EPTTL Mafia XXXV - Page 41
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
| ||
|
Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
| ||
|
Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
~snip + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 07:43 annul wrote: i do not play this game RNG. if this game was entirely RNG then what is the point of playing at all, of analysis, etc? i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. Granted annul's analysis can make sense, and I initially agreed with it, I did not agree with his conclusions of LSB being mafia based on spamminess and some advice he gave. I don't think there is strong enough a case to take out LSB now, and annul's tunneling of him and his aggression hasn't really done much to sway my own opinion. I think we should find someone else to lynch right now, and come back to LSB if he cannot "prove beyond a reasonable doubt" that he is blue once day 2 starts. Other people we may want to consider: Seraph based on RoL's analysis. Brocket based on the strategy of going for lurkers day 1 I'm also not sure what to think of pandain right now based on his recent posts pertaining to the LSB and annul situation. (I'm not sure why, but my [ blue ] tag quit working here) Ah, finally, a clear opinion is reached. Wiggles decides that the whole annul v LSB thing is bull (though he says he agreed with annul's analysis though he never indicated as such earlier). He mentions Seraph and Brocket (candidates put forth by other people), but doesn't reach any clear conclusion regarding who to lynch in this post. Eventually, he ends up moving his vote to Brocket as the last person on that bandwagon. BUT THEN: after voting Brocket, he switches his vote to LSB just before the lynch ends with literally nothing backing it up. Why the hell did he switch to LSB 18 minutes before the vote ended when he thought LSB was town? Why did he switch from Brocket who fit what he was looking for? So many questions, so little answers. I will explain this later. ~snip~ Explain Now Please | ||
|
GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
On December 31 2010 04:21 Pandain wrote: Alright sup ya'll. Tonight was good, and bad. It was good because we didn't lose any blues and I didn't die, but it was bad because we lost alot of really good people. But right now what we have to be doing is getting all these inactives to talk. Until these people post a good post, or start to really help, FoS on them. Opz George CLooney Shockkey Ryu/DArthien\ Brockett(another) Orgolove Right now I'm going to be voting Orgolove, but these people we should especially keep an eye on Why Orgolove? HE claims he's been busy during the holidays but not posting, but really, he's way TOO quiet. I mean, he's always super spammy/agressive, and even the holidays he wouldn't have been this busy. Let's see his posts: States the obvious, already said. Accuses people who try to get people to talk. Note that Orgo says we should be focusing on trying to find red's, but orgolove hasn't done ANYTHING. This is all he says. A short while after LSB died. Now, what does this post do? First of all orgolove barely did anything, and he's immediately apologizing for getting it wrong. This is a very obvious scum tell if I'm correct, and he still hasn't really contributed. He has obviously had time to read the thread, at different points during the day. There is no reason why he should not be contributing more unless he was red. I forgot to mention orgolove in my earlier post, but his posts, as few as they've been, also stirred up my suspicions. I'd like to point out in particular this line: " I'm especially looking at LSB right now, given his past track record and his current behavioral patterns." This is the sort of thing that a mafia says to seem like they analyzing but it's really just fluff. What past track record? What current behavioral patterns? Explain what you mean or it's worthless. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On December 31 2010 04:21 Pandain wrote: Alright sup ya'll. Tonight was good, and bad. It was good because we didn't lose any blues and I didn't die, but it was bad because we lost alot of really good people. But right now what we have to be doing is getting all these inactives to talk. Until these people post a good post, or start to really help, FoS on them. Opz George CLooney Shockkey Ryu/DArthien\ Brockett(another) Orgolove Right now I'm going to be voting Orgolove, but these people we should especially keep an eye on Why Orgolove? HE claims he's been busy during the holidays but not posting, but really, he's way TOO quiet. I mean, he's always super spammy/agressive, and even the holidays he wouldn't have been this busy. Let's see his posts: States the obvious, already said. Accuses people who try to get people to talk. Note that Orgo says we should be focusing on trying to find red's, but orgolove hasn't done ANYTHING. This is all he says. A short while after LSB died. Now, what does this post do? First of all orgolove barely did anything, and he's immediately apologizing for getting it wrong. This is a very obvious scum tell if I'm correct, and he still hasn't really contributed. He has obviously had time to read the thread, at different points during the day. There is no reason why he should not be contributing more unless he was red. I agree with your analysis of Orgolove, especially about the last part being a major scum tell. | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On December 31 2010 05:03 Barundar wrote: Mr.zergling would you mind posting your reason for voting mr.wiggles? And why you pick hin over the other suggested targets? I thought his last 18min switch to LSB was strange, but thats been noted. I think I am changing to Orgo after reading GGQ's analysis, but I think Ill give him time to respond before i change my vote again | ||
