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*Qatol is helping me co-host this game. Any questions can be directed towards him or myself.
The coaches for this game are: Ver and Incognito. Please consult them if you want general advice on playing the game or need to check your argument (but please make sure they are not playing the game for you).
Newbie Mini Mafia II
+ Show Spoiler [Results] +
+ Show Spoiler [Important Posts] +
Introduction: Welcome to the TL Mafia forum! Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, do not play. I will not compensate for ignorance.
Rules: Cheating: Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting or sharing any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players unless cleared by the host in advance. Otherwise, only you may post on your account. 11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM. Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting: Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs:
On April 26 2011 13:22 mikeymoo wrote: Smurfs must PM the host because TL doesn't allow multiple accounts otherwise. If the host is unaware of smurfs, you (and/or your smurf) can be banned for having multiple accounts.
Spam: Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here.
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Flamewheel, or Mig before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Flamewheel, or Mig before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Out of thread communication: It is common for mafia (and town circles if PMs are allowed) to use a medium outside of TL such as QuickTopics or IRC to communicate during the game. Please be mindful that other players may be more tech savvy than you and they may attempt impersonate members of your team or attempt to infiltrate your chat. You use these media at your own risk.
Voting rules: 1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes here, and only vote here. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. This game follows Extended Majority Lynch Rules. Majority = number of total voters/2 (rounded down) + 1. Unlike in traditional majority lynch, the lynch is NOT decided the moment that majority is reached. Instead, only the final vote count matters. If there is no majority at the deadline, the day ends with a no-lynch. Non-voters will be modkilled for failure to vote. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
Signups: This game is open to NEW PLAYERS . This means 3 or fewer games played of TL mafia. Signups will remain open until the 12 spots have been filled.
Game-specific rules: Modkills: This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM Flamewheel or post in the Ban List.
Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until day 2 ish. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list.
Clues: There are no clues.
PMs PMs are not allowed in this game.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a 24 hour night/48 hour day cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00), but that is subject to change.
Credits: Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer. Thanks to everyone who helped balance this game.
If you have not read all the rules, go back and do so. I will not compensate for ignorance!
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Possible Roles (not all will be used) :
Townie You are just a normal player with no night actions. All you can do is vote during the day. But the town needs you to win so be active!
Detective You can make night investigations. Once per night you may ask for the role of any player. Alignments are either Town or Mafia. You are always sane. Role checks come back with the next day post.
Medic You have the power to save lives. Once per night you can watch a player. If your target is attacked, you will block one hit aimed at them. If you make a successful save, both you and your target will be notified of the save. You cannot save yourself.
Veteran You've been around the block a few times and know how to escape an attack on your life. But for how long? The veteran gets one additional night life, meaning he must be hit by two attackers to kill him (much like having two medics watching over you, except you lose one life if you incur one attack). If a medic is protecting you, you will not lose a life for the hit the medic protects. If you incur a hit, I will notify you via PM the following day.
Vigilante You may, only once during the game, kill a player of your choice during the night. If your hit overlaps with mafia or another vigilante, then I will cancel it and they will kill the person instead. In the case of overlapping vigilantes, the hit that was sent first is the one that goes through. In both cases you will not know who caused your hit to be canceled and you will be able to use your hit anytime after that during the game. You may not use this ability on Night 1.
Miller This player is a townie in every way, except that if a detective role checks this player, the detective will be told the Miller is a Mafia. The Miller is told that they are a Townie in their pre-game PM. The Miller will be revealed as a Miller upon his/her death. The Miller is on the side of the Townies and wins if they win.
Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining.
Roleblocker You are a mafia member who has the ability to prevent a player from performing a night action. Once per night, you may roleblock a player, and your target will be unable to perform night actions for that night. Your target will be informed that they have been roleblocked (even if they didn't have a night action). You do not have to use your action every night.
Godfather The Godfather has the ability to decide what role he will appear to be when a Detective role checks him. It can be any role and must be chosen on Day 1. Otherwise, he will default to the townie role. After your role is chosen, the Godfather may not change it; decisions are final for the whole game. The Mafia as a group must choose which Mafia member becomes the Godfather before Day 1 ends. If they do not, the Godfather will be randomly selected.
Mafia win condition : You win when the # of mafia alive is equal to or greater than the # of other players alive.
Town win condition : You win when all of the mafia have been eliminated.
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Please note two important and useful things to keep in mind:
1) Do not edit your posts! If you feel you must correct your post, please make a second post to clarify your statements. You may put EBWOP ("Edit by way of post," a handy acronym invented by semioldguy) at the beginning of your post to indicate that you are clearing up a point you made. If your EBWOP post is several posts after your original, please quote your original post in your EBWOP post for the sake of clarity.
2) Thanks to Nazgul, the Mafia forum has a handy tool called the filter. When you click on someone's filter (a tiny little link located in the top right corner of every post), you will see a list of their posts and only their posts. This is great for isolating posts made only by that player. Please feel free to make use of this excellent tool when playing Mafia!
Useful Guides for Your Perusal
Past Newbie Mafia Games
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Hooray! Dreamflower, I was wondering whether I could sign in for this as a hydra with Jitsu? We are both pretty busy but would love to take part. Are you happy to let us play as a hydra?
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I was waiting for GM or wherebugs go to post between your "reserved" posts. I was let down
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On January 24 2012 08:37 Probulous wrote: Hooray! Dreamflower, I was wondering whether I could sign in for this as a hydra with Jitsu? We are both pretty busy but would love to take part. Are you happy to let us play as a hydra? No problem.
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/in
We are one but we are many
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Put me down as a replacement, please.
I hated seeing the last newbie game get shit up because people went inactive, got replaced, then the replacements went inactive -_-
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I played in the shitstorm that was XLVII, played fully in XLVIII and got modkilled day 1 (rules misunderstanding, my fault) in Mafia L and I am registered for Hammer's Mini. I would equate this to about 2 games of mafia history and I have more than enough time to be active during 2 mini games. I will /in if I am allowed.
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/in Finally I get to play game after not being able to for the past 2 mini mafias TT
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
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On January 24 2012 10:06 Mattchew wrote: I played in the shitstorm that was XLVII, played fully in XLVIII and got modkilled day 1 (rules misunderstanding, my fault) in Mafia L and I am registered for Hammer's Mini. I would equate this to about 2 games of mafia history and I have more than enough time to be active during 2 mini games. I will /in if I am allowed.
Sorry, but I just don't feel comfortable allowing a player who is playing in another game at the same time. I appreciate your interest, but I do think it would be better if you devoted your time to playing one game at a time.
Edit: I have also noticed that you haven't sat out your one-game ban yet. As this game follows the Ban List, I'm afraid you cannot sign up for this game.
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I'll be watching this game. From the shadows.
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On January 24 2012 11:29 Nameless Hero wrote: I'll be watching this game. From the shadows. This is a no banling smurf zone, thanks.
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^^ Shouldn't you be out there banning noobs
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/in
I've been stalking these Mafia threads for a while, might as well start in a noobie thread. I really look forward to participating. Started an account just to play in this game, haha.
EDIT: Grammar error.
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On January 24 2012 11:33 balt11t wrote: /in
I've been stalking these Mafia threads for a while, might as well start in a noobie thread. I really look forward to participating. Started an account just to play in this game, haha.
EDIT: Grammar error. Obviously it doesn't matter before the game starts, but please be mindful about editing in the future. It is not allowed in mafia games, even if it is just to fix grammar or spelling.
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On January 24 2012 11:33 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2012 11:29 Nameless Hero wrote: I'll be watching this game. From the shadows. This is a no banling smurf zone, thanks. I am disappointed to hear that, fortunately Nameless Hero isn't a banling smurf. As far as we know, anyway.
AMEN
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On January 24 2012 11:38 BayonnetAnderson wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2012 11:33 Qatol wrote:On January 24 2012 11:29 Nameless Hero wrote: I'll be watching this game. From the shadows. This is a no banling smurf zone, thanks. I am disappointed to hear that, fortunately Nameless Hero isn't a banling smurf. As far as we know, anyway. AMEN
Everyone act calm, he might post a lot of flavor and then use one of his day vig shots on us if we are not careful
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Whoops, I'm sorry! I'll definitely remember that for the game.
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On January 24 2012 11:38 BayonnetAnderson wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2012 11:33 Qatol wrote:On January 24 2012 11:29 Nameless Hero wrote: I'll be watching this game. From the shadows. This is a no banling smurf zone, thanks. I am disappointed to hear that, fortunately Nameless Hero isn't a banling smurf. As far as we know, anyway. AMEN This is still a no banling smurf zone, thanks.
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#Knife Repeatedly Till Dead BayonnetAnderson
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On January 24 2012 08:37 dreamflower wrote:Player List* Please note: Qatol has invited some players to take part. If those players sign up, they will get priority. Otherwise, sign-ups are first come, first serve. We hosts reserve the right to veto players if we believe they are too experienced or otherwise do not qualify as newbies. 1. Bromancipate (Probulous/Jitsu hydra) - Filter2. SacredSystem3. Chocolate - Filter4. DoYouHas - Filter5. FakePromise - Filter6. balt11t - Filter7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Replacements1. Adam4167
hey dreamflower, just confirming my involvement
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/in please!
I would really like to try this. I had already played a single game in past the past on mafiascum, but the rhythm was way too slow for me (3 weeks per day is long..).
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I'll be a replacement. I'd like to let the slightly more new players than me have the chance to play here. Still, if people go inactive, I'd like the game to go as smoothly as possible.
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On January 24 2012 12:41 Spaackle wrote: I'll be a replacement. I'd like to let the slightly more new players than me have the chance to play here. Still, if people go inactive, I'd like the game to go as smoothly as possible.
Very admirable sentiment.
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/in
Excited to see how this works.
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It says in the rules under Godfather that "The Godfather has the ability to decide what role he will appear to be when a Detective role checks him"
Since the cops can only find alignment this setup, does this mean he can only decide to appear as townie / mafia ?
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Oops, the detectives description was supposed to say "role," not "alignment." The Godfather can appear as any role. Thanks for bringing that to my attention.
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Am I correct in saying that no-one knows whether there is a miller, even the miller themselves, until the miller flips?
Holy hell that could cause some problems
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/in
I haven't played in a game of TL Mafia for years now, and after following some of the past few games, I'd like to participate again.
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On January 24 2012 13:37 Probulous wrote:Am I correct in saying that no-one knows whether there is a miller, even the miller themselves, until the miller flips?Holy hell that could cause some problems
Piggybacking off this question: Is this half open setup (roles are known but which ones and how many aren't)?
Also, a question to the TL Mafia people in general: the in standard way for mafia to communicate night actions through pms? I'm not sure since I've only read games and some QuickTopics, but never any mafia pm threads if such things exist.
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On January 24 2012 13:48 MidnightGladius wrote: /in
I haven't played in a game of TL Mafia for years now, and after following some of the past few games, I'd like to participate again. I remember you! Every weapon ever used in clues was a sword and it connected to you! And yeah I think we will let you in considering you haven't played since Wrath of KHAAAAANNNNN and are basically a newbie with the amount of evolving the metagame around here has undergone since then.
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"Possible Roles (not all will be used) :"
So yeah, I assume we don't get the number of roles.
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On January 24 2012 13:37 Probulous wrote:Am I correct in saying that no-one knows whether there is a miller, even the miller themselves, until the miller flips?Holy hell that could cause some problems
Yes. And yes.
On January 24 2012 13:57 slOosh wrote:
Piggybacking off this question: Is this half open setup (roles are known but which ones and how many aren't)?
Also, a question to the TL Mafia people in general: the in standard way for mafia to communicate night actions through pms? I'm not sure since I've only read games and some QuickTopics, but never any mafia pm threads if such things exist.
Yes, this will be a half-open setup. Roles that are not in the role list will not be in the game. Roles that are listed in the role list may or may not be in the game. All role PMs will be copies of the descriptions from the role list.
Most Mafia teams do communicate through PMs, though quicktopics, IRC, instant messenger, or other methods have been used as well. It is pretty much up to the Mafia members to decide which method(s) they prefer.
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Will we know how many scum are in the game, or is that closed info too?
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You will because you will have your team mates listed in your role PM.
BAM!
That's right
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On January 24 2012 14:29 Spaackle wrote: Will we know how many scum are in the game, or is that closed info too? Yes. 9 town vs. 3 scum.
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@Qatol Thanks
@Probulous Oh no! You caught me already! XD Too bad the game hasn't started yet, or I'd fear for the other scum.
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Just to say, I am allowing more experienced players to sign up as replacements, though newer players will have priority when replacing into the game.
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Is this a night start or day start?
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/in
First time playing mafia, hope this will be fun and i am not too stupid.
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If PMs are not allowed in this game, how would Mafia communicate with each other? Or does that only refer to Day PM's?
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Wow, this game filled up much quicker than I expected! Qatol and I were considering making this a 15-player game rather than 12 to allow for greater flexibility in set-ups and to allow more newbies to play. What do you guys think about this? Would you prefer the game to start sooner, or would you be okay with waiting a day or two to see if we get any more sign-ups?
On January 24 2012 16:49 Incognito wrote: Is this a night start or day start?
This is open to change, but right now I'm thinking day start. Mostly because I didn't want someone to go through the trouble of signing up, only to be killed off before they get to post anything or participate in the game.
On January 25 2012 01:35 zarepath wrote: If PMs are not allowed in this game, how would Mafia communicate with each other? Or does that only refer to Day PM's?
The Mafia are allowed to PM each other and only each other. No one else is allowed to PM anyone. That's all that "no-PMs" means. In other games on TL Mafia where PMs are allowed, that means that everyone can PM everyone at any time. For a newbie game, it's generally better to have no-PMs, except for Mafia coordination, so that most of the game goes on in the open rather than in PMs between players.
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On January 24 2012 13:54 zelblade wrote: /in.
Eh dreamflower i think u missed out my signup.
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dreamflower, I think it's better to keep it at 12. 15 is 3 more filters to read and generally more time required to put into the game. As many people already underestimate the time required to put in I feel it's smarter to make them replacements or get another newbie game running.
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The sooner this one starts the sooner there can be another newbie game. If you open it up more you'll end up with a 30 person game trying to accommodate everyone.
Mostly, I just want to start sooner because I'm excited.
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I too would prefer maintaining the 12-player setup.
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When you say the Godfather has to be chosen by the end of Day 1, I assume that includes Night 1?
Also: except for mafia goons and townies, can we assume that there can't be any more than 1 of all the other blue and red roles? For example, we don't know if there's a Miller or not, but we can assume there aren't 2 or more of them... same with DT, role-blocker, etc.? Or do we not even know that, just the 9/3 town/scum ratio?
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I would like to join this mafia if you allow more players. It would be my first game and I'm excited to play But I don't mind if you can go on with the current setup. It seems that most players want to start playing now, so it's up to them. I'll spectate then There's always a next time I guess
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On January 25 2012 02:30 zarepath wrote: When you say the Godfather has to be chosen by the end of Day 1, I assume that includes Night 1?
Also: except for mafia goons and townies, can we assume that there can't be any more than 1 of all the other blue and red roles? For example, we don't know if there's a Miller or not, but we can assume there aren't 2 or more of them... same with DT, role-blocker, etc.? Or do we not even know that, just the 9/3 town/scum ratio? No, Godfather (if there is one in the setup - Mafia will obviously be informed of this when the game starts) must be chosen before the end of the day 1 lynch. It's less confusing for the hosts if we know who the Godfather is before we start getting check requests from detectives.
You cannot assume that there can't be more than 1 of any role. All you know is the 9/3 ratio.
On January 25 2012 03:08 trackd00r wrote:I would like to join this mafia if you allow more players. It would be my first game and I'm excited to play But I don't mind if you can go on with the current setup. It seems that most players want to start playing now, so it's up to them. I'll spectate then There's always a next time I guess Would you like to be added to the replacement list?
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hmm you guys missed zelblade's /in, he was before simberto.
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On January 25 2012 03:57 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 02:30 zarepath wrote: When you say the Godfather has to be chosen by the end of Day 1, I assume that includes Night 1?
Also: except for mafia goons and townies, can we assume that there can't be any more than 1 of all the other blue and red roles? For example, we don't know if there's a Miller or not, but we can assume there aren't 2 or more of them... same with DT, role-blocker, etc.? Or do we not even know that, just the 9/3 town/scum ratio? No, Godfather (if there is one in the setup - Mafia will obviously be informed of this when the game starts) must be chosen before the end of the day 1 lynch. It's less confusing for the hosts if we know who the Godfather is before we start getting check requests from detectives.
You cannot assume that there can't be more than 1 of any role. All you know is the 9/3 ratio.Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 03:08 trackd00r wrote:I would like to join this mafia if you allow more players. It would be my first game and I'm excited to play But I don't mind if you can go on with the current setup. It seems that most players want to start playing now, so it's up to them. I'll spectate then There's always a next time I guess Would you like to be added to the replacement list?
Yes please
/in as a replacement
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When will the game start?
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Sorry for missing you, zelblade! The game will now have 13 players, with 9 town-aligned players and 4 Mafia.
The game will start tonight at 03:00 GMT (+00:00). Role PMs will be sent out then.
Thank you all for your patience and enthusiasm!
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On January 25 2012 05:20 dreamflower wrote: Sorry for missing you, zelblade! The game will now have 13 players, with 9 town-aligned players and 4 Mafia.
The game will start tonight at 03:00 GMT (+00:00). Role PMs will be sent out then.
Thank you all for your patience and enthusiasm!
No problem lol.
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Uhhh, so i weaseled in by distracting the gamemaster. Nice. Though i probably made the situation, or at least the ratio, worse for us. Well, the rest of you will have to accept that sacrifice, which is obviously more then made up for by having my great insight on board anyways.
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They'll probably add a blue or two to compensate.
Also: Ver coaching everyone? What a boss.
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Fellow townies, the scum has started breeding! They have increased their number by 30% in the 24 hours alone. We must stop this pestilence and cleanse our once pure city of their filth. Our safe sex program has done little to stem the flow of mafia babies, we must seek drastic methods.
They will swing from the gallows. They will swing from the lamposts. They will swing from the slightly elevated mayor's office; and we will never surrender!
For one, for all.
BROMANCIPATION!
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Really excited for this, can't wait till 9 :D
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They should, and we'll have to be really careful with lynches and vigi kills. I wish we could have more players TT, this ratio seems weird.
Also apologizing in advance for being inactive right off the start, I will probably only be able to read the thread at 7:30 EST and won't post until like 2-3:00 EST. So don't read that as scum
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That first part was directed at Jaj's post btw.
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On January 25 2012 07:16 Bromancipate wrote: Fellow townies, the scum has started breeding! They have increased their number by 30% in the 24 hours alone. We must stop this pestilence and cleanse our once pure city of their filth. Our safe sex program has done little to stem the flow of mafia babies, we must seek drastic methods.
They will swing from the gallows. They will swing from the lamposts. They will swing from the slightly elevated mayor's office; and we will never surrender!
For one, for all.
BROMANCIPATION!
Oh my god, they are multiplying exponentially! If they continue at this rate, this whole thread will be red within less then a week! And a week after that, the whole subforum. And within a month, this whole site will be red as blood.
We need to quickly test whether or not shampoo helps. If it doesn't, we need to nuke everything.
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No sweat my little brothers. We may be new, but we are not stupid. Your posting number is somewhat irrelevant. It is what you say that counts. If you contribute sufficiently, that will be enough.
Just letting everyone know that both Jitsu and I (Probulous) have played here before. You can check out our profiles for the details if you want. We are sharing this account because of our oh so busy lives. Have no fear, we will be active and will be participating.
Finally, I tend to spam, so in an effort to not swamp the thread with crap, I will be actively controlling the number of posts that come from me. I am getting it out of my system now.
/Probulous
"The nectar of freedom tastes like awesomeness"-someone wise
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## Nuke Simberto
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On January 25 2012 06:57 jaj22 wrote: They'll probably add a blue or two to compensate.
Also: Ver coaching everyone? What a boss.
We're working on getting a second coach. Stay tuned for further developments.
On January 25 2012 07:26 Bromancipate wrote: Finally, I tend to spam, so in an effort to not swamp the thread with crap, I will be actively controlling the number of posts that come from me. I am getting it out of my system now.
/Probulous
Please be mindful of this. dreamflower and I tend to be harsher than most hosts on players insulting each other, cursing, and spamming.
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On January 25 2012 07:26 Bromancipate wrote: Finally, I tend to spam, so in an effort to not swamp the thread with crap, I will be actively controlling the number of posts that come from me. I am getting it out of my system now.
Everyone's going to think you're scum because of your drastic style change.
On January 25 2012 08:28 Qatol wrote: Please be mindful of this. dreamflower and I tend to be harsher than most hosts on players insulting each other, cursing, and spamming. [checks player list for Gonzaw]
I'll be PMing for the ObsQT tomorrow, assuming that there is one.
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On January 25 2012 09:04 jaj22 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 07:26 Bromancipate wrote: Finally, I tend to spam, so in an effort to not swamp the thread with crap, I will be actively controlling the number of posts that come from me. I am getting it out of my system now.
Everyone's going to think you're scum because of your drastic style change. Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 08:28 Qatol wrote: Please be mindful of this. dreamflower and I tend to be harsher than most hosts on players insulting each other, cursing, and spamming. [checks player list for Gonzaw] I'll be PMing for the ObsQT tomorrow, assuming that there is one.
Oh that's mean! <3 Gonz!
People can be stupid if they want. I could care less if they think I'm scum because I'm not spamming. Stupidity begs to be ignored. Besides once Jitsu arrives that reasoning makes no sense. He doesn't spam at all so the bromance is not changing style, merely choosing.
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All roles should be sent out. PM me if you didn't get one.
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Start of Day 1
Under a dark night sky lit only by a thin sliver of moon, four men crept as quickly and quietly as they could through an empty grass field, only pausing now and then to steal nervous glances behind them. All four of them were hardened murderers and former members of the Mafia who had been found out, tried, and sentenced to life in prison. After ten years, the four Mafioso banded together and decided they'd had enough. It took six months of planning, but they finally managed to escape from prison by sneaking up on and killing four guards, stealing their clothing, and walking out the prison's front door before anyone noticed they were missing. By now, though, they could hear the alarms going off in the distance and the prison dogs barking and see the spotlights flashing as the wardens and guards searched for the escapees.
Hurrying stealthily through the field, the four men found themselves approaching a dusty road that led to what appeared to be a small town. Squinting in the dim moonlight, they could read the words "Welcome to Liquidville" on the sign next to the road. With the alarms and barking dogs ringing in their ears, the four criminals barely had to consult each other. They ran down the road and into the sleeping town.
In a parking lot next to the main road, Qatol whistled to himself as he staggered toward his car. It had been a long night at the karaoke bar, and he couldn't get the "Macarena" song out of his head. Preoccupied with patting his pockets looking for his keys, he failed to see the four men creeping out of the shadows to whack him over the head with a crowbar.
Inside his car, the Mafioso criminals found Qatol's keys, identification papers, and dry cleaning. For a moment, they looked at each other, then at the quiet little town. They came to a decision: they would hide here in this tiny little boring town, disguise themselves as ordinary townspeople, and never go back to prison again. Quickly dressing themselves in Qatol's clothing, they drove to his house and prepared to hide out there until the uproar over their prison escape was all over.
In the morning, the police would track the four Mafiosos' progress to Liquidville and inform the town that they were harboring dangerous killers and criminals in their midst. It would be up to the innocent townspeople, however, to find out who was Mafia and who was a true citizen of Liquidville. The hunt was on, and the townspeople had better tread carefully, for the four former Mafia members were perfectly willing to kill anyone who came too close to discovering who they really were.
Newbie Mini Game III has officially started. You have approximately 48 hours to vote. Voting will end on Thursday, January 26 at 03:00 GMT (+00:00). Please put all votes in the voting thread here.
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So, the first question I think has to be this:
What do we want to accomplish on Day 1?
We either no-lynch or randomly lynch, as far as I can tell. We don't have much game history to draw upon as far as deciding who to cut early.
I see several possible outcomes:
Randomly lynch a mafia/red: This is clearly the best possible outcome. If we have worthwhile hunches to go on, it's possible we can lynch a mafia on the first Day. From what I've read it's unlikely, but still possible; it all depends on what kind of discussion we see today.
Randomly lynch a townie/blue: Bad. The only upside is that we can then use the information from that lynching to determine likely mafia. Who was most excited about randomly lynching that particular person? Who bandwagonned on? Who were the last few votes who made the lynch possible?
No-lynch: We don't get a mafia, or confirmation of who isn't mafia. Because there's no risk of lynching a townie/blue, this seems to be very safe.
But what I wonder is this: if we don't lynch anyone today, our information for Day 2 is limited, and we give the mafia a night to kill someone. We end up with 1 dead townie before we're willing to make deductions. Maybe it's riskier to not lynch someone on the first night, because we'd have less information to go on.
So what I'm suggesting is this: we lynch someone randomly. Say, by reverse-alphabetical order. There's no reason at all for us to suspect this person. But by deciding to lynch them, we'll either see a lot of defense (ie, they're mafia), or a lot of people agreeing with killing that person (ie, those people are mafia.) Once that person flips blue or red, we'll know who was who.
TLDR; I suggest that we randomly lynch zelblade, or seriously discuss it, and see what happens from there.
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Haha it seems like all mafia games start with Qatol's death
From the two newbie minis I've read, it seems like inactivity was quite detrimental.
Let's make sure that people don't get away with lurking!
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Zarepath I think you don't give town enough credit.
It's slightly understandable given that it is Newbie Mafia, but to say our only options are randomly lynching or no-lynching seems a bit too much in my opinion. I base this on the other newbie minis where a plan (such as pressuring inactives) lead to discussion and therefore more information upon which the town made better-than-random lynch cases
I don't like this defaulting to random lynch. It allows for WIFOM and general chaos in general as it is not built on something solid such as post analysis but , as its name suggests, something completely random. I don't think this is a pro - town idea.
Promoting a good town atmosphere will lead to educated guesses, so I say we wait until people had a chance to read and post, then we pressure inactives and go from there.
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Poor Qatol, had such potential
4/13 = 30.7% chance of killing mafia so random lynch seems good for me
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Ehh... well its 9/13 = 69% chance of hitting town so random lynch seems like a bad idea to me
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FakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk.
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And we're off! I'm looking forward to an exciting and educating game. I'd like to begin Day 1 with earnest and open discussion, with high activity and clear lines of reasoning. My style of scumhunting is to use Bayesian inference on evidence derived from the character and reasoning of peoples' posts. The base rate of being mafia is 4/13.
Considering that I can confirm myself as innocent, the chance of anyone else being mafia, a priori, is 1/3. The probability distribution will change as people post and reveal their motivations, until I'm willing to lynch someone on even odds or better.
Regardless, in the interests of objectivity, it is important to keep in mind the base rate, the false positive rate, and the true positive rate. Any statement can be made by either an innocent or a mafia, and the prior rate is fairly low. Thus, it is important to isolate statements that exclusively mafia would make, or at least to find examples of reasoning that lean towards indicating mafia motivations. This way, we can try to prevent suffering from confirmation bias and scumhunt more effectively.
On the topic of zarepath's proposal, I find it alarming. Lynching randomly has a 1/3 chance of success, which is far too low for me to support. Your reasoning, especially, suffers from confirmation bias. In response to this plan, anyone can either a) support the lynch, b) argue against the lynch, and c) say nothing. Since saying nothing leads to modkills, we can eliminate the case.
Supporting the lynch, in your argument, is evidence of being mafia. However, you claim that arguing against the lynch is also evidence of being mafia. That is inconsistent, unless you would like to claim which case is more indicative of being mafia.
To continue, the "random" process used to select zelblade is also odd. Why not use either an entirely random process (RNG), or one that is motivated by initial evidence (on the basis of inactivity or level of contribution)?
In conclusion, I have to defer my support for zarepath's proposal, and I am also inclined to raise suspicions towards him. His plan has a low probability of success, and his procedure for deriving information from ensuing discussion is flawed with confirmation bias.
Could we instead opt to lynch on the basis of inactivity and low levels of contribution? The odds are no worse than a random selection, so long as everyone is participating properly, and this encourages the generation of more useful information than zarepath's choice of testimony would.
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In extension, I feel as though the proposed plan by zarepath is simply too great of a risk. Why take nearly a 70% chance of taking an innocent person's life? No, we should wait to find the lurkers, I agree with slOosh, we need to wait for a little more discussion to happen in order to make a decision.
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United States2186 Posts
Just letting you guys know that I might not be able to reply timely to everything. I'll do what I can. Nothing personal just at times very busy.
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I disagree with zarepath's plan to "randomly" lynch me. Of course i am being a litte biased here, but how does randomly lynching me provide any sort of information? How does me/others defending myself = mafia? Any player, regardless of aglinment, is going to defend themselves either way, as getting lynched in either case is bad for their team, and chances to win.
Thus, i believe that lynching me or anyone else "randomly" is a horrible idea.
As for what to do with our day 1 lynch, i suggest that we lynch a lurker unless a better canditate comes up. Remember that we still have alot of time left before the deadline, so we should utilize this time well to discuss and find a better lynch candidate than lynching by reverse-alphabetical order.
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On January 25 2012 14:11 Ver wrote: Just letting you guys know that I might not be able to reply timely to everything. I'll do what I can. Nothing personal just at times very busy. If Ver is busy, please PM Incognito, who has also agreed to help coach for this game.
As for what to ask coaches, you can ask them if you are arguing about the right kinds of things or going about things in the right kinds of ways. Please do not ask them to do an analysis for you or if they think so-and-so is mafia.
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Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 25 2012 13:28 zarepath wrote: So, the first question I think has to be this:
What do we want to accomplish on Day 1?
We either no-lynch or randomly lynch, as far as I can tell. We don't have much game history to draw upon as far as deciding who to cut early.
I see several possible outcomes:
Randomly lynch a mafia/red: This is clearly the best possible outcome. If we have worthwhile hunches to go on, it's possible we can lynch a mafia on the first Day. From what I've read it's unlikely, but still possible; it all depends on what kind of discussion we see today.
Randomly lynch a townie/blue: Bad. The only upside is that we can then use the information from that lynching to determine likely mafia. Who was most excited about randomly lynching that particular person? Who bandwagonned on? Who were the last few votes who made the lynch possible?
No-lynch: We don't get a mafia, or confirmation of who isn't mafia. Because there's no risk of lynching a townie/blue, this seems to be very safe.
But what I wonder is this: if we don't lynch anyone today, our information for Day 2 is limited, and we give the mafia a night to kill someone. We end up with 1 dead townie before we're willing to make deductions. Maybe it's riskier to not lynch someone on the first night, because we'd have less information to go on.
So what I'm suggesting is this: we lynch someone randomly. Say, by reverse-alphabetical order. There's no reason at all for us to suspect this person. But by deciding to lynch them, we'll either see a lot of defense (ie, they're mafia), or a lot of people agreeing with killing that person (ie, those people are mafia.) Once that person flips blue or red, we'll know who was who.
TLDR; I suggest that we randomly lynch zelblade, or seriously discuss it, and see what happens from there.
Gentlemen,
First post and we are already talking about Random Lynches. I am definitely not a fan of it. Part of lynches, even if it's a miss-lynch, is that it still has the possibility of giving you information. Every little detail can give you information. I will not endorse a random lynch, especially so early in the game.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 25 2012 14:05 MidnightGladius wrote: And we're off! I'm looking forward to an exciting and educating game. I'd like to begin Day 1 with earnest and open discussion, with high activity and clear lines of reasoning. My style of scumhunting is to use Bayesian inference on evidence derived from the character and reasoning of peoples' posts. The base rate of being mafia is 4/13.
Considering that I can confirm myself as innocent, the chance of anyone else being mafia, a priori, is 1/3. The probability distribution will change as people post and reveal their motivations, until I'm willing to lynch someone on even odds or better.
Regardless, in the interests of objectivity, it is important to keep in mind the base rate, the false positive rate, and the true positive rate. Any statement can be made by either an innocent or a mafia, and the prior rate is fairly low. Thus, it is important to isolate statements that exclusively mafia would make, or at least to find examples of reasoning that lean towards indicating mafia motivations. This way, we can try to prevent suffering from confirmation bias and scumhunt more effectively.
On the topic of zarepath's proposal, I find it alarming. Lynching randomly has a 1/3 chance of success, which is far too low for me to support. Your reasoning, especially, suffers from confirmation bias. In response to this plan, anyone can either a) support the lynch, b) argue against the lynch, and c) say nothing. Since saying nothing leads to modkills, we can eliminate the case.
Supporting the lynch, in your argument, is evidence of being mafia. However, you claim that arguing against the lynch is also evidence of being mafia. That is inconsistent, unless you would like to claim which case is more indicative of being mafia.
To continue, the "random" process used to select zelblade is also odd. Why not use either an entirely random process (RNG), or one that is motivated by initial evidence (on the basis of inactivity or level of contribution)?
In conclusion, I have to defer my support for zarepath's proposal, and I am also inclined to raise suspicions towards him. His plan has a low probability of success, and his procedure for deriving information from ensuing discussion is flawed with confirmation bias.
Could we instead opt to lynch on the basis of inactivity and low levels of contribution? The odds are no worse than a random selection, so long as everyone is participating properly, and this encourages the generation of more useful information than zarepath's choice of testimony would.
I'm not quite sure what you are trying to say, because it's really not clear in anyway. You're talking about Bayesian inference, and yet, i'm quite sure a small majority of this game would even know what that is, let alone understand how it works. You don't even bother to explain it - you just continue on describing the in's and out's how the Theory works. But at the end of it all, it comes down to the "importance of isolating statements mafia would make," which is what happens in pretty much every mafia game.
So instead of having you fall into you're own confirmation bias, are you going to let go of you're statistics theory and play the game? If you want to scum hunt more effectively, be my guest, but don't take two paragraphs describing a system of mathematical reasoning that the majority of this game probably don't understand. It amounts to nothing.
You want you're reads, you're analysis, and everything you have, to be 100% clear, transparent, and easy to read for everyone to see in the thread. Trying to confuse people Day 1 and fog up everyone's view about how you are going to hunt scum isn't the way of going about it.
With all that being said, on to my personal ideas about lynch targets this early. I don't think a random lynch, as I stated before, to be anything good. Information can be gleaned even from a miss-lynch. As for lynching lurkers/inactive players, it is also not effective in aiding us. What do we gain from killing a lurker? I see little gain coming from it, except with the off-chance that they flip red. I'd much rather use logical reasoning to determine who would should hang Day 1, and there is still plenty of time to do just that.
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I'm sorry if my first post came across as unhelpful, but I want to establish first principles before getting down to the nitty-gritty. I'll try to be more clear and direct.
In simpler terms, players who suggest courses of action that hurt the town's chances are suspicious, as innocents should never be making these kinds of proposals unless they have much more information than they're letting on. As it's Day 1, this is clearly impossible, so I look askance at zarepath and FakePromise, who both advocate a plan with very low expected value.
The other part of my methods take a bit longer to develop, as I need to see more posts before picking up any trends. Scummy behavior is such that it betrays access to hidden information, and then does not adjust accordingly as information is made public to the town. Players who behave in this way are either not updating their beliefs properly (tunnel-vision, confirmation bias, or ignorance are common causes), or updating them according to hidden information (perhaps a blue investigative role, but overwhelmingly likely to be mafia).
Does that explain my position more clearly?
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Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
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With regards to your lynch proposal, I don't agree with not pressuring lurking/inactive players with the threat of a first-day lynch. Truly non-participating players can be excluded from analysis due to modkilling, and it stands to reason that more posting of positions will increase the sample size of data.
What logic would you claim to use on the first day? There is insufficient data to make any valid attempts at deduction, induction, or hypothesis. With what is available to you now, would you take even odds or better on any accusation?
I see the point of the first day as creating the pool of data required for later analysis, and the simplest incentive for players to do that is to lynch them if they don't.
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There is no reason our first lynch should be random. We need to use the threat of lynching to put pressure on lurkers and suspicious people. This needs to start today. If we seriously consider a no lynch today all we do is encourage passive play. We should be creating opportunities to gain information and put pressure. The worst thing we can give the mafia is time.
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EBWOP: Ninja'd, the "you" in the above post still refers to Bromancipate.
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On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
Ok this post is really weird.
1) OP clearly states Mafia KP.
On January 24 2012 08:35 dreamflower wrote: Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining.
Of course this is a newbie game so y'know, people make mistakes.
2) This post doesn't actually give us anything new or that helpful. We can do the math and figure how many mislynches we have till Lylo, which isn't information you typically use day 1. I mean, unless you push for no lynch, how's that info help?
3) This is the part that got me from giving benefit of the doubt to feeling weird:
On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
What the heck? Who does this? Who addresses town? A town post would have started at "we need to post more ...".
#FOS zelblade
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On January 25 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
Ok this post is really weird. 1) OP clearly states Mafia KP. Show nested quote +On January 24 2012 08:35 dreamflower wrote: Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining.
Of course this is a newbie game so y'know, people make mistakes. 2) This post doesn't actually give us anything new or that helpful. We can do the math and figure how many mislynches we have till Lylo, which isn't information you typically use day 1. I mean, unless you push for no lynch, how's that info help? 3) This is the part that got me from giving benefit of the doubt to feeling weird: Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
What the heck? Who does this? Who addresses town? A town post would have started at "we need to post more ...". #FOS zelblade
1) Opps my bad, didnt see that part.
2) I was simply trying to generate some discussion as it would seem that no one was talking much, and trying to emphasise that we need to use our lynches carefully.
3) I am sorry if that came off at scummy, and what i simply meant by that part was that town needs to post more.
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Ok, my take on this:
First of, "randomly" lynching in the way zarepath proposed sounds strange. First of all, it is not truly random if we discuss the person we are lynching together with the random lynch. This would actually give mafia a very, very easy day 1, which is not something we want. They either just stay middle profile and lynch the person at hand with low danger to themselves, because they would only have to support the system of a random lynch, and not the actual lynch of a person. And if the "random" targeted person is one of theirs, they just have to state that they are against random lynching in general.
If we would want to lynch randomly, we should first decide that we do that, and then somehow randomize whom we vote for afterwards. However, since we don't have any reliable way of randomizing as a group, it would always ultimately be up to one single person, so when we say we lynch randomly, we basically give the decision of whom we lynch to one single man, who might or might not randomize. That does not really sound extraordinarely smart in my opinion, especially since we even give him a very good excuse should he lynch an innocent. So instead of having to guess one mafia, we now have to guess one townie only to even get a random lynch.
Next, we have the possibility of not lynching. While this gives additional information for our first lynch, it also gives the mafia a free kill. I don't really like doing that.
Then we have a policy lynch on a hard lurker. I think this is actually not a really good idea. All the mafia needs to do to avoid this is post a few more or less interesting posts to not be hardlurker, and they get a free kill with nearly no information for us out of it. They don't even need to bandwagon or use their combined influence.
So, we are left with talking, and finding a good target for a lynch. This is generally a good idea, but we have to keep in mind that mafia is probably trying to influence our aggression onto one of ours (which also gives us more information lateron)
And despite the general strangeness (scumminess?) of zelblades post, he still has a point in that bar extraordinary circumstances (which i think are actually not that unlikely, the mafia density leads me to believe that we probably have some blues, as others have pointed out before, too), we only have 2 mislynches. So if we lynch, we should lynch in a way that gives us maximum information, so no random or policy lynch.
At the moment, i would say that zelblade looks pretty strange, as sloosh has pointed out. Of course he has to defend himself, but afterwards he first argues for a lurker lynch, and then in his next post points out that we need to use our mislynches very carefully, since we only got a very limited amount of those. A policy lynch is not a lynch that gives a lot of information, so those both posts contradict each other very much.
And the "everyone needs to post more" part looks like trying to post more without actually saying much in my opinion.
However, i would also like to hear more from the people who have not yet posted anything.
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On January 25 2012 14:19 zelblade wrote: I disagree with zarepath's plan to "randomly" lynch me. Of course i am being a litte biased here, but how does randomly lynching me provide any sort of information? How does me/others defending myself = mafia? Any player, regardless of aglinment, is going to defend themselves either way, as getting lynched in either case is bad for their team, and chances to win.
Thus, i believe that lynching me or anyone else "randomly" is a horrible idea.
As for what to do with our day 1 lynch, i suggest that we lynch a lurker unless a better canditate comes up. Remember that we still have alot of time left before the deadline, so we should utilize this time well to discuss and find a better lynch candidate than lynching by reverse-alphabetical order.
The point is that upon flip, we have much more to go on. Anyone irrationally defending you now, if it turns out you're mafia, has a solid chance of also being mafia. So no, not anyone defending you is necessarily mafia, and not necessarily anyone accusing you, but upon flip, we can figure out which side of that we can throw our suspicions.
After reading others' responses to the idea: no, a RNG lynch would NOT be as useful to us, because we don't learn anything from it (as has been pointed out). By me randomly accusing someone, that person is forced to speak, and others are forced to defend if mafia/bandwagon if he's not.
I argue that the process has already begun, based on the content of some of these posts.
I think the strongest argument against doing this is that, because of the high mafia/town ratio, we only have 2 miss-lynches before it's LYLO, as zelblade pointed out.
On January 25 2012 15:24 DoYouHas wrote: There is no reason our first lynch should be random. We need to use the threat of lynching to put pressure on lurkers and suspicious people. This needs to start today. If we seriously consider a no lynch today all we do is encourage passive play. We should be creating opportunities to gain information and put pressure. The worst thing we can give the mafia is time.
Lynching lurkers is not as great a strategy as it sounds. As others pointed out, mafia can just decide to post more, and then suddenly we're looking at lynching the less-active townies just because they don't talk enough. People who don't post at all get modkilled anyway, and seeing as how this is a newbie game, there are probably several lurkers who just don't know where to get started.
I also agree that we should go after suspicious people. And I think we'll find out who they are by continuing to pressure zelblade.
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On January 25 2012 15:15 MidnightGladius wrote: I'm sorry if my first post came across as unhelpful, but I want to establish first principles before getting down to the nitty-gritty. I'll try to be more clear and direct.
In simpler terms, players who suggest courses of action that hurt the town's chances are suspicious, as innocents should never be making these kinds of proposals unless they have much more information than they're letting on. As it's Day 1, this is clearly impossible, so I look askance at zarepath and FakePromise, who both advocate a plan with very low expected value.
The other part of my methods take a bit longer to develop, as I need to see more posts before picking up any trends. Scummy behavior is such that it betrays access to hidden information, and then does not adjust accordingly as information is made public to the town. Players who behave in this way are either not updating their beliefs properly (tunnel-vision, confirmation bias, or ignorance are common causes), or updating them according to hidden information (perhaps a blue investigative role, but overwhelmingly likely to be mafia).
Does that explain my position more clearly?
The only problem with that is you confuse your actual detective for mafia just because he operates on hidden knowledge. The detective has an incentive to operate on hidden knowledge, while the mafia has no hidden knowledge to go off of except who else is mafia, and they're not going to talk about that.
Also, I would save theorytalk for when it's actually applicable. Otherwise it looks like you're just making empty posts.
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On January 25 2012 14:05 MidnightGladius wrote: Supporting the lynch, in your argument, is evidence of being mafia. However, you claim that arguing against the lynch is also evidence of being mafia. That is inconsistent, unless you would like to claim which case is more indicative of being mafia.
Upon flip, we'll know whether the plan's supporters or detractors were likely mafia or not. Not both sides at once, regardless of flip.
It's far better than a random lynch because, with a specific target, people have to reveal themselves by defending/accusing him. The information we gain from his flip then has repercussions; the information we'd gain from a random lynch would just be hit/miss with zero opportunity for analysis, save theory-based ("anyone who votes for random is mafia" "with 4/13 random vote is actually worse for mafia" etc.). Instead we can see who defended him and who attacked him and have actual leads from there headed into Day 2.
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On January 25 2012 15:24 MidnightGladius wrote: What logic would you claim to use on the first day? There is insufficient data to make any valid attempts at deduction, induction, or hypothesis. With what is available to you now, would you take even odds or better on any accusation?
The odds only get better when more townies die and more mafia are alive, so I think that a strategy of "playing the odds" is destined for failure. Mafia is more a game of deduction than it is of numbers. You have to start by making plays for information, and simply killing people who don't give information, in addition to being a bad "odds" play, doesn't create information. It just punishes people who will get punished anyway by mods. At 4/9 odds, we don't have a day to waste on policy lynches that the mods will already be doing for us.
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I think we can all agree that a random strategy for a prolonged period of time is destined to failure, simply because the odds of mafia succeeding on the long run if we as town play on pure chance is exceedingly high. Also, chance lynches don't produce information. Furthermore, we don't even have the possibility to do a random lynch safely, so that is even more reason to stop discussing it, and do something a bit more productive with our time.
If i am not totally mistaken, we need to produce information. If we just play by chance, we will lose. Thus, i would really like to here more peoples take on zelblade, who in my opinion looks a bit strange at the moment. That, of course, includes zelblade himself, but also SacredSystem, Chocolate, DoYouHas, FakePromise, bal11t, CosmosXAM and TheFearedBeing, all of whom have barely contributed at all so far.
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On January 25 2012 19:30 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 15:15 MidnightGladius wrote: I'm sorry if my first post came across as unhelpful, but I want to establish first principles before getting down to the nitty-gritty. I'll try to be more clear and direct.
In simpler terms, players who suggest courses of action that hurt the town's chances are suspicious, as innocents should never be making these kinds of proposals unless they have much more information than they're letting on. As it's Day 1, this is clearly impossible, so I look askance at zarepath and FakePromise, who both advocate a plan with very low expected value.
The other part of my methods take a bit longer to develop, as I need to see more posts before picking up any trends. Scummy behavior is such that it betrays access to hidden information, and then does not adjust accordingly as information is made public to the town. Players who behave in this way are either not updating their beliefs properly (tunnel-vision, confirmation bias, or ignorance are common causes), or updating them according to hidden information (perhaps a blue investigative role, but overwhelmingly likely to be mafia).
Does that explain my position more clearly? The only problem with that is you confuse your actual detective for mafia just because he operates on hidden knowledge. The detective has an incentive to operate on hidden knowledge, while the mafia has no hidden knowledge to go off of except who else is mafia, and they're not going to talk about that. Also, I would save theorytalk for when it's actually applicable. Otherwise it looks like you're just making empty posts.
"No hidden knowledge except who else is mafia". That is the most important hidden knowledge in the whole game. Of course they will not explicitly mention it, but the whole process of finding hidden knowledge is based on people slipping something they don't consciously mean to say. You can't just turn of knowledge of something, so everything you know will unconsciously go into every post you make. So if it becomes obvious that someone is pulling knowledge from some source that is not this thread, that at least makes him a person of interest.
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If anyone wants the link to the observer QuickTopic, please PM either dreamflower or myself.
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Hey guys sorry I have not been able to post TT. I have read the thread and it appears you all are trying to decide how to do the first day lynch. We SHOULD NOT randomly lynch someone and find people who defended him if mafia or bamdwagoned if he flips town. A smart mafia would simply bandwagon one of their own if we decide to certainly kill one person. And a smart mafia would not simply bandwagon someone of they are likely to die anyway. The best approach is simply lynching who we think is the scummiest or people inactive but not so inactive that they get modkilled.
As of right now my two people of interest are zarepath and fakepromise. Zarepath for introducing the idea which really only benefits scum if they have half a brain and fakepromise for thinking 30% of finding scum is a good bet 0_o
I should post again around 3EST I encourage everypne to post their minds. Bah I made so many errors but posting on my iphone so I really dont want to correct them
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Okay, forget random lynching. I still think targeting someone randomly and seeing how they respond is better than policy-lynching the quiet people, but I think it's a good point that with 4 mafia, we can only miss-lynch twice.
But we need something to go on; some way of getting info. I have a few ideas but there are still a lot of people we haven't heard from. Quiet people need to speak up soon.
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On January 25 2012 14:19 zelblade wrote:As for what to do with our day 1 lynch, i suggest that we lynch a lurker unless a better canditate comes up. Remember that we still have alot of time left before the deadline, so we should utilize this time well to discuss and find a better lynch candidate than lynching by reverse-alphabetical order.
If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating).
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Well, regarding the mislynches, i thought about this for a while. I think we can assume that we have blues on our side for balance reasons. But even a successful save(medic/vet), or vigi hit, will not give us an additional mislynch. We would need two of those, and i don't think we should rely on that.
But, and that is very important, this also means we can not NoLynch. If we nolynch, and don't get any saves, we can only mislynch once.
Since everyone feels like saying this, i will just emphasize it again. Talk. At the moment, we still have 6 people who have basically not participated at all, and that does just not work. We can't policy-lynch 6 people, so if you don't talk, you actively hurt us. The only persons who have any reason to lurk are mafia, but since we have 6 people without posts with any substance, at least 2 of those are doing that against their own interest.
Now, instead of pointless policy, lets talk about persons.
CosmosXAM is suspicious. First he is so enthusiastic before the game:
Really excited for this, can't wait till 9 :D
And then, as soon as the game starts, there is nothing anymore. I find that highly noteworthy. This does not mean that i see zelblade cleared, he is also pretty high on my list of suspicious persons, but if i had to decide on a lynch now, it would be CosmosXAM, since he is both suspicious AND a lurker.
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On January 26 2012 00:14 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 14:19 zelblade wrote:As for what to do with our day 1 lynch, i suggest that we lynch a lurker unless a better canditate comes up. Remember that we still have alot of time left before the deadline, so we should utilize this time well to discuss and find a better lynch candidate than lynching by reverse-alphabetical order. If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating).
Also, this post that snuck in above me sounds strange in my opinion.
I think pretty much everyone agrees that we should not random lynch, so why bring it up again to debunk it again? And other than that it contains absolutely no new information, for me this looks a lot like a post for postings sake, and not an actual contribution towards our goals. This just feels scummy.
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EBWOP
And that (no random lynching) includes zarepath who has also already stated that he does not believe in random lynching anymore. So why did you bring him up again?
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On January 26 2012 00:29 Simberto wrote: EBWOP
And that (no random lynching) includes zarepath who has also already stated that he does not believe in random lynching anymore. So why did you bring him up again?
I was trying to explain the contradiction u pointed out earlier.
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On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO
On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote: I think the strongest argument against doing this is that, because of the high mafia/town ratio, we only have 2 miss-lynches before it's LYLO, as zelblade pointed out.
On January 25 2012 23:55 zarepath wrote: Okay, forget random lynching. I still think targeting someone randomly and seeing how they respond is better than policy-lynching the quiet people, but I think it's a good point that with 4 mafia, we can only miss-lynch twice.
I would like to stop this poor logic before it ingrates itself into the town's mindset:
Knowing how many mislynches we have does NOTHING. You don't say, oh we have spare townies we can just make this questionable lynch, it's ok if we mess up since its not lylo yet.
Also, I the idea of random lynches has been SHUT DOWN. We've discussed that it is a poor idea. We should stop discussing unless someone brings up a good counter point. Otherwise we have mafia getting away with agreement posts that are insubstantial but impress the notion that they are helping town and contributing.
Fostering discussion is not the goal. Fostering good discussion is the goal.
Talking about topics that everyone has already talked about and agreed upon is not discussion. It is clutter and an opportunity for mafia to pretend to contribute. Please stop.
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Blazinghand
United States25545 Posts
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EBWOP:
Fostering good discussion is the goal where good is defined as catching and killing mafia. Everything we do should fall under this category and if it doesn't we shouldn't do it.
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But that does not mean that you necessarily only talk about stuff that immidiately leads to a mafia kill. Generally speaking anything that increases the amount of information we have is a good thing. Even if that information is not really useful now, it can be worth a lot lateron.
Don't get me wrong, i agree with you, i just want to prevent us from going from talking about useless stuff to not talking at all.
Generally speaking, anything where there are disagreements is good, anything that just states that we are all buddies and everyone loves each other and thinks exactly the same is bad. (As long as it is related to the game)
Thus, i would propose that instead of meta-meta talk we should talk about lynchings and plans. Since noone has a plan (me included), lets talk about good lynch targets for today.
On my list, this would be
zelblade CosmosXAM Rest of the lurkers (TheFearedBeing, DoYouHas, SacredSystem, FakePromise, balt11t)
There are other people on whom we do not have a lot of information, but who at least have posted something so far. These might or might not be good targets too, but in my opinion those first two are the most suspicious from what i have seen so far, with zelblade being the most suspicious person who has posted so far, and CosmosXAM being the most suspicious person who has not yet posted. So lets talk about them.
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On January 26 2012 00:45 Blazinghand wrote: No popcorn please. Also, please don't post here until after the game ends if you aren't a coach, a player, or a host.
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On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 15:24 DoYouHas wrote: There is no reason our first lynch should be random. We need to use the threat of lynching to put pressure on lurkers and suspicious people. This needs to start today. If we seriously consider a no lynch today all we do is encourage passive play. We should be creating opportunities to gain information and put pressure. The worst thing we can give the mafia is time. Lynching lurkers is not as great a strategy as it sounds. As others pointed out, mafia can just decide to post more, and then suddenly we're looking at lynching the less-active townies just because they don't talk enough. People who don't post at all get modkilled anyway, and seeing as how this is a newbie game, there are probably several lurkers who just don't know where to get started. I also agree that we should go after suspicious people. And I think we'll find out who they are by continuing to pressure zelblade.
From the general tone of the posting so far I agree that today we are more likely to get mafia by lynching someone suspicious rather than a lurker. If people come up with better ways of getting lurkers active I am all ears.
As for things I have looked at so far, I am not going to reiterate points made on MidnightGladius and zelblade but here are a couple of people on the lurker list whose first posts were very similar and I did not like.
On January 25 2012 13:57 balt11t wrote: FakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk.
On January 25 2012 14:07 balt11t wrote: In extension, I feel as though the proposed plan by zarepath is simply too great of a risk. Why take nearly a 70% chance of taking an innocent person's life? No, we should wait to find the lurkers, I agree with slOosh, we need to wait for a little more discussion to happen in order to make a decision.
What bothers me in the first post is the second half. He is making the statement "That seems scummy." but unnecessarily longer and strangely worded. In his second post he tones down the strange wording a bit but more troubling is his espousing of a wait and see style. We need to be making discussion happen, not just letting it happen.
On January 25 2012 14:55 SacredSystem wrote: Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
This caught my attention after I had been looking at balt11t. It is almost the exact same post. Lengthy substitute for scummy, wait and see attitude (though even worse this time), and pointing to Fakepromise's questionable agreement with a random lynch.
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Interesting find, and definitively noteworthy. This points some suspicion towards the second one posting the same thing, in this case that would be SacredSystem.
However, with the speed with which we progress at the moment, i think we should seriously talk about our lynching now if we want to get it done in time. In my opinion, since a NoLynch is pretty much as bad as a mislynch in our current state, while providing less information, we should lynch someone.
As a have said before, my candidate for a good lynch at the moment would be zelblade. Also, he does not seem inclined to defend himself. This is based mostly on:
On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and
On January 26 2012 00:14 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 14:19 zelblade wrote:As for what to do with our day 1 lynch, i suggest that we lynch a lurker unless a better canditate comes up. Remember that we still have alot of time left before the deadline, so we should utilize this time well to discuss and find a better lynch candidate than lynching by reverse-alphabetical order. If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating).
Bringing up a long-resolved point to distract the discussion.
Sure, this is not the strongest case one can build, but it is day 1 after all. And in my opinion it is the strongest case we have at the moment.
And sure, there could be lots of mafia hiding between the lurkers, but there is nothing one can realistically do againt that, since i don't think all or even most of the mafia are lurking that hard (sounds stupid), and we can't realistically policy-lynch 5-6 people, so the only thing one can do about that is hope that they start talking to us or get modkilled.
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Are there any rules regarding changing your vote, or can i do that without limits whenever i want to?
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On January 26 2012 01:02 Simberto wrote: But that does not mean that you necessarily only talk about stuff that immidiately leads to a mafia kill. Generally speaking anything that increases the amount of information we have is a good thing. Even if that information is not really useful now, it can be worth a lot lateron.
Don't get me wrong, i agree with you, i just want to prevent us from going from talking about useless stuff to not talking at all.
Generally speaking, anything where there are disagreements is good, anything that just states that we are all buddies and everyone loves each other and thinks exactly the same is bad. (As long as it is related to the game)
Thus, i would propose that instead of meta-meta talk we should talk about lynchings and plans. Since noone has a plan (me included), lets talk about good lynch targets for today.
On my list, this would be
zelblade CosmosXAM Rest of the lurkers (TheFearedBeing, DoYouHas, SacredSystem, FakePromise, balt11t)
There are other people on whom we do not have a lot of information, but who at least have posted something so far. These might or might not be good targets too, but in my opinion those first two are the most suspicious from what i have seen so far, with zelblade being the most suspicious person who has posted so far, and CosmosXAM being the most suspicious person who has not yet posted. So lets talk about them.
Note: I started writing this post, went to class, and came back to finish it.
CosmosXAM's lack of activity is odd, but he hasn't posted elsewhere on TL since then, and his posting history seems to indicate a low rate of posting in general. Therefore, I would caution against pushing for lynching him on the basis of this alone. Of course, if he still doesn't participate after rejoining us in this thread, then that would be evidence against him.
In terms of zelblade's behavior, it does strike me as a bit unsettled. His tone has been unusually reticient, with the majority of his posts so far starting with some kind of apology. Then again, zarepath's plan put him under the spotlight for no real reason, which is an awkward place to be on the first day. I'm willing to give zelblade the benefit of the doubt for now, as I have stronger suspicions towards other players.
To begin, I'm very concerned with zarepath for proposing his plan, and with FakePromise for agreeing to it immediately and with little additional content.
Starting with zarepath, his decision on how to retract his plan following our criticism of it reflects a few flaws in his reasoning. He claimed that anyone defending zelblade "irrationally" would have a higher chance of being mafia, but it is obvious that this trap will fail, because rational arguments (as made by almost everyone, barring FakePromise) are enough to shoot it down. His argument against RNG lynching also indicates that he hadn't thought through that proposal, but zelblade discussed that already.
Other indicators include his unwillingness to pressure lurkers, low-content posters, and inactive players. He argues that this would only force mafia to post more than the least-active innocent players, but that's exactly what we want: more content from players who would be most content saying nothing. The more they say, the more they're likely to slip up and reveal access to hidden information.
Regarding hidden information, I agree that the way the detective and the mafia operate are on broadly similar lines, and both try to avoid painting targets on themselves by pushing lynch targets with public and not hidden information. Assuming that both players are likely to make slips at the same rate, I presume that there are more mafia than detectives, even in this lopsided setup, so it is still valuable to identify such players. Pressuring a detective at worst generates confirmed information. Pressuring a mafia leads to more mafia mistakes.
Continuing to FakePromise, I'm just going to reiterate that no innocent player should ever, after a cursory glance, support a suboptimal plan with unfavorable odds when there is still time before finalizing a lynch to press for more information. When you return, I would love to hear your reasoning in defense of this.
At this point, and contingent on the other inactive players posting more, I would strongly favor lynching FakePromise.
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On January 26 2012 04:02 Simberto wrote: Are there any rules regarding changing your vote, or can i do that without limits whenever i want to? You can change your vote as many times as you want to as long as the new vote is still a legal vote (remember, you can't vote for yourself or someone dead or outside the game etc.). Do not edit your old post which contained your old vote though.
As a favor to us to make the votecounting easier, we would like it if you posted ##Unvote: PlayerYouAreNotVotingForNow before you post your new vote, but we can figure it out if you forget.
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On January 26 2012 04:11 MidnightGladius wrote: Other indicators include his unwillingness to pressure lurkers, low-content posters, and inactive players. He argues that this would only force mafia to post more than the least-active innocent players, but that's exactly what we want: more content from players who would be most content saying nothing. The more they say, the more they're likely to slip up and reveal access to hidden information.
Forcing mafia to post more is always good, granted. But if the only reason they're posting more is so that we eliminate one of our obviously inactive townies, it would be better to focus our lynch on an active, suspicious person. The inactive townies will get replaced by active players and then we'll know who was lurking and who was just inactive.
So yes, let's pressure the inactives and see what happens. But I would much rather lynch an active suspicious person than someone who probably just AFK'd a couple days.
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You guys need to stop saying "Lets pressure xyz". It is not really pressure if the person in question knows that you don't really want to lynch them. So, if you say, "lets pressure xyz", you don't actually pressure them at all. If you want to pressure someone, pressure them, but don't just say that you want to pressure them, that is not pressure.
Other then that, i am going to bed now, i hope for lots of juicy posts in the morning.
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EBWOP: My suspicions are also on FakePromise for the super quick agreement with specious reasoning, on zenblade for being rather jumpy and apologetic in the spotlight, and CosmosXAM's lack of activity (despite essentially declaring he would be super active at the beginning).
I'm not as concerned about balt and SacredSystem... I think the way they framed their accusations was more out of noobishness than it was a sign of confederacy. I'd like to hear what they both think about Fake, zen, and Cosmos.
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Also, i noticed this interesting thing in the rules: "Mafia win condition : You win when the # of mafia alive is equal to or greater than the # of other players alive." Is that actually correct? Because in case there is a vigilante on our team, mafia could still lose majority after having an equal amount of players once by missing their shot to a medic/vet and getting vigilanted
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CosmosXAM still has yet to post... let's make him ##vote: CosmosXAM
Still looking at zellblade & zarepath but we've seen them post and zare is pretty active, zellblade may just be making nooby mistakes but he has still posted oddly.
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Even if technically the town could outlast the Mafia with fewer members, the game still ends as soon as the number of Mafia equals the number of town players and is considered a Mafia victory.
Also, please post your votes in the voting thread. You are highly encouraged to post your votes here as well, but they will only be counted if they are in the voting thread.
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My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post.
As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned.
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On January 26 2012 04:39 Simberto wrote: You guys need to stop saying "Lets pressure xyz". It is not really pressure if the person in question knows that you don't really want to lynch them. So, if you say, "lets pressure xyz", you don't actually pressure them at all. If you want to pressure someone, pressure them, but don't just say that you want to pressure them, that is not pressure.
Other then that, i am going to bed now, i hope for lots of juicy posts in the morning.
I want to hear FakePromise defend himself, and he should certainly have the chance to do so before the lynch decision is made final, but I agree with you in principle.
##vote: FakePromise
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I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast.
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On January 26 2012 06:39 CosmosXAM wrote: I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast. Right, we've moved on past random lynching.
Who do you think is suspicious?
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On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:
Right, we've moved on past random lynching.
Who do you think is suspicious?
you and fakepromise
you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you
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On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:39 CosmosXAM wrote: I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast. Right, we've moved on past random lynching. Who do you think is suspicious?
If I had to say I would probably go with fakepromise because of how he was so quick to agree. Also Chocolate seems mildly suspicious because of his quick jump to voting straight for me based on little information, but I havent found enough conclusive evidence to make a post strongly against someone. This is just my first game and I can only be active for a few hours in the day so hopefully people dont misconstrue that information.
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It's a standard strategy for getting people, especially lurkers, to post. Don't take it too personally, if you had made posts it just would've been someone else. If you don't believe me you can read previous mafia games
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I believe zelblade is our best lynch option. Just look at what he did when thrust into the spotlight.
On January 25 2012 15:48 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote:On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
Ok this post is really weird. 1) OP clearly states Mafia KP. On January 24 2012 08:35 dreamflower wrote: Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining.
Of course this is a newbie game so y'know, people make mistakes. 2) This post doesn't actually give us anything new or that helpful. We can do the math and figure how many mislynches we have till Lylo, which isn't information you typically use day 1. I mean, unless you push for no lynch, how's that info help? 3) This is the part that got me from giving benefit of the doubt to feeling weird: On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
What the heck? Who does this? Who addresses town? A town post would have started at "we need to post more ...". #FOS zelblade 1) Opps my bad, didnt see that part. 2) I was simply trying to generate some discussion as it would seem that no one was talking much, and trying to emphasise that we need to use our lynches carefully. 3) I am sorry if that came off at scummy, and what i simply meant by that part was that town needs to post more.
On January 26 2012 00:14 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 14:19 zelblade wrote:As for what to do with our day 1 lynch, i suggest that we lynch a lurker unless a better canditate comes up. Remember that we still have alot of time left before the deadline, so we should utilize this time well to discuss and find a better lynch candidate than lynching by reverse-alphabetical order. If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating).
On January 26 2012 00:37 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 00:29 Simberto wrote: EBWOP
And that (no random lynching) includes zarepath who has also already stated that he does not believe in random lynching anymore. So why did you bring him up again? I was trying to explain the contradiction u pointed out earlier. He has been apologizing and clarifying posts (which were already pretty clear) ever since spl0osh criticized his second post. Instead of using the spotlight to voice his own suspicions or convince us of his innocence, he has tried to move out of the spotlight as quickly and quietly as possible, while avoiding offending anyone. While his initial posts weren't particularly scummy, his responses have been nothing but suspicious.
## Vote: zelblade
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On January 26 2012 08:27 SacredSystem wrote: ## vote: FakePromise 1: you gotta vote in the voting thread http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=306091 and 2: I find it a bit odd your jump from On January 25 2012 14:55 SacredSystem wrote: However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
to straight up voting for him, I mean sure he now has two votes going for him but you said that you wanted to wait for more information and based on him only posting once and your points about him just being copy&paste what other people had said earlier and not offering any new information or opinions I find your vote to be very bandwagon-ey. I am not trying to say that you are mafia or to go as far as that but just pointing out that simply copying what others say and blindly agreeing is very suspicious.
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Can I join this please? Please tell me it isn't too late to join!
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On January 26 2012 09:22 gumshoe wrote: Can I join this please? Please tell me it isn't too late to join! Way to late to join, please read the whole thread before doing something like this.
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On January 26 2012 09:22 gumshoe wrote: Can I join this please? Please tell me it isn't too late to join! Sorry, this game is full and has already started. We can put you on the replacements list if you like.
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On January 26 2012 09:04 CosmosXAM wrote:1: you gotta vote in the voting thread http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=306091and 2: I find it a bit odd your jump from Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 14:55 SacredSystem wrote: However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
to straight up voting for him, I mean sure he now has two votes going for him but you said that you wanted to wait for more information and based on him only posting once and your points about him just being copy&paste what other people had said earlier and not offering any new information or opinions I find your vote to be very bandwagon-ey. I am not trying to say that you are mafia or to go as far as that but just pointing out that simply copying what others say and blindly agreeing is very suspicious.
i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumuptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing
also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it
now fakepromise made a decision which doenst make much sense from the townes perspective, now im not assuming anything in sayin that, which is why im voting for fakepromise as mafia
sorry i forgot about the voting thread
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You say we shouldn't make wild assumptions based on inconclusive traps, yet you've changed whom you would vote for in such a short amount of time, without providing much logic for doing so.
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On January 26 2012 10:59 balt11t wrote: You say we shouldn't make wild assumptions based on inconclusive traps, yet you've changed whom you would vote for in such a short amount of time, without providing much logic for doing so.
what?? when did i change my mind, i just made up my mind, and is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you
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I apologize, that made sense in my head, but I obviously came across wrong. You advised to take caution, yet you so quickly decide to accuse FakePromise? There is much time left to decide, and a lot of time yet to gather more information (your original strategy).
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i advised against making non conclusive accusations
accusing fakepromise seems conclusive to me even though i probably should have waited
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I'm back. Was in class all day. Just finished reading thread a few times. Few things in particular caught my eye.
