The Code S Season 2 qualifiers were held on April 18th, deciding the 12 players to join the competition alongside the four seeded players from Season 1.
Three former IEM World Champions rejoined Code S through the qualifiers. Rogue successfully claimed a spot in his first qualification attempt after completing his military service, while Italy's Reynor made his trip to Korea worthwhile by earning a Code S seat for the first time since Season 3 of 2022. TY—who missed out on the previous two seasons of Code S while qualifying for Brood War's ASL17—also made his return.
Sad to see Classic not playing. Hopefully he can still qualify for the Esports World Cup (he should considering the standings) but this is especially rough for Bunny
On April 19 2024 01:56 ZAWGURN wrote: Sad to see Classic not playing. Hopefully he can still qualify for the Esports World Cup (he should considering the standings) but this is especially rough for Bunny
What do you mean "considering the standings"? He is already 800 points behind Solar and 1100 behind GuMiho. Only two players qualify through korean standings
On April 19 2024 01:56 ZAWGURN wrote: Sad to see Classic not playing. Hopefully he can still qualify for the Esports World Cup (he should considering the standings) but this is especially rough for Bunny
What do you mean "considering the standings"? He is already 800 points behind Solar and 1100 behind GuMiho. Only two players qualify through korean standings
Spots that would be given to someone who already qualified goes to global standings. I’m assuming that there will be enough spots going to the Global standings.
On April 19 2024 13:55 Swash91 wrote: I don't think Code S top 16 is the highest level anymore..
Minus 3 players, 1 who hasnt played a single offline tournament and 1 who is in military service, this code S probably have all the top 15 players in the world, outside of IEM/EWC, which tournament has higher level?
On April 19 2024 13:55 Swash91 wrote: I don't think Code S top 16 is the highest level anymore..
Minus 3 players, 1 who hasnt played a single offline tournament and 1 who is in military service, this code S probably have all the top 15 players in the world, outside of IEM/EWC, which tournament has higher level?
We almost never see the Koreans outside top 6 play the EU outside top 4 so it's kinda hard to situate but I do believe if players like HeroMarine and Showtime for example tried GSL they would at least qualify
Was it really only 26 Players in the whole Qualifier as stated on Liquipedia? I never noticed only so few players participate, but looking up the previous season had only 23 participants on the Qualifier?
On April 19 2024 13:55 Swash91 wrote: I don't think Code S top 16 is the highest level anymore..
Minus 3 players, 1 who hasnt played a single offline tournament and 1 who is in military service, this code S probably have all the top 15 players in the world, outside of IEM/EWC, which tournament has higher level?
Your statement really means nothing. Nowadays korean scene is below the EU one and you know it. The korean top 5 can fight eyes in eyes with top EU players but the others korean players not. Already we saw koreans who have returned from military service don't play so well anymore. They can't stand comparison with EU pros as Clem or Reynor who play every single day. TY's return in Code S shows pretty well the korean scene state. Even if I love TY, and I am pretty happy to see him back, recently he told he lets sc2 down for BW, anyway he succeeded GSL qualifier. Worrying sign for the korean scene.
On April 19 2024 13:55 Swash91 wrote: I don't think Code S top 16 is the highest level anymore..
Minus 3 players, 1 who hasnt played a single offline tournament and 1 who is in military service, this code S probably have all the top 15 players in the world, outside of IEM/EWC, which tournament has higher level?
Your statement really means nothing. Nowadays korean scene is below the EU one and you know it. The korean top 5 can fight eyes in eyes with top EU players but the others korean players not. Already we saw koreans who have returned from military service don't play so well anymore. They can't stand comparison with EU pros as Clem or Reynor who play every single day. TY's return in Code S shows pretty well the korean scene state. Even if I love TY, and I am pretty happy to see him back, recently he told he lets sc2 down for BW, anyway he succeeded GSL qualifier. Worrying sign for the korean scene.
This Take is wild, yes korean Scene has declined, yes i'd say this Tournament doesnt have the highest Level anymore but If you Look below the top 5 korea still has better Players than EU/NA.
On April 19 2024 13:55 Swash91 wrote: I don't think Code S top 16 is the highest level anymore..
Minus 3 players, 1 who hasnt played a single offline tournament and 1 who is in military service, this code S probably have all the top 15 players in the world, outside of IEM/EWC, which tournament has higher level?
Your statement really means nothing. Nowadays korean scene is below the EU one and you know it. The korean top 5 can fight eyes in eyes with top EU players but the others korean players not. Already we saw koreans who have returned from military service don't play so well anymore. They can't stand comparison with EU pros as Clem or Reynor who play every single day. TY's return in Code S shows pretty well the korean scene state. Even if I love TY, and I am pretty happy to see him back, recently he told he lets sc2 down for BW, anyway he succeeded GSL qualifier. Worrying sign for the korean scene.