|
Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On December 31 2010 04:42 Mr.Zergling wrote: + Show Spoiler + ~snip + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 07:43 annul wrote: i do not play this game RNG. if this game was entirely RNG then what is the point of playing at all, of analysis, etc? i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. Granted annul's analysis can make sense, and I initially agreed with it, I did not agree with his conclusions of LSB being mafia based on spamminess and some advice he gave. I don't think there is strong enough a case to take out LSB now, and annul's tunneling of him and his aggression hasn't really done much to sway my own opinion. I think we should find someone else to lynch right now, and come back to LSB if he cannot "prove beyond a reasonable doubt" that he is blue once day 2 starts. Other people we may want to consider: Seraph based on RoL's analysis. Brocket based on the strategy of going for lurkers day 1 I'm also not sure what to think of pandain right now based on his recent posts pertaining to the LSB and annul situation. (I'm not sure why, but my [ blue ] tag quit working here) Ah, finally, a clear opinion is reached. Wiggles decides that the whole annul v LSB thing is bull (though he says he agreed with annul's analysis though he never indicated as such earlier). He mentions Seraph and Brocket (candidates put forth by other people), but doesn't reach any clear conclusion regarding who to lynch in this post. Eventually, he ends up moving his vote to Brocket as the last person on that bandwagon. BUT THEN: after voting Brocket, he switches his vote to LSB just before the lynch ends with literally nothing backing it up. Why the hell did he switch to LSB 18 minutes before the vote ended when he thought LSB was town? Why did he switch from Brocket who fit what he was looking for? So many questions, so little answers.[/blue] I will explain this later. ~snip~ Explain Now Please[/QUOTE] You would have seen the explanation if you had read through the full post. I was pressured by Pandain, and looking back, a lot of LSB's posts seemed to be either inconsistent or insubstantial, so I wasn't sure how much it would help town if he was still around with annul. We wouldn't be generating any new discussion, we would still be stuck on the LSB/annul argument. That was my reasoning at the time. | ||
|
Mr.Zergling
United States141 Posts
On December 31 2010 05:10 Mr. Wiggles wrote: [/blue](I'm not sure why, but my [ blue ] tag quit working here) Ah, finally, a clear opinion is reached. Wiggles decides that the whole annul v LSB thing is bull (though he says he agreed with annul's analysis though he never indicated as such earlier). He mentions Seraph and Brocket (candidates put forth by other people), but doesn't reach any clear conclusion regarding who to lynch in this post. Eventually, he ends up moving his vote to Brocket as the last person on that bandwagon. BUT THEN: after voting Brocket, he switches his vote to LSB just before the lynch ends with literally nothing backing it up. Why the hell did he switch to LSB 18 minutes before the vote ended when he thought LSB was town? Why did he switch from Brocket who fit what he was looking for? So many questions, so little answers. I will explain this later. ~snip~ Explain Now Please You would have seen the explanation if you had read through the full post. I was pressured by Pandain, and looking back, a lot of LSB's posts seemed to be either inconsistent or insubstantial, so I wasn't sure how much it would help town if he was still around with annul. We wouldn't be generating any new discussion, we would still be stuck on the LSB/annul argument. That was my reasoning at the time.[/QUOTE] I ffffail at reading comp, I read that as explain later in time, not in post >.< | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
Maybe after we finally get some discussion going we can actually have some candidates for double lynching. | ||
|
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
We have 2 double lynch total in the game. As the game continues, we will get more information on who to lynch. But we are too many losing experience players too soon. Mafia will have an easier time to defer lynch when we have an inactive, indecisive town. | ||
|
LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