I would really like to see FakePromise get back in here. The point (I say point, because he has only one post in this game) is very valid. Things that did catch my eye is his apparent "don't care" attutude about whether the lynch is successful or not. "seems good to me." Seems good to you? I see. Get back here in defend yourself. You are already on the chopping block.
On January 25 2012 15:15 MidnightGladius wrote: I'm sorry if my first post came across as unhelpful, but I want to establish first principles before getting down to the nitty-gritty. I'll try to be more clear and direct.
In simpler terms, players who suggest courses of action that hurt the town's chances are suspicious, as innocents should never be making these kinds of proposals unless they have much more information than they're letting on. As it's Day 1, this is clearly impossible, so I look askance at zarepath and FakePromise, who both advocate a plan with very low expected value.
The other part of my methods take a bit longer to develop, as I need to see more posts before picking up any trends. Scummy behavior is such that it betrays access to hidden information, and then does not adjust accordingly as information is made public to the town. Players who behave in this way are either not updating their beliefs properly (tunnel-vision, confirmation bias, or ignorance are common causes), or updating them according to hidden information (perhaps a blue investigative role, but overwhelmingly likely to be mafia).
Does that explain my position more clearly?
As for the second part of you're methods. If i'm reading it right (and I would like to think that I am, since I've read it three times now) says that players who "betray access to hidden information, and then do not adjust accordingly as information is made public to the town" is scummy behavior. So, if a Detective in this game finds someone that's Mafia, do you think he should out himself as soon as possible and tell everyone what he's found? Or should he betray the town of this information?
That in combination with you're voting makes me worried:
On January 25 2012 15:24 MidnightGladius wrote: With regards to your lynch proposal, I don't agree with not pressuring lurking/inactive players with the threat of a first-day lynch. Truly non-participating players can be excluded from analysis due to modkilling, and it stands to reason that more posting of positions will increase the sample size of data.
Makes sense. You don't want to pressure vote on lurkers. I don't know why, but it's you're opinion. If you want the lurkers to stay lurking, that's all well and good, but it doesn't contribute anything to a town atmosphere. Yet, with you're very first vote of the game, you contradict yourself and vote on someone who has a grand total of one post, and even at that, it's one line. I would still classify that as lurking, and you vote for him.
And beyond that, you even SAY that you are going to want to hear him defend himself, and he has more than enough time to defend himself. That tells me you are pretty non-committal in ACTUALLY voting to lynch him. Tell me this also - would you bet on you're life that he is mafia?
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I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4:7 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted.
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A good Detective can make an excellent case on the basis of his target's public posting record, knowing that that player is guilty, but not having to reveal himself as a Detective. A Detective should never have to pre-emptively claim his role just so that his information can be put to use.
As for your second accusation, you didn't parse my argument properly. Read my second quote again. It was in response to someone who didn't want to pressure an inactive player, and I said that I didn't agree with him. I understand that it's a double negative, especially if you're (as I suspect) just looking through my filter, but you can trust me to say what I mean.
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On January 26 2012 12:18 FakePromise wrote: I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4:7 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted.
Actually, it's not a random lynching. You laid out that there was a 30% chance of getting a Mafia. Explain why you decided to endorse it. Trying to backtrack now is a terrible idea. Right now, you dug yourself a hole with your reasoning behind the random lynch, and now you are trying to Counter Attack Sacred for catching wind of it.
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On January 26 2012 12:21 MidnightGladius wrote: A good Detective can make an excellent case on the basis of his target's public posting record, knowing that that player is guilty, but not having to reveal himself as a Detective. A Detective should never have to pre-emptively claim his role just so that his information can be put to use.
As for your second accusation, you didn't parse my argument properly. Read my second quote again. It was in response to someone who didn't want to pressure an inactive player, and I said that I didn't agree with him. I understand that it's a double negative, especially if you're (as I suspect) just looking through my filter, but you can trust me to say what I mean.
EBWOP: I see that I've been ninja'd again. This and the quoted posts are responses to Bromancipate.
While I'm here, I'd like to ask you about your views on the other players. At this point, your somewhat mishandled aggression towards me is starting to make me suspicious of your own motives.
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Well guys thanks for the interesting read tonight, I will be contemplating what has been discussed so far. I won't be able to post again until about 4-5pm CST (-6:00) so please don't take my inactivity until then as a sign of something, best of luck to everyone posting while I will be away.
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On January 26 2012 12:21 Jitsu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 12:18 FakePromise wrote: I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4:7 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted. Actually, it's not a random lynching. You laid out that there was a 30% chance of getting a Mafia. Explain why you decided to endorse it. Trying to backtrack now is a terrible idea. Right now, you dug yourself a hole with your reasoning behind the random lynch, and now you are trying to Counter Attack Sacred for catching wind of it.
This was me. Sorry Qatol/Dreamflower.
On January 26 2012 12:25 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 12:21 MidnightGladius wrote: A good Detective can make an excellent case on the basis of his target's public posting record, knowing that that player is guilty, but not having to reveal himself as a Detective. A Detective should never have to pre-emptively claim his role just so that his information can be put to use.
As for your second accusation, you didn't parse my argument properly. Read my second quote again. It was in response to someone who didn't want to pressure an inactive player, and I said that I didn't agree with him. I understand that it's a double negative, especially if you're (as I suspect) just looking through my filter, but you can trust me to say what I mean. EBWOP: I see that I've been ninja'd again. This and the quoted posts are responses to Bromancipate. While I'm here, I'd like to ask you about your views on the other players. At this point, your somewhat mishandled aggression towards me is starting to make me suspicious of your own motives.
So, because I've shown aggression towards you're posting, that makes you suspicious of my motives? How is it mishandled? I don't see it as mishandled at all - infact, what you are doing is generally referred to as "Oh My God U Suck," where you get upset about a player putting aggression on you and try to throw suspicion back on them.
I just read you're post again. It's pretty easy to read. It doesn't matter if it's in reference to another post, you said [and I will quote it again, for clarity]:
On January 25 2012 15:24 MidnightGladius wrote: With regards to your lynch proposal, I don't agree with not pressuring lurking/inactive players with the threat of a first-day lynch. Truly non-participating players can be excluded from analysis due to modkilling, and it stands to reason that more posting of positions will increase the sample size of data..
You said, "I do not agree with pressuring lurking/inactive players with the thread of a first-day lynch." You're doing it right now. You voted a person with, at the time, one post, and expected him to come in and defend himself. That is the definition of pressure voting. Than you say "it stands to reason that more posting of positions will increase the sample size of data." I agree, you want have people to post so that we can get a better understand of their motives. So you do the only logical thing, for which you are preaching in this post as well as others...and use you're vote on a guy that has a whopping sample size of one post.
Either you like to contradict yourself, or you are hiding something.
Also, you never answered my second question.
But, in light of clarity, you ask my position on other players, presumably to get me to stop looking at you. The latter won't happen, but the former will.
I think Sacred is on to something. There is definite cohesive-ness going on between FakePromise and [zarepath?]. Not sure what it is yet, as FakePromise has JUST come back, but they are two definite players to continue to spy on. FakePromise jumped on that "random lynch" thing way too fast.
Also, as said prior, zelblade doesn't look too shiny. I don't like how he is constantly trying to apologize, when there is nothing to really apologize for at the moment. In my experience, people who are too flaky to piss anyone off is trying to stay neutral for a reason.
Everyone else is still gray, as there is only two pages of posts thus far, and still 24 hours left in the day. That being said, you make me curious.
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Christ in buckets.
I don't agree with not pressuring lurking/inactive players with the threat of a first-day lynch.
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Also, to clarify: Your second question was would I bet on my life that FakePromise is mafia?
No, I would not. I value my life pretty highly. However, I agree with Simberto that actually putting a vote on him is more likely to prompt him to post, as opposed to just voicing vaguely threatening opinions. Do I think that voting for him adds value to our discussion? Certainly! Do I think that his one strange act guarantees his being mafia? Certainly not!
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On January 26 2012 12:53 MidnightGladius wrote:Christ in buckets. Show nested quote +I don't agree with not pressuring lurking/inactive players with the threat of a first-day lynch.
Ahhh, I missed the Not and read it wrong. It's worded extremely awkwardly. That also will clear up the second question I have for you.
The question was based around the fact that I missed the Not, and you already answered my follow up question of "Now that he has posted, has you're opinion changed of him."
He came back for a quick second, and than disappeared into the night again. He has yet to return, again. -.-
I agree that voting him does add to the discussion, however, I don't necessarily agree that not posting aggressively at him is another way of doing it. I like the second way, and while pressure voting certainly has it's benefits, I think going after people in an aggressive stance is helpful as well.
RE: Fake
I don't like the OMGUS thing. It's just another thing to the fire. FakePromise, respond to my post, please.
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What am I suppose to respond to?
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On January 26 2012 13:21 FakePromise wrote: What am I suppose to respond to?
this
On January 25 2012 13:50 FakePromise wrote:Poor Qatol, had such potential 4/13 = 30.7% chance of killing mafia so random lynch seems good for me
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Reposting on Hydra Account -
Actually, it's not a random lynching. You laid out that there was a 30% chance of getting a Mafia. Explain why you decided to endorse it. Trying to backtrack now is a terrible idea. Right now, you dug yourself a hole with your reasoning behind the random lynch, and now you are trying to Counter Attack Sacred for catching wind of it.
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I've refraining from posting to let others have a chance to speak up and there's one thing I noticed.
12 out of 13 people have posted (TheFearedBeing has not). So 3 or 4 mafia have posted something. Yet I still see many people lurking and getting by without posting anything substantial. I invite you to take a quick glance at the player filters and see this for yourselves.
Now I'm not going to point people out right now because I don't want to give mafia a chance to change the subject off the "FakePromise's 30%" - lynch, but I want everyone to be wary and NOT ASSUME the lurker problem is over.
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EBWOP: I've refrained from posting ....
I'll be posting again in roughly 13~14 hours from now when I get out of class.
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On January 26 2012 08:01 DoYouHas wrote:I believe zelblade is our best lynch option. Just look at what he did when thrust into the spotlight. Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 15:48 zelblade wrote:On January 25 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote:On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
Ok this post is really weird. 1) OP clearly states Mafia KP. On January 24 2012 08:35 dreamflower wrote: Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining.
Of course this is a newbie game so y'know, people make mistakes. 2) This post doesn't actually give us anything new or that helpful. We can do the math and figure how many mislynches we have till Lylo, which isn't information you typically use day 1. I mean, unless you push for no lynch, how's that info help? 3) This is the part that got me from giving benefit of the doubt to feeling weird: On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
What the heck? Who does this? Who addresses town? A town post would have started at "we need to post more ...". #FOS zelblade 1) Opps my bad, didnt see that part. 2) I was simply trying to generate some discussion as it would seem that no one was talking much, and trying to emphasise that we need to use our lynches carefully. 3) I am sorry if that came off at scummy, and what i simply meant by that part was that town needs to post more. Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 00:14 zelblade wrote:On January 25 2012 14:19 zelblade wrote:As for what to do with our day 1 lynch, i suggest that we lynch a lurker unless a better canditate comes up. Remember that we still have alot of time left before the deadline, so we should utilize this time well to discuss and find a better lynch candidate than lynching by reverse-alphabetical order. If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating). Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 00:37 zelblade wrote:On January 26 2012 00:29 Simberto wrote: EBWOP
And that (no random lynching) includes zarepath who has also already stated that he does not believe in random lynching anymore. So why did you bring him up again? I was trying to explain the contradiction u pointed out earlier. He has been apologizing and clarifying posts (which were already pretty clear) ever since spl0osh criticized his second post. Instead of using the spotlight to voice his own suspicions or convince us of his innocence, he has tried to move out of the spotlight as quickly and quietly as possible, while avoiding offending anyone. While his initial posts weren't particularly scummy, his responses have been nothing but suspicious. ## Vote: zelblade
The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that.
As for using the spotlight to voice my suspisions, at that time i didnt really have any reads on any particular person in the game (remember that it was at the start of day 1 and there was hardly any discussion yet besides about random lynching) besides perhaps fakepromise, who felt scummy for jumping onto the random lynch without any clear reasoning. However, quite a few players have already called him out for it, and i didnt feel that it was neccesary to add on to it, and wanted to wait for his response towards their accusiations.
At this point, fakepromise seems to be the most suspisious to me, not only for him advocating the random lynch but also for his responses to the pressure, and also how he has suddenly gone mia, without giving a proper response as to why he supported the random lynch, and his random accusation of sacredsystem eagerly wanting him to die doesnt really help.
I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted.
Also @ fakepromise i am not really sure what you mean by this part.... I really dont understand the bolded part, what did u mean by that? He certainly isnt accusing you because you happened to be reading after i posted.... as that doesnt make sense.
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One other thing is that although there is a voting thread, i believe that we should still post our votes here on the main thread so that we will be notified whenever someone votes.
As for my own vote, i am still waiting for fakepromise's proper response. If it doesnt come, my vote will probably go to him.
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Ok, this is seriously retarded.
I am still of the opinion that zelblade looks scummiest of the people who are participating. Reasons for that are what i posted in my last post, the apologeticness pointed out by DoYouHas, and the being apologetic for being apologetic and pointing himself as a noob here:
The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that.
I have others on the list of people who are actually writing which i find look a bit weird, too. And i would love to go into that and concentrate on those. However, we really can't at the moment, not with the amount of hardlurking going on. For example, we simply can't let FakePromise get away with what he is doing at the moment. He has not posted a single point of interest yet, mostly just half-assed numbers like this gems:
I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted.
This seriously does not have any information at it, at all. Except maybe that it was actually zarepath who posted the first randomlynch proposal, so maybe this is an underhand and very stupid try to avoid attention and deflect it to the most conspicious person around, i don't know.
Same goes for CosmosXAM who says nothing, except for apologies for being inactive and very, very safe statements that noone could find a problem with. Or Balt11t, who also has not yet posted anything with content except safe accusations against FakePromise and gets into absolutely inconsequential banter with SacredSystem. Or Sacredsystem, who does the same, and answers for other people, too.
I have not even mentioned FearedBeing, because the best thing we can hope for at the moment is for him to be modkilled. I would really love to concentrate on suspicous people instead of inactive ones, but with that amount of inactives, we really can't, because that would show to mafia that the only thing they need to do to be safe is not post. So if any of those inactives are town, PLEASE, PLEASE, post. And don't only post to post, post interesting things. Things that make your stance clear, analysis, new things. Not just repetition of what someone else said or inconsequential stuff like links to the voting thread. Things that force you to take a stance, things that you can be called out on later. This gives us more information to rule you out as mafia.
One other thing is that although there is a voting thread, i believe that we should still post our votes here on the main thread so that we will be notified whenever someone votes.
As for my own vote, i am still waiting for fakepromise's proper response. If it doesnt come, my vote will probably go to him.
With this i agree. Even though it is another nonconsequential thing you can't see anything out of, it is at least useful. Of course the votes that get counted are the ones in the voting thread, but by posting your votes in both places you are making this thread easier to follow, and if you hide your votes, you are conspicious.
##vote FakePromise
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I do NOT think that FakePromise is a mafia.
Let's look at his (quite limited) post history:
On January 25 2012 13:50 FakePromise wrote:Poor Qatol, had such potential 4/13 = 30.7% chance of killing mafia so random lynch seems good for me
If he's mafia, he runs these numbers through his head and goes, "Hey, that's great for us!" OR, he notes that I picked zelblade, and thinks to himself, "Hey, he's not a mafia, that's great for us!" So his first response is to immediately endorse the lynching of a townie...
...by suggesting that the lynching odds are good? That would be the worst, most obvious mafia move possible. And that's ALL he says. Doesn't respond at all to the point of my failed plan, which was to get information based on who likes it and who doesn't, and then use the flip to confirm one way or the other. All he likes is the percentage. AWFUL mafia play.
However, saying the same thing as a townie is just as bad of a play, if not worse. Either way, let's establish that he's being careless. Let's continue.
On January 26 2012 12:18 FakePromise wrote: I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4:7 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted.
How does he defend his 30% endorsement? "I guess I was wrong." Then he follows that up with a complaint that people are trying to random lynch him. Also: "Now that I think of it..." as if he was just now running the numbers, which seems like an outright lie and an obvious escape route. The last part of his defense -- that he wonders why Sacred is after him because of some random timing on what he was reading(?) -- doesn't make any sense at all. It's the most scatterbrained defense imaginable.
Now think about this if he's mafia. He makes a horrible, obvious first post right at the beginning of the game. There are three other mafia players who are going to PM him and say "look, that was the scummiest thing I've ever seen. You need to back off of that real carefully." They may even tell him what to say. They're sure as heck not going to let him post excuses like "just because I happened to be reading zelblade's post" or "now that I think about it..." (Disclaimer: the other mafia may be just as dense, but that's not a good assumption to make. Or Fake just read all the PMs and the thread at once, bugged out, and made an awful response.) If he IS mafia, this is the worst possible way to defend yourself of the fact -- lashing out, completely switching your stance, no explanation of your thought process, and something that doesn't even make sense at all.
Either way, it's careless. But if he were mafia, I don't think he'd have a careless retraction like this, one that comes so late in the thread. It would be far earlier, with all the other mafia PMing him saying "what's going on? get over here and defend yourself, they're getting real restless and I sure as heck ain't going to defend your post." I think this post would be much better crafted defense, and would probably point out someone more suspicious than him to try to throw off the scent.
Now his third and latest post:
On January 26 2012 13:21 FakePromise wrote: What am I suppose to respond to?
Really? As a mafia, I suppose this is a potential defense: seeming so confident in your innocence that nobody should have any accusations against you worth responding to. I don't see any guilt in that post.
But really? Everyone is all for lynching you based on a single offhand belief that you made at the beginning with no back-up or reasoning. You don't know what you're supposed to respond to? Is that even possible?
He doesn't see a need to defend himself anymore, even after his awful, scattered defense in his second post. This belies an utterly clueless view of the game.
Additionally, who here has rushed to defend him (other than myself at this point)? Nobody. There are a couple of moves that could be seen as misdirections -- people voting for zelblade and Cosmon, but those votes made some basic sense. He's all alone in his defense because nobody else is on his team. (Knowingly, anyway.) He is alone in a corner, consistently clueless, and apparently sees no need to defend himself.
What I'm saying is that it seems more likely to me that he is just a really awful townie.
As an alternative, I suggest voting for Cosmon:
On January 26 2012 06:39 CosmosXAM wrote: sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion First post is an apology
On January 26 2012 07:04 CosmosXAM wrote: If I had to say I would probably go with fakepromise because of how he was so quick to agree. Also Chocolate seems mildly suspicious because of his quick jump to voting straight for me based on little information Bandwagons on the popular vote based on little information, and then also throws suspicion on Chocolate because Chocolate's voting for Cosmos on little information(?)
On January 26 2012 09:04 CosmosXAM wrote:I find it a bit odd your jump from Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 14:55 SacredSystem wrote: However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
to straight up voting for him, I mean sure he now has two votes going for him but you said that you wanted to wait for more information and based on him only posting once and your points about him just being copy&paste what other people had said earlier and not offering any new information or opinions I find your vote to be very bandwagon-ey. And then he accuses SacredSystem of bandwagoning on Fake (even though that's exactly was Cosmos did).
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EBWOP: As soon as Cosmos realized he was in crosshairs, he bandwagonned on the easy target and tried to throw suspicion on people who accused him, and had very contradicting logic the whole time.
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I am fine with Cosmos too. None of them have posted enough that you can make a good case against them. Honestly, i don't really expect much mafia to be among the hard lurkers, probably at most one or two. And it is not like we are actually hunting mafia, you can't really do that when you have 4 people who don't post anything, and others who post barely more.
Honestly, the vibe i got of FakePromise is that of an uninterested and incompetent townie, too. But his absolute refusal to respond swings that towards scummy or stupid. True, stupid is more probable, but we can not really accept stupidity and inactivity as a defense, that makes the game far to easy for mafia. Also, it is very hard to differantiate a very stupid townie from a very stupid mafia, especially when they don't really post anything.
Also, zarepath, note that most of your argument is WIFOM, and that you flipflop between "mafia would tell him to act, but not help him to be safer", and "noone helps him", which are obviously contradictionary. Even further, you invalidate that whole argument by helping him with this post.
What we have at the moment is a systemic problem, and that is that we have 4 people who barely post at all, and even more who post only very small amounts. If i were to hunt for mafia, i would probably look among the "barely more" people, who post just enough to not be branded as lurkers, but not enough to hang themselves open in the spotlight, like Chocolate or balt11t. However, before we can do any real mafia hunting, that systemic problem needs to be addressed. Because we can't just ignore people if they don't post enough. Zelblade is still very suspicious, too.
The problem i have here is that there is absolutely no rational reason to be a hard lurker. Even if are not active all the time, at least contribute when you are active. Just you reading this topic does not help us at all. If you are pro-town, you need to post. Sadly, this means that everyone who does not post a lot is not acting pro-town. If you are not posting, you are hurting us, on the same level as mafia does. Not only do you make us waste lynches on people we have no information on, you also make us spend the whole day just talking about inactivity instead of mafia. We can't just ignore the lurkers because that would turn the game into easymode for the mafia, but we also can't only focus on them because it is a big waste of time.
For example, Fakepromise now has 3 votes on him, but he is not even talking, at all. So all we know is that he is inactive. He could be an inactive townie, or inactive mafia. Noone knows, because he does not talk. Both mafia and town SHOULD defend themselves in that situation.
If it continues like this, i will probably just vote on the lurker with the most votes on him when i go to sleep. Sadly the end of the day is in the middle of the night for me, so i can't be around then. To not waste all of this time talking only about inactivity (which is the best thing to happen for mafia), i will think about my mafia reads on the active people, and post that in a second post very soon after this one.
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Attack arguments, not people please. Don't call other people stupid.
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Should have used "bad" instead, or something less personal.
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"Bad" is personal too....
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Found some time before my day starts to read the newer posts.
Since Simberto seems like the most pro town here, I want to ask for his/her opinion.
I think I have a substantial case (better than the FakePromise case), but it is against someone who is slightly above that "barely more" level.
Would it be good for us to go for this person or is it better for us to really pressure the harder lurkers?
Hopefully will find sometime during the day to post, but if not I'll be there before the deadline for sure.
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Ok, i noticed some interesting things here. Firstly, FakePromise does the best he can to dig his own grave. But he is not doing it alone. Interestingly enough, even before anything really started, balt11t spent most of his time attacking FakePromise over the 30% thing. Now, we can only know the significance of this when FakePromise flips green, but sadly he continues to dig his grave and i fear that he will turn up as a less abled townie in the end. If this does happen, i think balt11t is a prime suspect.
Zelblade looks absurdly scummy at this point, really even so much that i might even favor him over lynching a lurker. He posted a lot in the beginning, his posts made him look scummy, and now he does nothing but post apologetic things and attacks onto the easy target FakePromise. Take a look at this gem:
The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that.
He apologizes for being apologetic. Really? AND he paints himself as a noob. Why should a towny do that? As town, i want people to trust me, and carefully consider what i say, not take me for a noob who has nothing important to say. However, "being a noob" is a wonderful excuse for inconsistencies that might result from mafia trying to act as town. The rest of his only post today was used to specifically attack FakePromise, who is already in pretty deep problems anyways.
Chocolate looks strange. Not only is he active on TL, but not contributing here at all, almost all of his posts consist of zero content. He is saying that he tries to make Lurkers post, while he pretty much lurks very hard himself. Other then that, he did not post anything except an attack on the random lynching plan.
I would really like some kind of statement from those 3 guys.
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Found some time before my day starts to read the newer posts.
Since Simberto seems like the most pro town here, I want to ask for his/her opinion.
I think I have a substantial case (better than the FakePromise case), but it is against someone who is slightly above that "barely more" level.
Would it be good for us to go for this person or is it better for us to really pressure the harder lurkers?
Hopefully will find sometime during the day to post, but if not I'll be there before the deadline for sure.
Hm, that is an interesting question. In any case you should post your case before the night ends to avoid a mafia hit killing information, that is for sure (We can talk during the night and mafia hits hit in the morning if i am not totally mistaken).
However, if you have a really good case, i think that going after that is better than a random/policy lynch.
But you need to be careful that you don't post it too late. Better posting it during the night than in the last few hours of the day and confuse people into a nolynch. I am very convinced that we should lynch today, and if you post it at a time when the europeans can no longer react to it, i don't think you will get a majority lynch on a new person going, especially considering the amount of lurking/inactivity going on.
Also, i would suggest asking a coach about that, they might have something to consider that i don't. But if you can't contact one and post your case before european midnight, i think you should better post it earlier then wasting too much time.
But until we see that case and it is good, lurkers are still the prime targets.
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Since I have to go to sleep soon (in about half and hour) and fakepromise still hasnt posted any sort of defence yet, I will be voting for him for now. Will wake up to check the thread in probably about 7-8 hours or so when i wake up, though i probably can only skim through the thread as i have to rush to school than, but definately can change my vote if need be.
##vote FakePromise
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On January 26 2012 22:34 Simberto wrote: Also, zarepath, note that most of your argument is WIFOM, and that you flipflop between "mafia would tell him to act, but not help him to be safer", and "noone helps him", which are obviously contradictionary. Even further, you invalidate that whole argument by helping him with this post.
I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning).
And that's not a contradiction or flipflop. Mafia would tell him to defend himself because they couldn't be seen defending such an awful argument; but they'd help him defend himself a little bit, at least, which obviously didn't happen.
You can count my post as an invalidation of that reasoning, but Fake's safety isn't my prime concern here; mis-lynching is, and with three votes tallied against him, I had to step in before the votes got out of control and we mis-lynched (according to my suspicions). I think that Cosmos is the stronger candidate.
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Also, sorry Fake for attacking you personally. Let me rephrase that I didn't think your arguments were very good, or existent.
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I would really prefer if people started using their votes. We are 13 people, so we need 7 votes for a lynch. I think that both Cosmos and FakePromise are good lurker votes, so as long as you are able to change your vote lateron i would suggest that you post now whom you think we should lynch, and when we got a few more votes we can see what we are going to do with those and upon whom we can get a majority. Also i am still hoping for slooshs case to be a piece of genius, but until he posts it there is no point in discussing it further. In any case, holding back your votes is not good, since it will only lead to a rushed try to get some sort of coherence in the last few hours, which can only benefit mafia through easy bandwagons or a nolynch.
I firmly believe that we should lynch today, so in my eyes the only question is whom. So, vote, and we can discuss it. We should also try to come to a conclusion before all europeans are asleep.
Also:
I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning).
WIFOM stands for "Wine in front of me", which is apparently a reference to some movie. It is used to describe the sort of circular reasoning "Ok, mafia should do this, but they know we know they should do this, so they should do the opposite, but then they know we know they know we know, so they should do the first thing" etc...., which basically does not lead to a conclusion and only obfuscates things.
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So, in line with that, i will change my vote from FakePromise to Cosmos temporarily. I think both are good targets, but Cosmos is the better one. In the end i will vote for anyone on my list of good lynches if we can get a majority for them.
##unvote FakePromise ##vote CosmoxXAM
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##Vote CosmosXAM
I looked up WIFOM, and it refers to the Princess Bride scene where the genius guy lists off assumptions and says "Then you can assume that the wine is in front of me." It was a confusion tactic that didn't end up working.
I suppose my reasoning was a little circular, but it's still hard for me to imagine Fake as a mafia. He does need to contribute more either way, though.
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It's 3-3-1 with 6 votes left (essentially 5, considering Fear's inactivity), and we need 7 votes on one person to avoid a no-lynch. Just fyi.
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That's why i wanted people to start voting, and preferably be available to change their votes to get something done if necessary.
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I'm more comfortable voting for FakePromise at this point. I think he's purposefully avoiding the thread, especially since he came back and than took off again? Not sure what's going on with him, but his activity/posts are not pro-town, at all.
I am heading off to class right now, and I should be back by the time the lynch occurs. If new circumstance arise by that time, I should have sufficient time to respond.
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Please note, the voting rules in the OP have been slightly modified from the original to read, "Majority = number of total voters/2 (rounded down) + 1," rather than "Majority = number of players remaining in the game/2) (rounded down) + 1." We hosts decided it was better to calculate the final vote based on the number of players who are voting rather than the total number of players. The change shouldn't matter if all players vote, but it punishes active players less if someone doesn't vote. Qatol believed, and I agreed, that it is unfair to punish the people actively participating in this game because someone is inactive, and it is better to have active players deciding what happens in the game rather than risking inactives causing no-lynches or otherwise ruining the vote.
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On January 27 2012 04:50 dreamflower wrote: Please note, the voting rules in the OP have been slightly modified from the original to read, "Majority = number of total voters/2 (rounded down) + 1," rather than "Majority = number of players remaining in the game/2) (rounded down) + 1." We hosts decided it was better to calculate the final vote based on the number of players who are voting rather than the total number of players. The change shouldn't matter if all players vote, but it punishes active players less if someone doesn't vote. Qatol believed, and I agreed, that it is unfair to punish the people actively participating in this game because someone is inactive, and it is better to have active players deciding what happens in the game rather than risking inactives causing no-lynches or otherwise ruining the vote.
Well, that changes things greatly O_O. This can potentially open a huge can of worms, but first I'd like to ask:
How is this reconciled with the requirement, as stated in the "Activity" section of the rules, that all players must vote while alive, or be modkilled?
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Ok. Soon I will upload my super post when I finish my last lecture of the day. (Then I have an appointment so there will be like a ~2hr gap where I cannot discuss). Hopefully this will be in time for the European players.
Until then I really want to see Chocolate and balt11t post. I don't want them to get away lurking until something big happens and they can pretend to contribute.
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I think people who don't vote get modkilled but the majority gets adjusted for the active votes.
Say half the group does not vote and get modkilled. The remaining group can still decide to lynch as there is a lower, attainable majority lynch number.
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Like I said, MidnightGladius, the change won't affect anything if all players vote, which is what we are requiring in the Activity section of the rules. However, if any player doesn't vote, they will still be modkilled and, if possible, replaced. This change just ensures that their lack of voting will not affect the current lynch like it otherwise would have under the previous vote-calculating formula.
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I am willing to set aside my suspicion of zelblade for today in order to make my vote more relevant. As for the CosmosXAM vs FakePromise lynching, I find myself at a loss. Let me explain.
CosmosXAM seems more scummy to me than FakePromise for a few reasons.
On January 26 2012 06:39 CosmosXAM wrote: I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast. Not only is this a weak first post that focuses on a settled issue, his second sentence says that even if we find scummy things in his posts, it is our fault for pressuring him into it. He shortly follows this with 3 questionable statements in his second post.
On January 26 2012 07:04 CosmosXAM wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:On January 26 2012 06:39 CosmosXAM wrote: I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast. Right, we've moved on past random lynching. Who do you think is suspicious? If I had to say I would probably go with fakepromise because of how he was so quick to agree. Also Chocolate seems mildly suspicious because of his quick jump to voting straight for me based on little information, but I havent found enough conclusive evidence to make a post strongly against someone. This is just my first game and I can only be active for a few hours in the day so hopefully people dont misconstrue that information. First, he goes after FakePromise. This is reasonable, possibly bandwagoning, and easy. I expect someone who has been lurking for a full day could find something suspicious to mention that hasn't been repeated so often. Second, he overreacts to Chocolate's placing a vote on him and lashes back purely based on that. Third, he points us to this being his first game and how rarely he will be able to post. So not only should we not expect many posts from him, but when they come we shouldn't expect them to have quality. I don't really take issue with his third post and 4-5 have no content so I'll move to FakePromise.
I don't have anything new to say on the things FakePromise has done wrong. I simply agree that his actions make for a very poor defense and he definitely is not pro-town so far. I do not agree with zarepath's defense of FakePromise. To me, it is equally likely for the explanations of 'no mafia would behave in the way FakePromise has / no mafia team would allow FakePromise to behave in the way he has' and 'FakePromise has played this first round very poorly' to be true. It is not out of the question. Especially since most of us are new players.
In spite of CosmosXAM being the scummier candidate, I believe we gain more information for day 2 if we lynch FakePromise. Not only can we start to look at people who seem to have jumped on the bandwagon but we would also gain some insight into zarepath's motivations.
I am torn between the scummier candidate and having more information. At the moment I am leaning towards CosmosXAM. In my real life mafia experience bumbling defenses like FakePromise's tend to be town who don't know how to act under pressure. I'm trusting that experience for now.
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On January 27 2012 05:57 slOosh wrote: Until then I really want to see Chocolate and balt11t post. I don't want them to get away lurking until something big happens and they can pretend to contribute. My apologies. I am reading the thread, however, my school blocks login pages, so I am unable to actually sign in in order to post until I get home.
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On January 27 2012 05:58 slOosh wrote: I think people who don't vote get modkilled but the majority gets adjusted for the active votes.
Say half the group does not vote and get modkilled. The remaining group can still decide to lynch as there is a lower, attainable majority lynch number. This is basically the worst case scenario, but it makes the point. We don't want inactives forcing no lynches simply because they're inactive. If over half the players don't vote, it would force a no lynch under the old rule even if the voting players are unanimous. We don't like this result, so the rules were slightly changed to at least mitigate the effect of inactives as much as possible. And if everyone votes like they're supposed to, this change would have absolutely no effect on the game at all.
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A no-lynch in my opinion will be better then killing a townsperson even if it does accomplesh little we do lose less townspeople, now I know I am a target and seem to bandwagon but I have yet to cast a vote and would really like to vote out a mafia or a person who seems most likely to be mafia. On the note of who I believe as mafia I still am a little nervous about Fakepromise's lack of posts and reappearance then disappearance. And zarepath because all I have seen him do is agree with people and constantly changes his viewpoints. Chocolate was a heat of the moment suspision based on him pressuring me and I don't really think that he is mafia anymore. So with my vote being able to be cahnged in the event of new information I would like to vote now for zarepath based on his "yes man" attitude toward everything and how he never has a solid opinion. ##Vote: zarepath
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On January 26 2012 23:35 Simberto wrote: Ok, i noticed some interesting things here. Firstly, FakePromise does the best he can to dig his own grave. But he is not doing it alone. Interestingly enough, even before anything really started, balt11t spent most of his time attacking FakePromise over the 30% thing. Now, we can only know the significance of this when FakePromise flips green, but sadly he continues to dig his grave and i fear that he will turn up as a less abled townie in the end. If this does happen, i think balt11t is a prime suspect.
To put it quite frankly, I do not understand how I look any more suspicious then you do at this point. Why would I not attack someone who claims that only a 30% chance of killing a scummy is worth the risk. To claim that those are even moderately good odds is beyond a little bit of a stretch, and to put them into application would essentially be a waste of life.
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On January 27 2012 06:23 CosmosXAM wrote: A no-lynch in my opinion will be better then killing a townsperson even if it does accomplesh little we do lose less townspeople, now I know I am a target and seem to bandwagon but I have yet to cast a vote and would really like to vote out a mafia or a person who seems most likely to be mafia. On the note of who I believe as mafia I still am a little nervous about Fakepromise's lack of posts and reappearance then disappearance. And zarepath because all I have seen him do is agree with people and constantly changes his viewpoints. Chocolate was a heat of the moment suspision based on him pressuring me and I don't really think that he is mafia anymore. So with my vote being able to be cahnged in the event of new information I would like to vote now for zarepath based on his "yes man" attitude toward everything and how he never has a solid opinion. ##Vote: zarepath
A no-lynch does not help us. Not only do we give up the chance of you/FakePromise turning out to be mafia, but it also eliminates the information that would be generated by people arguing for/against certain candidates. If we lynch no one, then it's very likely that we'll just be having this discussion again on Day 2.
I would have predicted an innocent in your position to pick one target and hit hard, not present us with half-formed accusations against multiple players. As none of your arguments are particularly precise, detailed, or convincing, your voting for zarepath now feels even more out of place.
FakePromise's blunder remains more convincing to me, but honestly, at this point you're digging yourself a deeper hole in my eyes. If you don't make a more solid defense before the Day ends, I'm going to strongly favor your lynch tomorrow.
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On January 27 2012 06:35 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 06:23 CosmosXAM wrote: A no-lynch in my opinion will be better then killing a townsperson even if it does accomplesh little we do lose less townspeople, now I know I am a target and seem to bandwagon but I have yet to cast a vote and would really like to vote out a mafia or a person who seems most likely to be mafia. On the note of who I believe as mafia I still am a little nervous about Fakepromise's lack of posts and reappearance then disappearance. And zarepath because all I have seen him do is agree with people and constantly changes his viewpoints. Chocolate was a heat of the moment suspision based on him pressuring me and I don't really think that he is mafia anymore. So with my vote being able to be cahnged in the event of new information I would like to vote now for zarepath based on his "yes man" attitude toward everything and how he never has a solid opinion. ##Vote: zarepath A no-lynch does not help us. Not only do we give up the chance of you/FakePromise turning out to be mafia, but it also eliminates the information that would be generated by people arguing for/against certain candidates. If we lynch no one, then it's very likely that we'll just be having this discussion again on Day 2. I would have predicted an innocent in your position to pick one target and hit hard, not present us with half-formed accusations against multiple players. As none of your arguments are particularly precise, detailed, or convincing, your voting for zarepath now feels even more out of place. FakePromise's blunder remains more convincing to me, but honestly, at this point you're digging yourself a deeper hole in my eyes. If you don't make a more solid defense before the Day ends, I'm going to strongly favor your lynch tomorrow.
I would not predict someone who has very little experience to simply stick with 1 person to target, I prefer looking at the big picture of things not just what is topical right now in my mind I have a 50/50 thought on who to vote for (the people I listed) so to get others opinions I voted for the one others seemed to have not considered instead of just adding another vote to a person making it easier for the mafia to lynch them if they happened to not be mafia. I did this fully knowing that I could remove my vote if new information came up about either of the two that I have in mind.
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On January 26 2012 23:35 Simberto wrote: Chocolate looks strange. Not only is he active on TL, but not contributing here at all, almost all of his posts consist of zero content. He is saying that he tries to make Lurkers post, while he pretty much lurks very hard himself. Other then that, he did not post anything except an attack on the random lynching plan.
I would really like some kind of statement from those 3 guys. Hi guys I'm back. I just got home from school so please excuse my poor schedule for one more day.
First, about activity on TL as opposed to that in mafia. When I was making posts last night there was nothing going on in the thread. When I got off SS was just defending himself and the last post was http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=305805¤tpage=8#145 I didn't see anything to add to SS's post because there is essentially nothing to add; it was a thoroughly confusing post but what I got from it was that he's voting for fakepromise because there is better evidence against him than others.
Now I haven't been lurking in that I haven't been reading the thread. I can only read for 15 minutes in the car on my phone in the morning and post from 4-9 P.M. Since the traffic will increase closer and closer to the deadline tonight you can expect to see more input.
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So many things have changed after a day. I think some people understand my position after reading people's posts. So ya, I'll leave it at that. I have my suspicions on who could be mafia but since I have to vote for someone, I'll vote for TheFearedBeing since I still want to see what happens and I don't want to take sides yet.
##TheFearedBeing
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Make sure you remove your vote on him if he continues to not post. Correct me (mods) if I'm wrong but he is set to be modkilled. Unless you are in favor of a no lynch.
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On January 27 2012 07:50 Chocolate wrote: Make sure you remove your vote on him if he continues to not post. Correct me (mods) if I'm wrong but he is set to be modkilled. Unless you are in favor of a no lynch. Currently TheFearedBeing is set to be modkilled. He has a little over 4 hours left to vote.
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Ok. Here we go. This will be a large post so PLEASE don't skim and post a quick response and clutter the thread. The worst thing we can have is clutter; the thread is the only means of town communication.
Now as we've seen, there are already many players who are suspect. - Zelblade's timidity and apologetic tone - FakePromise's 30% and general apathy - small time posters e.g balt11t, CosmosXAM and Chocolate etc.
HOWEVER, reading kitaman27's Newbie Mini Mafia left an impression on me. While we are so focused on catching lurker mafia, there can be outspoken, active and seemingly helpful mafia disguising as town that fly under the radar and whose influences are not well noted (Ciryandor in the game linked). We have a bunch of lurkers, but lets not devote all our attention and resources trying to pick off which is which.
While we should go after lurkers (p.s. I suggest if we have any vigis that we use those shots on them, Ace's vigi / cop guide) we should not ever assume that active players are town confirmed. This is the mindset with which I read over the thread.
I will now push forward the Zarepath Lynch.
##Vote Zarepath Zarepath's filter.
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Case I: + Show Spoiler +Zarepath opens the day's discussions with a random / no lynch proposal. We've discussed how it is a poorly thought out, Anti-Town plan. However, read between the lines with me (set 1 is italicized , set 2 is bolded, set 3 underlined) + Show Spoiler +On January 25 2012 13:28 zarepath wrote: So, the first question I think has to be this:
What do we want to accomplish on Day 1?
We either no-lynch or randomly lynch, as far as I can tell. We don't have much game history to draw upon as far as deciding who to cut early.
I see several possible outcomes:
Randomly lynch a mafia/red: This is clearly the best possible outcome. If we have worthwhile hunches to go on, it's possible we can lynch a mafia on the first Day. From what I've read it's unlikely, but still possible; it all depends on what kind of discussion we see today.
Randomly lynch a townie/blue: Bad. The only upside is that we can then use the information from that lynching to determine likely mafia. Who was most excited about randomly lynching that particular person? Who bandwagonned on? Who were the last few votes who made the lynch possible?
No-lynch: We don't get a mafia, or confirmation of who isn't mafia. Because there's no risk of lynching a townie/blue, this seems to be very safe.
But what I wonder is this: if we don't lynch anyone today, our information for Day 2 is limited, and we give the mafia a night to kill someone. We end up with 1 dead townie before we're willing to make deductions. Maybe it's riskier to not lynch someone on the first night, because we'd have less information to go on.
So what I'm suggesting is this: we lynch someone randomly. Say, by reverse-alphabetical order. There's no reason at all for us to suspect this person. But by deciding to lynch them, we'll either see a lot of defense (ie, they're mafia), or a lot of people agreeing with killing that person (ie, those people are mafia.) Once that person flips blue or red, we'll know who was who.
TLDR; I suggest that we randomly lynch zelblade, or seriously discuss it, and see what happens from there. Set 1 (italicized) This isn't a hard slip up but it isn't quite null tell either. The question is good. What do we want to accomplish. He doesn't answer his own question though. He offers a plan and sweeps the question under the rug. Don't think he is a mafia, but I start to watch out for him. Set 2 (bolded) Look at his mentions of alignments (mafia, blue, town). Look past the plan itself and observe his word choice. Did you see what I saw? "Once that person flips blue or red". You KNOW it was NOT a typo since one paragraph above he uses the phrase "1 dead townie" and that he considers the two factions mafia and townie/blue. I believe he has blue hunting on his mind and it leaked out. I am definitely suspicious and decide a full blown analysis is worth investing into. Set 3 (underlined) This is a recurring theme that doesn't make sense. Set 3 will continue well into his other posts. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Case 2: + Show Spoiler +Set 1 bolded set 2 italics + Show Spoiler +On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 14:19 zelblade wrote: I disagree with zarepath's plan to "randomly" lynch me. Of course i am being a litte biased here, but how does randomly lynching me provide any sort of information? How does me/others defending myself = mafia? Any player, regardless of aglinment, is going to defend themselves either way, as getting lynched in either case is bad for their team, and chances to win.
Thus, i believe that lynching me or anyone else "randomly" is a horrible idea.
As for what to do with our day 1 lynch, i suggest that we lynch a lurker unless a better canditate comes up. Remember that we still have alot of time left before the deadline, so we should utilize this time well to discuss and find a better lynch candidate than lynching by reverse-alphabetical order. The point is that upon flip, we have much more to go on. Anyone irrationally defending you now, if it turns out you're mafia, has a solid chance of also being mafia. So no, not anyone defending you is necessarily mafia, and not necessarily anyone accusing you, but upon flip, we can figure out which side of that we can throw our suspicions.After reading others' responses to the idea: no, a RNG lynch would NOT be as useful to us, because we don't learn anything from it (as has been pointed out). By me randomly accusing someone, that person is forced to speak, and others are forced to defend if mafia/bandwagon if he's not. I argue that the process has already begun, based on the content of some of these posts. I think the strongest argument against doing this is that, because of the high mafia/town ratio, we only have 2 miss-lynches before it's LYLO, as zelblade pointed out. Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 15:24 DoYouHas wrote: There is no reason our first lynch should be random. We need to use the threat of lynching to put pressure on lurkers and suspicious people. This needs to start today. If we seriously consider a no lynch today all we do is encourage passive play. We should be creating opportunities to gain information and put pressure. The worst thing we can give the mafia is time. Lynching lurkers is not as great a strategy as it sounds. As others pointed out, mafia can just decide to post more, and then suddenly we're looking at lynching the less-active townies just because they don't talk enough. People who don't post at all get modkilled anyway, and seeing as how this is a newbie game, there are probably several lurkers who just don't know where to get started. I also agree that we should go after suspicious people. And I think we'll find out who they are by continuing to pressure zelblade. Set 1 (bolded) He is pushing for a kill for information. Information!! He doesn't care if its not a mafia, because he wants information! He uses the word "necessarily" twice, and after the flip the information can help town "[cast] our suspicions". He doesn't even value the information gained from the flip that highly. Set 2 (italics) Zelblade points out that town has 2 mislynches to Lylo (which I think is unhelpful information but that is beside the point). Zarepath uses this information. If you use someones info, it means that they are contributing. He ends the post saying that we should go after suspicious people, namely Zelblade. He uses information provided by someone who he thinks as suspicious. He calls for pressure on zelblade that he does not create himself . Please go read his filter right now. Here's a quick example. On January 25 2012 23:55 zarepath wrote: Okay, forget random lynching. I still think targeting someone randomly and seeing how they respond is better than policy-lynching the quiet people, but I think it's a good point that with 4 mafia, we can only miss-lynch twice.
But we need something to go on; some way of getting info. I have a few ideas but there are still a lot of people we haven't heard from. Quiet people need to speak up soon. Again, this quest for info (obtained by killing innocents or mafia he doesn't care) and self contradictions. What happened to the pressure Zelblade plan?
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Case 3 (last one bear with me guys): + Show Spoiler +It's really messy to show this without going through all the posts so I'll show you one example and you guys can read the filter yourselves. This has to do with the discrepancy in actions and words (like the zelblade pressure) + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 00:47 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 22:34 Simberto wrote: Also, zarepath, note that most of your argument is WIFOM, and that you flipflop between "mafia would tell him to act, but not help him to be safer", and "noone helps him", which are obviously contradictionary. Even further, you invalidate that whole argument by helping him with this post.
I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning). And that's not a contradiction or flipflop. Mafia would tell him to defend himself because they couldn't be seen defending such an awful argument; but they'd help him defend himself a little bit, at least, which obviously didn't happen. You can count my post as an invalidation of that reasoning, but Fake's safety isn't my prime concern here; mis-lynching is, and with three votes tallied against him, I had to step in before the votes got out of control and we mis-lynched (according to my suspicions). I think that Cosmos is the stronger candidate. Ok. So he says he is concerned with mislynch. As in, lynching people who are not mafia. He says that Fake is not mafia very adamantly On January 26 2012 22:00 zarepath wrote:"I do NOT think that FakePromise is a mafia."
yet look at his wording at the end. First, "I think". Not, Cosmos is the stronger candidate, but "I think". Where did that conviction go Zarepath? Furthermore, look at his voting pattern. After he posts his "FakePromise is an inexperienced town" at January 26 2012 22:00, he waits for Simberto to agree and vote first before he casts his own vote 6 minutes after at January 27 2012 03:05. 5 Hours and after someone else goes first.
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OK. Now LISTEN Don't post unless you have either - Analytical arguments against MY Case. I don't care if you want to lynch lurkers. Everyone does. But unless you either refute my case or build another as substantial as mine, which probably can't be done against few-post lurkers, please don't sidetrack or clutter discussion. - Or you are Zarepath defending yourself.
I partially DIDN'T want to post this because it would give mafia an easy out of lurking by just agreeing with me and blah blah blah. So to prevent that, please clear the way for Zarepath to speak, or speak on his behalf.
Again, I make my stance and vote clear: ##Vote Zarepath
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I have an appointment for about an hour, so someone PLEASE MAKE SURE NO CLUTTER. If you agree with me just Vote. Don't let him weasel out of this.
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Voting Count Update
CosmosXAM - 4 Chocolate Simberto zarepath DoYouHas
FakePromise - 5 MidnightGladius SacredSystem
Simberto zelblade Bromancipate balt11t
zelblade - 0
DoYouHas
zarepath - 2 CosmosXAM slOosh
TheFearedBeing - 1 FakePromise
Non-Voters - 1 TheFearedBeing
Voting ends at 22:00 EST (-05:00) today.
Currently, the number of votes needed to lynch is: 7 out of 12.
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Very interesting. After reading this, and rereading Zarepaths filter 2 times, I can definitively see what you mean. Noticeable is that Zarepaths only real contribution was to defend FakePromise, which makes both of them extremely linked in my opinion.
If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me.
I will probably stay up a bit later tonight (this is far too interesting), so if we for some reason absolutely can't get a lynch onto Zarepath, i will change my vote to FakePromise. Please, everyone who wants to lynch Zarepath react as fast as possible, and everyone who does not want to do that, also react fast (and especially give reasons). We are running on limited time now, so i suggest that we concentrate on this one instead of half a dozen half-cases like we did before.
##unvote CosmosXAM ##vote Zarepath
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On January 27 2012 09:26 Simberto wrote:
If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me.
Be very careful with that assumption. From the perspective of zarepath being scum I think there are only 3 possible likelihoods. 1. We lynch FakePromise, he flips town, and zarepath looks good for defending him. 2. We lynch CosmosXAM, he flips scum, and zarepath looks good for being the first real accuser. 3. We lynch CosmosXAM, he flips town, and zarepath looks the same.
I left out the possibility of FakePromise flipping scum because zarepath's own actions make it very unlikely. Just look at the statements laced through his posts.
On January 25 2012 13:28 zarepath wrote:
Randomly lynch a townie/blue: Bad. The only upside is that we can then use the information from that lynching to determine likely mafia. Who was most excited about randomly lynching that particular person? Who bandwagonned on? Who were the last few votes who made the lynch possible?
On January 25 2012 19:22 zarepath wrote:
The point is that upon flip, we have much more to go on. Anyone irrationally defending you now, if it turns out you're mafia, has a solid chance of also being mafia. So no, not anyone defending you is necessarily mafia, and not necessarily anyone accusing you, but upon flip, we can figure out which side of that we can throw our suspicions.
On January 25 2012 19:38 zarepath wrote:
Upon flip, we'll know whether the plan's supporters or detractors were likely mafia or not. Not both sides at once, regardless of flip.
It's far better than a random lynch because, with a specific target, people have to reveal themselves by defending/accusing him. The information we gain from his flip then has repercussions; the information we'd gain from a random lynch would just be hit/miss with zero opportunity for analysis, save theory-based ("anyone who votes for random is mafia" "with 4/13 random vote is actually worse for mafia" etc.). Instead we can see who defended him and who attacked him and have actual leads from there headed into Day 2.
If anything zarepath has been trying to get us to focus on who supported and attacked whoever is lynched. This makes it seem very unlikely to me that he would adamantly defend someone he knows is mafia when that person holds little to no sway over the town and is still likely to be lynched. It is far more likely that he has set himself up to defend an innocent or bus a fellow scum. He gains favor in the town regardless of the way the lynch goes. So, to counter your point, if zarepath flips red I think it is far more likely that FakePromise is town and it will cast even more suspicion on CosmosXAM.
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Well, that was surprising, to say the least. Sloosh's post is quite rigorous. I think your intentions are good, but you're barking up the wrong tree. Let me address each point.
On January 27 2012 08:01 slOosh wrote: Zarepath opens the day's discussions with a random / no lynch proposal. We've discussed how it is a poorly thought out, Anti-Town plan. Yes. No one had posted, and figured much of the first day would be "well, how do we do this?" unless somebody put forth a concrete plan. I honestly thought it was a reasonable plan. I underestimated how much information we'd be able to glean on the first day, and, well, you see that I backed off.
This isn't a hard slip up but it isn't quite null tell either. The question is good. What do we want to accomplish. He doesn't answer his own question though. He offers a plan and sweeps the question under the rug.
Offering a plan doesn't preclude a discussion about our goals. To simply say "What do we want to accomplish?" without offering a plan is a nothing post. My plan's goal was to gain information based on accusing someone random. Don't see the problem here.
Look at his mentions of alignments (mafia, blue, town). Look past the plan itself and observe his word choice.
Did you see what I saw? "Once that person flips blue or red". You KNOW it was NOT a typo since one paragraph above he uses the phrase "1 dead townie" and that he considers the two factions mafia and townie/blue. I believe he has blue hunting on his mind and it leaked out.
Blue/red is meant to mean good/townie/bad. I don't see how a plan to randomly lynch someone implies blue hunting, because I had zero to go on when picking zelblade. If every slight misuse of the term "blue" is supposed to mean you're mafia, we're going to have a hard road figuring things out.
If we don't lynch someone today we won't have as much information to start day 2
I don't see the problem with this, either.
He is pushing for a kill for information. Information!! He doesn't care if its not a mafia, because he wants information! He uses the word "necessarily" twice, and after the flip the information can help town "[cast] our suspicions". He doesn't even value the information gained from the flip that highly.
Yes, I do. This is semantics. "Necessarily" means that I'm not implying that both accusers and defenders are guilty of being mafia; "necessarily" means that it's one or the other, and upon flip, we know which one.
Zelblade points out that town has 2 mislynches to Lylo (which I think is unhelpful information but that is beside the point). Zarepath uses this information. If you use someones info, it means that they are contributing. He ends the post saying that we should go after suspicious people, namely Zelblade.
He uses information provided by someone who he thinks as suspicious. He calls for pressure on zelblade that he does not create himself .
I'm the ORIGINAL pressure on zelblade. All zelblade pressure originated from me calling for his lynch at the very beginning.
Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 23:55 zarepath wrote: Okay, forget random lynching. I still think targeting someone randomly and seeing how they respond is better than policy-lynching the quiet people, but I think it's a good point that with 4 mafia, we can only miss-lynch twice.
But we need something to go on; some way of getting info. I have a few ideas but there are still a lot of people we haven't heard from. Quiet people need to speak up soon. Again, this quest for info (obtained by killing innocents or mafia he doesn't care) and self contradictions. What happened to the pressure Zelblade plan? You mean the plan that everyone else thought was super stupid and scummy? I don't see how consistently valuing information and a plan is bad. Everyone else seemed to think that pressuring less-actives was a better plan. Obviously I do care if we lynch an innocent; how is this different from putting pressure on less-actives (whether they're mafia or not)? And note that the pressure put on zelblade revealed a lot about him; the accusation against him showed that Fake is suspicious for awful argumentation; and it created a platform for discussion that's done nothing but benefit town.
Ok. So he says he is concerned with mislynch. As in, lynching people who are not mafia. He says that Fake is not mafia very adamantly Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 22:00 zarepath wrote:"I do NOT think that FakePromise is a mafia."
yet look at his wording at the end. First, "I think". Not, Cosmos is the stronger candidate, but "I think". Where did that conviction go Zarepath? I'm quite convinced in Fake's innocence. I'm more convinced in his innocence than I am in Cosmos' guilt. Again, I don't see the problem here.
Furthermore, look at his voting pattern. After he posts his "FakePromise is an inexperienced town" at January 26 2012 22:00, he waits for Simberto to agree and vote first before he casts his own vote 6 minutes after at January 27 2012 03:05. 5 Hours and after someone else goes first.
Vote timing is hardly an indication of me being mafia. Wouldn't it have been more suspicious for me to wait for someone to disagree, and then back off my "FakePromise is innocent" argument? Honestly, the least-suspicous timing would have been for me to vote exactly when I posted.
You'll note that the entire thread is filled with people declaring their suspicions and yet not voting for that person until voting started. I voted after Simberto did because it was becoming clear that votes needed to be counted. Waiting for someone else's confirmation of my theory... what would that even gain if I were mafia?
I'm impressed with how thoroughly you've examined my posts. But honestly, if you were to decide that any other active player were mafia simply because you read a thread about active mafia, you would find similar "inconsistencies" that are simply misunderstandings in semantics.
I've done nothing but further town discussion, point towards suspicious people, contribute actual analytical defense of people that others are accusing, trying to aright the lynchpath -- etc.
There are numerous others who only accuse without good argument, refuse to defend themselves, or don't even post at all. While a wall of text analysis is impressive, it's operating on assumptions and while it might feel cool to be suspicious of an active town contributor, you really have nothing to go on here.
I don't think that you're mafia, simply because I don't think mafia would go to such effort to declare suspicion, on their own, against somebody on arguments that's frankly just looking for semantic proof to confirm their suspicion. You'd have nothing to gain when I flip green/blue (see how I learned?) because we'd all know who to lynch.
I'm holding my vote for Cosmos, and I continue to suggest that people avoid voting for FakePromise, who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.
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I'm holding my vote for Cosmos, and I continue to suggest that people avoid voting for FakePromise, who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.
fakepromise, is a mafia with good mafia intentions
also why do you keep defending him when its impossible to defend him with conclusive reasoning,
FakePromise, who's probably just a townie with bad arguments. prove it
so because you keep defending someone that no townie would defend, im torn between fakepromise who betrayed the town by agreeing to a lynching which goes against the towns odds, or the person defending the traitor
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In the few recent posts I have seen defending FakePromise it is all on the basis that he might just be an uninformed townie who makes poor and bad arguments due to inexperience. I see many post's defending the accused essentially chocolate (whom i do not believe is mafia; still not 100% but is a low probability), FakePromise (whom I believe is a strong candidate for mafia), and zarepath (whom I voted for). In a case where a larger group of 2-4 people strongly defend a person while simultaneously attack another seems to me like a deflection that could be very well employed by a mafia helping a friend: they bring attention off their ally and put pressure on someone who isnt. Now even if it isn't a larger group like that you would think that a person known by the mafia to be mafia would at least be defended a little. I am seeing a some strong similarities in posts and opinions and some alliances showing their faces, I would advise everyone to re-read some posts by both zarepath and DoYouHas. I noticed that their later posts have striking similarities and that they both seem to just pick targets together, first with zelblade and now with me, and they attacked us while in most cases defending someone else in both cases FakePromise and in DoYouHas's case zarepath. To me this seems very scummy and I stand 100% by my vote on zarepath as of this point.
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Look at the candidates:
FakePromise: makes an awful post, offers almost no defense, and doesn't see a reason to defend further. That's either intentional mafia suicide or just a newb townie/blue -- and considering that this is a newbie game, his posts just seem more noob-like than they do guilty. It's impossible to prove -- it's just a hunch based on my analysis. It's what I believe.
Cosmos: Accused four (4!) different people, mostly just people who accuse him.
Myself: Needlessly put myself in the spotlight with a first post plan, backed off when others disagreed, and risked my neck a second time according to my honest analysis even when it would've been easier to simply bandwagon on Fake if I were mafia. I've only risked myself when it would've been super easy to blend back into the quasi-lurkers
We still need to circle the wagons on zelblade again, but as the deadline approaches, and considering the votes right now, those are the only three people worth talking about right now.
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Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation.
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why would fakepromise vote for thefearedbeing
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On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation.
you are bluffing
how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here
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Well voting for cosmos has accomplished my goal of getting him to post. Honestly there are a bunch of people that seem suspicious, but there is one that just seems more suspicious than everyone, and that is fakepromise. Zare has a moderately strong case against him but I think lynching an active player who seems a little suspicious is worse than lynching one who is more suspicious and posts less
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I'm not talking about Feared Being. I'm talking about less-actives like zelblade, cosmos and yourself, who post little, small, and acusaTORY THINGS WITH NO REAL ANALYSIS
(sorry holding baby)
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If every slight misuse of the term "blue" is supposed to mean you're mafia, we're going to have a hard road figuring things out. It's your choice of using "blue" to represent town alignment that is questionable, especially considering you used the phrase "townie/blue" several times in the same post. It's not a slight misuse to say that blue means town. Using green to represent town is common. No one uses blue to do it. Except you.
Show nested quote +slOosh: If we don't lynch someone today we won't have as much information to start day 2 I don't see the problem with this, either. Show nested quote +slOosh: He is pushing for a kill for information. Information!! He doesn't care if its not a mafia, because he wants information! He uses the word "necessarily" twice, and after the flip the information can help town "[cast] our suspicions". He doesn't even value the information gained from the flip that highly. Yes, I do. This is semantics. "Necessarily" means that I'm not implying that both accusers and defenders are guilty of being mafia; "necessarily" means that it's one or the other, and upon flip, we know which one.
Lynching for info is dumb. We get info regardless of who is lynched, and yet you keep using this excuse to push forward lynches. It is clear that we have thrown out no-lynch as a poor choice. It is illogical to use this excuse of information gathering to support lynching specific people.
I'm the ORIGINAL pressure on zelblade. All zelblade pressure originated from me calling for his lynch at the very beginning.
Yea, sure: My post, Zel's response, then yours 3 posts and 5 hours down. Who was the one with the FOS ????
Vote timing is hardly an indication of me being mafia. Wouldn't it have been more suspicious for me to wait for someone to disagree, and then back off my "FakePromise is innocent" argument? Honestly, the least-suspicous timing would have been for me to vote exactly when I posted.
This wasn't one of the cases I pushed, but you use WIFOM very often. Wouldn'ts and woulds don't help us. Vote timing IS an indication. If you really believed it to be true then you stick with it. Much like I am sticking my neck out gunning for you. If you can't even make the first vote on your own analysis then clearly you don't believe it, you aren't acting on your words and that is called deception - something only a mafia would do.
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Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe).
##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise
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On January 27 2012 11:18 Simberto wrote: Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe).
##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise
FakePromise flipping either one does not dissolve my analysis and arguments. It might add weight to the other side, but my case still stands as the only real analysis argument. A good mafia looks like town and it is a critical error to let them blend in and look over those tells and motives that indicate that they aren't town .
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Since it looks like I'm gonna be lynched, I recommend you guys vote on zarepath after me
##unvote TheFearedBeing ##vote zarepath
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I suppose that makes sense considering it's now between you and me, but really? I'm the only one who defended you.
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You defend me, they lynch me, turns out I flip green, you look really good.
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If I were mafia, it would've looked even better for me to just climb on the FakePromise Lynching Wagon so the doubt just goes onto Simberto and everyone else.
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Anyone else see this scripted dialogue? Looks like a bus in action. (Bussing is when a mafia who knows that they will die and so try to give credibility and influence to another mafia member with their death. In this case I think mafia is bussing Fake to make zarepath look better.)
I want to emphasize that fakepromise flipping whatever does not throw my analysis out the window. It does not.
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While we wait, Zarepath mind addressing my response to your defense?
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Start of Night 1
At first, the small town of Liquidville responded to the news of four escaped murderers in their midst with calm complacency, as though unable to believe such criminals could walk among them undetected. As the day wore on, though, the citizens slowly but surely grew inflamed with suspicions -- suspicions about each other, about the escaped Mafiosos, and about how they could possibly tell one from the other.
Confused and worried, the citizens of Liquidville decided to meet in the town square for a community meeting, so that everyone could speak and share their thoughts on the criminals' whereabouts. The cacophony of voices and opinions was deafening. Everyone pointed fingers one way or the other…everyone, but FakePromise, a tall serious-faced man who stood quietly in the back watching and saying nothing. Somehow, in the midst of all the clamor, his silence became too noticeable to ignore.
"He's not saying much!" "That must mean he's hiding something!" "Look at him, he must be Mafia!" The cries echoed throughout the town square. "Drag him up to the gallows, so we can see the color of his blood!"
Uttering virtually soundless protests, FakePromise was dragged to the center of the square and strung up on the gallows. Even when he died, the man barely made a noise. However, the greenish-tinged blood spurting from FakePromise's mouth spoke loudly enough for him.
FakePromise has been lynched.
Night 1 has begun! Please send your night actions to me and Qatol. Night ends in 24 hours, on Friday, Jan. 27 at 03:00 GMT (+00:00).
TheFearedBeing has been modkilled and is being replaced by Adam4167.
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Good afternoon gentlemen.
As is regular with newbie games, someone went inactive and now you're stuck with me =)
Ill catch up the thread over the next 24 hours.
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On January 27 2012 11:15 slOosh wrote: It's your choice of using "blue" to represent town alignment that is questionable, especially considering you used the phrase "townie/blue" several times in the same post. It's not a slight misuse to say that blue means town. Using green to represent town is common. No one uses blue to do it. Except you. Town is blue, town is green -- this is the most trivial thing in the world. I don't see how a first-time player simply categorizing good as blue and red as bad belies mafia.
Lynching for info is dumb. We get info regardless of who is lynched, and yet you keep using this excuse to push forward lynches. It is clear that we have thrown out no-lynch as a poor choice. It is illogical to use this excuse of information gathering to support lynching specific people.
And so I stopped supporting that plan! We got information just from accusing zelblade, which was the goal in the end anyway. Your problem with my plan is more based on theory than it is inherent guilt.
Congratulations, I guess? You beat me to using the acronym? I honestly still don't understand your problem with this one. I backed off the pressure because everyone hated my plan.
This wasn't one of the cases I pushed, but you use WIFOM very often. Wouldn'ts and woulds don't help us. Vote timing IS an indication. If you really believed it to be true then you stick with it. Much like I am sticking my neck out gunning for you. If you can't even make the first vote on your own analysis then clearly you don't believe it, you aren't acting on your words and that is called deception - something only a mafia would do.
How many times in the thread did people lay suspicion on someone and not vote? Almost every single time. But when I argue to not vote for someone, I have to immediately vote for my number one target in the same post or else I'm deceiving everyone? That's not deceptive. It was clear to everyone who I wanted to vote for. I stuck my neck way out for that, calling attention on myself to defend someone that was easily on his path to be lynched; there was no chance I could back off that analysis, and no reason to, either, as it was honest analysis meant to help the town from mis-lynching. The actual formality of the vote was just that -- a formality. When Simberto called for votes to come in so the Europeans could go to bed, that's when I put mine in. That's all there was to it.
Look, I'm not mafia. I don't know why mafia would behave the way I've behaved this entire first day. But we're having this 4-6 player discussion about an active townie while everyone else gets by just bandwagoning and not contributing anything.
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Good grief. Play better next time, FakePromise :S
I've become less suspicious of zarepath since after he gave up on his first plan, and I don't think that slOosh's points are too condemning. Instead, I'm going to make a case against Bromancipate. I'm not going to quote all of his posts and do a point-by-point analysis, because I think it's way too easy to get caught up in confirmation bias at that point. Instead, I'm going to focus on two things.
1) He begins with some strong posts, bickers with me for a bit, and then goes quiet. This allows him to avoid being labeled as an inactive/lurking player, but, if you look at what he's written, there really isn't that much of substance. His most recent post (as of this post) said that he should respond to any new developments near the end of Day 1, but he has had nothing to say on the rather-important motion to switch to zarepath. Considering that the account is actually two people, both of whom are normally rather active on TL, this relative quiet seems out of place.
