On April 23 2024 05:43 Poopi wrote: No way Maru wins another GSL. Probably Reynor winning it all since no Serral
Maru just seems like such an overwhelming favorite against nearly everyone, and then a pretty reasonable favorite against hero/dark. Probably at least 50/50 against Reynor if not more.
Yeah it depends on form of the day but Maru is accustomed to GSL so he should be favorite However he won so many of them I doubt he would care that much, whereas Reynor has one last shot to win it and is pretty mad that Maru got #1 on the goat list Reynor has to defend that foreign scene is not useless while Maru has to win yet another weak GSL, so Reynor should be more motivated
On April 23 2024 05:43 Poopi wrote: No way Maru wins another GSL. Probably Reynor winning it all since no Serral
Maru just seems like such an overwhelming favorite against nearly everyone, and then a pretty reasonable favorite against hero/dark. Probably at least 50/50 against Reynor if not more.
Mostly depends who shows up. 2024 Reynor seems less than 50/50. Top-shape Reynor is like 70/30 easily
Funny considering Maru has an almost 70% series winrate against him and most of the series he lost were online with high ping in the middle of the night in KR...
Whenever Reynor wins a series vs. Maru, it results in him either winning the tournament or losing to the actual winner (usually Serral). But he always placed atleast Top 4. Thus my point that Top-shape Reynor is the favorite over Maru. But top-shape Reynor showing up is an entirely different discussion. But just in case you should definetly ramp up your copium. Because as we all know, never has a foreigner won a fair series against a korean - not even when it is offline in Korea
On April 23 2024 05:43 Poopi wrote: No way Maru wins another GSL. Probably Reynor winning it all since no Serral
Maru just seems like such an overwhelming favorite against nearly everyone, and then a pretty reasonable favorite against hero/dark. Probably at least 50/50 against Reynor if not more.
Mostly depends who shows up. 2024 Reynor seems less than 50/50. Top-shape Reynor is like 70/30 easily
Funny considering Maru has an almost 70% series winrate against him and most of the series he lost were online with high ping in the middle of the night in KR...
Offline tournaments after Covid they are pretty even no? I think it's Reynor 2:3 Maru in offline matches and 7:10 im maps
While I agree that group C is probably the hardest on paper compared to the other 3 - I think people are overestimating by how much based on historical context.
By all accounts, Rogue is only back a few weeks and is not current at title contention level. He likely won’t make it out of the Ro16 barring some breaks going his way. Additionally, while Stats had a great run last GSL, he has shown no additional proof he can maintain that level and it wasn’t a one-off (like we have seen with many players over the years going deep in a single tournament and never reaching those heights again - Oliveira, Elazer, HeroMarine at IEMs for example and many examples of Code S runs like Creator and DRG more recently).
We can clearly see Cure and Dark are among the top 4-5 favorites, the rest of the group should be pretty clear underdogs despite historically having achieved a ton (these achievements were a long time ago now and pre-military). We have not seen a post-military player return to true championship form and win titles as of yet. If anyone can do it, it’s probably Rogue.. but it’s a bit too soon for that for this GSL.
On April 23 2024 21:25 onPHYRE wrote: While I agree that group C is probably the hardest on paper compared to the other 3 - I think people are overestimating by how much based on historical context.
By all accounts, Rogue is only back a few weeks and is not current at title contention level. He likely won’t make it out of the Ro16 barring some breaks going his way. Additionally, while Stats had a great run last GSL, he has shown no additional proof he can maintain that level and it wasn’t a one-off (like we have seen with many players over the years going deep in a single tournament and never reaching those heights again - Oliveira, Elazer, HeroMarine at IEMs for example and many examples of Code S runs like Creator and DRG more recently).
We can clearly see Cure and Dark are among the top 4-5 favorites, the rest of the group should be pretty clear underdogs despite historically having achieved a ton (these achievements were a long time ago now and pre-military). We have not seen a post-military player return to true championship form and win titles as of yet. If anyone can do it, it’s probably Rogue.. but it’s a bit too soon for that for this GSL.
You forget herO. But actually, it took a year for herO to claim the championship title after completing his military service.
By the way, I never see Rogue play ZvZ since coming back from military service, so I cannot tell whether he is still good in that matchup. His ZvP is very shaky while his ZvT looks decent.
On April 23 2024 21:25 onPHYRE wrote: While I agree that group C is probably the hardest on paper compared to the other 3 - I think people are overestimating by how much based on historical context.
