EPTHe's too happy.
Pick Your Power Mafia 2! - Page 32
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
He's too happy. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Therefore, it seems a no-brainer to lynch one of the first 4 players. Seems highly likely that Rastaban is the CV, unless both him and Hesmyrr are lying(Hesmyrr went for CV). Since CV is not a threat if we know where it is, he's off the list. That leaves picks 2-4. The most dangerous player there right now is pick #3. If LSB is mafia, and took PoD according to the plan(which he likely would if mafia), then chances are he will use it tonight. With all the focus being on picks 2-4, there is a very good chance he will get found out in the next day or so. Hence, if mafia, he will use the power tonight. What I'm saying here, is that if we accept that picks 2-4 are equally likely to be the traitor, then we should lynch pick 3, solely for the additional reason that if mafia, he is extremely dangerous, and will likely use his power tonight(so time is of the essence on the lynch). Thoughts? | ||
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
On August 26 2010 05:42 SouthRawrea wrote: He has time to write all that but not say yes or no? I think the answer we're looking at is not yet. Or the answer could more than just a yes/no. | ||
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rastaban
United States2294 Posts
On August 26 2010 06:00 Radfield wrote: I feel like some people are assuming SR has an equal chance of being mafia or town. In my eyes, SR is far more likely town then mafia, which means there is likely a traitor in the top 5 players. Also, given that we likely have 5 anti-town players in the game, odds are there is also probably either a mafia or SK in those top 5 players as well. Not to mention that there is little risk of players 1-4 being good pro-town roles. Therefore, it seems a no-brainer to lynch one of the first 4 players. Seems highly likely that Rastaban is the CV, unless both him and Hesmyrr are lying(Hesmyrr went for CV). Since CV is not a threat if we know where it is, he's off the list. That leaves picks 2-4. The most dangerous player there right now is pick #3. If LSB is mafia, and took PoD according to the plan(which he likely would if mafia), then chances are he will use it tonight. With all the focus being on picks 2-4, there is a very good chance he will get found out in the next day or so. Hence, if mafia, he will use the power tonight. What I'm saying here, is that if we accept that picks 2-4 are equally likely to be the traitor, then we should lynch pick 3, solely for the additional reason that if mafia, he is extremely dangerous, and will likely use his power tonight(so time is of the essence on the lynch). Thoughts? Well I think at the very least we need a plan for me since we won't get a vote on who I should hit if we don't get another day phase.. hmmm actually if that occurs we can still talk during night phase, I assume, so it won't matter we can vote then and I can just hit #3 with my hit if it happens. | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 26 2010 06:11 Hesmyrr wrote: I don't understand the argument. There are likely traitor among #2~4, and we lynch #3 b/c he picked PoD (not traitor)? What? What I'm saying is: Lets assume all three spots have an equally likely chance of being the traitor. So how do we decide which player to lynch? We have to look at other factors to differentiate between the spots. The other factor I think we should look at is "What player can hurt us the most by being mafia?". In my eyes, a mafia PoD is the worst, particularly in the short term. Yes a Bad Santa mafia can deal some damage, but only over time and we should be able to figure out if the Bad Santa role gets used. Does this make sense? I'm not sure if I'm doing a great job explaining. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Joat: Here's the way I think you should use your powers. Night One: Investigate If you find a mafia, then Shoot him on Night 2 If you find a townie, then Talk to whomever you think is most pro-town and reveal the info on Night 2 Night Three: Protect We'll likely have some public investigative roles who need protection by now. Night Four leaves you with either Shoot or Talk. I recommend holding your shot until an investigative role finds a red. Talk can obviously be used at your discretion. Rolecop should check Zeks tonight as we need to see if he is the traitor without shooting him. Bullet Bill should check Pandain Tracker should check Bumatlarge I pick up scummy vibes from both these players. If people disagree that's fine, needs to be discussed. Doctors should be weighting their protection between zeks, picks 14-16(likely trackers) and then slightly less on 11-13. 