On December 31 2010 04:24 Pandain wrote: GGQ 4. Meapak_Ziphh 5. Brocket 6. TheMango 7. Mr.Zergling 8. why 15. ShoCkeyy 17. ilovejonn 19. Orgolove 23. GeorgeClooney 24. d3_crescentia 25. Tevo 27. Soulfire 29. Ryuu314 DarthThienAn 30. ~OpZ~ These are the people who need to contribute more. Lyching Insanious is a horrible idea. For one, why would mafia redirect a lynch away from a blue. Now, gaining town cred is important, but why would Insanious not just go afk during that period, which would've been far better. Furthormore, he has been posting ALOT, constatnly trying to generate discussion. Mafia don't want that, they want discussion to stagnate. Finally we don't want to lynch the super actives just yet, especially when we don't think they're scum. From this list, I personally want to hear more from Orglove and OpZ. I know they played many mafia games before and they are also very hard to analysis because they don't give too many analysis on the game. Please tell us what you think so far in the game and who you think is suspicious. | ||
|
~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
On December 30 2010 18:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Alright. So I am tired of this town being wishwashy so much. Tomorrow before I go to work I am going to decide on a lynch target. We are going to kill them, if I am wrong you guys can kill me if you so wish it. The thing is I will chose my target, I will push them relentlessly, and I will be right. I will most likely choose one of the three mentioned before, but it is going to be large analysis followed by a relentless attack until I get my way. I see three candidates going out right now with some shitty stupid reasoning. I will examine every person being suggested right now and decide which one is best. I welcome all who oppose me. Let's kill Seraph, per your post about him. Insanious mentioned him, iirc but he came up with Brockett instead of siding with your decision of Seraph. I'm not too fond of the Seraph idea, but I would like your opinion on Pandainm RoL. I've been pming him, but we haven't talked much the last day. On December 30 2010 14:54 Insanious wrote: Meapak_Ziphh you, just like RoL make a huge mistake. I was not 100% sure LSB was blue. I was 100% sure he was either blue or red... Either he proves he's blue. He lives. He doesn't, he dies. This could of happened on night 3, wouldn't of hurt the town at all. It could of only helped by saving a blue for more nights, or saved a blue for the rest of the game. Litterally no down side for the town... so we should of waited. I would of killed him instantly on day 3 if I wasn't 100% sure he was blue. Waiting helped the town, killing him gave us nothing. This is what I was saying... there was no point where I KNEW he was blue. And there was no point that I said I was 100% sure he was blue until after he died... Read my posts, and don't put words in my mouth. The problem is mobilizing the town to kill someone. L had gotten himself out of millions of lynches, but just popping up with a new target. While you may have been all for it, we can't possibly be certain of anything. I'd be fine lynching any of RoL's "certain" suspects. It's a nice idea, and clearly with how much it has been blatantly ignored, I'm fine to follow it. He has some decent point, and why is it that this is one game no body listens to him? I mean, dudes been on a streak with Day One Mafia finds. | ||
|
~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
On December 31 2010 06:00 Insanious wrote: Double lynch after day 1 seems a little soon... I mean, we might as well wait till day 2 to see if we can actually get some analysis done. We don't even have a single target for lynching right now, let alone two for a double lynch. Maybe after we finally get some discussion going we can actually have some candidates for double lynching. Seems like a good decision to me if Seraph or you wind up being mafia....Don't you think? | ||
|
~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
On December 31 2010 04:20 GGQ wrote: I feel that I should reveal this information since mafia already knows it; I was roleblocked last night. I just read through the entire thread again and here are my thoughts: -Pandain doesn't seem like scum to me, just a flip-flopping townie. -Brockett narrowly avoided a lynch and still hasn't contributed anything. Much fewer posts and different posting style than his townie play in Pokemafia -I'm still suspicious of TheMango but don't have solid reasoning for it -I am pretty confident that ROL is town, but I dont necessarily agree with all his picks for mafia -Insanious doesn't seem scummy to me. People keep saying that he was 'so sure' LSB was blue, but if you actually read his posts, that's not what he was saying -I'm on the fence about annul. I always thought his tunneling on LSB was stupid, but that doesn't make him mafia. He certainly could be, though -I'm most suspicious atm of Seraph (as ROL pointed out) and Mr Wiggles. While reading, I noticed that all of Mr Wiggles posts are riddled with uncertainty, fear, and unwillingness to commit. He may be a newer player, but it still makes me very susicious of him. My vote goes on him for now GCQ has slid over to my likely town. I would also like to not, RoL is not without suspicion in my eyes. I'm just willing to see were his idea leads us. On December 31 2010 05:03 Barundar wrote: Mr.zergling would you mind posting your reason for voting mr.wiggles? And why you pick hin over the other suggested targets? Would you mind pming me back? Everyone wants me to post, and be active, okay. Fine. I was content just reading, but if you would like to see all my thoughts, I'll start posting a few of them. On December 31 2010 04:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I just finished reading all of Annul's posts and I feel a little ashamed of myself. Why? Didn't you promise to be active all day today....Because you didn't work? | ||
