Please don't kill me first, mafia, just cause I'm an easy-read.
TL Mafia XXXVI
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bumatlarge
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Please don't kill me first, mafia, just cause I'm an easy-read. | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 22 2011 16:46 flamewheel wrote: Clues are going to soooooooo screw this game up in a good way. Oh no, there isn't another bum this game is there? | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 23 2011 11:49 LunarDestiny wrote: Qatol? His profile mention using gun is stupid and using duct tape is smart. His profile pic is very black... bingo, the duct tape/dexter quotes and the pic make it pretty clear. Not going to sit back here and nitpick, so... KAV is the only mayor candidate? It seems he's been making this case before the game started, so it's not a mafia induced plan so far. He looks like he'd spend a lot of time in the thread judgin by his hard work on that post. All pluses! But how smart is he? What games has he played before and how did he act? I won't be running for mayor, but I will if this dude isn't relatively clever, I'd make a point to run him out. It's better to have a good player as mayor regardless of alignment then someone who you know might be prone to mistakes. RESEARCHIN TIME! | ||
bumatlarge
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/confirm Well. I've quickly scanned through Mercmafia and BCE, and I like what I see. Very active townie who takes care in what he says. He'd probably assume a DarthThienMayor persona if he is scum. Not very flexible, but hard to get rid of. Just need to keep an eye on him. All in all, a very capable mayor. He has my vote. BTW divinek should be our first lynch+ Show Spoiler + | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 23 2011 16:09 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: /Confirm Ok Kav you've definetly got my vote atm :D it's late so I'll look at the clue tomorrow but I've heard what others have said and I like the Qatol reasoning. If Kav gets the clue that'll be a good point in his favor (let's face it, right now he only has a fancy speech and I'd like a mayor with good scumhunting skills). It looks like Bum did some good background research so that does make me feel good about Kav. Speaking of Bum, why do you want to lynch divinek? Even if it was a joke I'd like to hear why you said it. Well I suppose I could lay off him this game. Since I did completely WRECK HIS FACE in PYP3. (Trying to hide behind people I am already shooting ) It's OMGUS in it's purest form, untainted in the realm of mafia. One does not simply FoS for this kind of OMGUS. You ignore it and hope that wrath of that magnitude doesn't put you on it's list of things it wants to disintegrate. I'd take it as joke, but as a helpful hint, keep it in mind if me and him start talking. Relationships between players is very important. For instance, if bill murray and ace start having a civilized conversation, something is very wrong (BM being civilized at all should keep you on your toes :X) | ||
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On January 23 2011 16:25 kitaman27 wrote: I would like to announce my intention to run for Mayor on behalf of the Kavdragon sucks Party! Do not allow yourselves to be deceived by his well thought out posts and eagerness to lead the town to victory. I promise a campaign that delivers straight facts, rather than the propaganda spewing machine he has created. FACT: Kavdragon was mafia in Pokemafia. kitaman27 has never been mafia. FACT: Kavdragon has never correctly landed a vig hit. kitaman27 has never missed a vig hit* *while not being role blocked FACT: First is the worst. Second is the best. Third is the one with the treasure chest. Now allow me to uncover some shocking revelations: Using pro-town technology, I was able to uncover an additional hidden arrow. You heard it here first folks, kavdragon is a mod-confirmed scum. For those too lazy to translate here is what that means: I'm pretty sure I've seen similar symbols in a Call of Duty game in COMMUNIST RUSSIA! That's right, Kavdragon is a COMMUNIST. And what color do communists love? Red. What color is scum? Red. What color is the communist scum Kavdragon? Red + Show Spoiler [Text Endorsements] + On August 9 1974 11:63 VER wrote: Kav's the One. Kav for mayor. On January 20 1961 11:63 Node wrote: I Like Kav. Vote for Kav. On January 22 2011 11:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm Meapak_Ziphh and I approve this message. On January 22 2011 11:26 SiNiquity wrote: I'm SiNiquity and I approve this message. On January 21 2011 08:42 LSB wrote: KAV 4 MAYOR! I'll make you a mspaint poster!!!! Hey look, he was even kind enough to provide the entire scum team! As mayor, these would be my first 5 targets. In addition, as I predict to be the number one scum target as mayor, I nominate Kavdragon as my bodyguard to soak up all the bullets aimed in my direction. Has anyone noticed he never indicated which side would be victorious? How convenient. Let me fix that for you. I don't think your vigilante skills are something you should be flaunting but I missed kav's play in pokemafia. If you could enlighten me, all I remember is a lot of townies pushing townies with mafia not having to do much. And that gabe dude. He was hilarious. By the way Node... Is that voting thread around And I think profile's still have to be linked in the OP? Shame on me if you are fixing this already | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 24 2011 05:38 Beneather wrote: Alright we have 2 people running for mayor. 1. KavDragon 2. Kitaman KavDragon has brought up strong points of having scum bodyguards which most agree to. Aswell other stated if the mayor dies and without any death of the bodyguards then the bodyguards are scum and we can just lynch them. Kitaman hasn't brought up any points in his run for mayor. It's all basically saying that we should vote for him because he is better than KavDragon etc. Also saying that KavDragon is red because he's a communist russian etc. These are the only 2 running so far and if I had to vote now it'd be KavDragon since he had brought up a lot of good points and could be a huge asset to the town. There are a few more ideas that Mr.Wiggles had to that I agree with but I think KavDragon can incorporate those in to his plans. RoL is as well I believe. | ||
bumatlarge
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Gonna put my vote on kav, and if he can spot a few more clues on different folks and finalize his statement on picking BG's, my vote is staying there. | ||
bumatlarge
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I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. On a BG plan + Show Spoiler + We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5. Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles. Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets. Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no. Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept. Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens. Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid. Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan. We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back. So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups. 5 mafia, 2-3SKs. 6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs 7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely) With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor. Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him. | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 26 2011 08:19 BrownBear wrote: This could work, I'm not clear on why you don't think mafia will try to falseclaim vet? You never really got to that point, unless I'm missing something. Oh I forgot thanks BB <3 lol I believe mafia numbers don't exceed 6, I think it is likely that mafia would lose a KP if they false-claimed. Maybe or maybe not, but it wouldn't help them. I think it would be much more effective for them to stack 2 hits on the vet, who is less likely to be protected, and keep their member. Eventually that mafia BG will die, if mayor isn't scum, and if mafia false-claim and don't kill mayor (which would be awesome) we could eventually census vets. At least thats how I see it. | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 26 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote: Don't think that's an option. What isn't? RNG mayor? There are ways, as in everyone posts a number between 1-2, and we add them up. The probability of scum landing a mayor this way is miniscule, and attempting to tamper with it will most likely get screwed. Here I'll start. 2 I cannot change it, and now d3 will be our choice until the next person posts a number. If we set a deadline, mafia can't wait til the last minute. | ||
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bumatlarge
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On January 26 2011 08:46 ilovejonn wrote: The only thing that would have fucked us over from the start are people that are trying to make themselves mayor RIGHT BEFORE THE DEADLINE. If you guys were thinking about being mayor, why didn't you guys start your campaign earlier instead of letting it go to other people's hands? Okay we voted for a guy that sounds pretty pro-town for mayor, wait it suddenly sounds bad at the last second possible. Really? I never said either of the candidates was pretty pro-town, I'm saying I underestimated mayor, and I expected more candidates. Since I don't see why mafia wouldn't give it a shot, that leaves one of the two candidates as mafia. I came here as early as I could, and everyone is putting focus on the BGs when we have a lot of time for that. I would like to extend the voting time for mayor if that is possible. Then we can have more time to see if this is really what we want to do. If people really want to pick kav or RoL, then I guess we will take our chances. At least consider it. And no one is making themselves mayor... If someone like amber who likes neither candidate doesn't really have much of a choice, considering the other mayor wants to lynch him, he has to pick kav. If I can't extend it then it's not like I could upset e votes anyway. If I'm distracting the conversation from your precious BG discussion, then I'll take my chances lol. | ||
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On January 26 2011 09:44 TheAldo wrote: Bum you have really started to sound awfully scummy in like the last 5 posts. You honestly don't think one of the candidates is mafia? You are just gonna sit there and vote and not say anything about what is happening? I mean if I talked about your last 5 posts, I'd have to use your /confirm post as well. What does that say. I suppose since Kav is going to be mayor, I'll put a lot more time into clues right now and then analysis later. Kav is lynching Original I assume, which I am not against with the good amount of clues found. RoL wants to kill amber, but I don't believe he is set on that. On January 26 2011 10:05 Impervious wrote: If we're worried about one of them being a mafia, forcing the job of bodyguard on the other is fucking dumb..... Regardless of whether we make the right choice or not..... Yeah... the opposing candidate is the last person I would pick. | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 26 2011 10:47 Kavdragon wrote: Right, so long story short, my computer crashed and I lost the response I put together over the past hour. Sucks, but I'm not going to hang on it. Here's the short version from my memory: RNG is stupid. Bum is Scum. BrownBear is being dumb for following Bum. I'm considering lynching Bum, if the town agrees. Otherwise I will follow through with the ON lynch, so as not to upset people. lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go. If you kill me, I can guarantee you are red. If you are town, please start thinking about where I am coming from with this. Roughly 24 hours ago, I thought there were 4 candidates. It would be pointless to bring it up. Now there have been two for nearly all of the vote process, I am a little worried. I thought maybe I could get an extension on the time to give this a little more thought and buy that last guy some time. The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation, but maybe with 12 more hours we could get another candidate, and give people more of a choice. | ||
bumatlarge
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I think if we could spare a night on SKs so we can can determine the night kills better, it would be useful, but I what your saying. | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 26 2011 11:33 kitaman27 wrote: Once we have the mafia number, we also have the SK number unless there is a vig hit. Why would checking if the lynched was a SK be more helpful than checking if he was scum? Almost true, but we are assuming that #ofM/2 is the formula, which may or may not be the case. If we all feel safe assuming that, then you're right | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 26 2011 11:46 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Yes, but does it matter if we know how many SK there are right away, or just that we killed them? The SK number almost helps mafia as much as town, because if they know they are all dead they don't have to worry about wasting hits. Just saying mafia, will be able to determine SK numbers anyway, so having an early census on them wouldn't tell mafia what they don't already know, and I'm not sure. We would use it on night 2, where all the SKs most likely would not have died. On January 26 2011 11:49 kitaman27 wrote: Oh, so this might not be true? On January 20 2011 11:44 LSB wrote: Wait... what?? I sec as I talk to node. Mafia KP is just the standard [#Mafia Alive]/2 rounded up. Ah I just found this, didn't see it in the OP. So now I'm a little confused by what LSB said. | ||
bumatlarge
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First Part Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain. It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain. Mr. Zergling + Show Spoiler + Favorite Movie scene: There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going. There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing. Is it raining? Is it snowing? Is a hurricane a blowing? Not a speck of light is showing so the danger must be growing. Are the fires of hell a glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing. And they're certainly not showing any signs that they are slowing! Kavdragon pointed this out. From a movie, obviously, but it's about a rowboat (life is but a dream )in some form a of precipitation. Closest I could find relating to a movie. Also he has the poem "The Raven" which is probably a long shot, but "just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain." could be something. A lot of people have videos, but none of them are too relevant. After Original Name, this seems fairly strong, and I looked hard, but couldn't find much on this part for anyone else. I don't think Kav really likes me now lol. Here. On January 26 2011 08:30 bumatlarge wrote: What isn't? RNG mayor? There are ways, as in everyone posts a number between 1-2, and we add them up. The probability of scum landing a mayor this way is miniscule, and attempting to tamper with it will most likely get screwed. Here I'll start. 2 I cannot change it, and now d3 will be our choice until the next person posts a number. If we set a deadline, mafia can't wait til the last minute. On January 26 2011 08:33 BrownBear wrote: Ok, I guess I'll bite. 1. On January 26 2011 08:37 bumatlarge wrote: Let's just see how many people do it. Current number is 3, and numbers don't count after 8:00 est which is in 1&1/2 hours. GMarshal will be our mayor! :D I gave an idea to determine mayor randomly off the top of my head. You are really gonna drill me for anRNG plan to demonstrate how a mayor would be picked? I knew I would have to extend the time if it was to hold any water, so if you legitimately think I was trying to sway it away from you in that time, I don't know what to say. Hope you are gonna post more then this if you do an analysis. I wasn't there early enough to give my opinion that 2 candidates weren't enough to mean anything, but I stand by that. | ||
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before monday bum: OK 3 candidates (i missed replacements like a genius), town is alright because kav did run before roles, and town can still win with good clue hunting and analysis. after monday bum: holy shit. It would be very hard for town to win with scum mayor, and there are only two candidates. Everyone is disccussing BGs instead... I better bring this to light. Oh look 3 hours left it doesn't matter what I do. I think thats my reasoning in a nutshell. Things I didnt put together: Dr.H could have been scum candidate, but he didnt generate much hype from anybody. Also Kav is keeping the accusation based on what pertains to the immediate FoS, and I believe a mafiaso mayor would have bagged some clues and more specifics to my analysis to try to nail a 2nd lynch. It seems kav is willing to believe me if I provide the correct arguement, which is good for town, becuase you and I can tbe more prone to trust him more, and we can avoid a very bad mislynch. I suggest we put our coins in kavs korner. Meds should prot the BGs, as it gives us the best shot at winning for now. ill be around later to go more in depth and answer questions. | ||
bumatlarge