2) His bickering with me revolves around him failing to comprehend a turn of phrase that he and I in turn quoted a total of five times ("I don't agree with not [...]"). While I understand that using a double negative was difficult to comprehend, the extent to which he pulled on that string seems rather exaggerated. Did you all have as much difficulty as he did in reading that sentence of mine?
On January 26 2012 12:48 Bromancipate wrote:You said, "I do not agree with pressuring lurking/inactive players with the thread of a first-day lynch."
Note that he even typed it out (presumably, as he mis-spelled "threat"), and omitted typing out the key word "not". This allowed him to make three long indignant posts towards me, again allowing him to show his face and look participatory. When such activity is founded on something that he can then brush off as a mistake, it makes the rest of his posts ring follow. These are the kinds of posts that distract the town's attention, hindering the development of a good atmosphere.
Very odd, don't you think?
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EBWOP:
Spelling error, the third paragraph, third line should read:
"it makes the rest of his posts ring hollow."
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After cooling off, I have to reluctantly agree. I don't think me getting tunnel vision and attacking zarepath is helpful to town when there are still so many lurkers in the game. I'm willing to back off in order to punish inactives/lurkers.
I do agree with MidnightGladius that Bromancipate is a good place to start.
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Can we please keep this discussion going? We are squandering valuable time and letting lurkers lurk all the while. I should like to see some substantial posts from SacredSystems. He has gotten by with short posts and few real contributions. Everyone needs to be posting more now that we have another piece of solid information instead of a day2 drop off. In regards to the contributions from Bromanicpate, I skimmed over a bunch of their posting in Newbie Mini Mafia II and both similarities and sketchy elements to their play were revealed. In that game jitsu/Probulous were townie and detective respectively.They seem to be significantly more involved, practically spamming short to medium length posts (probulous more than jitsu). But while the sizes and frequency of their posts is different this game (which is partially explained by a pre-game post they made) the style is changing very little from their previous game. Even with the quoting gaff and suspicious absence I still find people like zarepath and CosmosXAM the be equally or more suspicious. My point being that while Bromancipate has put himself under suspicion, don't get completely sidetracked and forget earlier analysis. Here are their filters from the previous game in case you want to read up on them yourself. jitsu: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=299955&user=187886 Probulous: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=299955&user=156748
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The most suspicious part of Probulous' Day 1, imo, is the fact he said he would check back for major developments, which is when Lynch Zarepath happened, and he said nothing. I don't know what his lack of presence would imply, except an inconsistency which needs to be explained.
Zelblade has a very similar Day 1 arc, wherein he spends all of its beginning defending himself, apologizing, and lashing out, and then he goes almost entirely inactive at the end.
I want to hear from both these players as to why they went inactive at the end of the day, withholding their arguments at the day's key point.
The third person I really want to hear from right now is Adam. I think it's unlikely that he inherited a Mafia spot... but that's pure speculation, and we need to hear something. I'm curious what your analysis is of the first day, and who you find most suspicious.
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EBWOP: By Probulous I mean Bromancipate, for clarity.
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I pulled back as to not derail the thread but this lack of posting is appalling.
The night is 2/3rds over but only 4 people have posted. This will not do.
I propose we take a serious look at zelblade. He is the one I feel strongest about being mafia.
Here is his filter
I think DoYouHas nailed it. And I'll talk about his response to this post.
On January 26 2012 08:01 DoYouHas wrote:I believe zelblade is our best lynch option. Just look at what he did when thrust into the spotlight. Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 15:48 zelblade wrote:On January 25 2012 15:40 slOosh wrote:On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
Ok this post is really weird. 1) OP clearly states Mafia KP. On January 24 2012 08:35 dreamflower wrote: Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining.
Of course this is a newbie game so y'know, people make mistakes. 2) This post doesn't actually give us anything new or that helpful. We can do the math and figure how many mislynches we have till Lylo, which isn't information you typically use day 1. I mean, unless you push for no lynch, how's that info help? 3) This is the part that got me from giving benefit of the doubt to feeling weird: On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
What the heck? Who does this? Who addresses town? A town post would have started at "we need to post more ...". #FOS zelblade 1) Opps my bad, didnt see that part. 2) I was simply trying to generate some discussion as it would seem that no one was talking much, and trying to emphasise that we need to use our lynches carefully. 3) I am sorry if that came off at scummy, and what i simply meant by that part was that town needs to post more. Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 00:14 zelblade wrote:On January 25 2012 14:19 zelblade wrote:As for what to do with our day 1 lynch, i suggest that we lynch a lurker unless a better canditate comes up. Remember that we still have alot of time left before the deadline, so we should utilize this time well to discuss and find a better lynch candidate than lynching by reverse-alphabetical order. If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating). Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 00:37 zelblade wrote:On January 26 2012 00:29 Simberto wrote: EBWOP
And that (no random lynching) includes zarepath who has also already stated that he does not believe in random lynching anymore. So why did you bring him up again? I was trying to explain the contradiction u pointed out earlier. He has been apologizing and clarifying posts (which were already pretty clear) ever since spl0osh criticized his second post. Instead of using the spotlight to voice his own suspicions or convince us of his innocence, he has tried to move out of the spotlight as quickly and quietly as possible, while avoiding offending anyone. While his initial posts weren't particularly scummy, his responses have been nothing but suspicious. ## Vote: zelblade
His response to this post? More apologizing
The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that.
Also @ fakepromise i am not really sure what you mean by this part.... I really dont understand the bolded part, what did u mean by that? He certainly isnt accusing you because you happened to be reading after i posted.... as that doesnt make sense.
He paints himself as a newbie player and He emphasizes his confusion. Simberto does a good job explaining why town does not do this.
On January 26 2012 23:35 Simberto wrote:Zelblade looks absurdly scummy at this point, really even so much that i might even favor him over lynching a lurker. He posted a lot in the beginning, his posts made him look scummy, and now he does nothing but post apologetic things and attacks onto the easy target FakePromise. Take a look at this gem: Show nested quote + The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that.
He apologizes for being apologetic. Really? AND he paints himself as a noob. Why should a towny do that? As town, i want people to trust me, and carefully consider what i say, not take me for a noob who has nothing important to say. However, "being a noob" is a wonderful excuse for inconsistencies that might result from mafia trying to act as town. The rest of his only post today was used to specifically attack FakePromise, who is already in pretty deep problems anyways.
His final post? He doesn't try apologizing, nor explaining himself anymore. He ignores Simberto's post.
On January 27 2012 00:19 zelblade wrote: Since I have to go to sleep soon (in about half and hour) and fakepromise still hasnt posted any sort of defence yet, I will be voting for him for now. Will wake up to check the thread in probably about 7-8 hours or so when i wake up, though i probably can only skim through the thread as i have to rush to school than, but definately can change my vote if need be. ##vote FakePromise
Do not let him get away with this lurking.
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Are people not talking because they don't know what to talk about?
How about this. Answer these two questions - Name one person who you think is town and why. - Name one person who you think is mafia and why.
Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade - answer the question. All the rest of us have been pretty active and so instead of answering this ourselves we should pressure the lurkers. By withholding our own answers, we can put these guys in the spotlight.
There are 7 hours left in the night. Post or warrant more suspicion on yourselves. Town have nothing to fear, and much to gain by posting.
List of haven't posted yet: Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade.
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Are the mafia told who the other mafia members are at the start of the first day, or only at night?
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There are 7 inactives/lurkers, and mafia know how many of their members are in that group.
That leaves at best 3 town/blue in that group. Staying quiet does not make you less of a target to mafia. If anything it draws attention as the only reason non mafia would lay low is if you are blue. Blues : Your powers are not the only contribution you can make. Please post.
There is no reason to stay quiet. I want to re-iterate: Town has much to gain by posting.
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@Sacred Mafia know each other as soon as they received their pm.
Sacred, what are your responses to my two questions?
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Yea sorry I am inactive during most of the day, a lot of school makes this game hard sometimes.
but to answer your question I would have to say that you appear to be town because all you seem to do is forward the conversation and constantly try to keep everyone on track.
and for who is mafia I would have to go with zarepath like I said in earlier posts, I dont feel that fakepromise going town redeems zarepath of my suspisions.
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On January 28 2012 06:13 slOosh wrote: @Sacred Mafia know each other as soon as they received their pm.
Sacred, what are your responses to my two questions?
thank you and im still thinking
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The you in that post is slOosh
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On January 28 2012 05:09 slOosh wrote: Are people not talking because they don't know what to talk about?
How about this. Answer these two questions - Name one person who you think is town and why. - Name one person who you think is mafia and why.
Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade - answer the question. All the rest of us have been pretty active and so instead of answering this ourselves we should pressure the lurkers. By withholding our own answers, we can put these guys in the spotlight.
There are 7 hours left in the night. Post or warrant more suspicion on yourselves. Town have nothing to fear, and much to gain by posting.
List of haven't posted yet: Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade.
Well I'm back from school so here goes nothing.
I think simberto is the most town because he has posted many posts, usually with good content a la getting people to post, analyzing, etc. He is very active, although not so much tonight as he has been while I've been gone before.
I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. Zellblade has been suspicious to me for the whole game, as has zarepath.
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On January 27 2012 10:42 CosmosXAM wrote: In a case where a larger group of 2-4 people strongly defend a person while simultaneously attack another seems to me like a deflection that could be very well employed by a mafia helping a friend: they bring attention off their ally and put pressure on someone who isnt. Now even if it isn't a larger group like that you would think that a person known by the mafia to be mafia would at least be defended a little. I am seeing a some strong similarities in posts and opinions and some alliances showing their faces, I would advise everyone to re-read some posts by both zarepath and DoYouHas. I noticed that their later posts have striking similarities and that they both seem to just pick targets together, first with zelblade and now with me, and they attacked us while in most cases defending someone else in both cases FakePromise and in DoYouHas's case zarepath. To me this seems very scummy and I stand 100% by my vote on zarepath as of this point. I am inclined to believe that Zarepath and DoYouHas are townies who are independently coming to the same conclusions using logic, analysis etc. For instance if both of them see an attack built on questionable logic by player A on player B, it makes sense that they defend B and suspect A as they see the logic is flawed.
I also picked zelblade as a target with them. I also have shifted to believing that Zarepath is not mafia, or in the very least not anti-town. I display the same behavior for which you are suspicious of Zarepath. Yet you think I am town and Zarepath is mafia.
Care to explain?
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Thank you people who have posted. This is helps us alot.
Please limit your choice to ONE person only. (I.e. one town and one mafia). Naming more makes it difficult to discern your stance and lets mafia get away with weakly pointing at people that other people are pointing at.
List of haven't posted yet (in bold) Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade.
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On January 28 2012 06:30 Chocolate wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 05:09 slOosh wrote: Are people not talking because they don't know what to talk about?
How about this. Answer these two questions - Name one person who you think is town and why. - Name one person who you think is mafia and why.
Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade - answer the question. All the rest of us have been pretty active and so instead of answering this ourselves we should pressure the lurkers. By withholding our own answers, we can put these guys in the spotlight.
There are 7 hours left in the night. Post or warrant more suspicion on yourselves. Town have nothing to fear, and much to gain by posting.
List of haven't posted yet: Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade.
Well I'm back from school so here goes nothing. I think simberto is the most town because he has posted many posts, usually with good content a la getting people to post, analyzing, etc. He is very active, although not so much tonight as he has been while I've been gone before. I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. Zellblade has been suspicious to me for the whole game, as has zarepath.
Please provide one quote of his in which he does this and show how you come to this conclusion. I want to see you do it, instead of doing it for you. Pick only one mafia suspect.
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On January 28 2012 06:20 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 06:13 slOosh wrote: @Sacred Mafia know each other as soon as they received their pm.
Sacred, what are your responses to my two questions?
thank you and im still thinking
The longer you take to post, the more suspicions cast upon you.
Town are always thinking of who could be town who could be mafia as they start with 0 information Mafia do not since they already have the information.
Post.
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Also, to the active players on the list, could you please give me a confirmation if you are here and able to post? (Just say, "Here" or something. Please chime in if you see really faulty logic or see posts that try to evade the question. However keep suspicions and suspects to yourself for now.)
Day is approaching. We have 5 hours. Sacred I'm still waiting on you and you look less credible as time goes on. Delaying is something only mafia do as they want to get their plan straightened out. Town should already have stuff in mind.
Post.
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if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him?
however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia
also what does this even mean?????
I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him.
also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing
so now tell me why would you not be mafia?
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also what does this even mean????? I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him.
also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing
so now tell me why would you not be mafia?
that was all directed at chocolate
and since zelblade has been suspicious of chocolate this whole time maybe he all of his apologies are just the result of him being a noob
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On January 28 2012 06:57 SacredSystem wrote:if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia also what does this even mean????? Show nested quote + I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing so now tell me why would you not be mafia?
Please do not defend yourself and start arguments and clutter the thread.
Please only post 1 mafia suspect.
Please also post 1 person who you think is town.
Straying from format is disruptive and unhelpful. You look suspicious for not following the plan. Please stay on course. We are collecting data. Arguments hinder collection.
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I'm here. Will be for another hour or so, and then maybe I only have time to check once tonight.
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On January 28 2012 06:41 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 06:30 Chocolate wrote:On January 28 2012 05:09 slOosh wrote: Are people not talking because they don't know what to talk about?
How about this. Answer these two questions - Name one person who you think is town and why. - Name one person who you think is mafia and why.
Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade - answer the question. All the rest of us have been pretty active and so instead of answering this ourselves we should pressure the lurkers. By withholding our own answers, we can put these guys in the spotlight.
There are 7 hours left in the night. Post or warrant more suspicion on yourselves. Town have nothing to fear, and much to gain by posting.
List of haven't posted yet: Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade.
Well I'm back from school so here goes nothing. I think simberto is the most town because he has posted many posts, usually with good content a la getting people to post, analyzing, etc. He is very active, although not so much tonight as he has been while I've been gone before. I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. Zellblade has been suspicious to me for the whole game, as has zarepath. Please provide one quote of his in which he does this and show how you come to this conclusion. I want to see you do it, instead of doing it for you. Pick only one mafia suspect. I presume you mean SS.
He is confusing in his word choice and spelling in all of his posts but I guess this one is a good example.
On January 26 2012 10:34 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 09:04 CosmosXAM wrote:On January 26 2012 08:27 SacredSystem wrote: ## vote: FakePromise 1: you gotta vote in the voting thread http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=306091and 2: I find it a bit odd your jump from On January 25 2012 14:55 SacredSystem wrote: However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
to straight up voting for him, I mean sure he now has two votes going for him but you said that you wanted to wait for more information and based on him only posting once and your points about him just being copy&paste what other people had said earlier and not offering any new information or opinions I find your vote to be very bandwagon-ey. I am not trying to say that you are mafia or to go as far as that but just pointing out that simply copying what others say and blindly agreeing is very suspicious. i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumuptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it now fakepromise made a decision which doenst make much sense from the townes perspective, now im not assuming anything in sayin that, which is why im voting for fakepromise as mafiasorry i forgot about the voting thread The bolded part isthe most confusing because he says he is not assuming anything from his post about mafia odds but then says that's why he is voting for FP as mafia.
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chocolate is mafia simberto is town
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Chocolate and Cosmos, I am still waiting for your responses. One post does not remove your lurker label. As I keep reiterating, town has much to gain by sharing information.
We have all day tomorrow - 48 hours - to lynch. That is enough time to form analysis and argue. We have 5 hours to collect information. The focus is collecting information.
I want to do it before day comes as to provide our blues with the most information possible. I trust in their judgement, and so more information just helps them make better choices at protecting etc.
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I just posted again
Also SS please explain your reasoning; I have explained mine and it is nowhere near conclusive, meaning that i'm not very certain your are mafia, just that you are the best candidate in my eyes right now to be one.
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On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote: chocolate is mafia simberto is town
You initially picked Zelblade and zarepath before that. Are you sticking with zelblade? Ignore Chocolate as your defensive backlash clutters the thread, and hinders our information process.
Also give a reason why you think Simberto is town.
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On January 28 2012 07:15 Chocolate wrote: I just posted again
Also SS please explain your reasoning; I have explained mine and it is nowhere near conclusive, meaning that i'm not very certain your are mafia, just that you are the best candidate in my eyes right now to be one.
Thank you for posting. However, SS please do not explain your reasoning against Chocolate at this time. We do not want a SS vs Chocolate argument derailing the information gathering plan.
The highest priority right now is getting information into our blue's hands.
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Sl0osh, please don't attack them for breaking your format. If getting lurkers truly involved is your goal, having a couple of them start arguing is exactly what we want. It is not like a few posts are going to distract you from the people remaining who haven't posted. You are cutting off a potential source of information.
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On January 28 2012 07:18 DoYouHas wrote: Sl0osh, please don't attack them for breaking your format. If getting lurkers truly involved is your goal, having a couple of them start arguing is exactly what we want. It is not like a few posts are going to distract you from the people remaining who haven't posted. You are cutting off a potential source of information. You are right, thank you.
Can I ask how long / frequently you will be on till day?
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I will be checking this thread regularly until the day post, but I will be gone for a while shortly after 10EST. I'll check the thread again at least once between when I get back and when I go to bed.
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i was some what suspicious of zarepath, just as we all were, for sugessting random lynching, -being suspicious of him presents good town motives
then zarepath consistently posted excuses and apologies
simberto also figured out that chocolate hasnt contributed anything
now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic
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On January 28 2012 07:28 DoYouHas wrote: I will be checking this thread regularly until the day post, but I will be gone for a while shortly after 10EST. I'll check the thread again at least once between when I get back and when I go to bed. Oh ok. I'll an appointment in about an hour and won't be back until around maybe 1or 2EST?
I wanted someone active who I can trust to keep things on track, so could you do it when I am gone?
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EBWOP: I have an appointment.
Also, List of haven't posted yet (in bold) Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade.
Cosmos you won't be taken off until you respond to my post.
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I just see that deflecting arguments away from themselves by simply pointing out other suspicious people doesn't seem like very town like behavior. Also at that time they had both been voting in unison to my knowledge with DoYouHas being the one to change his vote.
To be honest there is now so much going on in the game that when I try to look at a single person whom I think to be mafia that my information get convoluted, at this time I am just trying to take a step back, slow things down and try to glance at the wider picture and scope of things.
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On January 28 2012 03:03 zarepath wrote: The third person I really want to hear from right now is Adam. I think it's unlikely that he inherited a Mafia spot... but that's pure speculation, and we need to hear something. I'm curious what your analysis is of the first day, and who you find most suspicious.
You are correct in that I inherited a townie spot, but you can only take me at my word on that =)
I read the entire thread last night. I will be posting my case closer to the deadline.
SlOosh, in regards to your questions: I will answer them once day 2 stars. I’d rather not paint a target on my back if I am heading in the right direction.
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On January 28 2012 07:56 CosmosXAM wrote: I just see that deflecting arguments away from themselves by simply pointing out other suspicious people doesn't seem like very town like behavior. Also at that time they had both been voting in unison to my knowledge with DoYouHas being the one to change his vote.
To be honest there is now so much going on in the game that when I try to look at a single person whom I think to be mafia that my information get convoluted, at this time I am just trying to take a step back, slow things down and try to glance at the wider picture and scope of things.
Thanks for posting. I understand that there is a lot going on and it is good to take a step back and look (I know it helped me a lot after day 1 ended).
So I won't ask you on people reads but on your logic (not because I'm suspicious of you but because I want more than 1 post from each lurker).
I just see that deflecting arguments away from themselves by simply pointing out other suspicious people doesn't seem like very town like behavior.
Could you explain your logic here?
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On January 28 2012 07:59 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 03:03 zarepath wrote: The third person I really want to hear from right now is Adam. I think it's unlikely that he inherited a Mafia spot... but that's pure speculation, and we need to hear something. I'm curious what your analysis is of the first day, and who you find most suspicious. You are correct in that I inherited a townie spot, but you can only take me at my word on that =) I read the entire thread last night. I will be posting my case closer to the deadline. SlOosh, in regards to your questions: I will answer them once day 2 stars. I’d rather not paint a target on my back if I am heading in the right direction.
In what way would you be painting a target on your back? With how scattered the focus of this thread is, you are not going to draw any more suspicion than anyone else by providing the mediums sized post that sl0osh is asking for. In fact, not answering makes you easier to push into being lynched tomorrow. The risk is extremely low that you will be killed tonight for answering. The risk of drawing too much town attention to yourself and wasting our time is high. Please just answer the question or do one better and give us something to work with.
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On January 28 2012 08:06 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 07:59 Adam4167 wrote:On January 28 2012 03:03 zarepath wrote: The third person I really want to hear from right now is Adam. I think it's unlikely that he inherited a Mafia spot... but that's pure speculation, and we need to hear something. I'm curious what your analysis is of the first day, and who you find most suspicious. You are correct in that I inherited a townie spot, but you can only take me at my word on that =) I read the entire thread last night. I will be posting my case closer to the deadline. SlOosh, in regards to your questions: I will answer them once day 2 stars. I’d rather not paint a target on my back if I am heading in the right direction. In what way would you be painting a target on your back? With how scattered the focus of this thread is, you are not going to draw any more suspicion than anyone else by providing the mediums sized post that sl0osh is asking for. In fact, not answering makes you easier to push into being lynched tomorrow. The risk is extremely low that you will be killed tonight for answering. The risk of drawing too much town attention to yourself and wasting our time is high. Please just answer the question or do one better and give us something to work with. Adding onto that, there is new information influx once day 2 starts. If we let people wait until day 2 to post, then they can't be held accountable to their positions in the case of conflicting night results. Mafia escape the unnerving challenge of stating things that could be flat out contradicted by night actions.
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List of haven't posted yet (in bold) Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade
Cosmos, still waiting for your response. Adam, you paint a target on your back by the town by not responding. Please post and help town.
Appointment is coming up soon, but I'll be back around 1/2EST to post what I've gleaned from this plan and help interpret the night actions.
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On January 28 2012 08:37 slOosh wrote: List of haven't posted yet (in bold) Bromancipate, SacredSystem, Chocolate, balt11t, CosmosXAM, Adam4167 and zelblade
Cosmos, still waiting for your response. Adam, you paint a target on your back by the town by not responding. Please post and help town.
Appointment is coming up soon, but I'll be back around 1/2EST to post what I've gleaned from this plan and help interpret the night actions.
Deflecting is a tactic used by many professions involving talking with a people and hiding information or making sure that the conversation goes your way. What they did is instead of focusing on themselves in a town like fashion (in my opinion) they instantly started attacking other people that had been talked about before, To me that felt very mafia like especially with how they sway the conversation away from themselves or try to by pointing out how futile their deaths will be.
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Just got back from class.
Few things of note in my opinion. I agree with Adam in his most recent post. I will be posting my thoughts closer to the deadline. My reasoning for doing this: As it stands, we have still a few hours to decide to lynch. If I display my reads to the thread, the mafia has an equal opportunity to read it as well. Like Adam, I will wait closer to the deadline to post my reads. It provides less opportunity for mafia to make a strong hit target based on their current reads.
RE: MG
The reason I chose to play on a Hydra is because I have class, Monday Through Friday, all day. That alone isn't much reason to excuse inactivity. Beyond class, however, I am also in the process of moving out of my apartment that I am in, which was the deciding factor in sharing accounts. Due to the possibility of having unstable internet/actually moving, ect., I chose to play on a hydra. Probu is actually away with his ladyfriend, I believe, until this week, so i've been trying to stay as active as possible.
Second, you come back to the miss-interpretation of a sentence, that I admitted I read wrong. For reference, go back and check Newbie Mafia II. I was doing the same thing with pressing constantly on a few players, not only to get reactions from them in particular, but from others as well. I find it odd you came back to this, again, after I already explained it was a oddly worded sentence. Maybe if you posted with more clarity, it would be easier to decipher what you are ACTUALLY trying to say.
Beyond that, I think you're just upset that I called you out and put you in the spotlight.
Hopefully Probu is coming back tomorrow, because i'm actually in the process of getting my EMT/Paramedic lisence from my local college, so as well as moving, by day will be booked mostly tomorrow. I can drop in a bit and comment here and there while i'm in between breaks. This all ok, slOosh?
I'll be back at about ten of to post my reads.
~J
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Hi, I'm back. For no apparent reason i slept for about 20 hours. Need a bit of time catching up now.
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Strongest town read - slOosh
I like the way he is trying to generate discussion. He is activily leading things in the town, however, he is also doing it at a time when the town is most vulernable (when the mafia has the power to use their kill power.) I don’t think this is any indication of scum play, quite the contrary. I feel that his overall desire to get communication rolling is one that can only benefit the town. The more posts that fill the thread, and the more the filter pages pile on, the more we have to dissect information and figure out the cancers in the town atmosphere.
Secondly, he is actively calling out players in the thread for poor play and things that he feels is scum behavior. Getting on peoples cases is another thing indicative of good town atmosphere. I just wish his transparency in to why he wants people to post so much during the night phase was something that I could agree with. I feel that there is plenty of time to post, and the time to ask these questions would be when the day hits, and for him to tunnel people hard to get the information he desires.
The most important thing that I bares interest is his ability to stop what he’s doing, step back for a second, and recalculate what is going on. Sometimes it’s beneficial to pressure, pressure, pressure, stop and wait, and then step back to recalculate relevant information. That alone would have gotten me a green feel, since mafia don’t require the need to stop what they are doing, step back, and think about their actions. They have the ability to continue to pressure because they are the informed minority – they know who is town and who isn’t. They don’t need to stop and think.
Strongest Scum Read – zelblade
I agree with what a lot of players were saying previously about him. He’s constantly apologetic, barely posting anything of substance, and just seems to be an absence member of the thread at this point. One of the first tasks for town players is to prove their innocence. He hasn’t even come to an inch of proving this point.
Top that off with his bandwagon voting of FakePromise (fourth one to vote?) and I think he would be a pretty strong lynch candidate.
However, since there is already considerable negative vibes towards zelblade, my other choice would be…
Second Scum Read - Balt11t
Someone go back and check his filter. It’s not extremely big. Of that, is there anything in there of substance? I can’t really find much. He’s also constantly apologizing for many things that come up negative towards him, and saying sorry for playing poorly. He seems altogether TOO apologetic, almost as much as Zelblade, and like he doesn’t want to step on any toes. In my opinion, people that are afraid to piss someone off aren’t trying to draw attention to themselves for a reason.
I think his general apologetic nature, as well as his lack of making any real reads and pushing anything of substance. For someone who has been lurking these Mafia games for a long time, he seems to be doing a sight less than what he should be as someone dedicated to taking the fight to the mafia. I think a strong spotlight should be on him to step up his play in the second Day and try to find someone who is playing scum. I actually can’t pull anything out of his filter because there is a significant lack of anything there. -.-
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I do not know if I agree with your scum read on balt11t, Bromancipate. Regardless, both zelblade and balt11t have not posted anything in the last 24 hours. No matter what our reads are, they need to get in here and post their minds ASAP.
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Ok, i don't want to distract from the information gathering at work here, so i will first post my reads at the moment.
Most probable mafia: zelblade
I have posted my reasoning before, and it has not fundamentally changed. Apologetic, paints himself as a noob, things that can very well be scumslips like "to town" Added now is going into HARD lurker mode as soon as the spotlight is of him. He now posts about 3 lines a day. Also, upon rereading this thread i noticed that we were pretty focused on zelblade, and then suddenly the whole "FakePromise" thing started out of nowhere.
Most probable town: Sloosh
Note that this is not a particularly strong town read, just the best i have. Contributing, and bringing up NEW points, not only reiterating the old ones.
On an other note, you all should take a look at the vote list. It would be very weird if not at least 2, more probably 3 of the people voting on FakePromise are mafia.
I will take a better look into how the whole FakePromise thing got started now, and i would encourage others do so now, too. Preferably before i am done and post my findings so that we can have multiple PoV on this and avoid conformation bias/bandwagoning.
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Also, i don't want to distract the thread from the information gathering going on at the moment, so we still need answers from:
balt11t, Adam4167 and zelblade
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Ok, this is really interesting. I think you might seriously be able to piece together most of the mafia by analysing this reaction, so i would like others to do the same, too. I will post my findings soon, but i want as many people as possible to get an uninfluenced view. So please take a look at how the whole FakePromise thing evolved.
I try to get as much stuff done in these last hours of night because i fear that i might not be alive tomorrow, so i would also suggest that tomorrow, everyone casts his vote as soon as the day starts. You are still able to change them at any time, so this is no commitment, but it allows us to not have these last-minute haggling for votes debates full of incertainty, which i don't think are a good thing.
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This case was written shortly after I joined the game on night 1.
SacredSystem
On January 25 2012 14:55 SacredSystem wrote: Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
SacredSystems first post. He implies that zarepath has “the calculated mind of a mobster”, but then says that in spite of this, we should wait for ‘the mafia to expose themselves’. The first part is a very underhanded way of implying that zarepath is scum, rather than being direct and labelling him as scum, he states zarepath has ‘scum-like’ features. The second line is encouraging passive play, or stalling until a wagon begins on zarepath and he can jump on guilt-free.
On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote: you and fakepromise
you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you
SacredSystems second post. Another attack on zarepath and FakePromise.
On January 26 2012 08:27 SacredSystem wrote: ## vote: FakePromise
SacredSystems third post. Looks like that guilt-free wagon arrived, better jump on it, he drops his vote onto FakePromise. CosmosXAM rightly points out how SacredSystem leaps from ‘we need to wait, the mafia will expose themselves’ to ‘zarepath and FakePromise are scum and im voting FakePromise’. This is very inconsistent, as all that occurred inbetween his first post and his third post was a few posts from other people saying ‘FakePromise looks suspicious’.
On January 26 2012 10:34 SacredSystem wrote:
i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumuptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing
also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it
now fakepromise made a decision which doenst make much sense from the townes perspective, now im not assuming anything in sayin that, which is why im voting for fakepromise as mafia
sorry i forgot about the voting thread
SacredSystems fourth post. After being called inconsistent by CosmosXAM, SacredSystem becomes overly defensive for being questioned: ‘also if you arnt saying anything, then don’t say it’. Now that the FakePromise wagon has started to build some momentum, notice how he stops mentioning zarepath? His post is entirely focused on FakePromise, when zarepath was the one who came up with the random lynch idea. The last sentence doesn’t even make sense, simplified it looks like this: “fakepromise made a statement which isn’t good for town, I’m not going to assume anything from it, therefore I’m voting for him as mafia.”. This is a statement that contains a conclusion that does not match the two premises.
Posts five, six and seven are SacredSystem responding to some light probing from various people and hammering home that FakePromise agreeing with a 30% success rate is conclusive enough to hang him for.
On January 27 2012 10:40 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +I'm holding my vote for Cosmos, and I continue to suggest that people avoid voting for FakePromise, who's probably just a townie with bad arguments. fakepromise, is a mafia with good mafia intentions also why do you keep defending him when its impossible to defend him with conclusive reasoning, prove it so because you keep defending someone that no townie would defend, im torn between fakepromise who betrayed the town by agreeing to a lynching which goes against the towns odds, or the person defending the traitor
SacredSystems eighth post. He attacks zarepath for defending FakePromise. He even goes as far as calling FakePromise a traitor! This is blowing something out of proportion if I have ever seen it, and misrepresentation is a basic tool of scum. He begins teeing up tomorrows mislynch of zarepath. Hard defending FakePromise like zarepath is does not make him scum.
SacredSystems ninth post is calling out FakePromise for voting for ‘thefearedbeing’ is just useless filler. FakePromise even stated right HERE that he was unsure and placed his vote on the inactive because he wasn’t prepared to take a side.
That is his total filter. Lets bullet-point recap: -Calls out zarepath and FakePromise with shaky reasoning -Once the wagon picks up on FakePromise, he forgets about zarepath -He is overly defensive when questioned -He uses inconsistent logical arguments -A couple of filler posts, asking about things that have already been explained. -Once the FakePromise lynch hits the point of no return, he switches back to attacking zarepath
I don’t see any genuine attempts to scumhunt when I look through his filter. He is entirely focused on FakePromise and zarepath throughout the whole day period. No analysis, none. He seems to be very much flying under the radar as few people have even mentioned him, only posting to further his scummy agenda. Now that FakePromise has flipped Town, take a good hard look at who was trying to drive the wagon, without sticking his head up too high to get noticed.
This is a scum. Town kills scum. Do what needs to be done:
##Vote SacredSystems
P.S If you intend on quoting this case, please spoiler it, keep the thread clean.
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Start of Day Two
The night was quiet. Too quiet.
It is now Day Two. You have 48 hours to vote on whom to lynch. Deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00) two days from now.
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Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online. Anyways, here is my conclusion. I would prefer if you try to look at how day 1 evolved with an open mind yourself before reading it to avoid confirmation bias, though.
+ Show Spoiler +I find the whole of day 1 interestingly consistent with a hypothesis of a mafia group consisting of zelbalde, SacredSystem, CosmosXAM and balt11tFakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk.
Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
Now, at day 1, mafia who just wanted to be completely comfortable in their own room suddenly got attacked by the first post, pretty randomly. Not really a problem, just need to assault the idea of a random lynch, and maybe attack some other person who is at hand. Now, they point a bit onto FakePromise. Zelblade tries to post something inconspicious to not be the person of interest anymore, and makes the "to town" slip: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
This puts him under scrutiny and into the spotlight. Anything he says now is constructed negatively. So mafia try again to push the spotlight onto someone else, the old target. My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post.
As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned. Now, we have one thing that i am not exactly sure of, which is Midnight attacking FakePromise, but maybe he really only want's to get lurkers to post. I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast.
Now this by CosmosXAM, this is just weird. Doesn't it sound like he is not defending FakePromise, but actually zelblade? To me it does. Then, we have SacredSystem answering a question directed to CosmosXAM. If that is not scummy, i don't know what is. On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:
Right, we've moved on past random lynching.
Who do you think is suspicious? you and fakepromise you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you And FakePromise comes up again. Note that up to this point, the spotlight was very much on zelblade only. CosmosXAM states the exact same thing afterwards, with the added OMGUS onto Chocolate. Now DoYouHas votes on zelblade, and instantly afterwards SacredSystem votes for FakePromise. Just look at it: Every time one of those four gets into trouble (zelblade and CosmosXAM), something from one of the others happens that redirects the thread towards FakePromise. As soon as Zarepath brings up Cosmos as an alternate lynch target, zelblade votes onto FakePromise. When they are equal on votes, balt11t very fastly votes for FakePromise to make him lead again. Now, take a look at the votes list. Interestingly enough, this team has votes 2, 4 and 6 on FakePromise. As i said before, 3 votes expected, and of course never vote in tandem to avoid suspicion. Now, i know that all of this hangs on zelblade being mafia, but this is my take on the situation at the moment. I would really like to hear what others think about it.
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Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody.
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On January 28 2012 12:03 Simberto wrote: Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online. dreamflower and I are online!
Just in case you didn't notice.....
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Now, just in case that you are not sure how to react to this, since mafia already know whom they hit on, it would be really useful for us to know that too.
Since both the medic and the target get notified on a safed hit, the best option is to have the targeted person say that they were safed. If you are a veteran and got safed by your veteran powers, ALSO state that you were safed by a medic, i think we gain more from mafia not knowing whether a medic exists than we would gain from knowing for ourselves.
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On January 28 2012 12:05 Simberto wrote: Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody. EBWOP
Also, here i obviously meant "I don't see mafia not trying to kill anybody"
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I'm more inclined to think MidnightGladius is scum over CosmosXAM. This is WIFOM but it still generally applies, why would mafia highlight their own teammates inconsistencies?
MidnightGladius' pressure vote that stuck is far more suspicious to me.
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still no one has explained this to me yet im mafia for accusing fakepromise after he agreed to 30% odds and for saying that it was a bad idea from a townes perspective to hold a random lynch
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No I have never intended to defend zelblade, sorry if it appeared that way to you but no it was my first post and I was trying to catch up on all the posts beforehand
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On January 28 2012 09:54 Bromancipate wrote: Second Scum Read - Balt11t
Someone go back and check his filter. It’s not extremely big. Of that, is there anything in there of substance? I can’t really find much. He’s also constantly apologizing for many things that come up negative towards him, and saying sorry for playing poorly. He seems altogether TOO apologetic, almost as much as Zelblade, and like he doesn’t want to step on any toes. In my opinion, people that are afraid to piss someone off aren’t trying to draw attention to themselves for a reason.
I think his general apologetic nature, as well as his lack of making any real reads and pushing anything of substance. For someone who has been lurking these Mafia games for a long time, he seems to be doing a sight less than what he should be as someone dedicated to taking the fight to the mafia. I think a strong spotlight should be on him to step up his play in the second Day and try to find someone who is playing scum. I actually can’t pull anything out of his filter because there is a significant lack of anything there. -.-
This isn't true in the slightest. The only thing I've apologized for in this game has been unavailibilty due to school, and one due to a misunderstanding I created with hasty typing. Yes, my schoolwork takes up a lot of time, and yes, I realize due to this I have not been entirely active. But I hardly see explaining my abscences as TOO apologetic, rather a curtousey. And if you must know, coupled with my busy school-stuff, my internet today has been on and off all day. So if you call me being curteous being scummy, then yes, I am scummy. If you really want to take an interest in my personal life, I am in 4 AP classes, coupled with Advanced Band, and Speech team; I am a busy guy to say the least. In this week, I have had 3 tests, 2 papers, and a solo jury due, so now the time I can devote to his game will exponentially rise. I hope my explanantion to my whereabouts have sufficed for you, Bromancipate.
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On January 28 2012 13:00 SacredSystem wrote: still no one has explained this to me yet im mafia for accusing fakepromise after he agreed to 30% odds and for saying that it was a bad idea from a townes perspective to hold a random lynch
Doing these things is not inherently scummy, its how you did them.
You advocated patience and then jumped onto FakePromise a couple posts later. You stated that 'it was conclusive!', yet your reasoning was poor and bandwagony.
I dont dare to assume the inner workings of zarepaths head, but I doubt he was ever going to follow through with the random lynch plan. It was a discussion starter... and guess what, it worked.
Your actions since my first case was written aren't flattering either: -More discrediting of zarepath -a giant OMGUS at Chocolate -You state 'im most suspicious of zelblade', then in your next post THREE MINUTES LATER, you state hes probably noobie town. -And the out-of-nowhere question 'Are the mafia told who the other mafia members are at the start of the first day, or only at night?' just stinks of 'oh look guys, i really don't understand how the mafia team works, I couldn't possibly be mafia'.
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While your here balt11t, Id really like to know why you ninja voted on FakePromises yesterday at 8:27, yet your last post was at 6:29.
Declare your votes in the thread when you make them, and actually have them backed up with some reason.
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On January 28 2012 13:25 Adam4167 wrote: While your here balt11t, Id really like to know why you ninja voted on FakePromises yesterday at 8:27, yet your last post was at 6:29.
Declare your votes in the thread when you make them, and actually have them backed up with some reason.
Did I not back my position against FakePromise explicitly beforehand? Why should I repeat myself, when he was (in my opinion) the only true candidate for lynching? As I mentioned earlier, for a random lynch, 30% success is not very good odds, and I was prominent in advocating my dislike for his plans, which seemed rather scummy.
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On January 28 2012 13:34 balt11t wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 13:25 Adam4167 wrote: While your here balt11t, Id really like to know why you ninja voted on FakePromises yesterday at 8:27, yet your last post was at 6:29.
Declare your votes in the thread when you make them, and actually have them backed up with some reason.
Did I not back my position against FakePromise explicitly beforehand? Why should I repeat myself, when he was (in my opinion) the only true candidate for lynching? As I mentioned earlier, for a random lynch, 30% success is not very good odds, and I was prominent in advocating my dislike for his plans, which seemed rather scummy.
OK, but why not vote for him when you made those statements? rather then voting 8 hours later after hes nigh-on-dead already.
And again, make sure you say it in the thread. Otherwise it looks as though you're trying to sneak a vote through when no one is looking.
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 13:22 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 13:00 SacredSystem wrote: still no one has explained this to me yet im mafia for accusing fakepromise after he agreed to 30% odds and for saying that it was a bad idea from a townes perspective to hold a random lynch
Doing these things is not inherently scummy, its how you did them. You advocated patience and then jumped onto FakePromise a couple posts later. You stated that 'it was conclusive!', yet your reasoning was poor and bandwagony. I dont dare to assume the inner workings of zarepaths head, but I doubt he was ever going to follow through with the random lynch plan. It was a discussion starter... and guess what, it worked. Your actions since my first case was written aren't flattering either: -More discrediting of zarepath -a giant OMGUS at Chocolate -You state 'im most suspicious of zelblade', then in your next post THREE MINUTES LATER, you state hes probably noobie town. -And the out-of-nowhere question 'Are the mafia told who the other mafia members are at the start of the first day, or only at night?' just stinks of 'oh look guys, i really don't understand how the mafia team works, I couldn't possibly be mafia'. i was advocating having the patience of coming to a logical conclusion, go back to that time frame and look at how many posts run rampant with crazy conspiracies
now listen you still havnt explained this to me yet, how is fakepromise agreeing to 30% odds that go against the town poor reasoning for accusing him of mafia
i still am suspicious of zelblade as are many other townsmen, he has done nothing but apologize
and then THREE MINUTES LATER, after i had finished my post, i read the post from chocolate who accuses me of having confusing yet concise posts ~_~ as for someone who is bandwagon, look at the votes for that day http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=306091¤tpage=2#23 chocolate actually looks like a bandwagon
also the reason why i asked if the mafia knew each other from the start or only after night, is because once it hit night it occurred to me that i didnt know, it also wasnt in the rules and a detail like that seems like it would be pretty important
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In line with line with what i said earlier, i would really like if people would cast preliminary votes as early as possible, so i will put mine down on zelblade now. Now only is he the one that i feel looks consistently scummy, he also started to lurk hardcore as soon as he was out of the spotlight. Also, he is the core of my greater mafie theory i explained in my post above in the spoiler above (btw, i would still like to see other people theories on how the FakePromise Lynch evolved, or regarding my theory)
Last, but not least, we are still missing town/mafia reads (with arguments!) from balt11t, Adam4167 and zelblade and probably some other people. This does not need to interrupt the discussion.
##vote zelblade
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An other thing, i think it would be HIGHLY helpful if everyone would ALWAYS declare his votes in this thread, just to make it easier to read.
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You advocated patience then did a complete 180 later when nothing changed in between.
Everything you just asked I went through in my case or the follow up post on this page, go read that, I'm not repeating it again.
If Chocolate is suspicious for being on the back of the bandwagon, why isn't Simberto? why isnt balt11t?
If you claim to not know if mafia knew each other or not, why were you claiming zarepath was suspicious for defending FakePromise? More inconsistencies
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I am in the middle of school during the deadline, and as such cannot post close to it unlike you guys. As for not posting throughout the night, some crap came up and I couldnt find the time to catch up with the thread. Will be alot more active from now on.
Catching up on the thread now, will post thoughts in a bit.
Also I believe that since there was no kill last night, the person who got hit (protected by a medic/vet power) should claim that they were shot. Mafia already know who they shot anyways, and it does help to confirm you assuming no one couter claims the shot. Since town shouldnt in any case lie about this anyway, if no one counter claims the shot, we can assume that that person is very likely town.
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On January 28 2012 14:10 Adam4167 wrote: You advocated patience then did a complete 180 later when nothing changed in between.
Everything you just asked I went through in my case or the follow up post on this page, go read that, I'm not repeating it again.
If Chocolate is suspicious for being on the back of the bandwagon, why isn't Simberto? why isnt balt11t?
If you claim to not know if mafia knew each other or not, why were you claiming zarepath was suspicious for defending FakePromise? More inconsistencies
you didnt cover anything
and why wouldnt zarepath be suspicious of defending fakepromise you tell me why anyone would defend fakepromise
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You weren't sure if mafia knew who each other were, so how could you use one player defending another as evidence that both of them are scum?
Your evasiveness is obvious. But indulge me, who are the 4 mafia in this game?
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On January 28 2012 14:42 Adam4167 wrote: You weren't sure if mafia knew who each other were, so how could you use one player defending another as evidence that both of them are scum?
Your evasiveness is obvious. But indulge me, who are the 4 mafia in this game?
when i asked i was clarifing
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I was the one hit last night.
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I believe that SacredSystem seems scummy.
+ Show Spoiler +if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia also what does this even mean????? I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing so now tell me why would you not be mafia?
He starts off this post by stating that he is "most suspisous" of me.
Then, he goes on to quote Chocolate, before accusing him out of nowhere, simply because Chocolate called him out for his unclear posts, and called him suspisious. This seems really wierd to me to jump out like that and call someone scum because you were attacked. He also blames him for jumping onto the fakepromise vote, when he himself, as adam has pointed out, jumped on it too.
Furthermore, his next post just a couple of minutes later says this :
+ Show Spoiler + that was all directed at chocolate
and since zelblade has been suspicious of chocolate this whole time maybe he all of his apologies are just the result of him being a noob
Firstly, when have i been suspisious of chocolate at all? The only person i have stated that i am suspisious off is fakepromise, simply because before i had to go he was the only one who seemed suspisious to me. This statement doesnt make sense at all and I dont even know what it means.
Next, this is a clear contradiction. Just because a new targert has jumped up, he instantly forgets about his suspisions about me and states that I might just be a noob. Going from "most suspicious" to "maybe just noob" in a couple of minutes seems really wierd to me, especially with nothing in between these minutes except that he has found a new targert to attack.
Looking through the rest of his filter, we see him advocating not jumping to counclusions, while he himself does it and jumps onto fakepromise for the 30% slip.
Throughout the rest of his earlier posts, most of them are spent attacking fakepromise, and look at this;
Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. you are bluffing how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here
He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town.
Overall, I believe that SacredSystem seems to be quite scummy at this point, and he is definately my strongest scum read, with him pushing fakepromise so hard, yet blaming people and calling them scummy for jumping onto a wagon that he is on - in fact, one that he strongly pushes for. His sudden out of the blue attack onto chocolate for "labeling me(SS) as mafia" definately throws on more suspision onto him.
##vote: SacredSystem
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On January 28 2012 15:35 DoYouHas wrote: I was the one hit last night.
Do you think that it would be a good idea to reveal if you were a vet or protected by a medic?
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Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.)
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No, it would not be a good idea to reveal it. The only additional knowledge we gain by that is that a medic is in the game, vs a veteran, which is infinitely more useful for mafia to know then for us. If mafia knew it was a veteran action vs a confirmed medic, that means that they don't have to fear medics safing their target as much, while if we confirm a medic, they always know that the medic is out there. Thus, by not revealing it, we boost the efficiency of our medic if we have one, and don't lose anything if we don't.
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I think it is time I made my real suspicions clear and defend myself against CosmosXAM's belief that zarepath and I are working together. I'll deal with them in order.
First, I went after zelblade (after sl0osh did). I have not changed my stance on him, his first posts were scummy and his absence did not help. However he has promised to be much more active today so I am at least willing to see his new posts before condemning him.
Second, I went after CosmosXAM. He has largely alleviated my suspicion of him due to better posting and most importantly, due to staunch opposition to the person I consider to be the scummiest in the game.
That person is zarepath. I am going to write an exhaustive post listing all the reasons why this is true shortly. But for right now, when we are cataloging suspicions I felt I needed to get mine out there sooner rather than later. Included in this will be my answer to Simberto's questioning of how we saw the FakePromise situation play out. I am absolutely confident that zarepath is scum, and I am reasonably confident that he is the godfather. You backed off too easily sl0osh. Your analysis wasn't wrong it just came too late in the day to swing the town. Also, some of the most incriminating posts of zarepath were his responses to your accusation. I want to present this case right, so I'm going to start writing it tonight before bed and possibly finish it when I get up.
Third, I had been leaning gradually to a scum read for SacredSystem. However, in reviewing his filter I noticed that in multiple posts he has been openly opposed to zarepath. This at the very least gives him benefit of the doubt to me.
Lastly, because I am so certain of zarepath's guilt, I think we need to take a hard look at people who both helped pull suspicion off of zarepath after sl0osh's post and bandwagoned FakePromise, regardless of their activity level.
And now to address CosmosXAM's suspicion of my collaborating with zarepath. I did not say this in my post deflecting suspicion from FakePromise to CosmosXAM, but core to my conviction that FakePromise was innocent was the premise that zarepath was guilty. I believe that zarepath spotted the trend towards a FakePromise lynch and proceeded to put himself in an all-win situation where no matter the outcome he would come off looking good. I never would have made my post 'defending' FakePromise if I had not made this connection.
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 15:40 zelblade wrote:I believe that SacredSystem seems scummy. + Show Spoiler +if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia also what does this even mean????? I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing so now tell me why would you not be mafia? He starts off this post by stating that he is "most suspisous" of me. Then, he goes on to quote Chocolate, before accusing him out of nowhere, simply because Chocolate called him out for his unclear posts, and called him suspisious. This seems really wierd to me to jump out like that and call someone scum because you were attacked. He also blames him for jumping onto the fakepromise vote, when he himself, as adam has pointed out, jumped on it too. Furthermore, his next post just a couple of minutes later says this : + Show Spoiler + that was all directed at chocolate
and since zelblade has been suspicious of chocolate this whole time maybe he all of his apologies are just the result of him being a noob
Firstly, when have i been suspisious of chocolate at all? The only person i have stated that i am suspisious off is fakepromise, simply because before i had to go he was the only one who seemed suspisious to me. This statement doesnt make sense at all and I dont even know what it means. Next, this is a clear contradiction. Just because a new targert has jumped up, he instantly forgets about his suspisions about me and states that I might just be a noob. Going from "most suspicious" to "maybe just noob" in a couple of minutes seems really wierd to me, especially with nothing in between these minutes except that he has found a new targert to attack. Looking through the rest of his filter, we see him advocating not jumping to counclusions, while he himself does it and jumps onto fakepromise for the 30% slip. Throughout the rest of his earlier posts, most of them are spent attacking fakepromise, and look at this; Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. you are bluffing how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town. Overall, I believe that SacredSystem seems to be quite scummy at this point, and he is definately my strongest scum read, with him pushing fakepromise so hard, yet blaming people and calling them scummy for jumping onto a wagon that he is on - in fact, one that he strongly pushes for. His sudden out of the blue attack onto chocolate for "labeling me(SS) as mafia" definately throws on more suspision onto him. ##vote: SacredSystem
zarepath never contributed any analysis and he constantly wanted to mislead the any analysis that was being discussed
you seem to use the term bandwagon quite loosely i created the wagon to lynch fakepromise and why wouldnt i? this is like the 3rd post where i have asked you to explain why a townsmen wouldnt be suspicious of him, and none of you have yet to do so
i never supported lurkers, i attacked the guy who avoided real analysis
but speaking of bandwagon this appears to be the second one you have jumped on. first you used my logic to vote on fakepromise, and then condemn me for doing so and then you jump on me you have done nothing to prove that would be mafia, which im not yet claim that i am right after adam laid the ground work for you
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On January 28 2012 16:42 SacredSystem wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 15:40 zelblade wrote:I believe that SacredSystem seems scummy. + Show Spoiler +if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia also what does this even mean????? I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing so now tell me why would you not be mafia? He starts off this post by stating that he is "most suspisous" of me. Then, he goes on to quote Chocolate, before accusing him out of nowhere, simply because Chocolate called him out for his unclear posts, and called him suspisious. This seems really wierd to me to jump out like that and call someone scum because you were attacked. He also blames him for jumping onto the fakepromise vote, when he himself, as adam has pointed out, jumped on it too. Furthermore, his next post just a couple of minutes later says this : + Show Spoiler + that was all directed at chocolate
and since zelblade has been suspicious of chocolate this whole time maybe he all of his apologies are just the result of him being a noob
Firstly, when have i been suspisious of chocolate at all? The only person i have stated that i am suspisious off is fakepromise, simply because before i had to go he was the only one who seemed suspisious to me. This statement doesnt make sense at all and I dont even know what it means. Next, this is a clear contradiction. Just because a new targert has jumped up, he instantly forgets about his suspisions about me and states that I might just be a noob. Going from "most suspicious" to "maybe just noob" in a couple of minutes seems really wierd to me, especially with nothing in between these minutes except that he has found a new targert to attack. Looking through the rest of his filter, we see him advocating not jumping to counclusions, while he himself does it and jumps onto fakepromise for the 30% slip. Throughout the rest of his earlier posts, most of them are spent attacking fakepromise, and look at this; Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. you are bluffing how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town. Overall, I believe that SacredSystem seems to be quite scummy at this point, and he is definately my strongest scum read, with him pushing fakepromise so hard, yet blaming people and calling them scummy for jumping onto a wagon that he is on - in fact, one that he strongly pushes for. His sudden out of the blue attack onto chocolate for "labeling me(SS) as mafia" definately throws on more suspision onto him. ##vote: SacredSystem zarepath never contributed any analysis and he constantly wanted to mislead the any analysis that was being discussed you seem to use the term bandwagon quite loosely i created the wagon to lynch fakepromise and why wouldnt i? this is like the 3rd post where i have asked you to explain why a townsmen wouldnt be suspicious of him, and none of you have yet to do so i never supported lurkers, i attacked the guy who avoided real analysis but speaking of bandwagon this appears to be the second one you have jumped on. first you used my logic to vote on fakepromise, and then condemn me for doing so and then you jump on me you have done nothing to prove that would be mafia, which im not yet claim that i am right after adam laid the ground work for you
You claim that zarepath never contributed any analysis. But what sort of analysis have YOU provided?
Looking through your filter, all your attacks are flimsy.
First is of course the fakepromise incident. All the analysis that you provide here is basically that he decided to agree with the 30% lynch, and that he was definately mafia due to that and that alone. You ask why a townie wouldnt be suspicious of him, and although that one statement is really scummy, you simply concluded that he was 100% mafia without giving him a chance to respond and explain his reasons as to why he believed that it was a good idea. He could have been thinking of something we havent thought of, and the fact that you jumped on him so eagerly seems like you were looking for an easy mislynch.
Next you are asked who you think is mafia. You start out the post responding to it by saying that you were suspicious of me. Thats fine, only that your reasoning was something that had already been stated many others in the thread. This seems to me that you are, once again, attacking the easy targert and trying to get another easy mislynch.
However, upon reading chocolates post, you simply jump onto him and attack him, as i have stated, out of the blue simply because he thought that you were suspicious. You think that he is mafia, but you do not provide any sort of analysis at all besides that he jumped onto a wagon you created and pushed for, and for having suspicions on you.
Also, your posts are confusing, and this is because of the way you phrase your posts. For example, I can barely understand your last paragraph in this post. If possible, can you clarify for me what you mean by this:
+ Show Spoiler +but speaking of bandwagon this appears to be the second one you have jumped on. first you used my logic to vote on fakepromise, and then condemn me for doing so and then you jump on me you have done nothing to prove that would be mafia, which im not yet claim that i am right after adam laid the ground work for you
My point is that if you want me to not think that you are scum, do more than simply push people for analysis and attacking everyone that is attacking you. Post some decent analysis on who you think is scum with reasons other than OMG he attacked me he must be scum.
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On another note, looking through SS's filter this post of zarepath's which he quoted really jumps out to me.
On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation.
What i think is wierd is the "feel free to investigate me at night part". Why would he want a DT to check him, when he himself even admits that "it will be a waste of an investigation"? I dont think that town would ever request a DT to check him unless there was a high chance that he was going to be lynched the next day, as doing so would use an action which could be better used on a scummy player to try and weed out scum. Finding scum is definately more important, IMO, than confirming 1 townie.
As such, this causes me to agree with DoYouHas that perhaps zerpath is indeed the godfather fishing for DT checks, enabling himself to get the status of "confirmed town", whilst wasting a DT check at the same time.
Also the way that SS attacks zarepath makes me feel that they probably arent on the same team. I mean, if they were both mafia, why attack each other that way at that time?
I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia.
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Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment.
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I don't feel a need to defend myself against DoYouHas' absolute certainty of my guilt until he provides some actual analysis.
I don't know that SS and zelblade are on the same side (ie, if one's mafia, I'm not convinced that the other is bussing him.)
Cosmos's posts still seem quite vague and empty.
SS did do something interesting: he asked when mafia find out who each other are. And this is after he'd already voted.
It seems odd to do an entire day of analysis and not actually know when mafia find out who the other mafia is. It seems more like a false tell or bluff -- if he doesn't know the answer to that, he surely can't be mafia, right?
But the timing of the question was very off.
For this reason, my preliminary vote is for SS
##Vote SacredSystem
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On January 28 2012 15:45 zelblade wrote: Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.) No. The mafia know what roles the mafia have and that's it.
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EBWOP:
Bolded my vote for clarity for people skimming the thread:
##Vote SacredSystem
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I'm going to be much less active over weekends, as I work part-time, and there are always various shenanigans to be had. My apologies in advance.
I'll be back in the afternoon with my updated reads and suspicions.
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I highly encourage a rereading of sl0osh's post and zarepath's responses before getting into this. That being said, let's start with this statement of zarepath's. Zarepath's filter.
On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote: I've done nothing but further town discussion, point towards suspicious people, contribute actual analytical defense of people that others are accusing, trying to aright the lynchpath -- etc.
Let's move past zarepath's first post. All it did was paint a target on zelblade and I will get to that later. After this there is a string of 6 posts which do nothing. For the most part he is pointing out flaws in MidnightGladius' plans but the important thing here is that a large part of what we have used to establish him as an 'active' player did nothing to 'further town discussion'. Not only that, in these posts he is placing himself in the position of a provider of information, not a searcher for information.
The second part of the quoted statement, 'point towards suspicious people, contribute actual analytical defense of people that others are accusing, trying to aright the lynchpath' are all summed up in a single one of his posts. His WIFOM defense of FakePromise. + Show Spoiler +On January 26 2012 22:00 zarepath wrote:I do NOT think that FakePromise is a mafia. Let's look at his (quite limited) post history: Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 13:50 FakePromise wrote:Poor Qatol, had such potential 4/13 = 30.7% chance of killing mafia so random lynch seems good for me If he's mafia, he runs these numbers through his head and goes, "Hey, that's great for us!" OR, he notes that I picked zelblade, and thinks to himself, "Hey, he's not a mafia, that's great for us!" So his first response is to immediately endorse the lynching of a townie... ...by suggesting that the lynching odds are good? That would be the worst, most obvious mafia move possible. And that's ALL he says. Doesn't respond at all to the point of my failed plan, which was to get information based on who likes it and who doesn't, and then use the flip to confirm one way or the other. All he likes is the percentage. AWFUL mafia play. However, saying the same thing as a townie is just as bad of a play, if not worse. Either way, let's establish that he's being careless. Let's continue. Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 12:18 FakePromise wrote: I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4:7 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted. How does he defend his 30% endorsement? "I guess I was wrong." Then he follows that up with a complaint that people are trying to random lynch him. Also: "Now that I think of it..." as if he was just now running the numbers, which seems like an outright lie and an obvious escape route. The last part of his defense -- that he wonders why Sacred is after him because of some random timing on what he was reading(?) -- doesn't make any sense at all. It's the most scatterbrained defense imaginable. Now think about this if he's mafia. He makes a horrible, obvious first post right at the beginning of the game. There are three other mafia players who are going to PM him and say "look, that was the scummiest thing I've ever seen. You need to back off of that real carefully." They may even tell him what to say. They're sure as heck not going to let him post excuses like "just because I happened to be reading zelblade's post" or "now that I think about it..." (Disclaimer: the other mafia may be just as dense, but that's not a good assumption to make. Or Fake just read all the PMs and the thread at once, bugged out, and made an awful response.) If he IS mafia, this is the worst possible way to defend yourself of the fact -- lashing out, completely switching your stance, no explanation of your thought process, and something that doesn't even make sense at all. Either way, it's careless. But if he were mafia, I don't think he'd have a careless retraction like this, one that comes so late in the thread. It would be far earlier, with all the other mafia PMing him saying "what's going on? get over here and defend yourself, they're getting real restless and I sure as heck ain't going to defend your post." I think this post would be much better crafted defense, and would probably point out someone more suspicious than him to try to throw off the scent. Now his third and latest post: Really? As a mafia, I suppose this is a potential defense: seeming so confident in your innocence that nobody should have any accusations against you worth responding to. I don't see any guilt in that post. But really? Everyone is all for lynching you based on a single offhand belief that you made at the beginning with no back-up or reasoning. You don't know what you're supposed to respond to? Is that even possible? He doesn't see a need to defend himself anymore, even after his awful, scattered defense in his second post. This belies an utterly clueless view of the game. Additionally, who here has rushed to defend him (other than myself at this point)? Nobody. There are a couple of moves that could be seen as misdirections -- people voting for zelblade and Cosmon, but those votes made some basic sense. He's all alone in his defense because nobody else is on his team. (Knowingly, anyway.) He is alone in a corner, consistently clueless, and apparently sees no need to defend himself. What I'm saying is that it seems more likely to me that he is just a really awful townie. As an alternative, I suggest voting for Cosmon: Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:39 CosmosXAM wrote: sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion First post is an apology Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 07:04 CosmosXAM wrote: If I had to say I would probably go with fakepromise because of how he was so quick to agree. Also Chocolate seems mildly suspicious because of his quick jump to voting straight for me based on little information Bandwagons on the popular vote based on little information, and then also throws suspicion on Chocolate because Chocolate's voting for Cosmos on little information(?) Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 09:04 CosmosXAM wrote:I find it a bit odd your jump from On January 25 2012 14:55 SacredSystem wrote: However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
to straight up voting for him, I mean sure he now has two votes going for him but you said that you wanted to wait for more information and based on him only posting once and your points about him just being copy&paste what other people had said earlier and not offering any new information or opinions I find your vote to be very bandwagon-ey. And then he accuses SacredSystem of bandwagoning on Fake (even though that's exactly was Cosmos did). The 'analytical defense' of FakePromise can be summed up in two statements. If FakePromise was mafia he would not be playing so poorly, and if FakePromise was mafia his team would not let him play so poorly. Instead he spreads this argument out, making assumption after assumption about how the mafia is operating. This confidence in how the mafia is acting this game makes me think he DOES actually know how the mafia are acting this game. And then he drops this little gem. + Show Spoiler +On January 26 2012 13:21 FakePromise wrote: What am I suppose to respond to? Really? As a mafia, I suppose this is a potential defense: seeming so confident in your innocence that nobody should have any accusations against you worth responding to. I don't see any guilt in that post. What purpose does this statement have in a defense of FakePromise? Absolutely none. In fact he is providing evidence against his own point. He states quite clearly that FakePromise provided a defense he can only see working if he was mafia and then immediately says, "I don't see any guilt in that post." Why write this part at all? Because of the contradictory nature of this statement I looked at the wording and I believe that 'As a mafia, I suppose this is a potential defense' was a scumslip.
This is also the only time that he actually 'points towards suspicious people', (his 7th post has suspicion towards 3 people, but instead of asking them to defend themselves, he asks 2 inactives to give their opinions on those 3. So I am not counting it as 'pointing to suspicious people') which hardly warrants its position on his list of "all I have done". As for correcting the lynchpath, I will now get into my explanation of what surrounded zarepath's defense of FakePromise and FakePromise's lynching.
I think zarepath was using Simberto (possibly the most influential person day1) as a signpost for his plans. Let's look at a statement that zarepath makes a couple times after sl0osh's attack. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:48 zarepath wrote: and risked my neck a second time according to my honest analysis even when it would've been easier to simply bandwagon on Fake if I were mafia. I've only risked myself when it would've been super easy to blend back into the quasi-lurkers
On January 27 2012 11:45 zarepath wrote: If I were mafia, it would've looked even better for me to just climb on the FakePromise Lynching Wagon so the doubt just goes onto Simberto and everyone else. On January 27 2012 12:24 zarepath wrote: Look, I'm not mafia. I don't know why mafia would behave the way I've behaved this entire first day.
He states that if he was mafia the best thing he could do would be to bandwagon onto FakePromise. This is a false statement. A better thing to do is to place yourself as the only "defender" (air quotes because the defense was weak) of the innocent townie and then point to another inactive. If he does that then we can't use his voting record against him day2, he looks clean if we kill FakePromise in spite of what his defense, and he can't be accused of bandwagoning since he provided the first real case against CosmosXAM even if that is who we kill. It is an all-win situation.
Here is what I think happened. After zarepath notices the trend towards a FakePromise lynch, multiple mentions, 3 votes. He waits for Simberto's vote after which there is a good chance that his defense of FakePromise is not going to change the lynchpath, especially if he has other mafia helping. He doesn't even add a vote to CosmosXAM right away in order to make his point. Yet again, he waits for Simberto to change his vote before zarepath commits and votes for CosmosXAM. And by the way, he already agrees with this analysis. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote: Honestly, the least-suspicous timing would have been for me to vote exactly when I posted.
And why did he pick CosmosXAM to go after in the first place? Well, Simberto had already voiced his suspicion of CosmosXAM twice, making him quite a safe target. This was going to work without a hitch until sl0osh attacked zarepath. Zarepath goes into overdrive defending himself and as soon as Simberto switches his vote back to FakePromise there is an instant change in zarepath's attitude. He is RELAXED. Soon to follow he posts 2 short messages that I can only describe as bantering with FakePromise who was then resigned to death. And I'm not the only one to recognize the strangeness of this exchange. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 11:56 slOosh wrote: Anyone else see this scripted dialogue? He is not concerned that that FakePromise, a person whom he is certain is town, is about to be lynched. He only has 3 things on his mind: relief that he dodged the bullet, making sure that everyone remembers he defended FakePromise, and pointing out that this is a very un-mafialike thing to do.
Ok, moving on to my direct attack of zarepath's defense. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote: But honestly, if you were to decide that any other active player were mafia simply because you read a thread about active mafia, you would find similar "inconsistencies" that are simply misunderstandings in semantics.
There are numerous others who only accuse without good argument, refuse to defend themselves, or don't even post at all. While a wall of text analysis is impressive, it's operating on assumptions and while it might feel cool to be suspicious of an active town contributor, you really have nothing to go on here.
Zarepath defends himself on the virtue of being active alone. The fact is your inconsistencies and posting led both sl0osh and me to suspect you more than 'any other active player'. So not only is this a bad defense (also one that zarepath disagrees with + Show Spoiler +On January 26 2012 04:28 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 04:11 MidnightGladius wrote: Other indicators include his unwillingness to pressure lurkers, low-content posters, and inactive players. He argues that this would only force mafia to post more than the least-active innocent players, but that's exactly what we want: more content from players who would be most content saying nothing. The more they say, the more they're likely to slip up and reveal access to hidden information.
Forcing mafia to post more is always good, granted. But if the only reason they're posting more is so that we eliminate one of our obviously inactive townies, it would be better to focus our lynch on an active, suspicious person. The inactive townies will get replaced by active players and then we'll know who was lurking and who was just inactive. So yes, let's pressure the inactives and see what happens. But I would much rather lynch an active suspicious person than someone who probably just AFK'd a couple days. ) He follows it with by lashing out at sl0osh, "while it might feel cool to be suspicious of an active town contributor"
Then there are these parts. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote: Well, that was surprising, to say the least. Sloosh's post is quite rigorous. I think your intentions are good, but you're barking up the wrong tree.
I'm impressed with how thoroughly you've examined my posts. But honestly, if you were to decide that any other active player were mafia simply because you read a thread about active mafia, you would find similar "inconsistencies" that are simply misunderstandings in semantics. Zarepath is surprised and impressed by sl0osh's analysis, and feels it is quite rigorous. He also agrees that the inconsistencies are present. Then he uses a euphemism 'barking up the wrong tree' which softens his 'you're wrong' statement. All of this makes me think he is mafia.
