TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 112

On April 14 2011 14:04 DoctorHelvetica wrote:

Please stop posting. This interferes with my analysis of the game whether you think what you're posting is relevant or not.

You may invoke the power at any time during the day cycle you choose, and no lynch will happen that day.

On April 14 2011 09:22 LSB wrote:
Still I don't see it as being too damming. They are just little things, like lynching for information, throwing out FOS. Trying to get people to protect FW doesn't mean that he's necessarily scum. Of course, if FW flips red Rean is going to be in hot water, but Rean's support for FW is based on the fact that FW is a vet.

I have a neutral read on Rean, however I'd rather lynch Rean over Coagulation.

On April 14 2011 09:28 LSB wrote:
Contradictions arn't a 100% scum tell. Contradictions are a symptom of fake scumhunting and manipulation. Rean doesn't seem like the one to be manipulative and he doesn't done any scumhunting yet.

On April 14 2011 10:47 LSB wrote:
Can we lynch Flamewheel now?

On April 10 2011 03:01 GMarshal wrote:
Ok, my thoughts on this: I actualy seriously considered the possibility of lynching the pardoner as the day one lynch, but then I realized something, the Pardoner is more pro-town a role than it at first seems. Why? Because its the only person who can singlehandedly shut down a scummy last minute vote switch, where all the scum switch over to their preferred target, and potentially win the game. Also, as long as the pardoner is level headed he'll save his power for a situation where its obviously beneficial to the town (e.g. save a player who is obviously town from a sudden and unexpected wagon).

On April 14 2011 03:12 GMarshal wrote:
(DrH analysis)

"I will disregard everything the town says completely, and to have pandain as pardoner so if he is DT he doesn't die. "

we go from pandian is probably lying and should be ignored to pandian is ok as pardoner, also I'm *still* going to ignore anything the town says.

Also note how thought he refers to how "worthless" the pardoner role is, when in reality it is a strongly anti town role

On April 14 2011 14:37 GGQ wrote:
Why I have a very hard time believing any DT claim in this game:

In the OP, it states that not every role is guaranteed to be in the game. I believe that the DT is one role that is not in this game. My logic is simple; there's no millers. The miller role has been replaced by the nosy neighbour; a townie that shows up at deaths to throw doubt on tracker/watcher reports. I think that a DT with no miller is too powerful, so we probably only have trackers/watchers as our information roles. So I have a tough time believing GMarshal is a DT.

Why didn't I bring this up for Pandain or Protact's DT claims? They were both obviously fake anyways... I figured I might as well hold on to this thought until someone claimed DT and was actually believed.

However, even IF GMarshal is a DT, his little thing with Protact really doesn't change anything in my mind. To me, it's always been clear that Protact is assassin and faked DT claim. The argument about lynching Coagulation is that the only reason for him to fake a guilty on Coagulation is that he's sure Coagulation will flip red. That's what he's depending on, and his analysis should be given some weight for sure. (There is an outside chance that Protact believe Coag is black and is trying to get us to lynch him, but that's been shown to be unlikely already and if so Coag's win condition would require him to claim black to survive a little longer). And I haven't seen anyone argue against Protact's actual analysis of Coagulation, only against his DT claim. I thought from DrH's posts that he understood this, which is why I find it very strange that he switch off Coagulation after GMarshal's DT claim.

On April 14 2011 15:17 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Didn't ON get replaced?

On April 14 2011 14:37 GGQ wrote:
Why I have a very hard time believing any DT claim in this game:

In the OP, it states that not every role is guaranteed to be in the game. I believe that the DT is one role that is not in this game. My logic is simple; there's no millers. The miller role has been replaced by the nosy neighbour; a townie that shows up at deaths to throw doubt on tracker/watcher reports. I think that a DT with no miller is too powerful, so we probably only have trackers/watchers as our information roles. So I have a tough time believing GMarshal is a DT.

Why didn't I bring this up for Pandain or Protact's DT claims? They were both obviously fake anyways... I figured I might as well hold on to this thought until someone claimed DT and was actually believed.

However, even IF GMarshal is a DT, his little thing with Protact really doesn't change anything in my mind. To me, it's always been clear that Protact is assassin and faked DT claim. The argument about lynching Coagulation is that the only reason for him to fake a guilty on Coagulation is that he's sure Coagulation will flip red. That's what he's depending on, and his analysis should be given some weight for sure. (There is an outside chance that Protact believe Coag is black and is trying to get us to lynch him, but that's been shown to be unlikely already and if so Coag's win condition would require him to claim black to survive a little longer). And I haven't seen anyone argue against Protact's actual analysis of Coagulation, only against his DT claim. I thought from DrH's posts that he understood this, which is why I find it very strange that he switch off Coagulation after GMarshal's DT claim.

On April 14 2011 11:14 Protactinium wrote:

Hahahaha. So we should lynch him because he was a lot of people's scum read day 1? Judging from the overwhelming amount of votes on Coagulation today, its pretty safe to say that Coagulation is a lot of people's scum read day 2. Yesterday was day 1. Today is day 2. Given that we have a lot more information day 2 than day 1, lets go with the 'more information' and vote Coagulation. Stop trying to derail this lynch.

