|
Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online. Anyways, here is my conclusion. I would prefer if you try to look at how day 1 evolved with an open mind yourself before reading it to avoid confirmation bias, though.
+ Show Spoiler +I find the whole of day 1 interestingly consistent with a hypothesis of a mafia group consisting of zelbalde, SacredSystem, CosmosXAM and balt11tFakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk.
Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note
Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
Now, at day 1, mafia who just wanted to be completely comfortable in their own room suddenly got attacked by the first post, pretty randomly. Not really a problem, just need to assault the idea of a random lynch, and maybe attack some other person who is at hand. Now, they point a bit onto FakePromise. Zelblade tries to post something inconspicious to not be the person of interest anymore, and makes the "to town" slip: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum.
To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are.
This puts him under scrutiny and into the spotlight. Anything he says now is constructed negatively. So mafia try again to push the spotlight onto someone else, the old target. My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post.
As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned. Now, we have one thing that i am not exactly sure of, which is Midnight attacking FakePromise, but maybe he really only want's to get lurkers to post.
I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast.
Now this by CosmosXAM, this is just weird. Doesn't it sound like he is not defending FakePromise, but actually zelblade? To me it does. Then, we have SacredSystem answering a question directed to CosmosXAM. If that is not scummy, i don't know what is. On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:53 zarepath wrote:
Right, we've moved on past random lynching.
Who do you think is suspicious? you and fakepromise you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you And FakePromise comes up again. Note that up to this point, the spotlight was very much on zelblade only. CosmosXAM states the exact same thing afterwards, with the added OMGUS onto Chocolate. Now DoYouHas votes on zelblade, and instantly afterwards SacredSystem votes for FakePromise. Just look at it: Every time one of those four gets into trouble (zelblade and CosmosXAM), something from one of the others happens that redirects the thread towards FakePromise. As soon as Zarepath brings up Cosmos as an alternate lynch target, zelblade votes onto FakePromise. When they are equal on votes, balt11t very fastly votes for FakePromise to make him lead again. Now, take a look at the votes list. Interestingly enough, this team has votes 2, 4 and 6 on FakePromise. As i said before, 3 votes expected, and of course never vote in tandem to avoid suspicion. Now, i know that all of this hangs on zelblade being mafia, but this is my take on the situation at the moment. I would really like to hear what others think about it.
|
Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody.
|
On January 28 2012 12:03 Simberto wrote:
Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online.
dreamflower and I are online!
Just in case you didn't notice.....
|
Now, just in case that you are not sure how to react to this, since mafia already know whom they hit on, it would be really useful for us to know that too.
Since both the medic and the target get notified on a safed hit, the best option is to have the targeted person say that they were safed. If you are a veteran and got safed by your veteran powers, ALSO state that you were safed by a medic, i think we gain more from mafia not knowing whether a medic exists than we would gain from knowing for ourselves.
|
On January 28 2012 12:05 Simberto wrote:
Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody.
EBWOP
Also, here i obviously meant "I don't see mafia not trying to kill anybody"
|
I'm more inclined to think MidnightGladius is scum over CosmosXAM. This is WIFOM but it still generally applies, why would mafia highlight their own teammates inconsistencies?
MidnightGladius' pressure vote that stuck is far more suspicious to me.
|
still no one has explained this to me yet
im mafia for accusing fakepromise after he agreed to 30% odds
and for saying that it was a bad idea from a townes perspective to hold a random lynch
|
No I have never intended to defend zelblade, sorry if it appeared that way to you but no it was my first post and I was trying to catch up on all the posts beforehand
|
On January 28 2012 09:54 Bromancipate wrote:
Second Scum Read - Balt11t
Someone go back and check his filter. It’s not extremely big.
Of that, is there anything in there of substance? I can’t really find much. He’s also constantly apologizing for many things that come up negative towards him, and saying sorry for playing poorly. He seems altogether TOO apologetic, almost as much as Zelblade, and like he doesn’t want to step on any toes. In my opinion, people that are afraid to piss someone off aren’t trying to draw attention to themselves for a reason.