And look at this part + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote + Zelblade points out that town has 2 mislynches to Lylo (which I think is unhelpful information but that is beside the point). Zarepath uses this information. If you use someones info, it means that they are contributing. He ends the post saying that we should go after suspicious people, namely Zelblade.
He uses information provided by someone who he thinks as suspicious. He calls for pressure on zelblade that he does not create himself .
I'm the ORIGINAL pressure on zelblade. All zelblade pressure originated from me calling for his lynch at the very beginning. This is a perfectly true statement that does nothing to refute sl0osh's points.
I have a few more small points but this post is already too long so I'm going to end it with why I think that zarepath could be the godfather. It is mostly based on this post + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. There is no reason why a townie would ever post this. He is asking to be role checked and pointing out that this would confirm him. This is possibly the most blatantly false statement he has made all game. Not only would it NOT confirm him due to the possibility of a godfather in the game, but he is asking the DT to intentionally waste a night confirming a townie. The betrays a sense of self importance that a townie would not have, but a godfather would. This on top of my belief that he put himself in the center of the FakePromise situation leads me to believe he is the godfather.
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Based on my earlier views and new analysis by others I am still 100% backing a vote on zarepath so since it is a new day I continue that vote. ##Vote: zarepath
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Another thing on zarepath that I would like to emphasis (might have been pointed out before) but after looking at the voting thread we can see that he has never been the first person to vote for someone, now this in itself is not a big reason to be suspicious but on top of all the other evidence it becomes more pertinant.
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i agree with doyouhas i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me? i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1
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On January 29 2012 04:50 SacredSystem wrote: i agree with doyouhas i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me? i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1
Are you confusing me with zarepath or something? I am the one that attacked you, not him.
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Argh need to go sleep now, its 4am here. Will read through the new case on zarepath and take a closer look at his filter tomorrow.
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On January 29 2012 04:50 SacredSystem wrote: i agree with doyouhas i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me? i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1
I think that zarepath's attacks on you are convenient because of previous posts made already establishing you as suspicious. His reason given for voting you is not a bad one, but at the same time it is another WIFOM argument based on a hunch. I find two things strange about it. The first is that he had sources posted before him that have more solid grounds for suspecting you that he did not refer to. And the second is that he is voting for you when the 1 of the 2 strongest cases against you is coming from zelblade, a person whom he thinks we should be circling the wagons against day2, and this does not give him pause.
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On January 29 2012 05:07 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2012 04:50 SacredSystem wrote: i agree with doyouhas i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me? i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1 Are you confusing me with zarepath or something? I am the one that attacked you, not him.
yes i did confuse you two, sorry
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I'm going to be away for about 6-8 hours starting in about 1 hour.
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Stuff took longer then expected, will go to sleep now. Expect contribution more on my usual level tommorow when i am awake and sober.
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Posting soon (within 15mins.)
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Sorry about this, took longer to grab all the info.
First, I am almost certain that there are multiple mafia posting against each other. Compare day 1 and day 2 posts. We have 1 lynch. Remember that guys. A terrible thing would be using all our attention and focus on trying to find all the mafia rather than killing the mafia we have already found.
On January 28 2012 17:35 Simberto wrote: Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment. I suggest throwing that possibility out since DoYouHas never had any suspicion on him and it makes no sense for mafia to waste a shot to enforce that. But to my main point:
So check this out. DoYouHas claimed to be hit last night. Ok. So why would mafia shoot him? Why not me or Simberto, the people who most people had a town read on?
Here's an observation of day 1, with a focus on slOosh(me), DoYouHas and Zarepath. I will ignore other stuff. (No need to open the links, just references if you need reminding) - I push for Zarepath Lynch - Zarepath defends himself - I continue the push, as I am still suspicious - Zarepath defends himself again - I back off to pressure lurkers
Now look at DoYouHas. Look at the voting thread and see where his vote lies. It is on Zarepath along with me and FakePromise and CosmoXAM.
He still holds a suspicion against Zarepath before the day lynch, whereas I do not (at least openly).
On January 28 2012 16:23 DoYouHas wrote: First, I went after zelblade (after sl0osh did). I have not changed my stance on him, his first posts were scummy and his absence did not help. However he has promised to be much more active today so I am at least willing to see his new posts before condemning him.
Conclusion: Mafia target the only one still suspicious of Zarepath. They have so much to gain from it that it makes sense that they would shoot him, and not me or Simberto. With all the attention on us two, it is more probable that any medic attention (if it existed) would not be on him. By killing him there is no one left to suspect Zarepath, who has established himself as an active person in the least, and I suspect the general notion of him being town will pervade our minds.
No one has counterclaimed. DoYouHas was shot. With great analysis (which he probably started before the day ended) he attacks Zarepath. The night action makes sense.
This is enough for me. A second party look at the situation helps me see much more clearer how suspicious Zarepath is, and there is great harmony with this and the night action.
##Vote Zarepath
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There are 12 of 13 people left and 4 of 4 mafia left. That means there are 8 of us.
5. This game follows Extended Majority Lynch Rules. Majority = number of total voters/2 (rounded down) + 1. Unlike in traditional majority lynch, the lynch is NOT decided the moment that majority is reached. Instead, only the final vote count matters. If there is no majority at the deadline, the day ends with a no-lynch. Non-voters will be modkilled for failure to vote
We need 7 to lynch. We must not be divided. We need to unite and lynch. Right now those on Sacred, please consider the analysis by DoYouHas and me, and move your votes to Zarepath.
I'm also very suspicious on Sacred, but like I said we only have 1 lynch to make. If they are both mafia, then Zarepath is a better lynch as he has more presence and credibility (relative to Sacred). So unless you think Zarepath isn't mafia, people move your votes.
Worst thing to have is a no-lynch as the lynch is the primary means of killing mafia. We don't have 4 vigi shots. If we want to win we need to use lynches to kill mafia.
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SlOosh, you are not being objective in your analysis. You start with your conclusion, that zarepath is scum and then work the details in around it to make it all fit. You even state you’re doing it here:
On January 29 2012 08:01 slOosh wrote: Here's an observation of day 1, with a focus on slOosh(me), DoYouHas and Zarepath. I will ignore other stuff.
Analysing night actions is an exercise in WIFOM. The only thing that can be taken from them is that they attempted to shoot at someone who was probably town. In this scenario we don’t even know for sure that that is the case, as no one died.
I sincerely doubt both SacredSystem and zarepath are mafia. I find SacredSystem almost surely to be mafia, whereas I see things in zarepaths filter that I wouldn't expect from a scum player. I feel we should lynch the guy who has been evasive, non-contributal and overly defensive (ie SacredSystem).
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On January 29 2012 08:57 Adam4167 wrote:SlOosh, you are not being objective in your analysis. You start with your conclusion, that zarepath is scum and then work the details in around it to make it all fit. You even state you’re doing it here: Show nested quote +On January 29 2012 08:01 slOosh wrote: Here's an observation of day 1, with a focus on slOosh(me), DoYouHas and Zarepath. I will ignore other stuff.
Analysing night actions is an exercise in WIFOM. The only thing that can be taken from them is that they attempted to shoot at someone who was probably town. In this scenario we don’t even know for sure that that is the case, as no one died. I sincerely doubt both SacredSystem and zarepath are mafia. I find SacredSystem almost surely to be mafia, whereas I see things in zarepaths filter that I wouldn't expect from a scum player. I feel we should lynch the guy who has been evasive, non-contributal and overly defensive (ie SacredSystem).
you keep saying that im non-contributal even though you know thats not true and all ive been able to do these last few days is defend my self from nonsense accusations like yours, also how have i been evasive in any way. i have respond to everything you have had to say
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On January 28 2012 14:10 Adam4167 wrote: You advocated patience then did a complete 180 later when nothing changed in between.
Everything you just asked I went through in my case or the follow up post on this page, go read that, I'm not repeating it again.
If Chocolate is suspicious for being on the back of the bandwagon, why isn't Simberto? why isnt balt11t?
If you claim to not know if mafia knew each other or not, why were you claiming zarepath was suspicious for defending FakePromise? More inconsistencies
On January 28 2012 14:42 Adam4167 wrote: You weren't sure if mafia knew who each other were, so how could you use one player defending another as evidence that both of them are scum?
Your evasiveness is obvious. But indulge me, who are the 4 mafia in this game?
Underlined for your convenience, since they were apparently missed the first time.
Your ‘contributions’ consist of 1 liners and jumping on whoever has votes on them already.
Your defences to me have amounted to you saying ‘you have no case’ over and over, even when I’m presenting one. You’ve had close to 96 hours since the game started to actually go scum-hunt and find someone who you consider to be scum. Instead you seem content to just sit around, and attack anyone who mentions you in their posts and stalling on giving up any substantial reads.
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On January 29 2012 09:41 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 14:10 Adam4167 wrote: You advocated patience then did a complete 180 later when nothing changed in between.
Everything you just asked I went through in my case or the follow up post on this page, go read that, I'm not repeating it again.
If Chocolate is suspicious for being on the back of the bandwagon, why isn't Simberto? why isnt balt11t?
If you claim to not know if mafia knew each other or not, why were you claiming zarepath was suspicious for defending FakePromise? More inconsistencies Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 14:42 Adam4167 wrote: You weren't sure if mafia knew who each other were, so how could you use one player defending another as evidence that both of them are scum?
Your evasiveness is obvious. But indulge me, who are the 4 mafia in this game? Underlined for your convenience, since they were apparently missed the first time. Your ‘contributions’ consist of 1 liners and jumping on whoever has votes on them already. Your defences to me have amounted to you saying ‘you have no case’ over and over, even when I’m presenting one. You’ve had close to 96 hours since the game started to actually go scum-hunt and find someone who you consider to be scum. Instead you seem content to just sit around, and attack anyone who mentions you in their posts and stalling on giving up any substantial reads.
If Chocolate is suspicious for being on the back of the bandwagon, why isn't Simberto? why isnt balt11t? theres more to suspicion then just a vote, 7 people voted for fakepromise, obviously not all of them could be mafia
do dont have a case, you have never had a case, i have submited who i think is mafia which you ignored in your statement that i only have posted one liners, yet you use my suspicion of chocolate to brand me mafia,
you are heavily contradicting yourself, and it doesn't help your case that i am in fact not mafia
i havent shown any ties to any players, i havent lurked, and i have analysed and further more i have drawn similar analysis as other players which you havent labeled as being mafia
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This was the post I asked the question about:
You were the one who brought up the days vote count as evidence of why chocolate is scummy. I asked you to clarify why specifically chocolate was scummy above others around him for being on that vote and you reply with:
’theres more to suspicion then just a vote, 7 people voted for fakepromise, obviously not all of them could be mafia’
So… you didn’t answer my question at all.
I am not contradicting myself anywhere. If you are not mafia… prove it. You seem to suspect chocolate… so go through his entire filter and highlight everything that is scummy – that is scum motivated.
Your last line is just pointless fluff, honestly. You think doing the same analysis as someone else and coming to the same answer proves your town? On the contrary, heavily implies that you are not.
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i was originally suspicious of chocolate for simply abandoning his chase on cosmos and then using my logic to jump on fakepromise when several people were already onboard to lynch him
however in light of recent events there seem to be a lot of odd posts and ideas that are floating around that have reduced my interest on chocolate
i am busy reading into the incentives and motives that other players have made and ill be posting my thoughts in a moment
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On January 29 2012 10:44 SacredSystem wrote: i was originally suspicious of chocolate for simply abandoning his chase on cosmos and then using my logic to jump on fakepromise when several people were already onboard to lynch him
however in light of recent events there seem to be a lot of odd posts and ideas that are floating around that have reduced my interest on chocolate
i am busy reading into the incentives and motives that other players have made and ill be posting my thoughts in a moment I was putting pressure on cosmos just to get him to post and get a good feel for how he responds under pressure. I wasn't trying to really convince everyone that he was mafia and worthy of a lynch. It was a little bit the same when I said I though you were mafia; I wanted to put you under pressure and see your reaction, but this time there was actually content to work off of. This isn't to say that I'm no longer suspicious of you, of course.
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-zarepath randomly lynching is a bad idea for the townes perspective yet you suggested it which doesnt make you look like a townesmen. However you then decided to defend Fakepromise, if you are mafia you would have known that FP was town, and it would have been very convenient for you to want to kill him as well. but then lets list all the people that you felt are mafia zelblade FakePromise CosmosXAM ----> this is a very interesting post which you would later contradict + Show Spoiler +On January 26 2012 04:41 zarepath wrote: EBWOP: My suspicions are also on FakePromise for the super quick agreement with specious reasoning, on zenblade for being rather jumpy and apologetic in the spotlight, and CosmosXAM's lack of activity (despite essentially declaring he would be super active at the beginning).
I'm not as concerned about balt and SacredSystem... I think the way they framed their accusations was more out of noobishness than it was a sign of confederacy. I'd like to hear what they both think about Fake, zen, and Cosmos. Bromancipate SacredSystem
-zelblade zelblade for the first day or so did nothing but apologize for being a noob, and then decides to hope on the fakepromise vote. he then goes on to accuse me for analyzing chocolate and for pushing fakepromise so hard Oh look a fakepromise attack from zelblade + Show Spoiler +On January 26 2012 18:02 zelblade wrote:At this point, fakepromise seems to be the most suspisious to me, not only for him advocating the random lynch but also for his responses to the pressure, and also how he has suddenly gone mia, without giving a proper response as to why he supported the random lynch, and his random accusation of sacredsystem eagerly wanting him to die doesnt really help. Show nested quote +I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted. Also @ fakepromise i am not really sure what you mean by this part.... I really dont understand the bolded part, what did u mean by that? He certainly isnt accusing you because you happened to be reading after i posted.... as that doesnt make sense.
oh look another + Show Spoiler +On January 26 2012 18:08 zelblade wrote:
As for my own vote, i am still waiting for fakepromise's proper response. If it doesnt come, my vote will probably go to him.
.........hey look i found one more + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 00:19 zelblade wrote: Since I have to go to sleep soon (in about half and hour) and fakepromise still hasnt posted any sort of defence yet, I will be voting for him for now. Will wake up to check the thread in probably about 7-8 hours or so when i wake up, though i probably can only skim through the thread as i have to rush to school than, but definately can change my vote if need be.
##vote FakePromise
however this seems to be a very overlooked post by zelblade, now the reason why i asked my question was because the last game of mafia i played was a live game, and the mafia did not know who was mafia till night, however i had assumed(bad thing to do) that in this game the mafia were aware of each other from the start, then once day time had ended and fakepromise was town, i became confused as to why zerpath decided to claim that FP was not mafia, this then made me really confused as to whether or not the mafia knew about each other from the start or not, which is why i ended up asking for clarification.
On January 28 2012 15:45 zelblade wrote: Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.)
if he were mafia wouldnt he know? as of now i am really tempted to lean in favor of zelblade just being a noob like he claims to be
Now the two most prominent suspects for mafia at the moment at Zerpath, who is the most prominent, and myself. Yet interestingly enough he is attacking me now we both cant be mafia, if we were we wouldnt accuse each other that leaves us with 3 choices, we both are town, i am mafia, zerpath is mafia
now my conclusion will heavily revolve around this post by zarepath
On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation.
why would a townesmen need to sink to that level to prove his innocence. Also if he were in fact a townie using the detectives powers on him would be a waste, the opportunity cost of displaying his innocence is huge
therefore i will set aside all my other suspicions are claim that zarepath is very likely mafia he has shown a disturbing lack of town incentives, ie random lynch, not going after fakepromise, and his claim for self investigation i look forward to how he defends against DoYouHas', sl0osh's, and my claim ##vote: zarepath
i just wrote a lot i hope i didnt make any mistakes, like confuse zelbalde and zerpath
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Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 15:45 zelblade wrote: Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.) if he were mafia wouldnt he know? as of now i am really tempted to lean in favor of zelblade just being a noob like he claims to be If he were mafia of course he would know. That's why people are so suspicious of his post, because they see it as a move to try to seem like he's not mafia.
Now the two most prominent suspects for mafia at the moment at Zerpath, who is the most prominent, and myself. Yet interestingly enough he is attacking me now we both cant be mafia, if we were we wouldnt accuse each other that leaves us with 3 choices, we both are town, i am mafia, zerpath is mafia
You actually could both be mafia. It is not unheard of for two mafia to go after each other so that once one dies the town "confirms" the other. This is known as bussing, and you can't overlook this as a possibility.
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I don't have a lot of time tonight (or much of tomorrow) to address everything individually, but one of the biggest scum reads people are making on me is my plea to be DT'd.
It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated. The only mislynch I could be 100% sure of is a lynch against myself. If I'm about to be voted off, of course I request that someone just wait and confirm I'm mafia before lynching me. I even noted that it would be a waste of an investigation, except that nobody seemed to believe me otherwise. It's a tool that could establish my innocence and save the town from a mislynch; it can also ascertain a mafia player, but as the guy up for vote, I'm going to selfishly suggest the one that keeps me in the game.
People are also WIFOMing that that request somehow suggests that I'm a Godfather, trying to set up a wasted investigation. Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather.
Oh, and also this: no, I'm not a godfather, and not mafia, either.
I'll do a better case-by-case response tomorrow afternoon/evening -- I am actually busier on weekends than during weekdays. Meanwhile I suggest an interrogation of anyone who hasn't contributed post-Night-1, like sloosh did last night. This is another opportunity for people to fly below the radar, and considering the rest of my defense isn't coming until tomorrow evening, it'll give us another data-font.
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On January 29 2012 12:36 Chocolate wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 15:45 zelblade wrote: Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.) if he were mafia wouldnt he know? as of now i am really tempted to lean in favor of zelblade just being a noob like he claims to be If he were mafia of course he would know. That's why people are so suspicious of his post, because they see it as a move to try to seem like he's not mafia. Show nested quote +Now the two most prominent suspects for mafia at the moment at Zerpath, who is the most prominent, and myself. Yet interestingly enough he is attacking me now we both cant be mafia, if we were we wouldnt accuse each other that leaves us with 3 choices, we both are town, i am mafia, zerpath is mafia
You actually could both be mafia. It is not unheard of for two mafia to go after each other so that once one dies the town "confirms" the other. This is known as bussing, and you can't overlook this as a possibility. How is this suspicious? I was just asking a question regarding the information mafia have. Sure, I could be mafia asking to look town. Or i could easily be a townie asking the host a question. I really dont see how u can see anything suspicious in that one question.
As for the lynch today, I have read through the cases on zarepath and i certainly see how he could be the mafia godfather, and DoYouHas makes some good points on how he jumps onto the SS bandwagon which I (whum he suspects to be mafia) am pushing. Honestly I will still prefer to lynch SacredSystem due to how much he is dodging questions. Either way, I wouldnt mind lynching either as I believe both could be mafia.
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Since I haven't been able to follow the thread over the past 24 hours or so (top of page 15), I'm going to be reading through the past 3 pages and posting some thoughts as I go. At the end, I'll conclude with my updated reads.
Simberto, I like your theory, and I'm going to keep an eye open to what those four say in response. Their voting pattern does seem conspicuous, and from their posts I also get the feeling that they're trying not to move too openly as a bloc when in fact their votes heavily suggest it.
On January 28 2012 12:45 Adam4167 wrote: I'm more inclined to think MidnightGladius is scum over CosmosXAM. This is WIFOM but it still generally applies, why would mafia highlight their own teammates inconsistencies?
MidnightGladius' pressure vote that stuck is far more suspicious to me.
What began as a pressure vote persisted, because FakePromise's play was so shady and unhelpful that I remained suspicious of him until he flipped as an innocent. While I do regret missing a mafia lynch, I would not hesitate to lynch a player in a similar position in a different game.
balt11t's filter has grown kind of disgusting. He still has not posted anything of value, and when prompted by Bromancipate, he just reiterated his previous excuses more extravagantly, including a promise that his contributions will "exponentially rise." That's all well and good, but the only player that he's even mentioned has been FakePromise. Considering that he has "been able to watch the game develop, just not post," why are the few posts that he makes so empty of content?
I'm getting a pretty strong town read from Adam4167. Not only because his predecessor was inactive (It seems that people with more supposedly involved roles would want to avoid being modkilled), but he consistently highlights errors in other players' reasoning, argues against confirmation bias from slOosh against zarepath, and has been rigorous in his activity overall. That said, I think that his view of zarepath might be rather misguided.
The case that DoYouHas posted on zarepath is rather convincing. I was suspicious of him from the start for his plan, but his actions afterwards reinforce my first impression. He didn't immediately back down from his plan, but rather waited until a large enough group of players had moved against FakePromise first. This segues neatly into DoYouHas' narrative. It let him back down gracefully and provided an easy mis-lynch in FakePromise. I wonder, though, what would have happened if he hadn't foolishly posted in support of the 30% lynch.
=========================================================================================
In summary, I'm getting scum reads on ballt11t and zarepath. Among them, I feel more strongly against zarepath, whom I will be voting against now. balt11t needs to start making posts, though, or I see no reason to keep him around much longer.
I agree with slOosh that it makes little sense for mafia to waste a shot to try and confirm DoYouHas, as they would be far closer to winning this game with an additional innocent dead (another mislynch and it's good game, as compared to giving us at least two more chances, with each subsequent lynch having better odds and more information available). This could be WIFOM, but when one option is just so much better, the mafia don't have as much to gain by choosing the alternative option. Thus, my innocent reads are on DoYouHas and Adam4167.
##Vote: zarepath
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On January 29 2012 08:57 Adam4167 wrote:SlOosh, you are not being objective in your analysis. You start with your conclusion, that zarepath is scum and then work the details in around it to make it all fit. You even state you’re doing it here: Show nested quote +On January 29 2012 08:01 slOosh wrote: Here's an observation of day 1, with a focus on slOosh(me), DoYouHas and Zarepath. I will ignore other stuff.
Analysing night actions is an exercise in WIFOM. The only thing that can be taken from them is that they attempted to shoot at someone who was probably town. In this scenario we don’t even know for sure that that is the case, as no one died. I sincerely doubt both SacredSystem and zarepath are mafia. I find SacredSystem almost surely to be mafia, whereas I see things in zarepaths filter that I wouldn't expect from a scum player. I feel we should lynch the guy who has been evasive, non-contributal and overly defensive (ie SacredSystem).
You are quite right that trying to do in depth analysis of night action motivations is an exercise in WIFOM. I have bolded your own mistake. It is wrong to think that all of an active player's posts are going to fit neatly into a box labeled scum. Especially with a player who has been as inconsistent as zarepath.
Let me make a couple points on the SacredSystem vs zarepath debate. SacredSystem has at the very least been consistent. He is either very aggressive or very defensive. (Yes, I realize that this is a contradiction with 1 part of his first post, but it is silly to condemn people for the generalized statements we all made in our first posts after day1.) He has stuck to his guns that his initial read on FakePromise was all he needed to justify lynching him. He has even become predictable in his overreaction OMGUS defenses. In fact the only thing, so far as I can tell, that has changed his style of posting was my stating that I was giving him the benefit of the doubt. This consistent style, even in the face of being voted against, is just another reason I am starting to lean town for sacred. The counterpoint to this is zarepath. He has been all over the place with his style of posting. I have already pointed out a ton of inconsistencies in his play this game.
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 29 2012 12:46 zarepath wrote: I don't have a lot of time tonight (or much of tomorrow) to address everything individually, but one of the biggest scum reads people are making on me is my plea to be DT'd.
It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated. The only mislynch I could be 100% sure of is a lynch against myself. If I'm about to be voted off, of course I request that someone just wait and confirm I'm mafia before lynching me. I even noted that it would be a waste of an investigation, except that nobody seemed to believe me otherwise. It's a tool that could establish my innocence and save the town from a mislynch; it can also ascertain a mafia player, but as the guy up for vote, I'm going to selfishly suggest the one that keeps me in the game.
People are also WIFOMing that that request somehow suggests that I'm a Godfather, trying to set up a wasted investigation. Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather.
Oh, and also this: no, I'm not a godfather, and not mafia, either.
I'll do a better case-by-case response tomorrow afternoon/evening -- I am actually busier on weekends than during weekdays. Meanwhile I suggest an interrogation of anyone who hasn't contributed post-Night-1, like sloosh did last night. This is another opportunity for people to fly below the radar, and considering the rest of my defense isn't coming until tomorrow evening, it'll give us another data-font.
"It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated." Actually it is absolutely right to say that a townie who thought it through would never ask to be rolechecked. The very possibility that a godfather is in the game means that an asked for rolecheck does not confirm innocence. It's a tool that would have failed to establish anything other than a wasted rolecheck.
As for my suggestions that you are the godfather, they are not WIFOM. I based these comments on your posting, not on speculation about the setup. Even if we are in a setup with no godfather, it does not change that you have acted as I think a godfather would.
Yet another defensive post with falsehoods. My case only grows stronger.
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On January 29 2012 12:47 zelblade wrote: As for the lynch today, I have read through the cases on zarepath and i certainly see how he could be the mafia godfather, and DoYouHas makes some good points on how he jumps onto the SS bandwagon which I (whum he suspects to be mafia) am pushing. Honestly I will still prefer to lynch SacredSystem due to how much he is dodging questions. Either way, I wouldnt mind lynching either as I believe both could be mafia. Then could I ask you to switch your vote onto Zarepath? We already have 5 on Zarepath and only 2 on Sacred, and we absolutely want to avoid splitting votes between two mafia.
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On January 29 2012 16:38 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2012 12:47 zelblade wrote: As for the lynch today, I have read through the cases on zarepath and i certainly see how he could be the mafia godfather, and DoYouHas makes some good points on how he jumps onto the SS bandwagon which I (whum he suspects to be mafia) am pushing. Honestly I will still prefer to lynch SacredSystem due to how much he is dodging questions. Either way, I wouldnt mind lynching either as I believe both could be mafia. Then could I ask you to switch your vote onto Zarepath? We already have 5 on Zarepath and only 2 on Sacred, and we absolutely want to avoid splitting votes between two mafia.
Since it seems like Sacred isnt going to get lynched today I will change my vote for now i guess.
##Unvote: SacredSystem ##Vote: Zarepath
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Balt11t and Bromancipate have disappeared again. I would also like to be reading more from CosmosXAM.
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I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes.
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Voting Count Update
SacredSystem - 2 Adam4167
zelblade zarepath
zelblade - 1 Simberto
zarepath - 6 DoYouHas CosmosXAM slOosh SacredSystem MidnightGladius zelblade
Non-Voters - 3 Bromancipate Chocolate balt11t
Voting ends at 03:00 GMT (+00:00) today.
Currently, the number of votes needed to lynch is: 5 out of 9.
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On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote: I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes. I'm voting for zarepath because he seems the most scummy out of everyone right now and because if we don't lynch today we'll be in a pretty bad position if mafia get a kill tonight.
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On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote: I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes.
I didnt attack SS because he was an "easy targert", but because he keeps contradicting himself, dodges many of adams questions, and his posts are also difficult to understand.
As for the coming out of lurking part, I really did have some IRL stuff come up, and I "came out of lurking" before the zarepath case appeared in the first place. Thus this point doesnt make sense and I really dont see what you mean by "stuff leading to me".
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Another thing - going to sleep now. Will also have something on tomorrow, so i might be away from the thread for a period of time. Probably will wake up in time to go through the thread before leaving though.
Saying this so that I dont get called out for "lurking" again.
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You guys are unreal with this lurker thing. Go ahead and read my post from yesterday. There is a reason I am playing a hydra - because I don't have enough time myself to play by myself. If I wasn't asked to play a Hydra, I wouldn't be playing at all. Beyond that, I haven't heard from Probu since the game started. Damn.
Adam has jumped up to my second most town read at the moment. I've watched him play in other games, such as Student Mafia, and it seems very similar to his play then, with better reads.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 03:09 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote: I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes. I didnt attack SS because he was an "easy targert", but because he keeps contradicting himself, dodges many of adams questions, and his posts are also difficult to understand. As for the coming out of lurking part, I really did have some IRL stuff come up, and I "came out of lurking" before the zarepath case appeared in the first place. Thus this point doesnt make sense and I really dont see what you mean by "stuff leading to me".
Does this sound like a mafia bus to anyone else? I'm curious to how you shed the suspicion that was onto you already into the second day of the game when there was a good majority of people starting to want to hang you. Why were you so reluctant to switch to Zarepath until you realized that there was no way he was going to get out of being killed? Just strikes me as odd since you seem to have absolutly no opinions on the current game at all.
He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town.
This really sounds like Chainsaw Defense to me, or, at least, the beginning of it. You're so reluctance to vote for Zarepath, until slOosh tells you directly to do it.
On January 29 2012 13:50 DoYouHas wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 29 2012 12:46 zarepath wrote: I don't have a lot of time tonight (or much of tomorrow) to address everything individually, but one of the biggest scum reads people are making on me is my plea to be DT'd.
It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated. The only mislynch I could be 100% sure of is a lynch against myself. If I'm about to be voted off, of course I request that someone just wait and confirm I'm mafia before lynching me. I even noted that it would be a waste of an investigation, except that nobody seemed to believe me otherwise. It's a tool that could establish my innocence and save the town from a mislynch; it can also ascertain a mafia player, but as the guy up for vote, I'm going to selfishly suggest the one that keeps me in the game.
People are also WIFOMing that that request somehow suggests that I'm a Godfather, trying to set up a wasted investigation. Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather.
Oh, and also this: no, I'm not a godfather, and not mafia, either.
I'll do a better case-by-case response tomorrow afternoon/evening -- I am actually busier on weekends than during weekdays. Meanwhile I suggest an interrogation of anyone who hasn't contributed post-Night-1, like sloosh did last night. This is another opportunity for people to fly below the radar, and considering the rest of my defense isn't coming until tomorrow evening, it'll give us another data-font. "It's wrong to say that a townie would never request to be investigated." Actually it is absolutely right to say that a townie who thought it through would never ask to be rolechecked. The very possibility that a godfather is in the game means that an asked for rolecheck does not confirm innocence. It's a tool that would have failed to establish anything other than a wasted rolecheck. As for my suggestions that you are the godfather, they are not WIFOM. I based these comments on your posting, not on speculation about the setup. Even if we are in a setup with no godfather, it does not change that you have acted as I think a godfather would. Yet another defensive post with falsehoods. My case only grows stronger.
I like what you have to say, DoYou, and you make a good point here. Although, I think there is something else to draw from this. Townie play lends itself to being as transparent as possible to everyone else. Seeming to have hidden agenda's and making everyone have trouble actually reading you're posts are two signs to me that someone isn't a townie player.
So, this is the question I asked myself. Why would I want the Detective to waste his nightly check on a Town player? He gets a Townie check, which might also end up being the Godfather. Always a possibility. But beyond that, it also prevents the DT from finding a scum-player that night, because i'm asking the DT to confirm my role as a Townie. There really isn't any reason to do that. Good town play proves you're town in the thread. You don't need to verify with the DT.
However, from a mafia standpoint, it does a number of things. Firstly, since Zarepath was already starting to drown, he could have thrown it out to prevent his other scumbuddies from being detected. Secondly, he could be the Godfather, and was trying to pull in the DT check to waste it, and "confirm" himself as a Townie. However, I think the most important thing to look at is the fact he asked the DT to do it How would the DT reveal his information to the thread? Unless he breadcrumbed and died, he would need to reveal himself, which only benefits one faction so early...the Mafia.
Looking back on it with all the additional information that popped up, his desire to want to get checked keeps poking me in the arm. It's like putting a puzzle together and missing just two pieces...and BAM, there they are! They fell under the table!
##vote Zarepath
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On January 30 2012 03:45 Bromancipate wrote: However, I think the most important thing to look at is the fact he asked the DT to do it How would the DT reveal his information to the thread? Unless he breadcrumbed and died, he would need to reveal himself, which only benefits one faction so early...the Mafia. ##vote Zarepath
Thank you for pointing out this facet of the analysis that I overlooked. As a reminder, please get your vote into the voting thread.
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Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.
This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.
Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.
There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.
I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.
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At this point, zarepath is dead. I must say that i am getting slightly suspicious of this action beacuse of the limited resistence it is met with. Either mafia has decided that he is unsafeable and don't want to invest to heavily in trying to defend him, or he is not really mafia.
Anyways the case is still pretty good, so we will see how he flips, and then go from there. My vote on zelblade is obviously useless at this point, so i will switch it over to zarepath, this way there are 9 people on him, so even if mafia decides to do something last-minute, they will still need to get 2 people of him. I also find it interesting how late people place their vote even though i though we wanted to place them as early as possible for transparency reasons. Not to mention balt11t being completely vanished and maybe even getting modkilled at this point.
##unvote zelblade ##vote zarepath
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On January 30 2012 07:18 Adam4167 wrote: Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.
This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.
Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.
There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.
I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.
I think his team did abandon him.
And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis.
So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this).
If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath.
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Well, I hope you're right.
This is one time id be happy for my read to be wrong.
I have to take my PC offline for a couple of hours to re-install windows. I should be back before the lynch, but in case i am not, ill move my vote now.
##Unvote SacredSystem ##Vote zarepath
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Just so people know, I am back from a four day holiday. I was intending to check up everyday but it seems wine regions in this area don't do internet. This was always a possibility which was why I chose to use a hydra account.
My apologies to you all for making this more difficult than it had to be. I am reading the thread and will post something more concrete soon enough.
Finally my upmost apologies to Jitsu who has been a trooper about this. If you want to give our hydra crap for not posting, blame me. He has done the best he could with the time he had.
Thanks for listening.
/Probulous
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After reading the posts that have occurred over the past 24 hours, and seeing that it seems zarepath is already dead, I too will be voting for zarepeth this day.
##Vote: zarepath
Posted from my Android device, internet being wonky, will return at 10 EST. (Please note, MidnightGladius, that I had to add one more disgusting post to my filter, but this is not an apology. I wanted to establish this BEFORE you go off on another tangent about something completely unrelated to the game.)
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Start of Night 2
Zarepath was trapped. Encouraged by the lack of deaths the previous night, the citizens of Liquidville had almost universally turned their eyes toward him and voiced their suspicions that he was Mafia. It didn't take long for the manhunt to begin. Everywhere he went, the townspeople turned against him and started chasing after him, accusing him of being a killer and a criminal. He found himself taking refuge in alleyways behind buildings and in backyards. Running as fast as he could, he opened one, two, three, and finally four gates into people's gardens and backyards, but could never get from the angry, pitchfork-waving mob.
Finally, the justice-mad mob caught up to zarepath and killed him, spilling his bright red blood. For his terrible crimes, zarepath's soul was dragged through the four gates of hell before being sentenced to eternal damnation.
zarepath the Mafia Goon has been lynched.
Night 2 has begun! Please send your night actions to me and Qatol. Night ends in 24 hours, on Monday, Jan. 30 at 03:00 GMT (+00:00).
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But on a more serious matter I think we really have to take a hard look at who was supporting and against zarepath's lynch, even so far back as day 1. We're doing better but we have a long way to go.
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On January 30 2012 11:34 balt11t wrote: After reading the posts that have occurred over the past 24 hours, and seeing that it seems zarepath is already dead, I too will be voting for zarepeth this day.
##Vote: zarepath
Posted from my Android device, internet being wonky, will return at 10 EST. (Please note, MidnightGladius, that I had to add one more disgusting post to my filter, but this is not an apology. I wanted to establish this BEFORE you go off on another tangent about something completely unrelated to the game.)
You've got to be kidding me.
In one post, you have managed to:
1) Barely avoid getting yourself modkilled. Congratulations on fulfilling the minimum number of posts, and getting your vote in half an hour before the deadline. As I checked the voting thread, I noticed that dreamflower didn't even count your vote properly: instead, he has zarepath voting for himself :D
2) Jump onto the zarepath bandwagon with the least amount of content or reasoning of any player.
3) Go another day cycle without providing any reads or analysis at all.
4) Blather without addressing, and even implicitly reinforcing, my previous suspicions.
5) Annoy me.
And that will be the last of your scum plays this game. Good night!
##Shoot: balt11t
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Success! We now have a firm piece of ground to from which to reason. Just as CosmosXAM has said, I am going to be looking hard at what happened directly after sl0osh posted his case and I posted my case.
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On January 30 2012 12:34 DoYouHas wrote: Success! We now have a firm piece of ground to from which to reason. Just as CosmosXAM has said, I am going to be looking hard at what happened directly after sl0osh posted his case and I posted my case. Hey hey hey man, don't forget me posting my case against him just before slOosh And yea going to bed now, and I have school all day tomorrow so I wont be back until 5 pm CST. Hopefully I will have enough time to read all that happens before Day 3 starts.
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On January 30 2012 12:33 MidnightGladius wrote:As I checked the voting thread, I noticed that dreamflower didn't even count your vote properly: instead, he has zarepath voting for himself :D
Argh. I apparently cannot be trusted to count votes properly where zarepath is involved, as I've already messed up with a previous vote count between zarepath/zelblade. The vote list has been fixed so that zarepath is not voting twice and voting for himself to get lynched. Thanks for pointing this out.
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On January 30 2012 12:33 MidnightGladius wrote: 1) Barely avoid getting yourself modkilled. Congratulations on fulfilling the minimum number of posts, and getting your vote in half an hour before the deadline. As I checked the voting thread, I noticed that dreamflower didn't even count your vote properly: instead, he has zarepath voting for himself :D
Dreamflower is a she, yo! And the voting discrepancy has been fixed, thanks for pointing it out.
As a standing policy, if anyone sees a mistake in a vote count, please let dreamflower or myself know.
Bah, she beat me to posting because I took the time to bold/blue!
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On January 30 2012 12:40 Qatol wrote:
Dreamflower is a she, yo! And the voting discrepancy has been fixed, thanks for pointing it out.
[/QUOTE]
if it makes you feel any better i knew dreamflower was a girl but thats only cus i met her irl with Qatol at a lan
and im glad im not the only one who mixed up zelblade and zarepath
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Yes. Midnight is apparently claiming vigi and shooting balt11t which is awesome and I think no one has a problem with that.
Next up we should take out zelblade. Only reason why he isn't dead yet is because we focused and killed zarepath.
I don't even have to post analysis or anything as it's been done well enough before, just pushed aside b/c zarepath lynch. slOosh post (day 1) DoYouHas post (day 1) Bromancipate post (day 2)
On January 28 2012 17:24 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 16:42 SacredSystem wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 15:40 zelblade wrote:I believe that SacredSystem seems scummy. + Show Spoiler +if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia also what does this even mean????? I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing so now tell me why would you not be mafia? He starts off this post by stating that he is "most suspisous" of me. Then, he goes on to quote Chocolate, before accusing him out of nowhere, simply because Chocolate called him out for his unclear posts, and called him suspisious. This seems really wierd to me to jump out like that and call someone scum because you were attacked. He also blames him for jumping onto the fakepromise vote, when he himself, as adam has pointed out, jumped on it too. Furthermore, his next post just a couple of minutes later says this : + Show Spoiler + that was all directed at chocolate
and since zelblade has been suspicious of chocolate this whole time maybe he all of his apologies are just the result of him being a noob
Firstly, when have i been suspisious of chocolate at all? The only person i have stated that i am suspisious off is fakepromise, simply because before i had to go he was the only one who seemed suspisious to me. This statement doesnt make sense at all and I dont even know what it means. Next, this is a clear contradiction. Just because a new targert has jumped up, he instantly forgets about his suspisions about me and states that I might just be a noob. Going from "most suspicious" to "maybe just noob" in a couple of minutes seems really wierd to me, especially with nothing in between these minutes except that he has found a new targert to attack. Looking through the rest of his filter, we see him advocating not jumping to counclusions, while he himself does it and jumps onto fakepromise for the 30% slip. Throughout the rest of his earlier posts, most of them are spent attacking fakepromise, and look at this; Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. you are bluffing how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town. Overall, I believe that SacredSystem seems to be quite scummy at this point, and he is definately my strongest scum read, with him pushing fakepromise so hard, yet blaming people and calling them scummy for jumping onto a wagon that he is on - in fact, one that he strongly pushes for. His sudden out of the blue attack onto chocolate for "labeling me(SS) as mafia" definately throws on more suspision onto him. ##vote: SacredSystem zarepath never contributed any analysis and he constantly wanted to mislead the any analysis that was being discussed you seem to use the term bandwagon quite loosely i created the wagon to lynch fakepromise and why wouldnt i? this is like the 3rd post where i have asked you to explain why a townsmen wouldnt be suspicious of him, and none of you have yet to do so i never supported lurkers, i attacked the guy who avoided real analysis but speaking of bandwagon this appears to be the second one you have jumped on. first you used my logic to vote on fakepromise, and then condemn me for doing so and then you jump on me you have done nothing to prove that would be mafia, which im not yet claim that i am right after adam laid the ground work for you You claim that zarepath never contributed any analysis. But what sort of analysis have YOU provided? Looking through your filter, all your attacks are flimsy. Then you got this business where he attacks SS with that slight defense of Zarepath.
We get him next lynch OKOK?
On a more serious note I think we as town should now focus on who the fourth mafia could be. We have this night, the next day (lynch zelblade) , the next night and the day after to lynch the final mafia (incorporating Midnight's vigi shot). That is a nice 6 days but doesn't hurt to start now eh?
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On January 30 2012 12:33 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 11:34 balt11t wrote: After reading the posts that have occurred over the past 24 hours, and seeing that it seems zarepath is already dead, I too will be voting for zarepeth this day.
##Vote: zarepath
Posted from my Android device, internet being wonky, will return at 10 EST. (Please note, MidnightGladius, that I had to add one more disgusting post to my filter, but this is not an apology. I wanted to establish this BEFORE you go off on another tangent about something completely unrelated to the game.) You've got to be kidding me. In one post, you have managed to: 1) Barely avoid getting yourself modkilled. Congratulations on fulfilling the minimum number of posts, and getting your vote in half an hour before the deadline. As I checked the voting thread, I noticed that dreamflower didn't even count your vote properly: instead, he has zarepath voting for himself :D 2) Jump onto the zarepath bandwagon with the least amount of content or reasoning of any player. 3) Go another day cycle without providing any reads or analysis at all. 4) Blather without addressing, and even implicitly reinforcing, my previous suspicions. 5) Annoy me. And that will be the last of your scum plays this game. Good night! ##Shoot: balt11t
Since everyone here seems to hate the concept of an apology, I think it seems completely unproductive to try and convince you that my ability to post the last two days has been completely beyond my control. It may seem hard to believe, but not everyone has a completely stable internet connection. I have been calling my ISP everyday for the last several months to get my issues fixed, to no avail. When I have an internet connection, speeds are typically as low as .2 Mb/s, or as high as .5Mb/s, and that's when I can connect.. Now while it's clear you don't particularly care about why I have been unable to play this game to the fullest of my abilities, let it be known that my ISP was giving me issues in my connections.
Secondly, I don't know if you know this or not (but in your seemingly infinite wisdom, I should think you would), but it happens to be extremely difficult to post from a cellular phone, which I have been doing since towards the beginning of the game, which DOES answer your question:
Considering that he has "been able to watch the game develop, just not post," why are the few posts that he makes so empty of content? .
I wouldn't necessarily call my previous post blathering either, I was simply trying to explain my odd position.
I would address your other points (specifically #5), however I fear that I may quickly become aggravated and rash, which I want to avoid at any cost.
Anyhow, I suppose technically, none of us will know the validity of your 'shooting' until the night ends; as far as I am concerned you may even be bluffing.
Finally, while it may or may not matter, my internet is back up as of 10:21, which was a little late, alas, I have it back nonetheless.
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Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while.
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Well now I look like a complete tool, thanks for that zarepath.
I approve of that vig shot. I wouldn't have announced it in thread though, as they may have been hiding their role-blocker, as in the last newbie game.
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Ehh....
On January 29 2012 05:07 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2012 04:50 SacredSystem wrote: i agree with doyouhas i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me? i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1 Are you confusing me with zarepath or something? I am the one that attacked you, not him. Establishing that Zarepath did not attack SS.
On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 07:18 Adam4167 wrote: Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.
This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.
Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.
There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.
I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.
I think his team did abandon him. And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis. So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this). If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath.
On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. Copies my post and then misdirects us to focus on lurkers (we're nailing balt11t and town presence is strong enough that we don't need lurkers to find mafia). Does exactly what I guessed.
Remember to $$Vote Zelblade
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On January 30 2012 13:31 Adam4167 wrote: Well now I look like a complete tool, thanks for that zarepath.
I approve of that vig shot. I wouldn't have announced it in thread though, as they may have been hiding their role-blocker, as in the last newbie game. Could you provide a link to game? Did they like, withhold the roleblock powers day 1?
In either case I doubt that Midnight would fakeclaim vigi, shoot in public against someone who everyone is fine with getting shot, and so in the event balt11t isn't dead we can just kill him with lynch later? I guess it buys mafia an additional day but that has potential to give us additional cop investigations (if we have one I dunno) and more time to find the last mafia.
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On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while.
Of course we always want to be pressuring and scrutinizing lurkers, but let me put forth this idea. After looking at zarepath's posts when he was defending himself on day1, he tried to point us back to the lurkers quite a bit. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote: I'm impressed with how thoroughly you've examined my posts. But honestly, if you were to decide that any other active player were mafia simply because you read a thread about active mafia, you would find similar "inconsistencies" that are simply misunderstandings in semantics.
I've done nothing but further town discussion, point towards suspicious people, contribute actual analytical defense of people that others are accusing, trying to aright the lynchpath -- etc.
There are numerous others who only accuse without good argument, refuse to defend themselves, or don't even post at all. While a wall of text analysis is impressive, it's operating on assumptions and while it might feel cool to be suspicious of an active town contributor, you really have nothing to go on here.
On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. On January 27 2012 11:08 zarepath wrote: I'm not talking about Feared Being. I'm talking about less-actives like zelblade, cosmos and yourself, who post little, small, and acusaTORY THINGS WITH NO REAL ANALYSIS
(sorry holding baby) On January 27 2012 12:24 zarepath wrote: But we're having this 4-6 player discussion about an active townie while everyone else gets by just bandwagoning and not contributing anything.
This suggests to me that there is at least 1 more active mafia in the game. Let's not narrow our view to just lurkers. We can't get overconfident and discount possibilities because of 1 correct lynch.
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If a vigilante shot get's roleblocked, does that count as his hit being canceled, thereby allowing him to shoot at anytime following that night?
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Newbie Mini Mafia II
Featuring both heads of our hydra, Jitsu and Probulous. The mafia withheld the roleblock on nights 1 and 2.
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No, the vigilante's shot is counted as being used, but the shot itself is negated. Shots are only refunded if they overlap with another vigilante hit or with the Mafia's hit. Thus, if he is roleblocked the night that he shoots, the vigilante will not able to shoot again.
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Not trying to talk back here and I'll let this drop afterward but, Doesn't a roleblocker block all night actions, in other words all features of someone's role? Meaning that a roleblocked vigi could not have fired his shot in the first place, and therefore it would not be wasted.
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No. It blocks the kill itself but not the attempt to use the kill.
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You break my heart, dreamflower. I have to say that that wasn't made sufficiently clear in the first post or in my role PM. That said, it is what it is.
To be optimistic, perhaps the 9:4: innocent:mafia setup would reduce the probability of a roleblocker being in the game. I suppose we'll just have to see what happens.
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Woohoo! A red lynch! Congrats guys, I wish I could have helped but my contribution for the next lynch is below.
Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you.
Alright, business time. Here are my reads.
Town
- MG – claimed Vig so we will see
- sl0osh – Should be obvious but I can post analysis if required
- Adam4167 – Has been aggressive and rightly called out Simberto for some illogical inconsistencies. He was the only one pushing a different lynch than zarepath which may initially seem mafia-driven except that it was clear zarepath was going to die anyway. He wasn’t sure and stuck to his guns. He played the same way in the first Newbie game and I see nothing to suggest he is mafia
Now to the important stuff
SCUM
SacredSystem
Before I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due.
SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem.
He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with
i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing
also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia.
Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating
i advised against making non conclusive accusations
accusing fakepromise seems conclusive to me even though i probably should have waited This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched.
Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along.
But Brothers, what of Zarepath?
SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states
if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linky
How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia.
His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”.
No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty
and why wouldnt zarepath be suspicious of defending fakepromise you tell me why anyone would defend fakepromise Contrast this with his earlier post
if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text.
TLDR SacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation.
##Vote SacredSystem
/Probulous
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Can you vote at night for the following day?
If anything could you put it on Zelblade? I know some people mentioned that they don't think SacredSystem is scum. Like in the case of zarepath before, I would really like us to lynch one mafia at a time. I think we all agree zelblade is scum, and so as to avoid division and a no-lynch can we go for zelblade?
In the meantime we can discuss SS since we have the time.
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EBWOP:
You refers to Bromancipate / Probulous.
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Apparently not
I just got a PM from Qatol saying that my vote doesn't count. Doesn't change the fact that I want him lynched.
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On January 30 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: Can you vote at night for the following day?
If anything could you put it on Zelblade? I know some people mentioned that they don't think SacredSystem is scum. Like in the case of zarepath before, I would really like us to lynch one mafia at a time. I think we all agree zelblade is scum, and so as to avoid division and a no-lynch can we go for zelblade?
In the meantime we can discuss SS since we have the time.
I will take a closer look at zelblade. I am still trying to catch up on everyone's agenda here. SS just screamed mafia too me hence my case on him. I understand you wanting to consolidate lynch targets. My only caution is that this allows mafia to wagon the vote really easily.
We had this in my last game where everyone (I mean everyone, including the lynch target himself) voted for Sheth. Now he turned out to be scum but the lynch gave us no info because there was no requirement to provide decent reasoning. So for now my target remains SacredScum but I will take a closer look at zelblade and come back to you.
PS Jitsu is sleeping so I can't confirm what his thoughts were on zelblade.
/Probulous
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On January 30 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: Can you vote at night for the following day?
No. It would be confusing/useless during the lynch if you pre-voted for someone to be lynched and they died during the night. Also it allows people to meet activity requirements during the night, and I don't like the idea of people being able to vote early in the night, go mia for almost 6 days (night + day + night + day), vote at the end of the day, and still be considered active enough to avoid a modkill/ban.
That being said, posting about intentions to vote is fine. Just make sure you post your vote once the day starts!
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Will do oh benevolent Qatol, the one who speaks from the dead. Please don't smite me oh mighty smiter.
I am heading home now everyone. I will try and jump back online in a few hours but I can't guarantee anything. Otherwise I will be on from about 4pm your time (I think, I am terrible with timezones).
You know what to do, survive the night, lynch SacredScum.
/Probulous
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for all you players who keep coming up with excuses as to why you cant play next time you play mafia please make sure you have that time
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On January 30 2012 14:56 Bromancipate wrote:
SacredScum.
really?
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I feel the need to walk back my defense of SacredSystem a bit. In day2 I was very quick to defend him as he was an early supporter of my analysis. I was looking for things that would let me channel voting towards zarepath. I think that is very clear to everyone. However, after getting zarepath lynched I have looked more closely at the case Adam presented and now Bromancipate. This, on top of the fact that a unanimous vote means support of my analysis and the zarepath lynch are no longer good standards for innocence, makes me retract my earlier defense of SacredSystem. I am going to take advantage of night2 to really look into SacredSystem for myself. Also, I'm going to try and analyze zelblade's day2 posts since we seem to be focusing on his day1 issues a little too much.
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Ok. With the information that Zarepath is mafia, i don't think we should lynch either SacredSystem or CosmosXAM too soon, seeing as CosmosXAM was brought up as an alternative to FakePromise on day 1, which would be a pretty good thing to do to both make yourself look town by contributing original ideas, and have a lynch debate where both targets are town, which is an ideal situation for mafia to be in since they can easily honestly contribute (this might be an elaborate ruse, but i don't think so, it just feels like it would be pretty risky if Cosmos is mafia)
For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia.
Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case.
We need to take a deep look at who voted late and/or reluctantly onto zarepath, there is probably scum amongst them. In line with my "zelblade is scum" theory, i think that the point when zelblade was forced to vote for zarepath is the point when mafia realised that they could not safe him. This makes people after him most suspicious, the list of those is: Chocolate, Bromancipate, Simberto, Adam4167, balt11t. Now, i know that i am town. You all don't, but that should not hinder my analysis. Adam feels pretty towny to me, and balt11t is very suspicious, was suspicious before, and is in line to hopefully get shot tonight so we see how that feels. I think that both Bromancipate and Chocolate are very good targets for further investigation. Of course i am also open to investigation regarding me and will openly and transparently answer any questions you have, since i realise that my voting pattern looks pretty scummy. Sure, our forth mafia does not need to be part of that list, they could have decided to bus zarepath earlier, but i don't think that is the case.
On an other note, i think we can be reasonably sure that mafia does not have a godfather. If they had one, it would have been zarepath.
We can be pretty sure that DoYouHas is town, because if he is mafia, he is either absurdly stupid or has such an ingenious and risky scheme planned that we could probably better just lie down and die if it does not crumble on its own.
So, I will vote on zelblade again tomorrow, and i hope that this time we can get him lynched.
Also: WOOOOOO, dead mafia!
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I'm going to bed, but before I do I want to clear this up.
"On an other note, i think we can be reasonably sure that mafia does not have a godfather. If they had one, it would have been zarepath." -Simberto
You cannot use my reasoning that zarepath was a godfather to speculate on the setup of the game. It is still as likely as it was before we killed zarepath. I, for one, hope the mafia do have a godfather. That would make it less likely they have a roleblocker, which is what worries me right now.
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Well, no. According to the rules, the mafia can choose their godfather day1, and i feel that if they had one, they would have chosen zarepath because he was very much in the spotlight, and especially with the attacks at the end of day1, i see zarepath as being one of the most likely persons to be rolechecked. Thus, if mafia has a godfather, there is a high probability that they would have chosen zarepath for that job. Anyways it is only something that a possible detective needs to worry about at the moment. Still being suspicious of town checks does sound like a good idea though, you are correct about that.
As to the roleblocker, we will have a much better idea of that at the end of the night. It will not be 100% certain in all cases, but whether or not balt11t dies and how he flips will give us a great deal of information on this subject. The only way to 100% confirm MidnightGladius is by both balt11t and someone else dieing tonight.
My hopes are that with a 4 start, mafia does not have any power roles, but that is only a hope.
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The strange smily above was actually 4 to 9, but apparently got smilified.
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On January 30 2012 13:35 slOosh wrote:Ehh.... Show nested quote +On January 29 2012 05:07 zelblade wrote:On January 29 2012 04:50 SacredSystem wrote: i agree with doyouhas i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me? i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1 Are you confusing me with zarepath or something? I am the one that attacked you, not him. Establishing that Zarepath did not attack SS.
I wasnt trying to establish that zarepath didnt attack SS. That post was really goddammed wierd, and I couldnt understand it, and I believed that he might be confusing me and zarepath, and I just asked him to clarify.(which he did)
Really dont see how clarifying about a confusing post that confused me is scummy.
Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:On January 30 2012 07:18 Adam4167 wrote: Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.
This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.
Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.
There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.
I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.
I think his team did abandon him. And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis. So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this). If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. Copies my post and then misdirects us to focus on lurkers (we're nailing balt11t and town presence is strong enough that we don't need lurkers to find mafia). Does exactly what I guessed. Remember to $$Vote Zelblade
When i posted this post, I was in a rush to go out and didnt have time to read through the thread properly. Only skimmed through the posts after the day post before typing that before going out. I didnt actually see that you had already posted that.
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On January 30 2012 22:11 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 13:35 slOosh wrote:Ehh.... On January 29 2012 05:07 zelblade wrote:On January 29 2012 04:50 SacredSystem wrote: i agree with doyouhas i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me? i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1 Are you confusing me with zarepath or something? I am the one that attacked you, not him. Establishing that Zarepath did not attack SS. I wasnt trying to establish that zarepath didnt attack SS. That post was really goddammed wierd, and I couldnt understand it, and I believed that he might be confusing me and zarepath, and I just asked him to clarify.(which he did) Really dont see how clarifying about a confusing post that confused me is scummy. Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:On January 30 2012 07:18 Adam4167 wrote: Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.
This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.
Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.
There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.
I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.
I think his team did abandon him. And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis. So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this). If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. Copies my post and then misdirects us to focus on lurkers (we're nailing balt11t and town presence is strong enough that we don't need lurkers to find mafia). Does exactly what I guessed. Remember to $$Vote Zelblade When i posted this post, I was in a rush to go out and didnt have time to read through the thread properly. Only skimmed through the posts after the day post before typing that before going out. I didnt actually see that you had already posted that. Clarifying a confusing post is fine. It's the manner in which you did it that is strange. I don't see how that second sentence "I am the one that attacked you, not him" is necessary. All it does is try to clear Zarepath of suspicion (from Sacred at least)
And with your post that was "written in haste":
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. That's a pretty big logical jump you made there. Premise: Almost everyone voted Zarepath. Conclusion. Mafia have little to no thread presence.
Its too big to be an oversight caused to due hastiness. This oversight is because you are working off already existing ideas (namely mine) and thus felt no need to explain your thinking process.
Anyways I am dead set against you and you will be next up for lynch. Day 1 info was good enough for me to lynch you and this new stuff isn't clearing you at all.
Remember guys $$Vote Zelblade
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 14:30 Bromancipate wrote:Woohoo! A red lynch! Congrats guys, I wish I could have helped but my contribution for the next lynch is below. Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you. Alright, business time. Here are my reads. Town- MG – claimed Vig so we will see
- sl0osh – Should be obvious but I can post analysis if required
- Adam4167 – Has been aggressive and rightly called out Simberto for some illogical inconsistencies. He was the only one pushing a different lynch than zarepath which may initially seem mafia-driven except that it was clear zarepath was going to die anyway. He wasn’t sure and stuck to his guns. He played the same way in the first Newbie game and I see nothing to suggest he is mafia
Now to the important stuff SCUMSacredSystemBefore I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due. SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem. He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with Show nested quote + i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing
also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia. Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating Show nested quote + i advised against making non conclusive accusations
accusing fakepromise seems conclusive to me even though i probably should have waited This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched. Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along. But Brothers, what of Zarepath? SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states Show nested quote + if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linkyHow is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”. No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty Show nested quote + and why wouldnt zarepath be suspicious of defending fakepromise you tell me why anyone would defend fakepromise Contrast this with his earlier post Show nested quote + if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text. TLDRSacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation. ##Vote SacredSystem/Probulous
I found a 4th mafia candidate guys!!!
Notice the word candidate: I invite you guys to look at him with me. Here are some reasons why he warrants a much closer look.
1) In his town reads, DoYouHas is missing. The guy who claimed he was shot, and moved to lynch the mafia. What kind of oversight is this?
2) He is one of the late voters of Zarepath lynch. zarepath - 11 DoYouHas CosmosXAM slOosh SacredSystem MidnightGladius zelblade Chocolate Bromancipate Simberto Adam4167 balt11t
On bandwagons against town, mafia want like the 2~6 voting spots. They don't want first since it puts them in spotlight and don't want to be last since it draws suspicion. On bandwagons against mafia, mafia want the spots a bit down the list. Maybe like 4~8. They don't want to take 2 or 3 since it can build momentum in the lynch, but when it is clear that they can't save him they have to get on otherwise it is too suspicious. A bit late due to caution to the hop on me thinks.
3) Votes for SacredSystem. All I have been doing is making town focus votes, and I think I was very clear that I wanted zelblade next. I would be fine if he built his analysis of Sacred and suggested we go for him after zelblade but this almost seems like an interruption / distraction from the zelblade lynch.
4) I don't think SacredSystem is the 4th mafia. Say the mafia are Zarepath, zelblade, balt11t and SacredSystem. Watch the interactions between the zelblade and SacredSystem in the thread, especially after night 1 ended.
This isn't bussing. Mafia aren't going to bus their remaining members. It doesn't make sense that sacred is the 4th. (This point is assuming zelblade and balt11t are mafia, but I think everyone concurs with me on this).
This was actually the trigger for me. As soon as I saw that he thought it was SacredSystem I looked around and found these points.
I know there are stronger analysts out there so I'm asking you guys to help me out here.
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(Please don't misconstrue that last line as confirmation bias. I don't think he is scum, but I do think he is worth looking into)
Further general readings:
I looked into Bromancipate's analysis of SacredSystem a bit more. Looking at his actions it seems like he is a new player trying to prove his innocence and frustrated that he cannot.
I'll take a piece from the analysis:
How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? He did have a reason voting for a townie. It is very clear that he has problems with the 30% statement.
Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. He lashes out quite passionately at Chocolate for suspecting him. Another "newbie" tell. I think I would say that a coolheaded townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. An OMGUS is not always a mafia tell, but is also natural in newbie games, especially when emotions get involved.
Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. Yes he flip flops a lot, but he is very clear and transparent in his actions.
Which leads me to the conclusion that he is indeed an innocent townie having difficulties and frustrations trying to prove his innocence.
Also he is 4th in voting for Zarapath. You might say 'slOosh didn't you say mafia is like 4~8 or something'? The order isn't so important as the timing. He voted when it was still not clear that Zarapath would be lynched or not. Mafia would not add additional momentum on a mafia lynch wagon that is still uncertain.
Along the same lines I get a town read from Cosmos. He voted for Zarepath day 1 (before my analysis) and day 2 (after getting backing of DoYouHas). Mafia don't start bandwagons against their own. Notice he is 1st to vote (on day 1) and 2nd to vote (on day 2).
I feel like I'm posting a lot of info so I'll stop here and let others have their says. Remember guys, activity and discussion is always good for town (especially since there is much less mafia influence this is prime time for getting thoughts out without people trying to confuse or misdirect).
TLDR: (last 3 posts) We lynching Zelblade tomorrow. We lynch any other suspects the next day. I think Sacred probably town. Same with Cosmos. Bromancipate is worth looking into as potential 4th mafia candidate.
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On January 30 2012 14:45 Bromancipate wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: Can you vote at night for the following day?
If anything could you put it on Zelblade? I know some people mentioned that they don't think SacredSystem is scum. Like in the case of zarepath before, I would really like us to lynch one mafia at a time. I think we all agree zelblade is scum, and so as to avoid division and a no-lynch can we go for zelblade?
In the meantime we can discuss SS since we have the time.
I will take a closer look at zelblade. I am still trying to catch up on everyone's agenda here. SS just screamed mafia too me hence my case on him. I understand you wanting to consolidate lynch targets. My only caution is that this allows mafia to wagon the vote really easily. We had this in my last game where everyone (I mean everyone, including the lynch target himself) voted for Sheth. Now he turned out to be scum but the lynch gave us no info because there was no requirement to provide decent reasoning. So for now my target remains SacredScum but I will take a closer look at zelblade and come back to you. PS Jitsu is sleeping so I can't confirm what his thoughts were on zelblade. /Probulous Oh shoot my bad just re read this. It throws my #3 out the window. I forget to treat you like a hydra so I'm not sure who knows what.
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Actually, i would really like to see how this night turns out before going hunting for the remaining scum. The result of the Midnight/Balt11t interaction is pretty important towards everything we do from here.
I don't think anyone at this point disagrees with a zelblade lynch. We should spent some time of day 3 very carefully analysing everything to make sure that we don't make a mistake here (We have got the time), but as i pointed out before, i don't think we do. However, if someone has a major complaint against that or wants to put forth another, better candidate, now would be a good time to do so.
If everything turns out as expected and both zelblade and balt11t are scum, my prime subjects for the forth one would be Bromancipate, Chocolate and maybe Adam4167. But i must say that i have not rigorously analysed this and this conclusion is mostly from my memory.
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so im not on my computer im on my phone, so i wont write a giant write up, the attacks made on me seemd like they were organized, im pretty sure there seemed to be some team work going on between zelblade and zarepath, their attacks seem like a giant smoke screen because they accuse me of using logic that other players were using as well, and this did make me very frustrated
i also would like to state that im sure zarepaths attacks on me would confirm my innocence, since inwas suspicious of him since day 1, so me bussing him doesnt seem very viable
i am reading all the posts, just to let yiu all know
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also i dont think ill die during thr night, if i die it would only serve to further expose the people who are attackig me, please note those who have been morr agressive towards me are thise who have since recieved anlot of attention as being suspicious from other players
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You won't die. There are already firmly established town players that mafia would rather hit. Hitting suspicious people just narrows our options. They'll keep you alive because you "absorb" suspicion.
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On January 30 2012 17:37 Simberto wrote: Well, no. According to the rules, the mafia can choose their godfather day1, and i feel that if they had one, they would have chosen zarepath because he was very much in the spotlight, and especially with the attacks at the end of day1, i see zarepath as being one of the most likely persons to be rolechecked. Thus, if mafia has a godfather, there is a high probability that they would have chosen zarepath for that job. Anyways it is only something that a possible detective needs to worry about at the moment. Still being suspicious of town checks does sound like a good idea though, you are correct about that.
You are falling into WIFOM again sl0osh. This is getting to be a habit. We have no way of knowing what the mafia's choice for godfather would be since we don't know who all of the mafia are. Just because being a godfather would have fit with zarepath's play does not mean that he was the most likely choice. In fact, since the mafia had the entire first day before they would have had to make a decision on who to be godfather, it is easily as likely that he would not have been chosen godfather after suspicion was thrown on him. But even these musings are unprovable. I'm just pointing out that you are ignoring possibilities.
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EBWOP: whoops, that was Simberto, not sl0osh. Sorry sl0osh.
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Alright I am back guys. I am catching up on what you guys said overnight. I have not yet been able to confer with Jitsu about his read on his zelblade, which apparently was heavily scum.
I don't agree, I think zelblade is town and just has no credibility.
He obviously opposed random lynching and then makes a nothing post about mafia KP. Sl0osh jumps on him for this and for saying "to town" which is not a case in my mind. I assumed at this point sl0osh was just presuring zelblade. Zelblade straight up explains his motivations. DYH points out that he hasn't provided his reads when in the spotlight but instead apologised. Well he explains this as his first game and then what does he do, he targets SS.
He puts together a read and pushes it. Just like he was asked to do. Poor guy, he then gets blamed for deflecting attention from himself by doing exactly what he was asked to do.
I don't know about Zelblade. Everything he has written has seemed geniune to me. Newb and scared of voicing his opinions sure, but when asked to provide his thoughts he did. Now people are attacking him for it. If you want a comparison, in Newbie II CatsnHats was labelled scum the whole game for exactly this behaviour. I was the only one then to stand up for him. Well he was town in the end and he was actively contributing by the final day.
So with this in mind I will withold my judgement of Zelblade until I can speak with Jitsu and we can agree on our reads. It is in the spirit of transparency that I post my thoughts before consulting him.
/Probulous
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I think we need to do an inventory of mafia and town reads similar to what happened last night. Everyone should be compile their lists for early tomorrow. To establish a clearer understanding of what sides are being taken I think this will be very useful. So post your townie/mafia so that I can gather together my next big case. A few of you have already done something similar to this, like Bromancipate. However, I would like SacredSystem, Chocolate, Adam, MidnightGladius, pretty much everyone (including me) to post their town/mafia reads concisely early tomorrow so we can start the day off with as much information as possible about the state of the game.
