|
On January 31 2012 11:28 CosmosXAM wrote:I agree with you on pretty much everything slOosh except Show nested quote +You have hindsight bias here. Zarepath defended himself saying that his plan was just a ploy to generate discussion. People believed this or at least gave him benefit of doubt. We didn't know (100% upon flip) that Zarepath was mafia till day 2. On day 1, no one vocally suspected him until me, then a few others.
If you look on page 10 I was actually the first to suggest zarepath, you made your point on page 11, not trying to say anything I just wouldn't like to be forgotten about that. Shoot my bad. Yea, credit to where credit is due.
|
Town Bromancipate DoYouHas - His aggression to SS and his logical analysis confirms his alignment for me. The shot is an added bonus. sl0osh Adam4167 - Explained previously MG - Claimed Vig and if Balt dies is pretty much confirmed.
Null Zelblade - I can explain his actions from both a town or mafia POV so hence he is null. Jitsu is agrees with this. CosmosXAM - Hasn't posted a lot but his early pressure on Zarepath brings me back to null. He needs to be more active. Chocolate - Not much to go on. Did call out SS early but needs to post more. Simberto - Posts a lot but there are a lot of contradictions in what he says. I can provide more info if asked.
Mafia SacredSystem balt11t, probably dead
That leaves one mafia in our null list. We am more inclined to think that Zelbalde is town which leaves Cosmos, Chocolate and Simberto. Jitsu and Probu had a discussion earlier. Through the talkings, Probu urged me to read through Zelblade's filter again. I did. I see a lot of play reminiscent of a gentlemen by the name of CatsnHats, who I tunneled pretty much all game once and he turned out to be town. For right now, at least, we are going to keep it at a null read until we can make a more solid read during Day3. I see a lot of medicority. What do you think slOosh?
|
On January 31 2012 11:10 Chocolate wrote:Show nested quote +I am giving leeway to SS based on my belief that Zelblade is mafia. It is conditional leeway. Hypothetically if there was room for another mafia member on the team I would totally agree with you and move to lynch SS. However because there are only 4 and I cannot see how mafia team could be Zarepath, Zelblade, balt11t and SS, I am inclined to believe SS is just a confusing, anti-town townie (much like FakePromise). I don't really like this. It seems pretty risky to let bad/scummy play go unpunished just because you don't think these two could both be mafia. Is it unlikely that they are both mafia? Yes. Is it possible? Who knows. I just think these are dangerous waters, because two players are "scummy" and yet you're only letting one actually be scum, when we still have two spots left (I'm pretty convinced balt is scum. We'll see.). I'm not "letting" one be scum. I think I made it clear in my response to Probulous that I think zelblade is much more likely to be mafia, and based off of his interactions with Sacred that it only makes sense that they are together 1 mafia and 1 town (opposed to 2 mafia).
Also, since we have a full day afterwards (48 hours) I can take in the new night information and adjust my position accordingly. It isn't as if I declared my stance and I am unmovable in my thoughts. However, I do agree with you and others when we should throw caution into the wind. It just irks me when people are overly cautious to the point that it paralyses them from moving.
As for my reads: DoYouHas: Claimed to get hit last night. Pushed forth our first mafia lynch. Unafraid to call out other townies on logical mistakes (such as mine and Simberto's). Desires more discussion and provides good analysis.
MidnightGladius: Claiming a vigi shot publically along with clear analysis against a hard time lurker. Hoping for no roleblock as getting rid of balt11t is helpful as it reduces uncertainties.
Simberto: Active, has provided new contributions (rather than always posting off of others) and has no fear of his votes getting potentially spotlighted (as he provides his reasoning every time he switches). Only thing weird about him is his WIFOMs, but I think this is because he is very, very cautious. (which I said above I don't like so I'd like to encourage him to speak with a little less fear)
balt11t: MG's case sums it up.
Zelblade: Look at my case before Bromanicipate's post and then my response to it.
SacredSystem: In the off chance that Zelblade is green, I totally agree with Bromancipate & Adam's analysis. I would have gone for him if I didn't feel so strongly about Zelblade.
Bromancipate: As stated before I forgot that he is a hydra that may have two differing opinions between the heads. I agree with the Jitsu head(?) but I'm confused how to treat them. Have to consider null until they get together, work it out and post a united viewpoint.