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On January 26 2011 15:03 Kavdragon wrote: My Case for Bumatlarge: On January 22 2011 01:35 bumatlarge wrote: Please don't kill me first, Post analysis: Lol, wut? So it would be better to have a really good player who is scum in the mayor seat, than a bad townie? In standard set-up, yes. Good players can't make mistakes and play them off. They will be pressured to play town to the best of their abilities. New or bad mayors tend to make lots of mistakes, and the "legitimate mistake" card comes up a lot and it only hurts town's overall play. Contradicts his earlier statement. He says that he doesn't want a clue-crapshoot, but the only way to avoid this is analysis, something that he hasn't done any of. Says he doesn't want a crap shoot, but wants to RNG the mayor. He says that RoL OR Kav is scum, but is unwilling to do an analysis of the two of us. Just two people. This game is based off of analysis, not probability. I think it's fairly clear to see these are posts made with different information. In every other set-up with mayor I have played, there are multiple work-arounds to a scum mayor, ways to check what they are doing with their powers is pro-town. I mistakenly assumed mayor was similar to these games, where mafia mayors happened all the time. Mayor is the only role that receives sound information about dead players. We really have no way to check if you are lying, and no way to find this information on our own. I think it's pretty clear the gravity of the mayoral situation did not sink in until much later. I was unfortunately a very late-bloomer to the that realization. It then occurred having only 2 candidates would likely result in a mafia win, which I'm still uncertain about. Whether you prefer anaylsis or probability, it doesn't change the fact that there is no downside for mafia to win the election. You would have to be severely naive to think they wouldn't 99 times out of 100 give it a shot. Please read the mayor description again and tell me mafia won't run for that with a straight face. Confident in your abilities, but at this time, if you decided to keep tabs on when these were all being posted, I wasn't sincerely worried town would lose if you did happen to be mafia. Read that link about Darth in my quote above. If that was this set-up, and he won, he could legitimately state "I am mafia, and will be lynching myself first" and mafia would have been in a better position then they were in that set-up. You can't disagree with that. On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. On January 26 2011 09:13 bumatlarge wrote: I never said either of the candidates was pretty pro-town Changes his opinion without saying why. Why would he so confidantly vote for someone he didn't think was town? Putting words in mouth? You being very selective with my quotes, but I don't mind. Here, let's match the up. + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2011 14:56 bumatlarge wrote: It's better to have a good player as mayor regardless of alignment then someone who you know might be prone to mistakes. On January 23 2011 15:44 bumatlarge wrote: Well. I've quickly scanned through Mercmafia and BCE, and I like what I see. Very active townie who takes care in what he says. He'd probably assume a DarthThienMayor persona if he is scum. Not very flexible, but hard to get rid of. Just need to keep an eye on him. All in all, a very capable mayor. He has my vote. On January 25 2011 12:52 bumatlarge wrote: Gonna put my vote on kav, and if he can spot a few more clues on different folks and finalize his statement on picking BG's, my vote is staying there. This Bum seems to be confident he can win the game regardless of mayor's alignment. Clearly, he is overlooking mayor's abilities. If this Bum was scum, what exactly is he trying to do? Downplay the role of mayor certainly! He doesn't necessarily say Kav is town, but with this mindset, he feels it won't hamper him or the town if Kav was not. On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in. I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. ... On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. On January 26 2011 09:13 bumatlarge wrote: I never said either of the candidates was pretty pro-town This Bum is severely different. He realizes how bad it would be for mafia to have mayor. He sounds not at all confident that town will not win if mayor is red. His decisions are rash and he apparently is very quick to point out he never had an opinion on the alignment of the candidates. He brings needless attention to himself that completely contradicts his previous motives as scum; to underplay the value of mayor. He doesn't really care if he gains any FoS about saying one of the candidates must be scum. He's either a mafia with amnesia, or he's a townie who had a sudden realization about something. Starts a concerted push for RNG'ing the mayor. As has been pointed out before it's a terrible plan that is very easily influenced by the mafia. He also starts this with 1.5 hours before the end of the day. I did push that with the intention of extending the time to allow more thought on RNG which I believed to be a decent choice for town to take, though i do see the method I choose could lead to some problems with people picking too late and what not. But if time was extended, we could have generated a lot more discussion on to the election, which is much more valuable then discussing the way BGs are picked, though I am not saying that isn't an important facet. I was being purposefully impulsive and if I brought the focus to the really important matter and in the process I put myself out there, so be it. Backs out of his plan, and tries to dismiss it as only an idea. This was not the feeling I got from the posts, and judging by the fact that BB followed along, I'd say that he got the same message from Bum. Right after my time extension got denied. I don't regret posing the idea like something I was trying to carry out. People tend to lost track of what they are talking about. Look at aidnai's post. That's pretty sad how much attention that got. This is the core of your argument. (bolded) You are basing your argument off of something that may or may not be true. Sound familiar? Also, from what I've gathered from other games, the typical meta from mafia recently has been "Lie back and let the town destroy itelf" not "Activly engage the town". But this is wifom too. I COMPLETELY DISAGREE. If a person can increase your chances of winning at least 3-fold, with just the risk of putting yourself out there. I cannot fathom why they would not. That's all I have. I am not just assuming they had a candidate, I am certain they did. Alright, if mafia didn't run for mayor, then the entire mafia team is stupid. This isn't WIFOM, because in one case I am right, and in another town wins anyway. Unfortunately, being right isn't very satisfying for me, I'd rather town winning with my help. That's why I play. This is my contribution at the moment. Ending with that, I will concentrate my focus on the upcoming clues. Of course, I will analyze everyone I put a clue on. Diagnosis This looks like scummy play to me. Perhaps overly scummy, but this could be explained: This game has no flipping, which means that the mafia do not need to worry about being dissasociated with eachother as much. If Bum and BB are scum, they don't need to worry about agreeing with eachother, because if one of them flips, the town still knows nothing about their alignment. This could very easily make a mafia more cocky, and forward with their posting. Conclusion: Bumatlarge is scum. I wouldn't feel I was playing the game properly if I wasn't forward with my opinions. Perhaps I should be less forward? Never thought of myself as cocky either. I'll take it as a compliment. | ||
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On January 27 2011 09:04 kitaman27 wrote: Just curious, what indicated to you that Kavdragon was more likely scum than RoL. And since that was the case, why would you wait for someone suggesting RoL rather than voting him in the first place. Initially I thought Kav running before he got his alignment was better, and figured Dr.H could have been mafia candidate, and it would be very suspicious for decon to continue the campaign, but rather then look at it as his chances of rolling mafia, I looked at how many people really tried to win against him. I thought this when whoever suggested RoL instead, and RoL was really the only person vs Kav, I didn't mind switching. RoL would have to be a pretty poor shot at a mafia candidate. After night ends, I want to try to spend the time I have left looking at clues and analyzing, so I'd prefer to answer curious people right now. | ||
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On January 27 2011 09:49 Impervious wrote: Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. But he is right, during that period of time of the RNG debacle, I didn't read into either of them, which is probably the scummiest thing I did. We shouldn't be lynching based on pure information of who did what, but mostly of who is saying what, and how they correspond to clues. I have a bad habit of relying on information over analysis and I suggest you shake that now, especially in this set-up. Kav is saying, we can't just say one of them is mafia without analysis, which I agree with. If you want to judge Kav or RoL, you should take at least as much consideration into what you analyze about them then what you get from information that inevitably leads to WIFOM at this stage. | ||
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On January 27 2011 10:09 Jackal58 wrote: I'm quite fluent in drunk speak. Bum is not drunk. Whether he is a female alien is irrelevant to the problem at hand. You were one of the ones to attempt to mount a mayoral campaign. You're worthy of close observation. I think it's safe to say I had a beer or two, but I think I have a beer or two every time I post. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Brief Overview # of posts: 36 Ran for mayor, and has posted once since mayor was picked. In Depth On January 25 2011 18:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Yeah that's true. I think we haven't really discussed how important census is either. Obviously the first night we should check to see how many mafia there are so we can periodically check our progress. I suggest every other night we check mafia and figure something else out that is useful to do. My current thoughts are N1 check all mafia count. N2 we check serial killer count. That should give us an idea of the KP count. It might even give us insight into clues if we understand how many of the night kills are ALWAYS going to be attributed to the SK's. From previous games if the mafia KP formula is X/2 = KP where X is total mafia members then each night KP/clues will alternate between the players while SK's own their KP solely and we don't have to worry about overlapping. I think the best way to attempt to use census is constantly alternating between checking SK's and checking mafia total count that way we kind of have an idea of how many mafia/SK are left and can judge our progress and get an idea of a mafia pushed a bad lynch thinking we couldn't tell the difference. The reasoning being that I expect mafia to attempt to be more aggressive in this set up since there is no flips so they don't face true repercussions for their actions. The only issue with this plan is it relies on the mayor being honest and town aligned. Its another reason we need a town aligned mayor, census will give us a HUGE advantage that I woudln't want to throw away. Personally I think Kav is probably a townie so I am not too worried about either one of us getting it. Although I do find it strange that the mafia aren't vying for such a powerful role which is what makes me a bit suspicious of Kav, but my read on him is he wouldn't be comfortable enough to do this his first game as mafia and I will stick to that I suppose. Tomorrow before I go to work I am going to try to do some actual clue and behavioral analysis as well as look over the OG guy. Since Day ends tomorrow one of us has to decide on a lynch target for sure. RoL is definitely aware of what census does, but rather then see it as a necessity, it's just an advantage. States he believes Kav is town, and is apathetic to who wins. And also, Kav has been mafia before I believe, but that might be my fault if RoL read my post on Kav, as I missed the game he was red. Gives general info on what usually is the set-up. Promises A&C (analysis and clues). I straightforward candidate ATM. On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more". Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting. I will switch my vote back too kav. I personally feel RoL is underestimating masons here. Getting recruited means you are in contact with a confirmed townie if roles hold true. Though with no-flip, and census being focused on mafia, it would be difficult to refute a fake-claim. Say on day 3, someone might say "Oh a mason PM'd me and he is contact with DT," we don't have much to check this, as a DT won't confirm anything by checking proclaimee. Agh enough, this is about RoL. He doesn't want town to focus all the info between a small group, which seems unlikely, as mayor can safely give census details publicly. And A&C can be done by everyone. If a mason is able to connect things, he should. On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason. So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more. "Everyone should A&C!" No wonder Kav is getting ansy with people. Perhaps if RoL made an actual effort. on Amber, instead of playing the "I want to FoS you but I'm not going to" game. On January 25 2011 13:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Kav, my entire platform is not to put all your eggs in one potentially scum basket. By revolving everything around the mayor you are dooming the town. Stop with the stupidity. I am leaning towards Amber[LighT] for my Day 1 lynch. "Yeah Kav don't be stupid, let town's overwhelming analyzing be our focal point!........ By the way this is the person I want to lynch. Cyas" :/ Doubt I need to say much. On January 25 2011 13:08 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I remember a while ago they used to ban that in games. I guessed we stopped though. Running before the game started is stupid and doesn't give you shit to analyze. They can use it as a point of trust when they could of lucked their way into a strong mafia position. Well, I tried to not consider this when I was determining between Kav and RoL. RoL just plain doesn't like it! Not one bit! On January 25 2011 13:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: To answer this. I generally don't like voting for myself in an election, I feel like its bad taste. But if people are going to think I am conceding the position when I just pushing for it then I will change my vote. What a charlatan! Praise his deeds! Another post that isn't analysis on clues or behavior. If kav posted this, I would have ignored it in my analysis, but RoL doesn't get that luxury. On January 25 2011 04:49 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: To answer what you said amber, the reason I responded about my playstyle was to save drh the time of reading about what I do as mafia. I don't think I spent too much time discrediting him, all I really said was he could be a really dangerous mayor, especially if hes mafia. And I didn't see the day 1 lynch thing in the OP. A lot of "how I play" and "why I do" If people started to doubt your actions, I'd be one of the first to defend them, but seeing as you have yet to do much, well I have nothing to defend. Now, if he did say it was too early to analyze, I'd cut slack, but there are clues on the table. On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you. As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created. I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom. Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why. In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches. Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die. Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck. DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk. Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor. Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it. Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia. Here we are, let's break it down. "As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do." :/ grave digging. I'd say you are being extremely conservative this game, when you propose your lynch based on when a person you know isn't supposed to be posting, and praising your opposing candidate for his levelheadedness. A summary of this post: I am a smart player. You will be able to see that I am not mafia through my arguments. I am tired. Everyone WILL analyze, or we lose. Dr. H is to tunneled in his thought process, dangerous mayor no matter his alignment. Kav is good, but has no experience for this sort of thing. I am the obvious choice. Let's all analyze! FOR SCOTLAND! I believe that to be accurate. On January 24 2011 16:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh and as for my general apathy, I am just tired as hell lately. When does the day end anyway? Duuuuude.... if you tired you could just sit back and not run for mayor. I mean maybe you honestly think there is nothing to analyze? On January 24 2011 16:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: God, I am so dumb. I can't believe I didn't put those together lol While it is a mistake, it is reassuring for RoL's sake. He is tired apparently, it's not just an excuse. While I am trying to get over my information fix, knowing the game you are playing is the first step in the process of being a good townie. This is a bit hypocritical for me to talk about, so I won't say anymore. On January 24 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: My platform would be self explanatory. I am a decent scumhunter, a high n1 hit target. That's about it. either you want me as a leader or you don't. Either way I am fine with it. I don't consider it mattering that much which is why I didn't go all out with mspaint and shit. Smart play here but at the same time... As mafia I would kinda expect RoL not to push the envelope in trying to get the win. As town, I think he would normally give a rebuttal on a superior way to do what Kav is doing, and carry through with it. On other players, I would say it is vice-versa, but I believe this doesn't give RoL leeway if it isn't a small tell for him in particular. On January 26 2011 13:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh well, so I lost the election. Kav what are you going to do with Census? I'm going to go ahead and say RoL is not active at this time, and I'm reluctant to give anybody shit, for what they do in their time. I hope to see he is rested up and comes back with less invigorating speeches about analyzing, and more analyses that inspire analysis. That said, RoL fits the glove. I stand by what I said about mafia having a candidate no matter what. 5 mafia means RoL would have about 4 votes. I dismissed him because of his low numbers, but then again, he wouldn't have his team "put all their eggs in one basket" to use RoL's own words. He gave Mayor a shot, knowing if he was mayor, he would have a free game. He saw Kav's dedication, knew he was town with superior numbers and apparently a lot more vitality. Clue linking I believe RoL was the mafia candidate, and my good friend kita was nice enough to find this first. On January 27 2011 11:17 kitaman27 wrote: First thing that comes to mind points to RoL. Murder scene could be the road less traveled. Something. On January 27 2011 11:28 darmousseh wrote: I quickly glanced through all of the of the profiles and the only hint i could find was in RoL's profile which would correspond to the story Closer, let me elaborate. RoL's poems are taken from R. Frost and L. Hughes respectively. Both poem might have pertinence to the initial day 1 clue. Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain. It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain. Hughes quote about dreams seems subtle, but a dream deterred that festers? Maybe an english major can enlighten me. From what my memory tells me, Robert Frost is famous for his descriptions. An example. + Show Spoiler + Tree at my window, window tree, My sash is lowered when night comes on; But let there never be curtain drawn Between you and me. Vague dream-head lifted out of the ground, And thing next most diffuse to cloud, Not all your light tongues talking aloud Could be profound. But tree, I have seen you taken and tossed, And if you have seen me when I slept, You have seen me when I was taken and swept And all but lost. That day she put our heads together, Fate had her imagination about her, Your head so much concerned with outer, Mine with inner, weather. I think day 1 clues need to be vague, so if I was to make a vague clue, I would take the author of one of RoL's poems and base it on what he would make a clue. If Frost doesn't write about trees and nature, then I am homeowner. The first part of day 1 and Meapak's death are fine examples of something like this. + Show Spoiler + Some nights I thirst for real blood Every city has its dark place, the area that no one in their right mind will go. Ours is the forest, the woods that loom in the center. Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there, and certainly no one would venture there in the night. But tonight, the forest stirs. Its solitude is intruded upon. For real knives The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. For real cries And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... And then the flash of steel from real guns Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body. The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone. This whole section in a forest is just about what I would expect. I have no comment for the bolded words referring to darkness and black. I am not certain clues would be split up, but the drying blood could very well point to what darm said. So, to summarize what I have learned. ANALYSIS RoL is a tired candidate who needs to run for mayor. Speaks of what town should do, but hasn't supplied of anything yet. He loses and does his best to lose as little face as possible. INFORMATION Run a campaign to deny town mayor. I'm certain mafia would have given it a shot. Try to make it legitimate looking and not pour to many resources into it. CLUES Poems mostly linking to Frost's forests and nature, and Hughes dreams. Possibly drying blood. I believe RoL is mafia. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 27 2011 13:12 Kavdragon wrote: Anyone going to counterclaim? Not that there can't be two role blockers, but it does make things more interesting. (Actually, Has anyone seen a setup with 2 role blockers?) We know a RB is in the game, and I doubt there would be 2. I'm sure RB can refrain from using there ability. If RoL is mafia, I don't see how this would help him, as you should give RB a shot, and this doesn't confirm much about him. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 27 2011 13:26 kitaman27 wrote: @bum, I question the timing of your analysis. With exception of the clues, all that information was available pre-election. Yet until now, you have insisted kavdragon was the more scummy of the two. Why wait until now to jump on your target? -Your good friend kita I wanted to post it in conjunction with any clues I could connect to RoL, which people started to find before I even started the analysis. I did not make the connection before tonight, but putting that analysis together really gave me a solid lead on an already stated notion of mine. I even put my vote on RoL, so I wasn't planning this. I want to see RoL's response before I put my vote anywhere, and we have 48 hours, so I will give another tomorrow on Kav, and I forsee good things in his future. You should try this analysis stuff, it's pretty enlightening. -Kita's good friend, Bum | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 28 2011 01:55 darmousseh wrote: Ok so with kav saying there are 5 mafia, and there being probably 1 SK left, (ON was either an SK or mafia, doesn't really matter). That means 2 kp for mafia and 1 kill for SK. What probably happened. SK and mafia happen to pick the same target. SK ends up being the killer. Read this carefully. I read this as, SK kills meapak. mafia tries to kill meapak, but SK already did it so he just shrudders and continues on. Mafia kills thealdo. There is no indication that the person that witnessed the incident and thealdo are the same person. From my reading of the story, they are probably different people. From the clues that have been posted, so far here are my conclusions. RebirthOfLegend is an SK. Nemesis is scum. My reasoning for RoL being an SK is that he has been apprehensive about everything and initially didn't vote himself as mayor. The reason he ended up deciding to try for mayor at all is to prevent a scum from being mayor since he thought there was a possibility that kav was scum. He also is very active so far and has helped more with analysis than a mafia would, but there clues against him are present in the story and he can't deny it. Since he is acting on his own, he has very little support from mafia players and is kinda being surrounded. If he was truly scum, then he would have probably put more effort into becoming mayor. Nemsis, then by elimination, is the scum. He is desperately trying to combat all information we gather in clues. Here are some recent posts. Almost all of his posts have a negative attitude towards the value of clues and the value of things which would help townies get more information about SKs. He has provided 1 post which attempted to find clues on the killer and in that post he said Yet he is basically the only one proposing that the analysis done so far was crap. Almost all of the analysis so far seems very spot on and is confirmed by multiple players. Therefore, for this lynch I propose we lynch nemesis since he is scum and tomorrow we can check the # of mafia to see if we are right. If there is only 1 SK, which I propose is RebirthOfLegend, then there is no harm in letting him live 1 more day since we are likely to get more clues after the next night and we can doubley confirm him and confirm that it is indeed a SK via # of kills. Also the clues pointing towards RoL aren't as decisive as the ones pointing to nemesis. The reason to vote RoL tonight would be to lower the # of SK to 0. If we want, a vig can hit RoL, but I think we should save the Vig for later so we can doubly check to make sure he is actually the SK. I don't think RoL would be SK, just for the reason that it is EXTREMELY counter-intuitive. You bring attention to yourself, whether through getting hit, or making yourself a potential lynch. I don't see why RoL would decide to off-handedly run for mayor as SK. Again, making an analysis to go with your clues helps your argument, and let's you see if this person really is non-town. Even small FoS things like inactivity and discussing something that won't go anywhere become fairly damning in the presence of clues. I'll try to give Nemesis a shot, but RoL wasn't talking out of his ass when he said 2-3 players shouldn't be doing everything. Though I think he said it just to say something. The Qatol clue was meant to be found immediately. The first clues should hint at parts of profiles, but be fairly general. If you find a lot of clues on the same person, but they are all on different parts of his profile, it gives a greater chance that one of them is an actual clue. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
# of Posts: 19 Not inactive, but definitely not one of the most active Analysis On January 23 2011 11:40 Nemesis wrote: No, I am not doing this only to start discussion. I want to encourage activity and make sure that no one lurks in this game. Good sentiments but not much substance. On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote: Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon? Good sentiments but not much substance. On January 24 2011 13:12 Nemesis wrote: Hmm so far I don't really like any of the candidates. RoL didn't bring much of a platform. DrH, uggh how many times has he lead us astray us town leader? Kavdragon, I don't really like the things he is advocating for. Anyone else want to run for mayor? Wants another candidate, apparently. Perhaps I can detach him from RoL? On January 24 2011 13:28 Nemesis wrote: I am not talking about you as a mayor, I mean as a town leader in general. I mean take a look at Salem mafia. I think that you are still a better candidate than kavdragon though, and if no one else steps up I will vote for you. And Almost 1500 post, not sure if I can do any long post for my 1500th post as we have only gotten started, but don't expect me to post for a while. Bad blood with Dr. H but may put his vote on. On January 24 2011 13:34 Nemesis wrote: Ok, this is my last post for a while, the thing that bothers me about your campaign is you hold the mayor as an extremely important role that making the mayor survive is more important than killing scum. It would be well worth it if you can trade the mayor for 1 scum, it would be even better if you can trade for 2 but that's highly unlikely. Also, making greens volunteer to be bodyguard is such an ANTI-TOWN PLAN. It would let mafia be able to narrow down who is blue from those who did not volunteer. Well I'm off for tonight. Agree with green volunteering (though you would just need two, but it would be better to get one vet claim instead) but I disagree with the mayor part. I'm not sure I need to reiterate my reasons why. On January 25 2011 08:26 Nemesis wrote: We stilil have plenty of time to change votes. Woot, looks like RoL is now seriously running RoL for mayor everyone! And I seriously don't want to have kavdragon for mayor. He is pushing for a scummy plan right from the beginning with the bodyguard volunteering. It has already been covered by multiple people why that is a bad idea. Even if only 4 people volunteered, that still narrows down the list of blues. And there is still the same chance of picking mafia as before(mafia can just volunteer). There is no advantage to town whatsover to volunteering bodyguard. I suppose now that Dr. H went out, RoL is the next best choice. Not convinced it connects the two of them if we are looking at Nemesis' last posts. On January 25 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote: It's day 1, and I would rather not talk about clues. Clues are rather vague until we get the hang of it. It is just derailing the thread here. We should talk about the mayoral elections and what they plan to do? That is who are you going to lynch/plans whatever. and RoL since you are back, how are you planning on choosing your bodyguard, and who are you going to lynch first day? Understandable, shows us why he doesnt want Kav, who is lynching based on clues and feels they are very vague atm. Doesn't give an alternate plan though. On January 25 2011 13:09 Nemesis wrote: I'm sorry but this just sounds bad(once again). You are basically putting everything into the hands of the mayor. It is not likely that mafia will find masons during the first day. The disadvantages far outweights the advantages of this plan. Not a bad idea, I'd call it more neutral. Mason should be recruiting likely blues and confirming himself to them, and when he has found one, he should recruit a speaker, and the mayor would usually be a good choice considering he was voted that position by town, so he is already a trustworthy source. In fact, I'm not sure if we should trust other claims other then from the mayor, because it is too simple to falseclaim. Nemesis again doesn't give a better alternate, which he should. On January 25 2011 13:24 Nemesis wrote: Why Amber[Light]? kitaman, I would rather not depend on clues over post analysis. And fine, if you think the clue leads to him, and want him lynched for the first day. Don't you already have kavdragon's support? Why discuss it further if kav has already decided to lynch him? Again with anti-clue debate, bothers me that he isn't generating other discussion himself. >_> and I did. The thing to note is he did not comment on what I had said, but I suppose he thought he would be just "chiming in" on how bad my RNG plan was. Ugh. Gotta support your reasons mate. On January 26 2011 20:57 Nemesis wrote: And how will that help mafia as well? Mafia can already guess the number of SK's from the # of KP per night. Truth. On January 26 2011 21:02 Nemesis wrote: Kav, I wouldn't judge bum yet as scum. The way he is appearing to me is more of an impulsive townie as in he doesn't think before he post, and then realizes that what he was suggesting was bad. Still I would like to see his response. Aw, he will always be town in my heart. Doesn't mean he is though, red like to cut the strings to other people fairly quickly if they see an outcome ahead of time. If I got lynched, and then the next day we find mafia umbers are the same, nemesis can say itoldyaso. On January 27 2011 14:46 Nemesis wrote: sigh, do I even have to point out why this analysis is crap? Fine, I guess I will. First of all, the clues are divided into two parts: the two seperate deaths. That means that the clues in the first night points to two different people. Now if you look at the statements that he took from the clues, those are spread out all over the place in the day post. They can be found in both deaths. So unless you are saying that both clues point to me, then that part of your clue analysis is crap. Second of all, this one is just a bit of speculation on how clues work, but the italicized parts and the bold parts feel a bit like red herring. If you look at Night 0's clue, none of the actual clues are found within the italicized parts. Third of all, that kind of feels forced. Well I don't necessarily blame you since you probably don't really understand what my quote is from, and what a reality marble is. A reality marble is magic that forces the reality in your mind to come to life in the real world. So using real as a clue to point to me is rather farfetched. And I just had to facepalm when you bolded really. That just kind of seems too forced. To people doing clue analysis, I would suggest to take a look at Night 0's clues. Since there are a lot of crap analysis going on right now. The clues from night 0 are the "duct tape" which was straight from Qatol's quote. The clues are pretty straightforward. Don't try and look for things which might be related to something in people's profile. For example, someone has a picture of a character from a movie. Then there was something in the clue that could be related to that movie but to a different character in the movie. Mods won't go that far to make the clues as vague as possible. Remember that the clue is directly related to the Profile, not second-hand relation. I don't really have time to delve hardcore into this day's clue right now, but let me just give you what I could find in a short amount of time. From Gmarshal's profile As for the second kill, all I could find so far was this: From Kitaman's Profile: "Keeper Yes, my lord; But yet I cannot help you." "Surveyor 'If,' quoth he, 'I for this had been committed, As, to the Tower, I thought, I would have play'd The part my father meant to act upon The usurper Richard; who, being at Salisbury, Made suit to come in's presence; which if granted, As he made semblance of his duty, would Have put his knife to him.'" Now obviously I haven't read all of kitaman's profile so I'm not really sure if I'm taking those out of context. I'll read it when I have the time, but if someone who knows the story there can help me if anything could be related to the clues, I would appreciate it. And of course lynching based on clues alone would be stupid unless the clues are pretty damning, so I will hold out on my vote for now. Defends himself. Even though it points to two different parts, it still makes it more likely then if there was one clue. One could be misleading, while the other true. It would be better to find a clue in both parts though. Mentions Qatols clue, which RoL did as well. Qatol's clue was meant to be found, while the clues the first few days are purposefully vague and inconclusive. That's why I agree with him that clues not to be a selling point at first. Finally some clue analysis, but only when he is under pressure. Overall, we see his history hasn't done Nemesis any favors. Clues I am just going to use what Lunar has found without making it my own. We need more people to contribute to this. On January 27 2011 11:34 LunarDestiny wrote: Some nights I thirst for real blood For real knives For real cries And then the flash of steel from real guns In real life Really fills my mind You can’t hide Nemesis Archer's Reality Marble: Reality Marble "I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'." On January 27 2011 11:41 LunarDestiny wrote: Most clues of Nemesis Some nights I thirst for real blood And then the flash of steel from real guns "I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'." And we should attempt to fit in things from the first day as well. Where am I? What’s happening? The last thing I remember... our glasses raised, filled with dark red wine, the color of blood... a toast, a sip... Fairly weak, as we assume Nemsis' pic is a vampire, and the bloded black words don't help the "DarkFlameNightHunter" either. Our captain, Foolishness stowed away his gun, fell to his knees and clutched the nurse’s head. I listened as in between sobs he choked out what happened “The man... the man was following the nurse. I... You must avenge her death. He is not alone... I will be their next target. They will come after me next and… Mi Dio!” I picked up the dropped switchblade, pressed it to the captains throat, and sawed. "What do you do when there is an evil you cannot defeat by just means? Do you stain your hands with evil to destroy evil, or do you remain steadfastly just and righteous even if it means surrendering to evil?In my case, I commit evil to destroy the greater evil!" Lelouch Lamperouge The nearest thing, though the post could mean other things. For this, the narrator must be good and he had to believe the captain killed Korynne. You could argue that the captain is good and the narrator was evil all along. But why would it start out that the narrator is talking about the voyage as cursed? Perhaps he knew it would be cursed because of what he would have to do. Or it's what he figured out. Still weak I believe. Summary ANALYSIS Lurking player who poses a lot of questions and obviously has an opinion about things but doesn't go into much detail about why he has them. INFORMATION Did not like the candidates. Eventually picked RoL over Kav. I do not believe Nemesis and RoL are both red, but it is very possible. No other info on him. CLUES First day clues I found feel very weak, and I would dismiss them initially. Second day clues LD found are much stronger, and can give the first clues more solid ground to base on. I believe Nemesis is an SK. It would still make sense if he was mafia. | ||
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profiling>analysis>clues in terms of where I am FoSing RoL. Not in general what is stronger. but for RoL in this situation. The profile is for my belief that mafia will take a stab at running for mayor everytime. This isn't based on the metagame or anything, its strictly that this set-up makes this obvious. The analysis comes next for the reason RoL is apathetic. As if he needs to run. I think if he was town with the same mediocre drive, we would not have run. (dont get me wrong. we needed candidates but we are assuming candidates would provide above average activity). Clues are last. I think they are much weaker then what has been found on other people. But these clues are right. becuase RoL is red. Ive looked for other connections and this is all I found. The clues arent confirming the profile, the profile iconfirms the clues. I have no comment on RoLs comparison of BB and myself. BB sees it as analysis>clues>profile, if i am not mistaken. I think we all know BB is prone to give people a chance nem is a much weaker, cles could be off, and he jst may be among the hordes of lurking townies. Maybe we have a lot blues. I think its likely given how mafia/sk favored this setup is. | ||