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On January 30 2012 16:24 Simberto wrote: Ok. With the information that Zarepath is mafia, i don't think we should lynch either SacredSystem or CosmosXAM too soon, seeing as CosmosXAM was brought up as an alternative to FakePromise on day 1, which would be a pretty good thing to do to both make yourself look town by contributing original ideas, and have a lynch debate where both targets are town, which is an ideal situation for mafia to be in since they can easily honestly contribute (this might be an elaborate ruse, but i don't think so, it just feels like it would be pretty risky if Cosmos is mafia)
For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia.
Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case.
Alright, there seems to be some suspicion on me which is fine. I would encourage people to read my filter (it's short) and let me know what you think. I will get to sl0osh in a moment.
Sim this part of your post is a little weird to me. That first paragrpah is WIFOM with no conclusion. You say we shouldn't lynch Cosmos because you don't think that we could spot a mafia on Day 1? Explain.
SacredSystems alignment does not hang out zelblade's flip. I have made my feelings about zelblade clear and the same for SS. But just because zelblade targeted SS does not mean they are on opposite teams. Again in Newbie II mafia used exactly this tactic so that people would make the jump you just made. I repeat the flip of zelblade does not tell you wether SS is scum or not.
I believe he is based on his posting. But I don't think zelblade is scum. So if we do go ahead and lynch zelblade and he flips town, well that makes SS look bad in your eyes, which is fine with me. But don't drop suspicion of SS if zelblade turns out to be scum.
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EBWOP: That was from me
/Probulous
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On January 31 2012 00:39 slOosh wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 14:30 Bromancipate wrote:Woohoo! A red lynch! Congrats guys, I wish I could have helped but my contribution for the next lynch is below. Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you. Alright, business time. Here are my reads. Town- MG – claimed Vig so we will see
- sl0osh – Should be obvious but I can post analysis if required
- Adam4167 – Has been aggressive and rightly called out Simberto for some illogical inconsistencies. He was the only one pushing a different lynch than zarepath which may initially seem mafia-driven except that it was clear zarepath was going to die anyway. He wasn’t sure and stuck to his guns. He played the same way in the first Newbie game and I see nothing to suggest he is mafia
Now to the important stuff SCUMSacredSystemBefore I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due. SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem. He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with Show nested quote + i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing
also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia. Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating Show nested quote + i advised against making non conclusive accusations
accusing fakepromise seems conclusive to me even though i probably should have waited This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched. Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along. But Brothers, what of Zarepath? SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states Show nested quote + if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linkyHow is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”. No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty Show nested quote + and why wouldnt zarepath be suspicious of defending fakepromise you tell me why anyone would defend fakepromise Contrast this with his earlier post Show nested quote + if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text. TLDRSacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation. ##Vote SacredSystem/Probulous I found a 4th mafia candidate guys!!! Notice the word candidate: I invite you guys to look at him with me. Here are some reasons why he warrants a much closer look. 1) In his town reads, DoYouHas is missing. The guy who claimed he was shot, and moved to lynch the mafia. What kind of oversight is this?
One that you make when you are reading a thread for the first time. DYH is town because no-one claimed a counter hit. His posting has been pretty good but in my reading of the thread he didn't jump out at me as clearly town or scum. Same for Cosmos. I was looking for scum (I am still am) hence my very short bit about who is town. You are right that I missed him but how does that make me scum? I am not pushing for his lynch, or casting doubt on him. I just straight up missed him
2) He is one of the late voters of Zarepath lynch. zarepath - 11 DoYouHas CosmosXAM slOosh SacredSystem MidnightGladius zelblade Chocolate Bromancipate Simberto Adam4167 balt11t
On bandwagons against town, mafia want like the 2~6 voting spots. They don't want first since it puts them in spotlight and don't want to be last since it draws suspicion. On bandwagons against mafia, mafia want the spots a bit down the list. Maybe like 4~8. They don't want to take 2 or 3 since it can build momentum in the lynch, but when it is clear that they can't save him they have to get on otherwise it is too suspicious. A bit late due to caution to the hop on me thinks.
I guess Jitsu can explain this. I admit it looks bad but this is what happens when we you don't present and push our case. Hence my case on SS. I want him lynched. I will no longer allow the brotherhood to be smeared by weak voting.
3) Votes for SacredSystem. All I have been doing is making town focus votes, and I think I was very clear that I wanted zelblade next. I would be fine if he built his analysis of Sacred and suggested we go for him after zelblade but this almost seems like an interruption / distraction from the zelblade lynch.
Explained
4) I don't think SacredSystem is the 4th mafia. Say the mafia are Zarepath, zelblade, balt11t and SacredSystem. Watch the interactions between the zelblade and SacredSystem in the thread, especially after night 1 ended.
This isn't bussing. Mafia aren't going to bus their remaining members. It doesn't make sense that sacred is the 4th. (This point is assuming zelblade and balt11t are mafia, but I think everyone concurs with me on this).
This was actually the trigger for me. As soon as I saw that he thought it was SacredSystem I looked around and found these points.
I know there are stronger analysts out there so I'm asking you guys to help me out here.
Well I disagree that zelblade is mafia but it seems I am in the minority here. I find it highly ironic that he gets painted red for pushing an SS lynch when he was called out originally for not presenting his reads. Besides as I explained to Sim just because two people are having an argument does not mean that they are on opposite teams. Zel and SS could be both mafia or both town (not likely) or one town and one mafia (more likely).
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On January 31 2012 01:51 slOosh wrote: (Please don't misconstrue that last line as confirmation bias. I don't think he is scum, but I do think he is worth looking into)
Further general readings:
I looked into Bromancipate's analysis of SacredSystem a bit more. Looking at his actions it seems like he is a new player trying to prove his innocence and frustrated that he cannot.
How does this not explain zelblade's actions?
I'll take a piece from the analysis: Show nested quote +How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? He did have a reason voting for a townie. It is very clear that he has problems with the 30% statement.
So why push Fake first up? Why not zarepath? He was the one who proposed the idea. I don't like how he just happened to choose the townie of the two with reasoning that could explain a vote for the mafia. Especially that the mafia guy was the one who suggested random lynching. He doesn't even come straight out and say it. He never said "I am voting for Fakepromise because he supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate." It is one piece in the puzzle but it sets the tone.
Show nested quote + Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. He lashes out quite passionately at Chocolate for suspecting him. Another "newbie" tell. I think I would say that a coolheaded townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. An OMGUS is not always a mafia tell, but is also natural in newbie games, especially when emotions get involved.
Why do you give him a break for being a noob but not zelblade? Hell zelblade straight up said he was newb and tried to apologise for it and you used that against him. As you say this is a newbie game so you must expect people to make mistakes like that but for me Zelblade is pushing a case when asked to. SS was jumping around the place without actually trying to convince anyone to follow him. His actions say "Cast a bit of doubt here, throw some suspicion there. We can always come back and use it later."
Yes he flip flops a lot, but he is very clear and transparent in his actions. Which leads me to the conclusion that he is indeed an innocent townie having difficulties and frustrations trying to prove his innocence.
Gah, he is not transparent. He is simply testing the waters. He never mentioned Chocolate until Chocolate mentioned him. Then suddenly Chocolate is mafia? No thinking about it, no analysis, no real reasoning, just a straight up OMGUS. Again, he doesn't have to defend himself from this. He isn't presenting a case. I don't see why you would give him the benefit of the doubt and no-one else.
Also he is 4th in voting for Zarapath. You might say 'slOosh didn't you say mafia is like 4~8 or something'? The order isn't so important as the timing. He voted when it was still not clear that Zarapath would be lynched or not. Mafia would not add additional momentum on a mafia lynch wagon that is still uncertain.
Fourth. He pushed the lynch of Fakepromise because he was in support of an idea that Zarepath presented. Why did he not vote Zarepath first? He votes show that he chose a townie over a mafia when he had the exact same reason for voting for either of them. He only voted Zarepath when the wagon got going.
I am not trying to be argumentative. I want to understand why you are giving SS such lee way?
/Probulous
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On January 28 2012 12:13 Simberto wrote: Now, just in case that you are not sure how to react to this, since mafia already know whom they hit on, it would be really useful for us to know that too.
Since both the medic and the target get notified on a safed hit, the best option is to have the targeted person say that they were safed. If you are a veteran and got safed by your veteran powers, ALSO state that you were safed by a medic, i think we gain more from mafia not knowing whether a medic exists than we would gain from knowing for ourselves. On January 28 2012 14:31 zelblade wrote: I am in the middle of school during the deadline, and as such cannot post close to it unlike you guys. As for not posting throughout the night, some crap came up and I couldnt find the time to catch up with the thread. Will be alot more active from now on.
Catching up on the thread now, will post thoughts in a bit.
Also I believe that since there was no kill last night, the person who got hit (protected by a medic/vet power) should claim that they were shot. Mafia already know who they shot anyways, and it does help to confirm you assuming no one couter claims the shot. Since town shouldnt in any case lie about this anyway, if no one counter claims the shot, we can assume that that person is very likely town.
On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote: I think his team did abandon him.
And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis.
So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this).
If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while.
Stuff like this makes me continue to think Zelblade is mafia. My leeway on SS is based upon my belief that Zelblade is indeed mafia (along with balt11t and Zarepath) and via their interactions with SS I don't see at all how SS could be mafia in that situation.
On January 31 2012 08:33 Bromancipate wrote: So why push Fake first up? Why not zarepath? He was the one who proposed the idea. I don't like how he just happened to choose the townie of the two with reasoning that could explain a vote for the mafia. Especially that the mafia guy was the one who suggested random lynching. He doesn't even come straight out and say it. He never said "I am voting for Fakepromise because he supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate." It is one piece in the puzzle but it sets the tone.
You have hindsight bias here. Zarepath defended himself saying that his plan was just a ploy to generate discussion. People believed this or at least gave him benefit of doubt. We didn't know (100% upon flip) that Zarepath was mafia till day 2. On day 1, no one vocally suspected him until me, then a few others.
On January 31 2012 08:33 Bromancipate wrote:Show nested quote +Also he is 4th in voting for Zarapath. You might say 'slOosh didn't you say mafia is like 4~8 or something'? The order isn't so important as the timing. He voted when it was still not clear that Zarapath would be lynched or not. Mafia would not add additional momentum on a mafia lynch wagon that is still uncertain. Fourth. He pushed the lynch of Fakepromise because he was in support of an idea that Zarepath presented. Why did he not vote Zarepath first? He votes show that he chose a townie over a mafia when he had the exact same reason for voting for either of them. He only voted Zarepath when the wagon got going. /Probulous I cannot answer what motives he had, nor can anyone but him. He didn't choose a townie over mafia. He chose someone suspicious over someone else suspicious. With day 2 my point is that he voted before the wagon got going.
I'm not defending his actions, but I doubt his mafia alignment based on (what I think of) Zelblade's.
If Zelblade flips town I would totally go for SS. I honestly thought he was mafia during night 1 when I pushed for town/mafia reads and he totally flipped out and started verbally flailing at Chocolate and doing all those things you pointed out. However my read on Zelblade as mafia is firm and therefore, I am treating SS as a really reckless townie unless Zelblade flips green.
Summary: I am giving leeway to SS based on my belief that Zelblade is mafia. It is conditional leeway. Hypothetically if there was room for another mafia member on the team I would totally agree with you and move to lynch SS. However because there are only 4 and I cannot see how mafia team could be Zarepath, Zelblade, balt11t and SS, I am inclined to believe SS is just a confusing, anti-town townie (much like FakePromise).
My read on Zelblade > My read on SacredSystem.
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Are we just waiting for night to end, withholding info so mafia can't shoot accordingly? Or are people not here?
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I've been having some computer troubles but I'm still around as much as I'm able.
After going through Bromances' filter, I find it odd that Jitsu never followed this up:
On January 28 2012 09:11 Bromancipate wrote:
RE: MG
Beyond that, I think you're just upset that I called you out and put you in the spotlight.
~J
If you thought he was uncomfortable being in the spotlight, wouldn't you push him further to get a better read on him? Just leaving this alone feels like you didn't want to step on toes.. the Jitsu ive seen isn't afraid to step on toes.
At this point I think Zelblade looks pretty bad for being the only person to jump on my SacredSystem case on day 2 and then abandon it when it looked hopeless for Zarepath.
Balt11t also looks pretty bad, first a ninja-bandwagon vote on day 1, then a stealth vote within an hour of the deadline on day 2. If hes town, hes not doing a very good job of showing it.
And for the 3rd scum, id be looking at Chocolate or Bromancipate.
Simberto has gone a little quiet in the last 48 hours compared to day 1, which is odd.
Zarepath attacking CosmosXAM on day 1 and trying to push him as an alternative lynch gives him some credibility (yes yes i know, not proven townie or anything)
I think SlOosh has done enough to quell any initial paranoia I had towards him.
DoYouHas sponging last nights shot has him off my radar for now.
SacredSystem... well i have mixed feelings here. It doesn't fit the puzzle for him to be scum, he didn't react as I expected a mafia might to my tunneling, hence why I took my foot off the pedal.
From here, I say we flip Zelblade, followed by Balt11t if he doesn't have a run-in with the vigilante-fairy tonight.
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I am giving leeway to SS based on my belief that Zelblade is mafia. It is conditional leeway. Hypothetically if there was room for another mafia member on the team I would totally agree with you and move to lynch SS. However because there are only 4 and I cannot see how mafia team could be Zarepath, Zelblade, balt11t and SS, I am inclined to believe SS is just a confusing, anti-town townie (much like FakePromise). I don't really like this. It seems pretty risky to let bad/scummy play go unpunished just because you don't think these two could both be mafia. Is it unlikely that they are both mafia? Yes. Is it possible? Who knows. I just think these are dangerous waters, because two players are "scummy" and yet you're only letting one actually be scum, when we still have two spots left (I'm pretty convinced balt is scum. We'll see.).
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And for the 3rd scum, id be looking at Chocolate or Bromancipate. Any reasons, or just because I haven't posted much?
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Could people please make sure the author of the quote is mentioned when you are responding to things? It is really annoying when I don't know who said what you are quoting and I have to track it down.
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Just general inactivity. I cant really get a good read on you from your filter yet.
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I agree with you on pretty much everything slOosh except
You have hindsight bias here. Zarepath defended himself saying that his plan was just a ploy to generate discussion. People believed this or at least gave him benefit of doubt. We didn't know (100% upon flip) that Zarepath was mafia till day 2. On day 1, no one vocally suspected him until me, then a few others.
If you look on page 10 I was actually the first to suggest zarepath, you made your point on page 11, not trying to say anything I just wouldn't like to be forgotten about that.
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On January 31 2012 11:28 CosmosXAM wrote:I agree with you on pretty much everything slOosh except Show nested quote +You have hindsight bias here. Zarepath defended himself saying that his plan was just a ploy to generate discussion. People believed this or at least gave him benefit of doubt. We didn't know (100% upon flip) that Zarepath was mafia till day 2. On day 1, no one vocally suspected him until me, then a few others.
If you look on page 10 I was actually the first to suggest zarepath, you made your point on page 11, not trying to say anything I just wouldn't like to be forgotten about that. Shoot my bad. Yea, credit to where credit is due.
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Town Bromancipate DoYouHas - His aggression to SS and his logical analysis confirms his alignment for me. The shot is an added bonus. sl0osh Adam4167 - Explained previously MG - Claimed Vig and if Balt dies is pretty much confirmed.
Null Zelblade - I can explain his actions from both a town or mafia POV so hence he is null. Jitsu is agrees with this. CosmosXAM - Hasn't posted a lot but his early pressure on Zarepath brings me back to null. He needs to be more active. Chocolate - Not much to go on. Did call out SS early but needs to post more. Simberto - Posts a lot but there are a lot of contradictions in what he says. I can provide more info if asked.
Mafia SacredSystem balt11t, probably dead
That leaves one mafia in our null list. We am more inclined to think that Zelbalde is town which leaves Cosmos, Chocolate and Simberto. Jitsu and Probu had a discussion earlier. Through the talkings, Probu urged me to read through Zelblade's filter again. I did. I see a lot of play reminiscent of a gentlemen by the name of CatsnHats, who I tunneled pretty much all game once and he turned out to be town. For right now, at least, we are going to keep it at a null read until we can make a more solid read during Day3. I see a lot of medicority. What do you think slOosh?
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On January 31 2012 11:10 Chocolate wrote:Show nested quote +I am giving leeway to SS based on my belief that Zelblade is mafia. It is conditional leeway. Hypothetically if there was room for another mafia member on the team I would totally agree with you and move to lynch SS. However because there are only 4 and I cannot see how mafia team could be Zarepath, Zelblade, balt11t and SS, I am inclined to believe SS is just a confusing, anti-town townie (much like FakePromise). I don't really like this. It seems pretty risky to let bad/scummy play go unpunished just because you don't think these two could both be mafia. Is it unlikely that they are both mafia? Yes. Is it possible? Who knows. I just think these are dangerous waters, because two players are "scummy" and yet you're only letting one actually be scum, when we still have two spots left (I'm pretty convinced balt is scum. We'll see.). I'm not "letting" one be scum. I think I made it clear in my response to Probulous that I think zelblade is much more likely to be mafia, and based off of his interactions with Sacred that it only makes sense that they are together 1 mafia and 1 town (opposed to 2 mafia).
Also, since we have a full day afterwards (48 hours) I can take in the new night information and adjust my position accordingly. It isn't as if I declared my stance and I am unmovable in my thoughts. However, I do agree with you and others when we should throw caution into the wind. It just irks me when people are overly cautious to the point that it paralyses them from moving.
As for my reads: DoYouHas: Claimed to get hit last night. Pushed forth our first mafia lynch. Unafraid to call out other townies on logical mistakes (such as mine and Simberto's). Desires more discussion and provides good analysis.
MidnightGladius: Claiming a vigi shot publically along with clear analysis against a hard time lurker. Hoping for no roleblock as getting rid of balt11t is helpful as it reduces uncertainties.
Simberto: Active, has provided new contributions (rather than always posting off of others) and has no fear of his votes getting potentially spotlighted (as he provides his reasoning every time he switches). Only thing weird about him is his WIFOMs, but I think this is because he is very, very cautious. (which I said above I don't like so I'd like to encourage him to speak with a little less fear)
balt11t: MG's case sums it up.
Zelblade: Look at my case before Bromanicipate's post and then my response to it.
SacredSystem: In the off chance that Zelblade is green, I totally agree with Bromancipate & Adam's analysis. I would have gone for him if I didn't feel so strongly about Zelblade.
Bromancipate: As stated before I forgot that he is a hydra that may have two differing opinions between the heads. I agree with the Jitsu head(?) but I'm confused how to treat them. Have to consider null until they get together, work it out and post a united viewpoint.
Chocolate: Only talks about SS in his filter and then makes the statement
On January 30 2012 02:19 Chocolate wrote: I'm voting for zarepath because he seems the most scummy out of everyone right now and because if we don't lynch today we'll be in a pretty bad position if mafia get a kill tonight. Worth looking out for.
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On January 31 2012 11:49 Bromancipate wrote: Town Bromancipate DoYouHas - His aggression to SS and his logical analysis confirms his alignment for me. The shot is an added bonus. sl0osh Adam4167 - Explained previously MG - Claimed Vig and if Balt dies is pretty much confirmed.
Null Zelblade - I can explain his actions from both a town or mafia POV so hence he is null. Jitsu is agrees with this. CosmosXAM - Hasn't posted a lot but his early pressure on Zarepath brings me back to null. He needs to be more active. Chocolate - Not much to go on. Did call out SS early but needs to post more. Simberto - Posts a lot but there are a lot of contradictions in what he says. I can provide more info if asked.
Mafia SacredSystem balt11t, probably dead
That leaves one mafia in our null list. We am more inclined to think that Zelbalde is town which leaves Cosmos, Chocolate and Simberto. Jitsu and Probu had a discussion earlier. Through the talkings, Probu urged me to read through Zelblade's filter again. I did. I see a lot of play reminiscent of a gentlemen by the name of CatsnHats, who I tunneled pretty much all game once and he turned out to be town. For right now, at least, we are going to keep it at a null read until we can make a more solid read during Day3. I see a lot of medicority. What do you think slOosh?
Ah was writing up post when you posted that. Like I said, Simberto seems like overly cautious town. I agree with you on Chocolate that beside the SS thing he hasn't posted much more, same with Cosmos (who is slightly more town imo since his relation with Zarepath). If other people like DoYouHas and Adam think that Sacred is mafia more than Zelblade I will go with that since I trust in their logical 3rd party analysis (Adam was wrong on Zarepath but had good reasoning so it is town read)
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Quick question. Are you three people or two? You switched from 3rd person to 1st so I'm not too sure of who is posting.
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My scum list: Simberto(very confident), SacredSystem(pretty confident), zarepath(dead) My town list: sl0osh, Adam, Bromancipate, CosmosXAM, zelblade, MidnightGladius(if his hit goes through)
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Incensed by the capture and execution of their comrade, the three remaining Mafia reverted to what they did best: killing innocent people. The death of their ally and fellow Mafioso demanded vengeance of the bloodest kind. In the darkest hours before dawn, the three escaped criminals lay in wait around the home of one of the town's most upstanding citizens, keeping an eye out for when he left for work in the morning. As the sky began to lighten and the first birds sang, MidnightGladius finally opened the door and started down the sidewalk for another day at the office. Right on cue, the vengeful Mafia members burst out of the trees in unison and dragged him down into an alleyway, screaming. Within the narrow alley, they descended upon MidnightGladius and stabbed him viciously all over his body.
The three Mafia members hurried away to get away from the scene of the murder, choosing a route that took them down a quiet side street. However, as they turned to run, the dying MidnightGladius grabbed the boot-knife sheathed at one of his killers' ankles and pulled it free. With a heroic effort, he threw the knife at the back of the retreating balt11t. End over end, the knife flashed toward balt11t with deadly accuracy and buried itself hilt-deep into his back. Before he even knew what had hit him, balt11t collapsed onto the ground and bled to death.
MidnightGladius the Vigilante is dead. balt11t the Mafia Goon is dead.
It is now Day Three. You have 48 hours to vote for whom to lynch. The deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00) two days from now on Wednesday, Feb. 1.
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Good luck, my comrades. Trust in Bayes!
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Alright. Looks like I have to eat some more humble pie and consider being at fault of tunnel vision once again.
I will look into DYH's reads before he posts to see if I come to same conclusions.
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Wow guess we were right about both of them, we lost another town but at least MG's shot hit. Time to start scouring for the final two mafia, I'm feeling optimistic that today's analysis on top of previous parts will bring down another mafia. Now for whom I think I would have to go with zelblade and either SS or chocolate, but zelblade is at a 75-80% probability in my mind and the others at about 60%. Not the best odds (to me at least from what I saw, this is all personal opinion) but its something to go off of at least (trying not to get tunnel vision)
P.S. My compliments to dreamflower for making the story much more interesting :D
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Well.. it might be WIFOM'ey, but if they were ever going to use a roleblock... it would have been then.
This opens up the possibility of a mass claim for blues barring the medic.
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I will be making my case against [red]Simberto[red] today. This will include why he is mafia, why he is the most dangerous to the town atm, and why he needs to be lynched today above all others. This will be another wall of text post and so I encourage you to look into him yourself since it will take me a while to write. Don't just use his filter either, you need a sense of what was going on in the thread in order to see what I've seen.
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On January 31 2012 12:26 DoYouHas wrote: I will be making my case against [red]Simberto[red] today. This will include why he is mafia, why he is the most dangerous to the town atm, and why he needs to be lynched today above all others. This will be another wall of text post and so I encourage you to look into him yourself since it will take me a while to write. Don't just use his filter either, you need a sense of what was going on in the thread in order to see what I've seen.
I like that you bring that up, I just started looking through his posts and what he reacts too, and am starting to get a feel for what you might say. Hopefully I see your post before I go to sleep, but until then I will be looking into him more.
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One thing I would like to point out right now because I might not have time to post again is that Simberto targets zelblade nearly 100% of the time only when it seems like there is no way zelblade is talked about or targeted by others does he seem to talk about others. This just rubs me the wrong way but its not truly condemning until further evidence might show up.
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Tried as hard as I could to look objectively without bias. Skimmed for feel rather than filter / point by point to help avoid confirmation bias. My thoughts (before I influence myself with DYH's points to see if they match up) + Show Spoiler +Biggest thing is his constant insistence on Zelblade from day 1. Again and again he brings up the name. Is it that the way he does it is suspicious? His liberal usage of the word scummy? I looked at my filter (for the first time, and it was weird O.o) and tried comparing how we both push for the lynch. I guess I'm very straightforward with my intentions with a clear reminder of $$Vote Zelblade while Simberto drops his name here and there, usually with some other names as to disguise it? On January 28 2012 17:35 Simberto wrote: Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment. This was one of the WIFOM things I talked about in my Simberto town read. I thought he was overly cautious. My objective analysis posted a few minutes before: On January 31 2012 11:51 slOosh wrote: Also, since we have a full day afterwards (48 hours) I can take in the new night information and adjust my position accordingly. It isn't as if I declared my stance and I am unmovable in my thoughts. However, I do agree with you and others when we should throw caution into the wind. It just irks me when people are overly cautious to the point that it paralyses them from moving.
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Simberto: Active, has provided new contributions (rather than always posting off of others) and has no fear of his votes getting potentially spotlighted (as he provides his reasoning every time he switches). Only thing weird about him is his WIFOMs, but I think this is because he is very, very cautious. (which I said above I don't like so I'd like to encourage him to speak with a little less fear)
Is this a sign of mafia? Being overly cautious? On January 28 2012 12:05 Simberto wrote: Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody. I read somewhere (Mafiascum) that people who congratulate medic saves (dunno why he assumed that it was medic not vet) are most likely mafia or the medic themselves. But since it is my first game I really didn't know if this was reliable or not.
But then again I have this bias where I trust DYH's thoughts, and its hard to distinguish if I like his logic or the fact that he is town I trust (who happens to provide good analysis).
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Simberto's Filter Simberto established himself early as someone that many of us trusted. He did this with his general activity level and his sincere efforts to focus on and pressure lurkers. What exactly did he do with his unquestioned position in the town? Very little. He has consistently thrown his suspicion on zelblade, but has never bothered to put together a strong, focused case or push hard. The closest he comes is this post + Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 12:03 Simberto wrote:Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online. Anyways, here is my conclusion. I would prefer if you try to look at how day 1 evolved with an open mind yourself before reading it to avoid confirmation bias, though. + Show Spoiler +I find the whole of day 1 interestingly consistent with a hypothesis of a mafia group consisting of zelbalde, SacredSystem, CosmosXAM and balt11tFakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk.
Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
Now, at day 1, mafia who just wanted to be completely comfortable in their own room suddenly got attacked by the first post, pretty randomly. Not really a problem, just need to assault the idea of a random lynch, and maybe attack some other person who is at hand. Now, they point a bit onto FakePromise. Zelblade tries to post something inconspicious to not be the person of interest anymore, and makes the "to town" slip: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
This puts him under scrutiny and into the spotlight. Anything he says now is constructed negatively. So mafia try again to push the spotlight onto someone else, the old target. My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post.
As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned. Now, we have one thing that i am not exactly sure of, which is Midnight attacking FakePromise, but maybe he really only want's to get lurkers to post. I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast.
Now this by CosmosXAM, this is just weird. Doesn't it sound like he is not defending FakePromise, but actually zelblade? To me it does. Then, we have SacredSystem answering a question directed to CosmosXAM. If that is not scummy, i don't know what is. On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:
Right, we've moved on past random lynching.
Who do you think is suspicious? you and fakepromise you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you And FakePromise comes up again. Note that up to this point, the spotlight was very much on zelblade only. CosmosXAM states the exact same thing afterwards, with the added OMGUS onto Chocolate. Now DoYouHas votes on zelblade, and instantly afterwards SacredSystem votes for FakePromise. Just look at it: Every time one of those four gets into trouble (zelblade and CosmosXAM), something from one of the others happens that redirects the thread towards FakePromise. As soon as Zarepath brings up Cosmos as an alternate lynch target, zelblade votes onto FakePromise. When they are equal on votes, balt11t very fastly votes for FakePromise to make him lead again. Now, take a look at the votes list. Interestingly enough, this team has votes 2, 4 and 6 on FakePromise. As i said before, 3 votes expected, and of course never vote in tandem to avoid suspicion. Now, i know that all of this hangs on zelblade being mafia, but this is my take on the situation at the moment. I would really like to hear what others think about it. which spreads the focus over 4 players. Hardly a post to get 1 person lynched over. And this is very common for Simberto. He has spread his suspicion around throughout this game. Just enough that he can justify voting for pretty much anyone, especially lurkers. Quoting all the posts where he does this would be cumbersome so here. (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) How has he used his voting? To flip-flop and bandwagon. Day1, first FakePromise, then CosmosXAM, then Zarepath, then back to Fakepromise. I'm not going to criticize for his early arguments against FakePromise, it doesn't distinguish him from the crowd. However, I think his 2 posts that contain the vote change from CosmosXAM to Zarepath and Zarepath back to Fakepromise are extremely interesting. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 09:26 Simberto wrote: Very interesting. After reading this, and rereading Zarepaths filter 2 times, I can definitively see what you mean. Noticeable is that Zarepaths only real contribution was to defend FakePromise, which makes both of them extremely linked in my opinion.
If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me.
I will probably stay up a bit later tonight (this is far too interesting), so if we for some reason absolutely can't get a lynch onto Zarepath, i will change my vote to FakePromise. Please, everyone who wants to lynch Zarepath react as fast as possible, and everyone who does not want to do that, also react fast (and especially give reasons). We are running on limited time now, so i suggest that we concentrate on this one instead of half a dozen half-cases like we did before.
##unvote CosmosXAM ##vote Zarepath On January 27 2012 11:18 Simberto wrote: Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe).
##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise The bolded part of the first post is some extremely flawed logic which only has the purpose of pushing a day2 FakePromise lynch even if zarepath is to die. I pointed out the flaw in this logic when it happened with this post, My Post. My post is ignored, and this same bad logic pops up when he switches his vote back to FakePromise, this time a green flip is supposed to mean that the case on zarepath is based on poor assumptions and he is also green. Italicized is Simberto's call to pile onto FakePromise which would have the dual function of making the lynch safe and masking bandwagoners, of which he is one. Day2 his voting is equally strange when you look at the posts that go along with it. He starts with a vote against zelblade, yet again without a strong case to back it up. Neither does he try to make this case later. Then we get a little filler on the reasons to claim a hit and how to do it. And then we get these 2 strange posts preceding his vote switch to zarepath. + Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote: I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes. On January 30 2012 07:27 Simberto wrote: At this point, zarepath is dead. I must say that i am getting slightly suspicious of this action beacuse of the limited resistence it is met with. Either mafia has decided that he is unsafeable and don't want to invest to heavily in trying to defend him, or he is not really mafia.
Anyways the case is still pretty good, so we will see how he flips, and then go from there. My vote on zelblade is obviously useless at this point, so i will switch it over to zarepath, this way there are 9 people on him, so even if mafia decides to do something last-minute, they will still need to get 2 people of him. I also find it interesting how late people place their vote even though i though we wanted to place them as early as possible for transparency reasons. Not to mention balt11t being completely vanished and maybe even getting modkilled at this point.
##unvote zelblade ##vote zarepath This first post contains an outright error on top of being fishy. Zelblade's original attack on SacredSystem came before my announced suspicion on zarepath, and his original case on SacredSystem came out before my analysis of zarepath. Simberto is linking zelblade's guilt with zarepath's, just like he did with FakePromise. Then he states that my case against zarepath is strong, that his own logic only strengthens my case, and that he found more inconsistencies on top the ones I pointed out. And yet, this is not enough to get him to change his vote. This sounds to me like he is keeping his options open. In his second post he is switching his vote not because he has become more convinced of zarepath's guilt. Rather, he has become less convinced because of the lack of resistance to a zarepath lynch. Simberto cites the inevitability of a zarepath lynch and hops aboard in order to make it safe. Note that he never seems to display conviction in the guilt of the people he is voting for, with the possible exception of zelblade, but I think I have already explained the strangeness of that situation.
Then there are Simberto's unexplained logical mistakes. I have already pointed out one of them where I tried to correct Simberto and was ignored. Another is a more recent exchange where Simberto was downplaying the likelihood of a godfather being in the game because zarepath had not been the godfather. Start of the Exchange Not only is this wrong, as I pointed out, but it is a message that zarepath also used. Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather. It is pretty clear to me that the likelihood of the mafia having a godfather has gone way up since MidnightGladius's shot was not roleblocked. As a town we know that we have at least 2 blue roles, this raises the chances of mafia having at least 1 non-goon role, and I think it is safe to say that it isn't a roleblocker.
In conclusion, Simberto was in a position of trust and influence and has done very little with it. He has contented himself with conspiracy theories instead of actively pushing the lynching of a player he finds suspicious. This, combined with his scummy voting record and breaks in logic which favor the mafia are why I am confident that Simberto is scum.
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I almost forgot to answer "why Simberto is the most dangerous, and why he needs to die today". Simberto is the most dangerous scum because he has so neatly avoided most people's mafia lists. He needs to die today because not only is he scum, but confirmation of that will give us a lot of information about zelblade, SacredSystem, and that whole situation in general.
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Ok, i will respond to all suspicions in order, but this may take some time.
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On January 31 2012 08:01 Bromancipate wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 16:24 Simberto wrote: Ok. With the information that Zarepath is mafia, i don't think we should lynch either SacredSystem or CosmosXAM too soon, seeing as CosmosXAM was brought up as an alternative to FakePromise on day 1, which would be a pretty good thing to do to both make yourself look town by contributing original ideas, and have a lynch debate where both targets are town, which is an ideal situation for mafia to be in since they can easily honestly contribute (this might be an elaborate ruse, but i don't think so, it just feels like it would be pretty risky if Cosmos is mafia)
For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia.
Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case. Alright, there seems to be some suspicion on me which is fine. I would encourage people to read my filter (it's short) and let me know what you think. I will get to sl0osh in a moment. Sim this part of your post is a little weird to me. That first paragrpah is WIFOM with no conclusion. You say we shouldn't lynch Cosmos because you don't think that we could spot a mafia on Day 1? Explain.
No, that is absolutely not what i was saying. What i was doing was looking at the situation with the knowledge that Zarepath is mafia. Not every try to analyse mafia intentions is WIFOM. My conclusions was that under the knowledge that zarepath is mafia, I find it very likely that CosmosXAM is town. Not sure, but very likely. Thus, there are other people one should lynch other, more suspicious people first.
Bromancipate
SacredSystems alignment does not hang out zelblade's flip. I have made my feelings about zelblade clear and the same for SS. But just because zelblade targeted SS does not mean they are on opposite teams. Again in Newbie II mafia used exactly this tactic so that people would make the jump you just made. I repeat the flip of zelblade does not tell you wether SS is scum or not.
I believe he is based on his posting. But I don't think zelblade is scum. So if we do go ahead and lynch zelblade and he flips town, well that makes SS look bad in your eyes, which is fine with me. But don't drop suspicion of SS if zelblade turns out to be scum.
This is not what i was saying. What i said was that under the assumption that zelblade is scum, which i believe is true, it is unlikely that SacredSystem is Scum, too. Thus, the thing hanging on zelblades scumminess i meant is not SacredSystems alignment, but my argument in that paragraph. Also, the other point of that paragraph is that the only attempt to divert attention away from zarepath is zelblades aggression onto SacredSystem, which with the knowledge that Zarepath is mafia makes zelblade look scummy.
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I wonder if one mafia would have the cheek to volunteer another mafia for a 'random' lynch in his first post... wouldn't be what id do, but doesn't make it impossible.
That said, where are you Zelblade? What are your reads like? Who should we hang today?
I find it concerning that people disappear from the thread as soon as the heat on them lessens. (aimed largely at Zelblade and SacredSystem).
Chocolate, you asked why I put you in a 'probable mafia' list, I tell you its for lurking and your response is... to not post anymore? Are you mocking me or what.. give us some leads.
Ill go take a good hard look at Simberto's filter. I found his inactivity on day 2 suspicious, time to check if there's anything to it.
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Just got back from school, catching up on the thread right now.
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On January 31 2012 00:21 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 22:11 zelblade wrote:On January 30 2012 13:35 slOosh wrote:Ehh.... On January 29 2012 05:07 zelblade wrote:On January 29 2012 04:50 SacredSystem wrote: i agree with doyouhas i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me? i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1 Are you confusing me with zarepath or something? I am the one that attacked you, not him. Establishing that Zarepath did not attack SS. I wasnt trying to establish that zarepath didnt attack SS. That post was really goddammed wierd, and I couldnt understand it, and I believed that he might be confusing me and zarepath, and I just asked him to clarify.(which he did) Really dont see how clarifying about a confusing post that confused me is scummy. On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:On January 30 2012 07:18 Adam4167 wrote: Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.
This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.
Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.
There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.
I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.
I think his team did abandon him. And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis. So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this). If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. Copies my post and then misdirects us to focus on lurkers (we're nailing balt11t and town presence is strong enough that we don't need lurkers to find mafia). Does exactly what I guessed. Remember to $$Vote ZelbladeWhen i posted this post, I was in a rush to go out and didnt have time to read through the thread properly. Only skimmed through the posts after the day post before typing that before going out. I didnt actually see that you had already posted that. Clarifying a confusing post is fine. It's the manner in which you did it that is strange. I don't see how that second sentence "I am the one that attacked you, not him" is necessary. All it does is try to clear Zarepath of suspicion (from Sacred at least) And with your post that was "written in haste": Show nested quote +Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. That's a pretty big logical jump you made there. Premise: Almost everyone voted Zarepath. Conclusion. Mafia have little to no thread presence. Its too big to be an oversight caused to due hastiness. This oversight is because you are working off already existing ideas (namely mine) and thus felt no need to explain your thinking process. Anyways I am dead set against you and you will be next up for lynch. Day 1 info was good enough for me to lynch you and this new stuff isn't clearing you at all. Remember guys $$Vote Zelblade
I really dont see how that one statement is scummy at all. That post was, as said really bloody confusing and i dont see in any way how it is strange. The 2nd sentance is just an explanation I believed that he had made a mistake. You seriously are reading too much into this and I am in no way trying to push away suspision from zarepath.
As for the 2nd part, I was already thinking that the lynch seemed really easy with basically little to no defence whilst i was sleeping, and I thought that it might be a mislynch due to the lack of defence. When he flipped scum, I simply came to the conclusion that the remaining mafia probably arent very infulential in the thread. Could have typed that out, but as i said, I was in a rush.
I seriously think that you are tunneling me at this point.
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On January 31 2012 12:56 slOosh wrote: I read somewhere (Mafiascum) that people who congratulate medic saves (dunno why he assumed that it was medic not vet) are most likely mafia or the medic themselves. But since it is my first game I really didn't know if this was reliable or not.
Never did i assume that it was a medic over a vet. Also, i was very clear in stating that that knowledge is not something that should be put in the open. As to your point of my cautiousness and lowered activity over the weekend, this was mostly based on the way i was apparently played by mafia on day one, which made me much more suspicious of what i think. And i am always mentioning zelblade because i think he is mafia, but we always have a better target to go for with a lynch. I don't want him to get totally out of the spotlight again.
On January 31 2012 15:23 DoYouHas wrote:Simberto's FilterSimberto established himself early as someone that many of us trusted. He did this with his general activity level and his sincere efforts to focus on and pressure lurkers. What exactly did he do with his unquestioned position in the town? Very little. He has consistently thrown his suspicion on zelblade, but has never bothered to put together a strong, focused case or push hard. The closest he comes is this post + Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 12:03 Simberto wrote:Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online. Anyways, here is my conclusion. I would prefer if you try to look at how day 1 evolved with an open mind yourself before reading it to avoid confirmation bias, though. + Show Spoiler +I find the whole of day 1 interestingly consistent with a hypothesis of a mafia group consisting of zelbalde, SacredSystem, CosmosXAM and balt11tFakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk.
Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
Now, at day 1, mafia who just wanted to be completely comfortable in their own room suddenly got attacked by the first post, pretty randomly. Not really a problem, just need to assault the idea of a random lynch, and maybe attack some other person who is at hand. Now, they point a bit onto FakePromise. Zelblade tries to post something inconspicious to not be the person of interest anymore, and makes the "to town" slip: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
This puts him under scrutiny and into the spotlight. Anything he says now is constructed negatively. So mafia try again to push the spotlight onto someone else, the old target. My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post.
As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned. Now, we have one thing that i am not exactly sure of, which is Midnight attacking FakePromise, but maybe he really only want's to get lurkers to post. I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast.
Now this by CosmosXAM, this is just weird. Doesn't it sound like he is not defending FakePromise, but actually zelblade? To me it does. Then, we have SacredSystem answering a question directed to CosmosXAM. If that is not scummy, i don't know what is. On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:
Right, we've moved on past random lynching.
Who do you think is suspicious? you and fakepromise you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you And FakePromise comes up again. Note that up to this point, the spotlight was very much on zelblade only. CosmosXAM states the exact same thing afterwards, with the added OMGUS onto Chocolate. Now DoYouHas votes on zelblade, and instantly afterwards SacredSystem votes for FakePromise. Just look at it: Every time one of those four gets into trouble (zelblade and CosmosXAM), something from one of the others happens that redirects the thread towards FakePromise. As soon as Zarepath brings up Cosmos as an alternate lynch target, zelblade votes onto FakePromise. When they are equal on votes, balt11t very fastly votes for FakePromise to make him lead again. Now, take a look at the votes list. Interestingly enough, this team has votes 2, 4 and 6 on FakePromise. As i said before, 3 votes expected, and of course never vote in tandem to avoid suspicion. Now, i know that all of this hangs on zelblade being mafia, but this is my take on the situation at the moment. I would really like to hear what others think about it. which spreads the focus over 4 players. Hardly a post to get 1 person lynched over. And this is very common for Simberto. He has spread his suspicion around throughout this game. Just enough that he can justify voting for pretty much anyone, especially lurkers. Quoting all the posts where he does this would be cumbersome so here. (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
You are absolutely correct, i should have been more focussed. I mostly wrote everything i found suspicious into the thread, partly to further discussion and partly to make my complete stance clear, instead of focussing on one person, which would have been the smarter idea.
DoYouHas How has he used his voting? To flip-flop and bandwagon. Day1, first FakePromise, then CosmosXAM, then Zarepath, then back to Fakepromise. I'm not going to criticize for his early arguments against FakePromise, it doesn't distinguish him from the crowd. However, I think his 2 posts that contain the vote change from CosmosXAM to Zarepath and Zarepath back to Fakepromise are extremely interesting. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 09:26 Simberto wrote: Very interesting. After reading this, and rereading Zarepaths filter 2 times, I can definitively see what you mean. Noticeable is that Zarepaths only real contribution was to defend FakePromise, which makes both of them extremely linked in my opinion.
If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me.
I will probably stay up a bit later tonight (this is far too interesting), so if we for some reason absolutely can't get a lynch onto Zarepath, i will change my vote to FakePromise. Please, everyone who wants to lynch Zarepath react as fast as possible, and everyone who does not want to do that, also react fast (and especially give reasons). We are running on limited time now, so i suggest that we concentrate on this one instead of half a dozen half-cases like we did before.
##unvote CosmosXAM ##vote Zarepath On January 27 2012 11:18 Simberto wrote: Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe).
##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise The bolded part of the first post is some extremely flawed logic which only has the purpose of pushing a day2 FakePromise lynch even if zarepath is to die. I pointed out the flaw in this logic when it happened with this post, My Post. My post is ignored, and this same bad logic pops up when he switches his vote back to FakePromise, this time a green flip is supposed to mean that the case on zarepath is based on poor assumptions and he is also green. Italicized is Simberto's call to pile onto FakePromise which would have the dual function of making the lynch safe and masking bandwagoners, of which he is one.
Oh my, that really looks scummy with the knowledge that zarepath was red and fakepromise green, even to me. One important thing to notice, however, is that i was the first person to support the zarepath case with that post, and i sincerely hoped for more people to jump onto it. Then, when i noticed that we would not manage a vote for him (45 min before deadline there were 4 votes on zarepath), i changed to FakePromise because i was of the firm assumption that he, too, was a good lynch. I don't think anyone can really argue that he was one, either.
The rest is just me tripping into now-obvious mafia traps, which weren't that obvious at that point. Also, regarding the argument about the italicized part, one should notice that noone else jumped into it afterwards. You may now call this WIFOM, but it is really not. Sure, I was bandwagoning, but i really did not want to waste a day without a lynch when fakepromise was a perfectly good target.
DoYouHas Day2 his voting is equally strange when you look at the posts that go along with it. He starts with a vote against zelblade, yet again without a strong case to back it up. Neither does he try to make this case later. Then we get a little filler on the reasons to claim a hit and how to do it. And then we get these 2 strange posts preceding his vote switch to zarepath. + Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote: I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes. On January 30 2012 07:27 Simberto wrote: At this point, zarepath is dead. I must say that i am getting slightly suspicious of this action beacuse of the limited resistence it is met with. Either mafia has decided that he is unsafeable and don't want to invest to heavily in trying to defend him, or he is not really mafia.
Anyways the case is still pretty good, so we will see how he flips, and then go from there. My vote on zelblade is obviously useless at this point, so i will switch it over to zarepath, this way there are 9 people on him, so even if mafia decides to do something last-minute, they will still need to get 2 people of him. I also find it interesting how late people place their vote even though i though we wanted to place them as early as possible for transparency reasons. Not to mention balt11t being completely vanished and maybe even getting modkilled at this point.
##unvote zelblade ##vote zarepath This first post contains an outright error on top of being fishy. Zelblade's original attack on SacredSystem came before my announced suspicion on zarepath, and his original case on SacredSystem came out before my analysis of zarepath. Simberto is linking zelblade's guilt with zarepath's, just like he did with FakePromise. Then he states that my case against zarepath is strong, that his own logic only strengthens my case, and that he found more inconsistencies on top the ones I pointed out. And yet, this is not enough to get him to change his vote. This sounds to me like he is keeping his options open. In his second post he is switching his vote not because he has become more convinced of zarepath's guilt. Rather, he has become less convinced because of the lack of resistance to a zarepath lynch. Simberto cites the inevitability of a zarepath lynch and hops aboard in order to make it safe. Note that he never seems to display conviction in the guilt of the people he is voting for, with the possible exception of zelblade, but I think I have already explained the strangeness of that situation.
Note that all of this followed a case of yours in which you basically explained how i got completely played by mafia throughout the whole of Day1. I hope you see how i become more conscious about changing my vote afterwards, and don't want to be the influential factor again. Also, i was still convinced that zelblade was the better lynch, and thus left my vote on him to open up that avenue for others. But i should probably have made a better case against him. I felt like i hade made my reasons to believe that more clear in earlier posts, especially since zelblade seems to perfectly fit into every mafia group built up at that point. As to the error, you are correct. I am not sure how that happened, i was absolutely convinced that the chronology was differently, even upon reading it multiple times. I think i simply missed that first post and only noticed the one after yours.
DoYouHas Then there are Simberto's unexplained logical mistakes. I have already pointed out one of them where I tried to correct Simberto and was ignored. Another is a more recent exchange where Simberto was downplaying the likelihood of a godfather being in the game because zarepath had not been the godfather. Start of the Exchange Not only is this wrong, as I pointed out, but it is a message that zarepath also used. Show nested quote +Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather. It is pretty clear to me that the likelihood of the mafia having a godfather has gone way up since MidnightGladius's shot was not roleblocked. As a town we know that we have at least 2 blue roles, this raises the chances of mafia having at least 1 non-goon role, and I think it is safe to say that it isn't a roleblocker.
I still stand by the reasoning that if mafia had a godfather, it would with high probability have been zarepath. I agree that mafia does not have a roleblocker, that is quite obvious now. If mafia has a powerrole, it is a godfather. And actually, the only person who needs to be interested in a godfather is a detective anyways, and upon rethinking it, if we have a detective in addition to those two blues we already know of, the mafia probably has a godfather too. Before, i ignored the fact that we would need a detective for a godfather to be relevant, and thought that us having two power roles would be a pretty fair offset for mafia being more populous then expected.
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The case of simbertoe is pretty interesting and i think that it raises alot of valid points. From memory, it seems like he is the one constantly attempting to push for my lynch the most, but never actually making an actual case except for his day 1 case on me and a few others. (cant remember who at this point, will look later) Besides, he seems to always make cases that hang on my "scumniness". At first I thought that it could just be him tunneling me due to my pretty bad day 1 posting, but it seems a litte suspicious.
As for my reads (Stupid timezones cant post before nightpost =/)
Bromancipate - Dont think that he is scum due to his good posts.
SacredSystem - Already explained why I think he is scum in my day 2 case, still hasnt stepped up yet, posts still unclear.
Chocolate - No idea due to inactivity, voted rather late for zarepath, could be mafia if SS/simbertoe doesnt flip red.
DoYouHas - Claimed shot, no counterclaim. Excellent posting and started the zarepath lynch.
CosmosXAM - First to push zarepath (day1), dont think he is scum.
Adam4167 - Pushes SS who i believe is scum, posts make sense.
Simberto - Explained (briefly). Will go through his filter in a bit and make a proper analysis.
slOosh - Active, good posting, though I believe he is probably tunneling me =(
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I only have one e in my name.
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Alright took a look at simberto's filter. The points DYH makes are valid. Besides me and the lurkers(which are easy to attack without providing much reasoning), he has never pushed any1 else, and even with me, not made a strong case at all and pushed it. I think that DYH has summed up very well why Simberto is likely to flip scum.
Also one thing that I feel is wierd:
Simberto Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
It seems like he is attempting to be casting doubt onto DYH at this point. I understand this is a minor point, but i feel that it is really wierd.
Anyway, I do think that it is likely that Simberto will flip scum. SS (or maybe chocolate) is probably the last scum.
##vote: Simberto
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On January 31 2012 19:21 zelblade wrote:Alright took a look at simberto's filter. The points DYH makes are valid. Besides me and the lurkers(which are easy to attack without providing much reasoning), he has never pushed any1 else, and even with me, not made a strong case at all and pushed it. I think that DYH has summed up very well why Simberto is likely to flip scum. Also one thing that I feel is wierd: Show nested quote +Simberto Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
It seems like he is attempting to be casting doubt onto DYH at this point. I understand this is a minor point, but i feel that it is really wierd.
Well, at that point everyone took his towniness as completely confirmed, when it was, in fact, not. I found it important to put that out to prevent people ignoring possibilities. I already responded to DoYouHas accusations above.
Anyway, I do think that it is likely that Simberto will flip scum. SS (or maybe chocolate) is probably the last scum.
##vote: Simberto
You are wrong about that. I am innocent, and will do anything necessary to prove it. I made some mistakes during day1, most of which consisted of being to easily influenced, and when i realised that afterwards (through the day2 zarepath case), i decided to be much more careful when posting and to be more sure of that what i am posting is what i myself actually think, and not me confirmation-biasing what someone else posted before. As a result, i posted less and less specific things. This is now being constructed as a scummy change of behaviour, when it really is the only logical way to react.
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On January 31 2012 18:21 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2012 00:21 slOosh wrote:On January 30 2012 22:11 zelblade wrote:On January 30 2012 13:35 slOosh wrote:Ehh.... On January 29 2012 05:07 zelblade wrote:On January 29 2012 04:50 SacredSystem wrote: i agree with doyouhas i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me? i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1 Are you confusing me with zarepath or something? I am the one that attacked you, not him. Establishing that Zarepath did not attack SS. I wasnt trying to establish that zarepath didnt attack SS. That post was really goddammed wierd, and I couldnt understand it, and I believed that he might be confusing me and zarepath, and I just asked him to clarify.(which he did) Really dont see how clarifying about a confusing post that confused me is scummy. On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:On January 30 2012 07:18 Adam4167 wrote: Well, as it stands, zarepath now has 8 votes on him.
This can only mean one thing. There are mafia voting for him.
Since I know I'm town, at least one of the mafia team (if not more) are on this vote.
There's always the possibility that his team has abandoned him, but I am really doubting it at this point. There's been almost no opposition to this lynch other then myself, and no other real case has appeared on day 2 other then mine on SacredSystem. Lynches that go too easy are almost universally mislynches.
I concede that no other lynch is going through considering we are ~5 hours to crunch-time and everyone seems pretty sold on this one. Ill shift my vote closer to the deadline to prevent some kind of mass-unvote shenanigans if he is indeed mafia.
I think his team did abandon him. And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis. So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this). If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. Copies my post and then misdirects us to focus on lurkers (we're nailing balt11t and town presence is strong enough that we don't need lurkers to find mafia). Does exactly what I guessed. Remember to $$Vote ZelbladeWhen i posted this post, I was in a rush to go out and didnt have time to read through the thread properly. Only skimmed through the posts after the day post before typing that before going out. I didnt actually see that you had already posted that. Clarifying a confusing post is fine. It's the manner in which you did it that is strange. I don't see how that second sentence "I am the one that attacked you, not him" is necessary. All it does is try to clear Zarepath of suspicion (from Sacred at least) And with your post that was "written in haste": Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. That's a pretty big logical jump you made there. Premise: Almost everyone voted Zarepath. Conclusion. Mafia have little to no thread presence. Its too big to be an oversight caused to due hastiness. This oversight is because you are working off already existing ideas (namely mine) and thus felt no need to explain your thinking process. Anyways I am dead set against you and you will be next up for lynch. Day 1 info was good enough for me to lynch you and this new stuff isn't clearing you at all. Remember guys $$Vote Zelblade I really dont see how that one statement is scummy at all. That post was, as said really bloody confusing and i dont see in any way how it is strange. The 2nd sentance is just an explanation I believed that he had made a mistake. You seriously are reading too much into this and I am in no way trying to push away suspision from zarepath. As for the 2nd part, I was already thinking that the lynch seemed really easy with basically little to no defence whilst i was sleeping, and I thought that it might be a mislynch due to the lack of defence. When he flipped scum, I simply came to the conclusion that the remaining mafia probably arent very infulential in the thread. Could have typed that out, but as i said, I was in a rush. I seriously think that you are tunneling me at this point. I am inclined to believe Bromancipate's objective analysis of my thought process and I have to agree with you. (I don't know why I was so sold out on you being mafia, even though objectively SS is a much more anti-town poster. Ha, I guess I am a clear case of this) I am sorry for tunneling, and thank you Probulous for straight up pointing it out. Will be posting on Simberto thoughts soon.
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To Simberto:
On January 31 2012 18:31 Simberto wrote: Note that all of this followed a case of yours in which you basically explained how i got completely played by mafia throughout the whole of Day1. I hope you see how i become more conscious about changing my vote afterwards, and don't want to be the influential factor again. Also, i was still convinced that zelblade was the better lynch, and thus left my vote on him to open up that avenue for others. But i should probably have made a better case against him. I felt like i hade made my reasons to believe that more clear in earlier posts, especially since zelblade seems to perfectly fit into every mafia group built up at that point. As to the error, you are correct. I am not sure how that happened, i was absolutely convinced that the chronology was differently, even upon reading it multiple times. I think i simply missed that first post and only noticed the one after yours.
Could you explain what you mean by being the "influential factor"? I don't think you had a vote that decided the lynch or not, nor does it make sense that you don't want to be influential. Are you so scared of making mistakes that you fear influence?
Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is? It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him.
On January 31 2012 20:02 Simberto wrote: You are wrong about that. I am innocent, and will do anything necessary to prove it. I made some mistakes during day1, most of which consisted of being to easily influenced, and when i realised that afterwards (through the day2 zarepath case), i decided to be much more careful when posting and to be more sure of that what i am posting is what i myself actually think, and not me confirmation-biasing what someone else posted before. As a result, i posted less and less specific things. This is now being constructed as a scummy change of behaviour, when it really is the only logical way to react. How is it logical to post less transparently and clearly? I posted very clearly and it was great because others have pointed out logical fallacies in my thoughts, which is exactly what I welcome and want as a town. If you are so scared of being wrong and making mistakes, the logical response is putting everything out there and welcoming critique, not hiding it all.
On January 26 2012 04:00 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and
I honestly thought this was a terrible typo since 1) I'm the one who noted that, and more importantly 2) zarepath never actually pointed anything about zelblade as his only justification was his random lynch process.
But now .... it's not looking so good.
I really want to hear your responses and explanations Simberto.
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On February 01 2012 00:38 slOosh wrote:To Simberto: Show nested quote +On January 31 2012 18:31 Simberto wrote: Note that all of this followed a case of yours in which you basically explained how i got completely played by mafia throughout the whole of Day1. I hope you see how i become more conscious about changing my vote afterwards, and don't want to be the influential factor again. Also, i was still convinced that zelblade was the better lynch, and thus left my vote on him to open up that avenue for others. But i should probably have made a better case against him. I felt like i hade made my reasons to believe that more clear in earlier posts, especially since zelblade seems to perfectly fit into every mafia group built up at that point. As to the error, you are correct. I am not sure how that happened, i was absolutely convinced that the chronology was differently, even upon reading it multiple times. I think i simply missed that first post and only noticed the one after yours.
Could you explain what you mean by being the "influential factor"? I don't think you had a vote that decided the lynch or not, nor does it make sense that you don't want to be influential. Are you so scared of making mistakes that you fear influence?
As it turned out, during day1, i got abused by mafia to promote their lynches, as in the FakePromise vs CosmosXAMs case where i basically did exactly what they wanted me to. Thus, i became more careful and did not want to instantly jump onto any lynch that appeared when i was convinced that an other lynch might have been better. I feared that if i switch onto zarepath, others would follow without thinking, as it apparently happened during day1.
On an other note, it was my vote that decided the lynch on FakePromise vs a nolynch. Now, this might not be a necessarily good thing with hindsight, but i stand by my decision at that point in time that it was better to lynch FakePromise then nolynch with the information we had then.
Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is? It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him.
Not necessarily "not allowed", but still, people who would be inclined to vote zelblade are much more unlikely to do so if they notice that noone else is voting for him.
Show nested quote +On January 31 2012 20:02 Simberto wrote: You are wrong about that. I am innocent, and will do anything necessary to prove it. I made some mistakes during day1, most of which consisted of being to easily influenced, and when i realised that afterwards (through the day2 zarepath case), i decided to be much more careful when posting and to be more sure of that what i am posting is what i myself actually think, and not me confirmation-biasing what someone else posted before. As a result, i posted less and less specific things. This is now being constructed as a scummy change of behaviour, when it really is the only logical way to react. How is it logical to post less transparently and clearly? I posted very clearly and it was great because others have pointed out logical fallacies in my thoughts, which is exactly what I welcome and want as a town. If you are so scared of being wrong and making mistakes, the logical response is putting everything out there and welcoming critique, not hiding it all.
It is logical to remove myself a bit from the spotlight when it turns out that I have been manipulated the whole time, AND I don't know who all the people manipulating me are. Also, apparently i was a good tool in manipulating the rest of town. Now, as a conclusion, while i tried to figure out who manipulates me which way, i can at least avoid spreading that manipulation further.
Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 04:00 Simberto wrote:On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and I honestly thought this was a terrible typo since 1) I'm the one who noted that, and more importantly 2) zarepath never actually pointed anything about zelblade as his only justification was his random lynch process. But now .... it's not looking so good. I really want to hear your responses and explanations Simberto.
I seriously don't know what that is.
I assume that i was thinking about something else related to zarepath at that moment, and thus used the wrong name. I will look at that specific post in context to try to make sense of it.
So far, even though this will probably be called WIFOM even though it is not, why would i do that intentionally if i was mafia? I don't see any way that would make sense at all.
And if it is just a typo, i don't see how it would make me look any more or any less scummy, since i could have made that typo/being distracted if i was mafia just the way i made it now.
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Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not.
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And to avoid this whole thing being to one-sided, i want to point out two significantly non-scummy things i did.
I was the first person to be suspicious of balt11t because of the way he attacked FakePromise, even though i should have followed that through after FakePromise flipped green. At least i hope that some of the suspicion that was on him is a result of that.
I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him.
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On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote: As it turned out, during day1, i got abused by mafia to promote their lynches, as in the FakePromise vs CosmosXAMs case where i basically did exactly what they wanted me to. Thus, i became more careful and did not want to instantly jump onto any lynch that appeared when i was convinced that an other lynch might have been better. I feared that if i switch onto zarepath, others would follow without thinking, as it apparently happened during day1. On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 00:38 slOosh wrote: Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is? It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him.
Not necessarily "not allowed", but still, people who would be inclined to vote zelblade are much more unlikely to do so if they notice that noone else is voting for him. First you say that you fear voting as others would follow without reason. Then you actually go and vote early on without that fear on day 2.
As most of your defense seems to be self-victimization right now, this is a glaring contradiction in your thoughts and actions. Glaring because you assert that you were "abused" and "manipulated" to explain your non-commital actions but then you go and do exactly what you said you were trying so hard to avoid.
On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote: Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not. This is weak defense since you found a hypothetical thought that can explain the situation and then believe it. It is weak since you are the one who brings up the most WIFOMs and urges caution in everyone esp. with the DoYouHas' hit claim, yet your thinking process is "oh this thought explains my actions, so it must have been what I was thinking".
On February 01 2012 01:24 Simberto wrote: And to avoid this whole thing being to one-sided, i want to point out two significantly non-scummy things i did.
I was the first person to be suspicious of balt11t because of the way he attacked FakePromise, even though i should have followed that through after FakePromise flipped green. At least i hope that some of the suspicion that was on him is a result of that.
I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him. You were suspicious of all the lurkers as were we. Being the first to do so doesn't really mean it is "significantly non-scummy". Honestly it was MidnightGladius who gets all the credit for pegging him with the vig shot. Everyone treated him as 2nd priority lurker.
DoYouHas points out in his Zarepath case that I was slow in posting my case against Zarepath on day 1 that we did not have enough time to swing the vote. You are trying to claim credit for hypothetical situations.
Since you claim not mafia and there are two remaining, beside Zelblade who do you think the last mafia is and why?
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On February 01 2012 01:24 Simberto wrote: I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him. Being the first to switch to zarepath loses some of its redeeming value when you consider the timing. I distinctly remember not wanting to be the first person to switch to zarepath because I thought there was not enough time to swing 6 votes and I didn't want to give the mafia another reason to kill me. On top of that your post that went with your switch to zarepath essentially said, "If you think zarepath is mafia it means that FakePromise is mafia." which creates a disincentive for following you in that switch.
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On February 01 2012 03:14 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote: As it turned out, during day1, i got abused by mafia to promote their lynches, as in the FakePromise vs CosmosXAMs case where i basically did exactly what they wanted me to. Thus, i became more careful and did not want to instantly jump onto any lynch that appeared when i was convinced that an other lynch might have been better. I feared that if i switch onto zarepath, others would follow without thinking, as it apparently happened during day1. Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote:On February 01 2012 00:38 slOosh wrote: Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is? It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him.
Not necessarily "not allowed", but still, people who would be inclined to vote zelblade are much more unlikely to do so if they notice that noone else is voting for him. First you say that you fear voting as others would follow without reason. Then you actually go and vote early on without that fear on day 2. As most of your defense seems to be self-victimization right now, this is a glaring contradiction in your thoughts and actions. Glaring because you assert that you were "abused" and "manipulated" to explain your non-commital actions but then you go and do exactly what you said you were trying so hard to avoid. I voted early on day 2 for exactly the reason i stated at that time, to avoid making voting such a last-minute action like it was day 1 and thus make it more logical and less impulsive. I am not doing that today because at the moment you are pretty focussed on me, so anything i would do to promote another lynch candidate is
Also, you are a bit wrong about the chronology. During most of the beginning of day2, i was actually pretty occupied and simply did not have enough time to really read into stuff and post something about it. Thus i could only answer to very obvious things when they came up when i found a minute to look at this thread on saturday morning and night. I was gone PnP roleplaying on saturday (this was organized over a forum, i will provide a link if you really want it and it is allowed), returned home late and got to sleep. After that period of time, which ended on sunday when i woke up, i reread the thread, the whole zarepath day 2 case was there, and i understood that i apparently had been pretty eager to do what mafia wanted me to do on day1.
Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote: Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not. This is weak defense since you found a hypothetical thought that can explain the situation and then believe it. It is weak since you are the one who brings up the most WIFOMs and urges caution in everyone esp. with the DoYouHas' hit claim, yet your thinking process is "oh this thought explains my actions, so it must have been what I was thinking". Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago. I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not?
Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 01:24 Simberto wrote: And to avoid this whole thing being to one-sided, i want to point out two significantly non-scummy things i did.
I was the first person to be suspicious of balt11t because of the way he attacked FakePromise, even though i should have followed that through after FakePromise flipped green. At least i hope that some of the suspicion that was on him is a result of that.
I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him. You were suspicious of all the lurkers as were we. Being the first to do so doesn't really mean it is "significantly non-scummy". Honestly it was MidnightGladius who gets all the credit for pegging him with the vig shot. Everyone treated him as 2nd priority lurker. DoYouHas points out in his Zarepath case that I was slow in posting my case against Zarepath on day 1 that we did not have enough time to swing the vote. You are trying to claim credit for hypothetical situations. Since you claim not mafia and there are two remaining, beside Zelblade who do you think the last mafia is and why? [/quote]
No, i was just stating that what i did day1 would have been incredibly if i were mafia, while it is completely reasonable since i am town.
I was explicitly avoiding to paint another target since that would only have been interpreted as a smokescreen anyways, and was pretty busy defending myself, so i do not have a good mafia read that i am convinced of. I will do that now.
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Ok, so Simberto agrees that his play did not favor the town day1. He also agrees that his voting looks really scummy now that we have the information we do. He hasn't explained away this typo + Show Spoiler +Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and nor the flaws in the chronology in this post to my satisfaction. He says that my case against zarepath day2 convinced him of how manipulated he was day1, but by whom? Certainly not zelblade who barely posted anything. The only real answer is zarepath. So then why is Simberto holding his vote on zelblade as the 'fishier' candidate instead of moving onto zarepath? Or is this 'the devil made me do it' defense something that has only come up after my analysis of Simberto because this supposed manipulation has not informed any of his day2 decisions?
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On February 01 2012 04:27 DoYouHas wrote:Ok, so Simberto agrees that his play did not favor the town day1. He also agrees that his voting looks really scummy now that we have the information we do. He hasn't explained away this typo + Show Spoiler +Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and
I honestly don't see what i should explain regarding that. It was a typo. Either my mind was occupied with something else, or i honestly believed that zarepath was the one who pointed it out. It was not intentional, and thus i can not explain my intention behind it, because there was none. Also, i don't understand how that would even be any useful towards mafia goals if i were mafia
nor the flaws in the chronology in this post to my satisfaction.
As i said, i was honestly convinced that zelblades attack on SacredSystem came after your post. Apparently, if you read far too many filters you lose the context.
He says that my case against zarepath day2 convinced him of how manipulated he was day1, but by whom? Certainly not zelblade who barely posted anything. The only real answer is zarepath. So then why is Simberto holding his vote on zelblade as the 'fishier' candidate instead of moving onto zarepath? Or is this 'the devil made me do it' defense something that has only come up after my analysis of Simberto because this supposed manipulation has not informed any of his day2 decisions?
The answer to your rhetoric question is obviously zarepath. I was holding my vote on zelblade because there was no lack of votes on zarepath and i could switch my vote at any point (i even stated that i would switch to zarepath lynch if zelblade does not work in this post.) Also in that post i mention that i want to avoid falling in the same traps that i did on day 1, so this is not something that i just made up after the accusations today. I find it strange that you missed that after you apparently read my filter pretty exactly, i fear that you are falling into a confirmation bias trap at the moment.
