TL Mafia XXXVII - Page 84

On February 28 2011 04:46 CubEdIn wrote:
Hi again peoples.

Here's a crappy cell-phone pic of yesterday!
+ Show Spoiler +

Now, to the issues at hand.
Obviously, the most pressing issue is LSB vs Barundar.
LSB:
Mostly, the most trouble I have with this is that, if Barundar is right, we have to kill someone who really pushed a red on day 1. That's all.
We shouldn't really do this. Here is why:
- If LSB is town, and he's as good as people say he is, then he will be targeted by mafia, sooner or later.
- If LSB is red, he already outed a team-mate. If mafia is as ballsy as Barundar says, then they might do something equally strange in order to clear LSB. In which case, it spells good for town.

So I have no idea why so many people are going along with this.
At least give LSB one-two more days and see how the game goes. You can't possibly want one of the more experienced players to die, after pushing a red, based entirely on "he could have played this exactly the same if he was red". True, but that's not a convincing argument. Not for me anyway.

There are just two things that make me not dismiss this completely:
1. Harry Potter Mafia, when LSB seemed very, very pro-town in the thread, and he was scum. It can be said that he was Snape so he might have known he was ultimately town-aligned, but at the time he was in our scum team, yet he played very pro-town in the thread (or at least make it seem that way). This could be a more advanced version of that.
2. The "once he flips red" made it seem extremely confident. Which is a bit weird since it was day one. I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be that confident in day 1.

Barundar:
I don't know if Barundar is red or town, but I honestly don't think it is something that mafia would do.
Let's think for a second here, take what Barundar said:
The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff.
It's kinda hard to make up so much stuff just to try and sink LSB, and even if you do (say, Barundar is red and LSB is town), then it doesn't make any sense because Barundar would die next night for sure, so it would basically be two mafia down just to kill LSB.

So if he is red (and they want LSB dead), it's just a really bad move, because once LSB flips town, he's dead.
If he's town, it's an even worse move, because if LSB is town, then Barundar will most likely get lynched as well, and you will have wasted two lynches, and two of the better players and get absolutely nowhere.

So here's what I'm saying:
1. Think really well about who to vote for.
2. FoS on those who voted on LSB with saying "oh wow that was a good analysis" but didn't really bother to THINK about it and the other possiblities and the outcomes. I'm sure there's at least a few mafia among them who were oh-so-glad an experienced townie is being targeted.
Here are a few examples:

Yeah, that's a good freaking reason. Why would you bother thinking for yourself when someone posted a 3-part-post? No mafia writes that much!


This seems scummiest to me:
"mafia probably just got some lucky snipes" - something of a 'reverse-gloating', being happy with the kills but trying to look very pro-town by saying almost nothing.
"Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players" - umm, yeah, we can tell that based on... ummm.... ?! slip?!
"I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plausible" - i like the risk of killing one of the best town players on the 50-50% he's red.
(I'm saying 50-50 because he said it's "plausible", not likely or anything else)

Of course, my whole theory tumbles if LSB is indeed red. But we are basing this solely on the idea that the mafia team pushed Annul to a lynch on day one, which is a massively ballsy thing to do.
I'm not saying LSB is town, but at least give it more time to develop, just don't claim to him or whatever if you don't trust him.

---

As for Jackal, I didn't think he was scum, and I wanted to post a few bits based on Mafia 36 that made me think it was unlikely that he is red, but then he gave up on Gryph and voted LSB based on the fact that it's either him or Barundar, again, being certain that one of them is red, which no player should do so early in the game.

That's about enough for now, as I still want to look over the posts and see if I can find someone worthy of my vote.
But unless something really scummy pops up, it's definitely not gonna be LSB or Barundar. Not this time band-wagon-man!

On March 03 2011 16:09 Barundar wrote:
First of all: congratulations to us.

Second of all: LOL at people screaming lynch GMarshal. GMarshal listed his PM’s with Seraph, which doesn’t looks forged, and which several people encouraged him to. GMarshal has been playing pro town all game and has been in contact with a number of people. He posted the PM’s in the thread, and has been clear in his reasoning.

Now I agree GMarshal hasn’t been playing the best, I even prodded him about his vote on JBright, and he would rather lynch LastArgument than seraph. But you are all putting way too much emphasis on people being linked together over actual behavioural analysis.

Third: LOL at people apologising to LSB, and LOL at LSB wanting medic protection. You think someone isn’t mafia because of 1 vote? While he does get some brownie points, LSB’s play is still mafia. Difference is he didn’t bus Seraph.

Let me break the lynch down for you: LSB threw a vote early on to Seraph. But he was casting doubt on the actual analysis while doing so, and he didn’t sound convinced. LSB doesn’t actually bother talking about Seraph or convince others to vote him. Instead he spams at best, and tries to divert at worst:


LSB didn’t believe in the actual lynch, and he certainly didn’t try to convince others. The only thing that gives LSB brownie points for this lynch, is to have had the votes on the right target, but it’s not like mafia can’t park a vote on their own afk team mate, who has strong cases against him. They just don’t want others to do the same. And LSB didn’t push for Seraph, he only put doubt on the case against him. Let’s not forget it was LSB who wanted GMarshal to publish Seraph’s PM’s.

Now who did push for Seraph?
Foolishness, obviously
Why
Myself + Show Spoiler +
Jackal58 + Show Spoiler +
Ser Aspi + Show Spoiler +

All of these are most likely town, along with deconduo who started the day 1 bandwagon. I encourage to protect any of them, but favourite is Foolishness.

So, who should we lynch tomorrow? LSB?
If we have a vigilante out there, then kill LSB. He is still scum, and town has huge problems seeing through his play. He is exactly the kind of scum that you need to use vigi shot on, he is high profile and charismatic, making him difficult to lynch. We will most likely have to drag him to lylo if he doesn’t get vigi killed.

There is someone I think is a way better lynch target for tomorrow, Kevconsim.
Kevcon has been bandwagoning every day, with little reasoning. Upon his suspicious unvote yesterday, I decided to pressure him in PM’s to see if I could actually force an opinion out of him:









Message from me he never replied to:


It’s quite impossible to force an opinion out of him, and it’s funny how he couldn’t be forced to vote Seraph over LD even when he based his vote on post count. Objectively post count should lead to voting seraph.