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Mizenhauer
United States1886 Posts
On April 19 2024 21:36 PtitDrogo wrote: Not quite sure how people can look at this list of players and think this isn't a super stacked tournament lol Common sense isn't a requirement for posting  | ||
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Telephone
United States142 Posts
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok. Was that enough sarcasm? | ||
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kennytennyson2
31 Posts
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CicadaSC
United States1768 Posts
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Yoshi Kirishima
United States10347 Posts
Serral Reynor Clem HeroMarine Showtime Scarlett (already has multiple times) Astrea (already has multiple times) Sure Serral lost to SHIN before. But Rogue lost to Scarlett, and Maru lost to Oliveira. Not sure there's a big difference there. Occasional upsets are normal, even Creator beating Maru before. Other examples of players that could qualify once in a while, similar to historically "fringe" players like Ryung or Nightmare (These players have many victories over GSL players in international tournaments): Wayne Skillous Kelazhur Harstem (maybe, he's on the come up and it seems like 2024 will be the year of Harstem) No bias here, just observing which GSL players have a hard time vs which EU/NA players from the tournies I watch, and which ones have been able to beat GSL players in international tournaments. GSL unfortunately is no longer clearly the top 10-15 players. I think it's only safe to say they have they have say, maybe 5 out of the 10 best players in the world, or 6 to be generous if we exclude Maxpax: Serral Reynor Clem HeroMarine + Maru Dark herO Cure Solar Gumiho (maybe Byun instead). Maybe KR has 8-9 of the best 15 players in the world cus then you can add in Oliveira and maybe Firefly for example. Yes KR does have a little more depth than EU/NA at that high tier range under the top tier (players like Creator, DRG, Bunny), but then it might fall off again if you go to the mid tier below that with EU/NA having much more competitors who can cause upsets occasionally (like Spirit beating Creator at Gamers8), whereas it seems the mid tier for KR is basically not there (GSL qualifiers only having like 20-25 people who try each season), maybe you can count players who struggle to qualify most of the time and get knocked out first round of GSL like sOs, TY, or soO as the mid tier (or good ole Keen who seems to finally have stopped, or maybe Rebellion who seems to be working very hard to qualify), but it seems there are very few active competitors in KR now unfortunately. | ||
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dbRic1203
Germany2655 Posts
On April 20 2024 05:43 Yoshi Kirishima wrote: Players from EU/NA that have, or would have a decent chance to qualify to a Ro16 GSL if they tried (and if they tried for multiple seasons like players living in KR do, they would probably qualify once in a while at least): Serral Reynor Clem HeroMarine Showtime Scarlett (already has multiple times) Astrea (already has multiple times) Sure Serral lost to SHIN before. But Rogue lost to Scarlett, and Maru lost to Oliveira. Not sure there's a big difference there. Occasional upsets are normal, even Creator beating Maru before. Other examples of players that could qualify once in a while, similar to historically "fringe" players like Ryung or Nightmare (These players have many victories over GSL players in international tournaments): Wayne Skillous Kelazhur Harstem (maybe, he's on the come up and it seems like 2024 will be the year of Harstem) No bias here, just observing which GSL players have a hard time vs which EU/NA players from the tournies I watch, and which ones have been able to beat GSL players in international tournaments. GSL unfortunately is no longer clearly the top 10-15 players. I think it's only safe to say they have they have say, maybe 5 out of the 10 best players in the world, or 6 to be generous if we exclude Maxpax: Serral Reynor Clem HeroMarine + Maru Dark herO Cure Solar Gumiho. Maybe KR has 8-9 of the best 15 players in the world cus then you can add in Oliveira and maybe Firefly for example. Yes KR does have a little more depth than EU/NA at that high tier range under the top tier (players like Creator, DRG, Bunny), but then it might fall off again if you go to the mid tier below that with EU/NA having much more competitors who can cause upsets occasionally (like Spirit beating Creator at Gamers8), whereas it seems the mid tier for KR is basically not there (GSL qualifiers only having like 20-25 people who try each season), maybe you can count players who struggle to qualify most of the time and get knocked out first round of GSL like sOs, TY, or soO as the mid tier. All of this is pretty much spot on in my book | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25613 Posts