This Take is wild, yes korean Scene has declined, yes i'd say this Tournament doesnt have the highest Level anymore but If you Look below the top 5 korea still has better Players than EU/NA.
Kr is still stronger yeah, EU > Kr is a rather premature claim although I think if SC2 continued for another 5 years that eventually would be the case. Aside from the holy trinity I think the next level down, Heromarine, Showtime or a hypothetical offline MaxPax are probably better than a handful of the Ro16. Either just outright better than a Nightmare, or better than the current incarnations of TY or soO, albeit those players at their peak are obviously better
Shame the likes of Classic and Bunny didn’t make it for this one, especially if it’s to be the last as rumoured!
What happened with those guys? From what I’ve seen so far from post-military soO, TY and others they’re not quite in the same shape. Bad bracket or just a bad performance?
You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away.
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok.
I wonder if the groups will be made randomly or drawn. I would prefer a draw and see how the players would banter, especially with Reynor there spicing things up
Players from EU/NA that have, or would have a decent chance to qualify to a Ro16 GSL if they tried (and if they tried for multiple seasons like players living in KR do, they would probably qualify once in a while at least):
Serral Reynor Clem HeroMarine Showtime Scarlett (already has multiple times) Astrea (already has multiple times)
Sure Serral lost to SHIN before. But Rogue lost to Scarlett, and Maru lost to Oliveira. Not sure there's a big difference there. Occasional upsets are normal, even Creator beating Maru before.
Other examples of players that could qualify once in a while, similar to historically "fringe" players like Ryung or Nightmare (These players have many victories over GSL players in international tournaments): Wayne Skillous Kelazhur Harstem (maybe, he's on the come up and it seems like 2024 will be the year of Harstem)
No bias here, just observing which GSL players have a hard time vs which EU/NA players from the tournies I watch, and which ones have been able to beat GSL players in international tournaments.
GSL unfortunately is no longer clearly the top 10-15 players. I think it's only safe to say they have they have say, maybe 5 out of the 10 best players in the world, or 6 to be generous if we exclude Maxpax: Serral Reynor Clem HeroMarine + Maru Dark herO Cure Solar Gumiho (maybe Byun instead).
Maybe KR has 8-9 of the best 15 players in the world cus then you can add in Oliveira and maybe Firefly for example. Yes KR does have a little more depth than EU/NA at that high tier range under the top tier (players like Creator, DRG, Bunny), but then it might fall off again if you go to the mid tier below that with EU/NA having much more competitors who can cause upsets occasionally (like Spirit beating Creator at Gamers8), whereas it seems the mid tier for KR is basically not there (GSL qualifiers only having like 20-25 people who try each season), maybe you can count players who struggle to qualify most of the time and get knocked out first round of GSL like sOs, TY, or soO as the mid tier (or good ole Keen who seems to finally have stopped, or maybe Rebellion who seems to be working very hard to qualify), but it seems there are very few active competitors in KR now unfortunately.
On April 20 2024 05:43 Yoshi Kirishima wrote: Players from EU/NA that have, or would have a decent chance to qualify to a Ro16 GSL if they tried (and if they tried for multiple seasons like players living in KR do, they would probably qualify once in a while at least):
Serral Reynor Clem HeroMarine Showtime Scarlett (already has multiple times) Astrea (already has multiple times)
Sure Serral lost to SHIN before. But Rogue lost to Scarlett, and Maru lost to Oliveira. Not sure there's a big difference there. Occasional upsets are normal, even Creator beating Maru before.
Other examples of players that could qualify once in a while, similar to historically "fringe" players like Ryung or Nightmare (These players have many victories over GSL players in international tournaments): Wayne Skillous Kelazhur Harstem (maybe, he's on the come up and it seems like 2024 will be the year of Harstem)
No bias here, just observing which GSL players have a hard time vs which EU/NA players from the tournies I watch, and which ones have been able to beat GSL players in international tournaments.
GSL unfortunately is no longer clearly the top 10-15 players. I think it's only safe to say they have they have say, maybe 5 out of the 10 best players in the world, or 6 to be generous if we exclude Maxpax: Serral Reynor Clem HeroMarine + Maru Dark herO Cure Solar Gumiho. Maybe KR has 8-9 of the best 15 players in the world cus then you can add in Oliveira and maybe Firefly for example. Yes KR does have a little more depth than EU/NA at that high tier range under the top tier (players like Creator, DRG, Bunny), but then it might fall off again if you go to the mid tier below that with EU/NA having much more competitors who can cause upsets occasionally (like Spirit beating Creator at Gamers8), whereas it seems the mid tier for KR is basically not there (GSL qualifiers only having like 20-25 people who try each season), maybe you can count players who struggle to qualify most of the time and get knocked out first round of GSL like sOs, TY, or soO as the mid tier.