Chocolate: Only talks about SS in his filter and then makes the statement
On January 30 2012 02:19 Chocolate wrote: I'm voting for zarepath because he seems the most scummy out of everyone right now and because if we don't lynch today we'll be in a pretty bad position if mafia get a kill tonight. Worth looking out for.
|
On January 31 2012 11:49 Bromancipate wrote: Town Bromancipate DoYouHas - His aggression to SS and his logical analysis confirms his alignment for me. The shot is an added bonus. sl0osh Adam4167 - Explained previously MG - Claimed Vig and if Balt dies is pretty much confirmed.
Null Zelblade - I can explain his actions from both a town or mafia POV so hence he is null. Jitsu is agrees with this. CosmosXAM - Hasn't posted a lot but his early pressure on Zarepath brings me back to null. He needs to be more active. Chocolate - Not much to go on. Did call out SS early but needs to post more. Simberto - Posts a lot but there are a lot of contradictions in what he says. I can provide more info if asked.
Mafia SacredSystem balt11t, probably dead
That leaves one mafia in our null list. We am more inclined to think that Zelbalde is town which leaves Cosmos, Chocolate and Simberto. Jitsu and Probu had a discussion earlier. Through the talkings, Probu urged me to read through Zelblade's filter again. I did. I see a lot of play reminiscent of a gentlemen by the name of CatsnHats, who I tunneled pretty much all game once and he turned out to be town. For right now, at least, we are going to keep it at a null read until we can make a more solid read during Day3. I see a lot of medicority. What do you think slOosh?
Ah was writing up post when you posted that. Like I said, Simberto seems like overly cautious town. I agree with you on Chocolate that beside the SS thing he hasn't posted much more, same with Cosmos (who is slightly more town imo since his relation with Zarepath). If other people like DoYouHas and Adam think that Sacred is mafia more than Zelblade I will go with that since I trust in their logical 3rd party analysis (Adam was wrong on Zarepath but had good reasoning so it is town read)
|
Quick question. Are you three people or two? You switched from 3rd person to 1st so I'm not too sure of who is posting.
|
My scum list: Simberto(very confident), SacredSystem(pretty confident), zarepath(dead) My town list: sl0osh, Adam, Bromancipate, CosmosXAM, zelblade, MidnightGladius(if his hit goes through)
|
Incensed by the capture and execution of their comrade, the three remaining Mafia reverted to what they did best: killing innocent people. The death of their ally and fellow Mafioso demanded vengeance of the bloodest kind. In the darkest hours before dawn, the three escaped criminals lay in wait around the home of one of the town's most upstanding citizens, keeping an eye out for when he left for work in the morning. As the sky began to lighten and the first birds sang, MidnightGladius finally opened the door and started down the sidewalk for another day at the office. Right on cue, the vengeful Mafia members burst out of the trees in unison and dragged him down into an alleyway, screaming. Within the narrow alley, they descended upon MidnightGladius and stabbed him viciously all over his body.
The three Mafia members hurried away to get away from the scene of the murder, choosing a route that took them down a quiet side street. However, as they turned to run, the dying MidnightGladius grabbed the boot-knife sheathed at one of his killers' ankles and pulled it free. With a heroic effort, he threw the knife at the back of the retreating balt11t. End over end, the knife flashed toward balt11t with deadly accuracy and buried itself hilt-deep into his back. Before he even knew what had hit him, balt11t collapsed onto the ground and bled to death.
MidnightGladius the Vigilante is dead. balt11t the Mafia Goon is dead.
It is now Day Three. You have 48 hours to vote for whom to lynch. The deadline is 03:00 GMT (+00:00) two days from now on Wednesday, Feb. 1.
|
Good luck, my comrades. Trust in Bayes!
|
Alright. Looks like I have to eat some more humble pie and consider being at fault of tunnel vision once again.
I will look into DYH's reads before he posts to see if I come to same conclusions.
|
Wow guess we were right about both of them, we lost another town but at least MG's shot hit. Time to start scouring for the final two mafia, I'm feeling optimistic that today's analysis on top of previous parts will bring down another mafia. Now for whom I think I would have to go with zelblade and either SS or chocolate, but zelblade is at a 75-80% probability in my mind and the others at about 60%. Not the best odds (to me at least from what I saw, this is all personal opinion) but its something to go off of at least (trying not to get tunnel vision)
P.S. My compliments to dreamflower for making the story much more interesting :D
|
Well.. it might be WIFOM'ey, but if they were ever going to use a roleblock... it would have been then.
