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First thing's first, ##Vote: Bumatlarge. I feel ample time has passed for any sort of CC, and if blues are so dumb to have not CC'ed yet, they've done town a great disservice.
The next thing I'd like to discuss a little, is the item game. I'm feeling like people are getting a little emotional and riled up over it when they should just sit tight and try to figure out the best course of action. A lot of people have also claimed that lynching an IG player first is the best thing to do, and I agreed with this too, but I've decided to actually look at the possibilities of how the game will unravel, to see if this is what we really should be doing.
Case 1
Lynch a Red.
Then we are left with:
4 Green
1 Black
Red no longer has any interest in the item game, as they cannot shoot the Black. After Night 1, we'll be left with:
3 Green
1 Black
Assuming Black shoots into the item game, and no one uses a vig-like or medic ability. I feel that from here, finding the black in the game will be manageable, as all we need to do is analyze/scumhunt and lynch him.
Case 2
Lynch a Black.
Then we are left with:
4 Green
1 Red
So, this is a bit different. While Black will no longer have any interest in winning the items, they may still wish to shoot into the game to kill the assured red. (Not sure how likely this is) So, after Night 1, we'll be left with:
1-3 Green
0-1 Red
Assuming Red shoots into the item game, and no one uses a vig-like or medic ability. There are several possibilities here, that really rely on how many shots the red uses, and if black shoots into the game or not.
The best case scenario, is that Black takes out the Red, because then town will just win, no matter how many townies are left standing after Night 1.
The next scenario is Red shoots into the game once, and either Black doesn't shoot, or ends up stacking hits. In that case, we will start Day 2 with 3 Green, and 1 Red, and from here we have 2 more days mininum to find the Red. (Day 2+Day 3), and a maximum of 3 days, if Red continues to only use 1 KP.
However, the worst case scenario is that Red shoots once/twice into the game, and Black shoots once, neither stacking hits, and Black missing Red. Then we're left with 1 or 2 Green and 1 Red. That makes it LYLO for the item game. So while we can still win through scumhunting, we have NO room for error. If we got into this situation and managed to not lynch the Red, the best we could hope for is to medic protect the Green, or hope Black shoots Red as Red finishes off the town, so no one get the items, instead of Red.
Case 3
We lynch a Green.
Then we are left with:
3 Green
1 Red
1 Black
Here, both Red and Black have a good chance of winning the item game, and there are multiple possibilities for how this will play out. After Night 1, we'll be left with:
0-3 Green
0-1 Red
1 Black
Assuming Black always shoots into the item game, and no one uses a vig-like or medic ability.
Best Case Scenario is Black shoots Red, Red doesn't shoot. This leaves us with 3 Town, 1 Black, and we can scumhunt him. This is analogous to Case 1, except for the order Green/Red die.
The next scenario, is Black kills Red, and Red kills 1/2 Green. This will leave us with 1 Black, 1-2 Town. This is LYLO, and if we mislynch, Black gets the items, unless Red figures out who they are and roleblocks/hits them that night, resulting in no faction receiving the item.
The Worst-Case-Scenario, is if Red shoots twice, and Black shoots once, not stacking hits. This leaves us with 1 Red and 1 Black in the morning, and at that point we basically only get to choose which scum faction we'd like to give our items to. If we do manage to get into this situation, we can either lynch one of them, or if there are other scum targets, we can leave them both alive, so that Black kills Red for us, and we can lynch Black the next day, leaving us with 1 extra lynch to use, and making sure Black doesn't kill town that night. If there are no other scum targets though, we can just lynch one of the two confirmed scum players. It will come down to town's judgment, and this would still be a horrid situation for us.
Case 4
No lynch.
After Night 1, we'll be left with:
1-3 Town
1 Black
1 Red
I don't think Red would actually double kill in this situation, as their chances of winning will be pretty low, unless they can figure out who Black is to push for his lynch. So, that realistically leaves us with 2-3 Town. This is probably the most convoluted case, and the only information I can really draw from it is that this might draw the IG out for 1 more day.