Aye there was a time where if you took the best 50 players in the world, maybe a handful, if even that were non-Korean. Too many to even fit into a Ro32, and we frequently saw big names, even champions fall out in qualifying.
Nowadays you’re missing a couple of foreigners who would enhance the championship contender side of the field, which is also smaller, and probably a handful who are equivalent in level to some of the Ro16 level players at worst and you could swap them around without denting the overall level.
I don’t want to dwell too much on it as I’m still pumped for Code S, but it does feel that Korean SC2 was really left to wither, right at the time the foreign scene nailed the talent pipeline.
Is just a shame we couldn’t have seen the rise of some top notch foreign talent into a scene where Kr wasn’t declining year-on-year
On April 20 2024 02:15 Telephone wrote: You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away.
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok.
Was that enough sarcasm?
In any given tournament, Serral could.
But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them.
For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation.
On April 20 2024 02:15 Telephone wrote: You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away.
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok.
Was that enough sarcasm?
In any given tournament, Serral could.
But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them.
For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation.
Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would
On April 20 2024 02:15 Telephone wrote: You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away.
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok.
Was that enough sarcasm?
In any given tournament, Serral could.
But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them.
For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation.
Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would
In fairness Reynor made the Ro16 almost ahead of schedule, before he was even making a dent in WCS due to the age laws there. But his first round exit after he’d established himself as a top player does illustrate the perils of assuming things.
For my money it’s almost inconceivable Serral post 2017 wouldn’t have won at least a couple. Not impossible, but unlikely. And even seasons he wouldn’t necessarily win himself, or even place super deep he could easily knock out a Maru in a Ro8 or w/e.
Reynor, more streaky but when he’s on, he’s on. Probably takes home at least one. Again, not impossible he doesn’t.
Clem for me is a little more hot and cold again. Plus unlike Serral and Maru he’s only relatively recently hit the level he’s at. I think he’d enhance the level of the tournament now for sure, but you can’t parachute him back in the same way. 2018 Clem isn’t 2018 Serral.
I think the foreigners could pick up a handful, but I think their biggest impact would be in stopping Maru picking up quite so many titles as he has, especially now. Unless he has an off day there’s very few in this field who can beat Maru with any kind of consistency. Serral and Reynor can beat a Maru that is playing well and I think that alone would be a fun shakeup
On April 20 2024 02:15 Telephone wrote: You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away.
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok.
Was that enough sarcasm?
In any given tournament, Serral could.
But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them.
For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation.
Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would
Someone correct if i am wrong.... but i think that in All the times Serral has stepped in Korean soil to play a premier tournament, he has won it.
On April 20 2024 02:15 Telephone wrote: You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away.
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok.
Was that enough sarcasm?
In any given tournament, Serral could.
But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them.
For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation.
Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would
In fairness Reynor made the Ro16 almost ahead of schedule, before he was even making a dent in WCS due to the age laws there. But his first round exit after he’d established himself as a top player does illustrate the perils of assuming things.
For my money it’s almost inconceivable Serral post 2017 wouldn’t have won at least a couple. Not impossible, but unlikely. And even seasons he wouldn’t necessarily win himself, or even place super deep he could easily knock out a Maru in a Ro8 or w/e.
Reynor, more streaky but when he’s on, he’s on. Probably takes home at least one. Again, not impossible he doesn’t.
Clem for me is a little more hot and cold again. Plus unlike Serral and Maru he’s only relatively recently hit the level he’s at. I think he’d enhance the level of the tournament now for sure, but you can’t parachute him back in the same way. 2018 Clem isn’t 2018 Serral.
I think the foreigners could pick up a handful, but I think their biggest impact would be in stopping Maru picking up quite so many titles as he has, especially now. Unless he has an off day there’s very few in this field who can beat Maru with any kind of consistency. Serral and Reynor can beat a Maru that is playing well and I think that alone would be a fun shakeup
This is probably all true to some extent. Though I do think Maru in GSL would do better vs Serral/Reynor than Maru in internationals does against them (though he already does pretty dang well against Reynor). He does better vs most other players in GSL after all.
Also, while Maru may win less GSLs in a hypothetical world where Serral plays in it regularly, Serral also has many hypotheticals that may have resulted in him winning a lot less events as well. What if region lock wasn't a thing at the dreamhacks from 2017-2019, what if HSC never had GSL conflicts and paid enough for all top Koreans to want to attend, what it Blizzcon didn't force half KR/half non-KR distribution, what if the online season finals didn't limit KR to 6 players etc. In my opinion a world where all top Koreans are at every single event besides regionals would decrease Serral's trophy count and money won a lot more than Serral/Reynor being in GSL would decrease Maru's.