This opens up the possibility of a mass claim for blues barring the medic.
|
I will be making my case against [red]Simberto[red] today. This will include why he is mafia, why he is the most dangerous to the town atm, and why he needs to be lynched today above all others. This will be another wall of text post and so I encourage you to look into him yourself since it will take me a while to write. Don't just use his filter either, you need a sense of what was going on in the thread in order to see what I've seen.
|
On January 31 2012 12:26 DoYouHas wrote: I will be making my case against [red]Simberto[red] today. This will include why he is mafia, why he is the most dangerous to the town atm, and why he needs to be lynched today above all others. This will be another wall of text post and so I encourage you to look into him yourself since it will take me a while to write. Don't just use his filter either, you need a sense of what was going on in the thread in order to see what I've seen.
I like that you bring that up, I just started looking through his posts and what he reacts too, and am starting to get a feel for what you might say. Hopefully I see your post before I go to sleep, but until then I will be looking into him more.
|
One thing I would like to point out right now because I might not have time to post again is that Simberto targets zelblade nearly 100% of the time only when it seems like there is no way zelblade is talked about or targeted by others does he seem to talk about others. This just rubs me the wrong way but its not truly condemning until further evidence might show up.
|
Tried as hard as I could to look objectively without bias. Skimmed for feel rather than filter / point by point to help avoid confirmation bias. My thoughts (before I influence myself with DYH's points to see if they match up) + Show Spoiler +Biggest thing is his constant insistence on Zelblade from day 1. Again and again he brings up the name. Is it that the way he does it is suspicious? His liberal usage of the word scummy? I looked at my filter (for the first time, and it was weird O.o) and tried comparing how we both push for the lynch. I guess I'm very straightforward with my intentions with a clear reminder of $$Vote Zelblade while Simberto drops his name here and there, usually with some other names as to disguise it? On January 28 2012 17:35 Simberto wrote: Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment. This was one of the WIFOM things I talked about in my Simberto town read. I thought he was overly cautious. My objective analysis posted a few minutes before: On January 31 2012 11:51 slOosh wrote: Also, since we have a full day afterwards (48 hours) I can take in the new night information and adjust my position accordingly. It isn't as if I declared my stance and I am unmovable in my thoughts. However, I do agree with you and others when we should throw caution into the wind. It just irks me when people are overly cautious to the point that it paralyses them from moving.
...
Simberto: Active, has provided new contributions (rather than always posting off of others) and has no fear of his votes getting potentially spotlighted (as he provides his reasoning every time he switches). Only thing weird about him is his WIFOMs, but I think this is because he is very, very cautious. (which I said above I don't like so I'd like to encourage him to speak with a little less fear)
Is this a sign of mafia? Being overly cautious? On January 28 2012 12:05 Simberto wrote: Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody. I read somewhere (Mafiascum) that people who congratulate medic saves (dunno why he assumed that it was medic not vet) are most likely mafia or the medic themselves. But since it is my first game I really didn't know if this was reliable or not.
But then again I have this bias where I trust DYH's thoughts, and its hard to distinguish if I like his logic or the fact that he is town I trust (who happens to provide good analysis).
|
Simberto's Filter Simberto established himself early as someone that many of us trusted. He did this with his general activity level and his sincere efforts to focus on and pressure lurkers. What exactly did he do with his unquestioned position in the town? Very little. He has consistently thrown his suspicion on zelblade, but has never bothered to put together a strong, focused case or push hard. The closest he comes is this post + Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 12:03 Simberto wrote:Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online. Anyways, here is my conclusion. I would prefer if you try to look at how day 1 evolved with an open mind yourself before reading it to avoid confirmation bias, though. + Show Spoiler +I find the whole of day 1 interestingly consistent with a hypothesis of a mafia group consisting of zelbalde, SacredSystem, CosmosXAM and balt11tFakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk.
Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
Now, at day 1, mafia who just wanted to be completely comfortable in their own room suddenly got attacked by the first post, pretty randomly. Not really a problem, just need to assault the idea of a random lynch, and maybe attack some other person who is at hand. Now, they point a bit onto FakePromise. Zelblade tries to post something inconspicious to not be the person of interest anymore, and makes the "to town" slip: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
This puts him under scrutiny and into the spotlight. Anything he says now is constructed negatively. So mafia try again to push the spotlight onto someone else, the old target. My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post.
As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned. Now, we have one thing that i am not exactly sure of, which is Midnight attacking FakePromise, but maybe he really only want's to get lurkers to post. I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast.
