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On December 14 2011 07:31 Tunkeg wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 06:21 Velinath wrote:
I'm also going to ask at this point that other people start posting. We are almost halfway through Day 4 and so far it's been largely dominated by layabout (earlier), xtfftc, and myself. Where is everyone? I'll speak for myself here. I think the entire thread have taken a bad turn after layabout came into play. All he have done is make shitty cases and OMGUS'ing anyone arguing with him. I think he himself is playing an utterly crappy game (if he is town), he is purposly misinterpreting what other writes, twisting and turning every word that is written and his dickish behaviour wants me to straight up punch him in the face. He acts like he is so fucking great at this game, and keep referencing other games and how this game should be played. At the moment I get pissed off just by opening the thread and reading anything he writes, and therefor I find it hard to contribute anything usefull. I'll give him this though, if he is scum he is doing a good job, creating a crappy townenvironment and distracting the town with his shit. I know this is an increadible OMGUS post, and I know it will probably make me look bad, but I don't care, I can't coexist with layabout anyways. So please feel free to jump on me, cause atm I am the third best lynch town can make (green townie who is having a hard time contributing). I will give layabout the benefit of the doubt, I think he is scum and not a crappy asshole of a town... ##Vote: layaboutyour case is just so good! (/sarcasm) you have really proved through analysis that all of my behaviour suggests that i am mafia (/more sarcasm) your also insulting... which is of course the best way to present a legitimate argument (/immature and slightly hypocritical rebuttal) please come up with something to support your vote pssst i referenced ver because i felt it was relevant and that his analysis really puts the behaviours i have drawn attention to into context, reading through and understanding the guides/analysis on tl that can help new players to improve.
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EBWOP below vote layabout are my comments
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On December 14 2011 07:37 Velinath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 07:32 ey215 wrote:On December 14 2011 07:24 Velinath wrote:
I would like to know what your opinion is as far as what I brought up in my last post, regarding his stance on "never vote townies" and then voting for someone who he believed to be town. It's a contradiction he needs to give an answer to the town for. I however don't think it's a definitive scum tell. I'd like to see his answer before drawing a specific conclusion. My vote may be based on how he answers those allegations. If he's scum number two who do you think is the third? Third scum might be Bluelightz (who still hasn't contributed - and it seems that EB's case on Hassybaby from Day 1 has fallen by the wayside, despite it being a fairly good case). I have nearly zero post content to draw from for Bluelightz though.. I don't think it's layabout because bussing with only 2 scum left in the game would be utterly retarded, and I feel that Tunkeg has played a town game thus far. As I have stated I have a strong town read on you and I also believe BH to be town based on filter.
I'm not going to lie, at this point we've all said something that can be turned around on us as scummy and it's making it hard for me to pick out the scummiest of the lot. That's why I've thinking about the mafia's killing patterns and voting patterns more. It's just hard to make a case on it mainly because any time you do you get WIFOM yelled at you and it gets ignored.
Now you have to make the assumption I'm town to go with this, but like either layabout our youself pointed out every single person that has died had pointed out xttftc and I can't see why you would. Do the keep hoping we'll up and off him? Until today no real case had gained any traction.
I actually think he was the best shot for the mafia to get a two for one. If they kill him night two there's pretty good odds they could have gotten me lynched day three. Is that because they don't consider him a threat since he's been tunneling on me? I'd consider him a threat, he's pretty persuasive.
I guess that's why it's WIFOM, since you really don't know why they do anything it's hard to use what they do as data.
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ebwop: "I don't see why you would" should read something like I don't see why the mafia would kill people trying to frame him.