Conclusions and Opinions
In my opinion, Lynching into the Item Game is a necessary evil, but we must be very careful that we hit a scum, and not town. Hitting town leaves us at the extremes with either a salvageable condition, where we can just scumhunt the Black, or with an auto-lose. I don't really like having to rely on who scum hits to win the game though, as that doesn't seem like the most reliable way to plan our moves. So, I ask all the item game players to at least provide some kind of justification into who they want to lynch, because as soon as Scum sees you suggesting the lynch of anyone who isn't them, they're going to jump on it automatically. This means Jackal's reason of consensus isn't very good, and I hope it's based on more than that. If Jackal has suggested a green player, both scum will have agreed to it, and then there only remains 1 townie to be convinced. So, a 4/6 agreement that someone is scum, realistically, is either only two town and two scum, or three town and one scum. So, in all actuality, afterward, I would look into the four who are all agreeing to the same lynch, as chances are high that at least one of them are scum.
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On March 27 2011 04:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
So, this is a bit different. While Black will no longer have any interest in winning the items, they may still wish to shoot into the game to kill the assured red. (Not sure how likely this is)
this wont happen.
black's win condition is to outnumber nonblack.
they want to prolong item game as much as possible. they want teams to be reasonably balanced (as opposed to more imbalanced due to controlling 6 items) for as long as possible.
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i would analyze the rest, but i think it is pointless until we see what happens in day and night 1
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On March 27 2011 04:46 annul wrote:
i would analyze the rest, but i think it is pointless until we see what happens in day and night 1
Isn't the point that we CAN'T wait? If we lynch town in the item game we're behind in it and there's a good chance we would lose?
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United States22154 Posts
On March 27 2011 04:46 annul wrote:
i would analyze the rest, but i think it is pointless until we see what happens in day and night 1
You are right, why would we bother analyzing a post that is trying to help us determine who to lynch Day 1 before day two? I mean analyzing posts when they are relevant is for noobs, as is providing backing for your accusations, right?
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On March 27 2011 04:50 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2011 04:46 annul wrote:
i would analyze the rest, but i think it is pointless until we see what happens in day and night 1 Isn't the point that we CAN'T wait? If we lynch town in the item game we're behind in it and there's a good chance we would lose?
That was basically what I was trying to see. Just from how I figured the game could go, we almost have to lynch into the game today, or maybe Day 2 if we think Scum wouldn't kill too much. If we lynch town today, there's a pretty good chance we'll lose.
I personally like the option that relies the least on what scum does. So, firstly, that's lynching into the item game, then not hitting town. If we don't lynch into the game, or we hit town, the ball's in the scum's court, and we basically have to rely on luck to be able to make it a town victory.
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his final conclusion is "we need to kill in item game."
cool, i agree, and this is what i have been saying from the get go.
as for what to do in the future, let's see what the flip is
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On March 27 2011 04:33 annul wrote:
"Annul: Are you sure?
Jackal: Trust me, I am pro
Annul: Ok"
would never happen
I would never try it.
I haven't asked anybody in town to trust me really. I trust 2 others in the item game.
I put forth a proposal for bum to consider.
The ensuing conversation has brought some scum to light and has placed others in the town camp. All in all it's a win for town.
Tack doesn't like it because he's the one I put up for lynch.
Annul doesn't like it because he's got his own agenda.
I have no clue where darm is at. I'm guessing he doesn't like it either.
I did promise to piss off 3 IG game players. I delivered.
The rest of you are just along for the ride. It's bums call now. He and his blue team will make a town decision.
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Barring anything like medics/vigs, but that adds another uncontrollable factor into it, that again, relies a fair bit on luck and the judgment of town. After lynch, I'll probably look at the situation again and maybe try to provide some advice for how power roles should act. Nothing specific, just stuff like, if we kill a town, vig shooting into the IG is probably not the best idea.
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On March 27 2011 04:57 annul wrote:
his final conclusion is "we need to kill in item game."
cool, i agree, and this is what i have been saying from the get go.
as for what to do in the future, let's see what the flip is
My final conclusion is we need to kill in item game, but if we shoot town, we're relying completely on the actions of scum for whether we win or not. We have to try our hardest to kill scum on the first lynch, and how we're deciding the lynch now is just off the reads of the few people in the game. Scum will agree to any lynch that isn't them. Town will agree to any lynch they think is scum. Town will not agree to their own lynch. Scum will not agree to their own lynch. So, when you're basing the lynch off just a few players' decisions in the item game, if you picked wrong, you're going to get the support of two scum automatically, and then all they need to do is convince one more town, that's 4/6. This is why I'd really like to at least see some of the thought process behind what's going on here, because the whole town might get screwed based on the wrong decisions of just a couple people.
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the majority (if not all other five?) of us agree that tackster is a fine kill for tonight.