On April 20 2024 02:15 Telephone wrote: You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away.
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok.
Was that enough sarcasm?
In any given tournament, Serral could.
But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them.
For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation.
Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would
Someone correct if i am wrong.... but i think that in All the times Serral has stepped in Korean soil to play a premier tournament, he has won it.
On April 20 2024 02:15 Telephone wrote: You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away.
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok.
Was that enough sarcasm?
In any given tournament, Serral could.
But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them.
For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation.
Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would
In fairness Reynor made the Ro16 almost ahead of schedule, before he was even making a dent in WCS due to the age laws there. But his first round exit after he’d established himself as a top player does illustrate the perils of assuming things.
For my money it’s almost inconceivable Serral post 2017 wouldn’t have won at least a couple. Not impossible, but unlikely. And even seasons he wouldn’t necessarily win himself, or even place super deep he could easily knock out a Maru in a Ro8 or w/e.
Reynor, more streaky but when he’s on, he’s on. Probably takes home at least one. Again, not impossible he doesn’t.
Clem for me is a little more hot and cold again. Plus unlike Serral and Maru he’s only relatively recently hit the level he’s at. I think he’d enhance the level of the tournament now for sure, but you can’t parachute him back in the same way. 2018 Clem isn’t 2018 Serral.
I think the foreigners could pick up a handful, but I think their biggest impact would be in stopping Maru picking up quite so many titles as he has, especially now. Unless he has an off day there’s very few in this field who can beat Maru with any kind of consistency. Serral and Reynor can beat a Maru that is playing well and I think that alone would be a fun shakeup
This is probably all true to some extent. Though I do think Maru in GSL would do better vs Serral/Reynor than Maru in internationals does against them (though he already does pretty dang well against Reynor). He does better vs most other players in GSL after all.
Also, while Maru may win less GSLs in a hypothetical world where Serral plays in it regularly, Serral also has many hypotheticals that may have resulted in him winning a lot less events as well. What if region lock wasn't a thing at the dreamhacks from 2017-2019, what if HSC never had GSL conflicts and paid enough for all top Koreans to want to attend, what it Blizzcon didn't force half KR/half non-KR distribution, what if the online season finals didn't limit KR to 6 players etc. In my opinion a world where all top Koreans are at every single event besides regionals would decrease Serral's trophy count and money won a lot more than Serral/Reynor being in GSL would decrease Maru's.
Almost certainly but that’s redoing the entire circuit for a hypothetical rather than one tournament. But yes that would have that effect.
I’m less considering 4-peat Maru/quest to G5L Maru, and Maru after that, especially very recently. He’s quite possibly going to get the 2xG5L at this rate, and it’s pretty clear nobody can really beat him and it’s a bit meh when you have a guy with a 70%ish win rate against him, who smacked him in a WC final not competing.
I don’t diminish the 4-peat at all, Maru ran a veritable gauntlet of players who, back then were all plenty capable of taking him down
On April 20 2024 02:15 Telephone wrote: You guys are totally right, the EU regional is obviously more prestigious and important. Classic and Bunny don't stand a chance against the likes of Harstem and Krystianer, who made it into the ro16 right away.
Depth of a tournament doesn't matter either, it's not like Serral could ever lose in the round of 8 to a player like Ragnarok.
Was that enough sarcasm?
In any given tournament, Serral could.
But for the span of several a year, and across some 20 in the last 6 years... imagine how many Serral, Reynor and Clem would have won, had they participated in all of them.
For that, just estrapolate the premier internationals that they won, with top korean participation.
Serral maybe, but we'll never know because he never participated. Reynor has participated twice and lost both times. And clem won one premier event with top korean participation. I don't think the trifecta would do as well as you think they would
Someone correct if i am wrong.... but i think that in All the times Serral has stepped in Korean soil to play a premier tournament, he has won it.
Right?
I think this perfectly encapsulates the misunderstanding of GSL (not trying to throw shade, it’s a very common misconception). GSL has not been the hardest tournament to win because it’s on Korean soil. It—along with some other former Koreign individual leagues—has been the hardest tournament to win because it was extremely hard to qualify for, extremely hard to advance out of the group stages, and extremely hard to prepare for. There are player pool, game structure, and tournament format dynamics at play here that are largely lost in the conversation unless you follow or play other competitive strategy games. GSL has definitely dropped off, but it is still an extremely competitive and difficult tournament to win, and anyone who thinks any player is guaranteed a win in any number of attempts is wishfully thinking.