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Mr. Zergling had some pretty strong clues though. I'm expecting a lot of people to start coming forward with the "Oh yeah RoL scum for sure" when we are bound to find out. By the way nemesis, my analysis of you was specifically saying you were SK and not mafia. I dont hope too hard with clues, and my analysis may be off, as you cant pin SK early without more information. but i am fairly certain nemesis is not mafia. HE IS AN SK or town. | ||
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On January 29 2011 15:35 Barundar wrote: Call me sceptic, but considering RoL would most likely be the godfather if mafia, I find it highly unlikly that we hit red when the votes where so close. It's very likely we just lost a bunch of townies. Please hit mafia SK? Can you phrase that first part again? I think you are saying RoL is the only likely mafia? Which I agree with, but you just worded it funny. But I'm not sure if it was a slip or not... | ||
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Oh and can someone save a vig for night 3 please small request | ||
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On January 30 2011 05:19 Kavdragon wrote: No, mods said that SK will NOT get clues pointing to them every night. It would be really unfair if they did... what really? So how does that work? sometimes it just says someone dies? will it look like clues? red herrings? | ||
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we dont need every vigi shooting the first night they can we might need it later, when more information and analysis is available. | ||
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On January 30 2011 06:29 Kavdragon wrote: From what i read, the clues work like this: If three people die, there will be three clues. (with the SK being a possible exception to that rule). The clues will NOT NECESSARILY be in the description of the person who died. This means that all three could be in the last person's death, or they could be spread out, or wherever. If an SK kills someone, I'm assuming that the clue will just not always be there. So for instance, the SK kills one person, the mafia kill two. There will be two clues in the day post, but they could be anywhere in the post. The important part is to remember that the clues could appear anywhere in the post, including right next to each other. Man how do I miss this stuff, I thought I read this thread completely, Ill keep this in mind. | ||
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I can't post anything good at the moment without going over everything, but I will contribute a good 24 hours before lynch so stay tuned. | ||
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On January 31 2011 08:59 LSB wrote: Sure. If you believe me. It's all in the day 3 post LSB is the SK and we have to all lynch him or town never wins. THE CLUES MEAN NOTHING. I really can't think properly. Maybe I should get a beer and just type whatever comes into my head in one post? And then I can say I'm contributing today. It's between Nemesis/Beneather/Jackal? Healthy competition. I think you need clues from more then 1 day to really get me on board with it. The all function being gone is killing my morale to really analyze and review. With RoL, it was just ctrl-f, copy-paste and type thoughts and I was formulating opinions and thoughts in about 15 minutes. Well, the next best way is to search their name in content and mouseclick-3 the numbers and read/quote from there. I guess I could give them all a quick run and ignore clues until I develop opinions. Or I can just assume Kav is town and vote whatever he does lol Dont ask me why Im spoilering all this, because it's more then likely gonna make you read this useless stuff when you might skip over plain texted paragraphs. I'll be posting more soon. | ||
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Beneather and Jackal: Together! Really depends on how hard you base on clues and analysis. Without those, Jackal is really fudged since Beneather is already a BG, and finding out he isn't mafia will make us take a step back and have our census vulnerability take 3 steps forward. Jackal is the obvious choice. If we take that aspect away, they look really similar. Im just going with jackal, because we need to kill scum now, and we need to have this mayor dude keep dishing out the censi. Nemesis better deliver though and not just think he can attack people already under the scope to save himself. | ||
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On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote: Pretty confident he's scum, clues fit well and he had motive to kill d3. Its possible that d3 fingered a large portion of the mafia team, which would be the reason they killed him off. Theres not a whole lot of other reasons for it. Looking back at d3's list of suspects: Nemesis Darmousseh Beneather kitaman27 Eti307 LunarDestiny GMarshal Of these I think Nemesis and Beneather are certain mafia. Lunar is high up on the list as well, he completely ingored beneather as a possibility for the dog meat clue and tunnelled me instead. Probably trying to divert attention from beneather. Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him. My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum. :X Thats pretty ballsy. I think if both BGs were scum and mayor was not... wouldnt he be dead already? Well perhaps it might be better to wait for one to die... Still using a vig on the chance TWO people might be scum is a little risky. Better off lynching the more incriminated one, and seeing what he flips. | ||
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On February 01 2011 03:51 deconduo wrote: I am not going to let you bait me into an argument over WIFOM as I'm sure you would like to divert attention from important matters once again. I will however clarify my logic: -I feel that the clues point quite clearly towards beneather being the scum that killed d3. It is also much more likely that it was a mafia kill rather than an SK kill. -As d3 had already pointed out suspicions towards beneather, amongst others, this would be a good motive for the kill. OBVIOUSLY only the killer (or his team) knows the exact reasoning behind making a kill, however it does no harm to speculate especially on an unexpected kill. -I know that all the times I've been mafia, I've always tried to kill people who get too close to working out who we are. You can see I was thinking about this early when I looked over at who had been killed so far. This was before I suspected Beneather at all. Finally, lets take a look at the people who lynched RoL and saved Nemesis on day 2: bumatlarge LunarDestiny Nemesis darmousseh Beneather kitaman27 Eti307 kavdragon (switched) Notice any similarities? Oh wow didn't notice that before. Are sure D3 wasn't just basing off his suspects off that list anyway minus Kav and myself? (as we seem to have been the only ones actually really going into RoL's analysis in detail) I'll give this a chance. You're suggesting nemesis for the lynch then? | ||
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On February 02 2011 04:43 Kavdragon wrote: Right, enough about the BG's. I think that we should give our blues some direction. This idea is coming from BC's thread on town play. Blues, feel free to take or leave our advice. The discussion is as much for you Blues as it is for Vanilla townies. If people are going to suggest things, be specific. Call people out by name, don't generalize. It's really easy for scum to hid in the crowd of people saying "we should dt check inactives". It's much harder for them to post specific requests for DT/Medic/Vig hits, and when they do, it gives us WAY more information about mafia than general "good" advice. I'll start: DT's: Beneather's alignment will be shown by who dies first, me or him. Do not waste time on him. Papapanda comes off as very scummy to me, but this could simply be because he's new. I'd highly recommend him for a DT check. (Constantly apologizing for himself, very tentative about his ideas/opinions. Very typical of newer scum players.) Medics: Mafia made a play for GMarshal after I called for Medics to protect LunarDestiny. You caught this before, so keep up the work with the wifom. LunarDestiny is still a good heal target. GMarshal is also a good target, in case the mafia make a play for eliminating the census again. Vig: My request for a hit on Zerroth still stands. If a DT hit D3, thank you, sorry that he turned out town. Regardless of whether a DT hit him or not, the inactives felt pressure and posted more. I see no reason to stop the pressure. Vet's: Speak up, be active. You have the privilege of being able to speak out without worrying for your life. This will allow other blues to come out a contribute as the mafia will be avoiding Vets, and at the very least sets up some good wifom shields. Don't forget mason as well. He should be blue hunting. DT will probably need to claim and give some results tomorrow. BGs are always good, and try your best to predict a hit (someone who becomes very vocal at a certain point, someone who catches your eye). Unless a vig feels very vulnerable, I think he should save hits from people like zerroth or D3 and wait for a situation where we KNOW someone is red. But of course, pop it if you are in danger. If jackal is a vet I am worried for what the rest of our vets are like. I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm... When you judge someone, spread it into three parts, and keep them separate. Behavior comes first, then the information available and then clues. Don't disregard them, you just need to develop an eye for them, which I obviously haven't yet -_- If there is no information available about that person, then you can extend the analysis into 2/3 of your opinion. That sheep pic is cruel, but helpful, as it is likely that nemesis is town and not SK. Bum is 0 for 2! | ||
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On January 30 2011 11:24 Coagulation wrote: the only clue i could find http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Jackal58 Steeler picture in profile On January 30 2011 12:06 Coagulation wrote: Steel On January 30 2011 14:01 Coagulation wrote: A vote for jackal is a Vote for TOWN! On January 30 2011 13:09 Coagulation wrote: blocked you say? Kinda like they do in football? STEELers Can we ban Coag from clue analysis? We posts all this then right before the lynch he tells everyone whos voting for jackal that they are mafia. This is a good vig hit, because lynchng him would lead to mindless conversations and hard to interpret WIFOM about coag's play. Looking back, zerroth pointed at the clues on beneather first, so if both he and beneather are red, he has to be bussing. Or he is town. I'd like for you to look again at who you are suggesting to get vig hit, kav. Or at least explain it to we lesser mortals. Im going to look into siniquity, as I have my suspicions, but as for now, please do not make a repeat of yesterday's lynch. Looking at everyone's posts, it's just awful for town to either let mafia create a scenario like that where people start posting clues and let arguements build up over small suggestions. What's worse, is that situation was likely to have been town induced. Do not make yourself a coag. | ||
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On February 02 2011 05:17 Kavdragon wrote: Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda? Well, you can probably explain it the best. I mean Beneather and Jackal. I see little difference in their posting, and beneather is valuable by his existence and jackal has already made an excuse of why he is still here and will be here, or proved that he is not doing his job. Maybe you've already closely reviewed them both, or you are going on what everyone has said. Why Beneather over Jackal? I know you mentioned that it was unnerving that no one defended jackal, but I doubt that is the only reason. | ||
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On February 02 2011 05:39 Jackal58 wrote: I'll accept full responsibility for poor veteran play on my part. Yes I'm new. Yes this is the first time I've had a role other than vanilla townie. Do I see where I've made errors? Yes. Will it improve my play in future games? Of course. Can I change anything I've done up to this point? No. And I have yet to have anybody tell me how a veteran should play. Nor have I seen anything special in the other games I've been in to identify a player as vet. They've all been lynched in the games I've been in. None claimed flat out to be a vet prior to being lynched. Although I do believe either RoL or LSB claimed to be blue without being specific. And without any result. They were still lynched. Town went on to lose. So I claim what I am. I have no prior precedent to look at except lynched Vets. That doesn't help town. So I claim what I am. I don't know if my claim prevented my lynch. But I'm still an extra townie with an extra night life. Alright alright, veteran isn't tough, but I can see where you are coming from. Mafia wins by outnumbering town right? So it controls lynches and hits freely. Town does not lynch scum, then there is a set number of days until mafia wins. Let's forget about SK, and take this game as an example. Mafia have 2kp. 1. 2. 3. GMarshal 4. kitaman27 5. ilovejonn 6. bumatlarge 7. 8. papapanda 9. deconduo - Replaced Pandain 10. Kenpachi 11. Coagulation 12. Kavdragon 13. 14. Jackal58 15. 16. zerroth 17. Mr. Wiggles 18. SiNiquity 19. BrownBear 20. Eti307 21. 22. LunarDestiny 23. Impervious 24. Barundar - Replaced Nfi 25. 26. 27. Divinek 28. CubEdIn 29. darmousseh 30. Beneather 31. 31 players, 9 dead, 5 mafia left. That gives us 17 townies left. Let's say 2 people die tomorrow as well so we are at 15. Now if 2 people die every night and we lynch a townie everyday, we have until Day 7 before we lose. You can imagine with the SK as well this day will come sooner. Now we could lynch flawlessly and SK can hit some mafia, but so far that isn't happening for us. We need townies to buy us time. Medics extend this LYLO (lynch or lose) when they successfully protect someone. This job is pretty tough, because they have to predict who will get hit while staying alive themselves, and still participate in the game so as not to draw suspicion. Veterans have a much easier time. They can be as vocal as possible AND SHOULD BE. They try to get hit. when you are hit, you claim it viola we have a townie. Now there are ways of fakeclaiming this, but there are also ways of checking it, like DTs. You getting hit buys us time and keeps you alive to give your town opinion. In your case, I would have said I was blue, which is the truth. This helps you stay alive, and makes mafia want to hit you if they fear a any of the other roles, and you "do your job". Pretty staright-forward. I'm willing to give jackal a chance, because at worst he is an inexperienced SK, but most likely he actually is a veteran, and it makes sense after looking through his posts that he is a newer blue player. If I see a reference to Big Ben in the day post, he's screwed, and Im going to murder LSB if jackal is town. | ||
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I am a detective Night 1: kitaman27 is Medic Night 2: Beneather is Vanilla Town Night 3: LunarDestiny is [black]Serial Killer[/black] | ||
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On February 02 2011 12:16 Divinek wrote: kita is dead so.... also this seems to make sense look at the last clue You'd better watch out! I immediately headed back to the camp in order to find help. I grabbed the first person I saw, Deconduo and asked him to help me remove ilovejohn’s body. Deconduo didn’t help me. As soon as he realized that I wanted him to go inside, he fled. He didn’t get two steps before I killed him. Serves him right. There may be dogs about ---------------------------------------------- and then from lunars profile finally something solid to go on. You would be quick to jump on that. You scummy fuck, start giving me posts to work with. | ||
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On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote: LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills. (also what does the rest of the town think of this?) Need to hear from Lunar first. And we need to successfully scumhunt. I've got plans. Also, let me point out that beneather isn't 100% it is possible and likely he could be GF. Kav did announce who his BGs were, and mafia probably had time to determine GF on night 1, and a BG is a good candidate. Don't let this stop you from analyzing him but he's got a lot defense right now. He needs to be here giving his opinions and confirming this. And hopefully to further the validity of my claim, every hit has been claimed. There is no way as mafia I'd be able to guess Lunar as SK without hitting him, unless Siniquity and GM were mafia with me. Im willing to bet they are town as well. I'll get to who I am placing my suspicions on in a moment. | ||
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On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote: are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified Mhmm, well he's got nothing to lose, he can do as we say for one night, as mafia is obviously winning at this point. We can't control him, but he's good for at least one night to be pro-town. I'm looking into a few people. These are people I find town as of now. It is also likely that a GF will be in the top three if my suspicions fail. 3. GMarshal 18. SiNiquity 30. Beneather 12. Kavdragon 14. Jackal58 I need analyses of everyone else done among this crew. 8. papapanda 10. Kenpachi 11. Coagulation 14. Jackal58 17. Mr. Wiggles 19. BrownBear 16. zerroth 20. Eti307 23. Impervious 24. Barundar 27. Divinek 28. CubEdIn 29. darmousseh They need to start contributing or provide proof that they have been this game. Once they do that, they can help analyze, and we can really get deeper into this game. I'd really love to know how many Blues we have to work with, maybe it might be time to diverge from using the census on Mafia numbers, Kav. That's one topic to discuss, but right now let's deal with the SK first. | ||
