EPTNewbie Mini Mafia - Page 35
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 08 2011 13:52 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Alternately, medic claims only if we pick him to be hung. If scum tries to use it as an out, real medic counter-claims, same situation as I mentioned above. Or, another option, we no lynch today and see what the fuck is up after another night. Lynch or lose all day every day. The medic can certainly do the claim if he gets lynch-targeted today, because if we do a no-lynch, a night kill tonight COULD hit the medic, and we're in deeper shit; simply because we don't have the night-save anymore, and we lose a confirmed townie. We'll need to start lynching people anyway, and IMO the less chances scum have to kill the Medic, the better it would be for us. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14038 Posts
everything I see is small chances. Small chances that the medic claims small chances that its the real medic and the scum doesn't counter claim or sow just one more day of discord in us. I guess small chances are all we got. everyone claims a pony to their name and we deduce the scum from their pick? idk I'm going to read though the thread tomarrow morning and see if I can get something. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
On November 07 2011 11:41 Skrammen wrote: So we have 10 players remaining, if lynch goes through we'll lose 1 and if we dont get divine intervention again they will kill another 1, so that makes 8 remaining, of which 3 maybe scum, 2 if we get this right. If we have 8 players where 3 are scum, there are 4 who arent, we are 2 players down from achieveing vote majority, and if we lynch a scum, we are 1 player down from achieving vote majority? So, basically, we need a scum lynch AND divine intervention? Does that look as horribly incriminating to anyone else as it does to me? | ||
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Sermokala
United States14038 Posts
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Town has vote majority the whole game. We lose when we don't have it. Scum is the one trying to achieve a majority. | ||
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 08 2011 14:57 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Holy previously skimmed over post batman! Does that look as horribly incriminating to anyone else as it does to me? Well, I skimmed over that post and was confused. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14038 Posts
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Sermokala
United States14038 Posts
Skrammens scum end of story. | ||
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Skrammen
Norway195 Posts
But for you who has me pegged as scum, I'd quite like you to explain it with more reason than "oh well he looks scummy i guess" and i'll answer you once I get home from the hospital later today. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
 GL townies, you still got a decent chance  | ||
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IMABUNNEH
United Kingdom1062 Posts
But is SKrammen REALLY that obvious? We originally thought that risk.nuke kill was potentially scum trying to shift attention away from him, since it implicated anyone except for him. I'm going to go with the obvious here. SKrammen absolutely has to be scum. I don't know if anyone doesn't have him on their scum list anymore either. So an early vote to make my intentions known: ##vote SKrammen Sorry to Toad for suspecting you for so long It seems that as soon as a couple more of us came round to believing you were town, you got punished for it. That makes me think the scum are the low-middle activity people for certain. | ||
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Skrammen
Norway195 Posts
On November 08 2011 21:55 IMABUNNEH wrote: Urgh. I've said from Day 1, one of Toad and SKrammen are obviously red, and the other green as a result. But is SKrammen REALLY that obvious? We originally thought that risk.nuke kill was potentially scum trying to shift attention away from him, since it implicated anyone except for him. I'm going to go with the obvious here. SKrammen absolutely has to be scum. I don't know if anyone doesn't have him on their scum list anymore either. So an early vote to make my intentions known: ##vote SKrammen Sorry to Toad for suspecting you for so long It seems that as soon as a couple more of us came round to believing you were town, you got punished for it. That makes me think the scum are the low-middle activity people for certain.So, why do I absolutely have to be a scum? | ||
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IMABUNNEH
United Kingdom1062 Posts
You've been suspicious since Day 1, and your posting pattern reinforces the want to vote you. You were quiet on Day 1, stepping out late to defend yourself and barely not getting lynched, but you left it pretty late to do so. Over the next day or so you were pretty quiet, lying low and staying unassuming until the hyshes bandwagon formed, which you jumped on pretty late. Your posts have said very little in the way of content, and you haven't particularly attempted to pressure anyone. You said if hyshes flips green you'll be having a good hard look at Drem, but your post about him didn't REALLY say much. Also your posts seem to express the most suspicion of Drem, and yet you haven't committed to a vote or pressure on him since then. Also this quote: Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible: 1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game. But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him. 2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two. You offered the fact that if Toad gets killed by mafia, you would be lynched. You also quite rightfully (in my opinion) let us know that the most likely option is one of the 2 of you