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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 10 2012 15:37 syllogism wrote:
It depends on how the person who suggests the plan thinks it is going to be received. I doubt RoL thought a mass claim on day 1 plan was going to be well received. Scum do not want to suggest a plan that instantly makes them the center of unwanted attention. Further, I don't think it's quite that obvious that the plan is bad and I think he thought quite a bit about it, which suggests to me that he really does think it's a good idea. Regardless, as I can't reliably determine if he really believes the plan is good or not, I'm treating it as null. His activity and lack of scum hunting is not null, but again I'm not lynching him over risk/tyrran.
"his play was so scummy he couldn't possibly be scum"
and Syllo if I have to push this through without you I will
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 10 2012 15:55 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 15:38 Blazinghand wrote:On January 10 2012 15:37 syllogism wrote:
It depends on how the person who suggests the plan thinks it is going to be received. I doubt RoL thought a mass claim on day 1 plan was going to be well received. Scum do not want to suggest a plan that instantly makes them the center of unwanted attention. Further, I don't think it's quite that obvious that the plan is bad and I think he thought quite a bit about it, which suggests to me that he really does think it's a good idea. Regardless, as I can't reliably determine if he really believes the plan is good or not, I'm treating it as null. His activity and lack of scum hunting is not null, but again I'm not lynching him over risk/tyrran. "his play was so scummy he couldn't possibly be scum" and Syllo if I have to push this through without you I will It is not so scummy he couldn't be scum...it is the disregard for the personal consequences, which is often a townie trait. When you aren't guilty, you don't usually think too much about whether or not what you do will draw suspicion.
I think he thought he could convince everyone. I think he wanted to lead this town down a dark path. Regardless, let's wait for him to formulate his defense of his so-called "plan"
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
Grackaroni's thing this game seems to be blandly agreeing with me and not sticking his neck out. He's probably the acolyte or something dumb like that
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 10 2012 19:38 Refallen wrote:
Blazing, look at who's voting with you on RoL. How many people there do you think are most likely town, and how many are not?
Current votes:
RebirthOfLeGenD (5): Blazinghand, Mr. Wiggles, Zephirdd, Spaackle, Cwave
I know I'm town, Wiggles is probably town (or an aggressive angel). I think Zeph's probably town. I don't like Cwave. I have no read on Spaackle.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On the other hand, in a game with 16 players, 5 of whom are scum, any group of 5 people will likely have a couple scum. Smart scum teams will split across several wagons blah blah wifom wifom.
Refallen also i've got my eye on you mr. hidey vote dude
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
Also you want to know what's more important than the alignments of the 5 people on the RoL Wagon?
the alignment of RoL.
RoL is scum.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 10 2012 19:45 Refallen wrote:
And the alignment of the people on the wagon plays no part in how likely someone is about to point out scum mirite?
Also, if you're still on that hidden vote thing, I derped, I said it, I stopped doing it.
You don't know the alignment of the people on the wagon either; but here's the thing-- if RoL is scum, I don't give a dick about who agrees with me or not. Maybe he's the 2nd demon and angels are trying to wipe the demons quick. Maybe he's an angel and the two demons are trying to get back into the game.
Or maybe all that matters is my analysis is spot-on, he's definitely scum, and he still hasn't come here to defend himself.
If you have a problem with my analysis, say it. If not, get out of my way.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 11 2012 01:24 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Lol, are you guys retarded? I am gone for a day and you guys go batshit stupid and try to lynch me? I have work until 6pm but when I get back whoever the fuck is pushing this is getting reamed and I will finally get on my analysis game that I have been meaning to do.
Yeah what was i thinking attacking such a useful and active pro town player oh no wait
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 11 2012 01:31 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 01:29 Blazinghand wrote:On January 11 2012 01:24 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Lol, are you guys retarded? I am gone for a day and you guys go batshit stupid and try to lynch me? I have work until 6pm but when I get back whoever the fuck is pushing this is getting reamed and I will finally get on my analysis game that I have been meaning to do. Yeah what was i thinking attacking such a useful and active pro town player oh no wait As one of the lovely people who unintelligently shit all over my plan I don't expect much from you, but that's fine. Please, tell me why I am scum, I'd love to see it.
