent this kind of stuff? They change the balance but they don't invalidate the theory. If anything, investigative roles make it even more important for scum to play townie, because DTs are much more effective when they have a narrower target choice. I'm not sure what the standard rules are for balancing DTs in these games. Show nested quote +
It's the hidden information of knowing who your teammates are that makes people look mafia no?
That's not the only form of scum agenda. Scum are unlikely to encourage productive discussion and more likely to make filler posts. They tend to avoid the spotlight, and so avoid making strong attacks or strong defences (Zarepath being a notable exception here). This is sometimes a fear/guilt response and sometimes a conscious effort not to help town. Another common scum mistake is to forget which team they're supposed to be supporting and look angry when the game is going badly for scum, or happy when the game is going badly for town. Players will often realise that they're doing this and overcorrect, which is why congratulating the medic is a common scumtell.
I never understood why congratulating the medic/vet made you automatically scum..
...I mean poor medic, you are basicly inviting people to boo him 
|
Qatol, are you still planning on posting analysis for this game?
|
On February 15 2012 14:21 DoYouHas wrote:
Qatol, are you still planning on posting analysis for this game?
Yes. Sorry, my weekend just got a bit busy. I haven't forgotten!
|
On February 15 2012 14:21 DoYouHas wrote:
Qatol, are you still planning on posting analysis for this game?
I would like to second this appeal. It would be nice to have your thoughts Qatol.
|
|
|
So, school has died down a bit for me. I signed up for a Fine Arts class called "Play Production" at the behest of my adviser. Little did I know that I would be voted "Stage Manager," and having absolutely no prior play experience, I was almost immediately drowned in how much work I had to keep up with. On top of that, the class is an experiment to see if they want to institute a Play Production class in every semester at my school from here on out. Oh job. -.-
Rest assured, I won't be signing up for anything with Play in it again.
Sorry to my team for not being active enough to participate. I dug a pretty shitty hole for Probu coming back in, but I think we did a decent job after I was able to get some solid communication with him when we starting hitting the same page, both through our QT and PM's.
Sloosh played really, really well as medic, as well as DoYouHas. Those two contributions obviously gave the town a huge advantage, especially hero medic saves. I really wanted DoYouHas (especially DoYouHas) and Sloosh dead, because at the end of the first day, I felt it best to try to keep the town in confusion. The addition of Adam really hit something home. He would have undoubtedly found something out if sloosh/DYH hadn't. I had a feeling that, after the first day, Sloosh and DYH would flip at least one blue between them. Didn't know both would turn up.
A note to MidnightGladius. Just so you know, if I ever see you post like that, I will probably strongly advocate for you're lynch. I hinted at it early game, but I had trouble keeping pressure up due to time constraints. I feel that you're posts, especially the initial one, we're contributing more towards town confusion then contribution. I think that you're read on Balt was accurate, obviously since he was red, but I wasn't sure if it was all original or pushed because of my less-then-ideal bus on him earlier. Beyond that, nice shot.
|
On February 16 2012 05:09 Jitsu wrote:Sorry to my team for not being active enough to participate. I dug a pretty shitty hole for Probu coming back in, but I think we did a decent job after I was able to get some solid communication with him when we starting hitting the same page, both through our QT and PM's.
*Brofist* FreedomForAll!
I wasn't exactly helpful either, what with the wine drinking and such. No need to apologise, we knew we would be busy.
|
On February 10 2012 08:14 MidnightGladius wrote:
On Night 2, as I was considering who to shoot, I was suspicious of Bromancipate, but I was more suspicious of balt11t. I hadn't fully considered the interaction between the vigilante ability and mafia roleblocking, but here was my initial plan:
1) Call a shot on balt11t at the beginning of the Night and look at the town's response.
a) If it became obvious from balt11t's response that he was indeed mafia, and that the town was in favor of lynching him regardless, I would switch targets and shoot Bromancipate instead, claiming this in the thread shortly before the Day post.
b) If I was wrong about balt11t, and he claimed a blue role and provided useful information, I would switch my shot to Bromancipate, knowing that I was probably going to be killed by the mafia during the night. The town could sort out the claim afterward.
c) If no particularly useful information came out of the exchange, I would play it safe and not switch targets.
In the end, it was pretty clear that balt11t wouldn't be alive for much longer no matter what happened, but I thought about it a little bit more. On the one hand, if I had been right with both of my reads, it would have essentially wrapped up the game. On the other hand, had I been wrong about either balt11t or Bromancipate, or heaven forbid both, the town would have been thrown into chaos and the endgame would have been much more messy.
As the town was in a pretty strong position following the first medic save and zarepath's lynch, I ultimately decided to play it safe. Of course, it turned out that my reads were right, but I don't want to be a victim of hindsight bias.
What would you have done as a vigilante in that position? Would it have been right to trust my reads and go for the big play, or is it better to just play safely? Alternatively, would I have been better off not calling my shot on balt11t in the first place and either holding onto my shot, or still shooting him and claiming it on the next Day?
The first consideration you have to make when deciding to call a shot in the thread is whether or not the game has a way to stop your hit. If there is the potential for mafia medics, bus drivers, or roleblockers (or another role that can block/stop/screw with your hit), you should NOT call your shot. Any potential information you could get out of the attempt is not worth the risk of your shot getting blocked/cancelled. Instead, I recommend breadcruming the hit (spell balt with the first letter of the first word of 4 posts or something - be a little creative with this, but not so out there that people think you are just making it up after the fact) and then claim the hit afterwards.
Remember, half of the strength of the vigilante role is that it confirms you as innocent because you add another KP to the night which couldn't have come from the mafia. However, with that in mind, you can rely more upon information in a setup where the mafia cannot stop the shot if you think you have a decent chance of surviving the night (thanks to roles such as town medics).
I thought you used your hit at the correct timing in the game, and it looked like you were thinking about the right sorts of things when pinning down your mafia members. You need to trust your instincts assuming you have a solid read on someone. Don't trust the logic of someone else in the thread unless you are SURE they are town and you think they have a better idea of how to scumhunt than you do. Shooting when you did also stopped the town from mislynching you (and you were under at least a little pressure in that regard). You don't want to die with your shot still in your pocket. That being said, don't shoot on night 2 as a vigi just because you don't want to die without having used it. Using the shot on a townie is really bad for the town in a game this small. While you wind up confirmed (so it's not completely a waste), you can't afford to reduce the town count or waste town KP.
|
Yo, Qatol, can you answer my question from earlier linky
|
On February 17 2012 08:31 Probulous wrote:Yo, Qatol, can you answer my question from earlier linky
Yeah I'll get to it. Your question is on page 36. I'm still on page 33.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