On April 14 2011 12:14 Protactinium wrote:

Incorrect. Coagulation is a key player for the mafia. It's not that he's a good player, it's that mafia have already committed to saving him. Look back at the thread. Ever since my Coagulation accusation, mafia have been trying to subtly redirect the lynch. Notice how people are "not convinced" that Coagulation is mafia, try to suggest that we let me die tonight to "prove" that Coagulation is innocent, and try to suggest other targets. Yet notice the divergence in the voting thread. The voting is overwhelmingly in favor of lynching Coagulation, yet the debate in the thread diverges sharply. This is not an accident. Notice how nobody was doing any real analysis before I popped up and accused Coagulation. Mafia felt no need to fear when they thought I was as good as dead. But when I post a strong analysis, they reacted. They reacted not by refuting my points, but by flooding the thread with alternative accusations trying to derail the lynch. Why? They don't know who to push. They know the Coagulation analysis is a strong one, so they need to offer a target that town will readily buy. They're trying to test the waters and see what lynch works.

Obviously, Coagulation is Mafia. If he were anything but, Mafia would be content to let him die and would have never felt the need to defend him in the first place. It is certain that mafia defended him originally, as shown by the floods of alternative target suggestions. Your so-called "analyst" Pardoner doesn't do anything but fling mud at me for the better part of a day. Yet when I return and start decimating his attempt to derail the lynch, he panics and decides to fake claim DT in a desperate attempt to make the town back out. Oh, and not to mention he does a bogus ultimatum in which he makes a shoddy attempt to discredit my DT claim. GMarshal's DT claim as Mafia makes total sense. He can't be rolechecked, and given the situation the mafia is in, he needs to do something to stop the Coagulation lynch. Furthermore, he knows who the mafia are, so it isn't that difficult to solidify his position later on in the game. Just look back at GMarshal's behavior. Its clearly scumlike. He was elected on a platform of being a "good analyzer", but he has done nothing but fling mud, spread doubt, and make a few half hearted attempts at analysis. GMarshal has something to hide, since he is obviously mafia. Mafia have every reason to save Coagulation now because they've already committed to the lynch. Too many people are coming out accusing people of being mafia. Mafia felt pressured, and were forced to make a big move.

Mafia got overconfident and thought they could discredit me because I switched claims. Unfortunately for them it failed.

On April 14 2011 12:56 Protactinium wrote:
Think about GMarshal's overall profile. What is he trying to do? From day 1, notice how he does not express support for any candidate other than himself. Why? It seems that every other candidate was expressing who they wanted in office and why. It is extremely important for town to pick good elected officials. Yet GMarshal did nothing of the sort, and didn't say who he wanted to win election, besides himself. Yet he had no trouble in saying who he thought shouldn't be elected. It's obvious he has an agenda here. He doesn't care who gets in, as long as he is one of the winners. Look at the suspicious votes GMarshal gets. There are countless lurkers and inactives who vote GMarshal without explaining why. And as you recall, GMarshal was the first one out the gate, and managed to obtain a sizable lead early on in the race, while everyone else was stuck at less than 4 votes. At one point in time, GMarshal's 11 votes outnumbered all the other candidates combined. This is not a coincidence. As I've said before, mafia candidates are never uncompetitive in a mayoral election. Having the 20% of the total voting power, mafia always tend to get an early lead and maintain it. Why is this? Because of town tendencies to bandwagon, it is very advantageous to get an early lead, as you are likely to attract votes of newer/inexperienced/uninterested townies who feel safe voting for a big name player who leads the vote count. GMarshal's early lead suggests mafia interference. But that's not all. Look at the thread activity during day 1. There are plenty of people who are unsure of electing DH or me on day 1, but almost all GMarshal's voters are unmoving. There was plenty of room to sway votes among the DH/Protact crowd, but GMarshal's voters were alarmingly loyal.

On April 14 2011 12:14 Protactinium wrote:

Incorrect. Coagulation is a key player for the mafia. It's not that he's a good player, it's that mafia have already committed to saving him. Look back at the thread. Ever since my Coagulation accusation, mafia have been trying to subtly redirect the lynch. Notice how people are "not convinced" that Coagulation is mafia, try to suggest that we let me die tonight to "prove" that Coagulation is innocent, and try to suggest other targets. Yet notice the divergence in the voting thread. The voting is overwhelmingly in favor of lynching Coagulation, yet the debate in the thread diverges sharply. This is not an accident. Notice how nobody was doing any real analysis before I popped up and accused Coagulation. Mafia felt no need to fear when they thought I was as good as dead. But when I post a strong analysis, they reacted. They reacted not by refuting my points, but by flooding the thread with alternative accusations trying to derail the lynch. Why? They don't know who to push. They know the Coagulation analysis is a strong one, so they need to offer a target that town will readily buy. They're trying to test the waters and see what lynch works.