I think his general apologetic nature, as well as his lack of making any real reads and pushing anything of substance. For someone who has been lurking these Mafia games for a long time, he seems to be doing a sight less than what he should be as someone dedicated to taking the fight to the mafia. I think a strong spotlight should be on him to step up his play in the second Day and try to find someone who is playing scum. I actually can’t pull anything out of his filter because there is a significant lack of anything there. -.-
This isn't true in the slightest. The only thing I've apologized for in this game has been unavailibilty due to school, and one due to a misunderstanding I created with hasty typing. Yes, my schoolwork takes up a lot of time, and yes, I realize due to this I have not been entirely active. But I hardly see explaining my abscences as TOO apologetic, rather a curtousey. And if you must know, coupled with my busy school-stuff, my internet today has been on and off all day. So if you call me being curteous being scummy, then yes, I am scummy. If you really want to take an interest in my personal life, I am in 4 AP classes, coupled with Advanced Band, and Speech team; I am a busy guy to say the least. In this week, I have had 3 tests, 2 papers, and a solo jury due, so now the time I can devote to his game will exponentially rise. I hope my explanantion to my whereabouts have sufficed for you, Bromancipate.
|
On January 28 2012 13:00 SacredSystem wrote:
still no one has explained this to me yet
im mafia for accusing fakepromise after he agreed to 30% odds
and for saying that it was a bad idea from a townes perspective to hold a random lynch
Doing these things is not inherently scummy, its how you did them.
You advocated patience and then jumped onto FakePromise a couple posts later.
You stated that 'it was conclusive!', yet your reasoning was poor and bandwagony.
I dont dare to assume the inner workings of zarepaths head, but I doubt he was ever going to follow through with the random lynch plan. It was a discussion starter... and guess what, it worked.
Your actions since my first case was written aren't flattering either:
-More discrediting of zarepath
-a giant OMGUS at Chocolate
-You state 'im most suspicious of zelblade', then in your next post THREE MINUTES LATER, you state hes probably noobie town.
-And the out-of-nowhere question 'Are the mafia told who the other mafia members are at the start of the first day, or only at night?' just stinks of 'oh look guys, i really don't understand how the mafia team works, I couldn't possibly be mafia'.
|
While your here balt11t, Id really like to know why you ninja voted on FakePromises yesterday at 8:27, yet your last post was at 6:29.
Declare your votes in the thread when you make them, and actually have them backed up with some reason.
|
On January 28 2012 13:25 Adam4167 wrote:
While your here balt11t, Id really like to know why you ninja voted on FakePromises yesterday at 8:27, yet your last post was at 6:29.
Declare your votes in the thread when you make them, and actually have them backed up with some reason.
Did I not back my position against FakePromise explicitly beforehand? Why should I repeat myself, when he was (in my opinion) the only true candidate for lynching? As I mentioned earlier, for a random lynch, 30% success is not very good odds, and I was prominent in advocating my dislike for his plans, which seemed rather scummy.
|
On January 28 2012 13:34 balt11t wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 13:25 Adam4167 wrote:
While your here balt11t, Id really like to know why you ninja voted on FakePromises yesterday at 8:27, yet your last post was at 6:29.
Declare your votes in the thread when you make them, and actually have them backed up with some reason.
Did I not back my position against FakePromise explicitly beforehand? Why should I repeat myself, when he was (in my opinion) the only true candidate for lynching? As I mentioned earlier, for a random lynch, 30% success is not very good odds, and I was prominent in advocating my dislike for his plans, which seemed rather scummy.
OK, but why not vote for him when you made those statements? rather then voting 8 hours later after hes nigh-on-dead already.