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As for my scum reads, upon rereading the thread i noticed that there is some pretty hard lurking going on. Now, this might sound like an easy copout, but it is still true.
Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
I actually think that SacredSystem looks pretty clean at the moment, even though i do not really like his style of posting.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Bromancipate is not really conclusive due to there being multiple persons behind that name, but i don't think he is mafia at the moment.
I am also still highly suspicious of zelblade, but i am getting to the point where i am asking myself if i am not just tunnelvisioning him. I will take a closer look on that.
Also, i will go to sleep in about an hour, so if you want an answer to any further questions today, please ask them soon, otherwise you will get it tomorrow.
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so there seems to be some team work going on between some of the players here. The pattern that emerged that i picked up on, is that there are several players who lay low for a while, and then come out of inactivity and become very aggressive using the same logic that other players have attempted to use.
For example zarepath, and zelblade seem to have very apperant cohesion going on yet instead of pointing that out, you jump to the conclusion that is by far more difficult to jump to, and that is that we are busing one another.
adam laid the frame work for their aggression on me, which was quickly picked up by zelblade and zarepath, and zarepath as we all know is confirmed mafia
now i dont think adam is mafia, he initiated the attack, which is fine, what i am more concerned about are those that just hoped on board, zelbade, zarepath and later doyouhas. Adam would later retract his statements that i am mafia due to the answers that i provided in response to his attacks were not what he had expected from a mafia. The others never retracted their statements even after zarepaths mafia flip made it impossible to label me mafia if it were not for us busing one another, which is impossible to prove
after the fall of zarepath, adam would go on to claim that he no longer feels i am mafia and removes his suspicion of me, and then places it on zelblade and balt11t, balt as we know would later be shot and flip mafia, and if adam were mafia he wouldnt abandon his case on me to turn his attention to balt
Now i believe zelblade is mafia, in his attacks on me he is his very defensive and critical of my attacks on zarepath, his analysis felt far more emotional then logical, Capitalized bold letters, double question marks, the use of logic that isnt logical, and this omggg how could you think that defense Also just the very notion that you furiously defended someone that fliped red insta makes you a prime suspect. Then on top of that after zarepath was proven mafia you acted like you were all on board with it
+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 17:33 zelblade wrote:On another note, looking through SS's filter this post of zarepath's which he quoted really jumps out to me. Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. What i think is wierd is the "feel free to investigate me at night part". Why would he want a DT to check him, when he himself even admits that "it will be a waste of an investigation"? I dont think that town would ever request a DT to check him unless there was a high chance that he was going to be lynched the next day, as doing so would use an action which could be better used on a scummy player to try and weed out scum. Finding scum is definately more important, IMO, than confirming 1 townie. As such, this causes me to agree with DoYouHas that perhaps zerpath is indeed the godfather fishing for DT checks, enabling himself to get the status of "confirmed town", whilst wasting a DT check at the same time. Also the way that SS attacks zarepath makes me feel that they probably arent on the same team. I mean, if they were both mafia, why attack each other that way at that time? I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia. notice how he says I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia he was mafia but that didnt seem to change your mind + Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. ja hahah, except you! You were the one defending him
tldr adam zelblade zelblade seems scared, look how he gave himself away with his aggression on me and his defense of his buddy zarepath
also be careful zelblade, you kill me and i flip green, which i will, you are dead the very next day vote: zelbalde
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On February 01 2012 05:30 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +He says that my case against zarepath day2 convinced him of how manipulated he was day1, but by whom? Certainly not zelblade who barely posted anything. The only real answer is zarepath. So then why is Simberto holding his vote on zelblade as the 'fishier' candidate instead of moving onto zarepath? Or is this 'the devil made me do it' defense something that has only come up after my analysis of Simberto because this supposed manipulation has not informed any of his day2 decisions? The answer to your rhetoric question is obviously zarepath. I was holding my vote on zelblade because there was no lack of votes on zarepath and i could switch my vote at any point (i even stated that i would switch to zarepath lynch if zelblade does not work in this post.) Also in that post i mention that i want to avoid falling in the same traps that i did on day 1, so this is not something that i just made up after the accusations today. I find it strange that you missed that after you apparently read my filter pretty exactly, i fear that you are falling into a confirmation bias trap at the moment. The 'traps' you mention in that post is pretty clearly just confirmation bias, not the belief that you were being manipulated by mafia. SO, let me put this clearly. You state that I presented a strong case against zarepath, your own logic made it stronger, you found more inconsistencies in zarepath's posting than even I pointed out, AND apparently you were convinced that zarepath had manipulated you into anti-town action day1. How does this possibly fit with your actions day2? You don't bring up this manipulation theory, you don't add your own analysis to mine, and you don't switch your vote to someone who, by your own reasoning, is far more likely to be mafia than zelblade.
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On February 01 2012 06:23 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 05:30 Simberto wrote:He says that my case against zarepath day2 convinced him of how manipulated he was day1, but by whom? Certainly not zelblade who barely posted anything. The only real answer is zarepath. So then why is Simberto holding his vote on zelblade as the 'fishier' candidate instead of moving onto zarepath? Or is this 'the devil made me do it' defense something that has only come up after my analysis of Simberto because this supposed manipulation has not informed any of his day2 decisions? The answer to your rhetoric question is obviously zarepath. I was holding my vote on zelblade because there was no lack of votes on zarepath and i could switch my vote at any point (i even stated that i would switch to zarepath lynch if zelblade does not work in this post.) Also in that post i mention that i want to avoid falling in the same traps that i did on day 1, so this is not something that i just made up after the accusations today. I find it strange that you missed that after you apparently read my filter pretty exactly, i fear that you are falling into a confirmation bias trap at the moment. The 'traps' you mention in that post is pretty clearly just confirmation bias, not the belief that you were being manipulated by mafia. SO, let me put this clearly. You state that I presented a strong case against zarepath, your own logic made it stronger, you found more inconsistencies in zarepath's posting than even I pointed out, AND apparently you were convinced that zarepath had manipulated you into anti-town action day1. How does this possibly fit with your actions day2? You don't bring up this manipulation theory, you don't add your own analysis to mine, and you don't switch your vote to someone who, by your own reasoning, is far more likely to be mafia than zelblade.
You are turning my words aroung in my mouth.
You presented a strong case against zarepath, my own logic made it stronger UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT ZELBLADE IS RED, and yes, i found more small breadcrumbs in his posts, like for example that baby thing that just made no sense at all I am just not convinced that adding up small breadcrumbs is a good way to find mafia, because you can do that against anyone. For example, i could easily find lots of small stuff against MidnightGladius who we now know is town. Thus, adding more of that stuff would have turned an objective investigation into a witchhunt, which is really not something we as town want.
I was convinced that IF YOU ARE RIGHT, i was manipulated to lead the lynches during day 1. However, i still thought that the best way to test this was to lynch zelblade. The only thing my reasoning showed was that there is some cohesion between zarepath and zelblade, and zelblade already looked very scummy day 1, so i stated that i would rather lynch him then zarepath, and, more importantly, that i did not want to lynch someone based on someone else telling me to do so, rather then the person i myself thought of as the most scummy, since that was obviously something very wrong in my day1 play. Someone tells me someone else is fishy, i look at their filter and get confirmation bias. This was something i obviously wanted to avoid.
Also, i stated very clearly that i would not block a zarepath vote, but prefer one on zelblade. Thus, there was no need to change my vote at that point in time, my intention to vote was absolutely clear. I would vote upon whomever we can get a lynch on between zarepath and zelblade. The timing of that post was also just there because that happened to be when i got around to playing the game, even though you will probably use that as a reason that i am mafia anyways.
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Anyways, i am going to bed now. I hope that you guys look at this objectively and realise that i am not mafia instead of pushing each other higher and higher on this throughout the night.
Also, i am now posting my vote against Chocolate in line with my above reasoning, which i wanted to avoid since it will surely be turned against me as a distraction or something of the sorts.
##vote Chocolate
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On January 31 2012 19:21 zelblade wrote:Also one thing that I feel is wierd: Show nested quote +Simberto Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
It seems like he is attempting to be casting doubt onto DYH at this point. I understand this is a minor point, but i feel that it is really wierd. You're right, it is a minor point but it is possible. I don't think he is casting doubt but just trying to keep everyone with an open mind, since it is possible. I highly doubt mafia would waste a shot like that, and DYH has really good analysis and posts, but still, it is a possibility that i think he wanted to make sure others understand.
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On February 01 2012 01:24 Simberto wrote: And to avoid this whole thing being to one-sided, i want to point out two significantly non-scummy things i did.
I was the first person to be suspicious of balt11t because of the way he attacked FakePromise, even though i should have followed that through after FakePromise flipped green. At least i hope that some of the suspicion that was on him is a result of that.
I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him. You are posting what you should have done but in my opinion you aren't posting enough of why you did things in the first place. When you are addressing posts you say what you could have done better, but we aren't interested in that. As they say, hindsight is 20/20. Just tell us why you did things to begin with.
Like this
Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago. I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not? I'm sure you can give us a more substantial answer than that.
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Alrighty, it is morning here in Aus. Time to find some mafia.
Honestly this Simberto thing is a little hard to understand. He is a hard read because some of his defence is logical. I will take a closer look into his posting.
Right now we have a few targets and little direction and it has made it difficult for me to determine who suspects who. So here is my summary of what people think of other's alignment.
People who think
Zelblade is scum- Adam4167
- CosmosXAM
- Simberto
- SacredSystem
- sl0osh?
Simberto is scum- Adam4167
- DoYouHas
- CosmosXAM
- sl0osh?
- Zelblade
SacredSystem is scum- Bromancipate
- Zelblade
- DoYouHas
- sl0osh?
Chocolate is scum
DoYouhas is scum
I don't see anyone actively pushing for a sl0osh, Bromancipate, Cosmos or Adam lynch. Please correct me if I am wrong or I am missing something. Our target for this lynch must come from those top three otherwise we risk splitting the vote. This also helps us determine people's motivations for voting.
I will be looking into both Simberto and Chocolate, I don't think zelblade is scum. The problem I have is that a zelblade lynch gives us the most information. I believe SS is scum and a townie zelblade flip would help confirm this in others minds. Simberto has also been pushing a zeblade lynch and is still pushing that wagon, so a zelblade flip would help us with him.
I don't want to lynch a townie so I will not be voting for zelblade. Chocolate is an interesting one but a zelblade, SS or Simberto lynch doesn't really tell us anything about him, nor does a Chocolate lynch tells us much about the others. Yes Sim has recently been pushing a Chocolate lynch but he has been pushing zelblade harder. Like I said I will look into Chocolate's posting but for now a lynch of one of the top three gives us more info.
DoYouHas was only placed under suspicion by SacredSystem(linky) so I won't consider him a candidate.
So I have this conundrum where the one person on the list that looks town to me would give me the most information if he flipped. This is why I want others to make their intentions clear.
In short, please let me know if I am missing some information, or have misread your "reads". sl0osh, you in particular need to make yourself clear.
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On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote: Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Hang on, whaaaat.
I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post?
I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you.
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On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote: As for my scum reads, upon rereading the thread i noticed that there is some pretty hard lurking going on. Now, this might sound like an easy copout, but it is still true.
Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
I actually think that SacredSystem looks pretty clean at the moment, even though i do not really like his style of posting.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Bromancipate is not really conclusive due to there being multiple persons behind that name, but i don't think he is mafia at the moment.
I am also still highly suspicious of zelblade, but i am getting to the point where i am asking myself if i am not just tunnelvisioning him. I will take a closer look on that.
Also, i will go to sleep in about an hour, so if you want an answer to any further questions today, please ask them soon, otherwise you will get it tomorrow. I agree with you on the lurking. I do believe that Chocolate should speak up as we progress into lategame. There are so many things to talk about and really no reason to remain quiet as a town. Right now, being neutral on people's lists is something that warrants inspection.
However, these are things I don't like. You don't expound on your reasonings on SacredSystem - WHY does he look clean? And WHY do you think that Adam is strange on lack of info even though you say in the same post that he has content?
On that note I would like Chocolate to comment on his opinions. Day 3 and I'm still not too sure what you actually think. For instance, what do you think about Simbarto, SacredSystem and Zelblade? Please be clear in revealing your thoughts (e.g. I think this person is mafia because of this, and this other guy is town because of this etc.)
Beside your small explanations everytime you vote, you don't really have strong reads on anyone, and most of your posts are comments on other people's plays (without reference to what this says about their alignments).
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On February 01 2012 07:54 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote: Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Hang on, whaaaat. I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post? I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you.
Adam, can you please give me your scum reads. From your filter it seems that you have, me (Bromancipate), Zelblade, SacredSystem, Chocolate and Simberto. That's a lot of scum! I drew up the previous list based on my reading of your more recent posts, but I can't be sure if it is correct.
Thanks!
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i never said doyouhas is scum
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On February 01 2012 07:58 slOosh wrote: I agree with you on the lurking. I do believe that Chocolate should speak up as we progress into lategame. There are so many things to talk about and really no reason to remain quiet as a town. Right now, being neutral on people's lists is something that warrants inspection.
However, these are things I don't like. You don't expound on your reasonings on SacredSystem - WHY does he look clean? And WHY do you think that Adam is strange on lack of info even though you say in the same post that he has content?
On that note I would like Chocolate to comment on his opinions. Day 3 and I'm still not too sure what you actually think. For instance, what do you think about Simbarto, SacredSystem and Zelblade? Please be clear in revealing your thoughts (e.g. I think this person is mafia because of this, and this other guy is town because of this etc.)
All right let's do this. Town Sloosh- Great analysis, very active, driving discussion DYH- Good analysis, active, claimed being hit w/ no counterclaim Bromancipate- Kind of on the edge, but has been posting a lot lately w/ good analysis and is driving discussion Cosmos- started zarepath lynch Adam- playing well, contributing Don't know... SS- very hostile attitude, confusing posts, omgus a lot BUT is active and seems to be trying to do analysis Zellblade- just generally shady, lurker like myself Mafia?? Simberto- Now that everyone has pointed out his inconsistencies he seems to me to be a mafia, or at least the best current candidate for a lynch.
If you want any clarification just ask. My don't know list is subject to change especially if others post a good analysis of one of them. If simberto was not a candidate for lynching i would be on SS just because he likes to omgus a lot.
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Posted while others posted :/
I do not like SacredSystem's style of posting. It is really hard to follow and sometimes gets too aggressive to the point of condescension and disrespectful tone. Perhaps this is null. But also notice how he is always personal in his posts (the prominence of the 2nd person pronoun). He isn't talking to town but talking to people specifically in town. Almost everypost. Dropping the assumption that Zelblade is mafia and the logical framework in which I think a zarepath zelblade sacredsystem balt11t is impossible, I think that SacredSystem is mafia.
With Zelblade, I looked again and tried to forget the apologetic tone on day 1 to be as objective as I can. It is clear that he thinks that SacredSystem is mafia, and has not let go of it from day 2. It isn't a deflection tactic as he isn't redirecting focus on him to SacredSystem when people suspect him. Transparency of posting and intent is town read. I think Zelblade is slightly town (I am trusting in more experienced players' red such as yours when I drop the apologetic tone of day 1. Doesn't give as much content as I want, but very clearly sets himself against SacredSystem)
I don't like Simberto's WIFOMs and I've been asking him more questions to get a clearer picture of who he is. I don't like how convenient it is that all his mafia-esque actions are explained away by the ingenious mafia puppeteering. Add onto that his response to my "Zarepath typo catch"
On February 01 2012 01:09 Simberto wrote: I seriously don't know what that is.
I assume that i was thinking about something else related to zarepath at that moment, and thus used the wrong name. I will look at that specific post in context to try to make sense of it.
So far, even though this will probably be called WIFOM even though it is not, why would i do that intentionally if i was mafia? I don't see any way that would make sense at all.
And if it is just a typo, i don't see how it would make me look any more or any less scummy, since i could have made that typo/being distracted if i was mafia just the way i made it now. On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote: Ok, after reading the context, i am even more confused. There is nothing there that could have made me think of zarepath. I think i just always thought that that post pointing out the "to town" was by zarepath, which would also explain why i thought him significantly less scummy than he actually was when rereading his filter, i thought he had contributed stuff, but apparently he did not. On February 01 2012 01:16 Simberto wrote: Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago.I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not?
I honestly thought this was just a typo and wanted to see what he thought, seeing as it can be construed as giving another mafia player credibility (like when Zarepath wanted to claim the original pressure on zelblade). He gives a WIFOM. Then he says is was an incorrect read on Zarepath. Then he says he doesn't remember. In the last line he mocks me how stupid it is to make something up to fit the story even though that is exactly what he did. Right now I think Simbarto is mafia.
I would go for SacredSystem or Simbarto without the need of a Zelblade flip confirmation. Even without a flip, I think there is enough evidence for SacredSystem in the least, if not also Simbarto.
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Right, well I will take him off the list then. I read this
now i dont think adam is mafia, he initiated the attack, which is fine, what i am more concerned about are those that just hoped on board, zelbade, zarepath and later doyouhas.
As implying DYH is the same as Zelblade and Zarepath, both of which you think are scum. Who do you think are the remaining mafia?
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Updated:
People who think
Zelblade is scum- Adam4167
- CosmosXAM
- Simberto
- SacredSystem
Simberto is scum- Adam4167
- DoYouHas
- CosmosXAM
- sl0osh
- Zelblade
- Chocolate
SacredSystem is scum- Bromancipate
- Zelblade
- DoYouHas
- sl0osh
Chocolate is scum
Thanks for clarifying sl0osh.
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Bromancipate, while it is true that a zelblade lynch would give us information, a Simberto lynch also gives us quite a bit of information as well. If Simberto flips red, it all but confirms zelblade as town (unless Simberto is operating a long con bussing scheme). Also, it would be pretty strong evidence for narrowing our search down to either SacredSystem or Chocolate for day4. If he flips green (unlikely as I see it), it broadens our view of possible scum again, which is something I would like to know I need to do earlier rather than later. But look past all this to the endgame. We are 7 town against 2 scum. In order to win this game mafia are going to have to get 3 mislynches as well as not have their hit stopped the next two nights. This tells me that one of the only real ways that mafia have to win this game is by taking control of the days. Who among the remaining players really have the potential to take that kind of control? Myself, Bromancipate, sl0osh, Simberto, and maybe Adam. So not only do I think that I have made a strong enough case to get Simberto lynched on its own merit, but we would be safeguarding our endgame by lynching him.
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Posting lists is scummy prob, you should know that
Seriously though, I feel like of those 5 names I am mentioning, the last 2 scum are in there.
Chocolate looks bad. He spends all of day 1 soft defending zarepath, jumps on the zarepath vote quite late on day 2 (hes vote number 7 with 5 required to lynch), hes nigh on inactive and when he shows up he doesn't push any cases or reads.
Zelblade is an interesting case. I know people hate it when this gets said, but flipping him would provide a wealth of info. He was also fairly late on the Zarepath vote on day 2, after trying to push my case on SacredSystem. Jury is still out here, Id probably keep him alive another day while we lynch someone else and gather more information.
SacredSystem I eased up on a while ago. Hes another one who can stay around while we hang someone else.
Bromancipate: All I really said for you was that your post-count was lacking, but you're busy, so I get that. That and jitsu never followed up on something he said. He did however cast suspicion onto balt11t at the end of night 1 when not many people were really focused on him, so ill look elsewhere for mafia for now.
Simberto I've never called scum. I just said his postcount dropping off compared to day 1 was odd. Ill put some thoughts together on him soon.
At this point, I'm interested in a Chocolate lynch, and ill make my mind up on Simberto sometime in the next few hours after i finish reading.
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On February 01 2012 09:07 Adam4167 wrote:Posting lists is scummy prob, you should know that Seriously though, I feel like of those 5 names I am mentioning, the last 2 scum are in there. Chocolate looks bad. He spends all of day 1 soft defending zarepath, jumps on the zarepath vote quite late on day 2 (hes vote number 7 with 5 required to lynch), hes nigh on inactive and when he shows up he doesn't push any cases or reads. Zelblade is an interesting case. I know people hate it when this gets said, but flipping him would provide a wealth of info. He was also fairly late on the Zarepath vote on day 2, after trying to push my case on SacredSystem. Jury is still out here, Id probably keep him alive another day while we lynch someone else and gather more information. SacredSystem I eased up on a while ago. Hes another one who can stay around while we hang someone else. Bromancipate: All I really said for you was that your post-count was lacking, but you're busy, so I get that. That and jitsu never followed up on something he said. He did however cast suspicion onto balt11t at the end of night 1 when not many people were really focused on him, so ill look elsewhere for mafia for now. Simberto I've never called scum. I just said his postcount dropping off compared to day 1 was odd. Ill put some thoughts together on him soon. At this point, I'm interested in a Chocolate lynch, and ill make my mind up on Simberto sometime in the next few hours after i finish reading. It was 7 required to lynch -.- I think it's interesting that in less than 24 hours you have changed me from a null read to mafia, solely because I haven't posted much (although I have been posting). I'd also like you to show me when I soft defended zarepath.
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Says it right there at the bottom.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 02:11 dreamflower wrote: Voting Count Update
SacredSystem - 2 Adam4167
zelblade zarepath
zelblade - 1 Simberto
zarepath - 6 DoYouHas CosmosXAM slOosh SacredSystem MidnightGladius zelblade
Non-Voters - 3 Bromancipate Chocolate balt11t
Voting ends at 03:00 GMT (+00:00) today.
Currently, the number of votes needed to lynch is: 5 out of 9.
And since you asked:
On January 26 2012 04:53 Chocolate wrote: Still looking at zellblade & zarepath but we've seen them post and zare is pretty active, zellblade may just be making nooby mistakes but he has still posted oddly.
and
On January 27 2012 11:07 Chocolate wrote: Zare has a moderately strong case against him but I think lynching an active player who seems a little suspicious is worse than lynching one who is more suspicious and posts less
Good to know you're still reading the thread though.
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On February 01 2012 09:26 Adam4167 wrote:Says it right there at the bottom. + Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 02:11 dreamflower wrote: Voting Count Update
SacredSystem - 2 Adam4167
zelblade zarepath
zelblade - 1 Simberto
zarepath - 6 DoYouHas CosmosXAM slOosh SacredSystem MidnightGladius zelblade
Non-Voters - 3 Bromancipate Chocolate balt11t
Voting ends at 03:00 GMT (+00:00) today.
Currently, the number of votes needed to lynch is: 5 out of 9.And since you asked: Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 04:53 Chocolate wrote: Still looking at zellblade & zarepath but we've seen them post and zare is pretty active, zellblade may just be making nooby mistakes but he has still posted oddly. and Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 11:07 Chocolate wrote: Zare has a moderately strong case against him but I think lynching an active player who seems a little suspicious is worse than lynching one who is more suspicious and posts less Good to know you're still reading the thread though. That was if those people never voted at all, once they had all voted it would've been 7. How does 5/12 even make sense? In the OP it says how they determine the # required and for 12 it is 7.
You could call that soft defending zarepath but honestly at the time I was more suspicious of the lurkers. Also those were during the first day when the evidence and case against zare was much less than those of cosmos, ss, zellblade, or fakepromise.
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On February 01 2012 09:00 DoYouHas wrote: Bromancipate, while it is true that a zelblade lynch would give us information, a Simberto lynch also gives us quite a bit of information as well. If Simberto flips red, it all but confirms zelblade as town (unless Simberto is operating a long con bussing scheme). Also, it would be pretty strong evidence for narrowing our search down to either SacredSystem or Chocolate for day4. If he flips green (unlikely as I see it), it broadens our view of possible scum again, which is something I would like to know I need to do earlier rather than later. But look past all this to the endgame. We are 7 town against 2 scum. In order to win this game mafia are going to have to get 3 mislynches as well as not have their hit stopped the next two nights. This tells me that one of the only real ways that mafia have to win this game is by taking control of the days. Who among the remaining players really have the potential to take that kind of control? Myself, Bromancipate, sl0osh, Simberto, and maybe Adam. So not only do I think that I have made a strong enough case to get Simberto lynched on its own merit, but we would be safeguarding our endgame by lynching him.
I am still making up my mind on Simberto. As you say he is one of us who is actively contributing.
On February 01 2012 09:07 Adam4167 wrote:Posting lists is scummy prob, you should know that Seriously though, I feel like of those 5 names I am mentioning, the last 2 scum are in there. Chocolate looks bad. He spends all of day 1 soft defending zarepath, jumps on the zarepath vote quite late on day 2 (hes vote number 7 with 5 required to lynch), hes nigh on inactive and when he shows up he doesn't push any cases or reads. Zelblade is an interesting case. I know people hate it when this gets said, but flipping him would provide a wealth of info. He was also fairly late on the Zarepath vote on day 2, after trying to push my case on SacredSystem. Jury is still out here, Id probably keep him alive another day while we lynch someone else and gather more information. SacredSystem I eased up on a while ago. Hes another one who can stay around while we hang someone else. Bromancipate: All I really said for you was that your post-count was lacking, but you're busy, so I get that. That and jitsu never followed up on something he said. He did however cast suspicion onto balt11t at the end of night 1 when not many people were really focused on him, so ill look elsewhere for mafia for now. Simberto I've never called scum. I just said his postcount dropping off compared to day 1 was odd. Ill put some thoughts together on him soon. At this point, I'm interested in a Chocolate lynch, and ill make my mind up on Simberto sometime in the next few hours after i finish reading.
Lists are only scummy if they have no purpose and you provide nothing else. There is a very clear reason for mine, I want a succesful lynch and that requires people being aware of others intentions. We will have a real problem if we don't narrow our lynch candidates to two or at most three. Chocolate is certainly not helping himself but it is hard to tell whether he is in a similar boat to zelblade, just not sure how to post. His lurking, voting patterns and his determination to respond only when required is really what is making him look bad. He can redeem himself if he contributes as we have bigger fish to fry. SS however is still responding in an aggressive manner to being questioned and has subsequently disappeared.
My updated list is spoilered for those interested + Show Spoiler +People who think Zelblade is scum- Adam4167
- CosmosXAM
- Simberto
- SacredSystem
Simberto is scum- DoYouHas
- CosmosXAM
- sl0osh
- Zelblade
- Chocolate
SacredSystem is scum- Bromancipate
- Zelblade
- DoYouHas
- sl0osh
Chocolate is scum
Unfortunately people I have to go now. I have a black tie dinner tonight for work so I won't be able to log on until a similar time tomorrow morning. I will have finalised my position on Simberto by then and will post what I have. In the meantime Jistu may appear, I haven't heard much from him.
Good luck guys, all it takes is two more succesfull lynches and the game is ours.
/Probulous
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Well, it is soft defense. You state that he might be scum but then rationalize it away by saying other people look worse.
And yes, those posts did come from day 1, mainly because you've contributed very little so i have very little to work with.
This post here is the only real substantial thing you've given us since day 1, and it came in as I was typing my post so I haven't read it until just now.
I appreciate that its something, but your one mafia suspect is Simberto, who is already under heavy suspicion and you don't really offer anything new as to why hes scum, just that 'other people have pointed out his inconsistencies'. Comb through his filter, find something new, alleviate my suspicion that you are not interested in helping this town move forward.
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Well I'm not sure if it's "new" but he has basically been tunnel visioning Zellblade since Day 1
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there is no way zelblade is town, he and zarepath attacked me together zelblade defended zarepath when i accused him zelblade stood there in defense of zarepath, in other words zelblade defended a mafia and then after we find out that zarepath is mafia zelblade plays it off like good job guys that was an easy lynch
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After rereading the thread in its entirety, ive noticed something.
Zarepath pushing CosmosXAM as a lynch candidate on day 1 stemmed partly from CosmosXAM pointing the finger a Chocolate for being 'suspicious'. This is a textbook example of what is known as a 'Chainsaw Defense', which is when one mafia gets attacked by a townie, another mafia attacks the accuser to deflect suspicion back on the townie. Its right Here at the bottom of that horrible WIFOM'ey defense of FakePromise.
Add on top of this, both times I've called him mafia, hes come out of lurker mode.
I'm seeing too much in favor of voting for Chocolate, and not enough redeeming him. ##Vote Chocolate
One thing that sticks out to me in Simberto's filter is the continual redirects onto balt11t. And There Are Lots And Lots Of Them
So I guess I am posed with the question of was he doing this to pick up the 'town cred' after we inevitably killed balt? (because lets face it, that was going to happen, sooner rather than later)
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On February 01 2012 12:09 Adam4167 wrote:After rereading the thread in its entirety, ive noticed something. Zarepath pushing CosmosXAM as a lynch candidate on day 1 stemmed partly from CosmosXAM pointing the finger a Chocolate for being 'suspicious'. This is a textbook example of what is known as a 'Chainsaw Defense', which is when one mafia gets attacked by a townie, another mafia attacks the accuser to deflect suspicion back on the townie. Its right Here at the bottom of that horrible WIFOM'ey defense of FakePromise. Add on top of this, both times I've called him mafia, hes come out of lurker mode. I'm seeing too much in favor of voting for Chocolate, and not enough redeeming him. ##Vote ChocolateOne thing that sticks out to me in Simberto's filter is the continual redirects onto balt11t. And There Are Lots And Lots Of ThemSo I guess I am posed with the question of was he doing this to pick up the 'town cred' after we inevitably killed balt? (because lets face it, that was going to happen, sooner rather than later)
Interesting points, after reading a lot of previous posts I think that my new top three that might be mafia (I know there is only two left) would have to be chocolate simberto zelblade though I doubt both simberto and zelblade would be mafia together, still not even close to 100% on any of these so i think I will hold my vote off for a bit.
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Right. I'm resorting to paint here (oh gawd) to try and get a clearer picture of what everyone is saying.
After taking in everyone's reads, I find these are the two most likely scum teams: Chocoloate/Zelblade or Simberto/SacredSystem
As we begin to flip more of these names, this picture will solve itself. I am content with flipping anyone in the above diagram, with a special preference for Chocolate for the previously mentioned reasons.
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On February 01 2012 12:09 Adam4167 wrote:After rereading the thread in its entirety, ive noticed something. Zarepath pushing CosmosXAM as a lynch candidate on day 1 stemmed partly from CosmosXAM pointing the finger a Chocolate for being 'suspicious'. This is a textbook example of what is known as a 'Chainsaw Defense', which is when one mafia gets attacked by a townie, another mafia attacks the accuser to deflect suspicion back on the townie. Its right Here at the bottom of that horrible WIFOM'ey defense of FakePromise. Add on top of this, both times I've called him mafia, hes come out of lurker mode. I'm seeing too much in favor of voting for Chocolate, and not enough redeeming him. ##Vote ChocolateOne thing that sticks out to me in Simberto's filter is the continual redirects onto balt11t. And There Are Lots And Lots Of ThemSo I guess I am posed with the question of was he doing this to pick up the 'town cred' after we inevitably killed balt? (because lets face it, that was going to happen, sooner rather than later) I do want to point out that in every single post balt11t is always in a list of people. A list of lurkers. A list of suspects. Zelblade is also in all of those posts. So you have to ask, is this a town thing to do? Is he contributing by pressuring / openly sharing all his suspicions on multiple people at once, or is he taking a non-commital stance that he can easily "go with the flow" and not be charged with error?
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Yeah, I insinuated in that post you quoted that I felt it might have just been a ploy.
I guess I cant discount the policy of a Simberto/Chocolate mafia team, even with Simberto attacking Chocolate. If both mafia are indeed in that list of 4 names I put in the diagram, then they're desperate and nothing is impossible.
Either way, tomorrows lynch will be very illuminating.
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On February 01 2012 13:05 Adam4167 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Right. I'm resorting to paint here (oh gawd) to try and get a clearer picture of what everyone is saying. After taking in everyone's reads, I find these are the two most likely scum teams: Chocoloate/Zelblade or Simberto/SacredSystem As we begin to flip more of these names, this picture will solve itself. I am content with flipping anyone in the above diagram, with a special preference for Chocolate for the previously mentioned reasons. Wow that's awesome. I'd go for SacredSystem / Simberto team. Why?
Look at particularly the black lines in the diagram. Who has the least justifiable black lines? (I.e. shouldn't be null unless they were same alignment)
On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote: chocolate is mafia simberto is town I ask him why he thinks Simberto is town. His response.On January 28 2012 07:31 SacredSystem wrote: i was some what suspicious of zarepath, just as we all were, for sugessting random lynching, -being suspicious of him presents good town motives
then zarepath consistently posted excuses and apologies
simberto also figured out that chocolate hasnt contributed anything
now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic
His town read is based off him "figuring out" chocolate has been lurking. Hmm.
On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote: I actually think that SacredSystem looks pretty clean at the moment, even though i do not really like his style of posting.
No reasoning. "Looks pretty clean". That's not an answer, that's an evasion.
Look at Zelblade / Chocolate team.
On February 01 2012 08:34 Chocolate wrote: All right let's do this. Town Sloosh- Great analysis, very active, driving discussion DYH- Good analysis, active, claimed being hit w/ no counterclaim Bromancipate- Kind of on the edge, but has been posting a lot lately w/ good analysis and is driving discussion Cosmos- started zarepath lynch Adam- playing well, contributing Don't know... SS- very hostile attitude, confusing posts, omgus a lot BUT is active and seems to be trying to do analysis Zellblade- just generally shady, lurker like myself Mafia?? Simberto- Now that everyone has pointed out his inconsistencies he seems to me to be a mafia, or at least the best current candidate for a lynch.
"generally shady" also evasive, while "lurker like myself" is somewhat understandable/logical.
On January 31 2012 18:47 zelblade wrote: Chocolate - No idea due to inactivity, voted rather late for zarepath, could be mafia if SS/simbertoe doesnt flip red.
Very logical, same conclusion that other townies came to, also posts his thoughts (relatively much more than the others posted).
I'm going to be taking a break so if another person could check out the black lines also it would be great. In any case, I am leaning more on the S & SS team. Voting S over SS since 2 votes already on S and no lynch is the worst case scenario for us (gives them a free night hit while we don't get any new info off flip).
##Vote Simberto
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let me be clear right now my sole focus of suspicion is 100% on zelblade
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This is what I was writing, until I started to think up questions to ask the four guys. I stopped and will post what I realized. + Show Spoiler + The thing I absolutely want to see is the four of you (Simberto, SacredSystem, Zelblade and Chocolate) interact with each other (Zelblade and SacredSystem have shown us enough of their relation, but I would like to see more of their relation to Simberto and Chocolate) This I feel will reveal much desired info, as well as put overwhelming pressure on mafia (if there are 2 in the group which I firmly believe) as they have to be extremely careful in their interaction with each other.
So this is like a public debate forum I suppose. I give you questions (in case you don't know what to talk about) and you guys duke it out. The townies in the group should just speak as they normally do. They aren't fabricating lies and positions unlike mafia who have to keep checking their stances to prevent making slip ups.
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On February 01 2012 06:17 SacredSystem wrote:Now i believe zelblade is mafia, in his attacks on me he is his very defensive and critical of my attacks on zarepath, his analysis felt far more emotional then logical, Capitalized bold letters, double question marks, the use of logic that isnt logical, and this omggg how could you think that defense
My analysis wasnt "emotional". The only capitalized bold letters are a "you", I dont see any double question marks, I dont see you pointing out anything in my analysis that "isnt logical", the "omgggg how could you think that defense" is referring to your OMGUS (in which you attack him because he feels that you are suspisious and for no other reason whatsover) of chocolate. Stop fabricating bullshit that isnt true.
Also just the very notion that you furiously defended someone that fliped red insta makes you a prime suspect. Then on top of that after zarepath was proven mafia you acted like you were all on board with it When the hell have I "furiously defended" him? I had made it clear after the case DYH posted that he seemed scummy and that I was suspisious of him, but moreso on you. Please point out an instance in which I defend him. Cant understand "acted like you were all on board on it".
+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 17:33 zelblade wrote:On another note, looking through SS's filter this post of zarepath's which he quoted really jumps out to me. Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. What i think is wierd is the "feel free to investigate me at night part". Why would he want a DT to check him, when he himself even admits that "it will be a waste of an investigation"? I dont think that town would ever request a DT to check him unless there was a high chance that he was going to be lynched the next day, as doing so would use an action which could be better used on a scummy player to try and weed out scum. Finding scum is definately more important, IMO, than confirming 1 townie. As such, this causes me to agree with DoYouHas that perhaps zerpath is indeed the godfather fishing for DT checks, enabling himself to get the status of "confirmed town", whilst wasting a DT check at the same time. Also the way that SS attacks zarepath makes me feel that they probably arent on the same team. I mean, if they were both mafia, why attack each other that way at that time? I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia. notice how he says Show nested quote + I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia he was mafia but that didnt seem to change your mind
I did say that I prefer lynching you over zarepath because I had a stronger scum read on you, and this was before the DYH case. I am not really sure about that last sentence of yours, but i shall assume (correct me if I am wrong), that you are talking about my "if zarepath = red SS prolly = green" part, I did think so at that point in time but I still am getting a scum feel off you, and as DYH has said;
DoYouHas I feel the need to walk back my defense of SacredSystem a bit. In day2 I was very quick to defend him as he was an early supporter of my analysis. I was looking for things that would let me channel voting towards zarepath. I think that is very clear to everyone. However, after getting zarepath lynched I have looked more closely at the case Adam presented and now Bromancipate. This, on top of the fact that a unanimous vote means support of my analysis and the zarepath lynch are no longer good standards for innocence, makes me retract my earlier defense of SacredSystem. I am going to take advantage of night2 to really look into SacredSystem for myself. Also, I'm going to try and analyze zelblade's day2 posts since we seem to be focusing on his day1 issues a little too much.
I now dont believe that the zarepath flip clears you at all.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. ja hahah, except you! You were the one defending him
As stated, I wasnt defending him.
tldr adam zelblade zelblade seems scared, look how he gave himself away with his aggression on me and his defense of his buddy zarepath
also be careful zelblade, you kill me and i flip green, which i will, you are dead the very next day vote: zelbalde
I am not scared, and I didnt "give myself away" with my attacks on you and non-exsistent defense of my so-called buddy. Dont worry, you will be lynched next after simberto flips red. And even if you are somehow town (highly highly doubt so), no scum in their right mind would shoot you, since you are doing an excellent job pushing their agenda for them.
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Ok. This is about Chocolate. Quick skim of his filter demonstrates that he has some experience with mafia and isn't a total newbie playing his first game.
On February 01 2012 08:34 Chocolate wrote: All right let's do this. Town Sloosh- Great analysis, very active, driving discussion DYH- Good analysis, active, claimed being hit w/ no counterclaim Bromancipate- Kind of on the edge, but has been posting a lot lately w/ good analysis and is driving discussion Cosmos- started zarepath lynch Adam- playing well, contributing Don't know... SS- very hostile attitude, confusing posts, omgus a lot BUT is active and seems to be trying to do analysis Zellblade- just generally shady, lurker like myself Mafia?? Simberto- Now that everyone has pointed out his inconsistencies he seems to me to be a mafia, or at least the best current candidate for a lynch.
There are nine players in the game. He puts five as town, two as null & one as mafia for a total of eight reads (plus himself makes nine).
Remember that there are two mafia left (as if town would forget!) and look at his last line.
He only considers Simberto as mafia after night 2 ends and people start openly suspecting Simberto. It is a very passive stance. Notice how he says it. He "seems". Then notice how he says that this is the best current candidate. Ok. So logically he is saying that Simberto, of whom he does not strongly believe is the mafia, is the best candidate in his mind.
So I ask you guys, what is he thinking going into night 2 without any mafia reads???
With this I am leaning much to a Simberto/Chocolate team that is bussing each other so that the other will stand a better chance. With Simberto on the chopping block he drops his thoughts on zelblade and points out Chocolate.
This does mean that Sacred is town. Perhaps he is town suffering from serious tunnel vision. I don't like this but at least he has some thought (doesn't matter how well/poorly reasoned it may be).
Chocolate, with the 0 reads night 2 is a mafia.
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I'm not quite so convinced of Chocolate's guilt yet. I do see the soft defenses of zarepath like Adam mentions. I'm not quite so sure of the chainsaw defense Adam puts forth. CosmosXAM only described Chocolate as 'mildly suspicious' and this is from a move Chocolate explains to my satisfaction with this post. CosmosXAM then quickly moved onto attacking SacredSystem. I don't really see a chainsaw defense from zarepath as necessary when the squabble was small and short lived and 2 pages back. Also, in my case against zarepath I brought up how zarepath seemed to be taking his cues from Simberto, specifically pointing out that Simberto had already gone after CosmosXAM a few times making him a safe target. Obviously now I think that zarepath was taking his cues from Simberto because they were actually working together, instead of in an attempt to make his plays look more pro-town. Back to Chocolate. I have not really investigated Chocolate the way I have with Simberto and as such I am not willing to discount the analysis of multiple players. However, returning to my above points. My view is that Chocolate is not so cut-and-dry scum as Adam thinks. Right now I'm confident Adam is a townie so I value his analysis. I will try to look into Chocolate more carefully tomorrow but after Simberto I will still be looking at SacredSystem as the next scummiest player.
I will leave you with this thought before I go to bed. Zarepath repeatedly pointed back to the less active players and lurkers when he was under pressure. Even including his last post where I had him pretty well locked into a lynch. I have said before and I will say again, this points to at least 1 mafia remaining among the active players. In virtually everyone's lists of mafia at the start of the day, zarepath was the most active member. Think about that, and good night.
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On February 01 2012 07:54 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote: Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Hang on, whaaaat. I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post? I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you.
It is quite simple. You posted far more content then chocolate, because he posted barely any. However, you als did not post enough to make it a clear read for me. These two are not contradictionary, only because you posted more then someone else does not mean that you posted enough. I wrote it like that to point out exactly how small the amount of contribution by chocolate is.
Like this
Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago. I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not? I'm sure you can give us a more substantial answer than that.[/QUOTE]
No, i can't. I did not do it intentionally, it was an accident. I can speculate upon how it happened, but i can't give an exact answer because i don't know.
Also, apparently there is an explanation needed as to why i think that SacredSystem is more likely town. It was mostly an afterthought in the last post, so i didn't go into details, i will do that now.
He seems like a rather naive towny, but consistently so. What i mean with that is stuff like this: [spoiler]
Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 15:45 zelblade wrote: Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.) if he were mafia wouldnt he know? as of now i am really tempted to lean in favor of zelblade just being a noob like he claims to be
now my conclusion will heavily revolve around this post by zarepath Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. why would a townesmen need to sink to that level to prove his innocence. Also if he were in fact a townie using the detectives powers on him would be a waste, the opportunity cost of displaying his innocence is huge therefore i will set aside all my other suspicions are claim that zarepath is very likely mafia he has shown a disturbing lack of town incentives, ie random lynch, not going after fakepromise, and his claim for self investigation
Show nested quote +On January 31 2012 03:32 SacredSystem wrote: so im not on my computer im on my phone, so i wont write a giant write up, the attacks made on me seemd like they were organized, im pretty sure there seemed to be some team work going on between zelblade and zarepath, their attacks seem like a giant smoke screen because they accuse me of using logic that other players were using as well, and this did make me very frustrated
i also would like to state that im sure zarepaths attacks on me would confirm my innocence, since inwas suspicious of him since day 1, so me bussing him doesnt seem very viable
i am reading all the posts, just to let yiu all know
after the fall of zarepath, adam would go on to claim that he no longer feels i am mafia and removes his suspicion of me, and then places it on zelblade and balt11t, balt as we know would later be shot and flip mafia, and if adam were mafia he wouldnt abandon his case on me to turn his attention to balt
Honestly, i could basically quote about half his filter here. It is always the same thing.
[spoiler] He is basically always not thinking the second thought in the line, but also always is very convinced of his results, and follows them aggressively. At the beginning, he was rather inactive, but that has vastly improved throughout the game. This is also what most people criticize about him (next to his IM-style massacring of grammar). However, he is so consistent in this behaviour that it looks a lot more like he actually is new to the mindset mafia requires, rather then an incredibly good actor.
Also, i hate to be the one pointing this out, but has CosmosXAM completely vanished?
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Ok, i butchered that hard. I will try to get it in order and repost it for better readability.
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On February 01 2012 07:54 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 06:08 Simberto wrote: Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content.
Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today.
Hang on, whaaaat. I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post? I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you.
It is quite simple. You posted far more content then chocolate, because he posted barely any. However, you als did not post enough to make it a clear read for me. These two are not contradictionary, only because you posted more then someone else does not mean that you posted enough. I wrote it like that to point out exactly how small the amount of contribution by chocolate is.
Like this Show nested quote +Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago. I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not? I'm sure you can give us a more substantial answer than that.
No, i can't. I did not do it intentionally, it was an accident. I can speculate upon how it happened, but i can't give an exact answer because i don't know.
Also, apparently there is an explanation needed as to why i think that SacredSystem is more likely town. It was mostly an afterthought in the last post, so i didn't go into details, i will do that now.
He seems like a rather naive towny, but consistently so. What i mean with that is stuff like this:
+ Show Spoiler +Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 15:45 zelblade wrote: Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.) if he were mafia wouldnt he know? as of now i am really tempted to lean in favor of zelblade just being a noob like he claims to be now my conclusion will heavily revolve around this post by zarepath Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. why would a townesmen need to sink to that level to prove his innocence. Also if he were in fact a townie using the detectives powers on him would be a waste, the opportunity cost of displaying his innocence is huge therefore i will set aside all my other suspicions are claim that zarepath is very likely mafia he has shown a disturbing lack of town incentives, ie random lynch, not going after fakepromise, and his claim for self investigation Show nested quote +On January 31 2012 03:32 SacredSystem wrote: so im not on my computer im on my phone, so i wont write a giant write up, the attacks made on me seemd like they were organized, im pretty sure there seemed to be some team work going on between zelblade and zarepath, their attacks seem like a giant smoke screen because they accuse me of using logic that other players were using as well, and this did make me very frustrated
i also would like to state that im sure zarepaths attacks on me would confirm my innocence, since inwas suspicious of him since day 1, so me bussing him doesnt seem very viable
i am reading all the posts, just to let yiu all know after the fall of zarepath, adam would go on to claim that he no longer feels i am mafia and removes his suspicion of me, and then places it on zelblade and balt11t, balt as we know would later be shot and flip mafia, and if adam were mafia he wouldnt abandon his case on me to turn his attention to balt
Honestly, i could basically quote about half his filter here. It is always the same thing.
He is basically always not thinking the second thought in the line, but also always is very convinced of his results, and follows them aggressively. At the beginning, he was rather inactive, but that has vastly improved throughout the game. This is also what most people criticize about him (next to his IM-style massacring of grammar). However, he is so consistent in this behaviour that it looks a lot more like he actually is new to the mindset mafia requires, rather then an incredibly good actor.
Also, i hate to be the one pointing this out, but has CosmosXAM completely vanished?
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On February 01 2012 16:46 slOosh wrote:Ok. This is about Chocolate. Quick skim of his filter demonstrates that he has some experience with mafia and isn't a total newbie playing his first game. Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 08:34 Chocolate wrote: All right let's do this. Town Sloosh- Great analysis, very active, driving discussion DYH- Good analysis, active, claimed being hit w/ no counterclaim Bromancipate- Kind of on the edge, but has been posting a lot lately w/ good analysis and is driving discussion Cosmos- started zarepath lynch Adam- playing well, contributing Don't know... SS- very hostile attitude, confusing posts, omgus a lot BUT is active and seems to be trying to do analysis Zellblade- just generally shady, lurker like myself Mafia?? Simberto- Now that everyone has pointed out his inconsistencies he seems to me to be a mafia, or at least the best current candidate for a lynch.
There are nine players in the game. He puts five as town, two as null & one as mafia for a total of eight reads (plus himself makes nine). Remember that there are two mafia left (as if town would forget!) and look at his last line. He only considers Simberto as mafia after night 2 ends and people start openly suspecting Simberto. It is a very passive stance. Notice how he says it. He "seems". Then notice how he says that this is the best current candidate. Ok. So logically he is saying that Simberto, of whom he does not strongly believe is the mafia, is the best candidate in his mind. So I ask you guys, what is he thinking going into night 2 without any mafia reads???With this I am leaning much to a Simberto/Chocolate team that is bussing each other so that the other will stand a better chance. With Simberto on the chopping block he drops his thoughts on zelblade and points out Chocolate. This does mean that Sacred is town. Perhaps he is town suffering from serious tunnel vision. I don't like this but at least he has some thought (doesn't matter how well/poorly reasoned it may be). Chocolate, with the 0 reads night 2 is a mafia. It's not that I don't think there are two mafia left, of course there are. I just don't KNOW who the second one is. I also think the main reason that someone would suddenly be on simberto's case just after night ends would be if he had investigated him, which is good evidence on top of some of his posting.
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On February 01 2012 21:46 Chocolate wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 16:46 slOosh wrote:Ok. This is about Chocolate. Quick skim of his filter demonstrates that he has some experience with mafia and isn't a total newbie playing his first game. On February 01 2012 08:34 Chocolate wrote: All right let's do this. Town Sloosh- Great analysis, very active, driving discussion DYH- Good analysis, active, claimed being hit w/ no counterclaim Bromancipate- Kind of on the edge, but has been posting a lot lately w/ good analysis and is driving discussion Cosmos- started zarepath lynch Adam- playing well, contributing Don't know... SS- very hostile attitude, confusing posts, omgus a lot BUT is active and seems to be trying to do analysis Zellblade- just generally shady, lurker like myself Mafia?? Simberto- Now that everyone has pointed out his inconsistencies he seems to me to be a mafia, or at least the best current candidate for a lynch.
There are nine players in the game. He puts five as town, two as null & one as mafia for a total of eight reads (plus himself makes nine). Remember that there are two mafia left (as if town would forget!) and look at his last line. He only considers Simberto as mafia after night 2 ends and people start openly suspecting Simberto. It is a very passive stance. Notice how he says it. He "seems". Then notice how he says that this is the best current candidate. Ok. So logically he is saying that Simberto, of whom he does not strongly believe is the mafia, is the best candidate in his mind. So I ask you guys, what is he thinking going into night 2 without any mafia reads???With this I am leaning much to a Simberto/Chocolate team that is bussing each other so that the other will stand a better chance. With Simberto on the chopping block he drops his thoughts on zelblade and points out Chocolate. This does mean that Sacred is town. Perhaps he is town suffering from serious tunnel vision. I don't like this but at least he has some thought (doesn't matter how well/poorly reasoned it may be). Chocolate, with the 0 reads night 2 is a mafia. It's not that I don't think there are two mafia left, of course there are. I just don't KNOW who the second one is. I also think the main reason that someone would suddenly be on simberto's case just after night ends would be if he had investigated him, which is good evidence on top of some of his posting.
Im quite sure what slOosh is pointing out here (correct me if im wrong) is not that you dont think that there are two mafia left, but rather that you dont seem to be actively scumhunting, and that you went into the 2nd night with no mafia reads, and only felt that simberto was mafia after the night. His point here is this - If you are town, why havent you been scumhunting? As such, he suspects that you are mafia as you already know who scum are, and thus dont need to look through the thread in order to find out who is scum - causing you to not have any actual reads.
And wtf do you mean with the 2nd sentance? Are you saying that one of the people who quickly jumped onto simberto day 3 is the DT? (I am assuming that you are refering to a DT check when you say "investigated".
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On February 01 2012 18:12 Simberto wrote: Also, i hate to be the one pointing this out, but has CosmosXAM completely vanished?
No he hasnt. Look a few posts above yours and you will see that he has posted a few hours before you.
On February 01 2012 12:16 CosmosXAM wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 12:09 Adam4167 wrote:After rereading the thread in its entirety, ive noticed something. Zarepath pushing CosmosXAM as a lynch candidate on day 1 stemmed partly from CosmosXAM pointing the finger a Chocolate for being 'suspicious'. This is a textbook example of what is known as a 'Chainsaw Defense', which is when one mafia gets attacked by a townie, another mafia attacks the accuser to deflect suspicion back on the townie. Its right Here at the bottom of that horrible WIFOM'ey defense of FakePromise. Add on top of this, both times I've called him mafia, hes come out of lurker mode. I'm seeing too much in favor of voting for Chocolate, and not enough redeeming him. ##Vote ChocolateOne thing that sticks out to me in Simberto's filter is the continual redirects onto balt11t. And There Are Lots And Lots Of ThemSo I guess I am posed with the question of was he doing this to pick up the 'town cred' after we inevitably killed balt? (because lets face it, that was going to happen, sooner rather than later) Interesting points, after reading a lot of previous posts I think that my new top three that might be mafia (I know there is only two left) would have to be chocolate simberto zelblade though I doubt both simberto and zelblade would be mafia together, still not even close to 100% on any of these so i think I will hold my vote off for a bit.
I dont think that leaving the thread for a few hours = "completely vanished". Stop trying to redirect attention of yourself.
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Ok, honestly, what do you expect me to do? Only talk about myself the whole day, and hope that we nolynch as a result because not enough people are convinced of my guilt, and then proceed to do that for the rest of the game?
I think that i have explained everything people might find suspicious about me enough. Now, i hope that enough people believe me that i do not die today. And, while me not dieing is obviously an important goal i try to accomplish, since it would be bad for town to lynch a towny, it is also not the only goal i have. Because this game is not only about me surviving, but more importantly about finding mafia. I will of course still answer any remaining questions you might have about my behaviour, but i don't feel like i can accomplish a whole lot by only talking about the only person of whom i am absolutely and 100% sure that he is town, which is me.
Thus, I will not waste the rest of this day which might very well be my last here by doing nothing useful at all. And regarding DT checks, it is very important to realise that those are at best unreliable in a game where there might be both a godfather and a miller. While they are of course important in finding out stuff, they should not be seen as dogmatic truth beyond reason. I am also quite sure that someone will now explain that pointing this out is totally scummy, when it is, in fact, not.
Don't think you are the first one to think about this, i, too, was a bit surprised by the sudden accusations towards me at the beginning of a new day, and came to the conclusion that i might be a miller. However, i also realised that it would not be particularly smart to expose that idea to town and thus expose our DT. Chocolate, however, apparently did not think that far.
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Now, to do something a bit more useful with my time, i will post whom i think is mafia, and why.
Firstly, as i pointed out before, Chocolate
Not really a lot of posts, and those posts consist of nearly no content, and none of that content is new. Acting like he is concerned about lurkers day1, and then lurking like no other for the rest of the game. Only ever talking when directly attacked. When posting, he mostly points out obvious things noone can object to, and tries to avoid antagonising anybody. Slooshs point about his day 3 reads also still stands. Just read his filter.
Second, Bromancipate
I will go into a bit more detail here. Similarly not enough content, and especially not a lot of new ideas. States he would be back for new developements before the lynch Day1 , but completely ignores the zarepath case. In this this post, take a look at how he goes to great lengths to explain stuff about why a townie would never ask for a DT investigation, and acts like it is his own idea. Also note how this is after the point where zarepath is already dead. And now take a look at the end of this post by DoYouHas, which has the exact same ideas in it, but two pages earlier. Most of the rest of his posts are explanations why he does not post as much, or references to his last game. Other then that, there is one case against SS, which is also not very controversial material, and, if my theory is correct, also is only an attack on a towny. Recently, we have minor defense for zelblade, which could be an attempt to pull a zarepath and look good by defending a towny who still gets lynched.
And then we have the whole list business, which is basically textbook scum play, act like you are contributing, producing large posts which look impressive, but basically don't have any information in them, at all. Also, those lists don't even contribute to finding scum, they just analyse who people believe is scum, or who you can easily get lynched without a lot of problems. This sounds more like information mafia would be interested in, then town. Also, his reasoning for this:
Bromancipate Lists are only scummy if they have no purpose and you provide nothing else. There is a very clear reason for mine, I want a succesful lynch and that requires people being aware of others intentions. We will have a real problem if we don't narrow our lynch candidates to two or at most three. Chocolate is certainly not helping himself but it is hard to tell whether he is in a similar boat to zelblade, just not sure how to post. His lurking, voting patterns and his determination to respond only when required is really what is making him look bad. He can redeem himself if he contributes as we have bigger fish to fry. SS however is still responding in an aggressive manner to being questioned and has subsequently disappeared.
This is just wrong. Not only does his list not help in accomplishing those stated goal, it also gives the impression that it is more important how many people have someone on their suspicious list, instead of actually having good arguments WHY that person is suspicious. Also, he is linking Chocolate with zelblade, probably in the hopes of zelblade getting lynched and Chocolate looking good subsequently.
Also, note how this theory lines up perfectly with the votes both on day 1 and day 2. On day 1, we have mafia split 2/2 between both lurker lynch targets, which we now assume are innocent. Then, when zarepath is targeted, they focus on FakePromise, inflating his vote count with 3 mafia votes to make others who just want a lynch more likely to target him, while zarepath keeps his own vote away to stay a bit less suspicious. On day 2, they are both among the last people to vote and lynch zarepath.
Interestingly enough, zelblade is not on that mafia list. That is not because i necessarily think that he is cleared, i just noticed that this mafia team makes a whole lot more sense then any that has zelblade in it.
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The thing is, if I was just trying to pressure Simberto, this is the point where I would back off. The quality of his posting has gone up since my accusation, and some of his defense actually sounds pretty good. However, I want to get a lynch on Simberto, so I go back to my original case against him and it still holds strong. The three pillars of that case
1. Simberto did almost nothing with his influential position. 2. Simberto has a scummy voting record. 3. Simberto has had logical flaws that favor mafia. are the things that Simberto has had the weakest defenses against. So I am going to hold my vote on Simberto and I hope 2+ more of you will vote him as well.
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im sitll holding my vote for zelblade he hasnt convinced me that he is not mafia since you cant recover from defending zarepath
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On February 02 2012 03:48 DoYouHas wrote:The thing is, if I was just trying to pressure Simberto, this is the point where I would back off. The quality of his posting has gone up since my accusation, and some of his defense actually sounds pretty good. However, I want to get a lynch on Simberto, so I go back to my original case against him and it still holds strong. The three pillars of that case 1. Simberto did almost nothing with his influential position. 2. Simberto has a scummy voting record. 3. Simberto has had logical flaws that favor mafia. are the things that Simberto has had the weakest defenses against. So I am going to hold my vote on Simberto and I hope 2+ more of you will vote him as well.
I think 1 is not a good reason to lynch me. It is true that i had an influential position, but i also did not have scum reads of which i was reasonably sure. I never felt confident enough of any read to reasonably push a lynch from it. Maybe i should have used that influence to pressure people more effectively, but that is hardly damning evidence.
2 is true for about half the remaining town.
3 is important, but really only interesting if you go into more details with that. I feel that i have explained my reasoning at all points you mentioned. If i have not, point out which i missed or where you do not find my answers satisfactory.
As an alternative, i propose that we lynch Chocolate today. I have made my reasons why i think he is scum clear in my above post, and also note that you will never gain more information on him then you have now because he posts about 1 post without content a day. But you will always gain more information on me, since i post stuff. This also means that if you really want to lynch me, it is more useful to do that later since that means you have a larger body of information that suddenly increases in relevance when i flip green.
Of course, i am not really a fan of splitting town like this, because even though at the moment we have a pretty sound numerical advantage, this still means that we give a lot of the decision-making power in a lynch to mafia. But to me it is still better when there is only one of the two choices which is a clear error instead of accepting my death, which i absolutely know is bad for us.
But i still hope that we can agree on lynching Chocolate instead, whom i find much more obviously scummy then myself, and for whom i think most people agree that he looks scummy, too. While I might be a more dangerous mafia if i were mafia, i also don't really see the case against me having anywhere near as much substance as the one against Chocolate has. So the question is if you would rather lynch someone who might or might not be mafia, and is more dangerous if he is mafia, but also more useful if he is not, or someone who very, very likely is mafia, but not really destructive if he is, and not really helpful if he is not.
Of course, i also still hope that people realise that i am actually innocent, but even if you are just not really convinced about where i stand, Chocolate is a better target.
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Gah, the three whom I said I thought most likely to be mafia before are still in my mind, but now things are getting so convoluted that its just hard to make up a decision about any of them. I think its time to start looking for whoever is posting A LOT after someones analysis (especially about them) and seems to be trying to clog this up.
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Ok, i will go to bed now. I hope i am still alive tomorrow, but if i am not, take a look at what i wrote before with the knowledge that i flipped green.
Also, i think that you need to be a bit more careful in your investigations, it seems to me that some here start an investigation with "he is guilty, how can i prove that?", instead of "is he mafia or town, what can i find out?", which is obviously a pretty bad way to go about things.
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On February 02 2012 06:46 Simberto wrote: Ok, i will go to bed now. I hope i am still alive tomorrow, but if i am not, take a look at what i wrote before with the knowledge that i flipped green.
Also, i think that you need to be a bit more careful in your investigations, it seems to me that some here start an investigation with "he is guilty, how can i prove that?", instead of "is he mafia or town, what can i find out?", which is obviously a pretty bad way to go about things. Like I said before, I think we probably have some dts who have found peoples' alignments and want to persuade others of their position without actually mentioning that they are dt.
On February 01 2012 14:02 SacredSystem wrote: let me be clear right now my sole focus of suspicion is 100% on zelblade This doesn't really help because ultimately to guarantee a vote for today you will have to vote for either me or simberto. Of course this works if you want a nolynch
On February 01 2012 22:48 zelblade wrote: And wtf do you mean with the 2nd sentance? Are you saying that one of the people who quickly jumped onto simberto day 3 is the DT? (I am assuming that you are refering to a DT check when you say "investigated". Yes
And also Simberto has actually been focusing on zellblade for even longer than I thought before http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=305805¤tpage=5#99
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the only vote i feel confident in, is a vote in favor of lynching zelblade
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non voters and voters of choclate can you please switch your vote over to zelblade if the non voters switch over we can lynch zelblade, if the voters of chocolate switch over we would need 1 more of a lynch
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On February 02 2012 07:43 SacredSystem wrote: non voters and voters of choclate can you please switch your vote over to zelblade if the non voters switch over we can lynch zelblade, if the voters of chocolate switch over we would need 1 more of a lynch Maybe if you reiterated your points for why he should be lynched and show why he is the best candidate your case would be stronger. To me it just seems that you are tunnel visioning him and keep saying, "He defended zarepath, and is thus mafia"
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On February 02 2012 07:28 Chocolate wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2012 06:46 Simberto wrote: Ok, i will go to bed now. I hope i am still alive tomorrow, but if i am not, take a look at what i wrote before with the knowledge that i flipped green.
Also, i think that you need to be a bit more careful in your investigations, it seems to me that some here start an investigation with "he is guilty, how can i prove that?", instead of "is he mafia or town, what can i find out?", which is obviously a pretty bad way to go about things. Like I said before, I think we probably have some dts who have found peoples' alignments and want to persuade others of their position without actually mentioning that they are dt. Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 14:02 SacredSystem wrote: let me be clear right now my sole focus of suspicion is 100% on zelblade This doesn't really help because ultimately to guarantee a vote for today you will have to vote for either me or simberto. Of course this works if you want a nolynch Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 22:48 zelblade wrote: And wtf do you mean with the 2nd sentance? Are you saying that one of the people who quickly jumped onto simberto day 3 is the DT? (I am assuming that you are refering to a DT check when you say "investigated". Yes And also Simberto has actually been focusing on zellblade for even longer than I thought before http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=305805¤tpage=5#99 Ok. You are against a no lynch. Simberto is still the only "best lynch candidate" in your mind as you have said earlier. Prove your mettle. Vote Simberto.
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On February 02 2012 07:43 SacredSystem wrote: non voters and voters of choclate can you please switch your vote over to zelblade if the non voters switch over we can lynch zelblade, if the voters of chocolate switch over we would need 1 more of a lynch Right now you are the only one who wants to lynch Zelblade, and your actions are anti-town as it pushes us to a no lynch.
On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote: chocolate is mafia simberto is town Either Chocolate or Simberto will be lynched today. Vote one of them or be painted red forever.
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Gosh.
SS switch your vote please. As choc has alrdy pointed out we rly need a lynch today and since it doesn't seem like I will be lynched, switch your vote to either sombrero or choc. We still need 5 to lynch. Don't waste your vote voting for someone who isn't likely to be lynched. And you keep mentioning that I defended zarepath when I have already stated that I wasn't and asked you to point out an instance when I did so. instead you just skip over my response to your case. How convenient.
Posting this from phone, on the way to school. Probably can check back before lynch.
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dont we only need 4 to lynch
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so zelblade clearly stood up in defense of zarepath and attacked me he was never suspicious of zarepath at all, then once zarepath fliped red he acted like he was actually a part of lynching zarepath
also im not sold on chocolate or simberto, if anyone wants to convince me, feel free to do so, but even if they are mafia i still view zelblade as being a safer lynch as he has he has yet to do anything that would convince me hes town
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On February 02 2012 08:47 SacredSystem wrote: so zelblade clearly stood up in defense of zarepath and attacked me he was never suspicious of zarepath at all, then once zarepath fliped red he acted like he was actually a part of lynching zarepath
also im not sold on chocolate or simberto, if anyone wants to convince me, feel free to do so, but even if they are mafia i still view zelblade as being a safer lynch as he has he has yet to do anything that would convince me hes town
On January 28 2012 07:10 SacredSystem wrote: chocolate is mafia simberto is town No one should have to convince you. You are either lying or have SERIOUS TUNNEL VISION. It is 4 to lynch ONLY if no one else votes (and 3 modkills happen). That is not likely.
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EBWOP:
(2 modkills) 1 more vote pushes it up to 5 for lynch.
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I am on the road today so I'll be logging in via iPhone. There will NOT be a no lynch today. I'll move my vote onto simberto, if required. I am not entirely sold on his guilt, but a no lynch would put us back in this spot tomorrow, just with one less 'less suspicious' townie.
I'd still rather lynch chocolate, he's played the neutral lurker for 2 full days and nights and after he's thrust into the spotlight, his activity and content spikes? I don't like that.
I'll check back in closer to the deadline to see if I need to move my vote.
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On February 02 2012 07:34 dreamflower wrote: Voting Count Update
Simberto - 3 DoYouHas zelblade slOosh
zelblade - 1 SacredSystem
Chocolate - 2 Simberto Adam4167
Non-Voters - 3 Bromancipate Chocolate CosmosXAM
With 6 people voting at the moment, it is 4 to lynch!
Voting ends in approximately 4 hours and 30 minutes.
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did chocos vote put it at 5 to lynch?
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On February 02 2012 09:15 SacredSystem wrote: did chocos vote put it at 5 to lynch? Nope. 4 is still a majority for 7 voters.
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I am still not 100% on anyone, but I will not want a no lynch so in order to at least get a vote in I am going with simberto, whom I suspected earlier but wasn't totally sure on, also who is currently set to get lynched. Just in case anyone changes I feel I will stick with simberto
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Changing my vote now in case I drive out of signal coverage.
##Unvote Chocolate ##Vote Simberto
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We still feel strongly about SacredSystem, and will use our current lynch on him, as for right now. Simberto is still borderline for us; I still feel null, Probu feels scum. Since he is away for the time being, I will place our vote on SS until I can discuss with him both of our reads. If it gets closer and I still haven't heard, I'll have to make the choice whether to change or not. I still urge everyone to at least re-read SS, as Probu and I both have a moderately strong scum tell on that.
Also, still reading and analyzing current events.