Group A: Creator has a good chance to make it out if he can beat SHIN. Would be embarassing to lose to TY. Group B: Reynor will probably make it out over Gumiho. Could be a hype match vs herO too. Group C: Holy crap Rogue Dark Stats Cure, group of death easily. Group D: Anyone has a good chance to make it out, though Solar Byun are a little favored.
Group A: Creator has a good chance to make it out if he can beat SHIN. Would be embarassing to lose to TY. Group B: Reynor will probably make it out over Gumiho. Could be a hype match vs herO too. Group C: Holy crap Rogue Dark Stats Cure, group of death easily. Group D: Anyone has a good chance to make it out, though Solar Byun are a little favored.
A: Maru, Shin B: herO, Reynor C: Cure, NO IDEA D: Solar, Byun
On April 22 2024 21:01 tigera6 wrote: So if the order they show in the post is the same as the draft order, why the HELL did herO pick Reynor first.
Do GSL still has the group nomination like before?
They did last season IIRC, they had the players on webcams and they recorded it and edited it into a vid that they played during GSL breaks
I am thinking that Maru, the holder right of first seed swaps Reynor with the one in his group if swapping is allowed too.
In this scenario who would've picked reynor in group A?
One of TY or Creator? It is also possible for herO to choose Shin/Ragnarok after the latter's inconsistencies in ZvP. Shin got demolished 4-0 by Stats during the previous season. It is also possible the swapping doesn't happen as Maru is fully satisfied with all members in his group.
Disclaimer: This claim may be true if the swapping is still allowed, otherwise just like the normal group nomination.
On April 22 2024 21:01 tigera6 wrote: So if the order they show in the post is the same as the draft order, why the HELL did herO pick Reynor first.
Do GSL still has the group nomination like before?
They did last season IIRC, they had the players on webcams and they recorded it and edited it into a vid that they played during GSL breaks
I am thinking that Maru, the holder right of first seed swaps Reynor with the one in his group if swapping is allowed too.
In this scenario who would've picked reynor in group A?
One of TY or Creator? It is also possible for herO to choose Shin/Ragnarok after the latter's inconsistencies in ZvP. Shin got demolished 4-0 by Stats during the previous season. It is also possible the swapping doesn't happen as Maru is fully satisfied with all members in his group.
Disclaimer: This claim may be true if the swapping is still allowed, otherwise just like the normal group nomination.
Re: Group B, soO told me how the picks went. herO > Reynor > soO > GuMiho. The picture of the groups accurately displays the order in which the players were chosen.
Looks like we get some really balanced groups, Group D seems a bit easier than the others, and damn look at Group C!
1. Dark advances in first place if Cure beats Rogue. 2. Rogue advances in first place if he beats both Cure and Dark. 3. Stats advances in first place if he beats both Dark and Rogue. 4. Cure advances in first place if he beats both Rogue and Stats.
1-2 scenario is 50-50, while no.3 scenario is likely to happen compared to no.4 as Stats may no longer has trouble facing Zerg players so he may survive in first place.
On April 22 2024 21:01 tigera6 wrote: So if the order they show in the post is the same as the draft order, why the HELL did herO pick Reynor first.
Do GSL still has the group nomination like before?
They did last season IIRC, they had the players on webcams and they recorded it and edited it into a vid that they played during GSL breaks
I am thinking that Maru, the holder right of first seed swaps Reynor with the one in his group if swapping is allowed too.
In this scenario who would've picked reynor in group A?
One of TY or Creator? It is also possible for herO to choose Shin/Ragnarok after the latter's inconsistencies in ZvP. Shin got demolished 4-0 by Stats during the previous season. It is also possible the swapping doesn't happen as Maru is fully satisfied with all members in his group.
Disclaimer: This claim may be true if the swapping is still allowed, otherwise just like the normal group nomination.
Re: Group B, soO told me how the picks went. herO > Reynor > soO > GuMiho. The picture of the groups accurately displays the order in which the players were chosen.
On April 22 2024 21:01 tigera6 wrote: So if the order they show in the post is the same as the draft order, why the HELL did herO pick Reynor first.
Do GSL still has the group nomination like before?
They did last season IIRC, they had the players on webcams and they recorded it and edited it into a vid that they played during GSL breaks
I am thinking that Maru, the holder right of first seed swaps Reynor with the one in his group if swapping is allowed too.
In this scenario who would've picked reynor in group A?
One of TY or Creator? It is also possible for herO to choose Shin/Ragnarok after the latter's inconsistencies in ZvP. Shin got demolished 4-0 by Stats during the previous season. It is also possible the swapping doesn't happen as Maru is fully satisfied with all members in his group.