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On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote: What the hell is this shit? Analyze the meaning of this dt claim and ask yourself would a town aligned player do this claim. If Bumatlarge is telling the truth: -The final push for this dt claim is detecting that I am SK. But why would a town want to expose the SK. Mafia wouldn't choose to hit this presumed SK and target other town. -If Bumatlarge just want to lynch me, he could just have said that Lunar is SK or Mafia (don't know why he chose the former unless he is mafia and don't want lynching me to affect the presumed mafia count=5). Then the other two pieces of information is useless. What good would exposing the medic do? Nothing except for sparing him as lynch. As of now, claiming that Beneather is vanilla town is pointless since we are not lynching because of his bodyguard status. If you look at another view point that Bumatlarge is mafia and lying: He named me as SK to lynch me. Didn't just say I am mafia because it will bring the presumed mafia count down to 4 and be counter claimed by census. After Deconduo's death, only 1 of the 2 dog profile left is Beneather. Since dog meat is very likely to be a clue. He is trying to protect Beneather. The reason for Kitaman is medic is rolefishing. What he want Kitaman to do? Claim medic? And also the clue pointing at me. Those clues are even less convincing than the clues we found. I ask people to read his dt claim carefully and think of the motive for his claim (is it pro-town or anti-town). | ||
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On February 02 2011 13:31 LunarDestiny wrote: Bumtlarge, directly reply to that post of mine if you are truly town. We have time buddy, 48 hours to figure out what you are going to do and 48 hours for me to answer all the questions you have. | ||
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Alright. Obviously pissed. Analyze the meaning of this dt claim and ask yourself would a town aligned player do this claim. If Bumatlarge is telling the truth: -The final push for this dt claim is detecting that I am SK. But why would a town want to expose the SK. Mafia wouldn't choose to hit this presumed SK and target other town. -If Bumatlarge just want to lynch me, he could just have said that Lunar is SK or Mafia (don't know why he chose the former unless he is mafia and don't want lynching me to affect the presumed mafia count=5). Then the other two pieces of information is useless. What good would exposing the medic do? Nothing except for sparing him as lynch. As of now, claiming that Beneather is vanilla town is pointless since we are not lynching because of his bodyguard status. We have yet to reduce KP. SK has not hit a single mafia according to Kav. Keeping SK is detrimental to town, and we can assume there is only one left. Kita is dead, and Beneather is a big suspect, I'd prefer to clear his name at the same time as exposing the SK. I don't believe mafia would hit him, as he would be a nice shield from a lynch or a vig. If you look at another view point that Bumatlarge is mafia and lying: He named me as SK to lynch me. Didn't just say I am mafia because it will bring the presumed mafia count down to 4 and be counter claimed by census. I am a detective, and you are not mafia, you are an SK. I'm not into the whole ambiguous statement gig. And you seem to be confusing your words? I should claim you as mafia as town so that census can tell me that you were not? You'll have to rephrase this. After Deconduo's death, only 1 of the 2 dog profile left is Beneather. Since dog meat is very likely to be a clue. He is trying to protect Beneather. Because he came back as Town BG. Unless he's GF, this is a red herring. It is possible for him to be a GF. The reason for Kitaman is medic is rolefishing. What he want Kitaman to do? Claim medic? :/ holes upon holes dude. And also the clue pointing at me. Those clues are even less convincing than the clues we found. I didn't point out that clue, Divine did, take this up with him. Looks possible though. I ask people to read his dt claim carefully and think of the motive for his claim (is it pro-town or anti-town). Reducing KP, or keeping this to myself. Sorry GM, lunar told me to. | ||
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To help you out Kav, I honestly thought I would check lunar and receive Mason back. I was so certain he had gotten PM rights with you, hence why you said he was on par with BG in worth of being protected. This is what I got. It's not bad for SK to act pro-town. But from what Lunar has posted after my find, he has been completely uncooperative and has yet to refute it in the slightest. We aren't lynching LD to confirm me, we are lynching him to get rid of non-town KP. If you believe LD, then I can not be town. No sitting on the fence here, you have appeared town this whole game, but I can't sit here and let you entertain something that is wrong. | ||
bumatlarge
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On February 02 2011 15:45 LunarDestiny wrote: Let me say this. I believe bumatlarge is mafia. To those who believe that I am SK and bumatlarge is dt. How about we do this: Don't lynch me or bumatlarge. If bumatlarge dies at night, lynch me. -If bumatlarge is dt, then mafia would want to kill him soon. If he dies at night, then bumatlarge is likely telling the truth. If that is the case, I don't care what town do with me. On the other hand, if bumatlarge is lying and is mafia. He wouldn't be killed (I hope vig or the SK don't shoot him). So lynching me would not help town. As much as I'd like to agree to that, what happens if I do not die? I am certain mafia? This is the most basic form of WIFOM in the game of mafia. It's often used as an example to illustrate it. You haven't even mentioned getting hit, so unless I am springing this from nowhere, that is not how I know you are SK. You are trying to beat around the bush because you are trying to delay this as long as possible. You have now proven you are incapable of following any town instructions. I will not be switching my vote off of you for someone I am not sure about. Excuse me if I am not letting your bad arguments have garner any substance. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
WHY DO YOU THINK I WENT BONKERS BEFORE KAV WAS VOTED IN. I can't even tell if that is something you came up with as a mafia question or whether that statement is completely genuine. It blows my mind that we are in the same game. Sorry dude. It blows my mind. It's bed time for bonzo here. I like your clues on BB Lunar! Good find! Yay go team! | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 02 2011 17:33 Barundar wrote: Shouldn't Beneather have returned Townie Bodyguard as allignment? It seems very convenient that you check kitaman who died tonight, and Beneather who is suspected scum. In any case either Lunar or bum is lying, so we got atleast 1 guranteed lynch. Can we afford to mislynch today? Yeah its actually Townie Bodyguard in blue. LYLO is a few days away, I think day 6 if its 3 hits a night and we don't lynch a mafia. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On January 24 2011 04:37 CubEdIn wrote: Here's the thing though: So if mayor WILL pick scum bodyguards, they just won't be much of a body-guard. Sure it would reveal who they are if mayor turns up dead with no bodyguards dying pre-flop, but then again, it also gives a scum mayor great opportunities to: a) pick townie bodyguards and then 2-3 days later start whining that they're not dying, therefore they must be scum b) pick one townie, one scum, have their mafia buddies kill the townie and then ask for a medic to protect the other bodyguard ...etc. So, the only awesome scenario is when mayor picks BOTH bodyguards scum. And the chances of that are somewhat non-existent, since if we knew who scum were, then we might as well lynch them, not place them as bodyguards for trolling purposes. Admittedly, I do not have much experience playing in Bodyguard games with this rule, so I might be missing out on some alternatives. Also, a note for the census ability: I believe the order they should get information is: 1. Number of Mafia 2. Number of SKs 3. Number of Godfathers Being the mayor, this information can/should be posted in the thread after each night, as I believe it is useful information for everyone, correct? I can't really tell if number of godfathers is more/less important than number of mafia/sk. I am guessing less, since it's probably just 1/2 godfathers anyway. 4. Number of blues After finding out the number of blues, only share with the PM circle if you have been recruited, as it will help keeping track of the blues and the possibly-fake blues. I don't see why the entire town would need to know this, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. On January 24 2011 04:47 CubEdIn wrote: P.S.: Since it's the very start of the game, we cannot be sure of the alignment of anyone. So, on the bodyguard selection issue, I would have to say that RnG-ing with the option of Veto would be my choice if I ran for mayor. It would work like this, mayor randomly chooses two people (out of everyone, or specially selected groups, like say... everyone else who ran for mayor). Post their name in the thread. If said people do not wish to be BG, they can veto. This will obviously put tremendous pressure on everyone who uses veto, but the reasons can be various: a) You're a townie but too scared to be a target b) You're a blue but your role is too important to risk being targeted early c) You're a mafia and if you get picked the mayor is imba! I know it sound scummy at first, but it can also gives town useful information. Here is why: a) A clever townie can say veto and then take a hit from Mafia because they think he is blue b) A blue player can hide in BG because mafia thinks he is green c) A mafia who has accepted being BG can easily be uncovered if he is role-checked (unless he is GF but in that case mayor will live for a long time anyway) I'm just putting it out there, if you think this is too helpful for scum, then please try to come up with another solution that is not completely random and has a high chance of picking scum/non-blues as BG on day one. On January 24 2011 05:15 CubEdIn wrote: I think that there are a few flaws with this: - the best option for a townie mayor would be to have 2 mafia BGs (or at least one), but this setup will probably lead to him having 0 mafia BGs - the town will see who doesn't volunteer, but so will the mafia, so from the left-overs, they can subtract themselves and have a pool of players, a good deal of which are probably blue Either way, it's not a bad idea. I'm sure that no matter what we choose it will still have flaws in it. It'll be a matter of luck in the end imo. On January 24 2011 08:53 CubEdIn wrote: Just adding one thing: A lot of things may be worth sacrificing to kill a red, but the census ability is probably on the bottom of that list. If the picks go wrong and mayor is dealt with during the first night, we will have absolutely 0 information from census. So the best scenario would be hope that one of the picks is a blue-vet. That way, it will take at least 3KPs to get to the mayor (assuming that the other BG is red). And it's not really worth saying what we should risk sacrificing for a scum until we figure out a way to pick BGs. Because if we're gonna pick volunteers, I'm pretty sure neither will be a scum. On January 24 2011 09:16 CubEdIn wrote: I thought about that myself, but the main idea behind why vets are good is because mafia don't know that it takes two hits to kill them. If mafia doesn't know what the BGs are, then they will probably have to stack hits on them anyway, assuming that they will be protected by a medic as well. If they would know, then it's only a matter of distributing KPs. Of course, medics will be able to protect, but do you really want the medics protecting just two targets for the game and have the rest of the town picked off? Best case scenario? The SK and the GF both as bodyguards (with a blue DT mayor or something). On January 24 2011 09:18 CubEdIn wrote: Oh and as for the chances of getting a SK as bodyguard, are really low. I don't see how town could possibly try and get SK or reds as BGs, without RnG-ing. Unless we try something like "we're picking volunteers" and then the mayor picks two random people out of those who did not volunteer. Which would have a higher chance of getting red/sk, but would make the rest of the town go WTF /hate. If I manage to come up with a good enough plan to do that I'll run for mayor myself lol. On January 25 2011 07:10 CubEdIn wrote: I'm gonna vote for Kav, as a placeholder mostly, because I wanna sleep now and I'm not sure if I'll be back in time. But I would like to hear more about the picking of Bodyguards, because it can possibly make or break this game. From everyone, not just mayor candidates. It would be nice to cook up a plan and come up with reds as BGs, or at least a higher chance than RnG-ing. Cube didn't hold anything back here. He was very elaborate when talking about BGs. Which is good, but he points out that he is perfectly aware that without census, we are blind. He should have put less focus on who the BGs were going to be and mention more about the mayor/census. On January 25 2011 07:21 CubEdIn wrote: P.S.: The reason I'm not going for RoL is that, if he's mafia, the town is as good as dead. Kav may be more open to everyone's suggestions (including RoL), but I'm not sure what RoL would do. Be it scum or not. I won't deny that he's very experienced, but that would make the game incredibly difficult if he's red. Also, Kav someone semi-claimed of having a cool blue role. I don't know if that was a joke or not, but I'm gonna put a bit of trust into him. After all, if he does turn up scum-ish, we could always lynch him right? Again, playing off the mayor role as a fleeting whim. Compare this to his in-depth analysis on Bodyguard picking. It just depends if he honestly thought BG picking was more important then the mayor (which a lot of people were doing...) or he was egging the conversation in that directon. Do I think Cube/Kav are mafia? Hardly. Do I think Cube could have been tunneling the thought process? Yes. On January 26 2011 04:49 CubEdIn wrote: Okay I'm back. So, it seems like Kav is gonna be our mayor. We're running out of time, so please state how BGs will be picked so we can come in with ideas while we still can. And as for census, sure, you do what you want, or what town wants, it doesn't really matter. But it makes most sense to go: - total mafia -> tell town - total SK -> tell town - total blues -> don't tell town (town doesn't need to know, unless you risk dying or something, but Mafia might benefit a lot from this piece of information) - then count doctors/dts/vigs/etc. (just in case someone checks GF, we may be able to flush him out if the blue role he fakes gets too many claims) - total GF is also ok, but let's see how many mafia there are. I doubt there will be too many GFs anyway I'd say... if anyone has a DIFFERENT idea, then feel free to share. My belief is that picking the BGs will have a much greater impact on the game. Bolded part, maybe people disagree with me, but I don't think picking BGs will have a greater impact then the census. Speaking of census, Cube mentions counting individual blues and GF. I remember thinking that as well, but I thought node said we could only census Mafia, SKs, Town and Blues. Not sure if it was clarfied, but from the OP it seems that way. On January 26 2011 04:59 CubEdIn wrote: Since there's no way I'll be mayor, here is a kind of system I thought of to bring as many scum/sk into the bodyguards picks. It's not perfect, but I believe it has a good chance (20-30%ish) of hitting a red in the BGs: Step 1: RnG 8 people (out of everyone BUT mayor candidates and people who already volunteered as BG), ask them to confirm/veto if they wanna be BG Step 2: Tally up the number of vetos, and lurkers, and mayor candidates (not relevant in this case, since it's just 1-2 other ppl). Step 3: a) If the number of vetos is high (4 or more), pick 2 BGs from the people who veto-ed. Sure, some might be blues, but not all of them, so there's a high chance a Mafia/SK didn't want BG. If it's a scared townie, then you're not losing much anyway. b) If the number of vetos is low (<=3), then pick one BG from that and 1 from lurkers. This is the suckiest scenario, but it still has a decent shot of picking a Maifa out of luck. Technically, 8 ppl is about 1/3 of the players if you exclude candidates and ppl who asked for BG role, so there should be roughly 2 mafia in there. At least one. c) If the number of vetos is 0 (everyone agrees), pick 2 people out of the 8, as mafias would try to blend in, and blues that agreed would be ok (maybe vets or so). __________________________________________________________________________ Of course, this will not work if everyone knows the selection criteria, and it's not even polished. I didn't put too much thought into it as I figured I wouldn't get to use it. Also, the criteria would've been posted on a different forum or hidden somewhere with a date stamp, so that the town knows you're not just making them up AFTER you know the results of the tally. They would later be revealed to town. So I know you can't use this (especially since there's no time for people to accept/veto), but maybe I gave you some ideas. Well he said what I was going on about with mayor a lot more smoothly. Cube has pretty big posts -_- On January 26 2011 05:03 CubEdIn wrote: ^ The post above assumes that mafia are somewhere between 6-8 people (8 would be really imba, but it depends on the clues I guess), and SK are 1-2 people. That's how I made "rough odds" of hitting Mafias. I guess it doesn't work as well if there are only 5 mafia or less, but that would mean that we could clear out mafia based on clues alone, so I am assuming that the number is 6-7. Well this is interesting, but going into to much detail about this will lead to WIFOM. Because there are 5 mafia based on Kav, Cube feels we can find them based on clues and that this wouldn't work as well. Can't really say much else. On January 26 2011 05:30 CubEdIn wrote: Well yeah, I was toying with the veto idea from the start. Greens can also veto if they don't want to be targets and/or attract mafia hits, so in the end it can be a coin-flip, but my idea was that, since we ARE gonna put pressure on two BGs anyway, why not put pressure on a third of the players? It seems like a decent amount to start with. But I digress, it's not gonna work as long as the criteria are public, and it's not gonna work due to lack of time. Which brings me to your Option 6. It looks ok to me, but do we have time to set up a vote? And even if we do, I think it still helps the Mafia more, because they can push someone they want dead as a a BG and hit two birds with one stone. Townies are clueless at this point, so they'll probably random-vote anyway, and it's not like it's "better" that a BG is someone with experience, or something like that, so what criteria would we pick for votes? More BG stuff, disregards veto idea. Not much else. On January 26 2011 05:36 CubEdIn wrote: I'd have to agree with this. Just one thing though: we don't know the Mafia KPs. This is important because: a) If mafia has only 2KPs to start with, they probably won't risk hitting the Vets. This is because with one medic on them, 2KPs will not kill one person, and a night with no deaths is sad for the mafia. This will make them mow down townies until get bored (knowing that a vet is likely not among them), and then handle the vets when needed. b) If mafia have 3KPs or more, then they can easily land 2 on a vet (and if medic protted, then at least they get one life off), and one on someone else. OR, they can just go 3 on a vet