Yeah good point i guess unless i made a big analysis post i dont have a leg to stand on huh
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 11 2012 04:03 Dirkzor wrote:
We can discuss other things then the actual lynch target. RoL's allignment seems in question at the moment.
There's no question he's obvious scum
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 11 2012 02:43 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 08:55 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Wow, Blazinghand, you beat me to it. (Also sorry for not being around, University just started back up) I was basically going to post something like: RoL: - Makes excuses for inactivity all of day 1, promising to contribute, but never doing it.
- Shows up at the end of the day to cast his vote, when the lynch is already decided
- Is active during the night, pushing a plan that is arguably anti-town
- Disappears again once day starts, and has yet to contribute a single read to the game
##Vote: RebirthOfLeGenD On January 10 2012 08:29 layabout wrote:
Essentially, If he believes his plan is good for town then regardless of whether it is good or bad it is not scummy to suggest the plan.
If he believes his plan is bad for town, then it follows that it is scummy. This is a very weak criticism, as RoL will always say that he thought his plan was good for town, especially if he is scum. What you're saying only holds under the assumption he is town, and we can all know he is town, which we obviously don't. Pushing a bad plan doesn't automatically make you scum, but you have to look at the plan, the player, and how they're pushing it. There's also the difference between a bad plan, and an anti-town plan. A bad plan just won't work, an anti-town plan will hurt the town. I like the way you criticise a simplification of my point and then say my point in another form. I never said we ask him, so that is not a valid criticism of my criticism. If we want to analyse the plan we need to do the following: We need to look a the player and look at what he is saying. We need to make a judgements on: - What does the player suggesting the plan think the consequences of suggesting or following the plan will be
- How they want us to perceive their plan
- How they tell us it will work in practice
- How we think it will work in practice+ Show Spoiler +
-is it good/bad?
-is it pro/anti town?
-we do this by asking questions and exploring possibilities "what will happen if..." "or what if..."
-we also do this by looking at consequences etc..
- how do they defend the plan?
- do they often suggest plans?
- how does this look compared to their other plans?
we can also look at possible motivations for suggesting the plan, and how these might change with different alignments etc... We have to look at a lot of different things in order to decide upon whether his plan makes him more likely to be scum. jumping from to is logically unsound. What is more important is whether RoL beleived it was anti-town when he suggested it (if he didn't then it is null). If you think he did believe it was anti-town we then have to look at his actions more closely to find evidence to support that ideas and ways in which RoL tries to push an anti-town plan. The judgements that i have made about his plan (i haven't shared them) have lead me to the conclusion that is is not scummy. +i might post about risk later or tomorrow if i feel like it
On January 10 2012 06:57 layabout wrote:I think you missed out one of the major crticisms of the plan ...
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
Does that summarize your thoughts on my analysis accurately?
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
So you think it's reasonable that
- RoL was completely inactive Day 1 except to tell us he was reading the thread
- RoL pushes a plan that YOU THINK is a terrible idea Night 1
- RoL has yet to contribute substantive analysis or doing anything useful besides offering this bad plan and defending it
- RoL is town
Does this accurately represent your views? Please elaborate if this is not the case.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
When I get home I will post my comprehensive case against risk.nuke as well. If it turns out we can't get a majority onto RoL, I'll gladly help bury risk.nuke-- I'm less sure about him, but he's #2 on my list. I'll also address criticisms of my RoL case, and demonstrate in an irreproachable fashion that he is obvious scum.
Side note: Anyone who's like "quick let's hammer risk.nuke without a full discussion" is either a fool or a knave. The more discussion people post before a flip, the more knowledge we gain after the flip.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
Looks like he wants to lynch risk.nuke, probably because he's trying to keep a non-him wagon rolling.