Now this by CosmosXAM, this is just weird. Doesn't it sound like he is not defending FakePromise, but actually zelblade? To me it does. Then, we have SacredSystem answering a question directed to CosmosXAM. If that is not scummy, i don't know what is. On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:
Right, we've moved on past random lynching.
Who do you think is suspicious? you and fakepromise you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you And FakePromise comes up again. Note that up to this point, the spotlight was very much on zelblade only. CosmosXAM states the exact same thing afterwards, with the added OMGUS onto Chocolate. Now DoYouHas votes on zelblade, and instantly afterwards SacredSystem votes for FakePromise. Just look at it: Every time one of those four gets into trouble (zelblade and CosmosXAM), something from one of the others happens that redirects the thread towards FakePromise. As soon as Zarepath brings up Cosmos as an alternate lynch target, zelblade votes onto FakePromise. When they are equal on votes, balt11t very fastly votes for FakePromise to make him lead again. Now, take a look at the votes list. Interestingly enough, this team has votes 2, 4 and 6 on FakePromise. As i said before, 3 votes expected, and of course never vote in tandem to avoid suspicion. Now, i know that all of this hangs on zelblade being mafia, but this is my take on the situation at the moment. I would really like to hear what others think about it. which spreads the focus over 4 players. Hardly a post to get 1 person lynched over. And this is very common for Simberto. He has spread his suspicion around throughout this game. Just enough that he can justify voting for pretty much anyone, especially lurkers. Quoting all the posts where he does this would be cumbersome so here. (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) How has he used his voting? To flip-flop and bandwagon. Day1, first FakePromise, then CosmosXAM, then Zarepath, then back to Fakepromise. I'm not going to criticize for his early arguments against FakePromise, it doesn't distinguish him from the crowd. However, I think his 2 posts that contain the vote change from CosmosXAM to Zarepath and Zarepath back to Fakepromise are extremely interesting. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 09:26 Simberto wrote: Very interesting. After reading this, and rereading Zarepaths filter 2 times, I can definitively see what you mean. Noticeable is that Zarepaths only real contribution was to defend FakePromise, which makes both of them extremely linked in my opinion.
If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me.
I will probably stay up a bit later tonight (this is far too interesting), so if we for some reason absolutely can't get a lynch onto Zarepath, i will change my vote to FakePromise. Please, everyone who wants to lynch Zarepath react as fast as possible, and everyone who does not want to do that, also react fast (and especially give reasons). We are running on limited time now, so i suggest that we concentrate on this one instead of half a dozen half-cases like we did before.
##unvote CosmosXAM ##vote Zarepath On January 27 2012 11:18 Simberto wrote: Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe).
##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise The bolded part of the first post is some extremely flawed logic which only has the purpose of pushing a day2 FakePromise lynch even if zarepath is to die. I pointed out the flaw in this logic when it happened with this post, My Post. My post is ignored, and this same bad logic pops up when he switches his vote back to FakePromise, this time a green flip is supposed to mean that the case on zarepath is based on poor assumptions and he is also green. Italicized is Simberto's call to pile onto FakePromise which would have the dual function of making the lynch safe and masking bandwagoners, of which he is one. Day2 his voting is equally strange when you look at the posts that go along with it. He starts with a vote against zelblade, yet again without a strong case to back it up. Neither does he try to make this case later. Then we get a little filler on the reasons to claim a hit and how to do it. And then we get these 2 strange posts preceding his vote switch to zarepath. + Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote: I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself.
This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong).
For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up.
I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes. On January 30 2012 07:27 Simberto wrote: At this point, zarepath is dead. I must say that i am getting slightly suspicious of this action beacuse of the limited resistence it is met with. Either mafia has decided that he is unsafeable and don't want to invest to heavily in trying to defend him, or he is not really mafia.
Anyways the case is still pretty good, so we will see how he flips, and then go from there. My vote on zelblade is obviously useless at this point, so i will switch it over to zarepath, this way there are 9 people on him, so even if mafia decides to do something last-minute, they will still need to get 2 people of him. I also find it interesting how late people place their vote even though i though we wanted to place them as early as possible for transparency reasons. Not to mention balt11t being completely vanished and maybe even getting modkilled at this point.