And again, make sure you say it in the thread. Otherwise it looks as though you're trying to sneak a vote through when no one is looking.
|
+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 13:22 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 13:00 SacredSystem wrote:
still no one has explained this to me yet
im mafia for accusing fakepromise after he agreed to 30% odds
and for saying that it was a bad idea from a townes perspective to hold a random lynch
Doing these things is not inherently scummy, its how you did them. You advocated patience and then jumped onto FakePromise a couple posts later. You stated that 'it was conclusive!', yet your reasoning was poor and bandwagony. I dont dare to assume the inner workings of zarepaths head, but I doubt he was ever going to follow through with the random lynch plan. It was a discussion starter... and guess what, it worked. Your actions since my first case was written aren't flattering either: -More discrediting of zarepath -a giant OMGUS at Chocolate -You state 'im most suspicious of zelblade', then in your next post THREE MINUTES LATER, you state hes probably noobie town. -And the out-of-nowhere question 'Are the mafia told who the other mafia members are at the start of the first day, or only at night?' just stinks of 'oh look guys, i really don't understand how the mafia team works, I couldn't possibly be mafia'.
i was advocating having the patience of coming to a logical conclusion, go back to that time frame and look at how many posts run rampant with crazy conspiracies
now listen you still havnt explained this to me yet,
how is fakepromise agreeing to 30% odds that go against the town poor reasoning for accusing him of mafia
i still am suspicious of zelblade as are many other townsmen, he has done nothing but apologize
and then THREE MINUTES LATER, after i had finished my post, i read the post from chocolate who accuses me of having confusing yet concise posts ~_~
as for someone who is bandwagon, look at the votes for that day
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=306091¤tpage=2#23
chocolate actually looks like a bandwagon
also the reason why i asked if the mafia knew each other from the start or only after night, is because once it hit night it occurred to me that i didnt know, it also wasnt in the rules and a detail like that seems like it would be pretty important
|
In line with line with what i said earlier, i would really like if people would cast preliminary votes as early as possible, so i will put mine down on zelblade now. Now only is he the one that i feel looks consistently scummy, he also started to lurk hardcore as soon as he was out of the spotlight. Also, he is the core of my greater mafie theory i explained in my post above in the spoiler above (btw, i would still like to see other people theories on how the FakePromise Lynch evolved, or regarding my theory)
Last, but not least, we are still missing town/mafia reads (with arguments!) from
balt11t, Adam4167 and zelblade and probably some other people. This does not need to interrupt the discussion.
##vote zelblade
|
An other thing, i think it would be HIGHLY helpful if everyone would ALWAYS declare his votes in this thread, just to make it easier to read.
|
You advocated patience then did a complete 180 later when nothing changed in between.
Everything you just asked I went through in my case or the follow up post on this page, go read that, I'm not repeating it again.
If Chocolate is suspicious for being on the back of the bandwagon, why isn't Simberto? why isnt balt11t?
If you claim to not know if mafia knew each other or not, why were you claiming zarepath was suspicious for defending FakePromise? More inconsistencies
|
I am in the middle of school during the deadline, and as such cannot post close to it unlike you guys. As for not posting throughout the night, some crap came up and I couldnt find the time to catch up with the thread. Will be alot more active from now on.
Catching up on the thread now, will post thoughts in a bit.
Also I believe that since there was no kill last night, the person who got hit (protected by a medic/vet power) should claim that they were shot. Mafia already know who they shot anyways, and it does help to confirm you assuming no one couter claims the shot. Since town shouldnt in any case lie about this anyway, if no one counter claims the shot, we can assume that that person is very likely town.
|
On January 28 2012 14:10 Adam4167 wrote:
You advocated patience then did a complete 180 later when nothing changed in between.
Everything you just asked I went through in my case or the follow up post on this page, go read that, I'm not repeating it again.
If Chocolate is suspicious for being on the back of the bandwagon, why isn't Simberto? why isnt balt11t?
If you claim to not know if mafia knew each other or not, why were you claiming zarepath was suspicious for defending FakePromise? More inconsistencies
you didnt cover anything
and why wouldnt zarepath be suspicious of defending fakepromise
you tell me why anyone would defend fakepromise
|
You weren't sure if mafia knew who each other were, so how could you use one player defending another as evidence that both of them are scum?
Your evasiveness is obvious. But indulge me, who are the 4 mafia in this game?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