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On March 27 2011 04:57 annul wrote:
his final conclusion is "we need to kill in item game."
cool, i agree, and this is what i have been saying from the get go.
as for what to do in the future, let's see what the flip is
Oh sorry, I thought his conclusion was we can't mess up our IG lynch --> more info for main thread from the IG game would be nice.
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Man you guys sure do jump around.
Outside of the IG, I have to say tackster has been working his ass off to prove he is town, and in general has gotten much more defense. Personally, I hate the "Lynch me then and you will see I am town" argument. Do not blame your lack of townieness on me, thank you very much.
People in the IG do not have long to live. Would it really be smart for tackster's scumbuddies to go all out in defending him when he is probably going to flip in the next day or so? The fact that jackal has gotten no defense makes it appear that way (strangely the only defense was 2 posts from orgolove and now hes back in the shadows  )
So I do feel that tackster is town and jackal is not.
However, I still stand by how I view the IG game to a degree. If tackster has done something so scummy that it nullifies everything that has been stated, I need to know what that is. Like-wise, if jackal has done something so protown, etc. i need to know.
What I need right now is one target from each IG player. And give me town reads as well.I do NOT need two scum tells as people have pointed out repeatedly that scum will FoS whoever they can.
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On March 27 2011 05:05 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2011 04:57 annul wrote:
his final conclusion is "we need to kill in item game."
cool, i agree, and this is what i have been saying from the get go.
as for what to do in the future, let's see what the flip is My final conclusion is we need to kill in item game, but if we shoot town, we're relying completely on the actions of scum for whether we win or not. We have to try our hardest to kill scum on the first lynch, and how we're deciding the lynch now is just off the reads of the few people in the game. Scum will agree to any lynch that isn't them. Town will agree to any lynch they think is scum. Town will not agree to their own lynch. Scum will not agree to their own lynch. So, when you're basing the lynch off just a few players' decisions in the item game, if you picked wrong, you're going to get the support of two scum automatically, and then all they need to do is convince one more town, that's 4/6. This is why I'd really like to at least see some of the thought process behind what's going on here, because the whole town might get screwed based on the wrong decisions of just a couple people.
Ok yeah, nvm, I was right lol
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On March 27 2011 05:07 annul wrote:
the majority (if not all other five?) of us agree that tackster is a fine kill for tonight.
Alright, I just want confirmation on this from all. Even if two are scum, three of you who are town have a strong feeling that tackster is scum, even with what he has posted in the thread?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On March 27 2011 04:31 chaoser wrote:
Can Red and Black Players PM/communicate privately with each other?
On March 13 2011 03:11 LSB wrote:
What players can PM?
The Red/black/blue players can PM their teammates, the players of the item games can PM each other, and certain roles are granted PM capabilities.
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On March 27 2011 05:10 bumatlarge wrote:Man you guys sure do jump around. Outside of the IG, I have to say tackster has been working his ass off to prove he is town, and in general has gotten much more defense. Personally, I hate the "Lynch me then and you will see I am town" argument. Do not blame your lack of townieness on me, thank you very much. People in the IG do not have long to live. Would it really be smart for tackster's scumbuddies to go all out in defending him when he is probably going to flip in the next day or so? The fact that jackal has gotten no defense makes it appear that way (strangely the only defense was 2 posts from orgolove and now hes back in the shadows ) So I do feel that tackster is town and jackal is not. However, I still stand by how I view the IG game to a degree. If tackster has done something so scummy that it nullifies everything that has been stated, I need to know what that is. Like-wise, if jackal has done something so protown, etc. i need to know. What I need right now is one target from each IG player. And give me town reads as well.I do NOT need two scum tells as people have pointed out repeatedly that scum will FoS whoever they can.
I knew when I put up my plan I would be target #1. I did it anyways. Because it is in towns best interest. Coag is town. LW is town. I am town. I possess towns night KP. I have outlined the 3 separate scenarios that can occur off of a Tackster lynch. I stand by my plan. I stand by my lynch decision.
My target is Tackster.
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Finally off from work for a day. Just wanted to ask the reasoning behind lynching from the item game? It seems kind of stupid statistically speaking. There is a 1/3 chance a player is anti town in both the item game and in the actual game.
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On March 27 2011 05:15 Coagulation wrote:
darmousseh or tack
What did I just tell you not to do lol?
Ugh, I'm probably going to split it down the middle with what IG comes up with and what town is saying, because town has a lot of conviction with the Jackal VS tackster thing.
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EPT