Nowadays you’re missing a couple of foreigners who would enhance the championship contender side of the field, which is also smaller, and probably a handful who are equivalent in level to some of the Ro16 level players at worst and you could swap them around without denting the overall level. I don’t want to dwell too much on it as I’m still pumped for Code S, but it does feel that Korean SC2 was really left to wither, right at the time the foreign scene nailed the talent pipeline. Is just a shame we couldn’t have seen the rise of some top notch foreign talent into a scene where Kr wasn’t declining year-on-year | ||
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Woosixion
120 Posts
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johnnyh123
124 Posts
Sad to see Classic go though, Protoss underrepresented. | ||
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Locutos
Brazil268 Posts
On April 20 2024 02:15 Telephone wrote: You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away. Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok. Was that enough sarcasm? In any given tournament, Serral could. But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them. For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation. | ||
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lokol4890
114 Posts
On April 21 2024 06:01 Locutos wrote: In any given tournament, Serral could. But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them. For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation. Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25613 Posts
On April 21 2024 06:34 lokol4890 wrote: Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would In fairness Reynor made the Ro16 almost ahead of schedule, before he was even making a dent in WCS due to the age laws there. But his first round exit after he’d established himself as a top player does illustrate the perils of assuming things. For my money it’s almost inconceivable Serral post 2017 wouldn’t have won at least a couple. Not impossible, but unlikely. And even seasons he wouldn’t necessarily win himself, or even place super deep he could easily knock out a Maru in a Ro8 or w/e. Reynor, more streaky but when he’s on, he’s on. Probably takes home at least one. Again, not impossible he doesn’t. Clem for me is a little more hot and cold again. Plus unlike Serral and Maru he’s only relatively recently hit the level he’s at. I think he’d enhance the level of the tournament now for sure, but you can’t parachute him back in the same way. 2018 Clem isn’t 2018 Serral. I think the foreigners could pick up a handful, but I think their biggest impact would be in stopping Maru picking up quite so many titles as he has, especially now. Unless he has an off day there’s very few in this field who can beat Maru with any kind of consistency. Serral and Reynor can beat a Maru that is playing well and I think that alone would be a fun shakeup | ||
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Locutos
Brazil268 Posts
On April 21 2024 06:34 lokol4890 wrote: Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would Someone correct if i am wrong.... but i think that in All the times Serral has stepped in Korean soil to play a premier tournament, he has won it. Right? | ||
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JJH777
United States4408 Posts
On April 21 2024 06:49 WombaT wrote: In fairness Reynor made the Ro16 almost ahead of schedule, before he was even making a dent in WCS due to the age laws there. But his first round exit after he’d established himself as a top player does illustrate the perils of assuming things. For my money it’s almost inconceivable Serral post 2017 wouldn’t have won at least a couple. Not impossible, but unlikely. And even seasons he wouldn’t necessarily win himself, or even place super deep he could easily knock out a Maru in a Ro8 or w/e. Reynor, more streaky but when he’s on, he’s on. Probably takes home at least one. Again, not impossible he doesn’t. Clem for me is a little more hot and cold again. Plus unlike Serral and Maru he’s only relatively recently hit the level he’s at. I think he’d enhance the level of the tournament now for sure, but you can’t parachute him back in the same way. 2018 Clem isn’t 2018 Serral. I think the foreigners could pick up a handful, but I think their biggest impact would be in stopping Maru picking up quite so many titles as he has, especially now. Unless he has an off day there’s very few in this field who can beat Maru with any kind of consistency. Serral and Reynor can beat a Maru that is playing well and I think that alone would be a fun shakeup This is probably all true to some extent. Though I do think Maru in GSL would do better vs Serral/Reynor than Maru in internationals does against them (though he already does pretty dang well against Reynor). He does better vs most other players in GSL after all. Also, while Maru may win less GSLs in a hypothetical world where Serral plays in it regularly, Serral also has many hypotheticals that may have resulted in him winning a lot less events as well. What if region lock wasn't a thing at the dreamhacks from 2017-2019, what if HSC never had GSL conflicts and paid enough for all top Koreans to want to attend, what it Blizzcon didn't force half KR/half non-KR distribution, what if the online season finals didn't limit KR to 6 players etc. In my opinion a world where all top Koreans are at every single event besides regionals would decrease Serral's trophy count and money won a lot more than Serral/Reynor being in GSL would decrease Maru's. | ||