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On December 14 2011 07:42 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 07:31 Tunkeg wrote:On December 14 2011 06:21 Velinath wrote:
I'm also going to ask at this point that other people start posting. We are almost halfway through Day 4 and so far it's been largely dominated by layabout (earlier), xtfftc, and myself. Where is everyone? I'll speak for myself here. I think the entire thread have taken a bad turn after layabout came into play. All he have done is make shitty cases and OMGUS'ing anyone arguing with him. I think he himself is playing an utterly crappy game (if he is town), he is purposly misinterpreting what other writes, twisting and turning every word that is written and his dickish behaviour wants me to straight up punch him in the face. He acts like he is so fucking great at this game, and keep referencing other games and how this game should be played. At the moment I get pissed off just by opening the thread and reading anything he writes, and therefor I find it hard to contribute anything usefull. I'll give him this though, if he is scum he is doing a good job, creating a crappy townenvironment and distracting the town with his shit. I know this is an increadible OMGUS post, and I know it will probably make me look bad, but I don't care, I can't coexist with layabout anyways. So please feel free to jump on me, cause atm I am the third best lynch town can make (green townie who is having a hard time contributing). I will give layabout the benefit of the doubt, I think he is scum and not a crappy asshole of a town... ##Vote: layaboutyour case is just so good! (/sarcasm) you have really proved through analysis that all of my behaviour suggests that i am mafia (/more sarcasm) your also insulting... which is of course the best way to present a legitimate argument (/immature and slightly hypocritical rebuttal) please come up with something to support your vote pssst i referenced ver because i felt it was relevant and that his analysis really puts the behaviours i have drawn attention to into context, reading through and understanding the guides/analysis on tl that can help new players to improve.
On December 14 2011 07:44 layabout wrote:
EBWOP below vote layabout are my comments
My case against you is not great. But it is the only way for me to proceed in this game. I can't play this game with you in it. To be frank I don't care wheather you are mafia or town at this point, I can't play this game with you in it. So basicly town needs to get rid of one of us. If we are both town, well then we fucked this game up together.
And yeah I am insulting, cause I am an asshole to other assholes. It is ok to apply pressure, and it is ok to be playing an aggressive game, going total asshole is not ok IMO.
The only support I am going to provide for my vote is that I want you out of the game, scum or no scum. Of course if someone have a great case on someone, or if a uncontradicted blue comes up with a scum to lynch I will vote for them. I will not sabotage town.
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On December 14 2011 08:11 Tunkeg wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 07:42 layabout wrote:On December 14 2011 07:31 Tunkeg wrote:On December 14 2011 06:21 Velinath wrote:
I'm also going to ask at this point that other people start posting. We are almost halfway through Day 4 and so far it's been largely dominated by layabout (earlier), xtfftc, and myself. Where is everyone? I'll speak for myself here. I think the entire thread have taken a bad turn after layabout came into play. All he have done is make shitty cases and OMGUS'ing anyone arguing with him. I think he himself is playing an utterly crappy game (if he is town), he is purposly misinterpreting what other writes, twisting and turning every word that is written and his dickish behaviour wants me to straight up punch him in the face. He acts like he is so fucking great at this game, and keep referencing other games and how this game should be played. At the moment I get pissed off just by opening the thread and reading anything he writes, and therefor I find it hard to contribute anything usefull. I'll give him this though, if he is scum he is doing a good job, creating a crappy townenvironment and distracting the town with his shit. I know this is an increadible OMGUS post, and I know it will probably make me look bad, but I don't care, I can't coexist with layabout anyways. So please feel free to jump on me, cause atm I am the third best lynch town can make (green townie who is having a hard time contributing). I will give layabout the benefit of the doubt, I think he is scum and not a crappy asshole of a town... ##Vote: layaboutyour case is just so good! (/sarcasm) you have really proved through analysis that all of my behaviour suggests that i am mafia (/more sarcasm) your also insulting... which is of course the best way to present a legitimate argument (/immature and slightly hypocritical rebuttal) please come up with something to support your vote pssst i referenced ver because i felt it was relevant and that his analysis really puts the behaviours i have drawn attention to into context, reading through and understanding the guides/analysis on tl that can help new players to improve. Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 07:44 layabout wrote:
EBWOP below vote layabout are my comments My case against you is not great. But it is the only way for me to proceed in this game. I can't play this game with you in it. To be frank I don't care wheather you are mafia or town at this point, I can't play this game with you in it. So basicly town needs to get rid of one of us. If we are both town, well then we fucked this game up together. And yeah I am insulting, cause I am an asshole to other assholes. It is ok to apply pressure, and it is ok to be playing an aggressive game, going total asshole is not ok IMO. The only support I am going to provide for my vote is that I want you out of the game, scum or no scum. Of course if someone have a great case on someone, or if a uncontradicted blue comes up with a scum to lynch I will vote for them. I will not sabotage town.