Disclaimer: This claim may be true if the swapping is still allowed, otherwise just like the normal group nomination.
Re: Group B, soO told me how the picks went. herO > Reynor > soO > GuMiho. The picture of the groups accurately displays the order in which the players were chosen.
Wow that's shocking. I assumed that had to be some type of swap shenanigans. Picking Reynor over guys like soO, DRG, Nightmare is very bold. Hopefully it doesn't backfire on him.
On April 22 2024 21:01 tigera6 wrote: So if the order they show in the post is the same as the draft order, why the HELL did herO pick Reynor first.
Do GSL still has the group nomination like before?
They did last season IIRC, they had the players on webcams and they recorded it and edited it into a vid that they played during GSL breaks
I am thinking that Maru, the holder right of first seed swaps Reynor with the one in his group if swapping is allowed too.
In this scenario who would've picked reynor in group A?
One of TY or Creator? It is also possible for herO to choose Shin/Ragnarok after the latter's inconsistencies in ZvP. Shin got demolished 4-0 by Stats during the previous season. It is also possible the swapping doesn't happen as Maru is fully satisfied with all members in his group.
Disclaimer: This claim may be true if the swapping is still allowed, otherwise just like the normal group nomination.
Re: Group B, soO told me how the picks went. herO > Reynor > soO > GuMiho. The picture of the groups accurately displays the order in which the players were chosen.
Wow that's shocking. I assumed that had to be some type of swap shenanigans. Picking Reynor over guys like soO, DRG, Nightmare is very bold. Hopefully it doesn't backfire on him.
Predicting these groups is very tough for me. Group A is Maru, TY and 2 players I don't trust. Shin has a tendency for doing very well early in tournaments and falling apart later, while Creator always has a tendency to show up strong in the qualifiers and then fall apart in the tournament, while TY is a player I do trust but is just coming back from the military. Maru has a tendency to show poor performances immediately following a deep tournament run. So by this logic Group A is wide open but Maru should still be favored to take first place. I'll probably kick myself for saying it now but I'll give Shin the benefit of the doubt over the other two for taking second place.
Group B on paper SHOULD be herO and Reynor if I judge them based on their theoretical top levels, but I haven't seen much from Reynor to make me think he has been in top form in 2024. While soO and Gumiho have lower peaks than these two they also seem to have more consistent averages and on a bad day from herO or Reynor they are both more than capable of knocking them out in a best of 3 series. So this group is also wide open and it all depends on what kind of form herO and Reynor bring with them to the first round. I'll probably liquibet on them bringing their A games and taking the group.
Group C is a legit Group of Death with Cure, Dark and Stats all being very strong matches for each other and Rogue being the wildcard. Rogue has the highest theoretical peak of these 4 players IMO but he's just returning from the military so the safe bet is to assume he isn't anywhere near his top level just yet. If we assume Rogue isn't in top form, I think it's safe to consider Cure and Stats much safer bets especially with both of them just coming off Ro4 performances in Season 1.
Group D I think is the easiest of the 4 groups with Solar and Byun being the stronger 2 players here. DRG hasn't looked very strong in previous seasons, especially in ZvZ and Nightmare like Creator always seems to play his best in the qualifiers and then fall apart in the group stages. I trust Solar and Byun to advance out of this group.
On April 23 2024 05:43 Poopi wrote: No way Maru wins another GSL. Probably Reynor winning it all since no Serral
Maru just seems like such an overwhelming favorite against nearly everyone, and then a pretty reasonable favorite against hero/dark. Probably at least 50/50 against Reynor if not more.
On April 23 2024 05:43 Poopi wrote: No way Maru wins another GSL. Probably Reynor winning it all since no Serral
Maru just seems like such an overwhelming favorite against nearly everyone, and then a pretty reasonable favorite against hero/dark. Probably at least 50/50 against Reynor if not more.
Mostly depends who shows up. 2024 Reynor seems less than 50/50. Top-shape Reynor is like 70/30 easily
On April 23 2024 05:43 Poopi wrote: No way Maru wins another GSL. Probably Reynor winning it all since no Serral
Maru just seems like such an overwhelming favorite against nearly everyone, and then a pretty reasonable favorite against hero/dark. Probably at least 50/50 against Reynor if not more.
Mostly depends who shows up. 2024 Reynor seems less than 50/50. Top-shape Reynor is like 70/30 easily
Funny considering Maru has an almost 70% series winrate against him and most of the series he lost were online with high ping in the middle of the night in KR...
On April 23 2024 05:43 Poopi wrote: No way Maru wins another GSL. Probably Reynor winning it all since no Serral
Maru just seems like such an overwhelming favorite against nearly everyone, and then a pretty reasonable favorite against hero/dark. Probably at least 50/50 against Reynor if not more.