and kill him right there. Actually, the 1-town 1-mafia is not so bad because we would lose mayor and kill a red. And after the first night we will know total number of reds so that helps a lot imo. But having the vets revealed, kind-of defeats the purpose of being a vet IMO. I liked that one to cube, and I liked Option 94 where we found out BGs favorite color. On January 26 2011 07:53 CubEdIn wrote: Nobody is denying that. The trick would be to get a Vet as BG without letting everyone (and thus, the mafia) know. That would be by far the best choice for one of the BGs. As for the other one, the Godfather, but that's not gonna happen because GF gets chosen on night 1, and BGs get chosen before that. Jackal before was asking questions about the vet claim I believe, asking over-the-top questions aobut what vet would do. He's either our most obvious townie, or the most diabolically sick-minded mafia I've ever come across. On January 26 2011 09:11 CubEdIn wrote: I'm going to sleep, so no more posts from me for about 8 hours. That being said, I dislike the option of RnG-ing mayor as well. Sorry, but it sounds like something a scum would come up with when their choice of a mayor is not winning. Now, I'm not saying that RoL is red, but maybe both candidates are blue and Mafia is desperately trying to come up with a plan to get a red on the hot chair. I'm not liking it. Maybe if the idea came out sooner, it would work, but now when there are only a few hours left, a good deal of the players won't even have time to catch up. That being said: If the majority decides to follow this, just pretend I picked 2, but I strongly suggest we just take our chances with Kav or RoL. You are right on one behalf though, Mafia would have a FCKTON to gain if they got a red mayor, and the census ability is so so sooooooo easily forged, as it can only truly be verified by mafia. Other numbers won't really come up 'till the very end of the game. To the more experienced players, a question: Were there mafia games where mayor was revealed as scum soon after he was elected? Or does it usually end in tears like when DrH was mayor/scum last time? Haters gonna hate He seems fully aware of what a red mayor could do. But he didn't run, which kinda screws up my assumptions. Kav would have to be red for that. I don't think town has the balls to really confront Kav if he has buddies like Cube with him. Guess we could just pass that option by. On January 26 2011 19:54 CubEdIn wrote: Morning everyone. I scanned over the thread, got one question: Kav, why Beneather? I get GMarshal, but what was your reasoning for the second BG pick? I think it's important that we know, and I didn't see an explanation or him volunteering. I might have missed it, in which case I'm sorry, but I do believe it's crucial information. Also, I believe it's important to know number of SKs. Especially if Mafia turns up 4-5-6 people, because that could mean that there are more than one SK. Basically, in theory, mayor should be safe until at least one of the BGs die. If both BG are mafia (or Mafia+SK) then we lose mayor but get 2 good lynches, which is worth the census ability. So my point is, until at least one BG dies, then we have a bit of wiggle room with the census. Which is why we could use an SK count in night 2, imo. Also, in case you guys didn't notice, black is sort-of a recurrent theme in this game, so we shouldn't put TOO much emphasis on that when analyzing clues. I'm just saying, because this night it says there are no clues, but there are references to black anyway. I think Cube is one of the first one to throw dirt on beneather. That's important to note. Still focused on the BGs, and since kav picked them without much pomp and circumstance... kinda defeated the purpose of most of the discussion during the election. On January 27 2011 00:02 CubEdIn wrote: Mkay. I was asking because you soon after made a strong point about bumatlarge. I'm not denying that bumatlarge seemed scummy, I even said so earlier on, but it looked odd, considering you had power over the first lynch, AND you would like Mafia as BGs, that you neither killed or picked bum as a BG, and instead made a case against him so the town have to use a lynch. That would be interesting to have a DT BG. But I doubt my lifespan would have been very long once the initial FoS wore off. On January 27 2011 23:56 CubEdIn wrote: Yeah it seems so. And Kav said that he got 5 mafias. Now, it doesn't really matter if OM was mafia or not, we can safely assume that there are 5 mafia (kp would be #of mafia / 2 rounded down) and 1 SK. That is, if nobody else comes forward. I'll get to the post/clues analysis later, don't have much time now and it's a sh*tstorm in here anyway, but I wanted to address one issue first: Should census be used for anything else? I mean, if nobody else comes forward then we have a clear number of "reds": 6 (5+1). Which means that we don't really need to know more information at the moment. Kav should have the option to count blues or something, but not to share it with the town, maybe if he was in a town circle or something. I suggest that we use it for mafia numbers, as it's super-important to know if our lynches are on-target. Also, if I'm correct about the KPs and Kav is not lying about the mafia numbers, then we need to kill 2 mafia before we can drop their KP to 1. This may not seem important, but it means that they CAN afford to sacrifice someone to get to the mayor without losing a KP. That is, of course, if a red is among the two BGs Another stab at beneather because of the shitstorm he doesn't post analysis. I havent seen any analysis from cube yet. But I haven't heard anything to condemn him, so im still fairly neutral at this point. On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote: Well, I got a bit more time to check out the thread. I don't like the page-long analysis on one individual. I mean, they would go great in mid-late game when you have like 50-60 posts to choose from and you pick the most incriminating ones, but if you analyze ALL the posts, then you're bound to find a bit of scum in everyone, but nothing very conclusive. That's my opinion on RoL's case at least. So I went back and looked at the clues. Needless too say, nothing obvious this time, but the second person showing up @ Meapak's murder site got me thinking. If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first? I think it's important to know, because if it happened during the first night, it's bound to happen again. Also, I am assuming that if mafia uses 2kp on same target, we will have indications towards two assassins as well, and information that they worked as a team, correct? (that's how it was in the first game of mafia I played). Also, I've been toying with an idea, I want to hear what the town thinks. Since we don't have information about who's what, even after they die, DTs are far more important in this game. So, I think that it's important that DTs play well. Since it's pretty safe to assume that Mafia has only 2kp (I'm thinking that that extra person was at best another SK, and that SiN is not lying, don't see WHY he would), then it's kind-of hard to kill a DT if town stacks medics upon them. That being said, I think DTs who find a red or sk, should immediately come up with it (preferably in a town circle, but since that's less likely, then to town). If we have at least two medics then it would take 3kps to kill DT, and even if they do stack them upon him, then it's probably worth losing 1 dt for 1 red. I'm saying this because if a DT finds someone important, and dies, we won't even know if he had any solid reason to push for whoever he was pushing in the thread. So, the basic idea is that we CAN'T rely purely on census this game. We need some kind of strong circle or something, to make sure that DTs can cooperate fully. That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN. Reasoning: He claimed he was hit. Scenarios: a) He is mafia. He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more. b) He is SK Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway. By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either. c) He is town This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on. The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town. Disagree on the analysis, you have to take everything into consideration, which is what I am doing now. If you say it like "bound to find something scummy" then you are looking for false information. You can do analysis and come up with the outcome of town, and that is enormously helpful. Second part is funny, doubt I need to say agree with you there. I thought siniquity was town then and I do right now. Wish he would talk more. On January 28 2011 05:14 CubEdIn wrote: Well yes, that's why I believe that DT should only claim if they stumbled onto something important. (at the very LEAST to stop lynching a blue or something). So no claims unless it's wroth the risk. And as for SiN in town circle, I don't think that's wise. Mafia will probably try to finish him off, and since he's most likely vet (and thus, not DT), he won't have much to bring to the table in a town circle (other than being the official spokesperson or something lol). But I was just saying, at least we know we have ONE green. Funny how I am doing exactly what cube says and providing fair amount of evidence and still getting shat upon. On January 28 2011 07:51 CubEdIn wrote: Well, the way I see it, mafia will not hit him again. 1) because medics might protect him 2) because he might be SK (highly unlikely) 3) because of WIFOM, that you just pointed out But, assuming that there are 2 mafia kp (lowest we can assume), and 2 SK (not too much if initial setup was 5 mafia + 2sk - reasonable with 31 players), then we are, indeed, missing one hit (2 dead, one guy trailing Meapak = 3, where's the 4th?). And since nobody counter-claimed, it's unlikely that he is lying. As I said, I don't want him to claim, I don't want other people to trust him and put him in circles, etc. I'm just saying, we have very very little information to go by in this game, and since I don't see any possible benefit in the mafia claiming, then it's safest to assume he's town. Think about it, if two people claimed, they would be on the radar instantly. One of them would be very likely to be lying, and SiN said he was hit soon after the post, why would a mafia put themselves on the map like that? In the end it doesn't matter, we're not trusting him with sensitive info, we don't need to lynch him, etc. So we can see what happens, and that's that, but if we ignore things like this, we'll have mostly WIFOM to go by the hole game, and I don't want that. Oh look, the chances of being hit leading to WIFOM, sounds familiar. Cube gives a lot of good advice, but it almost seems like he's not actually in the game lol. On January 28 2011 07:54 CubEdIn wrote: But you are forgetting about the person who was at the site of Meapak's murder. Since we have no "watchers"/"trackers" in this game, it's pretty safe to assume it was someone who wanted to kill meapak. So, I would guess that there are 4KPs in this game, not 3. Unless SiN is lying, then, just three. What's this 4 kp stuff? Must have missed that. On January 29 2011 08:21 CubEdIn wrote: Sup guys? Sorry, but I'm known for not being active during the weekend. I just get home really late, usually. I wanted to post earlier today as well, but, honestly, I don't have much to say. I don't wanna vote for anyone. I'll be honest. Also, I'm not very good at posting 500 word essays about why someone is scum based on a few posts that I picked. So I tried to focus on clues. I have someone in mind, that I would definitely kill if I were SK, or mayor on day 1, or things like that, but there's not nearly enough evidence for me to try and build a case against them. Yet. I will do it if I'll be sure of it, even if it will result in me dying the following night, but I'm saving that for later. As for the clues, I only came up with Nemesis, and that's very weak, based on his picture alone. I don't want him to die, and I don't want RoL to die. I have seen him as town before and he's not ALWAYS super-active and posting, though he will wake up when people try to get rid of him, and post some interesting stuff. However, for now, I don't think he's scum (mostly because if he were, I believe mafia would've tried to get rid of him on day one, AND because he claimed he was role-blocked, why would a scum do that and risk having other people claim as well, put himself on the map?) Coagulation... is just being coagulation. He gets irritated when people seem to disagree or push him, and he just starts raging. Now is not the time though, you said it yourself that this game is super-hard due to lack of info on death, so why are you being anti-town? If you're town, then you have to reason and make people believe that you are town, so that we do not waste a lynch on a green/blue. If you're not town, then by all means, get yourself killed. But don't -possibly- ruin the game for others just because you get pissed off easily. Kav, we really shouldn't kill. Even if he's mafia, there's not much to gain from lynching him first, other than that he could possibly be counting blues and whatnot. But if he's SK, then mafia might go for him, and that might uncover things about BGs. If he's mafia, SK might go for BG and uncover stuff about other SK/Mafia. However, as long as he can't find out which is which, then census is not THAT strong of a weapon for the mafia (strong, maybe, game-breaking, no) So that leaves Nemesis. I don't really want to vote for him, but honestly, I'd rather see him dead than RoL, and his photo does look like a shady/blurry figure, which matches the description of Meapak's murderer. I know it's weak, but I got nothing better, other that maybe voting for coag and have him figure that I must be scum because he "pointed me out" and I panicked, or something. Well finally cube starts giving opinions. First thing I notice, is he isn't accusing anyone, he is defending them all. He even goes as far as to say that if Kav is mafia, we shouldn't lynch him. I think you needed to reword that part. Says lynching RoL isn't great but doesn't trouble himself to stop it if he really thinks that. He's not sold on nemesis either, but hey if it isn't him then whatevs. Gives Coag excuses to be coag. Wow, it took a while but cube might be slipping up a little, that or hes desperate to keep his image of helpful town alive. On January 29 2011 08:24 CubEdIn wrote: Oh, I forgot about Zergling. I'd love to vote for him, check out all my previous games. I hate lurkers. But he's most likely just someone who got green and doesn't care about the game much. Plus, he's probably gonna get mod-killed tonight anyway, so voting for him is just as "safe" as voting for yourself as "placeholder". Please. Oh yeah, this guy, hes town too. Hope thats sarcasm! Barundar's a little ahead of me, but people have been doing worse things in this game then apologizing. On January 29 2011 08:57 CubEdIn wrote: P.S.: You are one of the few who are voting for the guy who'll most likely get mod-killed. Way to "say" something. Feel like Cube is trying to overly-defend himself against a single incriminating line. I'm just gonna give Cube a frowny face for these past fews posts. He could just be trying and failing as town. On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote: Obviously, I'm feeling nervous because so many people are targeting me. I just apologized for lack of activity during this day. You misunderstand. I meant that I would kill someone if I had complete power over one kill. If I were mayor, I'd aim for SK/Mafia. If I were SK I'd aim for other SK/Mafia. So yeah. It doesn't matter what I was (vig would work as well), but if I had a kill of my own, it would be that person. I have, as you'd call it, a hunch. A pretty good one too, but there's no REAL evidence for me to back it up with. If I were to make a case against him, it would be weak. If I were to die the night after I made the case, you guys wouldn't have enough reason to kill said person. So why rush into "analysis" and risk getting killed, when I could make a good case against said person during the next day or two days from now? I already said that Nemesis kinda-sorta-fits the clue about meapak, it's a weak wagon but it's the best I found on my own anyway. I don't know what you mean. I never implied said person was Kav. I just said that it would be the kind of kill I'd make IF I were kav on day one (when he had complete power over lynch). In fact, I don't think he's red, and even if he were, I don't think killing the mayor would be a good Idea. I said this before. This may be a bit hard for you to comprehend, since you said I was "going on" about BGs on day one. But BGs are a crucial part of this game. Here's why: a) Say town lynches a BG. Night can very well be a dead mayor (since other BG may be mafia). We lose census AND we lose the power to see if initial lynch was right. We lynch BG, we have... 1 red for mayor+surprise target. b) Say both BGs are scum Town will go all game in fear of lynching them, and they will run amok. So yeah. If a bg dies, then the next night will tell us A LOT, since I'm pretty sure that if Kav is town, then mafia will go for him. Either by killing other bg, or by 'going around' if they're red. IMO, any BG death will give us useful information, but will most likely also lead us to eventually losing the game because of lack of information about anything. That is true, but I have expressed my thoughts on the lynch targets, and I have expressed opinions about the rest of the game. The only thing I didn't speak about was "post analysis", simply because I'm not good at it. I did talk about behavior analysis, mainly how people played games before this. It's the best I can do at the moment, that and focusing on clues. If you think that's good enough reason to lynch me, then by all means, vote for me. On January 29 2011 10:34 CubEdIn wrote: I don't know, haven't been SK, but I guess it makes sense to go for town because mafia can't kill them. Though, actually, in the beginning it's ok to dim the numbers of mafia as well for some reasons: 1. There will be less mafia -> clues will be pointing more or less to same people -> less people focusing on the SK 2. Team of players will be more likely to convince town to lynch SK, especially if they targeted SK and SK didn't die => They can basically "role-check" you. In fact, it may be more ok to go for mafia in the beginning and drop their numbers to 3 or so, and then focus on town. But I haven't given it too much thought until now. I know what you mean, but I need a bit more time. I promise that you'll understand why if I get to post my analysis. And don't worry about it, I'll post it even if said person dies. However (and this is pointed both to you and gmarshall), I don't understand why you would vote for someone who's gonna get mod-killed anyway. I don't like lurkers either, but that seems like a safe vote that won't attract attention. I get that we should vote for who we feel is right, but your vote is useless unless he posts at the last second, in which case, sure, we lynch him next night. This seems scummier than most of the things that have been held against players so far. I feel like everything I could say is better said by Barundar and I don't think Cube defended himself satisfactorily. On January 29 2011 10:41 CubEdIn wrote: What the fuck Coag? You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating. So either you're: a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore. You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules. Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining. LOL I think someone is mad at coag. It seems like hes trying to defend Coag in a way. On January 29 2011 10:43 CubEdIn wrote: Because he's being a douche. I didn't notice you had 4 votes against you, thought it was less. Then vote for some other player that's not about to get mod-killed. -__- I think saying someone is being anti-town when they are town is a pretty bold statement. 1) Why can't he be mafia in this situation? If he's able to get away with this then he's got a pretty sick meta going on. 2) Are you perhaps defending him from a stupid move because you know his alignment? Do you think he was bound to get lynched if you didn't step in? You're starting to slack Cube, and if that's a mafia team you are defending, you can't be hiing behind bad clues and such anymore. On January 29 2011 11:27 CubEdIn wrote: I would appreciate it if you did not vote for someone who is 99% sure to get mod-killed anyway. yapyap On January 29 2011 11:30 CubEdIn wrote: This seems rather honest to me. The fact is, if he was a mafia trying not to get lynched he would: a) claim medic or vig b) try to get more votes on RoL, instead he's picking me, who was only picked on by one dude so far. It's like.. the least possible scenario to try and get me pushed during the last 2 hours. It can only mean that he's just trying to help town and actually thinks I'm scum. Which is fair enough. He could still be SK, maybe, but I'm gonna take my vote off him. And put it on... ummm... someone else. Nemesis makes a death post, and I agree with cube on some points, that he would claim blue and try to dissuade votes off himself. And was the BB thing an FoS against him or that he thought BB was town? Looking back on it now, BB had his vote on nemesis the entire time, so that's FoS then. Cube takes this finger rather well. On January 29 2011 11:33 CubEdIn wrote: Wait, is the night post being delayed, and the timeline extended, or did it end 30 minutes ago? On January 29 2011 11:38 CubEdIn wrote: Interesting Mr. Wiggles. So you want to make sure that Nemesis dies? Anyway, I'm gonna change to Coag. Here's to hoping that you're a really bad red player. If you are town and you're doing suspicious/scummy moves on purpose, then I'd rather you not be in the game at all, and hope that you get warned by mods. And I'm gonna go sleep. Cheers. Puts his money where his mouth is. If he is on the same team as coag, this is pretty ballsy considering RoL was 7 votes, Nem was 6 and Coag was 5. And an hour and a half before the lynch, so there was time for a few people to switch around. Unless this was an attempted bus (If I was on the same team as Coag, I'd bus him everyday), cube and coag are not both mafia. On January 30 2011 08:22 CubEdIn wrote: Oh right, because voting for someone who was on the modkill list is not scummy at all. Also, I had my vote on "my scumbuddy", until he posted some things that seemed fairly honest, which is when I changed it to you. Or are you implying that it was a master-plan to change my vote after the initial deadline in hope that mods will have moved it, and getting him off right before hang time? In which case, thanks for changing your vote AS WELL and going along with our plan scumbuddy! God your logic sucks. I think coag was referring to zerroth and not nemesis here. Logic often sucks when you misinterpret things. Alright, next up is night 2, let's see what cube's relationship with coag brings today. On January 30 2011 21:41 CubEdIn wrote: Ok so, before we go on, shouldn't we clarify a few things: a) Kav - Please give us the number of Mafias, or whatever you used Census on b) Since there were 2 or 3 hits, we're missing at least one claim c) If there are only 2 KPs, then SiN lied about being hit as well last night. And yes, you do get notified if an attempt has been made on your life. Though, I don't know if both the medic and the player gets the notice. Also, as far as I understand it, there are no clues pointing to SKs as that would be really imbalanced. Also lol @ Coag. If I were mafia I wouldn't need to kill you, you're doing a fabulous job at getting lynched by town anyway. Cheers. Ok, cube just makes some straightforward statements, then calls out coag, nothing out of the ordinary. On January 31 2011 03:26 CubEdIn wrote: Yes it does makes sense, but there's two more scenarios as well. - Mafia and SK both hit people who were protected and/or vets. - Mafia hit SK and SK hit someone who was protected/vet. The fact that nobody posted that they took a hit makes me think that either they are afk or SK took a hit and is being quiet about it, trying to see who will try to out him, as based on my analysis of SK strategies a few pages ago. On January 31 2011 03:28 CubEdIn wrote: That is, of course, if there were 2 SKs, since it's pretty clear that someone did not send in actions. However, actions can also be mason/vig/protect/dt/etc. On January 31 2011 03:51 CubEdIn wrote: Yes, but only Mafia can role-block people, and BrownBear claimed he got RBed. Which means that the mafia DID send in their night hits. It's unlikely that they didn't. I mean, you'd have to have all 5 people offline, otherwise mods would've PMed them or something. And why would BrownBear claim RB? a) he is mafia and trying to confuse the town by putting himself on the radar b) he actually got RBed, which means mafia did send in their actions. You are right about the clues part, but I dunno, maybe Node/LSB decided to put clues about SK BECAUSE he didn't send in night kill. Or maybe they are joking? On January 31 2011 04:00 CubEdIn wrote: yes, but right after you, jackal posted "It is also very possible Mafia was all afk and the SK was the only night kp." So I was trying to cover reply to both with one post. I was thinking that maybe mods were mad at more than just one-two ppl for not sending in actions. And about the clues, they may have placed clues on the SK even tho they are not supposed to, because he didn't send in hits. These are unrelated, they could both be true or neither of them, but I just wanted to clarify what I meant. On January 31 2011 04:34 CubEdIn wrote: If you ask me there are way too many people on the radar, and others are stacking up on them. This no-info-flip is horrible, we have no idea what went down so far. So far we have: - Nemesis (from yesterday) - I still disagree from voting on him because when he thought his faith was sealed, he posted very pro-town. Mafia would try to deflect onto RoL or something, he just doesn't seem like a red to me, sorry, will not vote for him. - Coagulation (from yesterday, he had 5 votes, which is a lot considering that lynch was @7) - I really don't think he's scum, but I think he's a horrible town player with really crappy logic (see post: If I die, kill X, Y, without any good reasoning, that's horrible town play). I don't want to vote for him since it would be very anti-spirit-of-the-game, as I think he's town. But I wouldn't mind seeing him play better - and it's not just me, others said he screwed up multiple times. - Beneather (based on clue analysis) - don't know what to say about him, too little information - Jackal58 (based on clue/posts analysis) - may vote for him, but his retaliation posts do make sense, so he doesn't seem scummy for now - BrownBear (based on the few posts above, might be mafia and fake-claiming so that town doesn't pick the reds from the inactive list) - possible, but unlikely IMO ...and like 5-6 others if you'll listen to Coagulation who obviously knows the entire red team based on strong facts. So yeah, and to think I wanted to bring someone else on the radar and hope to convince enough of the town to lynch them, but with 5+ candidates on the line, it's not gonna happen. GM claimed that hit so the previous stuff is obsolete. Nemesis was pro-town there, I regret not reading more into it. He thinks Coag is town, cube's getting his towny swing on. I like these kinda posts, people should do more of these so we can understand where you are coming from. On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote: Hello everyone. Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours. I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread. First of all, town sucks. Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this. We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help. Here's what I think: a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him". It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav. b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that? If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it. c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him. I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night. Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather? I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail. Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red. WHY DO YOU START POSTS LIKE THIS. Dont be sorry just say you were doing something, it's not as if you can't contribute now and we lose the game now. Other then that, I think he makes good points on the rest of them. I'll get to Beneather in a different post. On February 01 2011 06:05 CubEdIn wrote: P.S.: Kav, here's the thing: As far as I understand, there's no clues towards the SK. Mafia did roleblock BB (according to him). So I think clues are about the mafia. Sk doesn't have clues? I know they sometimes don't but they do have some I believe. On February 01 2011 08:34 CubEdIn wrote: Ok, I agree beneather is not a good kill, even if he is mafia. We do not drop the KPs anyway, and we make an opening to hit the mayor if we're wrong. And I'm not gonna vote for Nemesis, sorry Jackal. On February 01 2011 08:39 CubEdIn wrote: Also, to everyone voting for Nemesis, consider this: Look at his post, and my reasoning below This is not how a mafia posts when he's that close to being lynched. Have you even played this game before? A vig claim, (even though it might be true for jackal), is much more effective at diverting a lynch... here's the proof in tonight's tally.. A strong reason. And I think Jackal isn't mafia now, so I think we should have suggested a new lynch. Of course we start our lynches with clues and then analyze whoever it points to instead of analyizing and then looking for clues on that person. On February 01 2011 19:44 CubEdIn wrote: Not just yet. I'll wait for daybreak post it =P. Also, that was a horrible lynch, I hope to god Nemesis was SK because he sure as hell wasn't mafia. You can still do this Cube, even if I claimed. Please do. On February 02 2011 02:59 CubEdIn wrote: For now it's more important to know if we're correct about lynches. Number of kills were low, so most likely we have 2 mafia KPs and 1 SK. If the number of KPs starts fluctuating inexplicably, then sure, we could, but so far we have no idea whatsoever about who is mafia. A confirmed red kill would allow us to get a lot of information. Basically, if Nemesis wasn't mafia, we have a good deal of information on the people who pushed on him during the past two days. On February 02 2011 03:05 CubEdIn wrote: ...and how will that help town. Oh we have 8 blues, that's AWESOME! Just like the number of SKs, if we find out that there is 1sk or 2sk, how will that help town? At best we'll realize that there are people who did not claim hits, but then what? But if we know if our lynch is correct, it will open up new doors. Cube on the census, he's shooting down reasons as to randomly not check mafia numbers, which is good. Jackal in his innocence seems to always be the one making these suggestions, when I would probably put suspicion on others for it. On February 02 2011 18:50 CubEdIn wrote: Ok, NEWBIES, time for Cube to post. Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now. I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging. Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?) Here are the options: 1) bumatlarge is SCUM Let's start with this one because it's most fun. Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason. Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him. We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*. Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us. Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever. 2. bumatlarge is DT Then he is right about SK. He will help the town further on. There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop. Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that: a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming. Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town. So, let's draw the line and think of options: 1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future 2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values. And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase. On February 02 2011 19:07 CubEdIn wrote: What do you mean? We only knew that he is not red when Kav posted census results. I tried to get him off the lynch several times but nobody cared. As for my analysis, do you really want me to post that now, when we have a clear pick between two people? It was directed at GMarshall and it was about how I think it's 80% sure he is SK or red. Now I got my foot stuck in my mouth, but i'll still post it after we get rid of Lunar and see if he was indeed SK. Not surprised, Cube is a smart person, and regardless of his alignment, he has to believe me in both cases. Funny how GM is is suspect, as it's either him or siniquity that has to be red to make my claim invalid. And he already called sin 90% town. This will shed more light. Overall: Cube is a really tough call. He puts a lot of care and effort into his posts. One variable is Cube and Kav being mafia, which would make sense in the long run, but they have had us by the balls for a while now. If anyone wants to look into that further, I'm willing to help you, but it will be a ton of work and require a very scrutinizingly adept eye on kav's play. I won't go into it if no one thinks that. Cube is red and Kav is not. If I was red as Cube, I would have said a lot of different things, but the nature of his posts certainly lean to this observer townie, who isn't threatened to get hit. He doesn't put himself in situations, and he contributes massive amounts of speculation and has long-winded opinions on eople that don't say much. He would be the smartest of the mafia and he would be playing fairly well from what this caliber of game suggests so far. If Cube is town, then he needs to start getting more vocal about different things. I think he said he was 90% sure GM was sk or mafia. I will tell you Cube's alignment once he confirms it through this analysis. If he doesn't deliver, then he's not playing pro-town. I think I've knocked down one of the bigger posters with this, so I hope it inspires the town to do at least some analysis on people with smaller mouths. Good targets for this are zerroth, jackal, divine, wiggles, papa, kenpachi, darmousseh, eti, siniquity, brownbear, barundar and impervious. If you are in the mood for a challenge, I suggest Coag or lunar. If you are the best townie on the planet, you could do Kav, have fun with that. I'm also a possibility if you'd like to prove a town-aligned player. In fact, do that, and make this easy for town. I think I made sure to put kita in a good light after the first night, since I doubted GF would pick medic. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 03 2011 08:28 Kavdragon wrote: My Case for Bumatlarge v2.0 Contradictions, and Scum slips First off: He shows a lack of opinion as to which mayoral candidate is more scummy: RoL, or I. Entirely true. I don't think this move did anything but put more focus on me. I ended up not minding. Later: (After the vote) If bumatlarge thought that i was more scummy, why would he vote for me?This vote switch shows that he has no opinion about who looks scummier. This is common among mafia, as they know that people are innocent. They don't have to really think about who might be scum, so they don't form opinions about who is scummy or not. It's obvious I didn't trust either of you. I didn't think it was a question of if mafia has a mayor running, it was a question of who. I've explained this before. This is my first clue game, so I wasn't sure how much emphasis could be placed on them. This slipped by me, but since then, I have found Vet's condeming day one clues, I caught it on a re-read. Bum has been around for a long time, so he should know, and does knows better than to rely/put emphasis day one clues. Don't agree? See what the vets say. Bum is an experianced player, has played with these veterans many times, and has certainly heard these arguments before: Ace Ace BloodyC0bbler Ver Ver Of course I was willing to let ON die instead of myself. He could have had no clues on him, and known he was town, and I'd still rather him then a DT. As for clues, they give me something to work with. I don't think I've ever made them my premier point in my analyses or lynch reasons. Never played with Ver I think, Id like to read into that game. This is another thing that struck me as scummy, but I left alone because I figured bum might have just not realized how bad of a plan it was. That was before I knew that bum has played around 15 games of mafia. He should have known, and did know how bad a plan it was. + Show Spoiler [Why it's a bad plan] + The goal is to vote someone into office that is both town alligned, and active. The process of running for mayor runs the candidates through a gauntlet of analysis, because they must submit plans, and opinions, and lots of other stuff that can be analysed. This process helps eliminate inactives, and makes it much, much harder to become mayor as scum. However, it's still possible for an talented and active scum to make it through the process without being suspected by most. With the help of the mafia votes behind him, it's possible for him to become mayor. RNG'ing the mayor has one very good benefit: It cannot be influenced by the mafia. Even vet's have said that it can be useful because of that. The obvious downside is that it's still quite possible to get a scum mayor, and it's also easy to get an inactive mayor. The problem was with the way that Bum set it up: the mafia could still influence the not so random RNG, eliminateing the main benefit of RNG. In addition, he set a deadline for the RNG process that was the same time that the votes were due, meaning that there would be no time at all to switch votes to the chossen person. The plan was also started with only 1.5 hrs till the deadline, and if it had gone through, would have caused a lot of confusion that would have allowed mafia to switch votes at the last second, and get away with it not being noticed. I've already explained this as well. After I read into it, I can't check mayor (which some people are just figuring