Not going to lie, I'm not happy to see this "let's OMGUS off the deep end" thing from you. Look over what's been said on xtfftc - specifically his obvious contradictions - and I'd like to hear from you on what you think of those.
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trying to force town to pick between two players especially including yourself is just flat out anti-town
by pure chance any player you pick is likely to be town, if you are town that makes 2 town
by my impression of the game so far (aboutyou)/(my) rolepm i believe that we are both town
lynching a townie would almost certainly force lylo right now (1 from lynch + nightkill puts us a 3town-2mafia)
even worse should one of us flip town if we had forced the thread to chose, forcing the situation itself is scummy behaviour and killing a townie makes it much likelier that the survivor would get lynched, and if the survivor is town that would be game.
you also say your case isnt great
don't vote for someone if your case is weak.
+ Show Spoiler +i think its okay to say that right? i also found the image of me going "total ass-hole" quite amusing
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 14 2011 06:52 layabout wrote:i couldn't find a minimum activity requirement but @Zona is Bluelights getting modkilled/replaced for inactivity?his filterin the last 5 days he has posted at these times December 09 2011 08:55. a line of text December 10 2011 10:45. line + vote December 12 2011 01:23 2 lines worth of text + quotes December 12 2011 01:34 1 liner December 12 2011 01:34 comment on typos December 12 2011 02:14 2 lines of text my timestamp for velinaths last post December 14 2011 06:34
Yeah I was wondering about this as well. Whereas layabout has been active, it seems like in the case of Bluelightz we have traded one lurker for another.
I'm going to talk for a bit about Tunkeg, who I believe to be largely unhelpful in his "statistical" analysis.
On December 07 2011 07:24 Tunkeg wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 06:30 Velinath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 05:57 Tunkeg wrote:On December 07 2011 04:15 Velinath wrote:On December 07 2011 04:09 Blazinghand wrote:On December 07 2011 04:06 xtfftc wrote:On December 07 2011 03:55 Blazinghand wrote:
Tonight the mafia may have already made their decision, but if we can get the same info without exposing ourselves more by delaying an analysis post another hour, is that really a bad idea? One thought would be that we need as much information as possible, but I'm not saying we shouldn't have the info, just that a minor delay is good. Five hours is what we're talking about here. Yes, because it's not just about your own analysis. It's about your analysis and everyone else reacting to (or ignoring) it. An isolated read isn't as good as being able to analyse people's responces. Hm. That's true, the extra 24 hours may make the difference. On the other hand, it's worth noting that at the beginning of the day, we do receive another piece of information: assuming that either (a) there is no doctor or (b) the doctor guesses wrong, one of us dies and is a confirmed townie or blue. A dead confirmed townie or blue, but a confirmed townie or blue no less. This information might be unhelpful but it could also play a big role in terms of analysis. Going off your assumption that someone will end up dying tonight, why should we hold off on posting analysis? The more conversation that we can have before night ends, the more that the dead townie will be able to contribute before they die. Given this, I feel that we stand to gain more by posting analysis earlier so that we can discuss it with all of the town voices. For the sake of conversation what are you thoughts on the BByte lynch yesterday. You were the first one voting for him, what do you think of the rest of us that ending up voting for him. Any votes you find more suspicious than others? Hi! As far as where I stand on the BByte lynch, despite the flip I think it was the best option we had. As a town I felt that we were somewhat divided between a couple of scumreads from different people, and, given that, it would be too easy for scum to swing a lynch one way or another in that situation. BByte, as a policy lynch, was a good call - lurking is and will always be anti-town play. I wish he would have gotten back earlier to defend himself and avert the lynch, but as it stands it was the right call. I must admit I didn't expect people to jump over and start voting BByte as easily as they did. A couple people even said that they had decent scumreads but "because nobody's going to vote for them, I'll just vote for BByte". This is a little bit of a matter for concern. I don't know whether it's just town complacency or actual suspicious behaviour, but either way people need to step up and push their reads. + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2011 04:00 xsksc wrote:
Okay, I'll go with your judgement on this one. He seems like a decent lynch I guess, I'd prefer Tunkeg but that doesn't look like it's happening today.