On December 28 2011 15:42 ZBot wrote:
risk.nuke (5): Bluelightz, Refallen, -Bluelightz, syllogism, Bluelightz, Zephirdd, RebirthOfLeGenD
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 11 2012 08:55 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2012 08:09 Blazinghand wrote:Looks like he wants to lynch risk.nuke, probably because he's trying to keep a non-him wagon rolling. On December 28 2011 15:42 ZBot wrote:
risk.nuke (5): Bluelightz, Refallen, -Bluelightz, syllogism, Bluelightz, Zephirdd, RebirthOfLeGenD
Alright guy who insists on interpreting every single thing I do as scum. Let's look at it this way. I know I am town, I can be 100% certain of that. I don't know risk.nukes alignment, but I can be sure it is less than 100% likely because I am not risk.nuke. Why would I ever support my own lynch, or not support the opposing lynch if I know for certain that I am a bad lynch? Combine that with Risk.nuke's shitty Seer comment and you have my vote on him.
Yeah I guess that's fair, a hypothetical town version of RoL would do the same thing. I retract that point.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 11 2012 13:13 Grackaroni wrote:
I feel that between risk.nuke and RoL, Risk.nuke is the better lynch.
RoL seems to truly believe that the voting block and confirmed townies would be more helpful than the blues themselves and seems to have spent a lot of time considering the implications of the mass roleclaim. I get the feeling that he legitimately believes his plan is good for town, and he stands by it even after the town declared it anti-town.
This is meaningless-- he'd stand by it if he was scum too.
The largest flaw in the plan is not the theory itself but the actual application. If only a portion of the town comes in to claim the whole plan falls apart, letting a portion of townies make claims is bad. Besides it's possible that we have a couple derp townies who would lie about their roles in order to save themselves or draw hits.
Alright, fine, here's my A-game. I was hoping more people would respond first, but here it is.
I'm not sure you understand what happened here-- RoL never meant for his plan to succeed. He knew-- *knew* that some people would stand against it, but some fools would get suckered.
Here's how you can tell:
he asked the VTs to claim.
The thing about a mass roleclaim like this is you only need to ask the blues to claim. If our four blues claimed blue, then we're done-- no need for everyone else to claim VT, because by definition we are all claiming VT by talking to each other here in this thread.
So why did RoL ask all the VTs to also claim, when it would be easier to just have the four blues claim (the Vts being everyone who didn't claim "Blue)? Why did he ignore this simpler way of executing his strategy that was less prone to failure?
Because, my friends, in case it hasn't been obvious for some time... RoL knew his plan wouldn't be unanimously accepted. He knew that few or none of the blues would claim. RoL is a smart guy and he knew what would happen. Look at him defend his plan! He's dismissing most arguments as dumb without even directly addressing them. His goal isn't for his plan to succeed or fail...
It is for his plan to kinda succeed. He wanted several VTs to claim, partially narrowing down the blues list and generally giving his faction an advantage in reading the town pool
That's almost how things went. Luckily the only moron in the pack was risk.nuke, probably RoL's scumbuddy trying to draw out other claims.
You're probably thinking "Blazinghand that sounds far-fetched"
but what sounds more far-fetched to you? that RoL, a good player, suggested this bad idea, kept on pushing it, etc, EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS AN EQUIVALENT OUTCOME IDEA WITH LESS RISK? Why not just have the blues claim?
RoL clearly spent a lot of time analyzing the setup. Long enough that he should have realized this.
No, he's scum, and he's obvious scum.
We have RoL dead-to-rights, you guys. There's no reasonable explanation for his actions other than being scum.
Let's hang him.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On January 11 2012 14:31 Spaackle wrote:
So, after a bit more of BH and RoL duking it out, I've decided to Unvote RoL for now. RoL has spent a long time and a lot of effort defending it, and a scum Probably would have dropped it long ago. RoL is still pretty null to me, though.
Give me a bit more time to finish catching up on the thread and reading some filter, and I'll have an analysis for both Tyrran and risk.nuke
What? Are you listening to yourself?
If he were scum he'd cling to it since it's the only thing he's done all game besides lurk and fail to vote Erandorr properly. If he were town, he'd believe in his plan so he'd defend it anyways.
RoL of any alignment will defend his plan. RoL isn't null, he's anti-useful and I have no idea why you'd unvote him at this time.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
I have been outside the cave and seen the light and all Spaackle here is doing is pointing at the wall.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
Fair enough. Read my post at the top of this page when the get the chance, though. I am highly convinced of RoL's guilt.
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EPT