By all accounts, Rogue is only back a few weeks and is not current at title contention level. He likely won’t make it out of the Ro16 barring some breaks going his way. Additionally, while Stats had a great run last GSL, he has shown no additional proof he can maintain that level and it wasn’t a one-off (like we have seen with many players over the years going deep in a single tournament and never reaching those heights again - Oliveira, Elazer, HeroMarine at IEMs for example and many examples of Code S runs like Creator and DRG more recently).
We can clearly see Cure and Dark are among the top 4-5 favorites, the rest of the group should be pretty clear underdogs despite historically having achieved a ton (these achievements were a long time ago now and pre-military). We have not seen a post-military player return to true championship form and win titles as of yet. If anyone can do it, it’s probably Rogue.. but it’s a bit too soon for that for this GSL.
You forget herO. But actually, it took a year for herO to claim the championship title after completing his military service.
By the way, I never see Rogue play ZvZ since coming back from military service, so I cannot tell whether he is still good in that matchup. His ZvP is very shaky while his ZvT looks decent.
Fwiw he beat reynor somewhat recently in an esl weekly I think, to then lose to solar
E: nope. Completely goofed on this. Was thinking of a different player. Rogue didn't beat reynor
On April 23 2024 10:20 Balnazza wrote: Thus my point that Top-shape Reynor is the favorite over Maru.
Well, top-shape Maru would probably trump top-shape Reynor, but the problem is Maru hasn't been in his real top shape since forever, 2021 or even 2018. Reynor hasn't been in his real monstrous top-shape since last summer, I think? So who knows, I guess we'll see.
On April 23 2024 21:25 onPHYRE wrote: While I agree that group C is probably the hardest on paper compared to the other 3 - I think people are overestimating by how much based on historical context.
By all accounts, Rogue is only back a few weeks and is not current at title contention level. He likely won’t make it out of the Ro16 barring some breaks going his way. Additionally, while Stats had a great run last GSL, he has shown no additional proof he can maintain that level and it wasn’t a one-off (like we have seen with many players over the years going deep in a single tournament and never reaching those heights again - Oliveira, Elazer, HeroMarine at IEMs for example and many examples of Code S runs like Creator and DRG more recently).
We can clearly see Cure and Dark are among the top 4-5 favorites, the rest of the group should be pretty clear underdogs despite historically having achieved a ton (these achievements were a long time ago now and pre-military). We have not seen a post-military player return to true championship form and win titles as of yet. If anyone can do it, it’s probably Rogue.. but it’s a bit too soon for that for this GSL.
You forget herO. But actually, it took a year for herO to claim the championship title after completing his military service.
By the way, I never see Rogue play ZvZ since coming back from military service, so I cannot tell whether he is still good in that matchup. His ZvP is very shaky while his ZvT looks decent.
Reynor said on stream that they met on ladder a few times and Rogue was decent (but not in top form). Reynor won the match(es) from what he implied, but I believe they all took place off stream.
He qualified off the back of his ZvT, so that makes sense. He beat TY and ByuN (probably one of the bigger upsets of day 1 as there were very few).
In the group stage results there is a lot of discussion about how underpowered Zerg is, but even then Reynor goes on the hype train taking out even the tournament favourite Maru, but in the semis Reynor is taken out by the final boss Rogue. Reynor is then crying on stream taking in a ton of donations, but abrupts the stream to go drink with PartinG. Rogue then meets Stats, who is the ultimate Protoss hope in the GSL, and in this battle of the returnees, Rogue kills Stats and takes the trophy. Later when interviewed by TL, he says Zerg is fcking OP and I dno what the other Zergs are on about.
On April 24 2024 18:18 ejozl wrote: Here is how this GSL will pan out:
In the group stage results there is a lot of discussion about how underpowered Zerg is, but even then Reynor goes on the hype train taking out even the tournament favourite Maru, but in the semis Reynor is taken out by the final boss Rogue. Reynor is then crying on stream taking in a ton of donations, but abrupts the stream to go drink with PartinG. Rogue then meets Stats, who is the ultimate Protoss hope in the GSL, and in this battle of the returnees, Rogue kills Stats and takes the trophy. Later when interviewed by TL, he says Zerg is fcking OP and I dno what the other Zergs are on about.
pls hire this person to write for TL. This is gold.
Rogue will only win if he finds some new unknown abusive strategy people won't have time to find a response too, this is how he wins tournaments.
Reynor has a really hard group he might actually not make it out of that group but he has a good as chance as anyone to get out.
If we have a bored Maru he might drop out in the first group, happens every time he is not inspired, I think the only motivation he might have lately is to solve Serral or money, pure speculation.
Dark and Reynor the only Zergs that can match the other top players in this tournament so if we get a Zerg winner it's most likely them but Reynor is in a tough group and Dark just became a father so Zerg hope is pretty weak this season
EPT
HerO(jOin)