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onPHYRE
Bulgaria923 Posts
On April 22 2024 04:02 Locutos wrote: Someone correct if i am wrong.... but i think that in All the times Serral has stepped in Korean soil to play a premier tournament, he has won it. Right? Pretty much this.. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25613 Posts
On April 22 2024 04:59 JJH777 wrote: This is probably all true to some extent. Though I do think Maru in GSL would do better vs Serral/Reynor than Maru in internationals does against them (though he already does pretty dang well against Reynor). He does better vs most other players in GSL after all. Also, while Maru may win less GSLs in a hypothetical world where Serral plays in it regularly, Serral also has many hypotheticals that may have resulted in him winning a lot less events as well. What if region lock wasn't a thing at the dreamhacks from 2017-2019, what if HSC never had GSL conflicts and paid enough for all top Koreans to want to attend, what it Blizzcon didn't force half KR/half non-KR distribution, what if the online season finals didn't limit KR to 6 players etc. In my opinion a world where all top Koreans are at every single event besides regionals would decrease Serral's trophy count and money won a lot more than Serral/Reynor being in GSL would decrease Maru's. Almost certainly but that’s redoing the entire circuit for a hypothetical rather than one tournament. But yes that would have that effect. I’m less considering 4-peat Maru/quest to G5L Maru, and Maru after that, especially very recently. He’s quite possibly going to get the 2xG5L at this rate, and it’s pretty clear nobody can really beat him and it’s a bit meh when you have a guy with a 70%ish win rate against him, who smacked him in a WC final not competing. I don’t diminish the 4-peat at all, Maru ran a veritable gauntlet of players who, back then were all plenty capable of taking him down | ||
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rwala
297 Posts
On April 22 2024 04:02 Locutos wrote: Someone correct if i am wrong.... but i think that in All the times Serral has stepped in Korean soil to play a premier tournament, he has won it. Right? I think this perfectly encapsulates the misunderstanding of GSL (not trying to throw shade, it’s a very common misconception). GSL has not been the hardest tournament to win because it’s on Korean soil. It—along with some other former Koreign individual leagues—has been the hardest tournament to win because it was extremely hard to qualify for, extremely hard to advance out of the group stages, and extremely hard to prepare for. There are player pool, game structure, and tournament format dynamics at play here that are largely lost in the conversation unless you follow or play other competitive strategy games. GSL has definitely dropped off, but it is still an extremely competitive and difficult tournament to win, and anyone who thinks any player is guaranteed a win in any number of attempts is wishfully thinking. | ||
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Yoshi Kirishima
United States10347 Posts
 Global StarCraft II League/2024/Season 2Groups are out! Group A: Creator has a good chance to make it out if he can beat SHIN. Would be embarassing to lose to TY. Group B: Reynor will probably make it out over Gumiho. Could be a hype match vs herO too. Group C: Holy crap Rogue Dark Stats Cure, group of death easily. Group D: Anyone has a good chance to make it out, though Solar Byun are a little favored. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany6944 Posts
On April 22 2024 20:00 Yoshi Kirishima wrote: Global StarCraft II League/2024/Season 2Groups are out! Group A: Creator has a good chance to make it out if he can beat SHIN. Would be embarassing to lose to TY. Group B: Reynor will probably make it out over Gumiho. Could be a hype match vs herO too. Group C: Holy crap Rogue Dark Stats Cure, group of death easily. Group D: Anyone has a good chance to make it out, though Solar Byun are a little favored. A: Maru, Shin B: herO, Reynor C: Cure, NO IDEA D: Solar, Byun | ||
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tigera6
3410 Posts
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