@Cosmas, why do I get this feeling that you absolutely hate committing to anything in this game? You're last post makes me feel like you want to show initiative that you are being a townie, yet don't want any responsibility of a miss-lynch. Is it just me, or is anyone else reading that? Do cat-foot around. You seem so wishy-washy.
RE: Adam
I just caught that you asked me about not pressuring on MG harder. I'd like to respond to that now. The reason I pressure is to gain information not only from that person, but people around that person as well. As well, since I was busy at that time, I felt the thread was going in a different direction when I returned from class after I had spoken at Midnight, and didn't feel bringing it back to cockfighting would have been positive town atmosphere. Concentration had already turned to another source, and I felt that only going back would have damaged town atmosphere more than helping it.
Beyond that, since my aggression was based off of a poorly written, miss-interpreted post, I didn't have anything else to attack with in that regard anyway.
I believe this is the instance you are talking about.
Does that potentially clear it up?
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Going to bed for the night, can't post anymore. See you all tomorrow.
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@Cosmas, why do I get this feeling that you absolutely hate committing to anything in this game? You're last post makes me feel like you want to show initiative that you are being a townie, yet don't want any responsibility of a miss-lynch. Is it just me, or is anyone else reading that? Do cat-foot around. You seem so wishy-washy. Bromancipate, I don't hate committing in this game, just at this moment I do not feel that there is a strong enough candidate as mafia for me to completely go behind, I have said before that I am trying to look at the bigger picture of things and not to focus on one person, I don't know who is mafia and who isn't and until I see enough evidence to form my own opinion of a person I try not to simply go for them. Now I am voting for simberto because 1: He is on my list of who I feel is most likely to be mafia, and 2: he is the majority vote right now, but its very close and I'd rather see someone on my list get lynched then someone to change their vote and there be a no lynch. And frankly your aggressive tone towards everyone in this game doesn't rub me the right way, not trying to insinuate too much I will just be watching you closer from now on and looking closer at your past statements.
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If you aren't trying to insinuate anything, why are you going to look closer at me? Besides, I would encourage you to look at every game I ever played. Maybe you could draw the conclusion that I like to play aggresive, generally speaking, if time constraints allow it.
Dream/Qatol, is there the possibility of an updated, official vote count?
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Start of Night 3
Deeply moved by MidnightGladius' valor and sacrifice, the townspeople of Liquidville gathered together to give him a hero's funeral as darkness fell and twilight wreathed the town in purple veils of mystery. A special coffin was prepared, the finest hearse was hired, and fragrant wreaths of roses were woven to adorn the vaunted killer of a terrible criminal. Several citizens elected to carry the coffin on their shoulders across town, while a choir sang a haunting, beautiful dirge and the local preacher delivered a powerful and touching elegy in MidnightGladius' honor. Not a single eye in that great crowd of Liquidville citizens was dry by the time he was done.
Not a single eye, that is, except for those belonging to Simberto, who was staring dry-eyed at the coffin being lowered into the ground. Suspicion began to burn in the hearts of every citizen when they saw how he failed to weep at all during the funeral, and the entire town began eyeing him as though they suspected him of being a criminal and a killer himself. In the crowd of mourners, someone cried, "String him up!", and in an instant several voices took up the call. Before Simberto could even defend himself, the town descended upon him en masse, hammering him with kicks and punches. Only when his body stiffened in death did a slip of paper flutter out of Simberto's pocket, a prescription for medication to treat Sjögren's syndrome.
Simberto the Townie is dead.
Night 3 has begun. As usual, please send your night actions to me and Qatol. Night 3 will end 24 hours from now, on Thursday, February 2 at 03:00 GMT (+00:00).
QUESTION: Guys, what do you think of switching to a 24-hour-long day rather than the current 48-hour-long day? Considering that there are fewer players left, we want to know if you'd like to speed up the game. That way, we can keep you all from getting bored waiting for the day to end! However, if anyone makes an argument against this (due to time zones or any other reason), please let us know and we'll keep the current schedule as it is.
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Oh dear, time to rethink this again.
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I'm fine with moving to a 24hr day cycle, it would not affect my ability to read/post.
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switch to 24 hour day please
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so now can we go after zelblade
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Well I guess 1 on my previous thought list had to be town (here's hoping the other two are correct) but time to re-evaluate again (not blaming anyone in particular but this is why I wasn't 100% on this) and yea 24 hour day cycle would be fine with me now that the game is moving along
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I like a 24hr day but I request implementation after this cycle (this 24hr night, 48 hr day, then 24 night/day cycles).
Sole reason being that this Saturday I will be out and without internet access for the whole day. (48 hr day allows me to stay the first half while 24 doesn't). Unless I can somehow be exempt from post/vote requirement for 1 day, but that doesn't seem fair.
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Well, good hunting, then.
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Well that was unexpected. Need to take a good look at the thread later.
Wont mind a 24 hr day.
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I am ok with the 24/h day cycle.
Chocolate, why are you trying to out our DT? Is it because you realize youre dead tomorrow and you want to give your last teammate a half a chance to win? If they are getting 'guilty' checks back and then building a case from that, it is in your best interest to NOT say anything so he can continue doing his work.
Now that your only mafia suspect has flipped town, where do you suggest we go next? My vote will be heading your way as soon as the sun comes up.
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On February 02 2012 18:26 Adam4167 wrote: I am ok with the 24/h day cycle.
Chocolate, why are you trying to out our DT? Is it because you realize youre dead tomorrow and you want to give your last teammate a half a chance to win? If they are getting 'guilty' checks back and then building a case from that, it is in your best interest to NOT say anything so he can continue doing his work.
Now that your only mafia suspect has flipped town, where do you suggest we go next? My vote will be heading your way as soon as the sun comes up. I am not trying to out the dt, I just thought there was a reasonable chance that a dt had checked simberto, which started the lynch. DT shouldnt say anything about his role, and I dont want him to yet. If I were mafia I wouldnt post in the thread to tell a teammate, I would just tell him.
I am ok with the 24h cycle since the weekend is coming up. I am most suspicious of SS still because he is tunnel visioning zellblade pretty hard. Then I would go after you if he flips red or zellblade if he flipped green.
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Will be busy for the rest of the night and as such wont be able to post till day starts tomorrow.
Suspicious of both SS and chocolate at this point. Will elaborate on my suspisions tomorrow since I need to go off now, and will not be on a computer for a while.
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Im not kidding when i say this, zelblade is mafia here is a summary of some of his post that i feel best prove that he is mafia first + Show Spoiler +moving on im highlighting another very suspicious post for zelblade On January 28 2012 15:40 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. you are bluffing how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town.
hes clearly defending zarepath, he obviously doesnt want us to put our attention on him, and in order to do this he tries to convince us that we should go after the players who were posting like once a day, and not only that wouldnt even be around to resposnd to what we have to say about them. Also i believe the general consensus of the town was that zarepath's willingness to be checked by the DT to confirm his innocence was clearly the behavior of a mafia. Yet zelblade doesnt seem to agree with that consensus.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 17:33 zelblade wrote:On another note, looking through SS's filter this post of zarepath's which he quoted really jumps out to me. Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. What i think is wierd is the "feel free to investigate me at night part". Why would he want a DT to check him, when he himself even admits that "it will be a waste of an investigation"? I dont think that town would ever request a DT to check him unless there was a high chance that he was going to be lynched the next day, as doing so would use an action which could be better used on a scummy player to try and weed out scum. Finding scum is definately more important, IMO, than confirming 1 townie. As such, this causes me to agree with DoYouHas that perhaps zerpath is indeed the godfather fishing for DT checks, enabling himself to get the status of "confirmed town", whilst wasting a DT check at the same time. Also the way that SS attacks zarepath makes me feel that they probably arent on the same team. I mean, if they were both mafia, why attack each other that way at that time? I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia.
again he defends zarepath in favor of labeling me mafia, even when it becomes beyond a reasonable doubt that zarepath is mafia.
Important
He only votes for zarepath when slo0sh asks him to do so, throughout his posting history he does not show any suspicion or analysis of zarepath. However once the vote shows that zarepath was mafia, he states
+ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while.
he says that despite never being on to zarepath
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Ok I'm talking now and will drive discussion now because staying silent for night is stupid and doesn't help us flush out mafia. If you are waiting for night to almost end before posting so mafia don't shoot good targets, think again. Mafia gonna shoot people they can't lynch while keeping townies with wrong suspicions alive. Right now I think most townies have the wrong suspicions.
I am back on track to lynching Zelblade.
1) Parts of SacredSystem's analysis are actually quite valid if you read them without labeling him as scum in your mind.
On February 02 2012 22:28 SacredSystem wrote:Important He only votes for zarepath when slo0sh asks him to do so, throughout his posting history he does not show any suspicion or analysis of zarepath. However once the vote shows that zarepath was mafia, he states + Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. he says that despite never being on to zarepath This is true. Only after the whole thing (Zarepath lynch and its certainty) fleshes out does Zelblade add this little post
On January 29 2012 12:47 zelblade wrote: As for the lynch today, I have read through the cases on zarepath and i certainly see how he could be the mafia godfather, and DoYouHas makes some good points on how he jumps onto the SS bandwagon which I (whum he suspects to be mafia) am pushing. Honestly I will still prefer to lynch SacredSystem due to how much he is dodging questions. Either way, I wouldnt mind lynching either as I believe both could be mafia. On January 29 2012 17:28 zelblade wrote: Since it seems like Sacred isnt going to get lynched today I will change my vote for now i guess.
##Unvote: SacredSystem ##Vote: Zarepath
Weak and non-commital.
2) Just because the Simberto mislynch is fresh on your minds, don't let it distract you from what was there before. Remember the case against Zelblade
3) Read upon his day 3 posts in his filter.
Still no substance.
4)On February 02 2012 22:28 zelblade wrote: Will be busy for the rest of the night and as such wont be able to post till day starts tomorrow.
Suspicious of both SS and chocolate at this point. Will elaborate on my suspisions tomorrow since I need to go off now, and will not be on a computer for a while. Assumes he will live this night. This isn't as hard of a tell but definitely isn't null. Just points out his suspicions, and says he will go to sleep. Non-commital.
5) Remember Zelblade's apologetic mild mannered nature? How it's his "first game"? + Show Spoiler +On February 01 2012 16:31 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2012 06:17 SacredSystem wrote:Now i believe zelblade is mafia, in his attacks on me he is his very defensive and critical of my attacks on zarepath, his analysis felt far more emotional then logical, Capitalized bold letters, double question marks, the use of logic that isnt logical, and this omggg how could you think that defense My analysis wasnt "emotional". The only capitalized bold letters are a "you", I dont see any double question marks, I dont see you pointing out anything in my analysis that "isnt logical", the "omgggg how could you think that defense" is referring to your OMGUS (in which you attack him because he feels that you are suspisious and for no other reason whatsover) of chocolate. Stop fabricating bullshit that isnt true.Show nested quote +Also just the very notion that you furiously defended someone that fliped red insta makes you a prime suspect. Then on top of that after zarepath was proven mafia you acted like you were all on board with it When the hell have I "furiously defended" him? I had made it clear after the case DYH posted that he seemed scummy and that I was suspisious of him, but moreso on you. Please point out an instance in which I defend him. Cant understand "acted like you were all on board on it". Show nested quote ++ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 17:33 zelblade wrote:On another note, looking through SS's filter this post of zarepath's which he quoted really jumps out to me. Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote: Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. What i think is wierd is the "feel free to investigate me at night part". Why would he want a DT to check him, when he himself even admits that "it will be a waste of an investigation"? I dont think that town would ever request a DT to check him unless there was a high chance that he was going to be lynched the next day, as doing so would use an action which could be better used on a scummy player to try and weed out scum. Finding scum is definately more important, IMO, than confirming 1 townie. As such, this causes me to agree with DoYouHas that perhaps zerpath is indeed the godfather fishing for DT checks, enabling himself to get the status of "confirmed town", whilst wasting a DT check at the same time. Also the way that SS attacks zarepath makes me feel that they probably arent on the same team. I mean, if they were both mafia, why attack each other that way at that time? I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia. notice how he says I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia he was mafia but that didnt seem to change your mind I did say that I prefer lynching you over zarepath because I had a stronger scum read on you, and this was before the DYH case. I am not really sure about that last sentence of yours, but i shall assume (correct me if I am wrong), that you are talking about my "if zarepath = red SS prolly = green" part, I did think so at that point in time but I still am getting a scum feel off you, and as DYH has said; Show nested quote +DoYouHas I feel the need to walk back my defense of SacredSystem a bit. In day2 I was very quick to defend him as he was an early supporter of my analysis. I was looking for things that would let me channel voting towards zarepath. I think that is very clear to everyone. However, after getting zarepath lynched I have looked more closely at the case Adam presented and now Bromancipate. This, on top of the fact that a unanimous vote means support of my analysis and the zarepath lynch are no longer good standards for innocence, makes me retract my earlier defense of SacredSystem. I am going to take advantage of night2 to really look into SacredSystem for myself. Also, I'm going to try and analyze zelblade's day2 posts since we seem to be focusing on his day1 issues a little too much. I now dont believe that the zarepath flip clears you at all. Show nested quote ++ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote: Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while. ja hahah, except you! You were the one defending him As stated, I wasnt defending him. Show nested quote +tldr adam zelblade zelblade seems scared, look how he gave himself away with his aggression on me and his defense of his buddy zarepath
also be careful zelblade, you kill me and i flip green, which i will, you are dead the very next day vote: zelbalde I am not scared, and I didnt "give myself away" with my attacks on you and non-exsistent defense of my so-called buddy. Dont worry, you will be lynched next after simberto flips red. And even if you are somehow town (highly highly doubt so), no scum in their right mind would shoot you, since you are doing an excellent job pushing their agenda for them. Total attitude change. You might say that it is due to constant pressure by SacredSystem. However, consider this: if you were being pressured (as town by someone you think is mafia), why would you lash out like so? Why would you mock someone's arguments as he does in the last line? If you know they got nothing on you and they are making stuff up, it won't faze you. It fazed him.
This is my stance, I make it clear. I'ma get you: Zelblade
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On February 02 2012 21:39 Chocolate wrote: If I were mafia I wouldnt post in the thread to tell a teammate, I would just tell him.
A typical response and WIFOM. I say you were looking to rattle the DT into making himself more obvious, so you had confirmation of your shot.
I ask you again, what possible motive could a townie have for even bringing it up?
How does SS flipping red implicate me as mafia?
Sloosh, what has changed your mind about chocolate between this post and this post?
The analysis on Chocolate shows exactly why he is mafia. He has not been doing any work to further this town and he gives one line explanations as to why people are mafia and this is only after he is prodded.
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On February 03 2012 07:04 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2012 21:39 Chocolate wrote: If I were mafia I wouldnt post in the thread to tell a teammate, I would just tell him.
A typical response and WIFOM. I say you were looking to rattle the DT into making himself more obvious, so you had confirmation of your shot. I ask you again, what possible motive could a townie have for even bringing it up? How does SS flipping red implicate me as mafia? Sloosh, what has changed your mind about chocolate between this post and this post? The analysis on Chocolate shows exactly why he is mafia. He has not been doing any work to further this town and he gives one line explanations as to why people are mafia and this is only after he is prodded. About the dt, I wasn't trying to make him expose himself but was trying to further simberto's case, because it did seem like he was being attacked by a dt due to the quick pressure after night.
SS flipping red doesn't implicate you as mafia because of your reactions but because you are my next in line after him in my mafia list, and I can't see him continually trying to bus his teammate. if he flipped green or blue, especially dt, I would be after zellblade in a heartbeat.
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On February 03 2012 07:04 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2012 21:39 Chocolate wrote: If I were mafia I wouldnt post in the thread to tell a teammate, I would just tell him.
A typical response and WIFOM. I say you were looking to rattle the DT into making himself more obvious, so you had confirmation of your shot. I ask you again, what possible motive could a townie have for even bringing it up? How does SS flipping red implicate me as mafia? Sloosh, what has changed your mind about chocolate between this post and this post? The analysis on Chocolate shows exactly why he is mafia. He has not been doing any work to further this town and he gives one line explanations as to why people are mafia and this is only after he is prodded. Consider the pool of SacredSystem, Zelblade, CosmosXAM and Chocolate. As individuals I would be ok with lynching them all, as I don't think any one of them have done anything particularly pro-town / contributed anything substantial. (sure their interactions with those now dead may indicate certain alignments, but they themselves haven't done anything pro-town)
There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town. MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation.
I did not like Chocolate (moreso than the others) on the basis of a possible Chocolate Simberto pair. Simberto has flipped town, and thus the pair cannot exist. I suspect a different pair, one that includes Zelblade.
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Simberto coming up town has put me in a weird place. I have been using this time tonight to reevaluate and broaden my view of who could be in the mafia. I am taking a very thorough look at the cases that have been made against zelblade and chocolate. I have yet to decide between the two. But I still want to avoid focusing too hard on them and excluding possibilities. I agree about getting our ideas out now instead of waiting at the last moment. So here is where I am at now. I no longer know what to think about SacredSystem or CosmosXAM. Both the zelblade case and the Chocolate case have valid points and right now I'm ok with focusing them day4 (the cases against them, not the cases they present). I also want to go through Simberto's day3 posts again and see what his suspicions were.
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I really don't want to post more and give the mafia a chance to misdirect.
So I just want to point to things I've looked at, and maybe you'll come to same conclusions.
- First, Simberto is town. I think it was a genuine mislynch. So what do mafia with a mislynch led by townies? They stay back, they don't want their hands dirty. Read day 3 again and see who is not really committed in finding out Simberto's alignment.
- Second, read Simberto's posts. He is town, reading them now helps you get a clearer view on things, rather than before when you may have suspected him mafia.
- Third, consider the possible mafia pairs. Who is helping who and for what reasons? Forget bussing. I repeat, forget bussing. We can worry about it if we lynch a mafia. Right now worrying about bussing is detrimental to objective town thinking. The pair I'm thinking are not bussing at all.
Hopefully you get to see what I see. In any case I'll post closer to deadline my full thoughts. In the meantime I'm gonna vote for Zelblade.
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Bad luck Sim but you should have done more. Chat to you after the game
We are close to end game guys and we need to pick up our game. We are nearing LYLO and it is possible that one more mis-lynch loses us the game, so think long and hard about who should die tomorrow.
Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases.
Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game.
If you don't agree, convince me otherwise.
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EBWOP:
post more of what I suspect is the mafia pair, not post more thoughts and discussion.
Want to re - emphasize: (four refers to SacredSystem, Zelblade, CosmosXAM and Chocolate)
On February 03 2012 07:47 slOosh wrote: There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town. MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation.
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On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote:Bad luck Sim but you should have done more. Chat to you after the game We are close to end game guys and we need to pick up our game. We are nearing LYLO and it is possible that one more mis-lynch loses us the game, so think long and hard about who should die tomorrow. Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases. Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game. If you don't agree, convince me otherwise.
Could you tell us how you two resolved the issue of Zelblade? I know that for Jitsu, Zelblade was his most prominent suspect. I would like to what happened.
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On February 03 2012 08:07 slOosh wrote: I really don't want to post more and give the mafia a chance to misdirect.
So I just want to point to things I've looked at, and maybe you'll come to same conclusions.
- First, Simberto is town. I think it was a genuine mislynch. So what do mafia with a mislynch led by townies? They stay back, they don't want their hands dirty. Read day 3 again and see who is not really committed in finding out Simberto's alignment.
- Second, read Simberto's posts. He is town, reading them now helps you get a clearer view on things, rather than before when you may have suspected him mafia.
- Third, consider the possible mafia pairs. Who is helping who and for what reasons? Forget bussing. I repeat, forget bussing. We can worry about it if we lynch a mafia. Right now worrying about bussing is detrimental to objective town thinking. The pair I'm thinking are not bussing at all.
Hopefully you get to see what I see. In any case I'll post closer to deadline my full thoughts. In the meantime I'm gonna vote for Zelblade.
Alright I think I know where you are going with this and felt I should respond. Simberto's scum reads were Chocolate and myself. Like I said above, Chocolate looks bad but we have most of town analysing his play hence I will look into others players in the off chance Chocolate is town. We can't afford to lynch Chocolate and then find out he is just a really scummy townie whilst when you look at Cosmos he looks just as bad. So for now I will leave Chocolate to you guys whilst I look elsewere.
As for his case on me, would you like me to respond to it? I am town so I don't need to convince myself otherwise. No-one has brought it up so I assume that others realise I have been pushing a town agenda. I have been and am always looking for scum, there is no point me defending myself against accusations that no-one believes. So again, would you like me to defend myself against his case?
Thirdly, what is with the change of heart? You stated earlier that "Ok I'm talking now and will drive discussion now because staying silent for night is stupid and doesn't help us flush out mafia. " but now you won't tell us what you are thinking but instead insinuate that you think that Simberto was onto something which could only mean that you think I am scum. So if that is the case, come out and say it.
Like I said earlier, I won't defend myself against cases that look flimsy to me and are just a distraction for town. But if you geniunely feel that I am scum then I will explain my actions.
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On February 03 2012 08:12 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote:Bad luck Sim but you should have done more. Chat to you after the game We are close to end game guys and we need to pick up our game. We are nearing LYLO and it is possible that one more mis-lynch loses us the game, so think long and hard about who should die tomorrow. Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases. Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game. If you don't agree, convince me otherwise. Could you tell us how you two resolved the issue of Zelblade? I know that for Jitsu, Zelblade was his most prominent suspect. I would like to what happened.
Simple really, a matter of my defense of zelblade and a process of elimination. Jitsu has come round to my view that whilst his play is really newb, it looks like town newb. We have to make a decision and that is the one we are making. Its not easy with us living on other sides of the globe so we don't really get to have long discussions on our reads. We just have to trust each other's judgement. Besides, when placed against Cosmos and Chocolate he looks the most town of them all.
Does that answer your question?
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Ok I'll come out and just say it. All the cards on the table.
I think Bromanicpate is mafia along with Zelblade.
I didn't want to straight up do this since I wanted others to think about this before I posted anything, as I do not have too much confidence in my ability to articulate and did not want to give you the chance to rip apart my analysis based on my poor articulation rather than reasoning. Townspeople, please focus on my reasoning.
Again I want to re-emphasize, mafia pairs.
Bromancipate has been playing a game of subtle persuasion, misdirecting the town as he has become more active. The reason why this is so strong is that it seems pro-town lynching suspicious people, but as I have said three times now, we cannot lynch one by one.On February 03 2012 07:47 slOosh wrote: There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town. MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation.
First is his redirection off Zelblade. We as a town were set against Zelblade. He slowly comes in, saying that in posts earlier that he does not think zelblade is mafia. Then he takes attention off zelblade and puts it onto SacredSystem.
This is effective since SacredSystem seems so mafia. However, notice SacredSystem's continous push to lynch Zelblade. I think this is not work of mafia, nor ingnorant townie. I think it is work of Detective, trying desperately hard to convince the town without straight up roleclaiming as that would not work. Why would he keep persisting, trying to bring up the same points over and over? This is beyond tunneling or bussing. ___________________________________________________
On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote: Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases.
Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game.
- Notice that DoYouHas is missing. Again. - Zelblade the one he says again and again is townie newb is labeled "scummy as hell". - More importantly, I posted three times that we need to consider pairs. Yet he is still going after one at a time, and tries to get town to do it as well.
___________________________________________________
I want us to take a step back and think big picture.
Bromancipate lurks (or is genuinly busy) day 1. He jumps on Zarepath lynch (7th vote when he realizes he going to get lynched). He defends Zelblade (guy we all thought was mafia and were going to lynch) whilst attacking SacredSystem, which works well since SacredSystem is so suspicious. Out of nowhere has this guy come and implanted into our thinking that he is townie without any actual contribution (just an increase in activity). He tries to keep our attention on the pool of suspicious players when I clearly state multiple times that that kind of method won't work.
What is most frustrating is is how he is a hydra, with two heads that can think opposing thoughts, capable of acting on either head's thoughts without being held accountable to the other. Notice how many times they conflict and conveniently resolve, aligning with the most "pro-town" option possible.
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I don't see why I am suddenly a target again, but I feel a zelblade lynch would be best at this point simply based on the options left. Bromancipate bugs me but being a hydra is a pain to try and read and study, so I am not sure who is talking when or what their specific opinions are at that time. A team between the two is plausible but we can only really wait until one of them dies to make an astute conclusion about that.
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Interesting theory sl0osh, I can definitely see what you mean. Bromancipate/zelblade would fit into a similar framework as Simberto/SacredSystem did for me day3. I still think it is very likely mafia have a godfather because of us having at least 2 blue roles (which by extension would mean we have a detective making it 3) and from a day1 mafia perspective it would make sense to make the godfather the only person who had played before. And if Bromancipate is mafia, it makes sense that zelblade would be the other one due to Bromancipate being the person initially pulling suspicion off zelblade. Yet another thing for me to look at going into day4.
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Well thanks for coming out saying it. I am writing up my defense now but just quickly why does a supposed SS DT finding zelblade as scum make me scum just because I defended him. My initial response to this was conformation bias all the way. You are convinced that zelblade is scum and so my defense of him must be a scum protecting his buddy. Well it is not. I don't want us to lynch a townie, so if I believe someone is town I will defend them. Just because you come to a different conclusion does not mean that I am scum.
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was the day/night time frame changed?
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i have a longer post coming i just dont want to have to type it all out on my phone
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On February 03 2012 09:48 CosmosXAM wrote: I don't see why I am suddenly a target again, but I feel a zelblade lynch would be best at this point simply based on the options left. Bromancipate bugs me but being a hydra is a pain to try and read and study, so I am not sure who is talking when or what their specific opinions are at that time. A team between the two is plausible but we can only really wait until one of them dies to make an astute conclusion about that.
I have sent my response to sl0osh to Jitsu to make sure he agrees with what I am saying. I guess as a hydra we should try and make a united appearance. The problem is that doing this delays when we can respond and makes us look bad. That is why I think it is better that I post my opinions immediately. I am sure it can be a little confusing but at least it is transparent. Since you guys have complained I will try and get Jitsu's approval for stuff before we post just don't expect immediate answers.
As for you being a target, you are simply a target for my analysis. I believe there is a mafia between you and Chocolate and everyone is looking at Chocolate. Hence my look at your filter.
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On February 03 2012 09:53 Bromancipate wrote: Well thanks for coming out saying it. I am writing up my defense now but just quickly why does a supposed SS DT finding zelblade as scum make me scum just because I defended him. My initial response to this was conformation bias all the way. You are convinced that zelblade is scum and so my defense of him must be a scum protecting his buddy. Well it is not. I don't want us to lynch a townie, so if I believe someone is town I will defend them. Just because you come to a different conclusion does not mean that I am scum.
My belief that zelblade is mafia is only a support, NOT a foundation to my case against you. I want to make that clear right now.
I assume you read my post and still believe that zelblade is town (despite calling him "scummy as hell").
As I have said before, a case can be made against any of the four, but it stands to reason that at least two of them MUST be town. And so if you still so strongly believe that zelblade is town, I wish for your thoughts on my post and how either Chocolate or CosmosXAM is much more likely to be mafia.
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We are at 6 town 2 mafia. In the worst case scenario: night ends: 5 town 2 mafia mislynch : 4 town 2 mafia night: 3 town 2 mafia
With only 1 mislynch we approach lylo, and as I have said, there are 4 candidates whom people would lynch as individuals but we can't do this. At least 2 MUST be town.
Please don't forget this point I think this is so crucial.
Also I find the twice now lack of acknowledgement of DoYouHas as town very disconcerting.
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Alright I have read your recent posts sl0osh but this is my defense of your earlier case. I will respond to the latest ones after this.
On February 03 2012 09:31 slOosh wrote:Ok I'll come out and just say it. All the cards on the table. I think Bromanicpate is mafia along with Zelblade. I didn't want to straight up do this since I wanted others to think about this before I posted anything, as I do not have too much confidence in my ability to articulate and did not want to give you the chance to rip apart my analysis based on my poor articulation rather than reasoning. Townspeople, please focus on my reasoning. Again I want to re-emphasize, mafia pairs. Bromancipate has been playing a game of subtle persuasion, misdirecting the town as he has become more active. The reason why this is so strong is that it seems pro-town lynching suspicious people, but as I have said three times now, we cannot lynch one by one. Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 07:47 slOosh wrote: There are two mafia left, which is to say that out of these four at least 2 MUST be Town. MUST be. So you need to be a lookout for 2 mafia and see their interactions with each other and the town, as looking at individuals does not work in this situation.
Well I don't agree with your logic here. People play this game as individuals, sure mafia is a team but they still have to post on single accounts. We can only lynch one person at a time so making a decision about a pair is useless. To me mafia are the ones driving an agenda that is not beneficial to town. If someone is suspicious it is normally because they are driving an agenda that does this. That is why I hunt scum. I don't really care who is town because I don't have to choose to lynch a townie. I need to be sure that person is scum.
Besides focusing on pairs allows you to be swayed by WIFOM. Take this circumstance right now. It is quite possible that Zelblade is scum and I am town. I know I am town so for me it comes down to my belief about zelblade. If I think he is town I will defend him. But for you, you see it that we are somehow connected simply because I am defending him. That makes no sense. This focus on pairs makes you believe that we are intrinsically linked when in fact we are not.
Hence why I disregarded it as an idea.
First is his redirection off Zelblade. We as a town were set against Zelblade. He slowly comes in, saying that in posts earlier that he does not think zelblade is mafia. Then he takes attention off zelblade and puts it onto SacredSystem.
I stand by this. I think Zelblade is town and SS is mafia. It is WIFOM in its simplest form. I don't know if SS and Zelblade are town, and you don't know that I am town. There could be a mafia amonst us, or not. So to you because Zelblade looks scummy I must be mafia targeting a town. But what if zelblade is town. Then maybe I am a townie targeting who I think is mafia.
Now, this hinges on what you believe zelblade alignment is. But bare in mind, even if Zeblade flips mafia that does not mean I am mafia and SS is town. Sure it is more evidence but that is all. This thinking that simply because I defended someone who turns out to be scum makes me scum is wrong. Everyone can make mistakes.
This is effective since SacredSystem seems so mafia. However, notice SacredSystem's continous push to lynch Zelblade. I think this is not work of mafia, nor ingnorant townie. I think it is work of Detective, trying desperately hard to convince the town without straight up roleclaiming as that would not work. Why would he keep persisting, trying to bring up the same points over and over? This is beyond tunneling or bussing.
So that is why you think Zelblade is scum. Because SS refuses to budge from Zelblade. You could use the same logic for my defense of zelblade. I am not claiming I am simply pointing out that unless SS straight up claims DT with a mafia check you are still making assumptions based on WIFOM.
Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 08:08 Bromancipate wrote: Jitsu and I are still convinced that SacredSystem is the mafia hiding in plain sight. Given both Adam and sl0osh are town in our minds that leaves one in Zelblade, Cosmos and Chocolate. All three are scummy as hell but zelblade looks the most "towny" to me. That leaves a choice between Cosmos and Chocolate. Chocolate is getting the heat at the moment which I expect to continue. I don't want us tunneling another townie letting scum hide. So Cosmos will be my target analysis. We can then compare cases.
Right now it seems to me if we lynch either zelblade, cosmos or chocolate tomorrow we are taking a risk that does not need to be taken. SacredSystem is the most obvious mafia to me and has been all game. - Notice that DoYouHas is missing. Again. - Zelblade the one he says again and again is townie newb is labeled "scummy as hell". - More importantly, I posted three times that we need to consider pairs. Yet he is still going after one at a time, and tries to get town to do it as well.
I don't know why DYH keeps disappearing from my lists. I just don't notice his posting. If that is what you think makes me mafia then you are going to have to try harder. You still haven't explained how this is driving a mafia agenda. I have not pushed for his lynch or even labelled him scummy. I simply missed him.
Zelblade is scummy as hell, he just looks less scummy than the rest of them. I can like your arguments and agree that he looks like a mafia without believing his is mafia. Look at it differently, I can say who I think is town and then label the rest scummy. Well I don't want to be labellign scum as town so I keep that list short and label the ones that look sort of townie, as scummy. Again, this doesn't explain where the motivation is. You haven't explained how my actions are actively leading to a town loss. The only thing you have said is that I took attention away from Zelblade and pushed it onto SS. Well I stand by that, I think SS is much more likely to flip red than Zelblade. If I believe this, why wouldn't I defend Zelblade?
I want us to take a step back and think big picture.
Bromancipate lurks (or is genuinly busy) day 1. He jumps on Zarepath lynch (7th vote when he realizes he going to get lynched).
I know you guys hate the hydra thing but I really wasn't here for that. Maybe Jitsu can explain it. Even so there were others who jumped on that wagon as well.
He defends Zelblade (guy we all thought was mafia and were going to lynch) whilst attacking SacredSystem, which works well since SacredSystem is so suspicious.
See above.
Out of nowhere has this guy come and implanted into our thinking that he is townie without any actual contribution (just an increase in activity).
Actually I would argue that trying to move a lynch off someone who I think is town to someone who is mafia is contributing, but hey don't let that cloud your judgement.
He tries to keep our attention on the pool of suspicious players when I clearly state multiple times that that kind of method won't work.
What is most frustrating is is how he is a hydra, with two heads that can think opposing thoughts, capable of acting on either head's thoughts without being held accountable to the other. Notice how many times they conflict and conveniently resolve, aligning with the most "pro-town" option possible.
Well I don't agree with your logic on that so why should I follow it. Just because people (including myself) have labelled you town does not mean that I have to follow your instructions. Finally, how does pushing a pro-town option make me scum? Should I be pushing a mafia agenda instead?
Wait, maybe I should push my own ideas.
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On February 03 2012 10:57 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 09:53 Bromancipate wrote: Well thanks for coming out saying it. I am writing up my defense now but just quickly why does a supposed SS DT finding zelblade as scum make me scum just because I defended him. My initial response to this was conformation bias all the way. You are convinced that zelblade is scum and so my defense of him must be a scum protecting his buddy. Well it is not. I don't want us to lynch a townie, so if I believe someone is town I will defend them. Just because you come to a different conclusion does not mean that I am scum. My belief that zelblade is mafia is only a support, NOT a foundation to my case against you. I want to make that clear right now. I assume you read my post and still believe that zelblade is town (despite calling him "scummy as hell"). As I have said before, a case can be made against any of the four, but it stands to reason that at least two of them MUST be town. And so if you still so strongly believe that zelblade is town, I wish for your thoughts on my post and how either Chocolate or CosmosXAM is much more likely to be mafia.
I will take another look at Zelblade. I do find it weird that he hasn't responded to my defense of him. In fact he hasn't responded to me at all. As for the others, I am much more suspicious of Chocolate than Cosmos but I want to rule out us ignoring someone who hasn't contributed a ton, hence why he is still on my reading list.
Sorry guys I forgot to do the sign thing.
/Probulous
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On February 03 2012 11:07 slOosh wrote: We are at 6 town 2 mafia. In the worst case scenario: night ends: 5 town 2 mafia mislynch : 4 town 2 mafia night: 3 town 2 mafia
With only 1 mislynch we approach lylo, and as I have said, there are 4 candidates whom people would lynch as individuals but we can't do this. At least 2 MUST be town.
Please don't forget this point I think this is so crucial.
Also I find the twice now lack of acknowledgement of DoYouHas as town very disconcerting.
I agree that we have to be careful. I don't agree that the fact we have two town in there is of upmost importance. I could justify all their actions from a town point of view. That is why it is better to focus on the motivations for people's posts. There will always be circumstances where town targets town, if you use that as evidence for one being scum then mafia can sit back and laugh. Why link them at all? Much better to ascertain the reason they went after the townie. That will tell you more.
Finally, I addressed your concern about DYH being missing from my town list. If this is a problem for you I will calm your mind.
DoYouHas is town.
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On February 03 2012 11:15 Bromancipate wrote: Well I don't agree with your logic here. People play this game as individuals, sure mafia is a team but they still have to post on single accounts. We can only lynch one person at a time so making a decision about a pair is useless. To me mafia are the ones driving an agenda that is not beneficial to town. If someone is suspicious it is normally because they are driving an agenda that does this. That is why I hunt scum. I don't really care who is town because I don't have to choose to lynch a townie. I need to be sure that person is scum. This is precisely the thought process I don't want town to get. I have made it very clear. 4 suspects. 2 MUST BE TOWN. You have to accept that at least two of them are town, DESPITE their scumminess as you call it. It is very logical to consider as mafia as pairs as to help make better reads.
Besides focusing on pairs allows you to be swayed by WIFOM. Take this circumstance right now. It is quite possible that Zelblade is scum and I am town. I know I am town so for me it comes down to my belief about zelblade. If I think he is town I will defend him. But for you, you see it that we are somehow connected simply because I am defending him. That makes no sense. This focus on pairs makes you believe that we are intrinsically linked when in fact we are not.
Hence why I disregarded it as an idea. It does make sense to see an interaction between two players and note the relationship between them. I have stated before that my read on Bromancipate is not solely founded upon my read on Zelblade. That is not what I said.
So to you because Zelblade looks scummy I must be mafia targeting a town. Again, no. Bromancipate is painting an incorrect picture of my argument.
So that is why you think Zelblade is scum. Because SS refuses to budge from Zelblade. You could use the same logic for my defense of zelblade. I am not claiming I am simply pointing out that unless SS straight up claims DT with a mafia check you are still making assumptions based on WIFOM. No, this is why I believe zelblade is mafia. I am not basing it off WIFOM, I have a very clear analytical basis of believing Zelblade is mafia.
I don't know why DYH keeps disappearing from my lists. I just don't notice his posting. If that is what you think makes me mafia then you are going to have to try harder. You still haven't explained how this is driving a mafia agenda. I have not pushed for his lynch or even labelled him scummy. I simply missed him. This is anti-town as it plants seeds of doubt concerning one of the most town people here. I believe Simberto was a genuine mislynch. No one has counterclaimed DYH's hit. He pushed for Zarepath lynch, even when I backed off. Distrust is anti-town. Guys, please notice how again this is subtle influence over town.
Zelblade is scummy as hell, he just looks less scummy than the rest of them. I can like your arguments and agree that he looks like a mafia without believing his is mafia. Look at it differently, I can say who I think is town and then label the rest scummy. Well I don't want to be labellign scum as town so I keep that list short and label the ones that look sort of townie, as scummy. Again, this doesn't explain where the motivation is. You haven't explained how my actions are actively leading to a town loss. The only thing you have said is that I took attention away from Zelblade and pushed it onto SS. Well I stand by that, I think SS is much more likely to flip red than Zelblade. If I believe this, why wouldn't I defend Zelblade? Again, Bromancipate sidesteps my reasoning. Focusing on the 4 suspects leads to town loss as we only have room to lynch two of them and two of them are TOWN. And I never said actively. I said clearly that he is subtly trying to distract & misdirect us. The last line is illogical. If you think someone is much more likely to flip red, you don't defend the other suspect, but you push forward the first suspect.
Actually I would argue that trying to move a lynch off someone who I think is town to someone who is mafia is contributing, but hey don't let that cloud your judgement.
Well I don't agree with your logic on that so why should I follow it. Just because people (including myself) have labelled you town does not mean that I have to follow your instructions. It's ok to disagree with my logic, but it is not town to simply ignore and brush it aside. It is more helpful to town to reason with me why you think something illogical, that both I and other townspeople would not fall into a logical mistake. He paints me in a bad light again by skewing reality. I never commanded anyone and have welcomed correction multiple times.
Lastly he does not treat my argument seriously. He makes light of it. Throughout his response he sidesteps, he sets up scarecrows, he paints me in bad light. Notice how he ends his defense.
Finally, how does pushing a pro-town option make me scum? Should I be pushing a mafia agenda instead?
Wait, maybe I should push my own ideas. I argued that it is not pro-town. The last two lines are condescending. Definitely not how town treat other town.
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On February 03 2012 11:26 Bromancipate wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 11:07 slOosh wrote: We are at 6 town 2 mafia. In the worst case scenario: night ends: 5 town 2 mafia mislynch : 4 town 2 mafia night: 3 town 2 mafia
With only 1 mislynch we approach lylo, and as I have said, there are 4 candidates whom people would lynch as individuals but we can't do this. At least 2 MUST be town.
Please don't forget this point I think this is so crucial.
Also I find the twice now lack of acknowledgement of DoYouHas as town very disconcerting. I agree that we have to be careful. I don't agree that the fact we have two town in there is of upmost importance. I could justify all their actions from a town point of view. That is why it is better to focus on the motivations for people's posts. There will always be circumstances where town targets town, if you use that as evidence for one being scum then mafia can sit back and laugh. Why link them at all? Much better to ascertain the reason they went after the townie. That will tell you more. Finally, I addressed your concern about DYH being missing from my town list. If this is a problem for you I will calm your mind. DoYouHas is town. I never did that. You will notice my case on Zelblade has nothing to do on his attack on FakePromise, nor his defense of Zarepath, nor any interaction with Simberto. I also never said we should link them all. I do not appreciate you twisting up what I said.
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Start of Day 4
The night was quiet again. Deafeningly quiet.
It is now Day 4. Following the request of a player who wanted to follow the extended schedule for one more day, you have 48 hours to decide whom to lynch. The deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00) on Saturday, February 4.
Edit: Woo, I'm a zealot! And it only took me three years to get it. -_-
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I knew it. Adam was shot.
##Vote Zelblade.
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If he was this makes me feel like he was on the right track with chocolate, not clearing zelblade but 1:how do you know he was shot, 2:why the instant jump to zelblade (i still feel zelblade is mafia, not trying to say he isnt)
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On February 03 2012 11:51 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 11:15 Bromancipate wrote: Well I don't agree with your logic here. People play this game as individuals, sure mafia is a team but they still have to post on single accounts. We can only lynch one person at a time so making a decision about a pair is useless. To me mafia are the ones driving an agenda that is not beneficial to town. If someone is suspicious it is normally because they are driving an agenda that does this. That is why I hunt scum. I don't really care who is town because I don't have to choose to lynch a townie. I need to be sure that person is scum. This is precisely the thought process I don't want town to get. I have made it very clear. 4 suspects. 2 MUST BE TOWN. You have to accept that at least two of them are town, DESPITE their scumminess as you call it. It is very logical to consider as mafia as pairs as to help make better reads.
Of course but how does that help us find scum? If you don't focus on what people say and why they say it who cares what connections there may be? I am trying hard not to get frustrated because I just can't see what is so important about there being two town in that group of four? Hell there could be three, or even four town (very unlikely). I understand that at a minimum two must be town but what does finding that tell us? We still have to vote for someone.
In any case, our methods clearly differ. Well that is not a mafia agenda or motivation thing. We simply approach things differently. I don't see how you can use this against me.
Show nested quote +Besides focusing on pairs allows you to be swayed by WIFOM. Take this circumstance right now. It is quite possible that Zelblade is scum and I am town. I know I am town so for me it comes down to my belief about zelblade. If I think he is town I will defend him. But for you, you see it that we are somehow connected simply because I am defending him. That makes no sense. This focus on pairs makes you believe that we are intrinsically linked when in fact we are not.
Hence why I disregarded it as an idea. It does make sense to see an interaction between two players and note the relationship between them.
Sure that is fair but can you please outline what you find so incriminating about me? From my reading of your case, it comes down to my opposition to your focus on TWO TOWN thing and my support for Zelblade. Aside from that there is a weak thing about me not mentioning DYH despite this not having any affect on the game and then there is my late vote for Zarepath. Well others voted late too, that is probably the only hard evidence you have presented.
I have stated before that my read on Bromancipate is not solely founded upon my read on Zelblade. That is not what I said. Again, no. Bromancipate is painting an incorrect picture of my argument.
So what is it then? I am trying to understand your logic but you aren't making sense. What, despite my support for Zelblade, makes me mafia?
Show nested quote + So that is why you think Zelblade is scum. Because SS refuses to budge from Zelblade. You could use the same logic for my defense of zelblade. I am not claiming I am simply pointing out that unless SS straight up claims DT with a mafia check you are still making assumptions based on WIFOM.
No, this is why I believe zelblade is mafia. I am not basing it off WIFOM, I have a very clear analytical basis of believing Zelblade is mafia.
Sure but you went back and forth on him. I can't believe that my defense of someone who I believe was heading for a mislynch is killing me. What I wrote there was misleading and posted in frustration. I know you had a case on Zelblade, I didn't mean it to appear otherwise.
Show nested quote +I don't know why DYH keeps disappearing from my lists. I just don't notice his posting. If that is what you think makes me mafia then you are going to have to try harder. You still haven't explained how this is driving a mafia agenda. I have not pushed for his lynch or even labelled him scummy. I simply missed him. This is anti-town as it plants seeds of doubt concerning one of the most town people here. I believe Simberto was a genuine mislynch. No one has counterclaimed DYH's hit. He pushed for Zarepath lynch, even when I backed off. Distrust is anti-town. Guys, please notice how again this is subtle influence over town.
No it does not. I doubt anyone here thinks DYH is scum. No-one has presented a case against him. No-one has said anything to make him look bad. I even posted after you called it out the first time that I think he is town. I would wager that everyone would have missed that completely if you had not mentioned it and it would not have made them vote for DYH. The only person who mentioned DYH in a suspicious manner at all was SacredSystem which I pointed out in my list. I don't see how you can draw a conclusion that I am misleading town by not leading them.
Show nested quote +Zelblade is scummy as hell, he just looks less scummy than the rest of them. I can like your arguments and agree that he looks like a mafia without believing his is mafia. Look at it differently, I can say who I think is town and then label the rest scummy. Well I don't want to be labellign scum as town so I keep that list short and label the ones that look sort of townie, as scummy. Again, this doesn't explain where the motivation is. You haven't explained how my actions are actively leading to a town loss. The only thing you have said is that I took attention away from Zelblade and pushed it onto SS. Well I stand by that, I think SS is much more likely to flip red than Zelblade. If I believe this, why wouldn't I defend Zelblade? Again, Bromancipate sidesteps my reasoning. Focusing on the 4 suspects leads to town loss as we only have room to lynch two of them and two of them are TOWN. And I never said actively. I said clearly that he is subtly trying to distract & misdirect us. The last line is illogical. If you think someone is much more likely to flip red, you don't defend the other suspect, but you push forward the first suspect.
You do both, which is what I said. There was no way SS was getting lynched unless I tried to show that Zelblade is town. I did post my case on SS, how can you argue that I didn't push for an SS lynch? As for your logic on the two town thing I don't see how that helps us make up our mind about who to lynch. Should we focus on two instead? How about one? How about SacredSystem?
If I have a scum in my sights I will push until that man swings. Maybe you don't like my methods, but they are what they are.
Show nested quote +Actually I would argue that trying to move a lynch off someone who I think is town to someone who is mafia is contributing, but hey don't let that cloud your judgement.
Well I don't agree with your logic on that so why should I follow it. Just because people (including myself) have labelled you town does not mean that I have to follow your instructions. It's ok to disagree with my logic, but it is not town to simply ignore and brush it aside. It is more helpful to town to reason with me why you think something illogical, that both I and other townspeople would not fall into a logical mistake. He paints me in a bad light again by skewing reality. I never commanded anyone and have welcomed correction multiple times.
Just because I don't agree with your methods doesn't mean I am going to spend my time explaining to town why they are bad. Maybe they work for you. I don't really care as long as your reads reflect my thoughts and you are not mafia. For you however it seems that if people disagree with your methods they must be mafia? I don't understand this at all and it is heller frustrating.
You are using my opposition to your methods as proof that I am scum? I didn't want to swallow this thread is pointless arguing about stuff that doesn't find mafia. Only when you label me scum because of that am I going to point that out. I don't think you are mafia, I am almost sure you are town. So why cast unnecessary suspicion on you?
Lastly he does not treat my argument seriously. He makes light of it. Throughout his response he sidesteps, he sets up scarecrows, he paints me in bad light. Notice how he ends his defense. Show nested quote +Finally, how does pushing a pro-town option make me scum? Should I be pushing a mafia agenda instead?
Wait, maybe I should push my own ideas. I argued that it is not pro-town. The last two lines are condescending. Definitely not how town treat other town.
Well I'm frustrated in being drawn into an argument that does not benefit us at all. I am town and I believe you are town. Responding to you distracts from ensuring the final two mafia will swing. My apologies if you took offence at my condescension.
/Probulous
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On February 03 2012 12:03 slOosh wrote: I knew it. Adam was shot.
##Vote Zelblade.
Congratulations mate! Very nice save
Hopefully Adam will be in here shortly to confirm. I will look into Zelblade again. I haven't had time because I have defending myself against you.
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On February 03 2012 12:13 CosmosXAM wrote: If he was this makes me feel like he was on the right track with chocolate, not clearing zelblade but 1:how do you know he was shot, 2:why the instant jump to zelblade (i still feel zelblade is mafia, not trying to say he isnt)
He claimed medic, that is the only way he would know if Adam was shot. I think he is sold on Zelblade.
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Alrighty then, the time has finally come. I am the Detective. You know this to be true, but to make sure, I have been breadcrumbing. The first night I investigated CosmosXAM, he was a Townie + Show Spoiler +First character first line, second character second line, x=x. Forms the word checking in a diagonal line pointing to CosmosXAM in this post. The second night I investigated SacredSystem, he was a Townie + Show Spoiler +In this post I formed the word investigate out of 'inv'entory, 'esta'blish, 'gat'her, lik'e', all leading to SacredSystem. The third night I investigated zelblade, he was a Townie + Show Spoiler +In this post I did the same thing as with SacredSystem, except with the words 'in', 've'ry, 'sti'll, waitin'g', 'at, th'e', leading to zelblade.
So now, what to do with this information? I have not checked sl0osh, Adam, Bromancipate, or Chocolate. Given the nature of the day1 performances of all the people I have checked so far (lurking) I find it unlikely that a godfather is among them, especially with Bromancipate on the board. I have strong town reads on sl0osh and Adam, and apparently Adam has been saved tonight, (still waiting on confirmation). This leaves our remaining mafia as Bromancipate and Chocolate.
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On February 03 2012 12:40 Bromancipate wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 12:13 CosmosXAM wrote: If he was this makes me feel like he was on the right track with chocolate, not clearing zelblade but 1:how do you know he was shot, 2:why the instant jump to zelblade (i still feel zelblade is mafia, not trying to say he isnt) He claimed medic, that is the only way he would know if Adam was shot. I think he is sold on Zelblade.
Yea I assumed he was medic after that statement, I just don't see a reason to paint a target on his back like that for mafia, he wasn't in danger of being lynched and adam wasn't either. I guess adam being shot helps the point on chocolate, not so much on zelblade, adam barely seemed to talk of zelblade recently.
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On February 03 2012 12:47 DoYouHas wrote:Alrighty then, the time has finally come. I am the Detective. You know this to be true, but to make sure, I have been breadcrumbing. The first night I investigated CosmosXAM, he was a Townie + Show Spoiler +First character first line, second character second line, x=x. Forms the word checking in a diagonal line pointing to CosmosXAM in this post.The second night I investigated SacredSystem, he was a Townie + Show Spoiler +In this post I formed the word investigate out of 'inv'entory, 'esta'blish, 'gat'her, lik'e', all leading to SacredSystem. The third night I investigated zelblade, he was a Townie + Show Spoiler +In this post I did the same thing as with SacredSystem, except with the words 'in', 've'ry, 'sti'll, waitin'g', 'at, th'e', leading to zelblade. So now, what to do with this information? I have not checked sl0osh, Adam, Bromancipate, or Chocolate. Given the nature of the day1 performances of all the people I have checked so far (lurking) I find it unlikely that a godfather is among them, especially with Bromancipate on the board. I have strong town reads on sl0osh and Adam, and apparently Adam has been saved tonight, (still waiting on confirmation). This leaves our remaining mafia as Bromancipate and Chocolate.
Genius my friend! :D well that settles it for me ##Vote: Bromancipate (never really liked the hydra anyway)
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On February 03 2012 12:02 dreamflower wrote:
Edit: Woo, I'm a zealot! And it only took me three years to get it. -_- LOL congrats, im 5 posts away
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I was shot last night, as I was expecting.
Grats on the zealot dreamflower =)
I had DoYouHas figured out as the cop very early on, but I knew he didnt check Simberto on night 2, since he posted his reads at 11:59, before a cop check would have come back. Hence why I took such offence to Chocolate pointing it out (albeit with flawed reasoning)
Well, we cant count out the possibility of a GF, one of your innocent checks may infact be him. They have no roleblocker, so 4 goons vs a Cop, Medic and 1-shot vig sounds a bit unfair, giving heavy weight to a GF being present.
Sloosh, did you protect n2? i thought for sure if we had a medic, he would have protted MG after claiming vig. Either way, boss saves bro.
Whos taking the first swing today?
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On February 03 2012 13:04 Adam4167 wrote: I was shot last night, as I was expecting.
Grats on the zealot dreamflower =)
I had DoYouHas figured out as the cop very early on, but I knew he didnt check Simberto on night 2, since he posted his reads at 11:59, before a cop check would have come back. Hence why I took such offence to Chocolate pointing it out (albeit with flawed reasoning)
Well, we cant count out the possibility of a GF, one of your innocent checks may infact be him. They have no roleblocker, so 4 goons vs a Cop, Medic and 1-shot vig sounds a bit unfair, giving heavy weight to a GF being present.
Sloosh, did you protect n2? i thought for sure if we had a medic, he would have protted MG after claiming vig. Either way, boss saves bro.
Whos taking the first swing today?
if there was a GF I dont see how he could get two mafia goons, unless one is a miller which I doubt we have but no one can know that for 100%
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On February 03 2012 13:07 CosmosXAM wrote: if there was a GF I dont see how he could get two mafia goons, unless one is a miller which I doubt we have but no one can know that for 100% I dont quite follow what you are trying to say here... DoYouHas has 3 green checks, one of which may be faulty... what does any of that have to do with millers?
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The Mafia have GG'ed, resulting in a town victory! Congratulations to the town!
A role list and action list will be posted soon.
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Well done everyone, sorry for getting you killed Simberto. Huzzah!
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Role List
Townies SacredSystem FakePromise CosmosXAM TheFearedBeing/Adam4176 Simberto zelblade
Town Roles slOosh - Medic DoYouHas - Detective MidnightGladius - Vigilante
Mafia Chocolate - Goon zarepath - Goon Bromancipate - Goon balt11t - Goon
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Jackpot.
So I joined the game, tunneled a townie and defended a mafia. Oh well, atleast I established my innocence
I sent a PM to incognito near the end of day 2 saying "im getting the feeling like im tunneling a newish-townie... how can I get off this and save face". No hard feelings Sacred, I knew you were town pretty soon after I posted my case.
GG guys
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Actions List
Day 1 FakePromise is lynched
Night 1 Mafia shoots DoYouHas slOosh protects DoYouHas DoYouHas checks CosmosXAM No one dies
Day 2 zarepath is lynched
Night 2 Mafia shoots MidnightGladius MidnightGladius shoots balt11t slOosh protects DoYouHas DoYouHas checks SacredSystem MidnightGladius and balt11t die
Day 3 Simberto is lynched
Night 3 Mafia shoots Adam4167 slOosh protects Adam4167 DoYouHas checks zelblade No one dies Mafia concedes, town victory!
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Yeah, it was a decent enough game. I wish I ACTUALLY had more time to devote to it. I legitmiately have class M-F right now, and I [stupidly] signed up for a class called Play Production where we...you guessed it...produce a play. -.-. I was elected "Stage Manager" (still don't know what i'm doing) and have been working my ass off ever since.
Apologies to the mafia players/Prob for being inactive and sucking early on. There were points in the game that Adam called out on me for not pressing a lot, but the reason I gave why was actually a legitimate reason. I think I would have played pretty similarly to town in this game as well, just due to time constraints.
Thank you a lot for Dream/Qatol for hosting this game. Thanks for hosting, lady and gent.
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Good game, everyone! That was a lot of fun, and I look forward to playing more games here in the future
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I think as a scum team we really shot ourselves in foot in the early game. Nobody wanted to take the spotlight which meant we were at the back of the lynch wagon for two days in a row. The fact that we missed two night kills and a succesful Vigilante shot screwed us over as well.
I had a hard time trying to gain control because of schedule and so had to come out guns firing when I had the time. I didn't enjoy playing as scum, it is really hard to try and hide your motivations for posting. Given how busy the two of us were over that past week I don't think we did too badly.
Thanks Qatol and dreamflower for a fun game.
MG you're a baller shot mate
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Oh ho ho!
Big thank you to dreamflower, Qatol, making this happen and Incognito for great coaching. First mafia game and I roll medic :p
Lol 1st day save was semi-fluke. I couldn't save myself so I picked the next towniest guy I saw. 2nd day, torn between MG and DYH. I knew a vigi shot would go through regardless so I was biased in saving DYH. 3rd day was Adam as I toyed with the idea that Bromancipate would cast doubt on DoYouHas (with fail simberto lynch).
Thank you all for a great game
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so remember when i said that we needed to wait for the mafia
and then i voted a few hours later, its becuase i thought that the day ended that night at 10, then a few minutes after my post i realized my error.
just stating that, ppl used that against me quite hard
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BTW I still don't agree with your policy of two townspeople
Can you explain what you where trying to achieve in a simple manner. I am still really confused.
You did well, especially for your first game. Being upfront and proactive as a blue makes it hard for mafia to know who is doing what. The core of Adam, Sloosh, DYH and Simberto made it hard for us to actively move you guys around. The Simberto lynch was a stroke of luck. Especially that he had the correct team pegged in his last post.
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On February 03 2012 14:31 SacredSystem wrote: so remember when i said that we needed to wait for the mafia
and then i voted a few hours later, its becuase i thought that the day ended that night at 10, then a few minutes after my post i realized my error.
just stating that, ppl used that against me quite hard
Sorry dude, I had to go hard after someone. You got the short straw. I admit that the SacredScum was a bit much but I was having fun.
No hard feelings I hope.
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I find it amusing that my fear of a godfather in the game had me picking less active people for my investigations all game. Then it turns out there was never one in the first place -_-.
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I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><;
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ㅈㅈ everyone, that was definitely an experience i wont soon forget
also thank you so much DreamFlower and Qatol
by any chance do you two think you could make it down to the LAN on the 18 and try and set up another live mafia?
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On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><;
That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way.
Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town.
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Any suggestions for playing as mafia next time? I found it much harder than town and I still don't know what I should have done differently.
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On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town.
I knew you were mafia as soon as you said you didn't like PBPA's and confirmation bias
>_>
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So... most of the obs thread wanted to hang me for being mafia..
and most of the mafia wanted to shoot me for sinking my teeth into chocolate and not letting go.
Yep, gunna make a tonne of friends around here
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On February 03 2012 14:47 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town. I knew you were mafia as soon as you said you didn't like PBPA's and confirmation bias >_>
Yeah I read that. To be honest I really did try and avoid them. You will note that my first case had only two quotes in it. I just cant help myself. It is the way I work through people's posts so that is why I post that way. Maybe next game I will limit myself to only five lines per post or something.
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On February 03 2012 14:49 Adam4167 wrote:So... most of the obs thread wanted to hang me for being mafia.. and most of the mafia wanted to shoot me for sinking my teeth into chocolate and not letting go. Yep, gunna make a tonne of friends around here
One of us was right
You play really well as town and I wanted to kill you as soon as you started. Your posts are relatively short but you get to the point and change your reads when relevant information comes to light. The worst thing thought is that you notice stuff that others don't. I knew I wouldn't be able to get you lynched so we had to shoot.
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On February 03 2012 14:51 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 14:47 gonzaw wrote:On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town. I knew you were mafia as soon as you said you didn't like PBPA's and confirmation bias >_> Yeah I read that. To be honest I really did try and avoid them. You will note that my first case had only two quotes in it. I just cant help myself. It is the way I work through people's posts so that is why I post that way. Maybe next game I will limit myself to only five lines per post or something.
Well yeah, I know you do make PBPAs and shit, exactly why you saying "I don't like PBPAs" made it very suspicious. Also you made a PBPA in the same post later against SS I think, which made me think you just said that to gain town cred and nothing else.
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On February 03 2012 14:39 SacredSystem wrote: ㅈㅈ everyone, that was definitely an experience i wont soon forget
also thank you so much DreamFlower and Qatol
by any chance do you two think you could make it down to the LAN on the 18 and try and set up another live mafia? We were talking with d3 about putting together an event dedicated only to mafia. That would probably be a bit more fun than just 1 game anyways.
I'll talk to someone like Toren in the next few days and see if he can help organize.
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On February 03 2012 14:54 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 14:51 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:47 gonzaw wrote:On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town. I knew you were mafia as soon as you said you didn't like PBPA's and confirmation bias >_> Yeah I read that. To be honest I really did try and avoid them. You will note that my first case had only two quotes in it. I just cant help myself. It is the way I work through people's posts so that is why I post that way. Maybe next game I will limit myself to only five lines per post or something. Well yeah, I know you do make PBPAs and shit, exactly why you saying "I don't like PBPAs" made it very suspicious. Also you made a PBPA in the same post later against SS I think, which made me think you just said that to gain town cred and nothing else.
Well that is funny because I said it when I signed up for the game as well. It is something that I know makes people not read what I write and that is why I am trying to avoid it. Not sure how to go about fixing that.
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On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town.
I think it is because you can push a case on pretty much all of them that I was so wary. I have no idea of an example as this is my first and only forum mafia game, and I think I got the idea as soon as Adam posted that paint picture.
Wrong read on Zelblade and by chance I guess I suspected you hard.
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So I clearly tunneled Simberto. I wasn't actively posting as much as I should have been. But in general I think I played this game decently. Advice?
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On February 03 2012 15:02 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 14:54 gonzaw wrote:On February 03 2012 14:51 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:47 gonzaw wrote:On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town. I knew you were mafia as soon as you said you didn't like PBPA's and confirmation bias >_> Yeah I read that. To be honest I really did try and avoid them. You will note that my first case had only two quotes in it. I just cant help myself. It is the way I work through people's posts so that is why I post that way. Maybe next game I will limit myself to only five lines per post or something. Well yeah, I know you do make PBPAs and shit, exactly why you saying "I don't like PBPAs" made it very suspicious. Also you made a PBPA in the same post later against SS I think, which made me think you just said that to gain town cred and nothing else. Well that is funny because I said it when I signed up for the game as well. It is something that I know makes people not read what I write and that is why I am trying to avoid it. Not sure how to go about fixing that.
So that PBPA you made afterwards was unintentional?
Well, I guess I was lucky to think that made you scummy lol
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On February 03 2012 15:05 DoYouHas wrote: So I clearly tunneled Simberto. I wasn't actively posting as much as I should have been. But in general I think I played this game decently. Advice?
You were shot night 1 for a reason. You play well, your choice of investigation targets turned out perfectly. The combination of you as DT and Sloosh as Med sunk us. Unfortunately as I was mafia I knew you were town and I knew I couldn't get you lynched after your claim so I was looking elsewhere. That was why I didn't notice your posts, I wasn't looking for them
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On February 03 2012 15:10 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 15:02 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:54 gonzaw wrote:On February 03 2012 14:51 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:47 gonzaw wrote:On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town. I knew you were mafia as soon as you said you didn't like PBPA's and confirmation bias >_> Yeah I read that. To be honest I really did try and avoid them. You will note that my first case had only two quotes in it. I just cant help myself. It is the way I work through people's posts so that is why I post that way. Maybe next game I will limit myself to only five lines per post or something. Well yeah, I know you do make PBPAs and shit, exactly why you saying "I don't like PBPAs" made it very suspicious. Also you made a PBPA in the same post later against SS I think, which made me think you just said that to gain town cred and nothing else. Well that is funny because I said it when I signed up for the game as well. It is something that I know makes people not read what I write and that is why I am trying to avoid it. Not sure how to go about fixing that. So that PBPA you made afterwards was unintentional? Well, I guess I was lucky to think that made you scummy lol
Yup. I really wanted to stop doing it but it is harder to change than I thought. I decided that it was better to just post how I felt most comfortable. I'm not sure how to get around this. Any ideas?
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I'm glad that two of my reads were accurate, though I really missed the boat on zarepath at first, and I never really looked hard at Chocolate. It was kind of nice to be pretty sure about balt11t, and then bow out. My endgame tends to be a bit rough around the edges
Looking through the mafia QT, I'm kind of surprised that you guys didn't push me harder early on. It seemed like you were all ready to do it, but I suppose you were okay with letting FakePromise die. I'm not sure how I would have responded under actual pressure :D
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Oh yes, that paint picture
I had Chocolate already locked down at that point, I wasnt sure if it was zelblade or Bromance as the 4th mafia, so i just left him out. I was hoping i could sway people away from both Sacred and Simberto with that, but alas, it just ended up making everyone dogpile on him >.>
I was dreading day 4, I was going to have to defend SacredSystem, and boy wouldnt that have been interesting, considering my day 2 play. The whole game I had this nagging thought in the back of my mind that you were scum Bromance, and the only thing I could highlight in a case is that I KNEW FakePromise was going to flip green, before i even subbed in, and if i knew it, both you and Jitsu knew it as well... yet you piled on him anyway. Hence why i was continually jabbing away at both of you, with the comments about not following up MG, or 'lists are scummy bro'.
I cant believe i didnt get more support with lynching chocolate though. He admitted to soft defending zarepath, he was chainsaw defended by zarepath, never posted more then a single line per read. I was facepalming pretty bad on day 3 after simberto was hanged lol, then everyone went back to zelblade, i almost wanted to cry!
Still, thorougly enjoyable game, Im glad i got to sub in, it was an interesting experience, i felt like a bit of an outsider on N1, and I didnt help my case by being stubborn towards sloosh and refusing to post my reads.
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On February 03 2012 15:13 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 15:10 gonzaw wrote:On February 03 2012 15:02 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:54 gonzaw wrote:On February 03 2012 14:51 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:47 gonzaw wrote:On February 03 2012 14:42 Probulous wrote:On February 03 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: I guess its like, there are four people who are suspicious. And at least two must be town, so there will undoubtably be some town players who are questionable. So I didn't like the idea of picking off people one by one, as it would be too easy for us to be swayed onto the town guys.
I think I may have made that up to have people start looking at you more as you were my prime suspect along with zelblade. Honestly thought Sacred was newbie detective trying to scrounge up info to lynch Zelblade ><; That is what I thought but I stand by my reasoning that eventually you have to choose someone. You can narrow the pool as much as you want but ultimately it will be only one. There were others that were questionable. I could have pushed a case (bad ones) on pretty much everybody. When I'm town I work in a similar way. Can you give me an example of where this worked perfectly? Cause you still had me and zelblade linked when we weren't. I would have defended him if I was in the same position as town. I knew you were mafia as soon as you said you didn't like PBPA's and confirmation bias >_> Yeah I read that. To be honest I really did try and avoid them. You will note that my first case had only two quotes in it. I just cant help myself. It is the way I work through people's posts so that is why I post that way. Maybe next game I will limit myself to only five lines per post or something. Well yeah, I know you do make PBPAs and shit, exactly why you saying "I don't like PBPAs" made it very suspicious. Also you made a PBPA in the same post later against SS I think, which made me think you just said that to gain town cred and nothing else. Well that is funny because I said it when I signed up for the game as well. It is something that I know makes people not read what I write and that is why I am trying to avoid it. Not sure how to go about fixing that. So that PBPA you made afterwards was unintentional? Well, I guess I was lucky to think that made you scummy lol Yup. I really wanted to stop doing it but it is harder to change than I thought. I decided that it was better to just post how I felt most comfortable. I'm not sure how to get around this. Any ideas?