out) and he controls the death information. I did a good job of bringing attention to it, but I did it too late. I would do it again, but with more time available. I obviously overestimated the activity of town. Everyone has schedules and they can't all be present during the lynch. You call the set-up bad, but only point out the time constraint. If you are really calling me scummy because you think I was trying to sway 20 votes within a few hours, you would be giving me to much credit. I think you should reconsider what's possible within the realm of mafia. Admits that the plan was a bad idea, but says that it it might have worked with a time extension. He didn't ask for a time extension when he brought the plan forward, and didn't ask for it till nearly the end of the day. Why not? Explained this already. I assumed everyone would be around at this time, which was stupid. I thought a time extension would be easy to get, but everyone was on a schedule so I couldn't. You're asking why I didn't ask for it immediately? I didn't think that far ahead. Even he agrees that his play durring that time was scummy. Scummy play from a veteran mafia player? He should know better. He does know better. It's scummy in a painfully obvious way. From what I've seen in this game, people would take it the wrong way. You apparently are. This analysis never came. I would need a good 6 hours to give a similar post on you. I didn't have the time or the willpower. I don't get selective when I take people's posts, so you could imagine what I would have to do with yours. If I make an analysis, I do want to take in their good points as I did with Cube. I don't think your method is better. The only anlyses he has done thus far are on RoL (deemed scum), Nemesis and even here he contradicts himself: He says that Nemesis is an SK, or Mafia in the analysis, but a page or two later, he is "Fairly certain that Nemesis is not Mafia". That's not a quick turn around, that's a contradiction. Oh wow. I don't have an explanation for this. I thought I labelled nemesis as SK and possible town. I guess I did contradict myself or typed that out wrong. My fault. This post is MONEY. He has put the emphasis of his work on clues up to, and past this point. Bum stated several times that he would go to work on clues, and sometimes follow it up with analysis. He CLEARLY puts the emphasis on CLUES. But here he's stating that he believes that "CLUES ARE LAST" in order of importance! He also states that clues don't lead to the profile, profiles lead to the clues. Sound familiar? That's because RoL said the exacte opposite! Cool story bro. I didn't think I was putting emphasis on clues before... I said I would look into clues and then later on in the game I would focus on analysis. Since people have been giving an abundant amount of clue findings, I didn't really go into it. In fact, I think besides RoL, I haven't gone into clues this game. And I said "Profiling" not "Players" there is a huge difference. I said a mafia would run for mayor. That's the general profile. Not a person's TL profile. I don't take someone's profile and look through all the clues to see what matches. Conclusion: Bumatlarge is a Scum at large, and is fake claiming DT to screw the town over. This is my analysis of Bum the Scum, without taking the DT claim into account. This post got too long, so I will post my analysis of his DT claim next. Believe me, it doesn't get any better. You've said this before, but I think you stopped FoSing me for some reason. I'm not sure if I am the inconsistent one among us. I'd love to see what you have to say about me being a DT. LD is 100% Serial Killer, and I don't understand you trying to defend him as town or mafia. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 03 2011 09:30 Kavdragon wrote: The second half of my analysis, as promised: + Show Spoiler [A few edits to the first half + A few minor edits and clarifications that I missed on my read throughs: On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote: lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go. If you kill me, I can guarantee you are red. If you are town, please start thinking about where I am coming from with this. Roughly 24 hours ago, I thought there were 4 candidates. It would be pointless to bring it up. Now there have been two for nearly all of the vote process, I am a little worried. I thought maybe I could get an extension on the time to give this a little more thought and buy that last guy some time. The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation, but maybe with 12 more hours we could get another candidate, and give people more of a choice. I was originally using this to show bad logic, but meant to take it out becaues it's a bad example, and was probably just an emotion based mistake. Within my spoiler on why Bum's plan was bad, I stated that he started it with only 1.5 hours to go. That was a mistake on my part, there were actaully more like 3 hours to go, but doesn't change any of my analysis of the situation. According to this, he KNEW that Benneather was town on day two. So i went back an checked his posts. Yes, he defends Beneather lightly by compareing him to Jackal, but really he's just dragging Beneather into the spotlight at that point. Why draw attention to him if he's clean, and we arn't considering his lynch for the time being? Then he posts this: So you suggested that we lynch someone who you knew to be town? No veteran player would do something like that. Hell, most new players would know not to do that. Wow, Kav you are really putting your rep on the line for this one. Someone suggests hitting you with a vig to check BGs. If yous suspect both BGs that much, then a much cleaner solution is lynching one of them and seeing if mafia is reduced after. I didn't even mention beneather there. This made me look at the possible reasons for a mafia claiming this: Claiming that Kita is Medic: No real reason other than he's dead, and can't be checked. Beneather as Townie: This potentially clears the name of the most suspected scum. LD as SK: This makes the most sense as Mafia, and this is one of the first things that made me question Bum. The one things that has stuck with me out of all the advice I've read from the pros, is that good scum tells are the things that make sense from a mafia perspective, but not from a town perspective. Beneather wasn't going to be lynched, Kita was dead, so the only reason to claim at this point is to call out LD: If LD is SK, he wants to appear as pro-town, and he wants to kill people who are on the winning side. In this case, the Mafia are winning, so he would want to kill them. As long as his cover isn't blown, this is the logical course of action. Once the cover has been blown, he has much less reason to help the town. (It's possible for him to win, but extremely unlikely, so who knows how he might act? ) So why would an experianced townie, someone who must have realized this, call him out? this could only halt or hurt his pro-town, helpful play. In short, it DOESN"T MAKE SENSE FOR A TOWNIE TO DO THIS. To get rid of KP? Yes there is sense in a townie doing this, stop being shortsighted. This extends lylo another day at least, maybe more. Lunar could scumhunt all he wants, but he isn't anymore certain to hit a scum then any vig. Your processing this situation completely wrong. Blatantly ignoring how KP and the days will work from here on out, is not what you want to be doing. KEEPING SK ALIVE IS WHAT MAFIA WANTS. If SK can find scum, then so can a vig. If you were mafia, the town is looking pretty screwed, and the SK will have no choice but to start helping the town if they weren't before. So revealing Lunar as SK makes sense. People say that mafia can't know because all hits are accounted for. This isn't true. The town asked the vig to hit D3, and D3 died that night. We assumed it was the mafia, but there was no logical reason for them to hit D3, it would be much better to hit the vocal persons in the town: Lunar and Me. So they hit lunar, and GMarshal that night. Lunar didn't need to claim the hit, because a vig covered for him. Think about it, why would the mafia hit D3? Yeah, he had a list, but he wasn't a big voice in the town, and his death only drew attention to that list. It makes no sense for the mafia to hit D3. It makes perfect sense for a Vig to hit D3. Conclusion, we have our missing hit, and the mafia know who the SK is. Node clearly states that somebody did not send in their action for that night. The other man didn’t do anything. And because the mods frown on not submitting your night action, we’re giving you clues on him even though he didn’t kill anyone. The vig hit then? He needs to claim then. It has already been pointed out that he reported Beneather as Vanilla Townie. Why would you translate Townie Bodyguard in to Vanilla Townie? Slip up? It seems odd at the least. If necessary I can back this up with Blue Based information, but I'd rather not give out any information about blues that I don't need to. I will say that I'm in the Mason circle though. Well I'm glad you are in a circle that is sharing information with you. They are clearly very trusting and clever. If you know the vig, he should claim. If it's a DT with different information, then I net us an SK and a mafia. I don't lose in this situation. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
[QUOTE]On February 03 2011 09:59 bumatlarge wrote: If I make an analysis, I do want to take in their good points as I did with Cube. I don't think your method is better.[/quote] Wrong, and you should know better. Mafia do good stuff all the time, and when they slip up, you have to be there to point out the slip. You don't spam the thead with the hundreds of good posts that someone has, you point out the parts that are bad. Similarly, you don't point out every little scummy thing that a person did, you only point out the important parts. As mafia, one of the tactics I picked up was analysing every post that someone made. This made the posts hoplessly long, and even if i analysed my scum buddy, no one could stand to read through it. You do NOT need to post everything in an analysis. [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=188179#7]Ver on Long Analyses[/url][/quote] Ok perhaps. I don't think making them longer is a scum tactic, if you let the person see the pattern the person getting analyzed is taking on. When threads get rather large, I'd like to keep at least all their posts easily referenced, so they and others can defend their points made. I feel like focusing on the slips is like focusing on an aspect of a clue. You can make something out of nothing. I'd rather take the post, suggest what I get out of it, and encourage the person reading it to see it either in the same light, or make them realize a varying opinion. I'd like to discuss that further after the game. [quote][quote]Wow, Kav you are really putting your rep on the line for this one. Someone suggests hitting you with a vig to check BGs. If yous suspect both BGs that much, then a much cleaner solution is lynching one of them and seeing if mafia is reduced after. I didn't even mention beneather there.[/quote] Um...Re read what you said. You said we should lynch the more "incriminated one" of the two Bodyguards. The "incriminated one" is obviously Beneather. I never said I suspect GMarshal, and I don't suspect him.[/quote] No, he was taking it hypothetically, if both BGs have FoS, that it seemed using a vig on mayor seemed reasonable. In that situation, I said that it would be better to lynch one of the bodyguards, instead. I was not suggesting to lynch beneather, but since the other BG was hit, and he was not, I do keep my eye on him. I checked him, he's town. He would have to be GF otherwise, which I wouldn't put him as a top candidate for that from what I've seen from his posts. [quote][quote]KEEPING SK ALIVE IS WHAT MAFIA WANTS. [/quote] What? NO. This is Basic third party strategy! The SK wants to keep both sides balaced! Who's ahead in this game? Mafia. Who would the SK want to kill? Mafia. Who would want the SK dead? Mafia. The only time the mafia want the SK is when the town is rolling the mafia, and this is clearly not that case.[/quote] 13 town and 5 mafia. Statistically, unless SK has good scumsense, he will probably not hit mafia. I am town, and I want him dead. I'm not going to go into detail about what he would and wouldn't do. Certain lylo extension versus Non-townie scumhunting abilities. It didn't take me long. [quote][quote]Node clearly states that somebody did not send in their action for that night.[/quote] There were two confirmed hits that night. GMarshal, and D3. Vig hits D3, Mafia hit LD and GMarshal, SK is inactive. Make sense now?[/quote] No it does not. Unless I missed a vig claim, this makes absolutely no sense. Was there something I am missing? I tend to do that so please tell em if I am just being retarded here. [quote]Again and again you make claims about things that are not true. Things that you should know better about. Maybe one of the was an honest mistake, but all of them? What are we supposed to think!? This is the obvious lynch for tomorrow.[/QUOTE] I'm not perfect, but there are some things you aren't clarifying to town. I think you of all people wouldn't assume we will follow you blindly. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 03 2011 14:05 Kavdragon wrote: Wrong, and you should know better. Mafia do good stuff all the time, and when they slip up, you have to be there to point out the slip. You don't spam the thead with the hundreds of good posts that someone has, you point out the parts that are bad. Similarly, you don't point out every little scummy thing that a person did, you only point out the important parts. As mafia, one of the tactics I picked up was analysing every post that someone made. This made the posts hoplessly long, and even if i analysed my scum buddy, no one could stand to read through it. You do NOT need to post everything in an analysis. Ver on Long Analyses Ok perhaps. I don't think making them longer is a scum tactic, if you let the person see the pattern the person getting analyzed is taking on. When threads get rather large, I'd like to keep at least all their posts easily referenced, so they and others can defend their points made. I feel like focusing on the slips is like focusing on an aspect of a clue. You can make something out of nothing. I'd rather take the post, suggest what I get out of it, and encourage the person reading it to see it either in the same light, or make them realize a varying opinion. I'd like to discuss that further after the game. Um...Re read what you said. You said we should lynch the more "incriminated one" of the two Bodyguards. The "incriminated one" is obviously Beneather. I never said I suspect GMarshal, and I don't suspect him. No, he was taking it hypothetically, if both BGs have FoS, that it seemed using a vig on mayor seemed reasonable. In that situation, I said that it would be better to lynch one of the bodyguards, instead. I was not suggesting to lynch beneather, but since the other BG was hit, and he was not, I do keep my eye on him. I checked him, he's town. He would have to be GF otherwise, which I wouldn't put him as a top candidate for that from what I've seen from his posts. What? NO. This is Basic third party strategy! The SK wants to keep both sides balaced! Who's ahead in this game? Mafia. Who would the SK want to kill? Mafia. Who would want the SK dead? Mafia. The only time the mafia want the SK is when the town is rolling the mafia, and this is clearly not that case. 13 town and 5 mafia. Statistically, unless SK has good scumsense, he will probably not hit mafia. I am town, and I want him dead. I'm not going to go into detail about what he would and wouldn't do. Certain lylo extension versus Non-townie scumhunting abilities. It didn't take me long. There were two confirmed hits that night. GMarshal, and D3. Vig hits D3, Mafia hit LD and GMarshal, SK is inactive. Make sense now? No it does not. Unless I missed a vig claim, this makes absolutely no sense. Was there something I am missing? I tend to do that so please tell em if I am just being retarded here. Again and again you make claims about things that are not true. Things that you should know better about. Maybe one of the was an honest mistake, but all of them? What are we supposed to think!? This is the obvious lynch for tomorrow. I'm not perfect, but there are some things you aren't clarifying to town. I think you of all people wouldn't assume we will follow you blindly. EBWOP -_- | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Dont drop the D3 thing Kav, I didn't see notice of a vig claim, so Im assuming you do know something. This is pretty big, because I was fairly certain mafia never took the time to hit lunar, as all the hits had been claimed. I thought my claim would be confirmed since I know LD is SK and mafia couldn't know that without guessing. If a vig hit D3, then it would make sense that mafia knows about LD instead, and my claim loses a lot of credibility. Sigh this changes everything. Now I might have to die. OH HAPPY DAGGER. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 05 2011 03:56 LunarDestiny wrote: I asked the mod to retire me after shooting Beneather tonight (punishing mafia for setting a damn dt/fake roleblock trap for me). So there is high possibility that you guys don't have to worry about my lynch tomorrow. ... It's a shame that I'm still an element in the game so I can't idly comment, but most people here need to develop a different mind-set when playing mafia. You can play SC to win or you can play to get better. Same goes with mafia. It's as if half the people I play with are making the game the be-all end-all of the mafia careers. I'm not referring to meta, but to how you improve your play and how you reap the rewards of your improvement. And it's not LD i'm talking about. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 05 2011 11:43 Kenpachi wrote: oh btw i asked for med protection on bum because i thought he was actually the DT. I voted him because his scum slip was confirmed hahahaha my scum slip that's funny. GO MAFIA FUCK TOWN. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
The roleblock thing I was hoping cube would claim but beneather claiming it was a kinda set back and a blessing. If mods didnt say publicly in the thread that LD got a late PM of something and cube claimed it, I would have argued to high heaven to get LD lynched, and then we still would have had 2 KP. Dont think I could have gotten LD lynched? I got you to lynch RoL, didn't I? yeah But really I should stop trying to be too pro-active as mafia, it never helps us... but it's more fun. I simply did the plan, because I didn't want to win by doing nothing. Even if it's why we lost, i don't really regret it, it was more exciting then sitting their watching town go at each other's throat over clues while idly defending myself from kav. Kav was the MVP by far. No one on town came close, and without him, we would still be in the game, everyone would have though me a DT still and I think it would be lylo. | ||
bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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