7-10 should be fairly protected via their likelyhood of having Vet, BP or Meth Man. Bad Santa: Chaoser, assuming you are town aligned and picked Bad Santa, keep in mind that you have a fairly good investigative role. Since we all know you are the Bad Santa, you should be providing your list to the town right off the bat. You have 5 people on the list, if one dies and you don't get the option to shoot, it makes the others on the list more likely to be townies. You should keep your list to yourself for now(so mafia/sk can't abuse it) and reveal it at a time when you think we can glean some useful info from it. The rest of the roles can do whatever they want. + Show Spoiler [ unrelated] + I feel like I've just realized why the Martyr role is kinda good, in that it allows an investigative role to claim and still get a decent measure of protection. | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 26 2010 06:00 Radfield wrote: That leaves picks 2-4. The most dangerous player there right now is pick #3. If LSB is mafia, and took PoD according to the plan(which he likely would if mafia), then chances are he will use it tonight. With all the focus being on picks 2-4, there is a very good chance he will get found out in the next day or so. Hence, if mafia, he will use the power tonight. Thats assuming I am mafia. But the fact is, as town, I'm not going to use my ability. Unless you give me an extremaly compelling reason. I will not use it. Hypothetical, say I was mafia and I followed your plan. Boom! I get revealed. I die. That's a pretty bad plan for the mafia What I'm saying here, is that if we accept that picks 2-4 are equally likely to be the traitor, then we should lynch pick 3, solely for the additional reason that if mafia, he is extremely dangerous, and will likely use his power tonight(so time is of the essence on the lynch). However, the thing is, 2-4 are NOT equally likely to be the traitor. Check out my post. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=141431¤tpage=29#575 I claim that Spot 4 is the most likely to be traitor. | ||
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Subversion
South Africa3627 Posts
I guess day 1 lynch is always a little bit of a crap shoot though. Can someone tell me concisely why we going for him? | ||
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Subversion
South Africa3627 Posts
On August 26 2010 08:57 LSB wrote: Thats assuming I am mafia. But the fact is, as town, I'm not going to use my ability. Unless you give me an extremaly compelling reason. I will not use it. Hypothetical, say I was mafia and I followed your plan. Boom! I get revealed. I die. That's a pretty bad plan for the mafia However, the thing is, 2-4 are NOT equally likely to be the traitor. Check out my post. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=141431¤tpage=29#575 I claim that Spot 4 is the most likely to be traitor. Was this supposed to be some kind of soft claim? Doesn't the fact that you need a "compelling reason" imply that you have something you can only use once, or something along those lines? | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
Role claims:
Assumptions:
So there's a traitor in the range of (1-5), and with no dead giveaway it's up to random chance. There's a couple of ways to go about this. One way is based on impact to town (assuming the roleclaims are true):
The other is based on likelihood. That is, running under the assumption that everyone was following the plan, who could "slide under the radar" the best?
That being said, Hesmyrr seems like the logical choice to lynch. However, given the majority lynch rule, I'm withholding my vote until tomorrow. | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
On August 26 2010 05:42 SouthRawrea wrote: He has time to write all that but not say yes or no? I think the answer we're looking at is not yet. On August 26 2010 06:04 Fishball wrote: Or the answer could more than just a yes/no. At home now. I was on lunch break when I wrote the longer post, smart ass. Yes, I do know about the plan. I know it's 33% between CV, Bad Santa or PoD for the fourth draft, but to me at least, CV is guaranteed to be gone. It is one of the more powerful and interesting roles, regardless of alignment, when compared to others. Technically, I would only choose between Bad Santa or PoD, which increases my chance to actually land a blue role, as these two roles are somewhat less interesting (if you are not Mafia) compared to CV. Also, as the first pick, you just have to take CV. Let's say you are Townie, and you don't pick CV; When the town asks you to hit someone and you can't, you're just drawing unnecessary suspicion to yourself, and would most likely end up wasting the towns' resource, or worse, getting yourself lynched. If Mafia/SK doesn't pick CV, and they can actually hit whatever target the town wants them to, that would also be bad since the real CV would know they are lying. This is all probability, but that's just how I see it. It might sound like I'm accusing Hesymrr in my other post due to my wording, but I'm simply questioning his motives behind picking CV. Is it just random, random? Or is there actually more reasoning behind the decision. I realized I was being a bit redundant. Who would confess the second time if a person lied the first time, especially when he is not caught? Anyways, the explanation above is where I'm coming from. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On August 26 2010 09:00 Subversion wrote: I don't really understand why we're voting for Hesmyrr? I guess day 1 lynch is always a little bit of a crap shoot though. Can someone tell me concisely why we going for him? He has the most incentive to be the Traitor (his role is probably going to be vanilla anyways, sounds boring) He has the best cover (he easily can claim vanilla) On the off chance that it is a Mislynch, his death confirms that Choaser is not the Traitor. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 26 2010 09:07 Fishball wrote: At home now. I was on lunch break when I wrote the longer post, smart ass. Yes, I do know about the plan. I know it's 33% between CV, Bad Santa or PoD for the fourth draft, but to me at least, CV is guaranteed to be gone. It is one of the more powerful and interesting roles, regardless of alignment, when compared to others. Technically, I would only choose between Bad Santa or PoD, which increases my chance to actually land a blue role, as these two roles are somewhat less interesting (if you are not Mafia) compared to CV. Also, as the first pick, you just have to take CV. Let's say you are Townie, and you don't pick CV; When the town asks you to hit someone and you can't, you're just drawing unnecessary suspicion to yourself, and would most likely end up wasting the towns' resource, or worse, getting yourself lynched. If Mafia/SK doesn't pick CV, and they can actually hit whatever target the town wants them to, that would also be bad since the real CV would know they are lying. This is all probability, but that's just how I see it. It might sound like I'm accusing Hesymrr in my other post due to my wording, but I'm simply questioning his motives behind picking CV. Is it just random, random? Or is there actually more reasoning behind the decision. I realized I was being a bit redundant. Who would confess the second time if a person lied the first time, especially when he is not caught? Anyways, the explanation above is where I'm coming from. The reason we felt it was important to put CV in that list of roles pick #4 should go for, is the possibility of a mafia at pick #1. If Mafia get pick #1, they can let the CV role slip down to another mafia at a lower pick. All of a sudden mafia KP gets doubled, and we have no idea who has the CompVig Role. By having Pick #4 randomize between the first 3 picks, it made it more risky for the mafia to employ this strategy. Siniquity raises a good point, Hesmyrr is more likely to be the traitor given that he has much better cover. Both pick #2 and pick #3 run a decent chance of getting immediately caught by pick #4. Hesmyrr also has his history of being very against a traitor role, which also adds to his cover. He's a strong player though, and a loss to the town if he flips green. Also, we should give suggestions to the SK on who he should hit. SK should be playing pro-town right now, and should be eliminating shady characters, or inactive players. | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On August 26 2010 08:35 Radfield wrote: Bullet Bill should check Pandain Tracker should check Bumatlarge I pick up scummy vibes from both these players. If people disagree that's fine, needs to be discussed. well im getting those vibes from them too. Not just cause bum voted for me either, he just always tries to push for my lynch. But he tries to make the posts he does when he is mafia. He was convinced i was a vanilla townie and still wanted to lynch me, like wtf that is not part of the win condition and does not provide town with any info except i was a wreckless person who wanted to kill bm cmon you're lying if you arent happy he died at least a little. pandain well, pandain is just that way since he's 14 years old. I think he comes off as scummy even when he doesn't mean to. This is not a real reason to dismiss him though since he can of course come off as scummy when he is in fact scum as well! sadly i doubt we could put any real pressure on these two with solid justifcation (as far as votes go, today), but they are good targets for our PR's that can give us info or something. But i do like opz's heart! he always knows what's going on. anyways im definitely behind your idea on using those two roles on those two players what do others think? ill probably hold onto my vote cuz majority, would it be wrong to use bum as a place holder because my net has been dodgy cause im tempted as far as the actual matter at hand, im having a hard time landing on either of our potential targets to be a better choice than the other. Going off reads based more on reason that is at least. Hesmyrr certainly seems more reasonable, but im definitely down for lynching someone from this selection because i have a feeling we'll find out more info as we pick apart these roles from the weird shit that's been going on. at least i hope | ||
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