are scum. Well now we know which one isn't, it's a fairly simple deduction as to who is. If I were to make a list of people who I think are town and who I think are scum, it would look exactly like the one I did do earlier. + Show Spoiler + On November 07 2011 22:33 IMABUNNEH wrote: Right having taken the time to reread everything, I can say one thing - I think I was wrong on the Skrammen/Toad thing. Not wrong as such, but wrong to remain so stubbornly fixated on Toad from day 1. Having taken a stepback and read everything through again, I'm going to step out and say who I think is what. Town Harbinger Ciry Toad This isn't an uncommon feeling at this point I guess, though my decision on Toad might look odd to people, so I'll explain that briefly. Despite receiving varying amounts of pressure on every single day, he hasn't been afraid to continue to stand up and make himself heard. What's convinced me the most though isn't that he's attached himself to the other 2, but that they all 3 sort of slowly came together on opinions over the last couple of days. Now either it's a FANTASTIC mafia ploy and they are the 3 scum, but I find that so unlikely at this point. Scum Skrammen Drem While re-reading I read enough from Toad to convince me he probably wasn't scum, doing so had the opposite effect on SKrammen. He hasn't made any attempt to redeem himself in order to avoid a lynching. He hasn't tried to pressure others, which sounds like he doesn't NEED information because he already knows it. Drem is scummy to me after a reread. He's inconsistant, and his posts lack the attack of most people, which leads me to believe something similar, he's not interested in hearing a defense. [purple]Unknown[/purple] Zanfa xksxksd These are 2 I simply can't place. I don't think either has posted enough to get a particularly good read from, and through my guessing above, one of the 2 has to be scum. In my opinion Zanfa has come off as more scummy to me. He's quietly slipping onto the bandwagons, and reading his posts it almost seems like he's trying to avoid creating any kind of waves that might cause people to focus on him. xkskckxk has been more committed when he has tried to apply pressure, and seems to me just like a bit of a newbie who didn't want to go out on a limb early on, as his posts have increased recently, whereas Zanfa's seem to just stagnate. That's what I think at the moment. Who gets shot tonight is probably going to play the biggest role, as Toad said. That alone might give us the information we need. Nothing done since that post has shown me that there's any variation to that. My suspicions that Toad is actually green were made known along with that of one or 2 others (I think) not too long before his death. I get the feeling he was originally planned as a bandwagon lynch if people started getting it right, with a good number (as evidenced by the Chocolate days initial votes) of people thinking he was scum. When people started coming round to the idea he wasn't, he was immediately pinged off as one of the biggest threats to any scum. Especially as his case was on Drem and SKrammen, both people I have on my "they're scum" list. I find that an unlikely coincidence. If you're scum the risk.nuke kill makes sense (of course you wouldn't kill someone defending you), and the Toad kill later in the game makes sense for reasons I already explained. I'm more convinced than I am about anyone else anyway. Also note that your arguments against votes and suspicions have MOSTLY been "I think that argument is weak", without really explaining why it's weak, or why your arguments are stronger. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
If you could elaborate a bit on your change of heart regarding toad that would be appreciated. I am obviously a bit skeptical of it considering it came after the lynch on him fell apart, and was also already partway through the night. (read: You could be scum that decided to shoot him, but to come out in favor of him before doing so) | ||
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IMABUNNEH
United Kingdom1062 Posts
1) Assuming I stand by my idea that either SKrammen or Toads had to be a mafia, then if I make the decision that SKrammen seems far more scummy than Toads to me, then it eliminates Toads as a red. 2) Toads has been a suspect since day 1, I've pressured him as have others basically every day, and he hasn't once baulked under the pressure. He's maintained composure, and given fully reasoned answers when something has been asked of him. SKrammen practically disappeared while under pressure, and seems to struggle to answer reasonably basic attempts to probe him without resorting to "Your argument sucks" (paraphrasing) type responses. 3) Toads appeared to have the trust of both yourself and Ciry. We know for a fact now that all 3 of you weren't scum buddies rising to the top. Ciry and Toads both bring experience, though I can't remember if you're newbie or not, and I would assume that more seasoned players would have definite reasons in their mind to "trust" someone. I identified you as someone I thought was probably town a while back. Toads was confident about both you and Ciry, and as he has flipped green, and the 3 of you were more or less voting together before that, logic follows that you're PROBABLY safe bets between the 3 of you. 4) Toads has got votes wrong, so has SKrammen. But Toads made much more effort to explain his votes and try and get people to see his point of view. SKrammen hardly does that at all, instead making a vote or a choice without that much to back it up. The decision came as I was learning that the mafia were likely to be below that top level of activity. risk.nuke was active and attacking people, he died. Toads was active and doing so, he died. Toads was smart enough I reckon not to risk shooting risk even as a double/whatever bluff, and did a lot to provoke people into talking. At the time I was changing my opinion, it was when I decided that I thought Toads was playing far to risky to be scum, I didn't think a red would REALLY be that Balls of Steel in his play. I'll note that I never REALLY intended to finish with my vote on Toads that day. I didn't want to drop what had been my prime suspect without forcing him to respond to votes first. Before the massive hyshes train, I liked and approved of the way he was posting. | ||