##vote: BByte
Going to sleep now, will be back and active early tomorow morning. This one stood out to me - "it's not my best lynch choice, but it's not a bad one - and I can be more sure that my vote will help cement a lynch". On December 06 2011 05:13 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm willing to vote for BByte because he has not contributed to the game so far and his lynch target was stupid.
HassyBaby could still be a good lynch for today. Similar thing here. "This guy's a good lynch. Here's another option, but hey, I can actually get BByte lynched". On December 06 2011 07:26 xtfftc wrote:
I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise.
##Unvote: xsksc
##Vote: BByte
Similar to the last couple. What it came down to for a lot of people was "who can I vote for that will be a safe bet to avoid last-minute surprise vote switches?". BByte was a safe lynch. Not the best, perhaps, but safe. His behaviour was scummy, but we could have done some more analysis on other people and maybe gotten a better candidate. EB's case on Hassybaby springs to mind as a pretty impressive case, I think if we had had the time to discuss that he would have maybe made a better lynch target. Now that we have another day ahead of us, we need to start looking less at policy lynching and more at scum reads. While there was a reasonable amount of scumhunting yesterday, we were unable to act on those reads. After filtering the voters on BByte, I can't really see anything suspicious. Every vote was based off of Lynch All Lurkers, meaning it's really hard to distinguish between which voters were motivated by policy and which were scum. Despite my voting first, I really feel like BH led the bandwagon here, and that should merit some scrutiny. As has been said in the last two pages, players thinking for themselves is a good thing. Forming your own reads will always be better than going off of someone else. That said, I find one thing suspicious. xkskc's post stood out to me as just jumping on a bandwagon and really helping to get it rolling. At the time, BH had just gotten things started. An informed mafia would be able to switch votes after seeing as visible a bandwagon as BH got rolling, and allay suspicion. "Yeah, I would prefer we lynch X, but that's not happening so I'll just go along with Y". Seems weird to me, but like anything in this game we could WIFOM it to death. Tomorrow, I think it might be a good move to focus on Hassybaby more. EB posted an interesting case yesterday, and I think I posted some stuff slightly before that. One of the big points there is his complete sheep vote on BKEXE based solely on my reasoning, and then disappearing from the thread. Something to look into. While I don't want to policy lynch him for lurking, his play so far does seem scummy. Thank you for answering. I agree with your thoughts here. It is pretty hard to say anything about which votes are more suspicious. But if I am allowed to speculate I would think at least 1 scum was in on the lynch of BByte, and more likely 2 scums to secure it. 0 and 3 would be very unlikely IMO. 0 is unlikely because I think scum wanted to secure the lynch of a townie. 3 unlikely because then they would put all their eggs in one baasket (if all 3 jumped in early), and a change in lynchtarget would mean that at least 2 of them would have to switch to secure themselves (that would cause suspicion). If not all 3 jumped in early it would be no point in jumping in late for a third scum unless the vote weren't secured (for a secound scum, yeah, for a third no). So my view on the lynch yesterday is that there is likely to be two scums among the 7 who voted for BByte: Velinath, Blazinghand, xsksc, Grackorini, ey215, xtfftc and Tunkeg. And one among the rest. This is all speculations though, and probably not very usefull.
I view this entire statistical thing as bad. It's obvious WIFOM and I don't like it. The fact of the matter is, the entire mafia could have wagoned or anti-wagoned or who knows what! It makes more sense to take a look at people's individual reasoning behind their votes and find people that way. This is not a good strategy.