|
seRapH
United States9756 Posts
On December 27 2010 13:45 Soulfire wrote: Few points here: He’s new, he doesn’t want to out himself, and hands lurkers the excuse of not caring. First point isn’t incriminating, but the other two are pretty notable.I had meant to contribute earlier, but I was watching some streamed games of my team's CW. I'm a new player, so for the most part I've just been reading what everybody has said thus far and trying to come up with any reasonable conclusion, which not surprisingly has been futile. I've gone over previous games and observed common posting habits for many of the more veteran players in this game and I honestly don't notice anything alarming enough to begin to point fingers safely. I'd definitely have to agree with Pandain, Wiggles and others; focus attention on the inactives, but struggle to differentiate between those who just don't care and are probably going to be modkilled and people who are trying to lay low, specially people making pointless posts to avoid the modkill. But I will speak for other players who are new like I am, it is difficult to post something that contributes in Day 1 - so yet another thing to differentiate: new players who are lost and can only agree with others, and mafia trying to slip under the radar and avoid modkill. On December 27 2010 18:01 Soulfire wrote: Ok, fine, Pandain wagon was bullshit, I have no clue why anyone joined it at all, town or not. What I do find interesting is that apparantly Pandain is "pretty damn helpful" while LSB, evidently, has not been.Yet another vote for Pandain - can you guys seriously stop that? There's no reason to be doing that, and the only thing we know about him thus far is that he's been pretty damn helpful, and past games show that he knows what he's doing. There's no reason to be piling votes on people, and new players will just be prompted to join the bandwagon. On December 28 2010 14:22 Soulfire wrote: I don’t really get this. I’m thinking that if we can get Soulfire lynched or nightkilled then annul can be cleared of most suspicions. Once again he pushes lynching lurkers too. Also, people don’t switch roles midway (or at least not in this setup), so a change in character indicates they’re either dodging an accusation or real life problems.Just read the last 5 pages, and like many others, paid attention to the argument between Annul and LSB. BOTH come off as scummy, but to be totally honest I think it's a safer bet to go with a lurker, for the same reasons that many have said - the more talkative a scum is, the more likely he is to make a mistake and thus be lynched. We have NOTHING to go by other than very slight hints in posting style. Our best bet easily is to lynch a lurker because they may continue lurking later on, and we won't be able to gather any hints from them that may identify them as scum. However, Annul and LSB will both continue posting frequently, thus increasing the chance that they may make mistakes and reveal themselves. If they all of a sudden STOP posting frequently, that'd be out of the character developed on day 1 and would be a pretty strong hint that they're scum. Just my 2 cents. On December 29 2010 08:19 Soulfire wrote: Completely dodges the LSB/Annul situation by going for a new bandwagon on brocket. Also staying under the radar by following pandain quite closely:I've been on the whole "lynch LSB" bandwagon, but after reading Pandain's logic, even though it makes HIM sound incredibly scummy as well the the information fishing, I'm gonna vote for Brocket. When I read over Pokemafia he indeed acted quite differently, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was trying to hide under the radar. But yeah, Pandain really strikes me as a mafia trying to save LSB - but then again, is there any way to protect someone WITHOUT appearing suspicious? Atleast he presents a logical argument. If LSB does not "prove himself", LYNCH HIM ON DAY 2. On December 29 2010 11:36 Soulfire wrote: Gonna actually have to agree with Pandain's analysis here, I didn't think of it the way he put it: We don't have much to go on, so we might as well guarantee important information with a lynch of LSB. ##Unvote ##Vote LSB Conclusion: Very likely scum. Not too many posts at all, and none of them offering any original insight. imo this is a better lynch than anyone else so far, but Mr Wiggles earns second place. If Soulfire dodges the lynch then I’d at least like someone to DT check him. | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
ilovejonn
Canada2548 Posts
| ||
| ||