Yeah it depends on form of the day but Maru is accustomed to GSL so he should be favorite However he won so many of them I doubt he would care that much, whereas Reynor has one last shot to win it and is pretty mad that Maru got #1 on the goat list Reynor has to defend that foreign scene is not useless while Maru has to win yet another weak GSL, so Reynor should be more motivated
On April 23 2024 05:43 Poopi wrote: No way Maru wins another GSL. Probably Reynor winning it all since no Serral
Maru just seems like such an overwhelming favorite against nearly everyone, and then a pretty reasonable favorite against hero/dark. Probably at least 50/50 against Reynor if not more.
Mostly depends who shows up. 2024 Reynor seems less than 50/50. Top-shape Reynor is like 70/30 easily
Funny considering Maru has an almost 70% series winrate against him and most of the series he lost were online with high ping in the middle of the night in KR...
Whenever Reynor wins a series vs. Maru, it results in him either winning the tournament or losing to the actual winner (usually Serral). But he always placed atleast Top 4. Thus my point that Top-shape Reynor is the favorite over Maru. But top-shape Reynor showing up is an entirely different discussion. But just in case you should definetly ramp up your copium. Because as we all know, never has a foreigner won a fair series against a korean - not even when it is offline in Korea
On April 23 2024 05:43 Poopi wrote: No way Maru wins another GSL. Probably Reynor winning it all since no Serral
Maru just seems like such an overwhelming favorite against nearly everyone, and then a pretty reasonable favorite against hero/dark. Probably at least 50/50 against Reynor if not more.
Mostly depends who shows up. 2024 Reynor seems less than 50/50. Top-shape Reynor is like 70/30 easily
Funny considering Maru has an almost 70% series winrate against him and most of the series he lost were online with high ping in the middle of the night in KR...
Offline tournaments after Covid they are pretty even no? I think it's Reynor 2:3 Maru in offline matches and 7:10 im maps
While I agree that group C is probably the hardest on paper compared to the other 3 - I think people are overestimating by how much based on historical context.
By all accounts, Rogue is only back a few weeks and is not current at title contention level. He likely won’t make it out of the Ro16 barring some breaks going his way. Additionally, while Stats had a great run last GSL, he has shown no additional proof he can maintain that level and it wasn’t a one-off (like we have seen with many players over the years going deep in a single tournament and never reaching those heights again - Oliveira, Elazer, HeroMarine at IEMs for example and many examples of Code S runs like Creator and DRG more recently).
We can clearly see Cure and Dark are among the top 4-5 favorites, the rest of the group should be pretty clear underdogs despite historically having achieved a ton (these achievements were a long time ago now and pre-military). We have not seen a post-military player return to true championship form and win titles as of yet. If anyone can do it, it’s probably Rogue.. but it’s a bit too soon for that for this GSL.
On April 23 2024 21:25 onPHYRE wrote: While I agree that group C is probably the hardest on paper compared to the other 3 - I think people are overestimating by how much based on historical context.
By all accounts, Rogue is only back a few weeks and is not current at title contention level. He likely won’t make it out of the Ro16 barring some breaks going his way. Additionally, while Stats had a great run last GSL, he has shown no additional proof he can maintain that level and it wasn’t a one-off (like we have seen with many players over the years going deep in a single tournament and never reaching those heights again - Oliveira, Elazer, HeroMarine at IEMs for example and many examples of Code S runs like Creator and DRG more recently).
We can clearly see Cure and Dark are among the top 4-5 favorites, the rest of the group should be pretty clear underdogs despite historically having achieved a ton (these achievements were a long time ago now and pre-military). We have not seen a post-military player return to true championship form and win titles as of yet. If anyone can do it, it’s probably Rogue.. but it’s a bit too soon for that for this GSL.
You forget herO. But actually, it took a year for herO to claim the championship title after completing his military service.
By the way, I never see Rogue play ZvZ since coming back from military service, so I cannot tell whether he is still good in that matchup. His ZvP is very shaky while his ZvT looks decent.
On April 23 2024 21:25 onPHYRE wrote: While I agree that group C is probably the hardest on paper compared to the other 3 - I think people are overestimating by how much based on historical context.
By all accounts, Rogue is only back a few weeks and is not current at title contention level. He likely won’t make it out of the Ro16 barring some breaks going his way. Additionally, while Stats had a great run last GSL, he has shown no additional proof he can maintain that level and it wasn’t a one-off (like we have seen with many players over the years going deep in a single tournament and never reaching those heights again - Oliveira, Elazer, HeroMarine at IEMs for example and many examples of Code S runs like Creator and DRG more recently).