On December 14 2011 08:11 Tunkeg wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 07:42 layabout wrote:On December 14 2011 07:31 Tunkeg wrote:On December 14 2011 06:21 Velinath wrote:
I'm also going to ask at this point that other people start posting. We are almost halfway through Day 4 and so far it's been largely dominated by layabout (earlier), xtfftc, and myself. Where is everyone? I'll speak for myself here. I think the entire thread have taken a bad turn after layabout came into play. All he have done is make shitty cases and OMGUS'ing anyone arguing with him. I think he himself is playing an utterly crappy game (if he is town), he is purposly misinterpreting what other writes, twisting and turning every word that is written and his dickish behaviour wants me to straight up punch him in the face. He acts like he is so fucking great at this game, and keep referencing other games and how this game should be played. At the moment I get pissed off just by opening the thread and reading anything he writes, and therefor I find it hard to contribute anything usefull. I'll give him this though, if he is scum he is doing a good job, creating a crappy townenvironment and distracting the town with his shit. I know this is an increadible OMGUS post, and I know it will probably make me look bad, but I don't care, I can't coexist with layabout anyways. So please feel free to jump on me, cause atm I am the third best lynch town can make (green townie who is having a hard time contributing). I will give layabout the benefit of the doubt, I think he is scum and not a crappy asshole of a town... ##Vote: layaboutyour case is just so good! (/sarcasm) you have really proved through analysis that all of my behaviour suggests that i am mafia (/more sarcasm) your also insulting... which is of course the best way to present a legitimate argument (/immature and slightly hypocritical rebuttal) please come up with something to support your vote pssst i referenced ver because i felt it was relevant and that his analysis really puts the behaviours i have drawn attention to into context, reading through and understanding the guides/analysis on tl that can help new players to improve. Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 07:44 layabout wrote:
EBWOP below vote layabout are my comments My case against you is not great. But it is the only way for me to proceed in this game. I can't play this game with you in it. To be frank I don't care wheather you are mafia or town at this point, I can't play this game with you in it. So basicly town needs to get rid of one of us. If we are both town, well then we fucked this game up together. And yeah I am insulting, cause I am an asshole to other assholes. It is ok to apply pressure, and it is ok to be playing an aggressive game, going total asshole is not ok IMO. The only support I am going to provide for my vote is that I want you out of the game, scum or no scum. Of course if someone have a great case on someone, or if a uncontradicted blue comes up with a scum to lynch I will vote for them. I will not sabotage town.
And this is where you actually earn my vote.
"I dont' care whether you are mafia or town at this point"
That is straight-up anti town.
"the only support I am going to provide for my vote is that I want you out of the game"
are you serious? This is so anti-town it's blowing my mind.
##Vote Tunkeg
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
So is bluelightz gonna get replaced or modkilled or what? He hasn't posted in 48 hours.
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i will be back tomorrow about 12 hours before the deadline
maybe today there will be an enitire page made in my absence
+ Show Spoiler +i have thought this every day, every time i login i am awash with disappointment
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if he is modkilled + flips town, we mislynch, and mafia get a nightkill we lose!!
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sorry  just didnt feel like posting (>_<)
anyway some analysis on Tunkeg
First, he voted on ey on day 2
On December 09 2011 06:04 Tunkeg wrote:
I've read through EY's filter and I do sense some scumevibe. He have been in on every bandwagon. He came into BByte lynch as a fifth vote and on jay as fourth vote (reaassuring these votes come through without sticking his head out to much). He haven't really been sticking his head out to much for the entire game (except the BH arguement). And finally he is on my probability list. Therefor I will vote for ey215.
##Vote ey215
but he said his vote on him was wrong.
Next, he jumped on the BKEXEs band wagon
On December 10 2011 22:28 Tunkeg wrote:
I am all for a lynch on BroodKingEXE. His post aren't making mucch sense, and this have been the case from the beginning. At first I wanted to cut him some slack, because of newbiefactor. And I thought a lynch on him would be to easy, as in easy for scum to get a bandwagon on. After a passive first day, he came back on the secound day (the end of Day 1 ingame) posting more, as if he had been told by someone to step up his game. He have as you guys have said been defending jay, before he bussed him and took the opposite approach (this after seeing that jay was going to get lynched). And then comes the part that puts it over the top. He sees xtfftc's and my vote on ey215 and jumps on it, as a last resort to save himself. I belive BKE is scum, and he will have my vote.
My vote on ey215 seems to be wrong, I may have put to much into my probability lynch case, and I really wanted a lynch on one of those four. Having some small scumreads on ey215 I went with it. As of now my entire probability lynch case seems pretty dead, I think BKE is scum, and jay flipped scum, therefor there can't be 2 scum among those 4.