##unvote zelblade ##vote zarepath This first post contains an outright error on top of being fishy. Zelblade's original attack on SacredSystem came before my announced suspicion on zarepath, and his original case on SacredSystem came out before my analysis of zarepath. Simberto is linking zelblade's guilt with zarepath's, just like he did with FakePromise. Then he states that my case against zarepath is strong, that his own logic only strengthens my case, and that he found more inconsistencies on top the ones I pointed out. And yet, this is not enough to get him to change his vote. This sounds to me like he is keeping his options open. In his second post he is switching his vote not because he has become more convinced of zarepath's guilt. Rather, he has become less convinced because of the lack of resistance to a zarepath lynch. Simberto cites the inevitability of a zarepath lynch and hops aboard in order to make it safe. Note that he never seems to display conviction in the guilt of the people he is voting for, with the possible exception of zelblade, but I think I have already explained the strangeness of that situation.
Then there are Simberto's unexplained logical mistakes. I have already pointed out one of them where I tried to correct Simberto and was ignored. Another is a more recent exchange where Simberto was downplaying the likelihood of a godfather being in the game because zarepath had not been the godfather. Start of the Exchange Not only is this wrong, as I pointed out, but it is a message that zarepath also used. Let me respond with a WIFOM of my own: in a game with 9 and 4, I don't know how likely it is that mafia get a Godfather. It is pretty clear to me that the likelihood of the mafia having a godfather has gone way up since MidnightGladius's shot was not roleblocked. As a town we know that we have at least 2 blue roles, this raises the chances of mafia having at least 1 non-goon role, and I think it is safe to say that it isn't a roleblocker.
In conclusion, Simberto was in a position of trust and influence and has done very little with it. He has contented himself with conspiracy theories instead of actively pushing the lynching of a player he finds suspicious. This, combined with his scummy voting record and breaks in logic which favor the mafia are why I am confident that Simberto is scum.
|
I almost forgot to answer "why Simberto is the most dangerous, and why he needs to die today". Simberto is the most dangerous scum because he has so neatly avoided most people's mafia lists. He needs to die today because not only is he scum, but confirmation of that will give us a lot of information about zelblade, SacredSystem, and that whole situation in general.
|
|
Ok, i will respond to all suspicions in order, but this may take some time.
|
On January 31 2012 08:01 Bromancipate wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2012 16:24 Simberto wrote: Ok. With the information that Zarepath is mafia, i don't think we should lynch either SacredSystem or CosmosXAM too soon, seeing as CosmosXAM was brought up as an alternative to FakePromise on day 1, which would be a pretty good thing to do to both make yourself look town by contributing original ideas, and have a lynch debate where both targets are town, which is an ideal situation for mafia to be in since they can easily honestly contribute (this might be an elaborate ruse, but i don't think so, it just feels like it would be pretty risky if Cosmos is mafia)
For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia.
Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case. Alright, there seems to be some suspicion on me which is fine. I would encourage people to read my filter (it's short) and let me know what you think. I will get to sl0osh in a moment. Sim this part of your post is a little weird to me. That first paragrpah is WIFOM with no conclusion. You say we shouldn't lynch Cosmos because you don't think that we could spot a mafia on Day 1? Explain.
No, that is absolutely not what i was saying. What i was doing was looking at the situation with the knowledge that Zarepath is mafia. Not every try to analyse mafia intentions is WIFOM. My conclusions was that under the knowledge that zarepath is mafia, I find it very likely that CosmosXAM is town. Not sure, but very likely. Thus, there are other people one should lynch other, more suspicious people first.
Bromancipate
SacredSystems alignment does not hang out zelblade's flip. I have made my feelings about zelblade clear and the same for SS. But just because zelblade targeted SS does not mean they are on opposite teams. Again in Newbie II mafia used exactly this tactic so that people would make the jump you just made. I repeat the flip of zelblade does not tell you wether SS is scum or not.
I believe he is based on his posting. But I don't think zelblade is scum. So if we do go ahead and lynch zelblade and he flips town, well that makes SS look bad in your eyes, which is fine with me. But don't drop suspicion of SS if zelblade turns out to be scum.
This is not what i was saying. What i said was that under the assumption that zelblade is scum, which i believe is true, it is unlikely that SacredSystem is Scum, too. Thus, the thing hanging on zelblades scumminess i meant is not SacredSystems alignment, but my argument in that paragraph. Also, the other point of that paragraph is that the only attempt to divert attention away from zarepath is zelblades aggression onto SacredSystem, which with the knowledge that Zarepath is mafia makes zelblade look scummy.
|
|
|
|