Ehmm, well, now that you were scum I didn't see any reason for you to "stop doing it". Nobody in the thread actually called you on it (I think), so it was very effective of you.
If you are asking what you should do when you are Town instead, well, the only thing I can tell you is to just ignore most of that stuff you analyse on PBPAs.
Like, ignore all the discussions about NL or RL or whatever, ignore specific sentences they say and whether they sound scummy or not. Look at the overall attitutde and behaviour of players.
Also, just for instance as soon as I saw this was a "Newbie Game", I completely ignored every single apologize any player could have done, since hey, this is a newbie game played by newbies. Partly the reason I didn't think zelblade was scum
Then, hell I dunno. I had figured out some stuff about Chocolate's play (I was sure he was scum since the beginning), but I forgot :p
On February 03 2012 15:11 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 03 2012 15:05 DoYouHas wrote: So I clearly tunneled Simberto. I wasn't actively posting as much as I should have been. But in general I think I played this game decently. Advice? You were shot night 1 for a reason. You play well, your choice of investigation targets turned out perfectly. The combination of you as DT and Sloosh as Med sunk us. Unfortunately as I was mafia I knew you were town and I knew I couldn't get you lynched after your claim so I was looking elsewhere. That was why I didn't notice your posts, I wasn't looking for them
To be honest, he did get 3 TOWN CHECKS, and not a single scum check >_>
However, his DT play coupled with slooshes Medic play synced perfectly.
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e: nevermind, took another look at the setup
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slOosh awesome medic heals :D
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Blazinghand
United States25545 Posts
I must say the choices made by the blue players this game contributed quite well to a devastating town win.
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Nice we won :D
Sorry for playing so badly. Apparently it isn't a gpod idea to play forum mafia in the middle of the school term when I have exams near =/
And lol @ I and ss tunneling each other all day. Any tips on how I could get better? That was pretty fun even tho I sucked and would love to play again when I have more free time.
Thanks to dreamflower and qatol for hosting, and everyone else for the great game :D
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Yeah, its a big time commitment, best done when youre on holidays.
Make sure you reread the entire thread after each person is flipped each day and night, factoring in their now-revealed alignment. . Always question what someones motive is, why are they doing something.
Same advice that was passed to me after my first game, get more aggressive, youll get what your looking for a lot faster. Either youll figure out theyre town, like i did with SS, or youll figure out theyre mafia, like with Chocolate.
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I see Probulous was heavily active in the scumQT at the start, so my preferred day 1 lynch wasn't completely groundless
I'm guessing that the Cosmos green read influenced DoYouHas's choice to go for Zarepath on day 2.
Note that town ended night 1 with three blues in the top four night kill targets, and therefore got very lucky with the night actions. The fault is with the vanilla townies for not contributing more. As a vanilla, it's your duty to be townier than anyone else, particularly in a setup where blues are so important. Try to be open, transparent and without fear. In the long run, a wrong accusation is a lot better than no accusation at all.
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At class, but when I get home, I will post a more in depth feeling on reads/ect.
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i ended up reading most of the posts during class, i didnt think it would be this bussy but i was still able to read everything
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On February 03 2012 21:28 Adam4167 wrote: Yeah, its a big time commitment, best done when youre on holidays.
Make sure you reread the entire thread after each person is flipped each day and night, factoring in their now-revealed alignment. . Always question what someones motive is, why are they doing something.
Same advice that was passed to me after my first game, get more aggressive, youll get what your looking for a lot faster. Either youll figure out theyre town, like i did with SS, or youll figure out theyre mafia, like with Chocolate.
Thanks for the advice
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Wow guys you played really well. Sloosh definitely mvp, I wish we had gone after you night 1 but we thought you would be healed.
I definitely sucked, I was afraid to post analysis because I was certain I would make a scumslip and I didn't know exactly what to look for.
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GG guys, I played pretty bad but it was really fun and glad we won :D
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On February 04 2012 06:07 Chocolate wrote: Wow guys you played really well. Sloosh definitely mvp, I wish we had gone after you night 1 but we thought you would be healed.
I definitely sucked, I was afraid to post analysis because I was certain I would make a scumslip and I didn't know exactly what to look for. The trick there is to post your analysis in your scum QT and let your scumbuddies take a look at it before you post it in the thread. When you're mafia, you need to think of your teammates as more of a resource. Your advantage is that you can communicate, so it's important that you do that as much as possible. I liked that your team was carefully discussing defenses and hits, but I was a little disappointed that you weren't checking each others' posts before you made them, especially in the early game. I think doing that would have allowed your members to gain a lot more thread presence, which would have made the loss of zarepath (who represented most of your thread presence) a lot easier to handle. Also, it might have kept zarepath from getting lynched at all.
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On February 04 2012 06:31 Qatol wrote: Also, it might have kept zarepath from getting lynched at all. There was some delicious irony here:
1. Zarepath defended FakePromise using the argument that if he was scum, his buddies would have helped him more. 2. Zarepath's scumbuddies would surely have modified that FakePromise defence post if they'd seen it beforehand.
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On February 04 2012 06:07 Chocolate wrote: Wow guys you played really well. Sloosh definitely mvp, I wish we had gone after you night 1 but we thought you would be healed.
I definitely sucked, I was afraid to post analysis because I was certain I would make a scumslip and I didn't know exactly what to look for. Ahaha, I looked at both mafia and obs QTs and it seems that most of my reads were lucky / illogical / confirmation bias (Zarepath, zelblade, Simberto).
I was worried that I might be killed, and since I couldn't heal myself, I tried to act as fearless as possible, hoping to give off a veteran vibe and not get shot. I guess it worked out in a different way than I intended .
I think you could have posted stuff on zelblade or cosmos or simberto or anyone. For instance, I posted a lot of stuff (most of it would turn out wrong) but it is more suspicious to not even try to contribute, which is why I think Adam read you as mafia.
That's my guess anyways. If SacredSystem stopped tunneling Zelblade (leading me to think he was detective and kicking my confirmation bias into overdrive) I would have gone for you with this reasoning.
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What tipped me over the edge with you Chocolate was when I said "and Bromance or Chocolate as the last scum", you questioned why, I said "general inactivity", then instead of trying to quell my suspicion, you went missing for another 12 hours.
From there i figured pretty quickly that you were indeed mafia, and even further that you were worried that anything you posted was going to be heavily scrutenized. Next time just come out firing, tunnel the crap out of someone.
Take a look at EchelonTee in Wiggles Mini Mafia, he was correctly identified as scum on day 2, in response he chose a target (GiygaS), and just dug right into him. The town convinced themselves that no scum would be so brazen to just hammer into someone like that, that they cleared him and went on to myslynch GiygaS and lose the game.
Still dont see what all of you saw in zarepath to be 100% sure he was scum O.o, I mean he did some scummy things sure, but some of the stuff he was doing flew right in the face of conventional scum play. None of the cases really highlighted why he was so scummy that he needed to die day 2. Hats off to you zarepath, you might have been the first scum dead, but you had me fooled =)
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I actually had to go to bed haha.
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Well thanks guys for the advice. Next scum game I will make sure that we read the posts of everyone before that get posted. Any other suggestions. I am fairly certain that after zarepath was lynched there was not much we could do. Chocolate and balt where already targeted which left myself and since we had voted late that made us look really bad.
Any ideas on how to pull that around or is it simply too late? I mean as Jitsu said in our QT by the end of day 1 you could step back and see who was scum pretty clearly. From there on in it was an uphill struggle. I guess the vig shot and town saves really finished us off. I just want to improve for next game and the take home lessons I have so far are
Team Check posts before posting Be more proactive day 1/2 so you don't end up with everyone on the end of the wagon.
Anything else?
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For most of day one I was wary of zarepath because of his activity without saying much. It was what happened after he defended himself against sl0osh that tipped it for me. There was the "I've done nothing but" statement that rang very false to me. And then the 2 posts bantering with fakepromise right before the lynch just screamed "whew, safe, everything is going to plan" at me. After that I just tore through his filter for any scummy bits to try and build a larger case.
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You have the additional burden of expectation. Ive seen what you can do, so you're going to be held to your meta. I expect big, solid cases, with PICTURES! (haha ok not really)
If I see you on obvious mislyches like FakePromise, i start to worry.
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le sigh, so yeah day 1 killed us. That was partly why I pushed sloosh to stop the zelblade lynch. I was trying to show that my bad play on day 1/2 was due to me not being around. Too late I guess.
Respect bro, I fear you when I'm scum
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solid game to read through; example of scum not having enough thread presence to win in the later stages.
Probulous, you were so good in your first game (thread presence, logic), that seeing your utter lack of effort here was obvious, if meta comes into play. Having good town play is obviously good, maybe even preferrable, but then you'll need to develop some sort of scum game that doesn't so heavily contradict :p
Clutch medic save was huge deciding point.
Adam, still hard to read. I thought you were being clever scum for a while.
Chocolate, a good way to avoid suspicion, strangely enough, is to be brazen with your reads. State your opinions strongly, even if wrong, and people will notice that you're not afraid. In TL Mafia L I was laughably wrong on my reads, but my committment to my fail reads meant people didn't think I was trying to manipulate the game.
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Thanks ET. Maybe I should play a less active role as town so my scum doesn't look so bad. What sucks is that I wanted to participate but couldn't due to time constraints. I think my later play was better and perhaps if I had started like I ended I would have done better.
In essence, I need to metagame myself
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Blazinghand
United States25545 Posts
I think it's possible to play an active scum role. I wouldn't ever curtail my town play in some attempt to make my scum meta opaque. Rather, trying to hide in plain sight as Mafia should be what I try to do.
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Well, I had a ton of fun for my first game. Hoping to get into another game soon, but I definitely think I need another newbie game. Will another one be hosted in the near future?
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These newbie games spring up fairly often. On top of that any mini game will generally have 3-4 1-2 gamers in them so they tend to be very forgiving. Take GM's Normal Mini that just started 2 days ago, 4-5 first timers, a couple of 2-3 timers as well.
Id echo Blazinghands comments as well, just do what you normally as town, when youre scum. Id like to think my scum play looks quite similar to my town play, (as evidence by ET and half the obs thread wanting to hang me ). Thats probably the best way to tackle it. Having a large contrast between your town and scum play just makes you succeptable to meta cases which leads to stupid mislynches.
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On February 04 2012 10:10 Probulous wrote: Well thanks guys for the advice. Next scum game I will make sure that we read the posts of everyone before that get posted. Any other suggestions. I am fairly certain that after zarepath was lynched there was not much we could do. Chocolate and balt where already targeted which left myself and since we had voted late that made us look really bad.
Any ideas on how to pull that around or is it simply too late? I mean as Jitsu said in our QT by the end of day 1 you could step back and see who was scum pretty clearly. From there on in it was an uphill struggle. I guess the vig shot and town saves really finished us off. I just want to improve for next game and the take home lessons I have so far are
Team Check posts before posting Be more proactive day 1/2 so you don't end up with everyone on the end of the wagon.
Anything else? I wouldn't necessarily read every post because you don't want the posts to take too long to write (thus taking your team out of the thread, especially early). But definitely the important ones should be reviewed. It's a balancing act in the end.
Once you're in that position, you need to get a stronger hold on the thread. That means shooting people who are controlling the thread and posting a lot more actively. Your team wasn't actually dead until you shot adam. A shot on DoYouHas night 3 and this game is still quite winnable (though some of that is luck because you psyched yourselves out of the DT read because of his tunnel on day 3).
Also, you had solid comments in the QT on day 1 in particular, but dreamflower and I couldn't figure out why you weren't posting more. It seemed like you were too focused on telling your scumbuddies to post stuff and you kinda forgot to post some stuff yourself. Just compare your activity levels in the QT vs. in the thread to see what I mean.
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On February 04 2012 12:57 DoYouHas wrote: Well, I had a ton of fun for my first game. Hoping to get into another game soon, but I definitely think I need another newbie game. Will another one be hosted in the near future?
A lot of the minis end up chock full of newbs, you wouldnt be out of place in any of them. I'm only in my 3rd game atm, and it's full o da nubs
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On February 04 2012 15:09 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2012 10:10 Probulous wrote: Well thanks guys for the advice. Next scum game I will make sure that we read the posts of everyone before that get posted. Any other suggestions. I am fairly certain that after zarepath was lynched there was not much we could do. Chocolate and balt where already targeted which left myself and since we had voted late that made us look really bad.
Any ideas on how to pull that around or is it simply too late? I mean as Jitsu said in our QT by the end of day 1 you could step back and see who was scum pretty clearly. From there on in it was an uphill struggle. I guess the vig shot and town saves really finished us off. I just want to improve for next game and the take home lessons I have so far are
Team Check posts before posting Be more proactive day 1/2 so you don't end up with everyone on the end of the wagon.
Anything else? I wouldn't necessarily read every post because you don't want the posts to take too long to write (thus taking your team out of the thread, especially early). But definitely the important ones should be reviewed. It's a balancing act in the end. Once you're in that position, you need to get a stronger hold on the thread. That means shooting people who are controlling the thread and posting a lot more actively. Your team wasn't actually dead until you shot adam. A shot on DoYouHas night 3 and this game is still quite winnable (though some of that is luck because you psyched yourselves out of the DT read because of his tunnel on day 3). Also, you had solid comments in the QT on day 1 in particular, but dreamflower and I couldn't figure out why you weren't posting more. It seemed like you were too focused on telling your scumbuddies to post stuff and you kinda forgot to post some stuff yourself. Just compare your activity levels in the QT vs. in the thread to see what I mean.
Thanks Qatol. Will remember for next time. Thanks again for a great game.
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Oh I forgot to mention this, but if anyone else would like some feedback from me on how they played or my thoughts on specific decisions/situations, please let me know and I'll see if I can give you a little writeup.
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On Night 2, as I was considering who to shoot, I was suspicious of Bromancipate, but I was more suspicious of balt11t. I hadn't fully considered the interaction between the vigilante ability and mafia roleblocking, but here was my initial plan:
1) Call a shot on balt11t at the beginning of the Night and look at the town's response.
a) If it became obvious from balt11t's response that he was indeed mafia, and that the town was in favor of lynching him regardless, I would switch targets and shoot Bromancipate instead, claiming this in the thread shortly before the Day post.
b) If I was wrong about balt11t, and he claimed a blue role and provided useful information, I would switch my shot to Bromancipate, knowing that I was probably going to be killed by the mafia during the night. The town could sort out the claim afterward.
c) If no particularly useful information came out of the exchange, I would play it safe and not switch targets.
In the end, it was pretty clear that balt11t wouldn't be alive for much longer no matter what happened, but I thought about it a little bit more. On the one hand, if I had been right with both of my reads, it would have essentially wrapped up the game. On the other hand, had I been wrong about either balt11t or Bromancipate, or heaven forbid both, the town would have been thrown into chaos and the endgame would have been much more messy.
As the town was in a pretty strong position following the first medic save and zarepath's lynch, I ultimately decided to play it safe. Of course, it turned out that my reads were right, but I don't want to be a victim of hindsight bias.
What would you have done as a vigilante in that position? Would it have been right to trust my reads and go for the big play, or is it better to just play safely? Alternatively, would I have been better off not calling my shot on balt11t in the first place and either holding onto my shot, or still shooting him and claiming it on the next Day?
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Well given you can die at night without shooting, I would say shoot the first person you are sure is scum? Otherwise you risk wasting your bullet.
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It seems that the game was won mostly through help of blue roles in confirming ppl for late game rather than strong analysis.
People in Obs QT said my case against Zarepath was weak / confirmation bias, and I think besides MidnightGladius' vig shot and Adams hunches on Chocolate, as a town we didn't ever rally around a good analysis case.
Could you help point out posts which tipped off people as mafia? Or is this more an overall feel in which each post adds to the case rather than one solid post upon which you can lynch mafia?
Also, how can you differentiate between timidity due to being new to the game and timidity due to being mafia?
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Hey sl0osh! I think Adam explained why he thought I was mafia (my vote for fake and lack of posting) which was a metagame thing. In my first game I wrote so much and never pushed an easy lynch so that is what made him look, then my actions just confirmed it I guess.
Are you going to join us in Werewolves? You would do really well as you were hard as hell to play against. It would be nice to be on the same side as you
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Uhh oh boy. I would love to but I am overwhelmed by the number of people playing, the brand new types of roles, the added layer of traits and this day/night simultaneous business.
Gah, and I just found out it is a PM game!
It seems like too much for me ><;
Hoping that GMarshal will host another Newbie game after his mini. I am very excited to play and just waiting for appropriate game right now.
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Same here. I don't think I'd be able to keep up with the Werewolves game, especially now that midterm season is right around the corner :S
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Yeah, my case against you/jitsu was entirely meta, which made it shitty by default. There wasn't anything specifically I could point to in your filter and say, yep, ulterior motives going on right here.
We think very very similarly. In Newbie Mafia II, we both identified (incorrectly) the exact same scum team, for the same reasons. Our brains must just be wired the same , so when I see you on what was a painfully obvious (to me at least) mislynch, I was instantly suspicious.
However, every time I put a case together, it basically boiled down to "I really have nothing much else... BUT JUST TRUST ME GUYZ". Something told me that wasn't going to work, so I set out to catch your teammate, drag this game as close to LyLo as I could, and then id only have to influence 1-2 people with my crappy meta case, instead of 5-6.
Now that I've played in 5 games, I qualify to apply for co-hosting, and eventually get my hosting wings. I'm really interested in getting some newbie games rolling, I find them far more interesting (far less ego -__-) and growing this community can only be a good thing. Hopefully that can happen before all of you no longer qualify to play in them!
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He he, it's funny cause when I was reading the first Student game you played and everyone was like, "Adam is scum because he doesn't post", I literally face palmed. Your response was exactly what I would have written. Scary really. Maybe it's an Aussie thing. You not keen on Werewolves?
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So it's going to take me a few days to get back to people. Do you want me posting it here or just PMing? It might be valuable for other people to see too. Just PM me if you don't want me posting it here. Also, this kind of discussion is healthy as long as it doesn't turn into a bragging war. You can learn a lot from the thoughts of each other. I was a little disappointed that you didn't discuss the game more when it ended to be honest.
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Thanks Qatol, I enjoy reading the comments in the thread so please post them in here.
What are your thoughts on bussing as mafia? My biggest issue this game aside from being unavailable more than usual, was how to approach my mafia brethren in the thread. On one hand if I don't push them as hard as others the double standard becomes clear but if I push them too hard they end up getting lynched.
For example Day 1 you can read in the QT that as soon as zarepath made his opening post I knew it would be his downfall. It was a suspicious topic and was presented in a suspicious manner. How do I not avoid placing him at the top of my "scum" list? Jitsu chose Fake because he agreed but logically zarepath should have been target number 1.
The reason I told the boys to post lots was I felt confident in being able to survive for at least the first day and probably day 2 as well. So I wanted them to get as much thread presence as possible. The problem was that most of the team opened up in ways that would normally flag my red radar, how do I not implicate them?
Take Adam's case on me, it was based purely on me voting for Fake on Day 1 and knowing that normally I would not vote for such an obvious miss-lynch. I wasn't here for that vote and probably would have pushed us to vote elsewhere but the problem remains.
When is it appropriate to throw your team mates under the bus?
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I always love feedback, even if it is bashing how horrible I was :D
I don't think anyone is going to come out bragging about this one, we got exceptionally lucky with our blues.
My self-analysis: My early play was pretty average. I joined the game late, stubbornly defied the most town people, tunneled a townie for 24 hours, refused to vote for a scum.
Somehow, through all of that, I managed to get myself confirmed as a townie.
Probably my biggest regret was not opposing the Simberto lynch louder, but my confidence was pretty down after defending Zarepath and tunneling Sacred, so I really wasn't sure of any of my reads, at that point.
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Zarepaths opening post is exactly what threw me. Scum 'generally' like to open discussion with a very neutral topic, like policy lynches. Why would a scum pick something much more abrasive, like randomly electing someone to die, and thrust himself into the spotlight in the process?
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Strangely, it was zarepath's first post that made me think zelblade was mafia. For zarepath to go for a random lynch with a system that was anything but random made me think that they had planned a little exchange between them that would establish them both as contributors without raising too much suspicion.
My biggest regret that whole game was holding back my opinions and waiting to make large, thought out posts. I realized I did it day 1 and thought I was dead because I was clearly acting like a blue (hi5 sl0osh). I really should have just put all my suspicions on the table as I had them. It would have made me look more green than blue and I think it would have kept me from tunneling as much.
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I could see a confident townie doing that and explain themselves by saying it is for generating discussion. Mafia could pretend to be that and it would throw off people's reads.
I've actually been thinking about day 1s in general, and wondered how to get talking started (assuming normal game without mayor elections). For this game it was FakePromise's innocent but misunderstood/exaggerated 30% statement but how would you do that in other games?
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On February 10 2012 13:59 Adam4167 wrote: Zarepaths opening post is exactly what threw me. Scum 'generally' like to open discussion with a very neutral topic, like policy lynches. Why would a scum pick something much more abrasive, like randomly electing someone to die, and thrust himself into the spotlight in the process?
The problem wasn't the topic it was the "random lynching". He was advocating random lynches using a non-random method. In essence his plan was a cover for getting someone lynched that he had chosen. The fact that this was hardly mentioned really struck me when catching up on the thread.
Here is the logic
- You believe the odds are acceptable to randomly lynch
- You select someone at random as this is fair to everyone
- Profit?
Most people had issues with the odds and the lack of information that comes from random lynching but supporting those isn't exactly scummy. It is is just a difference of opinion and probably bad town play. The fact that he suggested "reverse alphabetical" means the process is not random and he was trying to get someone lynched.
Then when he flipped people should have realised that zelblade was zarepath's day 1 target (in his first post no less) and so was highly unlikely to be mafia. I didn't push this because I actually wanted zelblade lynched
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Should blues try to look as green as possible (to deter blue snipes)?
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Generally we just randomly vote someone and gauge the reaction of them and others, or start off by getting everyone's stances on 'lynch all lurkers', 'lynch all liars' ect
It really doesn't take much more then 12 hours for one of the games here to leave the random vote stage, and progress into actual behavioral analysis. The real analysis comes out on N1 or D2, since you also have D1's vote to work with, and possibly some night kills.
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On February 10 2012 14:11 DoYouHas wrote: Strangely, it was zarepath's first post that made me think zelblade was mafia. For zarepath to go for a random lynch with a system that was anything but random made me think that they had planned a little exchange between them that would establish them both as contributors without raising too much suspicion.
My biggest regret that whole game was holding back my opinions and waiting to make large, thought out posts. I realized I did it day 1 and thought I was dead because I was clearly acting like a blue (hi5 sl0osh). I really should have just put all my suspicions on the table as I had them. It would have made me look more green than blue and I think it would have kept me from tunneling as much.
I still to this day have no idea why I kept missing you in my reads It hurt me bad because I should have realised you were not a veteran and that it was making people suspicious of me.
I agree with showing your suspicions in the thread and trying to avoid massive posts. That last bit is my biggest problem, I'm trying to find ways to avoid the wall of text.
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On February 10 2012 14:17 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2012 13:59 Adam4167 wrote: Zarepaths opening post is exactly what threw me. Scum 'generally' like to open discussion with a very neutral topic, like policy lynches. Why would a scum pick something much more abrasive, like randomly electing someone to die, and thrust himself into the spotlight in the process? The problem wasn't the topic it was the "random lynching". He was advocating random lynches using a non-random method. In essence his plan was a cover for getting someone lynched that he had chosen. The fact that this was hardly mentioned really struck me when catching up on the thread. Here is the logic - You believe the odds are acceptable to randomly lynch
- You select someone at random as this is fair to everyone
- Profit?
Most people had issues with the odds and the lack of information that comes from random lynching but supporting those isn't exactly scummy. It is is just a difference of opinion and probably bad town play. The fact that he suggested "reverse alphabetical" means the process is not random and he was trying to get someone lynched. Then when he flipped people should have realised that he was zarepath's day 1 target (in his first post no less) and so was highly unlikely to be mafia. I didn't push this because I actually wanted zelblade lynched
Ohhhh ... I thought it was some intricate bussing that wouldn't go through but set up a good failsafe dynamic of giving the surviving mafias town cred ... Would it be good for me to apply Occam's razor more often?
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Yeah, the blue meta has evolved somewhat here on TL. Originally, blues would look a lot like scum. They'd contribute only as often as required, largely keep their heads down and try to get as many night actions off as possible before death.
Now, the blue meta is to look as pro-town as possible, draw medic protection, and the scum will be forced to leave you alone, else they run into a medic prot. Being loud and aggressive is a great way to display how 'fearless' you are, and obviously you're only this fearless because you've got nothing to lose (ie green), when really you're blue.
Take this game for example. The Scum avoided Sloosh like he had the plague, for fear of having another shot blocked. If they'd just blown him away N1, as they'd discussed in the QT, this game would have gone down a VERY different path.
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On February 10 2012 14:12 slOosh wrote: I could see a confident townie doing that and explain themselves by saying it is for generating discussion. Mafia could pretend to be that and it would throw off people's reads.
I've actually been thinking about day 1s in general, and wondered how to get talking started (assuming normal game without mayor elections). For this game it was FakePromise's innocent but misunderstood/exaggerated 30% statement but how would you do that in other games?
For me Day 1 is all about how you start. I think your first post is probably the only time that setup discussions are alright and only then if they are about specifics to the game. Everyone is going to have to understand how the unique aspects of the setup affect the play so that is normally a safe bet I think. I also think pressuring lurkers to post and keeping on them helps. I don't know, I don't really find starting difficult.
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On February 10 2012 14:18 slOosh wrote: Should blues try to look as green as possible (to deter blue snipes)?
You played one hell of a blue game. Personally I think the harder it is for mafia to work out who is the blue and who is green the better. They have more information so denying them anything is of upmost importance. Hence I play blue roles exactly how I play green roles. The problem is when you are a DT and you check someone red who wasn't your prime target before the night. I had that issue when I checked Sheth in Newbie II. I even straight up admitted that my argument made no sense
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Yeah, I was like 'luuuuul prob is cop'.
Id have dawdled on that information for probably a good 12-24 hours, milled around like I was confused a bit, then launched into an all out attack on sheth.
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On February 10 2012 14:21 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2012 14:17 Probulous wrote:On February 10 2012 13:59 Adam4167 wrote: Zarepaths opening post is exactly what threw me. Scum 'generally' like to open discussion with a very neutral topic, like policy lynches. Why would a scum pick something much more abrasive, like randomly electing someone to die, and thrust himself into the spotlight in the process? The problem wasn't the topic it was the "random lynching". He was advocating random lynches using a non-random method. In essence his plan was a cover for getting someone lynched that he had chosen. The fact that this was hardly mentioned really struck me when catching up on the thread. Here is the logic - You believe the odds are acceptable to randomly lynch
- You select someone at random as this is fair to everyone
- Profit?
Most people had issues with the odds and the lack of information that comes from random lynching but supporting those isn't exactly scummy. It is is just a difference of opinion and probably bad town play. The fact that he suggested "reverse alphabetical" means the process is not random and he was trying to get someone lynched. Then when he flipped people should have realised that he was zarepath's day 1 target (in his first post no less) and so was highly unlikely to be mafia. I didn't push this because I actually wanted zelblade lynched Ohhhh ... I thought it was some intricate bussing that wouldn't go through but set up a good failsafe dynamic of giving the surviving mafias town cred ... Would it be good for me to apply Occam's razor more often?
That would be quite a coup if they had planned and pulled it off properly. I think it might have been too much of a risk, though, especially if the votes do start to come in, and then you're suddenly forced to either back off, or let your partner die. Even if you do, you don't earn credibility by suggesting bad odds and just "randomly" happening to be right.
I raised a hypothesis in the obs QT about a plan where the mafia team defer their first hit in order to have a member claim the hit on the subsequent day as a veteran. In the absence of having a clear blue target, what would be the downsides of such a feint?
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On February 10 2012 14:22 Adam4167 wrote: Yeah, the blue meta has evolved somewhat here on TL. Originally, blues would look a lot like scum. They'd contribute only as often as required, largely keep their heads down and try to get as many night actions off as possible before death.
Now, the blue meta is to look as pro-town as possible, draw medic protection, and the scum will be forced to leave you alone, else they run into a medic prot. Being loud and aggressive is a great way to display how 'fearless' you are, and obviously you're only this fearless because you've got nothing to lose (ie green), when really you're blue.
Take this game for example. The Scum avoided Sloosh like he had the plague, for fear of having another shot blocked. If they'd just blown him away N1, as they'd discussed in the QT, this game would have gone down a VERY different path.
That is exactly why playing a blue like a green is the best play in my mind. It makes you very hard to read as mafia. It isn't so much about drawing a medic save from being brazen, as not giving away clues about being blue/green. You can lurk as a medic aslong as you lurk as town as well. The problem is that lurking is normally not associated with town behaviour because you are not contributing, but if that is how you play vanilla, you should play the same way as blue.
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Well that's always on the cards, but as incognito reaffirmed to me after N1, town cred is fickle.
You can have 1 good thing on your resume (surviving a night hit), but if everything else says scum and/or useless, you're probably dead anyway. I wasn't 100% sold on DoYouHas' innocence until Zarepath flipped, then the idea of blocking a shot, to lead a wagon against a teammate became so convoluted... it had to be false.
The opportunity cost of getting one of your members 'town cred' vs removing a possible blue + a loud townie and by default, giving you more voting power (4/12 instead of 4/13) in this game, is just too good to pass up. Its just really not worth it unless you're trying to get real fancy.
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On February 10 2012 14:30 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2012 14:21 slOosh wrote:On February 10 2012 14:17 Probulous wrote:On February 10 2012 13:59 Adam4167 wrote: Zarepaths opening post is exactly what threw me. Scum 'generally' like to open discussion with a very neutral topic, like policy lynches. Why would a scum pick something much more abrasive, like randomly electing someone to die, and thrust himself into the spotlight in the process? The problem wasn't the topic it was the "random lynching". He was advocating random lynches using a non-random method. In essence his plan was a cover for getting someone lynched that he had chosen. The fact that this was hardly mentioned really struck me when catching up on the thread. Here is the logic - You believe the odds are acceptable to randomly lynch
- You select someone at random as this is fair to everyone
- Profit?
Most people had issues with the odds and the lack of information that comes from random lynching but supporting those isn't exactly scummy. It is is just a difference of opinion and probably bad town play. The fact that he suggested "reverse alphabetical" means the process is not random and he was trying to get someone lynched. Then when he flipped people should have realised that he was zarepath's day 1 target (in his first post no less) and so was highly unlikely to be mafia. I didn't push this because I actually wanted zelblade lynched Ohhhh ... I thought it was some intricate bussing that wouldn't go through but set up a good failsafe dynamic of giving the surviving mafias town cred ... Would it be good for me to apply Occam's razor more often? That would be quite a coup if they had planned and pulled it off properly. I think it might have been too much of a risk, though, especially if the votes do start to come in, and then you're suddenly forced to either back off, or let your partner die. Even if you do, you don't earn credibility by suggesting bad odds and just "randomly" happening to be right. I raised a hypothesis in the obs QT about a plan where the mafia team defer their first hit in order to have a member claim the hit on the subsequent day as a veteran. In the absence of having a clear blue target, what would be the downsides of such a feint?
It's risky in that you are letting town have a night off. You saw what missing two shots did us this game. Yes that person has town cred but in effect you had traded one townie for gaining trust. I guess in small games where mafia only have one kill point this could work.
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The sooner you get to Lylo the better. Its such a dangerous position, because if even ONE townie vote is in the wrong place, boom, game over. Every single townie needs to be on the same page heading into Lylo, otherwise mafia take it. Thus, getting there as fast as possible will give the town as little to work with as possible. This is why mafia almost never advocate a no-lynch, and if they are, its because one of their own is leading the vote count.
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"This is why mafia almost never advocate a no-lynch, and if they are, its because one of their own is leading the vote count."
mmm hadn't thought about that. Thanks will keep that in mind.
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On February 10 2012 14:45 Adam4167 wrote: The sooner you get to Lylo the better. Its such a dangerous position, because if even ONE townie vote is in the wrong place, boom, game over. Every single townie needs to be on the same page heading into Lylo, otherwise mafia take it. Thus, getting there as fast as possible will give the town as little to work with as possible. This is why mafia almost never advocate a no-lynch, and if they are, its because one of their own is leading the vote count.
Would it have been a good idea to no lynch D1 in this game? Or any game?
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No lynch is a perfectly fine move if you get to the end of the day and are not confident in any of your reads, and the whole town feels similarly.
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Personally, I loathe the no-lynch. Probably partly because ive never even been close to getting lynched myself, but also because I love information.
Day 1 is almost universally a mislynch. That means you can be sure that 50-75% of the scum team are on the vote. I am perfectly fine with trading that townie (who obviously did something... not smart) to heavily narrow down the scum suspects.
Id probably never try and force a no-lynch as a townie. It did cross my mind with Simberto, but what would that lead to? The next day, you'd all just want to kill him again, regardless of what he said with his additional 72 hours of life, and you'd also be less likely to listen to me, now that I've stalled the game for 72 hours and cost the town a townie.
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On February 10 2012 14:53 DoYouHas wrote: No lynch is a perfectly fine move if you get to the end of the day and are not confident in any of your reads, and the whole town feels similarly.
I've never been in a situation where people aren't so polarized that they wanted at least one person dead on day one.
Heck, I wanted like 3 people in this game dead the second i stepped into it.
Bromancipate, Balt11t and SacredSystem were all people I would have thrown my vote on without a second thought.
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I have come to realize that it is possible through a number of things like inactivity or general confusion for the town to not know wtf is going on. Especially if you get towards the end of a day and it is clear that someone is about to be mislynched, it is better to derail the train pushing for a better candidate and risk a no lynch than it is to let the townie die. I don't think this applies to day 1 when you really do need as much information as possible to understand people's day1 posts.
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On February 10 2012 15:00 Adam4167 wrote: Day 1 is almost universally a mislynch. That means you can be sure that 50-75% of the scum team are on the vote. I am perfectly fine with trading that townie (who obviously did something... not smart) to heavily narrow down the scum suspects.
How do you look at voting lists? Do you try to match up who shows up on mislynches vs mafia lynches, or is it just a jumping point to have some suspects to analyze?
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For example, if you had stepped up to bat for Simberto, and others had rallied, there was a very good chance I would have backed off. I was already worried when I couldn't pick apart his defense as readily as I wanted. At that point I was too far in to pull myself out, but I could have been convinced.
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On February 10 2012 15:10 DoYouHas wrote: For example, if you had stepped up to bat for Simberto, and others had rallied, there was a very good chance I would have backed off. I was already worried when I couldn't pick apart his defense as readily as I wanted. At that point I was too far in to pull myself out, but I could have been convinced.
I think that there is why he didn't do it. I was confirmation biased in following you since I knew you were town, SS and zelblade were tunneling each other which only leaves Cosmos who didn't have much presence. The best way to quell the suspicion was to let him flip town, allowing us to look at other suspects instead of being distracted and distrustful.
I know approaching the night I just wanted him to get lynched as I was so curious to know, regardless of if he was town or not because by then the thread was a huge convoluted mess and I wanted the easy way out (kill the source).
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Lots of people focus on the position someone joined a vote wagon. Personally I think that's a waste of time, since as scum I'm just as likely to be #1 on the vote as i am to be #8.
I like to group people. I think I made that obvious with my paint skills. Ill see 8 people on a lynch. Generally I can instantly knock out 2 or 3 because one of them is me, 2 of them are posting so pro-town that they just wouldn't be mafia. From there I have 5 names, with the assumption that either 2-3 of them are scum. Then I look at how those 5 interact with each other. Who's ignoring each other too much? new mafia especially are very hesitant to even quote one of their partners writing, even if there's nothing scummy about it.
Take Zarepath for example. Hes quoted every single person in the entire game... except 4 people. One of them is me, since I joined late, and the other 3? yep... red. This really should have tipped me off earlier, but I was so focused on sacred.
Balt really doesn't have much of a filter to go through at all.
Chocolate - again same as zarepath. Not a single quote of the other scum, just everyone else.
Finally Bromancipate - quotes everyone in the entire game multiple times... except 3 people.
Do a quick scroll-through of their filters yourself. Its disgustingly accurate. We could have nailed the entire scum team on D2.
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On February 10 2012 15:24 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2012 15:10 DoYouHas wrote: For example, if you had stepped up to bat for Simberto, and others had rallied, there was a very good chance I would have backed off. I was already worried when I couldn't pick apart his defense as readily as I wanted. At that point I was too far in to pull myself out, but I could have been convinced. I think that there is why he didn't do it. I was confirmation biased in following you since I knew you were town, SS and zelblade were tunneling each other which only leaves Cosmos who didn't have much presence. The best way to quell the suspicion was to let him flip town, allowing us to look at other suspects instead of being distracted and distrustful. I know approaching the night I just wanted him to get lynched as I was so curious to know, regardless of if he was town or not because by then the thread was a huge convoluted mess and I wanted the easy way out (kill the source).
Bingo. You got it. There was no cavalry coming to stop that mess. It would have been D2 all over again. The entire town wants someone dead, me standing there saying "Really?" and getting ignored haha
The fastest option was to let him die (sorry!), and get everyone refocused.
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That is interesting, I was focusing on mentions, but paying attention to quotes is something I didn't consider.
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Its entirely subconscious. They don't want their scummy partners work read any more then it has to be, so quoting it would submit it to re-evaluation.
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On February 10 2012 15:25 Adam4167 wrote: Lots of people focus on the position someone joined a vote wagon. Personally I think that's a waste of time, since as scum I'm just as likely to be #1 on the vote as i am to be #8.
I like to group people. I think I made that obvious with my paint skills. Ill see 8 people on a lynch. Generally I can instantly knock out 2 or 3 because one of them is me, 2 of them are posting so pro-town that they just wouldn't be mafia. From there I have 5 names, with the assumption that either 2-3 of them are scum. Then I look at how those 5 interact with each other. Who's ignoring each other too much? new mafia especially are very hesitant to even quote one of their partners writing, even if there's nothing scummy about it.
Take Zarepath for example. Hes quoted every single person in the entire game... except 4 people. One of them is me, since I joined late, and the other 3? yep... red. This really should have tipped me off earlier, but I was so focused on sacred.
Balt really doesn't have much of a filter to go through at all.
Chocolate - again same as zarepath. Not a single quote of the other scum, just everyone else.
Finally Bromancipate - quotes everyone in the entire game multiple times... except 3 people.
Do a quick scroll-through of their filters yourself. Its disgustingly accurate. We could have nailed the entire scum team on D2.
That's hilarious! Mmm something else to remember. You're a genuine font of information Adam
I wonder how much lurking affects this though. I mean day 1 balt and chocolate said bugger all so what is there to quote? Then zarepath dies and balt gets shot. I mean that could easily be lurker townie. Plus I tend to tunnel those I think are scum so it is unlikely that I will quote everybody. Will keep it in mind though, could be a useful tool
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On February 10 2012 15:27 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2012 15:24 slOosh wrote:On February 10 2012 15:10 DoYouHas wrote: For example, if you had stepped up to bat for Simberto, and others had rallied, there was a very good chance I would have backed off. I was already worried when I couldn't pick apart his defense as readily as I wanted. At that point I was too far in to pull myself out, but I could have been convinced. I think that there is why he didn't do it. I was confirmation biased in following you since I knew you were town, SS and zelblade were tunneling each other which only leaves Cosmos who didn't have much presence. The best way to quell the suspicion was to let him flip town, allowing us to look at other suspects instead of being distracted and distrustful. I know approaching the night I just wanted him to get lynched as I was so curious to know, regardless of if he was town or not because by then the thread was a huge convoluted mess and I wanted the easy way out (kill the source). Bingo. You got it. There was no cavalry coming to stop that mess. It would have been D2 all over again. The entire town wants someone dead, me standing there saying "Really?" and getting ignored haha The fastest option was to let him die (sorry!), and get everyone refocused.
The problem with this is when Day 3 becomes a clusterfuck and you have the same problem but with one less town. I mean you guys were intent on killing zelblade and if I hadn't said anything he could have been lynched too. I understand the advantage of getting rid if the confusion but if you think it through, you are confused for a reason. If you genuinely thought he was scum you wouldn't be confused. Better to have a no-lynch and use the extra time to work that out. More time means more posting and hence more information. Especially when you look at who was pushing for a no-lynch/miss-lynch etc.
For me any townie dead is a step towards a loss. If you feel there is a better target for the lynch you push that target.
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You really only need to do it to one scum whos not lurking. A quick examination of zarepaths filter after he flipped would have given you 4 names: Adam Balt11t Chocolate Bromancipate
Then you overlay that on say my filter, and it doesn't work.
So you do it to the next loudest person - Bromancipate: Balt11t Chocolate Zarepath
You'll narrow it down pretty quickly to 4-5 names and 4 scum in there. Game is solved, maybe one townie has to die for the cause.
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Yeah, I was trying to push chocolate, but everyone seemed pretty dead-set on simberto.
I thought for sure chocolate was a deadman after sloosh posted that great analysis and then BAM, his vote goes on simberto.
O_o doesn't do justice to the look I had on my face at that point.
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Mmm could be useful for general narrowing. Will give it a try. Thanks!
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On February 10 2012 15:53 Adam4167 wrote: Yeah, I was trying to push chocolate, but everyone seemed pretty dead-set on simberto.
I thought for sure chocolate was a deadman after sloosh posted that great analysis and then BAM, his vote goes on simberto.
O_o doesn't do justice to the look I had on my face at that point.
I purposely avoided getting involved in that. I was trying my best to keep chocolate alive just a little longer. I also knew if I said anything about Simberto the comparison would be way too obvious. It is really hard playing as mafia, I don't know how you did it so well in your last game. Maybe I need a coach next time I role scum.
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I doubt it'd work with more seasoned scum, but a handy tool if you happen to lynch a new scum with a big post history.
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On February 10 2012 15:57 Probulous wrote:
I purposely avoided getting involved in that. I was trying my best to keep chocolate alive just a little longer. I also knew if I said anything about Simberto the comparison would be way too obvious. It is really hard playing as mafia, I don't know how you did it so well in your last game. Maybe I need a coach next time I role scum.
Scum is fun for me, I'd say mafia goon would be my favorite role.
I had an amazing team in that game, we were on IRC 12 hours a day, plotting, planning, checking posts.
Plus the town never drew me into the conversation and forced me to take a stance on anything. By the end of day 3, no one had a clue what my reads were, except that id written analysis on 3 dead townies.
That's why I kept dragging you back in where I could.
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Adam4167, that is quite the useful heuristic . I will definitely keep it in mind, especially because the only way to disrupt it is to play to the town's favor and forcing more mafia mistakes.
I wish that some of the other players would come back and comment. It would be unfortunate if their first game were also their last
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On February 10 2012 15:53 Adam4167 wrote: Yeah, I was trying to push chocolate, but everyone seemed pretty dead-set on simberto.
I thought for sure chocolate was a deadman after sloosh posted that great analysis and then BAM, his vote goes on simberto.
O_o doesn't do justice to the look I had on my face at that point. So is it always better to lynch the strongest read regardless of the suspect's position / influence on town?
I was set on a Simberto/Chocolate team read, and wanted to lynch Simberto first to clear the giant mess, and that he is the more influential suspect, then move on to lynch Chocolate next day (until I got sidetracked onto Zelblade again ).
Is it better to lynch sure mafia first always?
(P.s. I am learning a lot through this discussion thank you guys for insights / inputs )
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I would say lynching your surest read for mafia is almost always the best course. A suspect's position and influence and the amount of information you get from the lynch come second to reducing mafia numbers. In the example of zelblade, if we had lynched him because he 'gave us more information' then Simberto might have ended up looking more red and Prob/Jitsu more green. With your Simberto vs Chocolate debate pushing Chocolate was the better option (I know it is hypocritical for me to say). Looking at their posts, Chocolate flipping red would all but clear Simberto, the reverse could also be true but it would be less definite. In a situation where 1 flipping red clears the other, and that 1 happens to be your strongest scum read, you have to push it.
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I quoted a scumbuddy in my first proper mafia post, so it's rather amusing that people dodge it so much. My principle as scum was to think as a townie first and scum second. Probably easier when you don't have any scumbuddies in the same timezone distracting you with that agenda stuff.
On February 10 2012 11:22 slOosh wrote: Also, how can you differentiate between timidity due to being new to the game and timidity due to being mafia? In-game coaching. Encourage timid players to post, draw reads out of them, tell them how they should be playing as town if you don't like their posts. Scum are much more likely to screw up if they post more and with higher quality, so it's all good.
I don't recommend calling them out too aggressively, as defending yourself is one thing that's just as easy to do as scum. Just gives them something to talk about that's unlikely to incriminate them.
On February 10 2012 14:21 slOosh wrote: Would it be good for me to apply Occam's razor more often? It's generally highly effective in Mafia, but I wouldn't personally have applied it to the Zarepath/Zelblade thing as Zarepath's attacks on Zelblade were suspiciously weak compared to his attack on Cosmos. Also Zarepath's play was nuts. He could have been doing anything.
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On February 10 2012 15:25 Adam4167 wrote: Lots of people focus on the position someone joined a vote wagon. Personally I think that's a waste of time, since as scum I'm just as likely to be #1 on the vote as i am to be #8.
I like to group people. I think I made that obvious with my paint skills. Ill see 8 people on a lynch. Generally I can instantly knock out 2 or 3 because one of them is me, 2 of them are posting so pro-town that they just wouldn't be mafia. From there I have 5 names, with the assumption that either 2-3 of them are scum. Then I look at how those 5 interact with each other. Who's ignoring each other too much? new mafia especially are very hesitant to even quote one of their partners writing, even if there's nothing scummy about it.
Take Zarepath for example. Hes quoted every single person in the entire game... except 4 people. One of them is me, since I joined late, and the other 3? yep... red. This really should have tipped me off earlier, but I was so focused on sacred.
Balt really doesn't have much of a filter to go through at all.
Chocolate - again same as zarepath. Not a single quote of the other scum, just everyone else.
Finally Bromancipate - quotes everyone in the entire game multiple times... except 3 people.
Do a quick scroll-through of their filters yourself. Its disgustingly accurate. We could have nailed the entire scum team on D2.
That's what convinced me Choco-Bro-Balt-DoYouhas were mafia by the end of D1...
..yeah I was wrong about DYH, but still >_>
On February 10 2012 13:52 Probulous wrote: Thanks Qatol, I enjoy reading the comments in the thread so please post them in here.
What are your thoughts on bussing as mafia? My biggest issue this game aside from being unavailable more than usual, was how to approach my mafia brethren in the thread. On one hand if I don't push them as hard as others the double standard becomes clear but if I push them too hard they end up getting lynched.
For example Day 1 you can read in the QT that as soon as zarepath made his opening post I knew it would be his downfall. It was a suspicious topic and was presented in a suspicious manner. How do I not avoid placing him at the top of my "scum" list? Jitsu chose Fake because he agreed but logically zarepath should have been target number 1.
The reason I told the boys to post lots was I felt confident in being able to survive for at least the first day and probably day 2 as well. So I wanted them to get as much thread presence as possible. The problem was that most of the team opened up in ways that would normally flag my red radar, how do I not implicate them?
Take Adam's case on me, it was based purely on me voting for Fake on Day 1 and knowing that normally I would not vote for such an obvious miss-lynch. I wasn't here for that vote and probably would have pushed us to vote elsewhere but the problem remains.
When is it appropriate to throw your team mates under the bus?
Treat your mafia buddies as just another "player", that way you immerse yourself more on the "townie" role you supposedly have.
Of course, if each scum link their big posts in their QT before posting them, you all can analyse it and figure out how to react to it in the thread.
On February 11 2012 06:15 jaj22 wrote: I quoted a scumbuddy in my first proper mafia post, so it's rather amusing that people dodge it so much. My principle as scum was to think as a townie first and scum second. Probably easier when you don't have any scumbuddies in the same timezone distracting you with that agenda stuff.
The point is not that they dont just quote each other at all.
The point is that they don't argue with each other.
You don't see scumbuddies FoSing each other, breaking each other's analysis, defending themselves against their buddy, at least not on D1-D2.
In fact, quoting a scumbuddy at the start of D1 to say something irrelevant is something lots of scum do, and I ignore that since anybody can do it.
I just take into account those full-fledge discussions between players, that you say "Wait, if both of them are scum then they must have spent 10 hours planning that, that must have been boring as hell and kind of pointless since nobody even pays attention to people interacting to each other, so both of them can't be scum", or something like that.
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So I was mulling this in my head for a while, the idea of mafia playing like town.
Town's goal is to flush out and lynch the mafia. Mafia's goal is to prevent them from doing this while using night kills to catch up in number.
Expanding upon that, flushing out happens with activity and meaningful direction, and so mafia want inactivity, confusion or aimlessness.
As mafia, do you just want to look like town? Is it good to be pro-town in certain areas/times for the town cred?
I'm thinking that good analysts can tell if you are trying to look town vs acting town, and so it becomes necessary at points to actually contribute, but as mafia you don't want to give anything that really helps town. It seems to me the only option left is to contribute but make sure it is in the wrong direction.
For example in this game that would be Bromancipate focusing on SacredSystem, which was the wrong direction, but he definitely looked like he was contributing. He also defended zelblade which was pro-town, but only for the purpose of lynching SacredSystem (I think that is what he said during the game? I'm not sure if he was lying or not). Say that his defense worked and quelled all suspicion on zelblade. Would that be an example of being too pro-town leading to downfall of mafia?
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On February 11 2012 08:09 slOosh wrote: So I was mulling this in my head for a while, the idea of mafia playing like town.
Town's goal is to flush out and lynch the mafia. Mafia's goal is to prevent them from doing this while using night kills to catch up in number.
Expanding upon that, flushing out happens with activity and meaningful direction, and so mafia want inactivity, confusion or aimlessness.
As mafia, do you just want to look like town? Is it good to be pro-town in certain areas/times for the town cred?
I'm thinking that good analysts can tell if you are trying to look town vs acting town, and so it becomes necessary at points to actually contribute, but as mafia you don't want to give anything that really helps town. It seems to me the only option left is to contribute but make sure it is in the wrong direction.
For example in this game that would be Bromancipate focusing on SacredSystem, which was the wrong direction, but he definitely looked like he was contributing. He also defended zelblade which was pro-town, but only for the purpose of lynching SacredSystem (I think that is what he said during the game? I'm not sure if he was lying or not). Say that his defense worked and quelled all suspicion on zelblade. Would that be an example of being too pro-town leading to downfall of mafia?
If you are mafia you want to be seen as pro-town contributor with bad reads.
Basicly you want people to see you and say "Damn, that's a bad townie" and not "Damn, that's a mafia".
You need a scum agenda as well. You appear pro-town, contribute and stuff, but every time you do so is with a goal in mind.
For instance at a time you may "pressure" a lurker, but in fact you are just crumbing suspicion on him, which you can later come back to in 2-3 more days to get him lynched, etc.
...or you can bus all your teammates from the start with 100% accurate analysis, and then just cruise throughout the whole game while your buddies silently hate you :p
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On February 11 2012 08:09 slOosh wrote: So I was mulling this in my head for a while, the idea of mafia playing like town.
Town's goal is to flush out and lynch the mafia. Mafia's goal is to prevent them from doing this while using night kills to catch up in number.
Expanding upon that, flushing out happens with activity and meaningful direction, and so mafia want inactivity, confusion or aimlessness.
As mafia, do you just want to look like town? Is it good to be pro-town in certain areas/times for the town cred?
I'm thinking that good analysts can tell if you are trying to look town vs acting town, and so it becomes necessary at points to actually contribute, but as mafia you don't want to give anything that really helps town. It seems to me the only option left is to contribute but make sure it is in the wrong direction.
For example in this game that would be Bromancipate focusing on SacredSystem, which was the wrong direction, but he definitely looked like he was contributing. He also defended zelblade which was pro-town, but only for the purpose of lynching SacredSystem (I think that is what he said during the game? I'm not sure if he was lying or not). Say that his defense worked and quelled all suspicion on zelblade. Would that be an example of being too pro-town leading to downfall of mafia?
My actual plan was that given so many people were convinced of zelblades guilt I would try and push for a SS lynch and let zelblade fall. That way both SS and Sim look guilty, I look innocent and I have recovered from not defending fake day 1. Unfortunately that is not what happened. You have hit the nail on the head though.
My biggest issue was how to interact with my mafia buddies. I knew they were scum and it was easy to see their intentions in their posts. If I was town I might have picked on those as well. Now if I throw my mafia buddies under the bus the only way we win is if I survive to LYLO. Surely it is better to let them live as long as possible without being caught. That is what made my game so difficult for me. I knew that by not pushing my mafia buddies I was looking bad but I also knew that bussing them would be detrimental to my win condition.
Qatol, how do you approach this problem?
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On February 11 2012 08:09 slOosh wrote: As mafia, do you just want to look like town? Is it good to be pro-town in certain areas/times for the town cred?
To an extent, as half-decent players can certainly tell when someone is only pretending to contribute. A worse problem as scum is meta: If you've established that you have a good town game, you'd better look pro-town when you're scum. Hence Probulous had a near impossible task here - activity excuses don't work forever.
Without meta, all you need to do is look more pro-town than the last guy you need to mislynch for the win. Quite easy in most games if you don't have some disaster with night actions.
I'm thinking that good analysts can tell if you are trying to look town vs acting town, and so it becomes necessary at points to actually contribute, but as mafia you don't want to give anything that really helps town. It seems to me the only option left is to contribute but make sure it is in the wrong direction.
Note that if all scum players were playing a solid town game and ignoring their hidden knowledge, they'd win, on average. The hidden knowledge hurts them.
As an example, consider a 9 town 3 scum game with no power roles. If a random player dies during the day, and a random town player dies at night, scum have an 89% win rate. As a caveat, I'm not absolutely sure that a 9/3 setup is considered balanced. Someone did run one here recently though.
@Gonzaw: Yeah, scum not communicating in thread is a common weakness, but they don't strictly need to plan it. As long as they're capable of writing posts without them screaming scum, they shouldn't be afraid to communicate with each other in thread, just like they were communicating with anyone else. Of course, a lot of new scum players are (rightly) afraid to communicate with anyone at all.
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Yeah, I played in the 9v3 game, scum won in a flawless victory.
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The focus was entirely on players and analysis, not sitting about hoping a blue might rescue them and solve the whole puzzle.
The town still had the standard 3 mislynches available to them and still required 3 correct lynches to win. What it came down to was a lesser experienced town ran into a heavily co-ordinated mafia team.
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On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote: The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The point is that the psychology only matters because the scum know that they're scum and act like it. If they had no idea, and were happily lynching their own team in the belief that they were themselves town, they'd have that 89% win rate.
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On February 11 2012 10:26 jaj22 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote: The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The point is that the psychology only matters because the scum know that they're scum and act like it. If they had no idea, and were happily lynching their own team in the belief that they were themselves town, they'd have that 89% win rate. But I suppose the existence (or even possibility) of cops / investigative roles prevent this kind of stuff?
Hypothetically assume that there is a game setup where each mafia does not know who his teammates are (kinda like Sleeper Cell Mafia). Then remove the possibility of shooting a mafia (doesn't matter how, just assume it defaults to random townie in worst case). Do you think that 89% would still appear (assuming no power roles) ?
It's the hidden information of knowing who your teammates are that makes people look mafia no?
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On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote: Yeah, I played in the 9v3 game, scum won in a flawless victory.
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The focus was entirely on players and analysis, not sitting about hoping a blue might rescue them and solve the whole puzzle.
The town still had the standard 3 mislynches available to them and still required 3 correct lynches to win. What it came down to was a lesser experienced town ran into a heavily co-ordinated mafia team.
I really want to see a good, co-ordinated mafia team vs. a competent, constructive town. have yet to see that in my own games; always one or the other heh
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On February 11 2012 16:20 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote: Yeah, I played in the 9v3 game, scum won in a flawless victory.
The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The focus was entirely on players and analysis, not sitting about hoping a blue might rescue them and solve the whole puzzle.
The town still had the standard 3 mislynches available to them and still required 3 correct lynches to win. What it came down to was a lesser experienced town ran into a heavily co-ordinated mafia team. I really want to see a good, co-ordinated mafia team vs. a competent, constructive town. have yet to see that in my own games; always one or the other heh Or neither.
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On February 11 2012 15:41 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2012 10:26 jaj22 wrote:On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote: The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The point is that the psychology only matters because the scum know that they're scum and act like it. If they had no idea, and were happily lynching their own team in the belief that they were themselves town, they'd have that 89% win rate. But I suppose the existence (or even possibility) of cops / investigative roles prevent this kind of stuff? They change the balance but they don't invalidate the theory. If anything, investigative roles make it even more important for scum to play townie, because DTs are much more effective when they have a narrower target choice. I'm not sure what the standard rules are for balancing DTs in these games.
It's the hidden information of knowing who your teammates are that makes people look mafia no?
That's not the only form of scum agenda. Scum are unlikely to encourage productive discussion and more likely to make filler posts. They tend to avoid the spotlight, and so avoid making strong attacks or strong defences (Zarepath being a notable exception here). This is sometimes a fear/guilt response and sometimes a conscious effort not to help town.
Another common scum mistake is to forget which team they're supposed to be supporting and look angry when the game is going badly for scum, or happy when the game is going badly for town. Players will often realise that they're doing this and overcorrect, which is why congratulating the medic is a common scumtell.
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On February 12 2012 00:33 jaj22 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2012 15:41 slOosh wrote:On February 11 2012 10:26 jaj22 wrote:On February 11 2012 10:19 Adam4167 wrote: The game is only 89% win rate if there is zero discussion and everything occurs at random. Mafia is anything but random, you add in psychology and suddenly that number swings back the other way. The point is that the psychology only matters because the scum know that they're scum and act like it. If they had no idea, and were happily lynching their own team in the belief that they were themselves town, they'd have that 89% win rate. But I suppose the existence (or even possibility) of cops / investigative roles prevent this kind of stuff? They change the balance but they don't invalidate the theory. If anything, investigative roles make it even more important for scum to play townie, because DTs are much more effective when they have a narrower target choice. I'm not sure what the standard rules are for balancing DTs in these games. Show nested quote + It's the hidden information of knowing who your teammates are that makes people look mafia no?
That's not the only form of scum agenda. Scum are unlikely to encourage productive discussion and more likely to make filler posts. They tend to avoid the spotlight, and so avoid making strong attacks or strong defences (Zarepath being a notable exception here). This is sometimes a fear/guilt response and sometimes a conscious effort not to help town. Another common scum mistake is to forget which team they're supposed to be supporting and look angry when the game is going badly for scum, or happy when the game is going badly for town. Players will often realise that they're doing this and overcorrect, which is why congratulating the medic is a common scumtell.
I never understood why congratulating the medic/vet made you automatically scum..
...I mean poor medic, you are basicly inviting people to boo him
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Qatol, are you still planning on posting analysis for this game?
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On February 15 2012 14:21 DoYouHas wrote: Qatol, are you still planning on posting analysis for this game? Yes. Sorry, my weekend just got a bit busy. I haven't forgotten!
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On February 15 2012 14:21 DoYouHas wrote: Qatol, are you still planning on posting analysis for this game?
I would like to second this appeal. It would be nice to have your thoughts Qatol.
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So, school has died down a bit for me. I signed up for a Fine Arts class called "Play Production" at the behest of my adviser. Little did I know that I would be voted "Stage Manager," and having absolutely no prior play experience, I was almost immediately drowned in how much work I had to keep up with. On top of that, the class is an experiment to see if they want to institute a Play Production class in every semester at my school from here on out. Oh job. -.- Rest assured, I won't be signing up for anything with Play in it again.
Sorry to my team for not being active enough to participate. I dug a pretty shitty hole for Probu coming back in, but I think we did a decent job after I was able to get some solid communication with him when we starting hitting the same page, both through our QT and PM's.
Sloosh played really, really well as medic, as well as DoYouHas. Those two contributions obviously gave the town a huge advantage, especially hero medic saves. I really wanted DoYouHas (especially DoYouHas) and Sloosh dead, because at the end of the first day, I felt it best to try to keep the town in confusion. The addition of Adam really hit something home. He would have undoubtedly found something out if sloosh/DYH hadn't. I had a feeling that, after the first day, Sloosh and DYH would flip at least one blue between them. Didn't know both would turn up.
A note to MidnightGladius. Just so you know, if I ever see you post like that, I will probably strongly advocate for you're lynch. I hinted at it early game, but I had trouble keeping pressure up due to time constraints. I feel that you're posts, especially the initial one, we're contributing more towards town confusion then contribution. I think that you're read on Balt was accurate, obviously since he was red, but I wasn't sure if it was all original or pushed because of my less-then-ideal bus on him earlier. Beyond that, nice shot.
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On February 16 2012 05:09 Jitsu wrote:Sorry to my team for not being active enough to participate. I dug a pretty shitty hole for Probu coming back in, but I think we did a decent job after I was able to get some solid communication with him when we starting hitting the same page, both through our QT and PM's.
*Brofist* FreedomForAll!
I wasn't exactly helpful either, what with the wine drinking and such. No need to apologise, we knew we would be busy.
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On February 10 2012 08:14 MidnightGladius wrote: On Night 2, as I was considering who to shoot, I was suspicious of Bromancipate, but I was more suspicious of balt11t. I hadn't fully considered the interaction between the vigilante ability and mafia roleblocking, but here was my initial plan:
1) Call a shot on balt11t at the beginning of the Night and look at the town's response.
a) If it became obvious from balt11t's response that he was indeed mafia, and that the town was in favor of lynching him regardless, I would switch targets and shoot Bromancipate instead, claiming this in the thread shortly before the Day post.
b) If I was wrong about balt11t, and he claimed a blue role and provided useful information, I would switch my shot to Bromancipate, knowing that I was probably going to be killed by the mafia during the night. The town could sort out the claim afterward.
c) If no particularly useful information came out of the exchange, I would play it safe and not switch targets.
In the end, it was pretty clear that balt11t wouldn't be alive for much longer no matter what happened, but I thought about it a little bit more. On the one hand, if I had been right with both of my reads, it would have essentially wrapped up the game. On the other hand, had I been wrong about either balt11t or Bromancipate, or heaven forbid both, the town would have been thrown into chaos and the endgame would have been much more messy.
As the town was in a pretty strong position following the first medic save and zarepath's lynch, I ultimately decided to play it safe. Of course, it turned out that my reads were right, but I don't want to be a victim of hindsight bias.
What would you have done as a vigilante in that position? Would it have been right to trust my reads and go for the big play, or is it better to just play safely? Alternatively, would I have been better off not calling my shot on balt11t in the first place and either holding onto my shot, or still shooting him and claiming it on the next Day? The first consideration you have to make when deciding to call a shot in the thread is whether or not the game has a way to stop your hit. If there is the potential for mafia medics, bus drivers, or roleblockers (or another role that can block/stop/screw with your hit), you should NOT call your shot. Any potential information you could get out of the attempt is not worth the risk of your shot getting blocked/cancelled. Instead, I recommend breadcruming the hit (spell balt with the first letter of the first word of 4 posts or something - be a little creative with this, but not so out there that people think you are just making it up after the fact) and then claim the hit afterwards.
Remember, half of the strength of the vigilante role is that it confirms you as innocent because you add another KP to the night which couldn't have come from the mafia. However, with that in mind, you can rely more upon information in a setup where the mafia cannot stop the shot if you think you have a decent chance of surviving the night (thanks to roles such as town medics).
I thought you used your hit at the correct timing in the game, and it looked like you were thinking about the right sorts of things when pinning down your mafia members. You need to trust your instincts assuming you have a solid read on someone. Don't trust the logic of someone else in the thread unless you are SURE they are town and you think they have a better idea of how to scumhunt than you do. Shooting when you did also stopped the town from mislynching you (and you were under at least a little pressure in that regard). You don't want to die with your shot still in your pocket. That being said, don't shoot on night 2 as a vigi just because you don't want to die without having used it. Using the shot on a townie is really bad for the town in a game this small. While you wind up confirmed (so it's not completely a waste), you can't afford to reduce the town count or waste town KP.
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Yo, Qatol, can you answer my question from earlier linky
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On February 17 2012 08:31 Probulous wrote:Yo, Qatol, can you answer my question from earlier linky Yeah I'll get to it. Your question is on page 36. I'm still on page 33.
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On February 10 2012 11:22 slOosh wrote: It seems that the game was won mostly through help of blue roles in confirming ppl for late game rather than strong analysis.
People in Obs QT said my case against Zarepath was weak / confirmation bias, and I think besides MidnightGladius' vig shot and Adams hunches on Chocolate, as a town we didn't ever rally around a good analysis case.
Could you help point out posts which tipped off people as mafia? Or is this more an overall feel in which each post adds to the case rather than one solid post upon which you can lynch mafia?
Also, how can you differentiate between timidity due to being new to the game and timidity due to being mafia? I agree that you didn't really rally around a good analysis case all game. I felt the zarepath lynch was lucky, and the rest came down to good blue play. MidnightGladius caught balt11t not contributing (which was a solid read), and chocolate and bromancipate were found mathematically.
I don't know if it's easy to point out which posts tipped off the people in the observer QT. Besides, most of the people in the observer QT were pretty far off base most of the game. In this game, I think the easiest way to figure out who was mafia was to look at the people who weren't really contributing very much. It was pretty obvious that the mafia didn't have much thread presence when zarepath got himself lynched. At that point, you should be looking to the players who don't have much of an ability to push an agenda in the thread. You can do really solid analysis by thinking about the position the mafia must be in based on how the game is going and then looking for players who fit the profile.
Generally, I don't think that you will find a tip off in every post by a player. I personally think post by post analysis is very silly. It usually comes down to a few posts where you realize that the player is not pushing the right kind of agenda. I'm reluctant to point out a specific post in this thread because of confirmation bias however. If you're okay with a little of that possibly leaking in, I'll go find something.
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What does pushing a wrong agenda look like? What differentiates it from a normal agenda (or a newbie town agenda)?
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On February 18 2012 06:01 slOosh wrote: What does pushing a wrong agenda look like? What differentiates it from a normal agenda (or a newbie town agenda)? Generally town players will try to contribute. Meanwhile, mafia will try to act like they are contributing without actually doing anything themselves. Look for things like: Poking holes in the accusations of others while not putting forward any of your own Pushing someone they know has no chance of getting lynched (usually so they can justify staying off bandwagons and not voting with the town) Pushing a few candidates someone weakly in the hopes of the town picking up on one of them and running with it (that way they "contributed" to the lynch). You will notice that they drop a lot of their weak accusations relatively quickly and quietly.
Meanwhile newbie townies fall into 2 categories: They try hard to contribute (at least once or twice - they may get discouraged after failure), but their logic is generally pretty bad. They follow around players they think are better/more experienced, agreeing with most of the things that player says
Newbie mafia tend to get talked out of doing the latter one for too long by their teammates and you can usually differentiate with the former based on whether they actually tried to do a good analysis or not. It should be decently obvious to see which analyses took actual effort to put together, even if the logic isn't very good.
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Hm, i did basically all on your mafia list while still being town, probably because i am just too careful and not really sure of what i think is really true. Probably what got me lynched in the end.
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