##Vote BroodKingExe
Lastly, on day 1 he voted on xsksc but when he realized it was going to fail he switched to BByte
On December 06 2011 07:43 Tunkeg wrote:
Having read up on the three most likely candidates for a lynch today (Those three are Adam (2votes in), Bbyte and Hassybaby.), and ElectricBlacks write up on Hassybaby I have the following thoughts:
From scummiest to towniest I'd go for Bbyte>Hassybaby>Adam.
Bbyte simply have posted to little and to little content.
Hassybaby is pretty much a no-read at the time. But one major bad thing is that he haven't posted for ages.
Adam I am leaning town on, and I do not want to see him lynched.
Seeing that xtfftx have unvoted xsksc, he will not be lynched tonight. And as bad as this looks, I will also post my vote on Bbyte, to avoid any surprises. But I really feel Bbyte have been bandwagoned here, but rather him than the other two.
##Unvote: xsksc
##Vote: Bbyte
He has been scumhunting the entire game though so my thoughts on him is neutral.
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also, gonna make some analysis on LB later
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 14 2011 09:44 Bluelightz wrote:sorry just didnt feel like posting (>_<)
For two days? You'll need to do better than that or town's gonna lose.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 14 2011 09:46 Bluelightz wrote:
also, gonna make some analysis on LB later
now would be better.
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On December 14 2011 09:44 Bluelightz wrote:sorry just didnt feel like posting (>_<)
you do realize you're judged on your posting in this game right, and lurking makes you look TERRIBLE?
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 14 2011 09:44 Bluelightz wrote:
He has been scumhunting the entire game though so my thoughts on him is neutral.
Why are you neutral? Maybe he's been scumhunting, but how much has he followed through on it? Shouldn't you have a scum read on him? Why the neutral read?
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 14 2011 10:02 Velinath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2011 09:44 Bluelightz wrote:sorry just didnt feel like posting (>_<) you do realize you're judged on your posting in this game right, and lurking makes you look TERRIBLE?
And he did actually not post for 48 hours. Did he not read the rules, or did he ignore them.
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On December 14 2011 08:47 Blazinghand wrote:
So is bluelightz gonna get replaced or modkilled or what? He hasn't posted in 48 hours.
He will not be modkilled or replaced at this time.
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I've skimmed the thread during breakfast, so I can't address everything at the moment. Veli, I will reply to everything you've written when I read it, don't freak out. The only bit I'm going to address for now is the bolded part
On December 14 2011 06:14 Velinath wrote:you even said: Show nested quote +In conclusion, most of the town has sheeped on BKE (with Veli, Adam and to a lesser extent Tunkeg being the exceptions). I feel like there wasn't a proper attempt to change the direction of the lynch until late Day 3 and I agree that the third mafia player may have simply abandoned Jay and BKE to save himself/herself.
As I was re-reading his earlier posts just now, I reached the same conclusion as before: bad townie. After Bbyte's lynch he finally stepped it up and started posting stuff and it became obvious that he was struggling to come up with his analysis. This was similar to Jay, with the main difference being that Jay posted much more filler during Day 1. But both couldn't keep it up when they were forced to provide their reads. I have yet to post on how BKE himself has posted on the other players but for now I don't see many promising leads. I'd sayu that the mafia is hiding amongst the quieter players but perhaps I'm seeing things this way simply because those who have posted a lot on BKE are my town reads anyway. WHY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR SOMEONE YOU BELIEVE TO BE TOWN. No word twisting here. You simply said "Hey, I think he's a townie, but here's my vote on him anyway". That is in no way a good idea. Ever. In fact the only reason to lynch a townie knowingly is if you are scum.
Read my post that you have quoted again. What I said was that his earlier posts made me believe that he was town ("As I was re-reading his earlier posts just now, I reached the same conclusion as before: bad townie"), just like with Jay, but later when he was forced to step it up I thought he was mafia ("But both couldn't keep it up when they were forced to provide their reads"). Him and Jay were the perfect example of newbie mafia who can only appear town if they lurk, and them buddying up made it even worse.
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EPT