We can clearly see Cure and Dark are among the top 4-5 favorites, the rest of the group should be pretty clear underdogs despite historically having achieved a ton (these achievements were a long time ago now and pre-military). We have not seen a post-military player return to true championship form and win titles as of yet. If anyone can do it, it’s probably Rogue.. but it’s a bit too soon for that for this GSL.
You forget herO. But actually, it took a year for herO to claim the championship title after completing his military service.
By the way, I never see Rogue play ZvZ since coming back from military service, so I cannot tell whether he is still good in that matchup. His ZvP is very shaky while his ZvT looks decent.
Fwiw he beat reynor somewhat recently in an esl weekly I think, to then lose to solar
E: nope. Completely goofed on this. Was thinking of a different player. Rogue didn't beat reynor
On April 23 2024 10:20 Balnazza wrote: Thus my point that Top-shape Reynor is the favorite over Maru.
Well, top-shape Maru would probably trump top-shape Reynor, but the problem is Maru hasn't been in his real top shape since forever, 2021 or even 2018. Reynor hasn't been in his real monstrous top-shape since last summer, I think? So who knows, I guess we'll see.
On April 23 2024 21:25 onPHYRE wrote: While I agree that group C is probably the hardest on paper compared to the other 3 - I think people are overestimating by how much based on historical context.
By all accounts, Rogue is only back a few weeks and is not current at title contention level. He likely won’t make it out of the Ro16 barring some breaks going his way. Additionally, while Stats had a great run last GSL, he has shown no additional proof he can maintain that level and it wasn’t a one-off (like we have seen with many players over the years going deep in a single tournament and never reaching those heights again - Oliveira, Elazer, HeroMarine at IEMs for example and many examples of Code S runs like Creator and DRG more recently).
We can clearly see Cure and Dark are among the top 4-5 favorites, the rest of the group should be pretty clear underdogs despite historically having achieved a ton (these achievements were a long time ago now and pre-military). We have not seen a post-military player return to true championship form and win titles as of yet. If anyone can do it, it’s probably Rogue.. but it’s a bit too soon for that for this GSL.
You forget herO. But actually, it took a year for herO to claim the championship title after completing his military service.
By the way, I never see Rogue play ZvZ since coming back from military service, so I cannot tell whether he is still good in that matchup. His ZvP is very shaky while his ZvT looks decent.
Reynor said on stream that they met on ladder a few times and Rogue was decent (but not in top form). Reynor won the match(es) from what he implied, but I believe they all took place off stream.
He qualified off the back of his ZvT, so that makes sense. He beat TY and ByuN (probably one of the bigger upsets of day 1 as there were very few).
In the group stage results there is a lot of discussion about how underpowered Zerg is, but even then Reynor goes on the hype train taking out even the tournament favourite Maru, but in the semis Reynor is taken out by the final boss Rogue. Reynor is then crying on stream taking in a ton of donations, but abrupts the stream to go drink with PartinG. Rogue then meets Stats, who is the ultimate Protoss hope in the GSL, and in this battle of the returnees, Rogue kills Stats and takes the trophy. Later when interviewed by TL, he says Zerg is fcking OP and I dno what the other Zergs are on about.
On April 24 2024 18:18 ejozl wrote: Here is how this GSL will pan out:
In the group stage results there is a lot of discussion about how underpowered Zerg is, but even then Reynor goes on the hype train taking out even the tournament favourite Maru, but in the semis Reynor is taken out by the final boss Rogue. Reynor is then crying on stream taking in a ton of donations, but abrupts the stream to go drink with PartinG. Rogue then meets Stats, who is the ultimate Protoss hope in the GSL, and in this battle of the returnees, Rogue kills Stats and takes the trophy. Later when interviewed by TL, he says Zerg is fcking OP and I dno what the other Zergs are on about.
pls hire this person to write for TL. This is gold.
Rogue will only win if he finds some new unknown abusive strategy people won't have time to find a response too, this is how he wins tournaments.
Reynor has a really hard group he might actually not make it out of that group but he has a good as chance as anyone to get out.
If we have a bored Maru he might drop out in the first group, happens every time he is not inspired, I think the only motivation he might have lately is to solve Serral or money, pure speculation.
Dark and Reynor the only Zergs that can match the other top players in this tournament so if we get a Zerg winner it's most likely them but Reynor is in a tough group and Dark just became a father so Zerg hope is pretty weak this season
EPT
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/2024/codes2/qualifierresults.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/2024/codes2/ro16groups.png)
Rogue successfully claimed a spot in his first qualification attempt after completing his military service, while Italy's 
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLwI79wacAA_M3g?format=png&name=900x900)