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Zanfada
United States53 Posts
4. Zanfada town 5. xsksc 6. Ciryandor town 7. sermokala Replaced hacklebeast 8. Skrammen 10. Drem903 11. IMABUNNEH town If either HoD or Ciry are not town we are fucked. I have looked over their posts and don’t see anything wrong with them right now. With that, everyone has put them in town category. Bunny has been post much more and my read on him has changed to probably town. Everyone has been suspicious of Drem and Skram for days. Day 1 Day 2 Dy 3 Skrammen choco; drem, hysh; toad, choco; Drem903 zan; toad, choco, hysh; toad, choco; Drem has only voted for known green. I am 100% sold on him being scum. Also his so numerous mistakes seem to be a ploy to play the noob card to avoid suspicion. Skram has voted for known town except his vote for drem + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2011 10:37 Skrammen wrote: @Toadsstern The reason for this is that at that point, bunneh and risk were defending me, and thus me flipping would be bad news for them. Perhaps pretty redundant but still true. So lets think about it. Risk turned out to be green. If I were a red, how would I benefit from his death? He blocked my lynch, and he seemed pretty adamant about my affiliations. Now that he's gone it might reinforce any suspicions you have of me or toad, which is exactly what the scum wants, they want either of us lynched on day 2. Your vote for Drem earlier was a vote for the sake of voting, nothing solid to go on. Your unvote was also on very poor grounds. What I do think of this situation is that me and toad are just two townies pointing fingers at each other. I've not removed you from my list of people to look at, but at this point in time, I do not think you are a scum. You're pointing fingers at basically everyone in this game, which is either poor mafia play or good townie play. At this point its obvious that either one of us is a scum, or none of us. Lets look at the votes from the previous day: + Show Spoiler + 1. risk.nuke Toadesstern 2. HarbingerOfDoom Skrammen 3. Toadesstern Skrammen 4. Zanfada Skrammen 5. xsksc Skrammen 6. Ciryandor Skrammen 7. hacklebeast toadesstern 8. Skrammen Chocolate 9. hyshes Zanfada 10. Drem903 Zanfada 11. IMABUNNEH Toadesstern 12. Chocolate Skrammen I do not think there would be more than 1 mafia voting for me. Risk voted Toadsstern and we know he turned out to be town. Hacklebeast also voted for him, and so did bunneh. But what if we consider hyshes and drem's vote on Zanfada to be a safe-vote, so to speak? Or do you think this is very poor mafia play? At this point im not sure, but im pointing my finger on drem. + Show Spoiler + the people i've accused genuinely accused: Zanfada (not great reasoning, but it was only my first day, and he just seemed suspicious), SKrammen, YOU, hackle, and Toad. If we say that he would not accuse a fellow mafia, there is stil chocolate, bunneh, hyshes, ciry, xskcx and HoD left. Now, I believe there is somthing there worth investigating. + Show Spoiler + Of those 5 Toad and SK are the one's i've been constant about, and toad is the only one to make any real accusations against me. Zanfada i hold no real suspicion of anymore. Why not vote me? Seems like an easy lynch. It would probably give you some answers, too. But you knew that I would flip green, and when that happened you do not want to be on the list as a scum. + Show Spoiler + 1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia. Yes, or perhaps his excuse is a valid one. I made a comment about time-zones and it nearly got me lynched. + Show Spoiler + 2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth. Now this is interesting. You're right - it could be a double trick. Or a triple trick, or whatever. I think getting rid of risk is too obvious, and I dont think it would benefit him. Sometimes there is not a hidden meaning, and sometimes the most obvious answer is the right one. But we can not be 100% certain untill we get some lynching done. At this time, I believe Drem to be a valid lynch. Another day without a lynch is getting us nowhere. ## Vote Drem903 He has lots of posts like + Show Spoiler + On November 05 2011 23:21 Skrammen wrote: So, I'm just going to share some of my thoughts and consider some scenarios here. First of all, welcome Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible: 1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game. But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him. 2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two. Also, I noticed somthing Toad said: + Show Spoiler + Ok I'm back and lol we got a hero medic We cant be sure there is a medic, yet he automatically says there is one. A scumslip? Although, to be fair, I do not think the mafia would abstain from trying to kill someone, so we might have one. I cant be for sure if this is a scumslip or just a lack of clarification, but it does seem a bit suspicious to me. ##Vote Drem903 | ||
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
Why not Skrammen? Since you find him suspicious as well, why are you voting for Drem, when town needs everyone to agree on a single lynch? | ||
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
I believe my reasons on Day 1 and his further obscurantism shows his scumminess. | ||
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